Feel free to file this away and throw it in my face if it proves to be wildly inaccurate, but this year's Oscar races are looking a lot clearer than they usually do at this stage of the process. All of the acting categories save for Best Actor already appear to be down to fields of seven or eight contenders for the five nominations while Best Picture is starting to look like a two-horse race between Christopher Nolan's The Odyssey and Spanish epic drama La bola negra-which is aiming to become Netflix's first ever BP winner. Why does there appear to be so much certainty compared to the last few years where chaos reigned? I'm not quite sure, but so many heavy hitters either debuting at Cannes in May or releasing before the fall certainly feels like it played a role.
It needs to be noted that despite my belief that the field already feels relatively settled, there are still a handful of potential contenders out there including Dune: Part Three, The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth, Werwulf and The Mosquito Bowl that have yet to screen publicly that have the potential to shake up the landscape if they generate enough fanfare. With that important caveat now out of the way, here are my way too early predictions for the 2026 Oscars excluding Best Original Song and the Short Film categories.
*Indicates the predicted winner
Best Picture:
All of a Sudden
The Debut
Dune: Part Three
Fjord
The Invite
La bola negra
Obsession
The Odyssey*
Project Hail Mary
Wild Horse Nine
Best Director:
Javier Ambrossi and Javier Calvo, La bola negra
Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine
Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey*
Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three
Olivia Wilde, The Invite
Best Actor:
Matt Damon, The Odyssey
Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary
John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine*
Robert Pattinson, Primetime
Andrew Scott, Elsinore
Best Actress:
Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden
Sandra Hüller, Rose
Julianne Moore, The Debut*
Inde Navarrette, Obsession
Olivia Wilde, The Invite
Best Supporting Actor:
Andrew Garfield, Artificial
Paul Giamatti, The Debut*
Guitarricadelafuente, La bola negra
John Leguizamo, The Odyssey
Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine
Best Supporting Actress:
Penélope Cruz, La bola negra
Mariana di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine
Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey*
Samantha Morton, The Odyssey
Tao Okamoto, All of a Sudden
Best Adapted Screenplay:
All of a Sudden
The Invite
La bola negra*
The Odyssey
Project Hail Mary
Best Original Screenplay:
Artificial
Fjord
The Debut
Obsession
Wild Horse Nine*
Best Animated Feature:
Forgotten Island
Ray Gunn
Tangles
Toy Story 5
Wildwood*
Best Documentary Feature:
American Doctor
NAZA
Nuisance Bear
Once Upon a Time in Harlem
You Can See Everything*
Best International Feature:
All of a Sudden
Fjord
La bola negra*
Minotaur
Possible Love
Best Casting:
The Debut
La bola negra
Obsession
The Odyssey*
Wild Horse Nine
Best Cinematography:
Dune: Part Three
La bola negra
The Odyssey*
Project Hail Mary
Werwulf
Best Film Editing:
Dune: Part Three
La bola negra
The Odyssey*
Project Hail Mary
Wild Horse Nine
Best Original Score:
Behemoth!
Disclosure Day
Dune: Part Three
The Odyssey*
Project Hail Mary
Best Costume Design:
Dune: Part Three
The Odyssey*
Sense and Sensibility
Werwulf
Wuthering Heights
Best Makeup and Hairstyling:
Digger
Dune: Part Three
Michael
The Odyssey
Werwulf*
Best Production Design:
Backrooms
Dune: Part Three
The Odyssey*
Project Hail Mary
Werwulf
Best Sound:
Dune: Part Three
Godzilla Minus Zero
Michael
The Odyssey*
Project Hail Mary
Best Visual Effects:
Dune: Part Three
Godzilla Minus Zero
The Odyssey
Project Hail Mary*
Spider-Man: Brand New Day