Wild Card Record: 4-2 (Correct: Rams, Bears, Patriots, Texans Incorrect: Jaguars, Eagles)
Buffalo Bills over Denver Broncos:
What the Bills did last Sunday in Jacksonville was pretty remarkable. Even though their prolific rushing attack was stifled by the Jags top-ranked rush D and already dire pass-catcher scenario got even worse when Gabe Davis tore his ACL in the second half, a visibly dinged-up Josh Allen and their much-maligned defense stepped up to lead them to a tough win. The grit they displayed against a Jags team that was widely viewed as the most well-rounded team in the AFC heading into the playoffs should serve them well against the Broncos.
My feeling heading into the playoffs was that if the Bills could beat the Jags, they had an excellent chance of making it to the Super Bowl. Allen played like a guy who knows this is the clearest path to the Super Bowl he's ever had in his career last week and that motivation to finally get the chance to play for a ring after years of falling short is the kind of powerful force that can drive special runs. After the Pats beat the Chargers on Sunday night and the Bills matchup with the Broncos was confirmed, this pick got locked in. As good as the Broncos defense can be, they just aren't a scary matchup for any team that's still alive in the playoffs. I'm going to have seen a lot more from this offense that has no real strength beyond offensive line play before I start to have any degree of faith in their ability to hang with the big dogs this time of year, the last time we saw them play a game of consequence their vaunted defense (3rd in scoring, 2nd against the rush, 7th against the pass, 1st in sacks) surrendered 34 points to a Jags offense that ranks lower than the Bills in every meaningful metric except for passing offense and most importantly, this is the time of year where Sean Payton likes to fall on his face (following his Super Bowl run in 2009, he's 5-8 in the playoffs including a 31-7 loss to these very Bills in the Wild Card round last year). Talking shit about the top seed in the conference is a dangerous game and I'm fully prepared to eat crow if need be, I just refuse to take this Broncos team seriously at this juncture, especially against a team with a star veteran quarterback that has performed well on this stage multiple times in recent years.
Seattle Seahawks over San Francisco 49ers:
The shocking breaking news out of Seattle earlier this week that Sam Darnold is dealing with an oblique injury and hasn't thrown a ball all week certainly has me spooked about this game. A fully healthy Darnold imploded in the playoffs last season and this offense doesn't run the ball well enough (while they're ranked 3rd in rushing attempts and 10th in YDS, they're ranked a dismal 25th in yards per attempt) or have the volume of explosive playmakers at their disposal to mask an ailing QB. The good news for the Hawks and the only reason I'm still picking them to win over this pesky, incredibly resilient 49ers team is their defense. It was only two weeks ago in the de facto NFC West title game that Mike Macdonald's hard-nosed group held this terrific offense to 3 points and 173 YDS of total offense. Playing in Seattle and losing George Kittle to a torn Achillies makes the challenge of moving the ball against this imposing defense that much harder for Shanahan's offense and it's hard to have faith that they have the necessary firepower currently at their disposal to put up enough points to win this game.
New England Patriots over Houston Texans:
To me, this is the biggest coin flip game of the weekend. Both of these teams have been terrific after enduring shitty starts (Pats are now 14-1 after starting 1-2 while the Texans are currently on a 10-game winning streak and became just the 7th team in NFL history to reach the playoffs after starting the season 0-3) and have well-earned reputations as tough, physical teams that you really don't want to go up against right now. While the Texans do have a clear advantage on defense and could easily blow up the game-especially given how bad the Pats o-line looked last week, I just don't trust their offense enough to pick them to win. C.J. Stroud did everything he could to try and throw away a game that the Texans dominated from start to finish last week, the Steelers low wattage offense just wasn't able to take advantage of the plethora of giveaways he made. The odds of the Patriots failing to do that if those huge mistakes pop up again this week are very minimal. Mike Vrabel's team has done a pretty good job of taking advantage of turnovers this year and Josh McDaniels is a skilled enough playcaller to at least put some points on the board if they happen to be gifted excellent field position multiple times in a game because Stroud can't hold onto the ball or needlessly forced a throw downfield instead of just taking a sack.
The potential for snow also looms over this game. Not only are the Texans a dome team, but they also play in a division where elements are effectively a non-factor since the only team that plays outdoors outside of Florida is the Titans, have a QB from Southern California in Stroud that has very little experience in the cold in college or the pros and their rushing attack is below average at best (22nd in the league). That's not exactly a blueprint for success when you're playing a team that frolics in the elements damn near every week this time of year and that could prove to be their demise in such an even matchup on paper.
Los Angeles Rams over Chicago Bears:
Riding the high of the Bears insane comeback win over the Packers last Saturday was the best moment I've had as a fan since they went to the Super Bowl 19 years ago. When the Eagles lost to the 49ers last Sunday and the matchup with the Rams was confirmed, that feeling of euphoria promptly turned to dread. The prospect of facing off against a Sean McVay-coached offense that's leading the league in scoring is completely fucking terrifying. As well as the Bears defense played for the bulk of the second half against the Packers, shutting down Romeo Doubs, Jayden Reed and a cartoonishly injured Josh Jacobs is a much easier ask than trying to slow down Puka Nacua, Kyren Williams, Davante Adams and the multiple other threats the Rams have in their arsenal. There's a glimmer of hope to be had for the Bears given the struggles the Rams defense have been going through of late and the whole West Coast team having to play in Chicago in January of it all (although Matthew Stafford's 12-year run with the Lions takes away at least some of that advantage), I just don't like the Bears defense's odds of meaningfully slowing down this wagon of an offense for 60 minutes.
