Last night marked the merciful conclusion of the NFL's always insufferable month-long exhibition slate, which means the return of legitimate game action is finally on the horizon. With the big 2018 season kickoff in Philadelphia just 6 days away, it's time to start my annual weekly power rankings with a look at where I believe the league hierarchy stands before any meaningful downs have been played. Stay tuned every Tuesday from September 11th-January 1st for a new batch of rankings and check back sometime in mid-October to see how comically wrong this initial entry was.
1.Philadelphia Eagles Week 1 opponent: Atlanta Falcons
2.New England Patriots Week 1 opponent: Houston Texans
3.Minnesota Vikings Week 1 opponent: San Francisco 49ers
4.Jacksonville Jaguars Week 1 opponent: New York Giants
5.New Orleans Saints Week 1 opponent: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
6.Pittsburgh Steelers Week 1 opponent: Cleveland Browns
7.Los Angeles Rams Week 1 opponent: Oakland Raiders
8.Atlanta Falcons Week 1 opponent: Philadelphia Eagles
9.Green Bay Packers Week 1 opponent: Chicago Bears
10.Carolina Panthers Week 1 opponent: Dallas Cowboys
11.Los Angeles Chargers Week 1 opponent: Kansas City Chiefs
12.Kansas City Chiefs Week 1 opponent: Los Angeles Chargers
13.Baltimore Ravens Week 1 opponent: Buffalo Bills
14.Detroit Lions Week 1 opponent: New York Jets
15.Tennessee Titans Week 1 opponent: Miami Dolphins
16.Seattle Seahawks Week 1 opponent: Denver Broncos
17.Dallas Cowboys Week 1 opponent: Carolina Panthers
18.New York Giants Week 1 opponent: Jacksonville Jaguars
19.Houston Texans Week 1 opponent: New England Patriots
20.San Francisco 49ers Week 1 opponent: Minnesota Vikings
21.Washington Redskins Week 1 opponent: Arizona Cardinals
22.Denver Broncos Week 1 opponent: Seattle Seahawks
23.Buffalo Bills Week 1 opponent: Baltimore Ravens
24.Cincinnati Bengals Week 1 opponent: Indianapolis Colts
25.Chicago Bears Week 1 opponent: Green Bay Packers
26.Arizona Cardinals Week 1 opponent: Washington Redskins
27.Oakland Raiders Week 1 opponent: Los Angeles Rams
28.Tampa Bay Buccaneers Week 1 opponent: New Orleans Saints
29.Indianapolis Colts Week 1 opponent: Cincinnati Bengals
30.New York Jets Week 1 opponent: Detroit Lions
31.Miami Dolphins Week 1 opponent: Tennessee Titans
32.Cleveland Browns Week 1 opponent: Pittsburgh Steelers
Friday, August 31, 2018
Thursday, August 30, 2018
2018 NFL Preview: AFC West
Denver Broncos
2017 Record: 5-11 (4th in AFC West)
Head Coach: Vance Joseph (2nd season)
Notable Additions: QB Case Keenum, P Marquette King, T Jared Veldheer
Notable Departures: CB Aqib Talib, RB C.J. Anderson, QB Trevor Siemian
-The 5-11 season Broncos had in 2017 can almost entirely be attributed to their horrific quarterback play. No matter which member of the Trevor Siemian/Brock Osweiler/Paxton Lynch tandem lined up under center, the offense often struggled to move the ball and developed a horrific tendency to turn the ball over at pivotal moments. Clearly GM John Elway wasn't going to let this horrible QB situation manifest for another season and decided to bring in veteran Case Keenum to be the team's new starter. While I'm skeptical about his ability to put together another sneaky great season like he had with the Vikings in 2017, Keenum is at the very least a significant upgrade over last year's tragic trio of signalcallers. He doesn't tend to turn the ball over a lot (only 7 INT's in 2017) and outside of a really bad string of games with the Texans in 2013, he's proven he can win games at this level (if you exclude that 0-8 run in 2013, he has a 20-10 record as a starter). The truth is that all Keenum needs to do is let this terrific defense make life difficult for their opponents and score enough points to win close games, and I believe he has what it takes to do just that.
-Call me soft if you want, but I'm glad that Vance Joseph ended up getting retained for a 2nd season. It's really hard to make your mark as a coach in the league when your offense is being run by a group of QB's that flat-out can't make plays and turn the ball over at will (34 giveaways, which was just behind the Browns for the league lead). However, his leash will undoubtedly be pretty short moving forward. He's a defensive-minded coach with a deep arsenal of talented players led by perennial standouts Von Miller and Chris Harris Jr. at his disposal that could be even more deadly in 2018 if their high-ceiling rookies (edge rusher Bradley Chubb, inside linebacker Josey Jewell) pan out and his offense has enough talent on it (Demaryius Thomas, Emmanuel Sanders, a few rookies that could end up being playmakers) that the addition of a QB who isn't a strong bet to either get a 3-and-out or throw an INT every time he takes the field should eliminate much of the limpness that caused them to finish in the league's basement in 2017. We can only hope that Joseph will figure this whole head coaching thing out in year 2 and finally get to have the time of his life on the sideline.
-With C.J. Anderson being a cap causality this offseason, there's now a vacancy at starting running back. With all due respect to 2017 6th round pick De'Angelo Henderson, the battle for this job will be between Devontae Booker and rookie Royce Freeman. Freeman has outshined Booker substantially during the preseason, but it wouldn't be a shocker if they were engaged in a (relatively) even timeshare to start off the year because of the rookie's problems in pass-protection and concerns over his workload while he was at the University of Oregon. However, based on Booker's struggles with health and fumbling since entering the NFL, Freeman will likely be the uncontested starter before too long regardless of who ends up getting most of the reps in Week 1. I didn't think Freeman's college tape was overly impressive, but running behind a pretty decent line that has a pair of superb run-blockers on the interior (center Matt Paradis, guard Ronald Leary) in an offense where he's a near-lock to get ample touches should give him a pretty shot of succeeding in the pro's.
Bottom Line:
The near-guarantee stronger play from the QB position makes improvement seemingly inevitable for the Broncos, but this unproven coaching staff makes a return to the playoffs seem far-fetched this season.
-The 5-11 season Broncos had in 2017 can almost entirely be attributed to their horrific quarterback play. No matter which member of the Trevor Siemian/Brock Osweiler/Paxton Lynch tandem lined up under center, the offense often struggled to move the ball and developed a horrific tendency to turn the ball over at pivotal moments. Clearly GM John Elway wasn't going to let this horrible QB situation manifest for another season and decided to bring in veteran Case Keenum to be the team's new starter. While I'm skeptical about his ability to put together another sneaky great season like he had with the Vikings in 2017, Keenum is at the very least a significant upgrade over last year's tragic trio of signalcallers. He doesn't tend to turn the ball over a lot (only 7 INT's in 2017) and outside of a really bad string of games with the Texans in 2013, he's proven he can win games at this level (if you exclude that 0-8 run in 2013, he has a 20-10 record as a starter). The truth is that all Keenum needs to do is let this terrific defense make life difficult for their opponents and score enough points to win close games, and I believe he has what it takes to do just that.
-Call me soft if you want, but I'm glad that Vance Joseph ended up getting retained for a 2nd season. It's really hard to make your mark as a coach in the league when your offense is being run by a group of QB's that flat-out can't make plays and turn the ball over at will (34 giveaways, which was just behind the Browns for the league lead). However, his leash will undoubtedly be pretty short moving forward. He's a defensive-minded coach with a deep arsenal of talented players led by perennial standouts Von Miller and Chris Harris Jr. at his disposal that could be even more deadly in 2018 if their high-ceiling rookies (edge rusher Bradley Chubb, inside linebacker Josey Jewell) pan out and his offense has enough talent on it (Demaryius Thomas, Emmanuel Sanders, a few rookies that could end up being playmakers) that the addition of a QB who isn't a strong bet to either get a 3-and-out or throw an INT every time he takes the field should eliminate much of the limpness that caused them to finish in the league's basement in 2017. We can only hope that Joseph will figure this whole head coaching thing out in year 2 and finally get to have the time of his life on the sideline.
-With C.J. Anderson being a cap causality this offseason, there's now a vacancy at starting running back. With all due respect to 2017 6th round pick De'Angelo Henderson, the battle for this job will be between Devontae Booker and rookie Royce Freeman. Freeman has outshined Booker substantially during the preseason, but it wouldn't be a shocker if they were engaged in a (relatively) even timeshare to start off the year because of the rookie's problems in pass-protection and concerns over his workload while he was at the University of Oregon. However, based on Booker's struggles with health and fumbling since entering the NFL, Freeman will likely be the uncontested starter before too long regardless of who ends up getting most of the reps in Week 1. I didn't think Freeman's college tape was overly impressive, but running behind a pretty decent line that has a pair of superb run-blockers on the interior (center Matt Paradis, guard Ronald Leary) in an offense where he's a near-lock to get ample touches should give him a pretty shot of succeeding in the pro's.
Bottom Line:
The near-guarantee stronger play from the QB position makes improvement seemingly inevitable for the Broncos, but this unproven coaching staff makes a return to the playoffs seem far-fetched this season.
Kansas City Chiefs
2017 Record: 10-6 (1st in AFC West)
Head Coach: Andy Reid (6th season)
Notable Additions: CB Kendall Fuller, WR Sammy Watkins, ILB Anthony Hitchens
Notable Departures: QB Alex Smith, CB Marcus Peters, ILB Derrick Johnson
-The decision to move on from Alex Smith right now is really ballsy for a couple of reasons: 1.The stability and consistency Smith brought to the position resulted in the Chiefs making 4 playoff appearances, winning 2 division titles and never winning less than 9 games during his 5 seasons with the team. 2.There's absolutely no indication that Patrick Mahomes, who was considered to be a project when he was drafted 10th overall in 2017 due to his shaky pocket presence and the notorious simplicity of the Air Raid offense he ran at Texas Tech, is comfortable enough under center to handle starting duties after only 1 season of learning the ropes behind Smith. While you have to respect the boldness of trading away a QB who is a near-lock to get you to the playoffs in the thin AFC to roll the dice on a big-armed gunslinger who could easily force your team to take a few steps back, I think that giving Mahomes another year to work on his mechanics and further develop an understanding of the many complexities of an NFL offense before trading Smith would've been a good move.
-Regardless of my skepticism surrounding Mahomes' ability to come in and be productive right away, it's hard to argue that he doesn't have a group of receivers around him that aren't ideal for his skill set. Mahomes has to be thrilled to that he has guys like Travis Kelce and top-end speedster Tyreek Hill that have proven time and time again that they can catch bombs down the field. This already stellar vertical attack got even more exciting with the addition of Sammy Watkins-who could prove to be a huge asset if he can bounce back from his down 2017 season with the Rams and solve the timing issues that him and Mahomes have had in the preseason. The depth beneath these 3 and running back Kareem Hunt, who hauled in 53 receptions as a rookie, is a little shaky now that Albert Wilson is out of the equation, but you still have to be intrigued and excited about all of the big-play potential this team has in the passing game with Mahomes under center.
-I've rambled on at length over the course of this series about how running backs are more susceptible to sophomore slumps than just about any other position on the field. Of this year's RB class, I'd give Hunt the highest odds of falling victim to this dreaded gridiron trend. The University of Toledo product's numbers were pretty frontloaded (1,060 of his 1,782 YDS from scrimmage came before November) a year ago and despite the continuity from last season, the Chiefs offensive line is below average and has more than enough vulnerabilities (particularly on the interior) that can be exposed by any half-decent run defense. His guaranteed high volume in Andy Reid's offense will provide plenty of opportunities to avoid this horrible fate I've predicted for him, but I don't expect him to win another rushing title or pick up nearly 1,800 yards from scrimmage again in year 2.
-While it's not as risky as swapping out a veteran QB with 5 playoff appearances on his resume for a 2nd-year guy with 1 career start, cutting ties with young star corner Marcus Peters was still a bold, unexpected move by the Chiefs. Peters may be a not-so-great locker room presence and get torched for easy TD's from time to time, but he's still an excellent player whose very good in coverage and might have the best ball skills of any defensive back in the game as evidenced by his staggering 19 INT's over the past 3 seasons. The silver lining for the Chiefs is they were able to acquire a promising young corner in Kendall Fuller, who graded out as a top 10 corner in the league in 2017, to replace Peters as part of the Smith trade with the Redskins. While he isn't quite the top-notch ballhawk that Peters was, Fuller is much more disciplined in coverage and possess zero character concerns. Given the uncertainty of the other corner slots (currently filled by the always erratic Steven Nelson and Raiders castoff David Amerson) and very realistic possibility that safety Eric Berry isn't the same all-around force he's been in the past as he tries to rebound from an Achilles tear at age 29 going on 30, the Chiefs absolutely need Fuller to cash-in on his immense potential to prevent their secondary from completely falling apart..
Bottom Line:
Unless Patrick Mahomes avoids the bulk of the speed bumps that tend to plague 1st-year starting QB's, the Chiefs win total is likely going to take a bit of a dip in 2018.
-Regardless of my skepticism surrounding Mahomes' ability to come in and be productive right away, it's hard to argue that he doesn't have a group of receivers around him that aren't ideal for his skill set. Mahomes has to be thrilled to that he has guys like Travis Kelce and top-end speedster Tyreek Hill that have proven time and time again that they can catch bombs down the field. This already stellar vertical attack got even more exciting with the addition of Sammy Watkins-who could prove to be a huge asset if he can bounce back from his down 2017 season with the Rams and solve the timing issues that him and Mahomes have had in the preseason. The depth beneath these 3 and running back Kareem Hunt, who hauled in 53 receptions as a rookie, is a little shaky now that Albert Wilson is out of the equation, but you still have to be intrigued and excited about all of the big-play potential this team has in the passing game with Mahomes under center.
-I've rambled on at length over the course of this series about how running backs are more susceptible to sophomore slumps than just about any other position on the field. Of this year's RB class, I'd give Hunt the highest odds of falling victim to this dreaded gridiron trend. The University of Toledo product's numbers were pretty frontloaded (1,060 of his 1,782 YDS from scrimmage came before November) a year ago and despite the continuity from last season, the Chiefs offensive line is below average and has more than enough vulnerabilities (particularly on the interior) that can be exposed by any half-decent run defense. His guaranteed high volume in Andy Reid's offense will provide plenty of opportunities to avoid this horrible fate I've predicted for him, but I don't expect him to win another rushing title or pick up nearly 1,800 yards from scrimmage again in year 2.
-While it's not as risky as swapping out a veteran QB with 5 playoff appearances on his resume for a 2nd-year guy with 1 career start, cutting ties with young star corner Marcus Peters was still a bold, unexpected move by the Chiefs. Peters may be a not-so-great locker room presence and get torched for easy TD's from time to time, but he's still an excellent player whose very good in coverage and might have the best ball skills of any defensive back in the game as evidenced by his staggering 19 INT's over the past 3 seasons. The silver lining for the Chiefs is they were able to acquire a promising young corner in Kendall Fuller, who graded out as a top 10 corner in the league in 2017, to replace Peters as part of the Smith trade with the Redskins. While he isn't quite the top-notch ballhawk that Peters was, Fuller is much more disciplined in coverage and possess zero character concerns. Given the uncertainty of the other corner slots (currently filled by the always erratic Steven Nelson and Raiders castoff David Amerson) and very realistic possibility that safety Eric Berry isn't the same all-around force he's been in the past as he tries to rebound from an Achilles tear at age 29 going on 30, the Chiefs absolutely need Fuller to cash-in on his immense potential to prevent their secondary from completely falling apart..
Bottom Line:
Unless Patrick Mahomes avoids the bulk of the speed bumps that tend to plague 1st-year starting QB's, the Chiefs win total is likely going to take a bit of a dip in 2018.
Los Angeles Chargers
2017 Record: 9-7 (2nd in AFC West)
Head Coach: Anthony Lynn (2nd season)
Notable Additions: C Mike Pouncey, TE Virgil Green, K Caleb Sturgis
Notable Departures: TE Antonio Gates, G/C Matt Slauson, DE Jeremiah Attaochu
-From a pure talent perspective, the Chargers appear to have the ammo to contend for a Super Bowl appearance in this notoriously thin conference as early as this season. Phillip Rivers is still playing pretty well as he creeps towards the big 4-0, they have enough offensive playmakers (Melvin Gordon, Keenan Allen, Tyrell Williams, Travis Benjamin) to keep opposing defenses off-balance, their pretty loaded defense might possess the most underrated secondary (Casey Hayward, Trevor Williams, Desmond King, Jahleel Addae) and edge-rushing tandem in the league (Joey Bosa/Melvin Ingram) and they closed out 2017 season on a 6-1 run full of decisive wins that would seem to indicate that this team is ready to anoint itself as this division's new top dog. All that being said, I know better than to place any lofty expectations on this team because their luck is so remarkably awful. Hell, they've already lost 3 players (tight end Hunter Henry, cornerback Jason Verrett, safety Jaylen Watkins) that were expected to be valuable contributors to their team and the threat of them losing multiple games on last-second missed field goals by the time mid-October rolls around (I'm still blown away that they're going with another journeyman in Caleb Strugis at this position that has burned them more than anything else over the past decade) remains a very realistic possibility. I legitimately feel bad for all 18 Chargers fans who have to deal with the seemingly unescapable, often unbelievable heartbreak that plagues this team year after year.
-With Henry likely out for the season after tearing his ACL at mini-camp back in May and 82-year old Antonio Gates not being on the roster for the 1st time since 2002, the Chargers might have some serious problems on their hands at tight end. Blocking specialist Virgil Green, who was inked to a 3-year deal in free agency, has become the de facto starter due to the lack of experience elsewhere, but his numbers as a receiver over the course of his 7-year career thus far aren't particularly impressive (807 YDS and 4 TD's on 71 receptions) and I wouldn't expect him to become a frequent target in the passing game. As unexciting as Green is as a pass-catcher, you at least know what to expect from him. If he were to go down, true calamity could break out on this offense. Every backup option they currently have on their roster is either a pinball practice squad guy that has bounced around the league and spent little-to-no-time on an active NFL roster (Sean Culkin, Je'Reon Hamm, Bradedon Bowman or an undrafted rookie free agent (Cole Hunt, Ben Johnson) trying to cling onto a roster spot. OC Ken Wisenhunt is going to have to get creative with target shares and multi-receiver sets to work around this sizable deficiency at a spot where he's used to generating a lot of offense from.
-As much as I like this defense on the whole, I don't think they did enough to address their deficiencies as a run defense this offseason. While the 2017 Jaguars proved you could get away with allowing some chunk plays on the ground without compromising your overall dominance as a group, the Chargers tendency to get dominated on the ground likely prevented them from finishing as a top-ranked scoring defense a year ago. The 3 rookies joining their front 7 (defensive tackle Justin Jones, outside linebackers Uchenna Nwosu and Kyzir White) all have decent upside, but I doubt any of them will be able to make enough of an impact to make up for the odd combination of over-the-hill defensive lineman (Brandon Mebane, Corey Liguet, Damion Square) and shaky linebackers (Jatavis Brown, Denzel Perryman, Kyle Emanuel) with poor track records as downhill tacklers they have playing prominent roles upfront that resulted in them allowing a gaudy 131.4 YDS per game last season (2nd-worst in the league). In a division full of teams that love to run the hell out of the ball, this is the absolute worst backbreaking problem the Chargers D could possibly have.
-Outside of the Colts and Seahawks, no team has had more notorious offensive lines problems over the last 5 years than the Chargers. However, unlike those organizations, there's no signs that improvement could be on the horizon in LA. Once you get past their respectable starting tackle combo (Russell Okung, Joe Barksdale), it's a god damn house of horrors down there in Costa Mesa. 2nd-year guard Forrest Lamp appears to have a chronic knee issue that's going to keep him off-the-field for at least the initial chunk of the season, bum's bum Michael Schofield has miraculously secured another starting job in the NFL as the Bolts new starting right guard and replacing Matt Slauson with Mike Pouncey at center might've made them younger, but it sure as hell didn't make them better. Thankfully Rivers is a tough SOB who can get rid of the ball pretty quickly because a more brittle QB in his age range would probably be out of the league if they had a revolving door of turnstiles like this upfront for 5+ years.
-From a pure talent perspective, the Chargers appear to have the ammo to contend for a Super Bowl appearance in this notoriously thin conference as early as this season. Phillip Rivers is still playing pretty well as he creeps towards the big 4-0, they have enough offensive playmakers (Melvin Gordon, Keenan Allen, Tyrell Williams, Travis Benjamin) to keep opposing defenses off-balance, their pretty loaded defense might possess the most underrated secondary (Casey Hayward, Trevor Williams, Desmond King, Jahleel Addae) and edge-rushing tandem in the league (Joey Bosa/Melvin Ingram) and they closed out 2017 season on a 6-1 run full of decisive wins that would seem to indicate that this team is ready to anoint itself as this division's new top dog. All that being said, I know better than to place any lofty expectations on this team because their luck is so remarkably awful. Hell, they've already lost 3 players (tight end Hunter Henry, cornerback Jason Verrett, safety Jaylen Watkins) that were expected to be valuable contributors to their team and the threat of them losing multiple games on last-second missed field goals by the time mid-October rolls around (I'm still blown away that they're going with another journeyman in Caleb Strugis at this position that has burned them more than anything else over the past decade) remains a very realistic possibility. I legitimately feel bad for all 18 Chargers fans who have to deal with the seemingly unescapable, often unbelievable heartbreak that plagues this team year after year.
-With Henry likely out for the season after tearing his ACL at mini-camp back in May and 82-year old Antonio Gates not being on the roster for the 1st time since 2002, the Chargers might have some serious problems on their hands at tight end. Blocking specialist Virgil Green, who was inked to a 3-year deal in free agency, has become the de facto starter due to the lack of experience elsewhere, but his numbers as a receiver over the course of his 7-year career thus far aren't particularly impressive (807 YDS and 4 TD's on 71 receptions) and I wouldn't expect him to become a frequent target in the passing game. As unexciting as Green is as a pass-catcher, you at least know what to expect from him. If he were to go down, true calamity could break out on this offense. Every backup option they currently have on their roster is either a pinball practice squad guy that has bounced around the league and spent little-to-no-time on an active NFL roster (Sean Culkin, Je'Reon Hamm, Bradedon Bowman or an undrafted rookie free agent (Cole Hunt, Ben Johnson) trying to cling onto a roster spot. OC Ken Wisenhunt is going to have to get creative with target shares and multi-receiver sets to work around this sizable deficiency at a spot where he's used to generating a lot of offense from.
-As much as I like this defense on the whole, I don't think they did enough to address their deficiencies as a run defense this offseason. While the 2017 Jaguars proved you could get away with allowing some chunk plays on the ground without compromising your overall dominance as a group, the Chargers tendency to get dominated on the ground likely prevented them from finishing as a top-ranked scoring defense a year ago. The 3 rookies joining their front 7 (defensive tackle Justin Jones, outside linebackers Uchenna Nwosu and Kyzir White) all have decent upside, but I doubt any of them will be able to make enough of an impact to make up for the odd combination of over-the-hill defensive lineman (Brandon Mebane, Corey Liguet, Damion Square) and shaky linebackers (Jatavis Brown, Denzel Perryman, Kyle Emanuel) with poor track records as downhill tacklers they have playing prominent roles upfront that resulted in them allowing a gaudy 131.4 YDS per game last season (2nd-worst in the league). In a division full of teams that love to run the hell out of the ball, this is the absolute worst backbreaking problem the Chargers D could possibly have.
-Outside of the Colts and Seahawks, no team has had more notorious offensive lines problems over the last 5 years than the Chargers. However, unlike those organizations, there's no signs that improvement could be on the horizon in LA. Once you get past their respectable starting tackle combo (Russell Okung, Joe Barksdale), it's a god damn house of horrors down there in Costa Mesa. 2nd-year guard Forrest Lamp appears to have a chronic knee issue that's going to keep him off-the-field for at least the initial chunk of the season, bum's bum Michael Schofield has miraculously secured another starting job in the NFL as the Bolts new starting right guard and replacing Matt Slauson with Mike Pouncey at center might've made them younger, but it sure as hell didn't make them better. Thankfully Rivers is a tough SOB who can get rid of the ball pretty quickly because a more brittle QB in his age range would probably be out of the league if they had a revolving door of turnstiles like this upfront for 5+ years.
Bottom Line:
I'm predicting the Chargers to win the division because I think they're the most complete team in the AFC West, but I'm positive they'll receive a lethal, season-ending kick to their metaphorical dick once the playoffs start, if not sooner.
I'm predicting the Chargers to win the division because I think they're the most complete team in the AFC West, but I'm positive they'll receive a lethal, season-ending kick to their metaphorical dick once the playoffs start, if not sooner.
Oakland Raiders
2017 Record: 6-10 (3rd in AFC West)
Head Coach: Jon Gruden (1st season)
Notable Additions: WR Jordy Nelson, CB Rashaan Melvin, ILB Derrick Johnson
Notable Departures: WR Michael Crabtree, K Sebastian Janikowski, CB David Amerson
-After years of rumors about a coaching comeback, Mark Davis and his majestic bowl cut ended up being the person that was able to lure Jon Gruden out of the broadcast booth. Turns out all you needed to do to get Gruden to leave Monday Night Football was to offer him $100 million for his services. While fans seem to be eating up the redemption narrative of a once-beloved coach returning to the team that mercilessly traded him after the 2001 season , this just screams of a face-saving PR move to give Bay Area Raiders fans some warm nostalgic memories of the good ol'days before they take off for Las Vegas in 2-3 years. I understand that he was watching film on a weekly basis as preparation for MNF, but this guy has been away from coaching for a fucking decade!!!! Coaching icons like Joe Gibbs and Mike Ditka had a hard time evolving to the game after spending a significant amount of time away from the sidelines and Gruden doesn't seem like he's going to be the guy to suddenly break that trend. His public dismissal of analytics, frequent references to his past success and prominent role he played in the signings of multiple aging former stars (Jordy Nelson, Derrick Johnson, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie) in free agency this offseason only further confirmed the suspicion that his mindset is too primitive to enjoy success in the modern NFL. The NFL is a better place with Gruden in it, but I don't think his return to the sideline will do anything but damage the clout and prestige that was once associated with his name.
-Another early red flag from the Gruden regime is how he's handled the holdout of Khalil Mack. Mack is understandably looking for his big payday a year early after racking up 40.5 sacks, 2 1st-team All-Pro appearances and a Defensive Player of the Year honor in his first 4 years in the league, but Mr."I want to take football back to 1998" won't sign off on giving him the $50+ mil in guaranteed money he's commanding as the league's most dominant young edge defender. The 2 sides reportedly haven't had a meaningful discussion in months and the Raiders now have to face the very real possibility of starting the year without the best player on their roster by a wide margin-which I'm sure will do wonders for this reclamation project they're currently embarking on. If I were Mack, I would refuse to step foot on the field for this organization again and put the full-court press on for a trade right away. The Raiders locker room environment could real ugly real quick if they continue to lose and as an elite player whose likely to be coveted by any team who has cap space and is looking to add a game-changing front 7 piece to their roster, even the threat of a situation like that breaking out would be enough for me to want out.
-The popular opinion around Derek Carr started to shift a bit after a rough 2017 season where he often lacked poise, made questionable throws and failed to show up for big games. I have a gut feeling that those bad tendencies will only get worse with this new coaching staff. As he proved with Blake Bortles during his time with the Jaguars, OC Greg Olson is a poor playcaller who doesn't seem to know how to help QB's fix their bad habits and this receiving corps is led by guys who either have shaky hands (Amari Cooper, who is also coming an awful season), blasé work ethics (Martavis Bryant, who the Steelers finally traded away after yet another wildly inconsistent campaign in 2017) or old men that look like they're moving in slow motion every time they break on a route (Nelson). Throwing a struggling QB surrounded by questionable receiving talent into a new offensive system just seems like a failure in the making and is without question one of the main reasons I expect the Raiders to be such an epic dumpster fire this season.
-Even without the prospect of Mack terrorizing opponents at the line of scrimmage for at least the near future, defense is the lone area where the Raiders seem likely to improve under Gruden. New defensive coordinator Paul Guenther, whose has spent the past 4 season seasons as the Bengals DC, should help bolster the development of their key young players (safety Karl Joseph, cornerback Gareon Conley, inside linebacker Marquel Lee) and while the aforementioned geriatric additions were head-scratching, they also brought in some solid veterans (outside linebacker Tahir Whitehead, cornerbacks Rashaan Melvin and Shareece Wright) that should help sure up the depth at positions where they had consistent problems last year. Real shame about the rest of the team and coaching staff though.
Bottom Line:
The Raiders currently don't have Khalil Mack, hired a coach who hasn't been on an NFL sideline since 2007 and have a considerably older roster than they did a year ago. Definitely no way this could end up going horribly wrong!
Projected Standings:
1.Los Angeles Chargers (10-6)
2.Kansas City Chiefs (8-8)
3.Denver Broncos (7-9)
4.Oakland Raiders (4-12)
-After years of rumors about a coaching comeback, Mark Davis and his majestic bowl cut ended up being the person that was able to lure Jon Gruden out of the broadcast booth. Turns out all you needed to do to get Gruden to leave Monday Night Football was to offer him $100 million for his services. While fans seem to be eating up the redemption narrative of a once-beloved coach returning to the team that mercilessly traded him after the 2001 season , this just screams of a face-saving PR move to give Bay Area Raiders fans some warm nostalgic memories of the good ol'days before they take off for Las Vegas in 2-3 years. I understand that he was watching film on a weekly basis as preparation for MNF, but this guy has been away from coaching for a fucking decade!!!! Coaching icons like Joe Gibbs and Mike Ditka had a hard time evolving to the game after spending a significant amount of time away from the sidelines and Gruden doesn't seem like he's going to be the guy to suddenly break that trend. His public dismissal of analytics, frequent references to his past success and prominent role he played in the signings of multiple aging former stars (Jordy Nelson, Derrick Johnson, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie) in free agency this offseason only further confirmed the suspicion that his mindset is too primitive to enjoy success in the modern NFL. The NFL is a better place with Gruden in it, but I don't think his return to the sideline will do anything but damage the clout and prestige that was once associated with his name.
-Another early red flag from the Gruden regime is how he's handled the holdout of Khalil Mack. Mack is understandably looking for his big payday a year early after racking up 40.5 sacks, 2 1st-team All-Pro appearances and a Defensive Player of the Year honor in his first 4 years in the league, but Mr."I want to take football back to 1998" won't sign off on giving him the $50+ mil in guaranteed money he's commanding as the league's most dominant young edge defender. The 2 sides reportedly haven't had a meaningful discussion in months and the Raiders now have to face the very real possibility of starting the year without the best player on their roster by a wide margin-which I'm sure will do wonders for this reclamation project they're currently embarking on. If I were Mack, I would refuse to step foot on the field for this organization again and put the full-court press on for a trade right away. The Raiders locker room environment could real ugly real quick if they continue to lose and as an elite player whose likely to be coveted by any team who has cap space and is looking to add a game-changing front 7 piece to their roster, even the threat of a situation like that breaking out would be enough for me to want out.
-The popular opinion around Derek Carr started to shift a bit after a rough 2017 season where he often lacked poise, made questionable throws and failed to show up for big games. I have a gut feeling that those bad tendencies will only get worse with this new coaching staff. As he proved with Blake Bortles during his time with the Jaguars, OC Greg Olson is a poor playcaller who doesn't seem to know how to help QB's fix their bad habits and this receiving corps is led by guys who either have shaky hands (Amari Cooper, who is also coming an awful season), blasé work ethics (Martavis Bryant, who the Steelers finally traded away after yet another wildly inconsistent campaign in 2017) or old men that look like they're moving in slow motion every time they break on a route (Nelson). Throwing a struggling QB surrounded by questionable receiving talent into a new offensive system just seems like a failure in the making and is without question one of the main reasons I expect the Raiders to be such an epic dumpster fire this season.
-Even without the prospect of Mack terrorizing opponents at the line of scrimmage for at least the near future, defense is the lone area where the Raiders seem likely to improve under Gruden. New defensive coordinator Paul Guenther, whose has spent the past 4 season seasons as the Bengals DC, should help bolster the development of their key young players (safety Karl Joseph, cornerback Gareon Conley, inside linebacker Marquel Lee) and while the aforementioned geriatric additions were head-scratching, they also brought in some solid veterans (outside linebacker Tahir Whitehead, cornerbacks Rashaan Melvin and Shareece Wright) that should help sure up the depth at positions where they had consistent problems last year. Real shame about the rest of the team and coaching staff though.
Bottom Line:
The Raiders currently don't have Khalil Mack, hired a coach who hasn't been on an NFL sideline since 2007 and have a considerably older roster than they did a year ago. Definitely no way this could end up going horribly wrong!
Projected Standings:
1.Los Angeles Chargers (10-6)
2.Kansas City Chiefs (8-8)
3.Denver Broncos (7-9)
4.Oakland Raiders (4-12)
Tuesday, August 28, 2018
As We Proceed Episodes #22 and #23
On a pair of action-packed August episodes of As We Proceed, Feliciano and I discuss the mysterious disappearance of Lil Pump's Harverd Dropout LP, Nicki Minaj's Trump-esque Twitter rant after failing to debut at #1 on the Billboard Top 200 album chart, Denzel Curry's TAB1300, Minaj's Queen and much, much more. Both hour-long take quakes can be streamed on the audio platform of your choice below:
Soundcloud:
"Finish Em' Zel!" (Recorded July 31st):
"SWAE LEE IS AUTOTUNE SWEDISH CHEF?" (Recorded August 21st):
iTunes: https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/as-we-proceed/id1122163104?mt=2
Soundcloud:
"Finish Em' Zel!" (Recorded July 31st):
"SWAE LEE IS AUTOTUNE SWEDISH CHEF?" (Recorded August 21st):
iTunes: https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/as-we-proceed/id1122163104?mt=2
Monday, August 27, 2018
The Best and Worst of Zoe Kravitz
“The Best and Worst of” series chronicles the career
highlights and lowlights of an actor starring in one of the week's
new theatrical releases. This week, I take a look at the filmography
of “Kin” star Zoe Kravitz.
Films starring Zoe Kravitz that I've seen:
It's Kind of a Funny Story
X-Men: First Class
After Earth
Divergent
Insurgent
Mad Max: Fury Road
Dope
Allegiant
The Lego Batman Movie
Rough Night
Gemini
Best Performance: Dope (2015)
Shamiek Moore, Tony Revolori, Kiersey Clemons, Blake Anderson and Chanel Iman may have had showier and/or more comedically-rich roles, but Kravitz may be the unsung hero among Dope's terrific ensemble. As Nakia-the love interest of Malcolm (Moore) who indirectly sets the primary plot into motion, Kravitz's wise, even-keeled presence helps ground this (mostly) implausible coming-of-age-story in some sort of reality.
Worst Performance: Mad Max: Fury Road (2015)
The failure of this performance honestly has nothing to do with Kravitz. Every character that wasn't named Max, Furiousa, Nux or Immortan Joe in this vastly overrated action flick was a completely disposable presence that sat idly in the background while an extensive, rarely-exciting straight line chase scene played out in front of them.
Best Film: Dope (2015)
After putting out a string of mediocre romantic comedies, writer/director Rick Famuyiwa (The Wood) gloriously returned to his coming-of-age story roots here. Dope's entertaining characters, oddball sense of humor and aforementioned top-notch efforts from its ensemble cast made it a true standout in a genre that has seen its fair share of excellence in recent years.
Worst Film: After Earth (2013)
I actually feel kind of bad picking After Earth to fill this slot because I sincerely don't think it's anywhere near as bad as the popular opinion has made it out to be. However, I'm not going to pretend like I view Will Smith's passion project in a particularly positive light either. Thanks to some uneven pacing and a pretty horrendous performance from Will's beloved son Jaden in the co-leading role, After Earth ends up being a below average post-apocalyptic survival story that has all but completely disintegrated from my memory.
Thank you for reading this week's edition of “The Best and Worst of”. The next victim of my praise and ire will be “The Nun” star Demian Bichir.
Films starring Zoe Kravitz that I've seen:
It's Kind of a Funny Story
X-Men: First Class
After Earth
Divergent
Insurgent
Mad Max: Fury Road
Dope
Allegiant
The Lego Batman Movie
Rough Night
Gemini
Best Performance: Dope (2015)
Shamiek Moore, Tony Revolori, Kiersey Clemons, Blake Anderson and Chanel Iman may have had showier and/or more comedically-rich roles, but Kravitz may be the unsung hero among Dope's terrific ensemble. As Nakia-the love interest of Malcolm (Moore) who indirectly sets the primary plot into motion, Kravitz's wise, even-keeled presence helps ground this (mostly) implausible coming-of-age-story in some sort of reality.
Worst Performance: Mad Max: Fury Road (2015)
The failure of this performance honestly has nothing to do with Kravitz. Every character that wasn't named Max, Furiousa, Nux or Immortan Joe in this vastly overrated action flick was a completely disposable presence that sat idly in the background while an extensive, rarely-exciting straight line chase scene played out in front of them.
Best Film: Dope (2015)
After putting out a string of mediocre romantic comedies, writer/director Rick Famuyiwa (The Wood) gloriously returned to his coming-of-age story roots here. Dope's entertaining characters, oddball sense of humor and aforementioned top-notch efforts from its ensemble cast made it a true standout in a genre that has seen its fair share of excellence in recent years.
Worst Film: After Earth (2013)
I actually feel kind of bad picking After Earth to fill this slot because I sincerely don't think it's anywhere near as bad as the popular opinion has made it out to be. However, I'm not going to pretend like I view Will Smith's passion project in a particularly positive light either. Thanks to some uneven pacing and a pretty horrendous performance from Will's beloved son Jaden in the co-leading role, After Earth ends up being a below average post-apocalyptic survival story that has all but completely disintegrated from my memory.
Thank you for reading this week's edition of “The Best and Worst of”. The next victim of my praise and ire will be “The Nun” star Demian Bichir.
Friday, August 24, 2018
Highly Ranked Players to Avoid in Fantasy Football: 2018 Edition
Going through each site's fantasy rankings is always an interesting experience. You get to scope out the range where the players you covet are going, peg potential sleepers and of course, occasionally get taken aback by where certain players you don't trust are being selected. This list is dedicated to the latter. Hope you enjoy!
Quarterback: Deshaun Watson (Texans) (ADP: Yahoo!: 37.8 ESPN: 52.5 NFL.com: 44.3)
The Deshaun Watson fantasy hype train is easily the strongest of any non-RB going into the draft. He's near-universally projected to be the #1 fantasy QB and his ADP is currently only behind Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady on all 3 major fantasy sites. As impressive as he was as a rookie, expecting a (nearly) 23-year old coming off a torn ACL with limited starting experience (7 games) to put up 4,500+ total yards and 30+ TD is a pretty bonkers leap of faith. If you want to spend a high pick on a dual-threat QB, wait a little bit and take Russell Wilson or Cam Newton instead.
Dishonorable Mentions: Carson Wentz (Eagles), Drew Brees (Saints), Jimmy Garoppolo (49ers)
Running Back: Jerick McKinnon (49ers) (ADP: Yahoo!: 30.6 ESPN: 30.9 NFL.com: 31.2)
Kyle Shanahan's lauded scheme allowed Carlos Hyde to enjoy a quietly productive season as a dual-threat back (1,290 YDS from scrimmage and 8 TD's) in 2017. The 49ers new starting back Jerick McKinnon is far from a lock to enjoy a similar level of success. McKinnon has failed to reach 1,000 YDS from scrimmage in all of his 4 NFL season to-date, has no experience as an uncontested starter and despite having a frame that seems ideal for breaking through piles on the goal line (5'9, 216 lbs), he seems to be immune to crossing the plain (only 12 TD's on 611 career touches). Even with the position's questionable depth, there are higher upside RB2 options (Devonta Freeman, Jordan Howard, Alex Collins) going around the same time as McKinnon, if not a bit later.
Dishonorable Mentions: Dalvin Cook (Vikings), LeSean McCoy (Bills), Joe Mixon (Bengals)
Wide Receiver: Amari Cooper (Raiders) (ADP: Yahoo!: 38.2 ESPN: 41.2 NFL.com: 52.1)
Despite hauling in a career-high 7 TD's, 2017 was a nightmare for Amari Cooper as he finished the year with a paltry 680 YDS on 48 receptions and dropped 5+ passes for a 3rd straight season. Coming off an absolute bust of season like that, there's absolutely no reason to even consider paying a WR2 price for him this year. Shaky hands aren't something that go away plus I have absolutely no faith in the new Raiders coaching regime's (Jon Gruden, offensive coordinator Greg Olsen) ability to put an efficient, reliable product on the field.
Dishonorable Mentions: Josh Gordon (Browns), Corey Davis (Titans), Allen Robinson (Bears)
Tight End: Jimmy Graham (Packers) (ADP: Yahoo!: 48.9 ESPN: 54.8 NFL.com: 51.4)
Even though he's lost a step in his early 30's, Graham is still a legit redzone threat (16 over the past 2 season) and his TD total could get even higher now that he has Aaron Rodgers throwing to him. However, his low yardage total (520 on 57 REC) and pretty high volume of duds (5 games with 10 yards or less and only 3 with 50+ yards) during the 2015 season makes him a poor value at his current early-to-mid 5th round ADP.
Dishonorable Mentions: Greg Olsen (Panthers), Evan Engram (Giants), Jordan Reed (Redskins)
Defense/Special Teams: Houston Texans (ADP: Yahoo!: 94.4 ESPN: 120.8 NFL.com: 80.0)
Fantasy sites seems to be very confident that J.J. Watt can come back in and make a monstrous impact right away after missing the bulk of the last 2 seasons with major back and leg injuries. Even if he does, the talent around him outside of fellow pass-rushers Whitney Mercilus and Jadevon Clowney isn't exactly abundant. Their secondary is incredibly suspect, they don't have a lot of takeaway threats on the roster and most importantly, they are coming off a 2017 season where they ranked dead last in scoring defense. They might turn out to be a decent group when the dust settles on the season, but projecting them as a top-5 fantasy defense heading into the season is an incredibly optimistic take that you should probably ignore if your someone who likes to take defenses somewhere between the 7th and 10th round.
Dishonorable Mentions: Minnesota Vikings, Denver Broncos, Seattle Seahawks
Quarterback: Deshaun Watson (Texans) (ADP: Yahoo!: 37.8 ESPN: 52.5 NFL.com: 44.3)
The Deshaun Watson fantasy hype train is easily the strongest of any non-RB going into the draft. He's near-universally projected to be the #1 fantasy QB and his ADP is currently only behind Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady on all 3 major fantasy sites. As impressive as he was as a rookie, expecting a (nearly) 23-year old coming off a torn ACL with limited starting experience (7 games) to put up 4,500+ total yards and 30+ TD is a pretty bonkers leap of faith. If you want to spend a high pick on a dual-threat QB, wait a little bit and take Russell Wilson or Cam Newton instead.
Dishonorable Mentions: Carson Wentz (Eagles), Drew Brees (Saints), Jimmy Garoppolo (49ers)
Running Back: Jerick McKinnon (49ers) (ADP: Yahoo!: 30.6 ESPN: 30.9 NFL.com: 31.2)
Kyle Shanahan's lauded scheme allowed Carlos Hyde to enjoy a quietly productive season as a dual-threat back (1,290 YDS from scrimmage and 8 TD's) in 2017. The 49ers new starting back Jerick McKinnon is far from a lock to enjoy a similar level of success. McKinnon has failed to reach 1,000 YDS from scrimmage in all of his 4 NFL season to-date, has no experience as an uncontested starter and despite having a frame that seems ideal for breaking through piles on the goal line (5'9, 216 lbs), he seems to be immune to crossing the plain (only 12 TD's on 611 career touches). Even with the position's questionable depth, there are higher upside RB2 options (Devonta Freeman, Jordan Howard, Alex Collins) going around the same time as McKinnon, if not a bit later.
Dishonorable Mentions: Dalvin Cook (Vikings), LeSean McCoy (Bills), Joe Mixon (Bengals)
Wide Receiver: Amari Cooper (Raiders) (ADP: Yahoo!: 38.2 ESPN: 41.2 NFL.com: 52.1)
Despite hauling in a career-high 7 TD's, 2017 was a nightmare for Amari Cooper as he finished the year with a paltry 680 YDS on 48 receptions and dropped 5+ passes for a 3rd straight season. Coming off an absolute bust of season like that, there's absolutely no reason to even consider paying a WR2 price for him this year. Shaky hands aren't something that go away plus I have absolutely no faith in the new Raiders coaching regime's (Jon Gruden, offensive coordinator Greg Olsen) ability to put an efficient, reliable product on the field.
Dishonorable Mentions: Josh Gordon (Browns), Corey Davis (Titans), Allen Robinson (Bears)
Tight End: Jimmy Graham (Packers) (ADP: Yahoo!: 48.9 ESPN: 54.8 NFL.com: 51.4)
Even though he's lost a step in his early 30's, Graham is still a legit redzone threat (16 over the past 2 season) and his TD total could get even higher now that he has Aaron Rodgers throwing to him. However, his low yardage total (520 on 57 REC) and pretty high volume of duds (5 games with 10 yards or less and only 3 with 50+ yards) during the 2015 season makes him a poor value at his current early-to-mid 5th round ADP.
Dishonorable Mentions: Greg Olsen (Panthers), Evan Engram (Giants), Jordan Reed (Redskins)
Defense/Special Teams: Houston Texans (ADP: Yahoo!: 94.4 ESPN: 120.8 NFL.com: 80.0)
Fantasy sites seems to be very confident that J.J. Watt can come back in and make a monstrous impact right away after missing the bulk of the last 2 seasons with major back and leg injuries. Even if he does, the talent around him outside of fellow pass-rushers Whitney Mercilus and Jadevon Clowney isn't exactly abundant. Their secondary is incredibly suspect, they don't have a lot of takeaway threats on the roster and most importantly, they are coming off a 2017 season where they ranked dead last in scoring defense. They might turn out to be a decent group when the dust settles on the season, but projecting them as a top-5 fantasy defense heading into the season is an incredibly optimistic take that you should probably ignore if your someone who likes to take defenses somewhere between the 7th and 10th round.
Dishonorable Mentions: Minnesota Vikings, Denver Broncos, Seattle Seahawks
Thursday, August 23, 2018
2018 NFL Preview: NFC South
Atlanta Falcons
2017 Record: 10-6 (3rd in NFC South)
Head Coach: Dan Quinn (4th season)
Notable Additions: G Brandon Fusco, CB Justin Bethel, S Ron Parker
Notable Departures: WR Taylor Gabriel, DT Dontari Poe, DE Adrian Clayborn
-As I mentioned in my fantasy football sleeper column earlier this week, I'm baffled by the dark cloud of doubt that's surrounding Matt Ryan going into this season. Sure his TD total in 2017 was underwhelming as hell (20, which was less than future HOFer's Case Keenum and Andy Dalton) and he's not likely to match the eye-popping production he had under Kyle Shanahan with Steve Sarkisian running the offense, but to peg him as a guy who is on his last legs as a starting NFL quarterback is ridiculous to me. Ryan has thrown for over 4,000 yards in 7 consecutive seasons, hasn't completed less than 64.5% of his passes since 2011 and has the luxury of having enough weapons around him at the skill positions (including Julio Jones, Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman) that opposing defenses can't afford to hone in on just 1 player. I fully expect his numbers to be up across the board this season after his "down year" in 2017 and once again have this Falcons squad in the playoff hunt.
-Rookie wideout Calvin Ridley is a fascinating potential X-factor on this offense. His route-running prowess gives him a higher floor than recently-departed straight-line burner Taylor Gabriel, who was their #3 wideout for the past 2 seasons and elusiveness after-the-catch makes him a more exciting option than incumbent #2 WR Momhaed Sanu. If the playmaking ability and strong chemistry with Ryan he's flashed in the preseason carries over to the regular season, Ridley could be a legit Offensive ROTY contender.
-Settling the Julio Jones contract dispute early in camp was a very wise move by Thomas Dimitroff. Not having a receiver of his caliber on the field for an extended amount of time would've been highly detrimental to the offense plus keeping a veteran leader like him happy is essential to keeping overall team morale from falling off. Maybe Les Snead and Reggie McKenzie should take some notes from Dimitroff on how to deal with holdouts in a timely, levelheaded manner...
-The seemingly petty defensive coordinator change the Falcons made immediately after their historic Super Bowl 51 meltdown actually paid dividends in 2017. Marquand Manuel led this group to strong numbers across the board (8th in scoring defense, 9th in run defense, 12th in pass defense) and helped secure some wins in close games while their offense went through rough patches of varying lengths throughout the year. Upon examining their roster, you have to feel good about their odds of being even better in 2018. No members of their havoc-wreaking young corps (Deion Jones, Keanu Neal, Grady Jarrett, De'Vondre Campbell, Takk McKinnley) seems like they've hit their peak yet, Desmond Trufant and Robert Alford are one of the best corner tandems in the game and with the possible exception of defensive end in the wake of Adrian Clayborn's departure, no position stands out as a truly crippling weakness. The Falcons very well could have the most underrated defense in the league right now and I believe that claim will only grow stronger following the conclusion of the 2018 season.
Bottom Line:
The Falcons have been a damn fine football team since Dan Quinn took over as head coach and it would be a surprise if they weren't very competitive once again this year.
-As I mentioned in my fantasy football sleeper column earlier this week, I'm baffled by the dark cloud of doubt that's surrounding Matt Ryan going into this season. Sure his TD total in 2017 was underwhelming as hell (20, which was less than future HOFer's Case Keenum and Andy Dalton) and he's not likely to match the eye-popping production he had under Kyle Shanahan with Steve Sarkisian running the offense, but to peg him as a guy who is on his last legs as a starting NFL quarterback is ridiculous to me. Ryan has thrown for over 4,000 yards in 7 consecutive seasons, hasn't completed less than 64.5% of his passes since 2011 and has the luxury of having enough weapons around him at the skill positions (including Julio Jones, Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman) that opposing defenses can't afford to hone in on just 1 player. I fully expect his numbers to be up across the board this season after his "down year" in 2017 and once again have this Falcons squad in the playoff hunt.
-Rookie wideout Calvin Ridley is a fascinating potential X-factor on this offense. His route-running prowess gives him a higher floor than recently-departed straight-line burner Taylor Gabriel, who was their #3 wideout for the past 2 seasons and elusiveness after-the-catch makes him a more exciting option than incumbent #2 WR Momhaed Sanu. If the playmaking ability and strong chemistry with Ryan he's flashed in the preseason carries over to the regular season, Ridley could be a legit Offensive ROTY contender.
-Settling the Julio Jones contract dispute early in camp was a very wise move by Thomas Dimitroff. Not having a receiver of his caliber on the field for an extended amount of time would've been highly detrimental to the offense plus keeping a veteran leader like him happy is essential to keeping overall team morale from falling off. Maybe Les Snead and Reggie McKenzie should take some notes from Dimitroff on how to deal with holdouts in a timely, levelheaded manner...
-The seemingly petty defensive coordinator change the Falcons made immediately after their historic Super Bowl 51 meltdown actually paid dividends in 2017. Marquand Manuel led this group to strong numbers across the board (8th in scoring defense, 9th in run defense, 12th in pass defense) and helped secure some wins in close games while their offense went through rough patches of varying lengths throughout the year. Upon examining their roster, you have to feel good about their odds of being even better in 2018. No members of their havoc-wreaking young corps (Deion Jones, Keanu Neal, Grady Jarrett, De'Vondre Campbell, Takk McKinnley) seems like they've hit their peak yet, Desmond Trufant and Robert Alford are one of the best corner tandems in the game and with the possible exception of defensive end in the wake of Adrian Clayborn's departure, no position stands out as a truly crippling weakness. The Falcons very well could have the most underrated defense in the league right now and I believe that claim will only grow stronger following the conclusion of the 2018 season.
Bottom Line:
The Falcons have been a damn fine football team since Dan Quinn took over as head coach and it would be a surprise if they weren't very competitive once again this year.
Carolina Panthers
2017 Record: 11-5 (2nd in NFC South)
Head Coach: Ron Rivera (8th season)
Notable Additions: RB C.J. Anderson, DT Dontari Poe, S Da'Norris Searcy
Notable Departures: G Andrew Norwell, DT Star Lotulelei, RB Jonathan Stewart
-Panthers fans seem to be very excited about the firing of OC Mike Shula. While it might be a case of me romanticizing a team that I'm mostly watching from afar, I was pretty impressed with what Shula was able to do throughout his 4-year tenure as the architect of the Panthers offensive attack. His playcalling is perhaps a little too conservative at times, but he was always to field a group that was at the very least competent, despite not always having a particularly deep or impressive arsenal of talent at his disposal. What's confusing me even more than the joy over Shula's dismissal is how jazzed up they are about Norv F'n Turner taking over. Turner is a primitive-minded retread who hasn't exactly fared super well in either of the OC gigs he's had (Browns in 2013, Vikings from 2014-16) since he was let go as Chargers HC following the 2012 season. Only 1 of the past 4 offenses he's ran have finished in the top half of the league in scoring and even if Greg Olsen bounces back after an injury-plagued 2017 and rookie wideout D.J. Moore is able to make an impact right away, something tells me that this not-so-deep-or-talented group will be able to him break him out of the rut he's been in since he planted the seeds for the Cowboys Triplets-era dynasty in the early-90's. I'll be fascinated to see how long this Turner lovefest in Charlotte lasts if this offense ends up sputtering out of the gate.
-The departure of star guard Andrew Norwell in free agency delivered a huge blow to this offensive line before they even stepped on the field for their 1st OTA of the season . Now that reigning All-Pro right tackle Daryl Williams is done for the year after suffering a torn MCL during the 1st week of training camp, this line all of a sudden looks it might not even been functional in 2018. Trai Turner has been pretty inconsistent for much of the past 2 seasons, center Ryan Kalil is a brittle shell of his former self that's on the brink of retirement, his brother Matt, who plays left tackle, is a well below-average player who also has a hard time staying healthy and the less said about the collection of jabronis (Taylor Moton, Jeremiah Sirles, Amini Silatolu) that are going to be tasked with taking the spots Norwell and Williams held in 2017, the better. Given the coaching staff's commitment to protecting Cam Newton from the dangers of improvised downfield runs resulting from broken plays whenever possible at this point in his career, increased uncertainty along the offensive line was the last thing they needed.
-I strongly believe that C.J. Anderson was one of the more underrated free agent acquisitions of the entire offseason. The 27-year old's power-based running style makes for an excellent complement to the flashiness of Christian McCaffery and his effectiveness as a starter with the Broncos means you can preserve the freshness of and/or limit the beatings the slight, 2nd-year speedster takes over the course of a 16-game season by giving Anderson a healthy number of touches (10+) per game. If decaying artifact Jonathan Stewart can scoop up 680 YDS and 6 TD's as McCaffery's sidekick, Anderson should be able to finish the year with numbers that are least at slightly better than that.
For the 2nd straight year, the Panthers are heading into the season with a new defensive coordinator after Steve Wilks was hired to be the new head coach of the Cardinals. Fortunately for them, they once again were blessed with the luxury of filling that important vacancy by promoting a longtime assistant from within their organization. Eric Washington has been the defensive line coach since Ron Rivera was hired as HC in 2011 and while he's no lock to be some kind of virtuoso as a shotcaller for the whole defense, the abundance of familiarity he has with the personnel along with the level of talent that's present through the bulk of this defense (Luke Kuechly, Kawann Short, Thomas Davis, Mike Adams, Shaq Thompson, newcomer Dontari Poe) should make the change in power pretty seamless.
Bottom Line:
The Panthers are a talented, hard-nosed squad with a winning pedigree, but their potentially serious issues along the offensive line could be enough to keep them out of the playoffs
-Panthers fans seem to be very excited about the firing of OC Mike Shula. While it might be a case of me romanticizing a team that I'm mostly watching from afar, I was pretty impressed with what Shula was able to do throughout his 4-year tenure as the architect of the Panthers offensive attack. His playcalling is perhaps a little too conservative at times, but he was always to field a group that was at the very least competent, despite not always having a particularly deep or impressive arsenal of talent at his disposal. What's confusing me even more than the joy over Shula's dismissal is how jazzed up they are about Norv F'n Turner taking over. Turner is a primitive-minded retread who hasn't exactly fared super well in either of the OC gigs he's had (Browns in 2013, Vikings from 2014-16) since he was let go as Chargers HC following the 2012 season. Only 1 of the past 4 offenses he's ran have finished in the top half of the league in scoring and even if Greg Olsen bounces back after an injury-plagued 2017 and rookie wideout D.J. Moore is able to make an impact right away, something tells me that this not-so-deep-or-talented group will be able to him break him out of the rut he's been in since he planted the seeds for the Cowboys Triplets-era dynasty in the early-90's. I'll be fascinated to see how long this Turner lovefest in Charlotte lasts if this offense ends up sputtering out of the gate.
-The departure of star guard Andrew Norwell in free agency delivered a huge blow to this offensive line before they even stepped on the field for their 1st OTA of the season . Now that reigning All-Pro right tackle Daryl Williams is done for the year after suffering a torn MCL during the 1st week of training camp, this line all of a sudden looks it might not even been functional in 2018. Trai Turner has been pretty inconsistent for much of the past 2 seasons, center Ryan Kalil is a brittle shell of his former self that's on the brink of retirement, his brother Matt, who plays left tackle, is a well below-average player who also has a hard time staying healthy and the less said about the collection of jabronis (Taylor Moton, Jeremiah Sirles, Amini Silatolu) that are going to be tasked with taking the spots Norwell and Williams held in 2017, the better. Given the coaching staff's commitment to protecting Cam Newton from the dangers of improvised downfield runs resulting from broken plays whenever possible at this point in his career, increased uncertainty along the offensive line was the last thing they needed.
-I strongly believe that C.J. Anderson was one of the more underrated free agent acquisitions of the entire offseason. The 27-year old's power-based running style makes for an excellent complement to the flashiness of Christian McCaffery and his effectiveness as a starter with the Broncos means you can preserve the freshness of and/or limit the beatings the slight, 2nd-year speedster takes over the course of a 16-game season by giving Anderson a healthy number of touches (10+) per game. If decaying artifact Jonathan Stewart can scoop up 680 YDS and 6 TD's as McCaffery's sidekick, Anderson should be able to finish the year with numbers that are least at slightly better than that.
For the 2nd straight year, the Panthers are heading into the season with a new defensive coordinator after Steve Wilks was hired to be the new head coach of the Cardinals. Fortunately for them, they once again were blessed with the luxury of filling that important vacancy by promoting a longtime assistant from within their organization. Eric Washington has been the defensive line coach since Ron Rivera was hired as HC in 2011 and while he's no lock to be some kind of virtuoso as a shotcaller for the whole defense, the abundance of familiarity he has with the personnel along with the level of talent that's present through the bulk of this defense (Luke Kuechly, Kawann Short, Thomas Davis, Mike Adams, Shaq Thompson, newcomer Dontari Poe) should make the change in power pretty seamless.
Bottom Line:
The Panthers are a talented, hard-nosed squad with a winning pedigree, but their potentially serious issues along the offensive line could be enough to keep them out of the playoffs
New Orleans Saints
2017 Record: 11-5 (1st in NFC South)
Head Coach: Sean Payton (12th season)
Head Coach: Sean Payton (12th season)
Notable Additions: CB Patrick Robinson, ILB Demario Davis, WR Cameron Meredith
Notable Departures: WR Willie Snead, S Kenny Vaccaro, TE Coby Fleener
-I'm completely indifferent on the Saints, but that didn't stop me from getting irrationally confused and pissed off by the Minneapolis Miracle. Getting eliminated from a playoffs on a play that can only be attributed as a tremendous stroke of luck for their opponent is about the worst possible break you can have in the NFL. As the 2015 Seahawks, 2017 Falcons and countless others have proved over the years, tough losses like that can absolutely bleed into the following season. Hell, Alvin Kamara just went off about it at length in his Bleacher Report profile that was published earlier this month. Even with Kamara's expletive-filled outburst, I think the Saints have enough dynamic talent on both sides of the ball and experienced, level-headed individuals on their roster to not let that crushing Divisional Round defeat from 2017 have a significant effect on their play in 2018.
-Speaking of Kamara, his electric, dual-threat playmaking ability made him a force of nature in the pro's right away. Now the biggest challenge for the reigning Offensive Rookie of the Year will be sustaining that success moving forward. With running mate Mark Ingram suspended for the 4 games of the year for "illegally" taking Adderall, his ability to replicate his success will be tested right away. As versatile and elusive as Kamara is, he isn't exactly built to handle the workload of your typical workhorse back . Plus with the guarantee of Kamara securing the vast majority of the backfield touches while Ingram is away from the team, there's a predictability factor that will allow opposing defenses to make stopping him the focal point of their gameplan. Even when Ingram returns to the fold in early October, expecting Kamara to match or exceed the absurd YDS per touch (8.1 on 201 touches) he averaged he a year ago would be unfair and unrealistic. All this cynicism is basically a drawn-out way of saying that despite his immense talent and a near-guarantee that he'll get more touches, there's a very good chance that Kamara's numbers will take a hit in 2018.
-The starting receiver slot alongside budding star Michael Thomas is wide open and given Ted Ginn's well-known limitations as a receiver, Cameron Meredith has a golden opportunity to take it. Prior to missing all of 2017 with a torn ACL, the 25-year old, ex-Bears wideout turned some heads around the league by putting together a nice 2016 campaign (66 REC, 888 YDS, 4 TD) with a legit carousel of QB's (Jay Cutler, Brian Hoyer, Matt Barkley) throwing him the ball. Could those numbers be attributed to him being the only member of the receiving corps to appear in all 16 games that year? Possibly. Is it alarming that Bears didn't match the incredibly modest offer sheet the Saints signed him to (2 year/$9 million/$4.5 mil guaranteed)? Absolutely. Regardless of these potential red flags, he's still a fairly intriguing, low-risk/high-reward player that could sneak up on people and gain a semi-prominent role on this already stacked offense.
-The Saints fielding a pretty good defense (10th in points against, 17th in total yards allowed, tied for 7th in sacks, tied for 9th in takeaways) was honestly one of the biggest surprises of the 2017 season. Blown coverages and a staggering inability to slow down the running game has been such a common theme of Sean Payton's post-Super Bowl victory years in New Orleans that its absence was almost surreal. Call me naïve given their inability to sustain anything that even resembles consistent productivity on this side of the ball, but I actually think this D is going to be even better in 2018. They addressed a couple of glaring problem areas in free agency (slot corner, inside linebacker) with the additions of unheralded veterans Patrick Robinson and Demario Davis-who are both coming off career years, placing a high-ceiling rookie like Marcus Davenport alongside established wrecking ball Cameron Jordan at defensive end could elevate this already solid pass-rush to another level and I believe that they're young defensive back corps led by Ken Crawley, Marcus Williams and reigning Defensive Rookie of the Year Marshon Lattimore is absolutely legit. Only widespread regression or the return of DC Dennis Allen's pre-2017 stoogery could get in the way of stunting this group's immense potential.
Bottom Line:
If they can keep their heads screwed on and the improvement their defense showed last season wasn't a fluke, the Saints should be in contention for their 2nd straight division title and subsequent deep playoff run.
-I'm completely indifferent on the Saints, but that didn't stop me from getting irrationally confused and pissed off by the Minneapolis Miracle. Getting eliminated from a playoffs on a play that can only be attributed as a tremendous stroke of luck for their opponent is about the worst possible break you can have in the NFL. As the 2015 Seahawks, 2017 Falcons and countless others have proved over the years, tough losses like that can absolutely bleed into the following season. Hell, Alvin Kamara just went off about it at length in his Bleacher Report profile that was published earlier this month. Even with Kamara's expletive-filled outburst, I think the Saints have enough dynamic talent on both sides of the ball and experienced, level-headed individuals on their roster to not let that crushing Divisional Round defeat from 2017 have a significant effect on their play in 2018.
-Speaking of Kamara, his electric, dual-threat playmaking ability made him a force of nature in the pro's right away. Now the biggest challenge for the reigning Offensive Rookie of the Year will be sustaining that success moving forward. With running mate Mark Ingram suspended for the 4 games of the year for "illegally" taking Adderall, his ability to replicate his success will be tested right away. As versatile and elusive as Kamara is, he isn't exactly built to handle the workload of your typical workhorse back . Plus with the guarantee of Kamara securing the vast majority of the backfield touches while Ingram is away from the team, there's a predictability factor that will allow opposing defenses to make stopping him the focal point of their gameplan. Even when Ingram returns to the fold in early October, expecting Kamara to match or exceed the absurd YDS per touch (8.1 on 201 touches) he averaged he a year ago would be unfair and unrealistic. All this cynicism is basically a drawn-out way of saying that despite his immense talent and a near-guarantee that he'll get more touches, there's a very good chance that Kamara's numbers will take a hit in 2018.
-The starting receiver slot alongside budding star Michael Thomas is wide open and given Ted Ginn's well-known limitations as a receiver, Cameron Meredith has a golden opportunity to take it. Prior to missing all of 2017 with a torn ACL, the 25-year old, ex-Bears wideout turned some heads around the league by putting together a nice 2016 campaign (66 REC, 888 YDS, 4 TD) with a legit carousel of QB's (Jay Cutler, Brian Hoyer, Matt Barkley) throwing him the ball. Could those numbers be attributed to him being the only member of the receiving corps to appear in all 16 games that year? Possibly. Is it alarming that Bears didn't match the incredibly modest offer sheet the Saints signed him to (2 year/$9 million/$4.5 mil guaranteed)? Absolutely. Regardless of these potential red flags, he's still a fairly intriguing, low-risk/high-reward player that could sneak up on people and gain a semi-prominent role on this already stacked offense.
-The Saints fielding a pretty good defense (10th in points against, 17th in total yards allowed, tied for 7th in sacks, tied for 9th in takeaways) was honestly one of the biggest surprises of the 2017 season. Blown coverages and a staggering inability to slow down the running game has been such a common theme of Sean Payton's post-Super Bowl victory years in New Orleans that its absence was almost surreal. Call me naïve given their inability to sustain anything that even resembles consistent productivity on this side of the ball, but I actually think this D is going to be even better in 2018. They addressed a couple of glaring problem areas in free agency (slot corner, inside linebacker) with the additions of unheralded veterans Patrick Robinson and Demario Davis-who are both coming off career years, placing a high-ceiling rookie like Marcus Davenport alongside established wrecking ball Cameron Jordan at defensive end could elevate this already solid pass-rush to another level and I believe that they're young defensive back corps led by Ken Crawley, Marcus Williams and reigning Defensive Rookie of the Year Marshon Lattimore is absolutely legit. Only widespread regression or the return of DC Dennis Allen's pre-2017 stoogery could get in the way of stunting this group's immense potential.
Bottom Line:
If they can keep their heads screwed on and the improvement their defense showed last season wasn't a fluke, the Saints should be in contention for their 2nd straight division title and subsequent deep playoff run.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2017 Record: 5-11 (4th in NFC South)
Head Coach: Dirk Koetter (3rd season)
Notable Additions: DE Jason Pierre-Paul, C Ryan Jensen, DE Vinny Curry
Notable Departures: RB Doug Martin, DT Chris Baker, G J.R. Sweezy
-Outside of Hue Jackson, no coach stands a greater chance of being fired mid-season than Dirk Koetter. Almost all the good will he built up from his inaugural 9-7 campaign in 2016 quickly vanished following a disastrous 2017 season where the team squandered its lofty preseason expectations thanks to questionable offensive playcalling, largely horrific defensive play and down years from a number of their most valuable players (Jameis Winston, Mike Evans, Desean Jackson, Doug Martin). How he deals with the adversity of Winston's 3-game suspension and figuring out how the touches will be distributed in their questionable running committee (Jaquizz Rodgers, rookie Ronald Jones and current projected "starter" Peyton Barber) could end up playing a huge factor in deciding how long Koetter sticks around the good ol' Pirate Ship.
-Even if you set aside the necessary morality questions that come with the decision of making a man who has a checkered history of both alleged (sexual assault) and admitted (groping an Uber driver without consent) predatory sexual behavior the face of your franchise for the next decade, committing to Winston long-term would be a massive mistake. The 24-year old's raw statistics are far from awful (4,000+ yards and 20+ TD's in 2 of his 3 seasons in the league), but his accuracy woes, habit of turning the ball over in key situations and lengthy struggles against quality competition have to call his ability to be a reliable franchise quarterback into question. While his 3-game suspension stemming from the aforementioned Uber groping will likely table long-term extensions for the rest of the season, a strong 2018 from Winston would force the front office to make a decision on his future with the franchise sooner than they'd probably like to.
-Offensive line play has been a massive crutch for this team over the past several years and with a pair of notorious, turnover prone QB's currently topping the depth chart (Winston, Ryan Fitzpatrick) and weak rushing attack trying to establish some momentum after a very 2017 season where they ran for the 5th-least yards in the league, it's imperative that they take some steps forward in 2018. GM Jason Licht understood something needed to be done to help get this line out of their extended funk and did his part by cutting ties with free agent bust J.R. Sweezy, and signing center free agent Ryan Jensen to a lucrative deal (4 years/$42 million/$22 mil guaranteed) in free agency. However, I don't know if these moves will be enough to right the ship. Demar Dotson and Ali Marpet are reliable starters that have been downright dominant at times, but the rest of the group offers up varying degrees of concern. Donovan Smith has failed to materialize into a good, let alone passable left tackle since he was selected 34th overall back in 2015, Caleb Benenoch is a converted tackle who has yet to start a regular season game at guard over the course of 3 year career so far and as great he was with the Ravens last season, Jensen has only 1 year of full-time starting experience under his belt and absolutely fits the profile of a guy who could immediately flame out after signing a big contract. Competent o-line play is essential for an offense that's trying to get back on track and I just don't have any level of confidence that this group is strong or consistent enough as a whole to get the job done.
-No amount of plays made by their respected veteran stars (Lavonte David, Brent Grimes, Gerald McCoy) could prevent this defense from being comically bad last season. They surrendered the most yards in the league (dead last against the pass, 23rd against the run), registered the least sacks (22) and thanks to a surprisingly strong takeaway total (26, tied for 7th in the league), fared slightly better in the scoring defense category (23.9 PPG, tied for 22nd in the league). How they're going to fare in 2018 is a serious coin flip. A slew of new additions (Beau Allen, Vinny Curry, Mitch Unrein, rookie Vita Vea and most notably, former Giants dynamo Jason Pierre-Paul) along the defensive line should help improver their run defense and pass rush, but a largely unchanged secondary (all 4 starters are returning and rookie corner Carlton Davis is the only new addition that appears set to receive any notable amount of playing time) will likely limit how many steps forward this group takes this season. The NFC South is not a fun division to have a poor defense in and it's going to take a series of miracles for the Bucs to not get routinely lit up again in 2018.
Bottom Line:
Much of the Bucs history has been defined by underachieving and with Koetter still steering the ship, I expect that not-so-proud tradition to remain in tact for 2018.
-Outside of Hue Jackson, no coach stands a greater chance of being fired mid-season than Dirk Koetter. Almost all the good will he built up from his inaugural 9-7 campaign in 2016 quickly vanished following a disastrous 2017 season where the team squandered its lofty preseason expectations thanks to questionable offensive playcalling, largely horrific defensive play and down years from a number of their most valuable players (Jameis Winston, Mike Evans, Desean Jackson, Doug Martin). How he deals with the adversity of Winston's 3-game suspension and figuring out how the touches will be distributed in their questionable running committee (Jaquizz Rodgers, rookie Ronald Jones and current projected "starter" Peyton Barber) could end up playing a huge factor in deciding how long Koetter sticks around the good ol' Pirate Ship.
-Even if you set aside the necessary morality questions that come with the decision of making a man who has a checkered history of both alleged (sexual assault) and admitted (groping an Uber driver without consent) predatory sexual behavior the face of your franchise for the next decade, committing to Winston long-term would be a massive mistake. The 24-year old's raw statistics are far from awful (4,000+ yards and 20+ TD's in 2 of his 3 seasons in the league), but his accuracy woes, habit of turning the ball over in key situations and lengthy struggles against quality competition have to call his ability to be a reliable franchise quarterback into question. While his 3-game suspension stemming from the aforementioned Uber groping will likely table long-term extensions for the rest of the season, a strong 2018 from Winston would force the front office to make a decision on his future with the franchise sooner than they'd probably like to.
-Offensive line play has been a massive crutch for this team over the past several years and with a pair of notorious, turnover prone QB's currently topping the depth chart (Winston, Ryan Fitzpatrick) and weak rushing attack trying to establish some momentum after a very 2017 season where they ran for the 5th-least yards in the league, it's imperative that they take some steps forward in 2018. GM Jason Licht understood something needed to be done to help get this line out of their extended funk and did his part by cutting ties with free agent bust J.R. Sweezy, and signing center free agent Ryan Jensen to a lucrative deal (4 years/$42 million/$22 mil guaranteed) in free agency. However, I don't know if these moves will be enough to right the ship. Demar Dotson and Ali Marpet are reliable starters that have been downright dominant at times, but the rest of the group offers up varying degrees of concern. Donovan Smith has failed to materialize into a good, let alone passable left tackle since he was selected 34th overall back in 2015, Caleb Benenoch is a converted tackle who has yet to start a regular season game at guard over the course of 3 year career so far and as great he was with the Ravens last season, Jensen has only 1 year of full-time starting experience under his belt and absolutely fits the profile of a guy who could immediately flame out after signing a big contract. Competent o-line play is essential for an offense that's trying to get back on track and I just don't have any level of confidence that this group is strong or consistent enough as a whole to get the job done.
-No amount of plays made by their respected veteran stars (Lavonte David, Brent Grimes, Gerald McCoy) could prevent this defense from being comically bad last season. They surrendered the most yards in the league (dead last against the pass, 23rd against the run), registered the least sacks (22) and thanks to a surprisingly strong takeaway total (26, tied for 7th in the league), fared slightly better in the scoring defense category (23.9 PPG, tied for 22nd in the league). How they're going to fare in 2018 is a serious coin flip. A slew of new additions (Beau Allen, Vinny Curry, Mitch Unrein, rookie Vita Vea and most notably, former Giants dynamo Jason Pierre-Paul) along the defensive line should help improver their run defense and pass rush, but a largely unchanged secondary (all 4 starters are returning and rookie corner Carlton Davis is the only new addition that appears set to receive any notable amount of playing time) will likely limit how many steps forward this group takes this season. The NFC South is not a fun division to have a poor defense in and it's going to take a series of miracles for the Bucs to not get routinely lit up again in 2018.
Bottom Line:
Much of the Bucs history has been defined by underachieving and with Koetter still steering the ship, I expect that not-so-proud tradition to remain in tact for 2018.
Projected Standings:
1.New Orleans Saints (11-5)
2.Atlanta Falcons (10-6)
3.Carolina Panthers (8-8)
4.Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-12)
Tuesday, August 21, 2018
Fantasy Football Sleeper Mania: 2018 Edition
Late-round steals are often times a cornerstone of success in fantasy football. Like everything else in this game/life-derailing obsession, finding these diamonds in the rough requires some stats/general knowledge of every team's depth chart, baseless speculation about how a team plan to utilize said player and above all, a whole lot of luck. Here are the guys I'd recommend taking a "calculated" risk this season.
Quarterback: Matt Ryan (Falcons) (ADP: Yahoo!: 107.3 ESPN: 108.8 NFL.com: 131.6)
How Ryan ended up going in the same range as inconsistent young QB's like Derek Carr, Marcus Mariota and Dak Prescott is beyond me. The Falcons franchise signalcaller is a perennial threat to clear 4,000 passing yards and has enough talent around him at the skill positions to conceivably improve upon his middling TD total (20) from a year ago.
Honorable Mentions: Ben Roethlisberger (Steelers), Andrew Luck (Colts), Alex Smith (Redskins)
Potential Rookie Sleeper: Sam Darnold (Jets)
Running Back: Latavius Murray (Vikings) (ADP: Yahoo!: 123.4 ESPN: 133.5 NFL.com: 146.8)
Overdrafting RB's due to the very shaky depth at the position is a harsh reality fantasy owners are going to have to deal with this season. That being said, Murray's very low price tag proves that you can still find high-upside players in the latter stages of the draft. Even if Dalvin Cook seamlessly bounces back from the torn ACL that shortened his rookie season, Murray's wealth of experience as a starter (42 in 4 healthy seasons as a pro) and proficiency around the goalline (26 TD's in the past 3 seasons) should make him an important cog in the Vikings offensive attack.
Honorable Mentions: Chris Carson (Seahawks), Corey Clement (Eagles), Duke Johnson Jr. (Browns)
Potential Rookie Sleeper: Kerryon Johnson (Lions)
Wide Receiver: Marquise Goodwin (49ers) (ADP: Yahoo!: 104.6 ESPN: 76.9 NFL.com: 121.2)
Goodwin was the top beneficiary of Jimmy Garoppolo's arrival in San Francisco last November (384 YDS and 1 TD in the final 5 games of the year) and even with sneakily productive possession receiver Pierre Garcon retuning to the fold, I don't expect that to change this season. His pretty expansive route tree, top-end speed and strong rapport with Garoppolo makes 1,000+ yards, 5-8 TD season very attainable.
Honorable Mentions: Cooper Kuup (Rams), Kelvin Benjamin (Bills), Kenny Golladay (Lions)
Potential Rookie Sleeper: Calvin Ridley (Falcons)
Tight End: Jack Doyle (Colts) (ADP: Yahoo!: 126.2 ESPN: 106.9 NFL.com: 99.9)
2-tight end sets are likely going to be a fixture on the Colts offense thanks to the addition of Eric Ebron in free agency, but Doyle's strong red zone presence (9 TD's in his 2 seasons as a starter) and benefit of being the only receiver not named T.Y. Hilton that has an established chemistry with Andrew Luck make him the TE to target in Indy.
Honorable Mentions: George Kittle (49ers), Charles Clay (Bills), Cameron Brate (Buccaneers)
Potential Rookie Sleeper: Mike Gesicki (Dolphins)
Defense/Special Teams: Baltimore Ravens (ADP: 118.8 Yahoo!: ESPN: 122.3 NFL.com: 91.6)
Terrell Suggs might be the only reminder of the Ravens dominant defenses of yesteryear, but 2018's group could sneak up on a lot of people. They have a group that can get after the QB, force turnovers and doesn't allow a lot of points to teams that don't play in Pittsburgh. A top 5 overall finish wouldn't surprise me in the slightest.
Honorable Mentions: Chicago Bears, Carolina Panthers, Tennessee Titans
Quarterback: Matt Ryan (Falcons) (ADP: Yahoo!: 107.3 ESPN: 108.8 NFL.com: 131.6)
How Ryan ended up going in the same range as inconsistent young QB's like Derek Carr, Marcus Mariota and Dak Prescott is beyond me. The Falcons franchise signalcaller is a perennial threat to clear 4,000 passing yards and has enough talent around him at the skill positions to conceivably improve upon his middling TD total (20) from a year ago.
Honorable Mentions: Ben Roethlisberger (Steelers), Andrew Luck (Colts), Alex Smith (Redskins)
Potential Rookie Sleeper: Sam Darnold (Jets)
Running Back: Latavius Murray (Vikings) (ADP: Yahoo!: 123.4 ESPN: 133.5 NFL.com: 146.8)
Overdrafting RB's due to the very shaky depth at the position is a harsh reality fantasy owners are going to have to deal with this season. That being said, Murray's very low price tag proves that you can still find high-upside players in the latter stages of the draft. Even if Dalvin Cook seamlessly bounces back from the torn ACL that shortened his rookie season, Murray's wealth of experience as a starter (42 in 4 healthy seasons as a pro) and proficiency around the goalline (26 TD's in the past 3 seasons) should make him an important cog in the Vikings offensive attack.
Honorable Mentions: Chris Carson (Seahawks), Corey Clement (Eagles), Duke Johnson Jr. (Browns)
Potential Rookie Sleeper: Kerryon Johnson (Lions)
Wide Receiver: Marquise Goodwin (49ers) (ADP: Yahoo!: 104.6 ESPN: 76.9 NFL.com: 121.2)
Goodwin was the top beneficiary of Jimmy Garoppolo's arrival in San Francisco last November (384 YDS and 1 TD in the final 5 games of the year) and even with sneakily productive possession receiver Pierre Garcon retuning to the fold, I don't expect that to change this season. His pretty expansive route tree, top-end speed and strong rapport with Garoppolo makes 1,000+ yards, 5-8 TD season very attainable.
Honorable Mentions: Cooper Kuup (Rams), Kelvin Benjamin (Bills), Kenny Golladay (Lions)
Potential Rookie Sleeper: Calvin Ridley (Falcons)
Tight End: Jack Doyle (Colts) (ADP: Yahoo!: 126.2 ESPN: 106.9 NFL.com: 99.9)
2-tight end sets are likely going to be a fixture on the Colts offense thanks to the addition of Eric Ebron in free agency, but Doyle's strong red zone presence (9 TD's in his 2 seasons as a starter) and benefit of being the only receiver not named T.Y. Hilton that has an established chemistry with Andrew Luck make him the TE to target in Indy.
Honorable Mentions: George Kittle (49ers), Charles Clay (Bills), Cameron Brate (Buccaneers)
Potential Rookie Sleeper: Mike Gesicki (Dolphins)
Defense/Special Teams: Baltimore Ravens (ADP: 118.8 Yahoo!: ESPN: 122.3 NFL.com: 91.6)
Terrell Suggs might be the only reminder of the Ravens dominant defenses of yesteryear, but 2018's group could sneak up on a lot of people. They have a group that can get after the QB, force turnovers and doesn't allow a lot of points to teams that don't play in Pittsburgh. A top 5 overall finish wouldn't surprise me in the slightest.
Honorable Mentions: Chicago Bears, Carolina Panthers, Tennessee Titans
Monday, August 20, 2018
The Best and Worst of Joel McHale
“The Best and Worst of” series chronicles the career
highlights and lowlights of an actor starring in one of the week's
new theatrical releases. This week, I take a look at the filmography
of “The Happytime Murders" star Joel McHale.
Films starring Joel McHale that I've seen:
Spider-Man 2
Lords of Dogtown
The Informant!
Spy Kids: All the Time in the World
What's Your Number?
The Big Year
Ted
Blended
Deliver Us from Evil
Adult Beginners
A Futile and Stupid Gesture
Best Performance: Ted (2012)
Few actors play slimey dirtbags better than McHale and Ted features his finest big screen portrayal of an insufferable douche to-date. While he wasn't my absolute favorite supporting character in Seth McFarlane's hilarious buddy comedy (that title goes to Flash Gordon star Sam Jones playing a hard-partying version of himself), Rex delivers his fair share of laughs and completely serves his purpose as a grating adversary to Mark Wahlberg's likable goofball protagonist.
Worst Performance: Spy Kids: All the Time in the World (2011)
It's pretty obvious that McHale only agreed to be in this so his kids could finally watch something he starred in. His indifference to the role of superspy/dad Wilbur Wilson is so vast that I actually kind of respect it. Hope your kids enjoyed the movie Joel!
Best Film: Spider-Man 2 (2004)
Before Christopher Nolan's Dark Knight trilogy and Jon Faverau's Iron Man cemented the superhero genre's global phenomenon status, Sam Rami laid down the foundation for its success with the first two/thirds of his Spider-Man trilogy. As great as the original was, Spider-Man 2 displayed a level of brilliance that only a select few films about caped crusaders since have achieved. The action scenes are terrific, Peter Parker's character arc is very well-developed and Alfred Molina's Doctor Octopus is a strong contender for the most underrated villain in the history of the genre.
Worst Film: What's Your Number? (2011)
Well hello old friend! It has been a whole month since I last got to express my deep-rooted disdain for you! If you and your overwhelming wretchedness could stay away from this series until sometime next year, I'd really appreciate it!
Regards,
Chris
Thank you for reading this week's edition of “The Best and Worst of”. The next victim of my praise and ire will be “Kin” star Zoe Kravitz.
Films starring Joel McHale that I've seen:
Spider-Man 2
Lords of Dogtown
The Informant!
Spy Kids: All the Time in the World
What's Your Number?
The Big Year
Ted
Blended
Deliver Us from Evil
Adult Beginners
A Futile and Stupid Gesture
Best Performance: Ted (2012)
Few actors play slimey dirtbags better than McHale and Ted features his finest big screen portrayal of an insufferable douche to-date. While he wasn't my absolute favorite supporting character in Seth McFarlane's hilarious buddy comedy (that title goes to Flash Gordon star Sam Jones playing a hard-partying version of himself), Rex delivers his fair share of laughs and completely serves his purpose as a grating adversary to Mark Wahlberg's likable goofball protagonist.
Worst Performance: Spy Kids: All the Time in the World (2011)
It's pretty obvious that McHale only agreed to be in this so his kids could finally watch something he starred in. His indifference to the role of superspy/dad Wilbur Wilson is so vast that I actually kind of respect it. Hope your kids enjoyed the movie Joel!
Best Film: Spider-Man 2 (2004)
Before Christopher Nolan's Dark Knight trilogy and Jon Faverau's Iron Man cemented the superhero genre's global phenomenon status, Sam Rami laid down the foundation for its success with the first two/thirds of his Spider-Man trilogy. As great as the original was, Spider-Man 2 displayed a level of brilliance that only a select few films about caped crusaders since have achieved. The action scenes are terrific, Peter Parker's character arc is very well-developed and Alfred Molina's Doctor Octopus is a strong contender for the most underrated villain in the history of the genre.
Worst Film: What's Your Number? (2011)
Well hello old friend! It has been a whole month since I last got to express my deep-rooted disdain for you! If you and your overwhelming wretchedness could stay away from this series until sometime next year, I'd really appreciate it!
Regards,
Chris
Thank you for reading this week's edition of “The Best and Worst of”. The next victim of my praise and ire will be “Kin” star Zoe Kravitz.
Friday, August 17, 2018
2018 NFL Preview: AFC South
Houston Texans
2018 Record: 4-12 (4th in AFC South)
Head Coach: Bill O'Brien (5th season)
Notable Additions: S Tyrann Mathieu, CB Aaron Colvin, G Zach Fulton
Notable Departures: ILB Brian Cushing, S Marcus Gilchrist, TE C.J. Fiedorowicz (retired)
-Despite being the 3rd QB drafted, Deshaun Watson ended up being the absolute darling of the 2017 QB class. He surpassed pretty much every reasonable expectation placed upon him by establishing himself as a big time playmaker that stifled defenses with his big arm and elusive running ability pretty much right away. Sadly for the Texans, Watson's dream season came to a sudden tragic end when he tore his ACL during a non-contract drill less than a week after setting a record for most TD's thrown by a rookie QB in a single month (16). Now a fully healthy Watson will look to pick back up where he left off during his 6 start run that thrust him into the forefront of the best young QB conversation. Considering how far they fell in his absence (they lost 7 of their last 8 games), the Texans 1000% need Watson to replicate the game-breaking, dual-threat success he displayed a year ago if they want to return to the playoffs in 2018. Being asked to carry a team pretty much squarely on your shoulders is a lot for guy whose played less than a half of season of professional football, especially since he's coming off an injury and his ability to handle this challenge will go long a way in answering the burning question of whether or not Watson was a flash-in-the-pan sensation or the true savior for an organization that hasn't had a truly great QB in its 17-year existence.
-If you take a look at the Pro Football Focus analytics, the 2017 Texans offensive line graded out as a bottom 5 line for the PAST 10 YEARS. Because some teams refuse to learn from their mistakes, 3 of the 5 guys (left tackle Julie'n Davenport, center Nick Martin, right guard Senio Kelemete) responsible for this horrendous performance are returning to their staring spots. Newly-hired GM Brian Gaine's idea of an improvement was swamping out draft bust Xavier Su'a-Filo for Zach Fulton, who was well below average as the Chiefs plug-and-play 6th offensive lineman for the past 4 seasons, at the left guard. The sad part is this move seems like its going to be legitimate upgrade. The lone reason for optimism upfront comes in the form of rookie right tackle Mathais Rankin. While he has a reputation for getting beat by powerful edge rushers in pass-protection, Rankin is a long, athletic tackle with a strong track record as a run-blocker. Watson's mobility will certainly help cover up some of the stink, but as the Seahawks have proved for the bulk of Russell Wilson's tenure with the team, horrific line play can prevent a talented offense from reaching its true potential.
-While injuries to prominent members of their defensive front early in the season (Whitney Mercilus, J.J. Watt) and the subsequent negative effect their absence had on the pass-rush certainly didn't help matters, the Texans secondary was an absolute disgrace last season. Kevin Johnson, who put together his worst season as a pro, was a complete liability in coverage, Jonathan Joseph finally started to show his age and the safeties not named Marcus Gilchrist were all pretty terrible. Unlike their offensive line, Cain decided to invest in some assets by signing Aaron Colvin and Tyrann Mathieau in free agency, and using their top draft pick on Stanford product Justin Reid. While the upside is there with all of these guys, their presence might not be enough to significantly improve this unit that ranked 24th against the pass a year ago. Colvin was a merely decent slot corner while he was with the Jaguars, Mathieau is a massive injury risk whose play has slipped a bit over the past couple of seasons and Reid's aggressive, downhill playing style could led to a ton of missed tackles at the next level. Pair these secondary issues with the very real possibility that back-to-back major injuries has effectively limited the explosiveness that made J.J. Watt such a destructive, unguardable force on the defensive line to and you have a previously feared defense that appears to be in the midst of a rapid decline.
-As a fantasy football nerd who has a particular affinity for the receiver position, nothing toys with my heart quite like a boom-or-bust option. Fantasy players opinions on guys like Torrey Smith, Mike Wallace and Kenny Stills shift between over-the-top praise and venomous hatred so often that they should all legally change their names to Dow Jones. Texans starter Will Fuller could very well be the king of this particularly frustrating portion of the WR population. If you're a cynic, you'll point to the fact that the Notre Dame product has displayed shaky hands, inconsistent play and a gift for suffering hamstring strains at inopportune times during his first 2 seasons in the league. If you have a sunnier disposition, you'll cite his top-end speed and 7 TD run while Watson was under center last season as reason why he'll breakout in 2018. As unbelievable as DeAndre Hopkins is, having a running mate that's a true threat as a playmaker could help establish this offense as a true juggernaut, but relying on Fuller to be that guy is as risky of a bet as you can possibly make in the league.
Bottom Line:
I wish I had some more thoughtful analysis, but the Texans are the hardest team to gauge in the AFC right now. A division win or last finish would sincerely garner the same stoic, completely unsurprised reaction from me.
-Despite being the 3rd QB drafted, Deshaun Watson ended up being the absolute darling of the 2017 QB class. He surpassed pretty much every reasonable expectation placed upon him by establishing himself as a big time playmaker that stifled defenses with his big arm and elusive running ability pretty much right away. Sadly for the Texans, Watson's dream season came to a sudden tragic end when he tore his ACL during a non-contract drill less than a week after setting a record for most TD's thrown by a rookie QB in a single month (16). Now a fully healthy Watson will look to pick back up where he left off during his 6 start run that thrust him into the forefront of the best young QB conversation. Considering how far they fell in his absence (they lost 7 of their last 8 games), the Texans 1000% need Watson to replicate the game-breaking, dual-threat success he displayed a year ago if they want to return to the playoffs in 2018. Being asked to carry a team pretty much squarely on your shoulders is a lot for guy whose played less than a half of season of professional football, especially since he's coming off an injury and his ability to handle this challenge will go long a way in answering the burning question of whether or not Watson was a flash-in-the-pan sensation or the true savior for an organization that hasn't had a truly great QB in its 17-year existence.
-If you take a look at the Pro Football Focus analytics, the 2017 Texans offensive line graded out as a bottom 5 line for the PAST 10 YEARS. Because some teams refuse to learn from their mistakes, 3 of the 5 guys (left tackle Julie'n Davenport, center Nick Martin, right guard Senio Kelemete) responsible for this horrendous performance are returning to their staring spots. Newly-hired GM Brian Gaine's idea of an improvement was swamping out draft bust Xavier Su'a-Filo for Zach Fulton, who was well below average as the Chiefs plug-and-play 6th offensive lineman for the past 4 seasons, at the left guard. The sad part is this move seems like its going to be legitimate upgrade. The lone reason for optimism upfront comes in the form of rookie right tackle Mathais Rankin. While he has a reputation for getting beat by powerful edge rushers in pass-protection, Rankin is a long, athletic tackle with a strong track record as a run-blocker. Watson's mobility will certainly help cover up some of the stink, but as the Seahawks have proved for the bulk of Russell Wilson's tenure with the team, horrific line play can prevent a talented offense from reaching its true potential.
-While injuries to prominent members of their defensive front early in the season (Whitney Mercilus, J.J. Watt) and the subsequent negative effect their absence had on the pass-rush certainly didn't help matters, the Texans secondary was an absolute disgrace last season. Kevin Johnson, who put together his worst season as a pro, was a complete liability in coverage, Jonathan Joseph finally started to show his age and the safeties not named Marcus Gilchrist were all pretty terrible. Unlike their offensive line, Cain decided to invest in some assets by signing Aaron Colvin and Tyrann Mathieau in free agency, and using their top draft pick on Stanford product Justin Reid. While the upside is there with all of these guys, their presence might not be enough to significantly improve this unit that ranked 24th against the pass a year ago. Colvin was a merely decent slot corner while he was with the Jaguars, Mathieau is a massive injury risk whose play has slipped a bit over the past couple of seasons and Reid's aggressive, downhill playing style could led to a ton of missed tackles at the next level. Pair these secondary issues with the very real possibility that back-to-back major injuries has effectively limited the explosiveness that made J.J. Watt such a destructive, unguardable force on the defensive line to and you have a previously feared defense that appears to be in the midst of a rapid decline.
-As a fantasy football nerd who has a particular affinity for the receiver position, nothing toys with my heart quite like a boom-or-bust option. Fantasy players opinions on guys like Torrey Smith, Mike Wallace and Kenny Stills shift between over-the-top praise and venomous hatred so often that they should all legally change their names to Dow Jones. Texans starter Will Fuller could very well be the king of this particularly frustrating portion of the WR population. If you're a cynic, you'll point to the fact that the Notre Dame product has displayed shaky hands, inconsistent play and a gift for suffering hamstring strains at inopportune times during his first 2 seasons in the league. If you have a sunnier disposition, you'll cite his top-end speed and 7 TD run while Watson was under center last season as reason why he'll breakout in 2018. As unbelievable as DeAndre Hopkins is, having a running mate that's a true threat as a playmaker could help establish this offense as a true juggernaut, but relying on Fuller to be that guy is as risky of a bet as you can possibly make in the league.
Bottom Line:
I wish I had some more thoughtful analysis, but the Texans are the hardest team to gauge in the AFC right now. A division win or last finish would sincerely garner the same stoic, completely unsurprised reaction from me.
Indianapolis Colts
2018 Record: 4-12 (3rd in AFC South)
Head Coach: Frank Reich (1st season)
Notable Additions: G Matt Slauson, TE Eric Ebron, T Austin Howard
Notable Departures: CB Rashaan Melvin, WR Donte Moncrief, RB Frank Gore
-How Andrew Luck fares in his long-awaited return from shoulder surgery is the only Colts narrative that really matters this season. As meaningless as the preseason is, Luck's sharp performance in the opener (6/9, 64 YDS) last Thursday should at least help put to rest some of the palpable unease that has built up within this organization and fanbase during his 21-month stint away from football. The road back to reestablishing himself as one of the game's premier QB's remains incredibly daunting, but even a small glimmer of hope like this prior to the start of the season make this team's 2018 forecast look a whole lot sunnier.
-An obstacle in Luck's comeback that is in no way his fault is the lack of continuity GM Chris Ballard has established at the receiver position. Sure he has an excellent rapport longtime top receiver T.Y.Hilton and tight end Jack Doyle, but asking a guy to get acquainted with a largely overhauled receiving corps while he's in the midst of trying to readjust to the nuanced complexities of playing quarterback after an extended absence just seems like a bad idea. In addition to the lack of familiarity these guys have with Luck, these new WR's/TE's just aren't very good. Eric Ebron has been consistently mediocre since he was drafted in 2014 and while Donte Moncrief wasn't exactly a stud, Chester Rodgers or newcomer Ryan Grant don't seem like they're qualified to fill his role as a legit redzone threat. This lack of depth and talent could very well prove to be irrelevant if #12 comes back firing on all cylinders, but this potential personnel issue has remained strangely under-the-radar as the season approaches.
-Josh McDaniels last-minute decision to refuse the Colts HC gig has dominated the narrative around this team to the point where I don't think a lot of people outside of Indy even know who ended up taking over for Chuck Pagano. This anonymity could be a blessing or a curse for Frank Reich, the long-time assistant who became an intriguing HC candidate after playing a role in the birth of the Eagles lethal offense over the past couple of seasons. In the wake of the McDaniels debacle, a situation where the locker room is highly motivated to buy into his philosophy to change the stigma that's surrounded this organization since the end of the Manning era or choose to ignore him because he was handed the job at the last minute both seem completely conceivable. I expect the front office to have a super short leash with him and if shit goes really south, he'll more than likely be out of the building by New Year's.
-For the first time since the Jeff Saturday/Ryan Diem/Ryan Lilja-era, there's reason for optimism when looking at the Colts offensive line. Center Ryan Kelly has played pretty well when healthy, new additions Austin Howard (right tackle) and Matt Slauson (right guard) are both respectable players with loads of starting experience, rookie left guard Quenton Nelson has the strength, footwork and nastiness to be a force on the interior line right away and this line's longtime ray of light in the darkness Anthony Castonzo is a borderline elite left tackle whose in the middle of his prime. It's absolutely imperative that this group keeps Luck upright while he is on the comeback trail and even the possibility of him not being under siege at all times is a welcome reprieve from the norm for this team.
-Matt Eberflus' inaugural season as an NFL defensive coordinator is going to be quite the challenge. With a shaky linebacking corps anchored by journeyman vets like Antonio Morrison and Najee Goode, a non-existent pass-rush and an unreliable corner group that just lost its only true asset (Rashaan Melvin) in free agency, the longtime Cowboys assistant is going to have to get super creative if he wants to build a unit that's even semi-passable, let alone competent. A pair of promising young safeties (Malik Hooker, T.J. Green) and the presence of a few respectable vets (John Simon, Jabbal Sheard, Al Woods) in his defensive line rotation is likely going to be the only thing that keeps him sane as he goes through the inevitable growing pains of overhauling a defense that is very short on talent and depth.
Bottom Line:
Even if Luck ends up seamlessly returning to form, the Colts don't seem to have enough talent to make a significant impact this season.
-An obstacle in Luck's comeback that is in no way his fault is the lack of continuity GM Chris Ballard has established at the receiver position. Sure he has an excellent rapport longtime top receiver T.Y.Hilton and tight end Jack Doyle, but asking a guy to get acquainted with a largely overhauled receiving corps while he's in the midst of trying to readjust to the nuanced complexities of playing quarterback after an extended absence just seems like a bad idea. In addition to the lack of familiarity these guys have with Luck, these new WR's/TE's just aren't very good. Eric Ebron has been consistently mediocre since he was drafted in 2014 and while Donte Moncrief wasn't exactly a stud, Chester Rodgers or newcomer Ryan Grant don't seem like they're qualified to fill his role as a legit redzone threat. This lack of depth and talent could very well prove to be irrelevant if #12 comes back firing on all cylinders, but this potential personnel issue has remained strangely under-the-radar as the season approaches.
-Josh McDaniels last-minute decision to refuse the Colts HC gig has dominated the narrative around this team to the point where I don't think a lot of people outside of Indy even know who ended up taking over for Chuck Pagano. This anonymity could be a blessing or a curse for Frank Reich, the long-time assistant who became an intriguing HC candidate after playing a role in the birth of the Eagles lethal offense over the past couple of seasons. In the wake of the McDaniels debacle, a situation where the locker room is highly motivated to buy into his philosophy to change the stigma that's surrounded this organization since the end of the Manning era or choose to ignore him because he was handed the job at the last minute both seem completely conceivable. I expect the front office to have a super short leash with him and if shit goes really south, he'll more than likely be out of the building by New Year's.
-For the first time since the Jeff Saturday/Ryan Diem/Ryan Lilja-era, there's reason for optimism when looking at the Colts offensive line. Center Ryan Kelly has played pretty well when healthy, new additions Austin Howard (right tackle) and Matt Slauson (right guard) are both respectable players with loads of starting experience, rookie left guard Quenton Nelson has the strength, footwork and nastiness to be a force on the interior line right away and this line's longtime ray of light in the darkness Anthony Castonzo is a borderline elite left tackle whose in the middle of his prime. It's absolutely imperative that this group keeps Luck upright while he is on the comeback trail and even the possibility of him not being under siege at all times is a welcome reprieve from the norm for this team.
-Matt Eberflus' inaugural season as an NFL defensive coordinator is going to be quite the challenge. With a shaky linebacking corps anchored by journeyman vets like Antonio Morrison and Najee Goode, a non-existent pass-rush and an unreliable corner group that just lost its only true asset (Rashaan Melvin) in free agency, the longtime Cowboys assistant is going to have to get super creative if he wants to build a unit that's even semi-passable, let alone competent. A pair of promising young safeties (Malik Hooker, T.J. Green) and the presence of a few respectable vets (John Simon, Jabbal Sheard, Al Woods) in his defensive line rotation is likely going to be the only thing that keeps him sane as he goes through the inevitable growing pains of overhauling a defense that is very short on talent and depth.
Bottom Line:
Even if Luck ends up seamlessly returning to form, the Colts don't seem to have enough talent to make a significant impact this season.
Jacksonville Jaguars
2018 Record: 11-5 (1st in AFC South)
Head Coach: Doug Marrone (2nd season)
Notable Additions: G Andrew Norwell, WR Donte Moncrief, TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins
Notable Departures: WR Allen Robinson, WR Allen Hurns, ILB Paul Pouslunzy (retired)
-The emergence of narratives questioning an upstart team ability to sustain success following an impressive season is an inevitable and easily justifiable part of the football world. I don't expect the Jaguars to be one of the teams that fizzles out after a surprisingly successful season. While I'll grant their detractors that they're a largely young team with big personalities that benefited from having a pretty soft schedule last season, their ballsy performances in both of their road playoff games (at Pittsburgh and New England) last season indicates to me that this team isn't intimidated by expectations or big moments. That fearlessness paired with their dedication to the defensive side of the football, a coach in Doug Marrone that seems like he knows what he's doing and the presence of numerous strong veteran leaders (Calias Campbell, Barry Church, Telvin Smith, Malik Jackson) that should help keep them grounded makes long-term success seems very attainable in Jacksonville.
-2017 was a huge season in the development of Blake Bortles. After earning himself a reputation as one of the league's most erratic, turnover-prone quarterbacks over the first 3 years of his career, the 26-year old came into his own last season by displaying vastly improved decisionmaking (exemplified by his career-low 13 INT's) and poise under pressure. The next hurdle Bortles needs to clear in 2018 will be applying that improved decisionmaking to downfield throws without reverting to his terrible old habit of mindlessly chucking passes into crowds of opposing defenders 20+ yards away. Bortles' arm is too valuable of a weapon to not utilize and offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett needs to work with him to refine it then eventually trust him to use it in big spots to help make this offense more versatile. This addition to his game isn't likely to turn him into a Hall-of-Famer overnight, but it would absolutely help him evolve past the "game manager" tag that's currently being applied to him.
-If you caught any Jaguars games last season, you probably noticed that they had a hard time scoring TD's when Leonard Fournette was getting stuffed in the redzone. Top receivers Marqise Lee and Keelan Cole both put together fine seasons (702 and 748 YDS respectively), but neither of them are physical enough to consistently create space and make contested catches in the endzone. The front office addressed this matter extensively during the offseason by adding Donte Moncrief, Austin Seferian-Jenkins and rookie D.J. Chark to the fold. While Chark has the top-end speed that could allow him to turn into something more at the next level, these guys are all non-flashy, big-bodied receivers who aren't afraid to get into all-out wars with defenders and have a pretty strong track record of reeling-in TD's. Committing this many capital to what should technically be secondary redzone options might not have the been best asset-managing move ever concocted by the Dave Caldwell/Tom Coughlin braintrust, but it should end up paying dividends for this offense.
-As expected, Fournette was the focal point of this offense last season. Despite missing 3 games with an ankle injury, he still managed to touch the ball a whopping 304 times during his rookie season. The front office further affirmed their commitment to the 23-year old running back by handing Andrew Norwell the heftiest contract in the history of the guard position (5 years/$66.5 million/$30 mil guaranteed). Norwell has been one of the most well-rounded, consistently dominant guards in the league over the past few seasons and adding him to a line that displayed considerable improvement a year ago could help this unit flirt with greatness this year. Plus putting a reportedly fully healthy Fournette behind an improved offensive line could allow him to easily spit in the face of the dreaded sophomore slump that tends to plague this position.
Bottom Line:
While I'm not ready to anoint them the new kings of the AFC quite yet, I believe the Jags moxie, intelligence and defensive talent will be enough to make them legit contenders for the foreseeable future.
-The emergence of narratives questioning an upstart team ability to sustain success following an impressive season is an inevitable and easily justifiable part of the football world. I don't expect the Jaguars to be one of the teams that fizzles out after a surprisingly successful season. While I'll grant their detractors that they're a largely young team with big personalities that benefited from having a pretty soft schedule last season, their ballsy performances in both of their road playoff games (at Pittsburgh and New England) last season indicates to me that this team isn't intimidated by expectations or big moments. That fearlessness paired with their dedication to the defensive side of the football, a coach in Doug Marrone that seems like he knows what he's doing and the presence of numerous strong veteran leaders (Calias Campbell, Barry Church, Telvin Smith, Malik Jackson) that should help keep them grounded makes long-term success seems very attainable in Jacksonville.
-2017 was a huge season in the development of Blake Bortles. After earning himself a reputation as one of the league's most erratic, turnover-prone quarterbacks over the first 3 years of his career, the 26-year old came into his own last season by displaying vastly improved decisionmaking (exemplified by his career-low 13 INT's) and poise under pressure. The next hurdle Bortles needs to clear in 2018 will be applying that improved decisionmaking to downfield throws without reverting to his terrible old habit of mindlessly chucking passes into crowds of opposing defenders 20+ yards away. Bortles' arm is too valuable of a weapon to not utilize and offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett needs to work with him to refine it then eventually trust him to use it in big spots to help make this offense more versatile. This addition to his game isn't likely to turn him into a Hall-of-Famer overnight, but it would absolutely help him evolve past the "game manager" tag that's currently being applied to him.
-If you caught any Jaguars games last season, you probably noticed that they had a hard time scoring TD's when Leonard Fournette was getting stuffed in the redzone. Top receivers Marqise Lee and Keelan Cole both put together fine seasons (702 and 748 YDS respectively), but neither of them are physical enough to consistently create space and make contested catches in the endzone. The front office addressed this matter extensively during the offseason by adding Donte Moncrief, Austin Seferian-Jenkins and rookie D.J. Chark to the fold. While Chark has the top-end speed that could allow him to turn into something more at the next level, these guys are all non-flashy, big-bodied receivers who aren't afraid to get into all-out wars with defenders and have a pretty strong track record of reeling-in TD's. Committing this many capital to what should technically be secondary redzone options might not have the been best asset-managing move ever concocted by the Dave Caldwell/Tom Coughlin braintrust, but it should end up paying dividends for this offense.
-As expected, Fournette was the focal point of this offense last season. Despite missing 3 games with an ankle injury, he still managed to touch the ball a whopping 304 times during his rookie season. The front office further affirmed their commitment to the 23-year old running back by handing Andrew Norwell the heftiest contract in the history of the guard position (5 years/$66.5 million/$30 mil guaranteed). Norwell has been one of the most well-rounded, consistently dominant guards in the league over the past few seasons and adding him to a line that displayed considerable improvement a year ago could help this unit flirt with greatness this year. Plus putting a reportedly fully healthy Fournette behind an improved offensive line could allow him to easily spit in the face of the dreaded sophomore slump that tends to plague this position.
Bottom Line:
While I'm not ready to anoint them the new kings of the AFC quite yet, I believe the Jags moxie, intelligence and defensive talent will be enough to make them legit contenders for the foreseeable future.
Tennessee Titans
2018 Record: 9-7 (2nd in AFC South)
Head Coach: Mike Vrabel (1st season)
Notable Additions: CB Malcolm Butler, RB Dion Lewis, DT Bennie Logan
Notable Departures: RB DeMarco Murray (retired), ILB Avery Williamson, S Da'Norris Searcy
-Many tears were shed in the Greater Nashville-area when Mike Mularkey was fired after the Titans blowout loss against the Patriots. As much as I clowned on the architect of the Exotic Smashmouth offense since he was promoted to head coach in 2016, firing him at the end of a season where he made the playoffs and led the team to an improbable comeback win against the Chiefs in the Wild Card round was an unwarranted, coldblooded move by GM Jon Robinson. Making the abrupt head coaching change even more questionable was the decision to replace Mularkey with someone like Mike Vrabel. As poor as his track record was prior to his tenure with the Titans, at least Mularkey had multiple head coaching stints and over 20 years of experience as an assistant on his resume before he landed the gig. Vrabel is a retired player whose only been coaching in the NFL for a hot minute (4 seasons) who oversaw a well below average albeit somewhat banged-up defense during his 1 season as a coordinator with the Texans. Throw in the fact that he's known for being a temperamental hardass and you have an ideal formula for a bust of a head coach hire. I'll give him credit for bringing in some talented assistants to help him out (Matt LaFluer, Dean Pees), but that isn't enough to erase the heavy skepticism I have towards Vrabel's coaching prowess and leadership skills.
-Robinson's infatuation with all things Patriots also carried over to his free-agent signings. After inking Logan Ryan to a 4-year deal last offseason, he doubled down on ex-Belichick guys by giving multi-year deals to running back Dion Lewis and cornerback Malcolm Butler. As gimmicky as it seems given Robinson's lengthy past employment with that organization, these signings did help address some of the Titans of the biggest needs. Lewis should be an ideal shifty, dual-threat complement to power back Derrick Henry while the arrival of Butler, who was a borderline top 10 corner before his underwhelming 2017 campaign, gives them the top-flight man coverage guy they lacked a year ago. Stay tuned next year when Robinson breaks the proverbial bank to sign Shaq Mason and Chris Hogan.
-Despite earning the 1st playoff appearance and victory of his career, Marcus Mariota just wasn't very good last year. A shakier pocket presence, poor touch in the redzone and more erratic decisionmaking resulted in the 24-year old easily posting the worst numbers of his career to-date (13 TD's, 15 INT, 79.3 QBR, 7.14 YPA). New offensive coordinator Matt LaFleur could prove to be exactly the kind of shakeup Mariota needs to get his swag back. LaFluer was able to get an unexpectedly great season out of Jared Goff in 2017, so there's no reason to believe that he couldn't help Mariota get back to the sound albeit relatively conservative style of quarterbacking he displayed in the past after a season that was nowhere near as bad as Goff's horrific rookie year.
-Where the hell did this Corey Davis breakout season hype come from? Did that crazy TD catch against the Patriots in the playoffs suddenly set off a relatively widespread belief that he was going to be the next TO or Moss? Like a lot of people, I was bullish on Davis when he came out of Western Michigan, but nothing he did last year outside of that postseason game against the Patriots was particularly impressive, and the stats pretty much back that up (375 YDS and 0 TD's on 33 receptions in 11 regular season games). While playing in LaFluer's pretty aggressive offense should result in an uptick in targets, a 1,000+ yard breakout campaign seems like a far-fetched fantasy at the moment-especially when you consider Mariota's rushing ability and the strong likelihood of their running backs being prominently featured in the passing game.
Bottom Line:
This team fell ass backwards into the playoffs a year ago and I quite simply don't think Vrabel has what it takes to get them back there this season.
Projected Standings:
1.Jacksonville Jaguars (10-6)
2.Houston Texans (8-8)
3.Tennessee Titans (7-9)
4.Indianapolis Colts (6-10)
-Many tears were shed in the Greater Nashville-area when Mike Mularkey was fired after the Titans blowout loss against the Patriots. As much as I clowned on the architect of the Exotic Smashmouth offense since he was promoted to head coach in 2016, firing him at the end of a season where he made the playoffs and led the team to an improbable comeback win against the Chiefs in the Wild Card round was an unwarranted, coldblooded move by GM Jon Robinson. Making the abrupt head coaching change even more questionable was the decision to replace Mularkey with someone like Mike Vrabel. As poor as his track record was prior to his tenure with the Titans, at least Mularkey had multiple head coaching stints and over 20 years of experience as an assistant on his resume before he landed the gig. Vrabel is a retired player whose only been coaching in the NFL for a hot minute (4 seasons) who oversaw a well below average albeit somewhat banged-up defense during his 1 season as a coordinator with the Texans. Throw in the fact that he's known for being a temperamental hardass and you have an ideal formula for a bust of a head coach hire. I'll give him credit for bringing in some talented assistants to help him out (Matt LaFluer, Dean Pees), but that isn't enough to erase the heavy skepticism I have towards Vrabel's coaching prowess and leadership skills.
-Robinson's infatuation with all things Patriots also carried over to his free-agent signings. After inking Logan Ryan to a 4-year deal last offseason, he doubled down on ex-Belichick guys by giving multi-year deals to running back Dion Lewis and cornerback Malcolm Butler. As gimmicky as it seems given Robinson's lengthy past employment with that organization, these signings did help address some of the Titans of the biggest needs. Lewis should be an ideal shifty, dual-threat complement to power back Derrick Henry while the arrival of Butler, who was a borderline top 10 corner before his underwhelming 2017 campaign, gives them the top-flight man coverage guy they lacked a year ago. Stay tuned next year when Robinson breaks the proverbial bank to sign Shaq Mason and Chris Hogan.
-Despite earning the 1st playoff appearance and victory of his career, Marcus Mariota just wasn't very good last year. A shakier pocket presence, poor touch in the redzone and more erratic decisionmaking resulted in the 24-year old easily posting the worst numbers of his career to-date (13 TD's, 15 INT, 79.3 QBR, 7.14 YPA). New offensive coordinator Matt LaFleur could prove to be exactly the kind of shakeup Mariota needs to get his swag back. LaFluer was able to get an unexpectedly great season out of Jared Goff in 2017, so there's no reason to believe that he couldn't help Mariota get back to the sound albeit relatively conservative style of quarterbacking he displayed in the past after a season that was nowhere near as bad as Goff's horrific rookie year.
-Where the hell did this Corey Davis breakout season hype come from? Did that crazy TD catch against the Patriots in the playoffs suddenly set off a relatively widespread belief that he was going to be the next TO or Moss? Like a lot of people, I was bullish on Davis when he came out of Western Michigan, but nothing he did last year outside of that postseason game against the Patriots was particularly impressive, and the stats pretty much back that up (375 YDS and 0 TD's on 33 receptions in 11 regular season games). While playing in LaFluer's pretty aggressive offense should result in an uptick in targets, a 1,000+ yard breakout campaign seems like a far-fetched fantasy at the moment-especially when you consider Mariota's rushing ability and the strong likelihood of their running backs being prominently featured in the passing game.
Bottom Line:
This team fell ass backwards into the playoffs a year ago and I quite simply don't think Vrabel has what it takes to get them back there this season.
Projected Standings:
1.Jacksonville Jaguars (10-6)
2.Houston Texans (8-8)
3.Tennessee Titans (7-9)
4.Indianapolis Colts (6-10)
Wednesday, August 15, 2018
2018 NFL Preview: NFC North
Chicago Bears
2017 Record: 5-11 (4th in NFC North)
Head Coach: Matt Nagy (1st season)
Notable Additions: WR Allen Robinson, TE Trey Burton, WR Taylor Gabriel
Notable Departures: G Josh Sitton, WR Cameron Meredith, OLB Pernell McPhee
-If you are the type of person that seeks out football-related content on the infallible internet, you've more than likely come across a piece in recent weeks entitled "WHY THE 2018 CHICAGO BEARS ARE THIS YEAR'S LA RAMS" or something of the like. On the surface, the parallels are easy to draw and understand. Like the 2017 Rams, the 2018 Bears brought in a young, offensive wizard whose garnered tons of praise in league circles for his inventive schemes/playcalling to be their new head coach (Matt Nagy), have a 2nd-year quarterback (Mitch Trubisky) whose forgettable rookie season has largely been attributed to the conservative nature of his former, defensive-minded coach's (John Fox) offense and added several receivers that are tailor-made for their uptempo, vertical scheme (Allen Robinson, Taylor Gabriel, Trey Burton, rookie Anthony Miller). As a cynical prick who has watched this organization screw up at almost every turn over the past decade, I'm completely baffled by how the Bears became such an overwhelmingly popular to be the league's most improved team this season. Sure everything went great for the Rams last year with guys that have similar profiles, but have these bizarrely optimistic individuals taken a serious look at the credentials and current realities of the individuals that they're prematurely crowning as new forces in the league? Nagy was only the Chiefs OC for 2 seasons and almost always ceded playcalling duties to Andy Reid during his tenure, every member of their overhauled receiving corps has some kind of red flag that ranges from medical (Robinson) to lack of starting experience (Burton) and thanks to a combination of ultraconservative playcalling and horrific receivers that almost never gained separation from their defenders that derailed any chance he had of showing what he's capable of as a passer during his rookie year, it's impossible to gauge where Trubisky currently is in his development. A quick turnaround could prove to be in the cards if all of these question marks end up working out in near-perfect fashion like they did for the 2017 Rams, I just think it's absurd and reckless to drop that type of strong take before the team has taken the field in a meaningful game under this new regime.
-I doubt anyone is happier about the arrival of Nagy and a potentially functional passing offense in Chicago than Jordan Howard. The 23-year old running back has scrapped and clawed to put together back-to-back to 1,100+-yard seasons against near-constant stacked boxes and if the Bears can open up the rushing lanes even a little bit with the establishment of a respectable vertical attack, Howard could very well end up posting his best numbers to-date.
-Retaining Vic Fangio as defensive coordinator was a huge win for this team. As miserable as their offense was under Fox, Fangio helped this relatively young defense steadily improve over the past 3 seasons. Convincing him to stay aboard with Nagy and continue to help this promising group led by defensive end Akiem Hicks, inside linebacker Danny Trevathan and their trio of unheralded young defensive backs (Kyle Fuller, Adrian Amos, Eddie Jackson) develop into a potential powerhouse was a brilliant decision by the front office. If this defense can be at least as good as they were last year (9th in points allowed, 7th in pass defense, 11th in run defense, tied for 7th sacks, tied for 13th in takeaways), this turnaround that I'm refusing to buy into might have the slightest chance of actually coming to fruition.
-After ending a lengthy holdout fueled by concerns over the potential damage the league's controversial new "no leading with the helmet when you make a tackle" rule could do to his salary on Monday night, Roquan Smith better come in ready to work his ass off prior to the start of the regular season. This holdout paired with the boneheaded move of getting his team-issued iPad stolen from his unlocked car in early May has resulted in Smith, who was widely touted as a "safe", pro-ready prospect, making nothing but awful impressions since the Bears selected him 8th overall in this year's draft and strong work ethic moving forward would go a long way in restoring the sterling reputation he had while he was at the University of Georgia. Joey Bosa made all 12 Chargers fans forgot about his petty, extended holdout with a strong rookie season and as a member of a team whose fanbase tends to put a very high value on the inside linebacker position, it's now absolutely crucial that Smith goes out and does the same.
Bottom Line:
Despite the many reasons for optimism down the line, I don't think the Bears have enough depth or proven offensive talent to crawl out of the basement out of this incredibly tough division in 2018.
-If you are the type of person that seeks out football-related content on the infallible internet, you've more than likely come across a piece in recent weeks entitled "WHY THE 2018 CHICAGO BEARS ARE THIS YEAR'S LA RAMS" or something of the like. On the surface, the parallels are easy to draw and understand. Like the 2017 Rams, the 2018 Bears brought in a young, offensive wizard whose garnered tons of praise in league circles for his inventive schemes/playcalling to be their new head coach (Matt Nagy), have a 2nd-year quarterback (Mitch Trubisky) whose forgettable rookie season has largely been attributed to the conservative nature of his former, defensive-minded coach's (John Fox) offense and added several receivers that are tailor-made for their uptempo, vertical scheme (Allen Robinson, Taylor Gabriel, Trey Burton, rookie Anthony Miller). As a cynical prick who has watched this organization screw up at almost every turn over the past decade, I'm completely baffled by how the Bears became such an overwhelmingly popular to be the league's most improved team this season. Sure everything went great for the Rams last year with guys that have similar profiles, but have these bizarrely optimistic individuals taken a serious look at the credentials and current realities of the individuals that they're prematurely crowning as new forces in the league? Nagy was only the Chiefs OC for 2 seasons and almost always ceded playcalling duties to Andy Reid during his tenure, every member of their overhauled receiving corps has some kind of red flag that ranges from medical (Robinson) to lack of starting experience (Burton) and thanks to a combination of ultraconservative playcalling and horrific receivers that almost never gained separation from their defenders that derailed any chance he had of showing what he's capable of as a passer during his rookie year, it's impossible to gauge where Trubisky currently is in his development. A quick turnaround could prove to be in the cards if all of these question marks end up working out in near-perfect fashion like they did for the 2017 Rams, I just think it's absurd and reckless to drop that type of strong take before the team has taken the field in a meaningful game under this new regime.
-I doubt anyone is happier about the arrival of Nagy and a potentially functional passing offense in Chicago than Jordan Howard. The 23-year old running back has scrapped and clawed to put together back-to-back to 1,100+-yard seasons against near-constant stacked boxes and if the Bears can open up the rushing lanes even a little bit with the establishment of a respectable vertical attack, Howard could very well end up posting his best numbers to-date.
-Retaining Vic Fangio as defensive coordinator was a huge win for this team. As miserable as their offense was under Fox, Fangio helped this relatively young defense steadily improve over the past 3 seasons. Convincing him to stay aboard with Nagy and continue to help this promising group led by defensive end Akiem Hicks, inside linebacker Danny Trevathan and their trio of unheralded young defensive backs (Kyle Fuller, Adrian Amos, Eddie Jackson) develop into a potential powerhouse was a brilliant decision by the front office. If this defense can be at least as good as they were last year (9th in points allowed, 7th in pass defense, 11th in run defense, tied for 7th sacks, tied for 13th in takeaways), this turnaround that I'm refusing to buy into might have the slightest chance of actually coming to fruition.
-After ending a lengthy holdout fueled by concerns over the potential damage the league's controversial new "no leading with the helmet when you make a tackle" rule could do to his salary on Monday night, Roquan Smith better come in ready to work his ass off prior to the start of the regular season. This holdout paired with the boneheaded move of getting his team-issued iPad stolen from his unlocked car in early May has resulted in Smith, who was widely touted as a "safe", pro-ready prospect, making nothing but awful impressions since the Bears selected him 8th overall in this year's draft and strong work ethic moving forward would go a long way in restoring the sterling reputation he had while he was at the University of Georgia. Joey Bosa made all 12 Chargers fans forgot about his petty, extended holdout with a strong rookie season and as a member of a team whose fanbase tends to put a very high value on the inside linebacker position, it's now absolutely crucial that Smith goes out and does the same.
Bottom Line:
Despite the many reasons for optimism down the line, I don't think the Bears have enough depth or proven offensive talent to crawl out of the basement out of this incredibly tough division in 2018.
Detroit Lions
2017 Record: 9-7 (2nd in NFC North)
Head Coach: Matt Patricia (1st season)
Notable Additions: RB LeGarrette Blount, OLB Devon Kennard, CB DeShawn Shead
Notable Departures: ILB Tahir Whitehead, DT Haloti Ngata, TE Eric Ebron
-Jim Caldwell was the only head coach firing that took me by surprise this offseason. While I'm not under the illusion that he was some type of coaching savant, this team went to the playoffs twice, rarely loafed on-the-field and only had a single losing season (7-9 back in 2015) during his 4 years running the show in Detroit. Replacing Caldwell with longtime Patriots defensive coordinator Matt Patricia is far from a lock to help elevate this franchise above their previous standing of perennial wild card contender in the talent-loaded NFC. Patricia may have a strong track record as a DC and his decision to retain the highly respected Jim Bob Cooter as OC should help make his transition a bit easier than it is for most newly-minted coaches, but history has shown us that being a disciple of Bill Belichick doesn't automatically make you a great leader of a team. In fact, almost every one of his assistants that have left the Patriots to take head coaching gigs (Romeo Crennel, Josh McDaniels Charlie Weis on the college level) elsewhere have been unmitigated disasters. GM Bob Quinn, another former Patriots employee, better hope his old pal Patricia ends being an exception to this Belichick curse like Bill O'Brien and not just the latest decrepit branch in the gridiron legend's largely withered coaching tree.
-I find the Lions staggering inability to run the football to be one of the more fascinating stories in recent NFL history. They haven't a 1,000-yard rusher since Reggie Bush all the way back in 2013 and have struggled to lock down a guy who can even stay on the field for more than a handful of games at a time since then. After watching heavily-touted prospect Ameer Abdullah fail in spectacular fashion whenever he was healthy to suit up over the past few years, Quinn drafted Kerryon Johnson to be the next potential savior at the position. On paper, Johnson seems more than qualified to be the guy to give this paltry rushing attack some juice. His status as a complete, 3-down back with made him a fixture on Auburn's offense and his strong preseason debut last week has earned him a spot on just about every fantasy football sleeper/dark horse rookie of the year candidate list out there. However, Johnson isn't the first RB with an excellent college resume and some training camp/preseason buzz to walk through these halls in recent years (Abdullah was the exact same way) and if he ends up failing, I'll become even more convinced that this organization has an unbreakable hex at the position since their failure in the late 90's forced Barry Sanders into a sadness-driven early retirement.
-Even though he's the most pivotal figure on an otherwise middling defensive front, only inking Ziggy Ansah to the franchise tag was a smart move by the shot callers in the front office. His 12-sack 2017 was extremely back-loaded (half of them came in the final 2 games of the season) and consistency is an issue that has plagued him over the course of his 5 year career thus far. While I doubt a super long-term contract will materialize for him given his age (he turned 29 in May) and questionable durability (he's only appeared in all 16 games twice in his career), he could earn himself a nice 2 or 3 year deal if he can put together another solid campaign as the anchor of this pass-rush this season.
-Kenny Golladay holds the key to this already potent passing attack becoming even more deadly. The 2017 3rd-round pick out of the University of Northern Illinois and Matthew Stafford had a very nice rapport in the early going last year before a hamstring injury sidelined him for 5 games and hampered his production when he eventually returned to the field in mid-November. Early word is that Golladay has looked great throughout the offseason program and appears set to be a factor as Marvin Jones Jr.'s running mate at outside receiver. He's not likely to surpass Jones and slot virtuoso Golden Tate in the pecking order, but Golladay could be a very nice 3rd option that posts 800+ yards in Cooter's largely vertical scheme if he stays healthy.
Bottom Line:
Unless Patricia greatly exceeds or falls beneath expectations, this largely unchanged Lions roster should produce their typical respectable albeit not overly impressive results.
-Jim Caldwell was the only head coach firing that took me by surprise this offseason. While I'm not under the illusion that he was some type of coaching savant, this team went to the playoffs twice, rarely loafed on-the-field and only had a single losing season (7-9 back in 2015) during his 4 years running the show in Detroit. Replacing Caldwell with longtime Patriots defensive coordinator Matt Patricia is far from a lock to help elevate this franchise above their previous standing of perennial wild card contender in the talent-loaded NFC. Patricia may have a strong track record as a DC and his decision to retain the highly respected Jim Bob Cooter as OC should help make his transition a bit easier than it is for most newly-minted coaches, but history has shown us that being a disciple of Bill Belichick doesn't automatically make you a great leader of a team. In fact, almost every one of his assistants that have left the Patriots to take head coaching gigs (Romeo Crennel, Josh McDaniels Charlie Weis on the college level) elsewhere have been unmitigated disasters. GM Bob Quinn, another former Patriots employee, better hope his old pal Patricia ends being an exception to this Belichick curse like Bill O'Brien and not just the latest decrepit branch in the gridiron legend's largely withered coaching tree.
-I find the Lions staggering inability to run the football to be one of the more fascinating stories in recent NFL history. They haven't a 1,000-yard rusher since Reggie Bush all the way back in 2013 and have struggled to lock down a guy who can even stay on the field for more than a handful of games at a time since then. After watching heavily-touted prospect Ameer Abdullah fail in spectacular fashion whenever he was healthy to suit up over the past few years, Quinn drafted Kerryon Johnson to be the next potential savior at the position. On paper, Johnson seems more than qualified to be the guy to give this paltry rushing attack some juice. His status as a complete, 3-down back with made him a fixture on Auburn's offense and his strong preseason debut last week has earned him a spot on just about every fantasy football sleeper/dark horse rookie of the year candidate list out there. However, Johnson isn't the first RB with an excellent college resume and some training camp/preseason buzz to walk through these halls in recent years (Abdullah was the exact same way) and if he ends up failing, I'll become even more convinced that this organization has an unbreakable hex at the position since their failure in the late 90's forced Barry Sanders into a sadness-driven early retirement.
-Even though he's the most pivotal figure on an otherwise middling defensive front, only inking Ziggy Ansah to the franchise tag was a smart move by the shot callers in the front office. His 12-sack 2017 was extremely back-loaded (half of them came in the final 2 games of the season) and consistency is an issue that has plagued him over the course of his 5 year career thus far. While I doubt a super long-term contract will materialize for him given his age (he turned 29 in May) and questionable durability (he's only appeared in all 16 games twice in his career), he could earn himself a nice 2 or 3 year deal if he can put together another solid campaign as the anchor of this pass-rush this season.
-Kenny Golladay holds the key to this already potent passing attack becoming even more deadly. The 2017 3rd-round pick out of the University of Northern Illinois and Matthew Stafford had a very nice rapport in the early going last year before a hamstring injury sidelined him for 5 games and hampered his production when he eventually returned to the field in mid-November. Early word is that Golladay has looked great throughout the offseason program and appears set to be a factor as Marvin Jones Jr.'s running mate at outside receiver. He's not likely to surpass Jones and slot virtuoso Golden Tate in the pecking order, but Golladay could be a very nice 3rd option that posts 800+ yards in Cooter's largely vertical scheme if he stays healthy.
Bottom Line:
Unless Patricia greatly exceeds or falls beneath expectations, this largely unchanged Lions roster should produce their typical respectable albeit not overly impressive results.
Green Bay Packers
2017 Record: 7-9 (3rd in NFC North)
Head Coach: Mike McCarthy (11th season)
Notable Additions: TE Jimmy Graham, CB Tramon Williams, DE Muhammad Wilkerson
Notable Departures: WR Jordy Nelson, CB Damarious Randall, S Morgan Burnett
-Cheeseheads rejoice because Aaron Rodgers appears to be fully healthy after missing the bulk of last season with his 62nd broken collarbone. His durability and ability to continue return from injury without a regression in play is naturally going to come into question as he approaches his 35th birthday in December, but right now there's no reason to expect anything less than his typical jaw-dropping brilliance...….
-…..However, you'd have to be very naïve to not consider what would happen if Rodgers was to miss a significant amount of time again this season. The product was downright painful once Rodgers went down last year as Brett Hundley's largely uninspiring play led them to an ugly 3-8 record in his absence, which subsequently resulted in them missing the playoffs for the 1st time since 2008. Similarly grim results should be expected if shit goes sideways once again in 2018. Hundley could very well be thrown into the unforgiving fire again if Rodgers goes down, but 2nd-year quarterback DeShone Kizer, who was acquired from the Browns in the Damarious Randall trade in late March, now appears to be in-line for the top backup job. While Kizer should benefit from being in a stable environment with a respectable coaching staff and learning from one of the all-time greats at the position, he's currently a very questionable decisionmaker (league-high 22 INT's last season) with horrific accuracy (53.6% CMP) and an 0-15 record as a starter that you don't want turn the keys of your offense over to right now. Whether it's Kizer or Hundley taking over for Rodgers, there simply isn't enough talent on this team to make up for that swift of a decline in quarterback and remain a top-tier team .
-With Jordy Nelson officially out of the equation and Randall Cobb's best days seemingly behind him, it's time to start seriously questioning the talent level of the Packers receiving corps. Once you get past rising star/TD machine Davante Adams at the top spot, scanning their depth chart evokes an alarming string of question marks and shoulder shrugs. Geronimo Allison has been a non-factor during his first 2 seasons as a pro, the aforementioned Cobb has regressed into nothing but a middling short-yardage option over the past couple of seasons, all 3 rookies (J'Mon Moore, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Equanimeous St. Brown) they brought in are unfinished products at best and as gaudy as his TD numbers were while he was with the Seahawks (16 over the past 2 seasons), big ticket free agent pickup Jimmy Graham is a nearly 32-year old tight end with diminishing speed that can't do much outside of the redzone at this point in his career. Rodgers referred to this group as "piss poor" after a weak day of practice earlier in training camp and I wouldn't even be remotely surprised if that ended up being the status quo for this group all season long.
-Hell must've froze over because the Packers finally fired Dom Capers after routinely leading this defense to bottom-half finishes in sacks, yards allowed, takeaways, scoring defense and pretty much any other notable category you can think of that wasn't run defense for nearly a decade. New front office head Brian Gutekunst went completely against the conservative, time-honored mold established by his predecessor Ted Thompson by making the audacious move of hiring Mike Pettine to be their new DC. Pettine hasn't coached in the league since he was fired as the Browns HC in December 2015 and after dealing with Capers' passive, zone-driven scheme for so long, players could be taken aback by his relentless, blitz-happy style. That being said, there's no denying that Pettine has a nice little war chest of talent that he could very well make the most of. Ex-Jets defensive end Muhmmad Wilkerson, who played under Pettine for the first 2 years of his career, adds some depth to an already stacked defensive line led by the vastly underrated run-stuffer Mike Daniels, Blake Martinez is quite possibly the best young inside linebacker in the league that no one is talking about and even with the loss of longtime starting safety Morgan Burnett in free agency, their defensive back group has an ideal mix of established veteran talent (Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, Tramon Williams, Davon House) and high-upside young players (Kevin King, Jaire Alexander, Josh Jackson). If Pettine can return to the level of productivity he consistently enjoyed during his glory days as the coordinator for the Jets and Bills, this defense could end up turning some heads this season.
Bottom Line:
As long as Rodgers is healthy, the Packers will be near the top of the list of contenders in this conference.
-Cheeseheads rejoice because Aaron Rodgers appears to be fully healthy after missing the bulk of last season with his 62nd broken collarbone. His durability and ability to continue return from injury without a regression in play is naturally going to come into question as he approaches his 35th birthday in December, but right now there's no reason to expect anything less than his typical jaw-dropping brilliance...….
-…..However, you'd have to be very naïve to not consider what would happen if Rodgers was to miss a significant amount of time again this season. The product was downright painful once Rodgers went down last year as Brett Hundley's largely uninspiring play led them to an ugly 3-8 record in his absence, which subsequently resulted in them missing the playoffs for the 1st time since 2008. Similarly grim results should be expected if shit goes sideways once again in 2018. Hundley could very well be thrown into the unforgiving fire again if Rodgers goes down, but 2nd-year quarterback DeShone Kizer, who was acquired from the Browns in the Damarious Randall trade in late March, now appears to be in-line for the top backup job. While Kizer should benefit from being in a stable environment with a respectable coaching staff and learning from one of the all-time greats at the position, he's currently a very questionable decisionmaker (league-high 22 INT's last season) with horrific accuracy (53.6% CMP) and an 0-15 record as a starter that you don't want turn the keys of your offense over to right now. Whether it's Kizer or Hundley taking over for Rodgers, there simply isn't enough talent on this team to make up for that swift of a decline in quarterback and remain a top-tier team .
-With Jordy Nelson officially out of the equation and Randall Cobb's best days seemingly behind him, it's time to start seriously questioning the talent level of the Packers receiving corps. Once you get past rising star/TD machine Davante Adams at the top spot, scanning their depth chart evokes an alarming string of question marks and shoulder shrugs. Geronimo Allison has been a non-factor during his first 2 seasons as a pro, the aforementioned Cobb has regressed into nothing but a middling short-yardage option over the past couple of seasons, all 3 rookies (J'Mon Moore, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Equanimeous St. Brown) they brought in are unfinished products at best and as gaudy as his TD numbers were while he was with the Seahawks (16 over the past 2 seasons), big ticket free agent pickup Jimmy Graham is a nearly 32-year old tight end with diminishing speed that can't do much outside of the redzone at this point in his career. Rodgers referred to this group as "piss poor" after a weak day of practice earlier in training camp and I wouldn't even be remotely surprised if that ended up being the status quo for this group all season long.
-Hell must've froze over because the Packers finally fired Dom Capers after routinely leading this defense to bottom-half finishes in sacks, yards allowed, takeaways, scoring defense and pretty much any other notable category you can think of that wasn't run defense for nearly a decade. New front office head Brian Gutekunst went completely against the conservative, time-honored mold established by his predecessor Ted Thompson by making the audacious move of hiring Mike Pettine to be their new DC. Pettine hasn't coached in the league since he was fired as the Browns HC in December 2015 and after dealing with Capers' passive, zone-driven scheme for so long, players could be taken aback by his relentless, blitz-happy style. That being said, there's no denying that Pettine has a nice little war chest of talent that he could very well make the most of. Ex-Jets defensive end Muhmmad Wilkerson, who played under Pettine for the first 2 years of his career, adds some depth to an already stacked defensive line led by the vastly underrated run-stuffer Mike Daniels, Blake Martinez is quite possibly the best young inside linebacker in the league that no one is talking about and even with the loss of longtime starting safety Morgan Burnett in free agency, their defensive back group has an ideal mix of established veteran talent (Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, Tramon Williams, Davon House) and high-upside young players (Kevin King, Jaire Alexander, Josh Jackson). If Pettine can return to the level of productivity he consistently enjoyed during his glory days as the coordinator for the Jets and Bills, this defense could end up turning some heads this season.
Bottom Line:
As long as Rodgers is healthy, the Packers will be near the top of the list of contenders in this conference.
Minnesota Vikings
2017 Record: 13-3 (1st in NFC North)
Head Coach: Mike Zimmer (5th season)
Notable Additions: QB Kirk Cousins, DT Sheldon Richardson, WR Kendall Wright
Notable Departures: RB Jerick McKinnon, G Joe Berger (retired), QB Case Keenum
-Signing a legit franchise quarterback is a pretty good way to get over your franchise's 6th consecutive loss in an NFC Championship Game. Journeyman veteran Case Keenum's success made for a compelling Cinderella story last season, but Kirk Cousins represents a significant upgrade across the board. After a so-so start to his career with the Redskins, Cousins has established himself as a top 10-12 QB in the league by throwing for over 4,000 yards and completing at least 64% of his passes in 3 consecutive seasons. Pair Cousins polished skill set with an electric receiving duo in Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen and an offensive coordinator in John DeFilippo who helped groom Carson Wentz over the past 2 seasons, and it's hard to not envision this team as a strong Super Bowl contender.
-Signing a legit franchise quarterback is a pretty good way to get over your franchise's 6th consecutive loss in an NFC Championship Game. Journeyman veteran Case Keenum's success made for a compelling Cinderella story last season, but Kirk Cousins represents a significant upgrade across the board. After a so-so start to his career with the Redskins, Cousins has established himself as a top 10-12 QB in the league by throwing for over 4,000 yards and completing at least 64% of his passes in 3 consecutive seasons. Pair Cousins polished skill set with an electric receiving duo in Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen and an offensive coordinator in John DeFilippo who helped groom Carson Wentz over the past 2 seasons, and it's hard to not envision this team as a strong Super Bowl contender.
-Mike Zimmer and DeFilippo would be wise to not give Dalvin Cook a full workload during the inaugural stretch of the season. He may been cruising when he went down with a torn ACL in early October (444 YDS from scrimmage and 2 TD's in 4 games) and have the benefit of playing on an offense with a functional line and a passing attack that's too strong to stack the tackle box against, but considering his injury history and the sheer amount of time he's been on the shelf, there's no sense in prominently featuring him until at least late October. Even with Jerick McKinnon bolting for the 49ers in free agency, the Vikings still enough depth at the position to have the luxury of easing Cook back into the backfield rotation. Latavius Murray, who stepped up big time once Cook went down last year, is a veteran back whose enjoyed quite a bit of success as a starter in the past (2,696 rushing YDS and 26 TD's over the past 3 seasons) and Mack Brown showed some splash potential during his time with the Redskins. Cook figures to be a huge part of this offense moving forward and if they want to preserve his game-breaking impact for when it matters most, they'll minimize his touches in the early going.
-The Jaguars defense may have commanded all the headlines with their takeaways, sacks and TD's, but the Vikings D was pretty much a brick wall last year. As evidenced by their absurd scoring defense (15.8 points allowed per game, #1 in the league), rushing yards allowed (83.6 YPG, #2 in the league) and passing yards allowed (192.4 YPG) stats, George Edwards' troops were arguably the hardest team to move the ball against during the 2017 regular season. However, this eyebrow-raising prowess was nowhere to be found during their aforementioned epic meltdown against the Eagles as they allowed 38 points and 456 yards of total offense (110 rushing, 346 passing). I think this collapse could prove to be a sign from the football gods that this group overachieved a year ago. The Eagles exposed their weaknesses at linebacker and corner by keeping the tempo up and spreading the ball around for 4 quarters. With the minimal changes in personnel (the additions of rookie corner Mike Hughes and veteran defensive tackle Sheldon Richardson were the only notable transactions this offseason, you have to believe that teams will employ strategies that are at least similar this season and have some success doing so. Plus they don't have a strong enough pass-rush (their 37 sacks in 2017 tied for 17th most in the league) or force enough turnovers (they only had 19 in 2017, which was tied for the 9th least) to make up for a decrease in the stout, fundamentally-sound play they displayed last year that made them so hard to move the ball against. A complete meltdown would be a shock considering the proven game-changers they have on the defensive line (Everson Griffen, Linval Joseph) and back-end (Xavier Rhodes, Harrison Smith), but don't be surprised if they slip outside of the top 10 in scoring defense this season.
Bottom Line:
With QB Kirk Cousins joining a balanced, deep team that was just 1 game shy of making the Super Bowl last season, the Vikings appear to a serious threat to win a championship this season.
Projected Standings:
1.Minnesota Vikings (12-4)
2.Green Bay Packers (10-6)
3.Detroit Lions (8-8)
4.Chicago Bears (6-10)
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