Wednesday, August 15, 2018

2018 NFL Preview: NFC North

Chicago Bears
2017 Record: 5-11 (4th in NFC North)
Head Coach: Matt Nagy (1st season)
Notable Additions: WR Allen Robinson, TE Trey Burton, WR Taylor Gabriel 
Notable Departures: G Josh Sitton, WR Cameron Meredith, OLB Pernell McPhee
-If you are the type of person that seeks out football-related content on the infallible internet, you've more than likely come across a piece in recent weeks entitled "WHY THE 2018 CHICAGO BEARS ARE THIS YEAR'S LA RAMS" or something of the like. On the surface, the parallels are easy to draw and understand. Like the 2017 Rams, the 2018 Bears brought in a young, offensive wizard whose garnered tons of praise in league circles for his inventive schemes/playcalling to be their new head coach (Matt Nagy), have a 2nd-year quarterback (Mitch Trubisky) whose forgettable rookie season has largely been attributed to the conservative nature of his former, defensive-minded coach's (John Fox) offense and added several receivers that are tailor-made for their uptempo, vertical scheme (Allen Robinson, Taylor Gabriel, Trey Burton, rookie Anthony Miller). As a cynical prick who has watched this organization screw up at almost every turn over the past decade, I'm completely baffled by how the Bears became such an overwhelmingly popular to be the league's most improved team this season. Sure everything went great for the Rams last year with guys that have similar profiles, but have these bizarrely optimistic individuals taken a serious look at the credentials and current realities of the individuals that they're prematurely crowning as new forces in the league? Nagy was only the Chiefs OC for 2 seasons and almost always ceded playcalling duties to Andy Reid during his tenure, every member of their overhauled receiving corps has some kind of red flag that ranges from medical (Robinson) to lack of starting experience (Burton) and thanks to a combination of ultraconservative playcalling and horrific receivers that almost never gained separation from their defenders that derailed any chance he had of showing what he's capable of as a passer during his rookie year, it's impossible to gauge where Trubisky currently is in his development. A quick turnaround could prove to be in the cards if all of these question marks end up working out in near-perfect fashion like they did for the 2017 Rams, I just think it's absurd and reckless to drop that type of strong take before the team has taken the field in a meaningful game under this new regime.

-I doubt anyone is happier about the arrival of Nagy and a potentially functional passing offense in Chicago than Jordan Howard. The 23-year old running back has scrapped and clawed to put together back-to-back to 1,100+-yard seasons against near-constant stacked boxes and if the Bears can open up the rushing lanes even a little bit with the establishment of a respectable vertical attack, Howard could very well end up posting his best numbers to-date.

-Retaining Vic Fangio as defensive coordinator was a huge win for this team. As miserable as their offense was under Fox, Fangio helped this relatively young defense steadily improve over the past 3 seasons. Convincing him to stay aboard with Nagy and continue to help this promising group led by defensive end Akiem Hicks, inside linebacker Danny Trevathan and their trio of unheralded young defensive backs (Kyle Fuller, Adrian Amos, Eddie Jackson) develop into a potential powerhouse was a brilliant decision by the front office. If this defense can be at least as good as they were last year (9th in points allowed, 7th in pass defense, 11th in run defense, tied for 7th sacks, tied for 13th in takeaways), this turnaround that I'm refusing to buy into might have the slightest chance of actually coming to fruition.

-After ending a lengthy holdout fueled by concerns over the potential damage the league's controversial new "no leading with the helmet when you make a tackle" rule could do to his salary on Monday night, Roquan Smith better come in ready to work his ass off prior to the start of the regular season. This holdout paired with the boneheaded move of getting his team-issued iPad stolen from his unlocked car in early May has resulted in Smith, who was widely touted as a "safe", pro-ready prospect, making nothing but awful impressions since the Bears selected him 8th overall in this year's draft and strong work ethic moving forward would go a long way in restoring the sterling reputation he had while he was at the University of Georgia. Joey Bosa made all 12 Chargers fans forgot about his petty, extended holdout with a strong rookie season and as a member of a team whose fanbase tends to put a very high value on the inside linebacker position, it's now absolutely crucial that Smith goes out and does the same.

Bottom Line:
Despite the many reasons for optimism down the line, I don't think the Bears have enough depth or proven offensive talent to crawl out of the basement out of this incredibly tough division in 2018.

Detroit Lions
2017 Record: 9-7 (2nd in NFC North)
Head Coach: Matt Patricia (1st season)
Notable Additions: RB LeGarrette Blount, OLB Devon Kennard, CB DeShawn Shead 
Notable Departures: ILB Tahir Whitehead, DT Haloti Ngata, TE Eric Ebron
-Jim Caldwell was the only head coach firing that took me by surprise this offseason. While I'm not under the illusion that he was some type of coaching savant, this team went to the playoffs twice, rarely loafed on-the-field and only had a single losing season (7-9 back in 2015) during his 4 years running the show in Detroit. Replacing Caldwell with longtime Patriots defensive coordinator Matt Patricia is far from a lock to help elevate this franchise above their previous standing of perennial wild card contender in the talent-loaded NFC. Patricia may have a strong track record as a DC and his decision to retain the highly respected Jim Bob Cooter as OC should help make his transition a bit easier than it is for most newly-minted coaches, but history has shown us that being a disciple of Bill Belichick doesn't automatically make you a great leader of a team. In fact, almost every one of his assistants that have left the Patriots to take head coaching gigs (Romeo Crennel, Josh McDaniels Charlie Weis on the college level) elsewhere have been unmitigated disasters. GM Bob Quinn, another former Patriots employee, better hope his old pal Patricia ends being an exception to this Belichick curse like Bill O'Brien and not just the latest decrepit branch in the gridiron legend's largely withered coaching tree.

-I find the Lions staggering inability to run the football to be one of the more fascinating stories in recent NFL history. They haven't a 1,000-yard rusher since Reggie Bush all the way back in 2013 and have struggled to lock down a guy who can even stay on the field for more than a handful of games at a time since then. After watching heavily-touted prospect Ameer Abdullah fail in spectacular fashion whenever he was healthy to suit up over the past few years, Quinn drafted Kerryon Johnson to be the next potential savior at the position. On paper, Johnson seems more than qualified to be the guy to give this paltry rushing attack some juice. His status as a complete, 3-down back with made him a fixture on Auburn's offense and his strong preseason debut last week has earned him a spot on just about every fantasy football sleeper/dark horse rookie of the year candidate list out there. However, Johnson isn't the first RB with an excellent college resume and some training camp/preseason buzz to walk through these halls in recent years (Abdullah was the exact same way) and if he ends up failing, I'll become even more convinced that this organization has an unbreakable hex at the position since their failure in the late 90's forced Barry Sanders into a sadness-driven early retirement.

-Even though he's the most pivotal figure on an otherwise middling defensive front, only inking Ziggy Ansah to the franchise tag was a smart move by the shot callers in the front office. His 12-sack 2017 was extremely back-loaded (half of them came in the final 2 games of the season) and consistency is an issue that has plagued him over the course of his 5 year career thus far. While I doubt a super long-term contract will materialize for him given his age (he turned 29 in May) and questionable durability (he's only appeared in all 16 games twice in his career), he could earn himself a nice 2 or 3 year deal if he can put together another solid campaign as the anchor of this pass-rush this season.

-Kenny Golladay holds the key to this already potent passing attack becoming even more deadly. The 2017 3rd-round pick out of the University of Northern Illinois and Matthew Stafford had a very nice rapport in the early going last year before a hamstring injury sidelined him for 5 games and hampered his production when he eventually returned to the field in mid-November. Early word is that Golladay has looked great throughout the offseason program and appears set to be a factor as Marvin Jones Jr.'s running mate at outside receiver. He's not likely to surpass Jones and slot virtuoso Golden Tate in the pecking order, but Golladay could be a very nice 3rd option that posts 800+ yards in Cooter's largely vertical scheme if he stays healthy.

Bottom Line:
Unless Patricia greatly exceeds or falls beneath expectations, this largely unchanged Lions roster should produce their typical respectable albeit not overly impressive results.
    
Green Bay Packers
2017 Record: 7-9 (3rd in NFC North)
Head Coach: Mike McCarthy (11th season)
Notable Additions: TE Jimmy Graham, CB Tramon Williams, DE Muhammad Wilkerson
Notable Departures: WR Jordy Nelson, CB Damarious Randall, S Morgan Burnett
-Cheeseheads rejoice because Aaron Rodgers appears to be fully healthy after missing the bulk of last season with his 62nd broken collarbone. His durability and ability to continue return from injury without a regression in play is naturally going to come into question as he approaches his 35th birthday in December, but right now there's no reason to expect anything less than his typical jaw-dropping brilliance...….

-…..However, you'd have to be very naïve to not consider what would happen if Rodgers was to miss a significant amount of time again this season. The product was downright painful once Rodgers went down last year as Brett Hundley's largely uninspiring play led them to an ugly 3-8 record in his absence, which subsequently resulted in them missing the playoffs for the 1st time since 2008. Similarly grim results should be expected if shit goes sideways once again in 2018. Hundley could very well be thrown into the unforgiving fire again if Rodgers goes down, but 2nd-year quarterback DeShone Kizer, who was acquired from the Browns in the Damarious Randall trade in late March, now appears to be in-line for the top backup job. While Kizer should benefit from being in a stable environment with a respectable coaching staff and learning from one of the all-time greats at the position, he's currently a very questionable decisionmaker (league-high 22 INT's last season) with horrific accuracy (53.6% CMP) and an 0-15 record as a starter that you don't want turn the keys of your offense over to right now. Whether it's Kizer or Hundley taking over for Rodgers, there simply isn't enough talent on this team to make up for that swift of a decline in quarterback and remain a top-tier team .

-With Jordy Nelson officially out of the equation and Randall Cobb's best days seemingly behind him, it's time to start seriously questioning the talent level of the Packers receiving corps. Once you get past rising star/TD machine Davante Adams at the top spot, scanning their depth chart evokes an alarming string of question marks and shoulder shrugs. Geronimo Allison has been a non-factor during his first 2 seasons as a pro, the aforementioned Cobb has regressed into nothing but a middling short-yardage option over the past couple of seasons, all 3 rookies (J'Mon Moore, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Equanimeous St. Brown) they brought in are unfinished products at best and as gaudy as his TD numbers were while he was with the Seahawks (16 over the past 2 seasons), big ticket free agent pickup Jimmy Graham is a nearly 32-year old tight end with diminishing speed that can't do much outside of the redzone at this point in his career. Rodgers referred to this group as "piss poor" after a weak day of practice earlier in training camp and I wouldn't even be remotely surprised if that ended up being the status quo for this group all season long.

-Hell must've froze over because the Packers finally fired Dom Capers after routinely leading this defense to bottom-half finishes in sacks, yards allowed, takeaways, scoring defense and pretty much any other notable category you can think of that wasn't run defense for nearly a decade. New front office head Brian Gutekunst went completely against the conservative, time-honored mold established by his predecessor Ted Thompson by making the audacious move of hiring Mike Pettine to be their new DC. Pettine hasn't coached in the league since he was fired as the Browns HC in December 2015 and after dealing with Capers' passive, zone-driven scheme for so long, players could be taken aback by his relentless, blitz-happy style. That being said, there's no denying that Pettine has a nice little war chest of talent that he could very well make the most of. Ex-Jets defensive end Muhmmad Wilkerson, who played under Pettine for the first 2 years of his career, adds some depth to an already stacked defensive line led by the vastly underrated run-stuffer Mike Daniels, Blake Martinez is quite possibly the best young inside linebacker in the league that no one is talking about and even with the loss of longtime starting safety Morgan Burnett in free agency, their defensive back group has an ideal mix of established veteran talent (Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, Tramon Williams, Davon House) and high-upside young players (Kevin King, Jaire Alexander, Josh Jackson). If Pettine can return to the level of productivity he consistently enjoyed during his glory days as the coordinator for the Jets and Bills, this defense could end up turning some heads this season.

Bottom Line:
As long as Rodgers is healthy, the Packers will be near the top of the list of contenders in this conference.

Minnesota Vikings
2017 Record: 13-3 (1st in NFC North)
Head Coach: Mike Zimmer (5th season)
Notable Additions: QB Kirk Cousins, DT Sheldon Richardson, WR Kendall Wright
Notable Departures: RB Jerick McKinnon, G Joe Berger (retired), QB Case Keenum
-Signing a legit franchise quarterback is a pretty good way to get over your franchise's 6th consecutive loss in an NFC Championship Game. Journeyman veteran Case Keenum's success made for a compelling Cinderella story last season, but Kirk Cousins represents a significant upgrade across the board. After a so-so start to his career with the Redskins, Cousins has established himself as a top 10-12 QB in the league by throwing for over 4,000 yards and completing at least 64% of his passes in 3 consecutive seasons. Pair Cousins polished skill set with an electric receiving duo in Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen and an offensive coordinator in John DeFilippo who helped groom Carson Wentz over the past 2 seasons, and it's hard to not envision this team as a strong Super Bowl contender.      

-Mike Zimmer and DeFilippo would be wise to not give Dalvin Cook a full workload during the inaugural  stretch of the season. He may been cruising when he went down with a torn ACL in early October (444 YDS from scrimmage and 2 TD's in 4 games) and have the benefit of playing on an offense with a functional line and a passing attack that's too strong to stack the tackle box against, but considering his injury history and the sheer amount of time he's been on the shelf, there's no sense in prominently featuring him until at least late October. Even with Jerick McKinnon bolting for the 49ers in free agency, the Vikings still enough depth at the position to have the luxury of easing Cook back into the backfield rotation. Latavius Murray, who stepped up big time once Cook went down last year, is a veteran back whose enjoyed quite a bit of success as a starter in the past (2,696 rushing YDS and 26 TD's over the past 3 seasons) and Mack Brown showed some splash potential during his time with the Redskins. Cook figures to be a huge part of this offense moving forward and if they want to preserve his game-breaking impact for when it matters most, they'll minimize his touches in the early going.

-The Jaguars defense may have commanded all the headlines with their takeaways, sacks and TD's, but the Vikings D was pretty much a brick wall last year. As evidenced by their absurd scoring defense (15.8 points allowed per game, #1 in the league), rushing yards allowed (83.6 YPG, #2 in the league) and passing yards allowed (192.4 YPG) stats, George Edwards' troops were arguably the hardest team to move the ball against during the 2017 regular season. However, this eyebrow-raising prowess was nowhere to be found during their aforementioned epic meltdown against the Eagles as they allowed 38 points and 456 yards of total offense (110 rushing, 346 passing). I think this collapse could prove to be a sign from the football gods that this group overachieved a year ago. The Eagles exposed their weaknesses at linebacker and corner by keeping the tempo up and spreading the ball around for 4 quarters. With the minimal changes in personnel (the additions of rookie corner Mike Hughes and veteran defensive tackle Sheldon Richardson were the only notable transactions this offseason, you have to believe that teams will employ strategies that are at least similar this season and have some success doing so. Plus they don't have a strong enough pass-rush (their 37 sacks in 2017 tied for 17th most in the league) or force enough turnovers (they only had 19 in 2017, which was tied for the 9th least) to make up for a decrease in the stout, fundamentally-sound play they displayed last year that made them so hard to move the ball against. A complete meltdown would be a shock considering the proven game-changers they have on the defensive line (Everson Griffen, Linval Joseph) and back-end (Xavier Rhodes, Harrison Smith), but don't be surprised if they slip outside of the top 10 in scoring defense this season.

Bottom Line:
With QB Kirk Cousins joining a balanced, deep team that was just 1 game shy of making the Super Bowl last season, the Vikings appear to a serious threat to win a championship this season.
  
Projected Standings:
1.Minnesota Vikings (12-4)
2.Green Bay Packers (10-6)
3.Detroit Lions (8-8)
4.Chicago Bears (6-10) 

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