Eastern Conference:
1.Milwaukee Bucks: The grit and mental fortitude of this Bucks team can't really be questioned anymore after what they pulled off last season during their title run and with that longstanding boogeyman finally conquered, they've got to be the frontrunners to win it all again this year. They're still the best 2-way team in the league, the middle of their bench arguably got stronger this offseason with the additions of Rodney Hood, George Hill and Grayson Allen, and Giannis could conceivably ascend even higher at age 27 if the improved free throw shooting he displayed during the Finals ends up becoming a permanent part of his game.
2.Brooklyn Nets: Kyrie Irving's vaccine refusal-induced sidelining would be a big hit to the Nets if unreliability wasn't his signature trait as a basketball player. In 2 seasons in Brooklyn, he's played in just 74 of a possible 154 games and even if he was vaccinated or played in a market that didn't make vaccination a requirement for participating in public indoor gatherings, it would only be a matter of time before he got hurt or frustrated to the point where he decided to step away from the team for a month or some shit. The Nets have enough star power (Kevin Durant, James Harden) and bench depth (Patty Mills, Paul Millsap, Blake Griffin, Bruce Brown, DeAndre' Bembry, LaMarcus Alridge) to win a lot of games without him and his absence will go largely unnoticed after the first few games anyways since his teammates are already well-acclimated to not having him out there.
3.Atlanta Hawks: While the erraticism that comes with having a youth-driven team makes a regression after their fairy tale 2019-20 run very realistic, it's hard not to be high on what Nate McMillan could do with this dynamic corps (Trae Young, John Collins, Bogdan Bogdanovic, Clint Capela, Kevin Huerter, Cam Reddish, De'Andre Hunter) over the course of a full season.
4.Boston Celtics: After last year's flat, drama-filled season that finished with them getting steamrolled by the Nets after finishing in 7th in the East, the Celtics were forced to make some changes and I can say that I'm pretty happy with what they did. New head coach Ime Udoka commanded a ton of respect as an assistant in multiple places (Spurs, 76ers, Nets) and the players seem to have already bought into his program, newly minted front office head Brad Stevens addressed the depth concerns that former GM Danny Ainge had failed to make in the past few seasons while he was the coach by bringing in some legit veteran role players (Dennis Schroder, Josh Richardson, Al Horford, Enes Kanter-the latter two of which are entering their 2nd stint with the team) to bolster their secondary scoring and take pressure off the assorted children (Payton Pritchard, Grant Williams, Romeo Langford, Aaron Nesmith) that were tasked with doing the heavy lifting off the bench last season and most impressively, they were somehow able to get Kemba Walker's monstrous contract off their books-which should make their cap situation a lot more flexible moving forward. Now if Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown can take yet another big step forward this year and guys like Robert Williams and Marcus Smart can stay healthy for the bulk of the season, this team could be a dark horse title contender.
5.Miami Heat: The Heat returned to their familiar middle of the pack status last season after an improbable run to the Finals in 2020 and there's not much reason to believe that they won't be right back there again this year. Adding a couple of grizzled 35-year olds (Kyle Lowry, P.J. Tucker) with newish rings on their fingers to the mix and hoping that Victor Oladpio can stay healthy for long enough to reemerge as a lethal scorer for a team that desperately needs one next to Jimmy Butler just doesn't seems like the type of plan that is going to be able to vault them into the mix of top tier teams.
6.Philadelphia 76ers: Another embarrassing postseason exit combined with the puzzling and volatile situation surrounding Ben Simmons' status with the team really muddies the waters in Philly heading into this season. Given this team's history with crumbling under the pressure of adversity and Doc Rivers' increasingly alarming trend of quick playoff exits, this could be the perfect storm that causes this team to finally fall completely on its face and even potentially sink to the point where another "Process" phase begins to be considered.
7.Chicago Bulls: After landing Nikola Vucevic at the trade deadline, the Bulls remained aggressive this offseason by adding budding star point guard Lonzo Ball and productive yet completely unflashy veteran shooting guard Demar DeRozan to the fold. To put it mildly, a starting lineup with Ball, DeRozan, Vucevic, Patrick Williams and Zach LaVine is going to be a huge matchup problem for opponents based on how many different ways they can score against you and the sheer length/athletic ability they possess. The rest of their roster leaves a lot to be desired as so-so young-ish players including Alex Caruso, Derrick Jones Jr. and Coby White will be asked to contribute in major roles, but this team still represents their clear best chance of making the playoffs and returning to relevancy since Jimmy Butler got shipped out of town in 2017.
8.New York Knicks: Watching the Knicks make the playoffs last season was truly heartwarming. I mean they got obliterated in gutwrenching fashion in 5 games by the Hawks once they got there, but at least they made it to the dance for the first time in forever. Will things be better this year? Hard to say. Their solution to solving the secondary scoring problem that got them killed in the playoffs is a pretty dicey one since it primarily involves relying on Kemba Walker's knee to not explode and Evan Fournier to take on a bigger role than he's used to and Tom Thibodeau's way of doing business (starters playing huge minutes, non-stop yelling) isn't built for sustained success. Ultimately, this team's defensive prowess should be enough for them to sneak into the playoffs- even if their offense alongside Julius Randle continues to be stagnant.
9.Charlotte Hornets: Behind a career year from Terry Rozier, unbelievable rookie campaign from LaMelo Ball and strong coaching from James Borrego, the Hornets were a very pleasant surprise last year that fell just shy of the playoffs. Considering their surprising success last season, taking the next step forward in 2021-22 seems like a foregone conclusion right? Not so much. The Hornets failed to keep up with many of their non-elite peers in the East (Bulls, Celtics, Heat) when it comes to roster improvement (swapping out DeVonte Graham for Kelly Oubre is a lateral move at best) and are still too reliant on injury-prone players (Ball, Gordon Hayward) to be fully trusted as a playoff team in the deeper than given credit for Eastern Conference.
10.Indiana Pacers: Can the pretty widely respected Rick Carlisle come in and dramatically change the culture in Indiana after Nate Bjorkaen completely flopped in his lone season as the head coach? Well the Pacers brass better hope so, because they're still stuck with a collection of second-tier stars (Malcolm Brogdon, Caris LaVert, Myles Turner, Domontas Sabonis, T.J. Warren-who will be welcomed back with open arms after missing nearly all of last season with a broken foot) in their starting lineup that are good enough to get a team to .500, but not good enough to truly contend and a bench that has little going for it outside of a respectable point guard (T.J. McConnell) and a couple of streaky scorers (Jeremy Lamb, Justin Holiday). While they should be in contention for a playoff spot, anything above a 6th place finish should be considered a massive overachievement.
11.Toronto Raptors: Could this be the season the Raptors choose to blow up what's remaining of the corps that won them championship 2 seasons ago and go into a full rebuild? Quite possibly. Fred VanVleet's play notably declined last season and with Kyle Lowry gone, Pascal Siakam's reported shitty attitude should only get worse. Ultimately, it could be up to guys like Chris Boucher, OG Anunoby and relative newcomer to the franchise Gary Trent Jr.-who are all coming off career years- that end up dictating the fate of this current group.
12.Washington Wizards: The good news for the Wizards is that trading Russell Westbrook allowed them to secure a deeper roster of veteran talent (Spencer Dinwiddie, Kyle Kuzma, Montrezl Harrell, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Aaron Holiday all came over in that massive 5-team deal). The bad news is they probably won't be as good as they were last season without Westbrook and thus will subsequently be increasing the likelihood that the Bradley Beal-era comes to an end following this season, if not sooner.
13.Cleveland Cavaliers: Is there anything exciting about the Cavs right now? Watching Jarrett Allen rack up hollow double doubles in blowout losses and the prospect of the locker room continuing to rail against Collin Sexton and his hilariously inflated ego could be entertaining, but other than that the Cavs are just a generic bad NBA team whose dream scenario for this season involves somehow losing more games than the two other Eastern Conference teams I've listed below them here and getting people to pay more than $100 per game on average for courtside seats.
14.Orlando Magic: Dumping the bulk of the corps (Nikola Vucevic, Aaron Gordon, Evan Fournier) that made them a fringe playoff team for the past 4 seasons at the trade deadline last April and swapping out Steve Clifford for Jamahal Mosley at coach in July has ushered in a youth movement in Orlando. If things go as expected during the early stages of the Jonathan Issac/Wendell Carter Jr./Jalen Suggs/Markelle Fultz/Cole Anthony/R.J. Hampton-led era, the rest of the over 25 returning roster including last remaining old man from the prior regime Terrence Ross and other veteran depth pieces like Gary Harris, Et'wuan Moore and Michael Carter-Williams could find themselves leaving Orlando very soon.
15.Detroit Pistons: This season is really all about seeing if Jerami Grant is a piece worth holding onto as the team tries to rebuild, Cade Cunningham can put himself on the path to become the cornerstone player that has eluded this team since they drafted Andre Drummond back in 2012 and their returning young pieces (Killian Hayes, Isaiah Stewart, Sadiiq Bey) can further build off the decent rookie campaigns they put together last season. Aside from that, it will just be a whole lot of losing, Dwane Casey looking like he wants to jump in front of a semi-truck on the sideline and hoping that the ping pong balls fall their way again in June's draft lottery.
Western Conference:
1.Utah Jazz: Is picking a largely unchanged and unsexy Jazz team to have the best record in the West for a 2nd straight year feel like a good idea? Not at all. Would I be surprised if it doesn't happen? Absolutely not. So why I am picking them? Very simple: I have less questions about their ability to perform and stay healthy as a collective in the regular season than I do anybody else in the West right now.
2.Los Angeles Lakers: GM LeBron James: How are you going to respond to a disappointing 2020-21 season that ended in a swift 1st round playoff exit at the hands of the eventual Western Conference Champion Suns and saw most of your team's key pieces miss significant time with injury? Hold on, this can't be right you went out and traded for Russell Westbrook-a ball dominant player who has directly contributed to his team's demise in nearly every playoff run of his career and added 7 players (Carmelo Anthony, Dwight Howard, Rajon Rondo, DeAndre Jordan, Kent Bazemore, Wayne Ellington, Trevor Ariza) to the rotation that are 32 or over? And aside from you, the only players returning from last year's team are Anthony Davis and Talen Horton-Tucker? This may be your meddling masterpiece LeBron. Assembling all your friends from the nursing home and completely turning over the roster on a whim is a hilariously illogical and absurd plan, but with a little help from the injury gods, they'll probably make it work.
3.Phoenix Suns: How far the Suns go this year is going to come down to how well they can recover from their Finals loss. And it's not just the loss itself, but how it occurred (getting dominated for 4 straight games after going up 2-0). Going down in such tragic fashion on the biggest stage in the sport could crush the confidence of a mostly young roster if they let it and it's going to be up to Monty Williams, Chris Paul and their trio of rising stars (Devin Booker, DeAndre Ayton, Mikal Bridges) to prevent that from happening and ensure that contending for championship is part of the long-term foundation and not just a one-off.
4.Los Angeles Clippers: The Clippers showed tremendous resilience during the playoffs by coming back from 2-0 deficits in both of their opening round series and remaining competitive after Kawhi Leonard went on the shelf by taking the Suns to 6 games in the Conference Finals. As great as it was to see role players like Nicolas Batum, Terrance Mann and Reggie Jackson step up and fill the void in his absence, asking them to do that while Kawhi continues to be sidelined to start this season could prove to be a grueling challenge that costs them playoff seeding and puts a huge mental/physical workload strain on their key players (Paul George, Marcus Morris, Ivica Zubac, new addition Eric Bledsoe, the aforementioned role players) by the time those really important games roll around late in the year.
5.Portland Trail Blazers: Damian Lillard drama is going to be looming over everything the Blazers do this year. Dame may be too much of a professional to let it seep into the locker room or the team's play on the court, but you better believe if this team makes another quick exit from the playoffs because their latest overhauled bench (Larry Nance Jr., Cody Zeller, Ben McLemore, Tony Snell) can't consistently put up points, the defense can't make a stop in the 4th quarter or they're just simply overmatched by a better team, that the trade talk that followed him this offseason will only further intensify next offseason.
6.Dallas Mavericks: Luka Doncic got everything he wanted this offseason: A new head coach in Jason Kidd and a record-breaking $207 million extension with the Mavs. Will his happiness translate to more success on the court? Probably not. The Mavs are still a deeply flawed team with a #2 in Kristaps Porzingis that can't be relied upon to stay healthy and a supporting cast that is nowhere near as dynamic, deep or versatile as the teams that are surrounding them in the West. That being said, enduring another merely solid season in exchange for Doncic's commitment to this franchise is a deal fans and ownership will have no problem living with.
7.Denver Nuggets: Jamal Murray's absence as he continues to rehab from the torn ACL he suffered last spring is going to weigh heavily on the Nuggets. Replacement starting PG Facundo Campazzo may be a solid facilitator and plus defender that is a nice complement to a lineup that is full of natural scorers, but Murray's lethal outside shooting stroke and ability to flat-out take over games when needed will be missed while the team tries to get by on the reliable magic of Nikola Jokic, comical streakiness of the league's newest max contract recipient Michael Porter Jr and eternally untapped potential of athletic wonder Aaron Gordon.
8.Memphis Grizzlies: The return of Jaren Jackson Jr. sincerely may be the biggest addition any Western Conference team made ahead of this season. Not only does the star young big improve their floor spacing and defensive capabilities, his presence on the floor should take some of the offensive pressure off of Ja Morant-who played a lot more frantically in year 2, which resulted in him in turning the ball over at a higher rate and shooting less efficiently-and make them a much more well-oiled machine than they were last year. If their role players (Kyle Anderson, Dillion Brooks, De'Anthony Melton) can continue to pop like they did in Jackson's absence with him back on the floor this year, this Grizzlies team could find themselves sneaking up the Western Conference hierarchy
9.Golden State Warriors: Klay Thompson's health is the X-factor here. If the second half of the Splash Brothers can make a real impact after missing 2 straight seasons with major injuries (torn ACL, torn Achilles), the Warriors should be a playoff team. If he's reduced to a shell of his former dominant two-way self, this season will likely be a repeat of last year where Steph Curry does enough absurd shit for them to win a decent amount of games, but the lack of scoring support from the likes of Andrew Wiggins, James Wiseman and newcomer Otto Porter keeps them out of the playoffs.
10.New Orleans Pelicans: Lonzo Ball is gone. Zion is hurt again. Brandon Ingram is available and will probably light it up per usual, but unfortunately remind everybody that he's just not good enough to will this team to the promised land alone. Their seemingly off-the-charts potential will once again not be met. At least the Stan Van Gundy experiment is over...
11.San Antonio Spurs: Rumor has it that this will be Gregg Poppovich's last season coaching the Spurs. If that's the case, it seems like Pop will be ending things on the same nondescript note as many of the other all time greats. While the departure of Demar DeRozan will provide more opportunities for the promising young trio of Dejounate Murray, Keldon Johnson and Lonnie Walker to be involved on the offensive end of the floor, there's not just enough talent on this roster for the Spurs to be taken seriously as a playoff contender in this super deep Western Conference.
12.Minnesota Timberwolves: Chris Finch's solid performance upon arriving in Minnesota last February paired with the fact that this is the best roster (Taurean Prince and Patrick Beverely are really nice additions) they've had since Jimmy Butler forced his way out of town at the beginning of the 2018-19 season has built up some justified optimism surrounding the Wolves this season. However, this team is still full of guys (Karl-Anthony Towns, Anthony Edwards, D'Angelo Russell) that have yet to prove anything outside of their ability to produce exciting high reel plays and loaded statlines in losses to get overly excited about until they prove otherwise.
13.Sacramento Kings: De'Aaron Fox has got to be the next marquee player to request a trade right? The Kings haven't even sniffed the playoffs since he was drafted in 2017, his longtime sharpshooting running mate Buddy Hield is actively being shopped by the team and none of the other young players besides Tyrese Hailburton seem to have a ceiling that's higher than decent role player. Even if Fox decides to stick with the Kings, this team just seems destined to lose forever and every basketball fan should feel awful that a player that's so electric is rotting away in NBA purgatory.
14.Oklahoma City Thunder: Enjoy your 8,000 draft picks, Lu Dort's lockdown defense and Shai Gilegious-Alexander's immense potential Thunder fans. You're going to need it while this hard-working, but not particularly talented bunch scratches and claws their way to just enough wins to fall out of the top of the lottery.
15.Houston Rockets: Adding a streaky shooter in Jalen Green to a roster that already included Kevin Porter Jr. and Danuel House just confirms that the Rockets rebuild has already transitioned into a low budget version of the Mike D'Antoni era. At least Ja'Sean Tate, Daniel Theis and Christian Wood will provide a bit of defensive help while the contested 3's are getting put up from every imaginable angle.
Playoffs:
*indicates Play-In Tournament winners
Eastern Conference:
Quarterfinals:
Bucks over Knicks*
Nets over Bulls*
Hawks over 76ers
Celtics over Heat
Semifinals:
Bucks over Celtics
Nets over Hawks
Finals:
Bucks over Nets
Western Conference:
Quarterfinals:
Jazz over Grizzlies*
Lakers over Nuggets
Suns over Mavericks
Trail Blazers over Clippers
Semifinals:
Jazz over Trail Blazers
Lakers over Suns
Conference Finals:
Jazz over Lakers
NBA Finals:
Bucks over Jazz
Season Awards:
MVP: Trae Young (Hawks)
Defensive Player of the Year: Bam Adebayo (Heat)
Sixth Man of the Year: Kendrick Nunn (Lakers)
Most Improved Player: Terrence Mann (Clippers)
Rookie of the Year: Cade Cunningham (Pistons)
Coach of the Year: Ime Udoka (Celtics)
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