Buffalo Bills
2024 Record: 13-4 (1st in AFC East)
Head Coach: Sean McDermott (9th season)
Notable Additions: DE Joey Bosa, WR Josh Palmer, CB Dane Jackson
Notable Departures: WR Amari Cooper, CB Rasul Douglas, DE Von Miller
Biggest Reason for Excitement: They're Going to Coast to Another Division Title
Here's an unsurprising fact: The Bills have won 5 consecutive AFC East titles, which means that they're the only team to win this division during this decade thus far. If they don't make it 6 straight come January, either one of their rivals put together a miracle season or Hailee Steinfeld cursed them by making a questionable statement about their success. The Dolphins retooled their roster after a disappointing 2024 campaign. The Patriots are in the middle of a rebuild. The Jets are the Jets. This should be the easiest path to winning the AFC East that they've ever had and I fully expect them to have this shit wrapped up by early December at the latest.
Biggest Reason for Concern: Lack of Splashy Additions
The Bills ended their 2024 season in a familiar position of heartbreak after narrowly losing to the Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game. This marked the 4th time in the last 5 years that the class of the AFC the last 6 years running has eliminated them from the playoffs and the 6th straight season they were eliminated before the Super Bowl. Given they're firmly entrenched as one of the best teams in the AFC and that they have the luxury of having a true star QB's who firmly in his prime at age 29, they can no longer settle for celebrating relatively deep playoff runs every year. The window where titles need to be won is here and if they don't win one now, there's a serious risk of Allen becoming the next Jim Kelly in Orchard Park.
Typically, when a team feels they are within striking distance of a title, they'll make an aggressive roster move or two to attempt better their odds of lifting the Lombardi. The Bills did not deploy this strategy. In fact, their lack of splashy moves is borderline shocking.
To be fair to them, electing to use the bulk of their available cap space to re-up or extend key players like Christian Benford, Greg Rousseau and Khalil Shakir is a sound strategy that shows that GM Brandon Beane is serious about keeping guys around that contribute to winning. That being said, pretty much running back it with the 2024 roster doesn't feel like a wise move given how serious some of their deficiencies were-particularly in the secondary (they ranked 24th in pass defense last season) and with the depth at wide receiver, linebacker and the edge. Now, they didn't completely stand pat as they brought in Joey Bosa, Michael Hoecht, Shaq Thompson, Dane Jackson, Tre'Davious White, Joshua Palmer and Elijah Moore in free agency. It's just that reuniting with a couple of corners (Jackson, White) that previously left town, kicking the tires on Bosa-whose frequent IR trips over the years have started to really catch up with him as he's coming off a pretty average 2024 season where he registered 5 sacks and 13 QB hits in 14 games, putting a pair of wideouts who've struggled to make a consistent impact (Palmer, Moore) in the pros into their rotation, bringing in an unremarkable pass-rush specialist in Hoecht that won't even be available to play until Week 8 after he serves a PED suspension and crossing your fingers that McDermott's old buddy from Carolina Thompson can turn back the clock at age 31 after playing just 6 games over the past 2 seasons following a broken fibula and torn Achillies doesn't really move the needle much. Right now, at least, it's hard to be convinced that this is a team that's in a better position to win today than they were last season and if they do ultimately fall short in 2025, it's highly likely that their unassuming offseason moves will be a big reason as to why their title drought has continued.
Key to Reaching Their Ceiling: Josh Allen Finally Coming Up Big in the Playoffs
This headline is a tad bit unfair as it implies that Allen is responsible for all of his playoff losses, which isn't the case at all. Still, the fact remains is that he's yet to put together a signature performance in these spots (his defense robbed him of this opportunity in the 2021 Divisional Round when he had that insane 27/37/329/4 TD performance at Arrowhead) and the steady respectability he's shown in most of these spots haven't been enough to get the Bills to the promised land. To prove that he's truly one of the best the game has ever seen, he needs a legacy-building run of dominance where he wills his team to a championship. He's come up big in the regular season plenty of times, his dual threat dynamism makes it easier for him to take over a game than nearly any other QB that's ever played in the league and lesser talents than him have done it numerous times over the last 20 years (Joe Flacco, Eli Manning x2, Matthew Stafford). It can and needs to be done this season in order for Allen to live up to the level of greatness that has already been bestowed upon him.
Bottom Line:
Everything is pointing to the Bills being near the top of the AFC hierarchy once again and anything short of that would be a major disappointment.
Miami Dolphins
2024 Record: 8-9 (2nd in AFC East)
Head Coach: Mike McDaniel (4th season)
Notable Additions: S Minkah Fitzpatrick, G James Daniels, TE Darren Waller
Notable Departures: CB Jalen Ramsey, S Jevon Holland, T Terron Armstead (retired)
Biggest Reason for Excitement: Bradley Chubb and Jaelan Phillips Returning
While their offense stumbled a bit for the first time under Mike McDaniel (22nd in scoring offense, 15th in passing offense, 21st in rushing offense, 25th in 3rd down conversion%, 16th in redzone offense), the Dolphins defense did a good job of keeping them in games. Anthony Weaver made his presence be known in his 1st year as DC by elevating this group into the top 10 in the league in several key categories including scoring defense (10th), pass/run D (9th) and red zone D (4th). One of the only areas where they struggled was in establishing a pass rush. They racked up a pretty lackluster 35 sacks across 17 games-which ranked 28th in the league and 16 of those came from just 2 players (rising star DT Zach Sieler, rookie Chop Robinson).
2025 could be a much different story as they're set to get back both of their starting edge rushers in Bradley Chubb and Jalean Phillips. The Dolphins were handed a uniquely difficult hand last season as Chubb didn't play a down all year as he recovered from an ACL tear suffered at the end of the 2023 season and Phillips suffered a partial ACL tear in a Week 4 contest with the Titans, which was particularly brutal after he suffered an Achillies tear that his ended 2023 season after 8 games. During the 2023 campaign, Chubb picked up 11 sacks and Phillips was well on pace for a career high after notching 6.5 in the 8 games he appeared in. Assuming Chubb and Phillips, who are 29 and 26 respectively, can return to form, this group should get an immediate boost. Putting two ferocious veteran edge rushers alongside an interior guy in Sieler that has logged back-to-back double digit sacks seasons, a rotational piece in Robinson who was pretty sensational in relatively limited playing time as a rookie (565 snaps across 17 games) and a rookie in Kenneth Grant who was one of the most productive interior pass rushers in college football during his 3 years at Michigan could be a formula for some serious pass-rushing magic.
Biggest Reason for Concern: Offensive Line
Offensive line was not a strength for the Dolphins in 2024. Despite having relatively strong continuity with 2 players starting every game (Aaron Brewer, Robert Jones) and another 2 starting 14 or 15 (Terron Armstead, Liam Eichenberg), they surrendered 43 sacks, allowed pretty constant pressure and were generally below average-to-average in the running game. This longstanding weak spot for the Dolphins became even more of a problem this offseason when Armstead-who has been excellent when healthy-retired while Jones and swing tackle Kendall Lamm-who nabbed 7 starts filling in for the oft-injured Austin Jackson at RT-departed for the Cowboys and Eagles respectively in free agency.
Assuming Eichenberg-who has been really bad at every single spot on the line he's been asked to play over the past 4 seasons-is heading to the bench to start the year, the Dolphins will be returning just 2 Week 1 starters from a year ago (Brewer-who was quietly one of the best centers in the league last year and Jackson). Currently projected to fill the other 3 spots on the line are Patrick Paul (left tackle), free agent pickup James Daniels (left guard) and rookie Jonah Savaiinaea (right guard). 2024 2nd round selection Paul marks the biggest concern of the bunch as he's not only being saddled with the burden of replacing one of the most reliable left tackles in the game over the past decade but struggled mightily across the board during his 3 starts as a rookie last year. Daniels brings a different type of concern to the table as he's a solid veteran guard with a pair of major injuries (pec tear in 2020, Achillies tear last season) on his resume at age 27. Savaiinaea has the blessing and curse of being a rookie with a clean slate but belongs to that increasingly large group of lineman coming into the league with a great size/strength combo and no real polish to speak of. To put it mildly, it doesn't feel great to have to entrust this question-mark filled group with the fate of an offense led by a QB with a troubling injury history that is desperate to get its groove back.
Key to Reaching Ceiling: An Addition by Subtraction Situation Emerging with Their Roster
After an ugly 2024 season that saw them miss the playoffs and finish on the wrong side of .500 for the first time since 2019, the Dolphins decided to shake things up a bit by retooling their roster pretty drastically. Between trade, cuts, lost free agents and retirement, the Dolphins said goodbye to many key pieces from last year's team (Jalen Ramsey, Terron Armstead, Jevon Holland, Jonnu Smith, Calias Campbell, Emmanuel Ogbah, Jordan Poyer, Kendall Fuller, Robert Jones, Kendall Lamm Raheem Mostert, Anthony Walker Jr, Siran Neal). That's a pretty significant degree for roster turnover for a team that's only 2 years removed from winning 11 games.
Amidst all of the moves that GM Chris Grier made to shake things up, it's possible that the Dolphins will be walking into the beautiful sports cliche that is addition by subtraction. As talented as the players they lost were, it became clear about halfway through last season that they didn't have the right mix of guys to be a real contender. Is there a degree of irony that Tyreek Hill survived this necessary retooling and one of the new faces tasked with changing the dynamic of the team for the better is the recently unretired idiot that fumbled Kelsey Plum then released a song blaming her for his own infidelity? Of course, but this doesn't necessarily preclude them from having a better constructed roster/locker room situation. The reshuffling of the decks is going to allow them to see what they have in young guys like Cam Smith, Malik Washington, Patrick Paul, Storm Duck and Jaylen Wright, they were able to land a bonafide star safety in Minkah Fitzpatrick from the Steelers in the Jalen Ramsey trade-which offsets some of the pain of losing one of the best corners in the league and their athleticism improved on both sides of the ball as the roster got younger on the whole-which is good for a McDaniel-coached team that is driven by speed over everything else. Crazier things have happened than a team finding themselves when nobody expected them to do, especially when that team still has plenty of high-end talent on that roster despite all of the great players they cut ties with.
Bottom Line:
Given their significant roster shakeup and inevitable lingering concerns about Tua Tagovailoa's health, they're the biggest wild card in this division right now. Anything between a complete flameout and Wild Card berth feels plausible.
New England Patriots
2024 Record: 4-13 (4th in AFC East)
Head Coach: Mike Vrabel (1st season)
Notable Additions: DE Milton Williams, WR Stefon Diggs, CB Carlton Davis
Notable Departures: CB Jonathan Jones, DE Deatrich Wise Jr., C David Andrews (retired)
Biggest Reason for Excitement: The Hiring of Mike Vrabel as Head Coach
Jerod Mayo got absolutely screwed when the Patriots let him go after leading a hopeless roster to a 4-13 record in his only year on the job. The harsh reality is that it's also true that he was woefully unprepared for the HC gig and it would've been a bad idea to bring him back after the team showed a stunning lack of discipline and improvement on a week-to-week basis under his watch. The other harsh reality surrounding the abrupt end to Mayo's brief tenure as Pats HC is that there's virtually no chance he would've been fired if recent inductee to the Patriots Hall of Fame Mike Vrabel wasn't unemployed in January. Robert Kraft is taking the most heat he's taken by far since he bought in the team in 1994 right now and there was no better way to both inspire hope that better days are ahead and continue his trend of only hiring guys that have previously been on his payroll to coach the team than bringing in Vrabel as HC.
Bullshit jokes and commentary about Kraft's way of doing business aside, Vrabel is the right guy to lead the Patriots in this moment. The final 2 seasons of Bill Belichick's run and Mayo's year at the helm were defined by a lack of structure. discipline and brutal losing that the organization hadn't seen since the early 90's. While I'd argue that Vrabel's reputation has been inflated too much by the Titans unlikely 2019 AFC Championship run, he does have an established track record of being a strong in-game coach and running the type of program that players buy into. If the glowing reports from local media are to be believed, he's already made a great impression in the building and earned the trust and respect of the locker room, which would be a huge thing for a rebuilding team that looked completely hopeless just 6 months ago.
Biggest Reason for Concern: Their Huge Roster Turnover Not Delivering Results
Coinciding with Vrabel's arrival of course, Kraft had to beat the cheap "allegations" (it's absolute hogwash that anyone would label him cheap after consistently ranking in the bottom 3 in the league in total spending across multiple decades!) by breaking out his check book for a spending spree with the hopes of jumpstarting their rebuilding efforts. The front office braintrust led by returning GM Eliot Wolf and Vrabel's old buddy from Tennessee Ryan Cowden-who spent the past 2 seasons with the Giants-went ballistic with Kraft's money in a way that isn't completely unlike the 2021 spree that saw the Patriots land Matthew Judon, Hunter Henry, Jonnu Smith, Jalen Mills, Kendrick Bourne, Davon Godchaux, Kyle Van Noy and Nelson Agholor. The massive haul of free agents they landed was headlined by Milton Williams, Stefon Diggs, Carlton Davis, Harold Landry, Robert Spillane, Morgan Moses and Garrett Bradbury. High marks were awarded for this class from pundits and rightfully so, they addressed a lot of their biggest needs and in the case of Williams and Davis, landed some of the most highly sought after players on the open market.
Given their bevvy of high draft picks and still heavily flawed roster construction, the party carried over to the draft. Like free agency, they earned high marks for their dedication to attacking needs and getting good value from top to bottom with a class that was topped by LT Will Campbell, RB TreVeyon Henderson, WR Kyle Williams, C/G Jared Wilson, DT Joshua Farmer and EDGE Bradyn Swinson.
Now, comes the part where I question whether all these efforts are going to make the level of impact that the Pats are hoping for. While they had the right idea with these moves and some of the guys they're bringing I either absolutely love (Carlton Davis should be an awesome #2 corner alongside Christian Gonzalez, TreVeyon Henderson probably has the highest floor of any RB the Patriots have drafted into their organization this century, Kyle Williams has a profile that closely resembles the shifty, versatile WR's the Pats coveted during their Brady/Belichick glory years) or have no problem with at all (Harold Landry and Robert Spillane are respectable veteran contributors with fair contracts!), many of these guys are far from safe bets to deliver on the huge expectations that have been placed upon them.
Let's start with Milton Williams, who became one of the highest paid interior defensive linemen (4 years/$104 mil/$63 mil guaranteed) in the league after earning a ring with the Eagles in February. The fact that can't be ignored when looking at Williams impressive numbers from 2022 and 2024 (over these 2 seasons, he registered 9 sacks, 16 QB hits and 16 TFL's) are that he put those up numbers as part of the most loaded, superhumanly talented front 7 rotation in football. What happens when you place a rotational DL who is accustomed to playing roughly 400-500 snaps per season into a higher leverage role with considerably less talent around him? Guess we'll start to get the answer to that question in September.
Then, there's the offensive line trio of Campbell, Moses and Bradbury-who are projecting to be joining returning starting guards Mike Owenu and Cole Strange. Campbell is a particularly interesting case as he's being widely hailed as a franchise left tackle. This assessment has puzzled me beyond belief. The arm length problem with can't be written off as just a silly predraft process story. Playing left tackle in the NFL requires being able to get a firm anchor on the guys that are coming around the edge and I remain unconvinced after watching his tape this past spring that Campbell can do that with any degree of consistency. He may've held up alright in terms of sacks allowed at LSU, but there were a lot of concerning plays (particularly against South Carolina EDGE Kyle Kennard-who was just drafted by the Chargers in the 4th round) where guys got around him with ease and he'll be tasked with going against much bigger/explosive players damn near every week in the pros. He won't be getting eased into the job at all either as the Pats have to take on Maxx Crosby and the Raiders in Week 1 and if he falters in this role all season long, I don't know much more punishment Drake Maye can take after playing behind the Vederian Lowe/Demontrey Jacobs dream team last season.
While they are vets with plenty of starting experience, Moses and Bradbury are similarly shaky bets when it comes to their prospects of helping to solidify of one of the most woeful offensive lines in the league. There was a time where Moses was one of the most reliable RT's in football, but at 34, those days may be behind him for good. He was below average at best with the Jets last year and has the added burden of his once impressive durability eroding after missing 3 games a piece of the last 2 seasons.
Unlike Moses, Bradbury has never been good in the pros. The NC State product has been the epitome of average through 6 NFL seasons and the Vikings eventually decided that enough was enough after another unremarkable campaign in 2024 and cut him in March. While his cheap contract (2 years/$12 mil) and the selection of Wilson in the 3rd round indicate that this is a short-term veteran fix to atone for the loss of their longtime interior line anchor David Andrews-who retired in late May after being cut in March after 10 seasons in New England, it's awfully optimistic to expect him to do an admirable job of holding down the fort in the interim.
The most highly publicized and already controversial move of the bunch was the addition of Diggs. From the start, this move reeked of trouble as it was basically a forced marriage as the Patriots had a desperate need at WR and nobody else in the league was willing to give him a multi-year deal since he's a 31-year-old coming off an ACL tear. Even if you toss aside the questionable circumstances that dictated Diggs going to the Pats, it just feels like a bad idea to add a guy with his track record of having a shitty attitude to a rebuilding team. If he couldn't stay happy with Bills and Vikings teams that were winning (he was apparently fine with the Texans last year, but he was sidelined for the year before Halloween), what the hell he is going to do on a Patriots team that probably isn't going to contend for a fucking thing? There's also the very real and painful possibility that the ACL tear ended his days as a top-tier WR. He was already trending downwards after a quiet 2023 season and nothing he did last year with the Texans before the injury indicated that he had returned to his All-Pro form. Bouncing back from an ACL tear during a season in which he turns 32 is a tall hurdle that I'm not confident that he'll be able to overcome.
For people that don't live in the Boston area, going in on so many of their roster moves may sound like an insane overreaction. But believe me when I say, a lot of Patriots media and fans are convinced that this team is going to be the 2025 answer to the Commanders and shock the world with a deep playoff run. If this ends up occurring, I'll apologize to everybody for not believing in them and dedicating an absurd amount of time here to shitting all over the majority of the moves they made this offseason. If it goes the other way, however, I'll just attribute the shit that has entered my eyes and ears in recent months as necessary overenthusiasm from people trying to compensate for the soul-sucking pain of enduring the past few seasons of Pats football.
Key to Reaching Ceiling: Drake Maye Making a Leap in Year #2
Alongside Vrabel's arrival, the primary catalyst for the Patriots being a popular dark horse playoff team pick is Maye. What Maye did last season behind an abysmal offensive line with zero skill position talent around him was astounding. He regularly manufactured plays out of thin air, wasn't fazed by the relentless pressure he was under when he dropped back to pass and never once threw his teammates or coaching staff under the bus for their poor performances. In a season that was full of despair, he provided a glimmer of hope for the future.
Obviously, Maye has the disadvantage of having to learn a completely new system as OC Alex Van Pelt was (understandably) not retained after Mayo's firing despite the good rapport they developed once he took over as the Pats starting QB in Week 6. The man that Maye will be working with in 2025 is the same one that Tom Brady and Mac Jones worked with while they were QB1 in Foxboro as Josh McDaniels has returned for his 3rd stint as Patriots OC. This hiring has proven to be quite polarizing as McDaniels somehow managed to further tank his reputation with his 2nd failed head coaching stint with the Raiders but has an established track record of OC success with this very team that can't be denied.
While I have strongly dismissed and mocked the hiring of McDaniels, he's at least learned enough from his failures to no longer be married to the system he ran with Brady for all these years. He'll take advantage of Maye's strengths as a dynamic QB who is capable of making throws on the run, working the quick game or deep vertical routes with equal proficiency or running RPO's/designed runs and design a scheme that showcases all of them. Whether he'll allow Maye to call audibles or establish a better play calling rhythm than he did in Vegas with Derek Carr is a big mystery, but the fears that he'll force Maye to rigidly adhere to his old system are misguided and frankly kind of ridiculous.
As for what Maye can do to improve, the biggest thing by far is decision-making. The same personnel problems that plagued his final season at North Carolina followed him to the pros, which lead to a lot of forced throws and backbreaking INT's (many of the 10 picks he had in his 13 game appearances last season were really ugly). You don't need to be a coach to deduce why he's crossing his fingers and chucking the ball downfield so much. Playing the desperate, hurried brand of football, he's been forced to play for the past 2 years is going to lead to the development of some bad habits. Assuming the line and WR's improve this season, he'll have the chance to start shaking them and if that happens, the young fella could be cooking with gas in no time at all.
The other big thing is accuracy. While his completion percentage (66.6%) from last year is nothing to sneeze at considering the shitty situation he was in, he had a fair number of easy whiffs-particularly at the intermediate level-that could be cleaned up with a better understanding of timing.
Maye flashed more than enough as a rookie to prove that he has a real chance of becoming a franchise QB in this league. If those flashes start to string together into more consistent productivity, this Patriots team will be starting their journey back to contention sooner than anybody expected.
Bottom Line:
While they're bound to be a better coached team under Vrabel and improve upon their back-to-back 4-13 seasons, I still don't think this team is talented enough to meaningfully accelerate their rebuilding efforts in 2025.
New York Jets
2024 Record: 5-12 (3rd in AFC East)
Head Coach: Aaron Glenn (1st season)
Notable Additions: QB Justin Fields, CB Brandon Stephens, S Andre Cisco
Notable Departures: QB Aaron Rodgers, CB D.J. Reed, WR Davante Adams
Biggest Reason for Excitement: Aaron Rodgers is No Longer on the Roster
We finally got to see more than a drive's worth of Aaron Rodgers in a Jets uniform in 2024 and in a development that shocked almost no one, it wasn't pretty. Turns out that Achillies injury really did a number on the 41-year-old Rodgers and took away his ability to extend plays with his mobility and manufacture huge throws out of his ass. Without his signature gift as a QB, he devolved into a middling statue who bared more of a resemblance to late-era Ben Roethlisberger than the guy who took home his 4th career MVP 3 seasons prior. Unsatisfied with their 5-12 finish and realizing that the man they deemed to be their savior was now pretty much completely washed, Woody Johnson elected to part ways with Rodgers in mid- February. This is the best thing to happen to the Jets since their last AFC Championship appearance in 2010 and everybody from Staten Island to Hoboken should be rejoicing that this insufferable stiff is no longer on their team.
Biggest Reason for Concern: Aaron Glenn's Coaching Prowess
Saturday, January 18, 2025: After the Lions clawed their way back into their Divisional Round matchup versus the Commanders with a quick stop and long TD drive to start the second half and get the Lions back to within 3 points of the lead (31-28), Lions DC Aaron Glenn managed to swing the momentum back in the favor of the Commanders by not realizing that he had too many on the field during a pivotal 4 and 2th on Detroit's 5-yard line. After Dan Quinn accepted the 3-yard penalty and gave have his team a new set of downs, it took only 2 more plays for the Commanders to score a TD and get their lead back up to 10 (38-28). The Lions never sniffed taking the lead again and ended up losing by a score of 45-31.
Jets fans around the world couldn't help but gasp in horror of what transpired during this game. Everybody in and outside of their fanbase knew that Glenn was going to be the next Jets HC as he spent most of his playing career there and their brass was hellbent on hiring him, and he spent 4 quarters puking all over his shoes in what will go down as one of the most shocking playoff upsets of all time.
The reality is that this horrid showing by Glenn just confirmed something that he's proven time and time again: He's not a very good coach. If you were to take out the fugazi #7 finish they posted last season, Glenn had never overseen a defense that ranked higher than 23rd in scoring defense. To break it down more directly, Glenn's defenses finished in the bottom 10 for 3 straight seasons with the Lions before last year's questionable #7 finish. Not ideal!
Believe or not, the hype around Glenn as an HC candidate actually dates all the way back to his time as the Saints DB coach-a role in which he served in from 2016-2020. I can explicitly remember a Fox broadcast in 2018 or 2019 where the announce team were gushing about him for minutes and stating that Sean Payton believed he was destined to be a great HC one day. Naturally, the legend of Glenn only built up further when went to the Lions and had the honor of being one of the top assistants on a team that went from a bottom feeder to a playoff team in 2 seasons time.
My big theory (outside of the whole Lions turning into the buzziest team in the league thing) as to why became such a hot head coaching candidate despite his pretty horrendous track record as a DC is his personality. He's a charismatic guy who loves football and seems to be able to get players fired up with his passion for the game. In that case, he may actually be better suited for head coaching if his coordinators are up for handling the X and O's (his OC is Tanner Engstrand- a fellow Lions staff transplant who served as Ben Johnson's top understudy over the last few seasons and his DC is veteran coordinator Steve Wilks-who is coming back to the pros after spending the 2024 season in the college ranks following him having the distinct honor of serving as Kyle Shanahan's fall guy for the 49ers Super Bowl Collapse in 2023), but it's still very difficult to buy into narrative that Glenn is some brilliant mind when his track record as an assistant is largely terrible.
Key to Reaching Ceiling: The Defense Regaining Their Dominant Form from 2022
When Aaron Rodgers got traded to the Jets in 2023, the Jets were coming off a season in which they had one of the best defenses in football. Robert Saleh had this team playing the way he wanted after a brutal inaugural season in which they finished dead last in scoring defense and the physicality and stoutness he instilled in them allowed to post the 4th ranked scoring defense and 2nd ranked passing defense in the league. As seems to always be the case with the J-E-T-S JETS JETS JETS, things don't go quite planned once Rodgers arrived. In 2023, the defense held quite well for a bit until fatigue finally set in around Thanksgiving after playing roughly 860 snaps per game due to the Zach Wilson-led offense's inability to remain on the field. In 2024, they pretty much completely fell apart once Saleh was fired in early October, ranking in the bottom half of the league in most categories of note.
The good news for the Jets is that many of the key players responsible for that excellent 2022 campaign are still around (Quinnen Williams, Sauce Gardner, Quincy Williams, Tony Adams, Michael Carter II, Jamien Sherwood, Jermaine Johnson), the new Jets that weren't around for that season (Brandon Stephens, Andre Cisco, Derrick Nnadi) have put together great seasons in the past and this new coaching staff provides them with the ideal opportunity to get back on track. Nearly all of these guys are coming off down years and having to learn a new system adds to the challenge that Wilks and Glenn have ahead of them as camp opens up, but it's hardly an insurmountable obstacle given how well the majority of these guys played in 2023.
The importance of getting this defense back in line cannot be understated. As much as people around the league seem to believe that Engstrand is primed to be next the offensive guru, it's going to take several miracles to turn a Justin Fields-led offense with an unproven RB committee (Breece Hall, Braelon Allen, Isaiah Davis), young tackle pairing (2nd year LT Olu Fashanu, rookie RT Armand Membou) and questionable WR depth chart (Josh Reynolds, Allen Lazard, Malachi Corley, Tyler Johnson, rookie Arian Smith) beyond Garrett Wilson into a unit that scores a lot of points. Fields needs an ideal setup to thrive as a QB and the one that Jets have in place right now doesn't appear to be anywhere close to that. Their best chance of winning this year will be grinding out ugly wins via ball control and winning the turnover battle and none of that is possible unless you have a high-end defense that can make that formula work. If the Jets can make that happen, snapping their league-high 15-year playoff drought could very well be in the cards.
Bottom Line:
Unless Glenn returning to East Rutherford magically eliminates the deep institutional stink of this franchise, the Jets aren't going to do a damn thing of note this season.
Predicted Standings:
1.Buffalo Bills (12-5)
2.New England Patriots (7-10)
3.Miami Dolphins (7-10)
4.New York Jets (5-12)