Friday, August 30, 2019

2019 NFL Power Rankings: Week 1

With the slog of the preseason finally in the rearview, us football fans are just mere days away from the pain and glory of regular season action. In the spirit of the season, it's time to take one last look at where I believe the NFL hierarchy stands to start 2019. Hope you enjoy and be sure to stay tuned every Tuesday from September 10 through December 24 for a new batch of power rankings.

1.New England Patriots Week 1 opponent: Pittsburgh Steelers
2.Los Angeles Rams Week 1 opponent: Carolina Panthers
3.Kansas City Chiefs Week 1 opponent: Jacksonville Jaguars
4.New Orleans Saints Week 1 opponent: Houston Texans
5.Philadelphia Eagles Week 1 opponent: Washington Redskins
6.Chicago Bears Week 1 opponent: Green Bay Packers
7.Los Angeles Chargers Week 1 opponent: Indianapolis Colts
8.Houston Texans Week 1 opponent: New Orleans Saints
9.Dallas Cowboys Week 1 opponent: New York Giants
10.Pittsburgh Steelers Week 1 opponent: New England Patriots
11.Atlanta Falcons Week 1 opponent: Minnesota Vikings
12.Minnesota Vikings Week 1 opponent: Atlanta Falcons
13.Seattle Seahawks Week 1 opponent: Cincinnati Bengals
14.Green Bay Packers Week 1 opponent: Chicago Bears
15.Cleveland Browns Week 1 opponent: Tennessee Titans
16.Baltimore Ravens Week 1 opponent: Miami Dolphins
17.Tennessee Titans Week 1 opponent: Cleveland Browns
18.Carolina Panthers Week 1 opponent: Los Angeles Rams
19.Indianapolis Colts Week 1 opponent: Los Angeles Chargers
20.Denver Broncos Week 1 opponent: Oakland Raiders
21.New York Jets Week 1 opponent: Buffalo Bills
22.Jacksonville Jaguars Week 1 opponent: Kansas City Chiefs
23.Buffalo Bills Week 1 opponent: New York Jets
24.Tampa Bay Buccaneers Week 1 opponent: San Francisco 49ers
25.Detroit Lions Week 1 opponent: Arizona Cardinals
26.Oakland Raiders Week 1 opponent: Denver Broncos
27.New York Giants Week 1 opponent: Dallas Cowboys
28.San Francisco 49ers Week 1 opponent: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
29.Cincinnati Bengals Week 1 opponent: Seattle Seahawks
30.Miami Dolphins Week 1 opponent: Baltimore Ravens
31.Arizona Cardinals Week 1 opponent: Detroit Lions
32.Washington Redskins Week 1 opponent: Philadelphia Eagles

Thursday, August 29, 2019

10 Most Anticipated Movies of Fall 2019

As summer reaches its unofficial conclusion this weekend, the quality of the cinematic year starts to really come into focus. Much to my delight, the past four months piggybacked off the success of the first four with a strong, diverse group of films that featured an unexpected R-rated comedy resurgence (Long Shot, Booksmart, Good Boys), some brilliant blockbuster sequels/spin-offs (John Wick 3, Hobbs & Shaw, Toy Story 4) and very little in the way of useless filler (The Kitchen and Pokémon Detective Pikachu are the only titles I'd place in that camp).

So what does 2019 have in store for its final, typically quality-affirming act? A whole hell of a lot. There's high-profile franchise cappers (It Chapter Two, Star Wars: Rise of Skywalker, Rambo: Last Blood), biopics about some of America's most beloved figures (Harriet, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, Judy) and of course, award contenders galore (Ford v. Ferrari, Marriage Story, Little Women). Not to mention, there's also some exciting original fare from acclaimed directors (Knives Out, Jojo Rabbit, Uncut Gems), reboots of long-dormant properties (Charlie's Angels, Black Christmas, Jay and Silent Bob Reboot) and the holiday season musical event that's already given a 1/3rd of the population nightmares (Cats). Here are the 10 movies from this crowded September-December slate that I'm most excited to see. 

10.Star Wars: Rise of Skywalker (12/20):
I'm not entirely sure if this deserves a spot here. The middling, soulless Disney focus group brainchild otherwise known as The Last Jedi basically crushed all of the hope I had that Star Wars was going to be able to find its footing after racking up so many failed continuations over the past 20 years and just about all of the characters in this trilogy besides Rey and Kylo Ren are boring as hell. However, J.J. Abrams' return to the director's chair along with the possibility that the fascinating Rey/Kylo Ren dynamic that helped save The Last Jedi from being completely worthless will be further explored here is just enough for me to hold out a sliver of hope that this iteration of the classic space opera franchise will end on a high note.

9.Joker (10/4):
As skeptical as I am about Todd Philips' (The Hangover trilogy, Old School) ability to direct an excellent dramatic movie, Warner Brothers' decision to put Joker through the critical gauntlet of the fall festival circuit is an undeniably encouraging sign for its quality. A psychological drama is a fascinating way to approach an origin story for this iconic character and Joaquin Phoenix is exactly the type of fearlessly committed actor that can maximize the eeriness of a normal guy's slow descent into madness.      

8.Uncut Gems (12/13):
Adam Sandler getting a chance to showcase his underrated dramatic acting ability in a wild, kinetic crime movie from the minds behind Good Time could make this the dark horse Oscar contender no one saw coming.

7.Knives Out (11/27):
Before he gets a chance to redeem himself in the Star Wars universe following the aforementioned aggravating mediocrity of The Last Jedi with the launch of a new trilogy, Rian Johnson has cooked up an old-school whodunit with an absolutely stacked ensemble cast that includes Daniel Craig, Chris Evans, Jamie Lee Curtis, Ana de Armas, Toni Collette, Michael Shannon and Lakeith Stanfield. If Knives Out ends up being anywhere near as exciting as Johnson's last original project (2012 sci-fi action flick Looper), it should go down as one of the most enjoyable watches of the year.

6.Ford v. Ferrari (11/15):
I'm not a Grand Prix fan in the slightest, but the combination of an excellent trailer, a terrific lead actor combo (Matt Damon, Christian Bale) and significant early Oscar buzz has me very intrigued to see James Mangold's (Logan, Walk the Line) latest fact-based drama.

5.Jojo Rabbit (10/18):
Hot of the heels of his mainstream breakout with Thor: Ragnarok, Jojo Rabbit sees Taika Waititi returning to his oddball indie roots. A satire surrounding a young boy (newcomer Roman Griffin Davis) living in WWII-era Germany-whose imaginary friend is an ethnically inaccurate version of Hitler (Waititi)- that has his narrow worldview challenged when he discovers that his mother (Scarlett Johannsson) is hiding a young Jewish girl (Thomasin McKenzie) in their home is the type of nutty fare that only a bold artist would make. It might ultimately prove to be too weird to work, but I'm super excited to see if Waititi can pull it off.      

4.Jumanji: The Next Level (12/13):
Jumanjii: Welcome to the Jungle was a funny, clever and wildly entertaining adventure that ranks among the most pleasant surprises in recent memory. Adding the likes of Danny DeVito, Danny Glover and Awkafina to the cast as well as throwing in the inspired narrative wrinkle of having different people get sucked into the Jumanji game (most notably, Dwayne Johnson is playing DeVito and Kevin Hart is playing Glover) is more than enough to convince me that the sequel can be similarly great.

3.Rambo: Last Blood (9/20):
Even though he can no longer run or hold a large weapon without looking like he's in tremendous pain, Sylvester Stallone is remarkably still an elite action star and I'm confident in his ability to give John Rambo a properly gritty sendoff.

2.Zombieland: Double Tap (10/18):
Getting all of the key players (Woody Harrelson, Emma Stone, Jesse Eisenberg, Abigail Breslin, director Ruben Fleischer, writers Rhett Reese and Paul Wernick) to return is enough to excuse the agonizing 10-year wait for a Zombieland sequel. The trailer makes it look like a perfect continuation of the original and all of the new additions to the cast (Zoey Deutch, Rosario Dawson, Luke Wilson, Thomas Middleditch, Avan Jogia) seem like they're going to gel really well with the smartass makeshift family at the center of this zombie-hunting comedy.     

1.The Irishman (11/27):
Martin Scorsese returning to the genre that has played such a pivotal role in solidifying his status as an iconic director with what is essentially the gangster movie Avengers (Robert De Niro, Al Pacino, Joe Pesci, Harvey Keitel) by his side is a dream scenario for fanboys like myself. If this crime epic lives up to the caliber of the talent involved, its reported 3 and a half hour runtime might not be long enough.

Also interested in:
It Chapter Two (9/6)
Night Hunter (9/6)
Hustlers (9/13)
The Sound of Silence (9/13)
The Goldfinch (9/13)
Ad Astra (9/20)
Between Two Ferns: The Movie (9/20)
Corporate Animals (9/20)
First Love (9/27)
The Day Shall Come (9/27)
Lucy in the Sky (10/4)
Gemini Man (10/11)
Jexi (10/11)
Parasite (10/11)
Jay and Silent Reboot (10/15)
Maleficent: Mistress of Evil (10/18)
The Laundromat (10/18)
The Lighthouse (10/18)
Dolemite is My Name (10/25)
Harriet (11/1)
Motherless Brooklyn (11/1)
Paradise Hills (11/1)
Terminator: Dark Fate (11/1)
Doctor Sleep (11/8)
Honey Boy (11/8)
Charlie's Angels (11/15)
Earthquake Bird (11/15)
The Report (11/15)
21 Bridges (11/22)
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (11/22)
Dark Waters (11/22)
Queen & Slim (11/27)
Marriage Story (12/6)
Black Christmas (12/13)
Bombshell (12/20)
Cats (12/20)
1917 (12/25)
Just Mercy (12/25)
Little Women (12/25)
Clemency (12/27)

Wednesday, August 28, 2019

The Best and Worst of David Oyelowo

“The Best and Worst of” series chronicles the career highlights and lowlights of an actor starring in one of the week's new theatrical releases. This week, I take a look at the filmography of “Don't Let Go” star David Oyelowo 

Films starring David Oyelowo that I've seen:
A Sound of Thunder
The Last King of Scotland
Rise of the Planet of the Apes
The Help
Red Tails
The Paperboy
Jack Reacher
The Butler
Interstellar
Selma
A Most Violent Year
The Cloverfield Paradox
Gringo

Best Performance: Selma (2014)
This isn't just the best performance of Oyelowo's career to-date, it's one of the best pieces of acting I've ever had the pleasure of witnessing on screen. Oyelowo taps into nuances of Martin Luther King (the doubt he expressed about the effectiveness of his message, the quiet shame he held over his extramarital affairs) that never carried over to his public persona while also powerfully capturing (his clear, commanding speech delivery style, the resilience and diligence he displayed when tackling issues) the attributes that made him the figurehead of the civil rights movement. Truly transcendent work from an actor who doesn't get nearly the level of respect he deserves in this industry.

Worst Performance: Jack Reacher (2012)
In the relatively entertaining albeit very flawed Gringo, Oyelowo proved that he had a gift for delivering manic comedy that hadn't been tapped into before. His success in Gringo makes his failure in Jack Reacher even more baffling and aggravating. If he (and the rest of his castmates for that matter) had bought into the absurdity of the plot instead of choosing to play it straight, Jack Reacher maybe could've been something other than a routinely cringeworthy action movie that took itself way too seriously.

Best Film: Selma (2014)
Portrayals of historical figures don't get much better than Selma. Through depicting King's famous march from Selma, Alabama to the state capital of Montgomery in protest of the lack of voting rights for black Americans, Ava DuVernay paints a vivid picture of what drove him to be a civil rights leader and how he was able to unify people behind his message without shying away from the flaws of the man that left behind such an iconic legacy.

Worst Film: A Sound of Thunder (2005)
A Sound of Thunder is the special kind of awful movie where the mere mention of the title conjures up a feeling of overwhelming disgust inside me. While the producers going bankrupt during the post-production process explains the porous special effects, there's no suitable excuse for the terrible acting and unintentionally hilarious plot that are primarily responsible for the vile stench emanating  from every frame of this largely unseen sci-fi thriller.

Thank you for reading this week's edition of “The Best and Worst of”. The next victim of my praise and ire will be “It: Chapter 2” star Bill Hader. 

Tuesday, August 27, 2019

2019 NFL Preview: AFC West

Denver Broncos
2018 Record: 6-10 (3rd in AFC West)
Head Coach: Vic Fangio (1st season)
Notable Additions: QB Joe Flacco, CB Bryce Callahan, CB Kareem Jackson 
Notable Departures: C Matt Paradis, CB Bradley Roby, QB Case Keenum  
-Overseeing a Bears defense that was the most feared in the league in 2018 proved to be the feat that finally earned Vic Fangio his 1st head coaching gig after 19 years as an assistant in the pros. It's a well-deserved opportunity for a grizzled vet that has been regarded as one of, if not the best defensive coordinator in the league over the past 7-8 years.

In terms of fit, the Broncos gig couldn't possibly be more ideal. GM John Elway has bucked every single trend in the league by constructing a primitive roster that emphasizes hard-nosed defense over offensive fireworks. Now that he's brought in a like-minded relic to run the operation, they might actually yield some results on the field. The mix of established cornerstone pieces (Von Miller, Chris Harris Jr., Derek Wolfe) and promising young talent (Bradley Chubb, Justin Simmons, Bryce Callahan-who followed Fangio from the Bears) on defense is a great base for Fangio to work with and poaching brilliant offensive line coach Mike Munchak from the Steelers staff should help them become the run-heavy, protect a lead offense they've aspired to be during the string of middling seasons they put together after their Super Bowl win in 2015. Throw in a quarterback in Joe Flacco who enjoyed a fair amount of success following a similar blueprint with the Ravens over the past decade and you have yourself a nice little throwback team that might surprise some people in a wide open AFC wild card race.   

-Speaking of Elway, his relationship with the quarterback position never fails to be hilarious. Since he lucked (no pun intended) into getting Peyton Manning during his last few prime years, Elway has essentially tried to come up with a different option every year. In 2016, 1st round pick Paxton Lynch got beat out for the starting job by incumbent 3rd stringer Trevor Siemian. In 2017, Siemian ended up getting benched for Brock Osweiler-who re-joined the team after a pair of failed stints with the Texans and Browns. Last year, he signed Case Keenum in free agency following a fluky season with the Vikings. Shockingly, none of these plans worked out and they haven't been back to the playoffs since they hoisted the Lombardi.

This season, Elway got really freaky with the shit. That's right kids, he brought in a veteran AND conquered his fear of drafting another quarterback post-Lynch. As I mentioned in the previous paragraph, Flacco is a much more sensible veteran stopgap option than any of the other jabronis he's trotted out since Manning retired. He has a legit NFL starter's pedigree with several playoff appearances and a Super Bowl ring on his resume, and he's polished enough as a passer for them to open up the offense past the quick shovel pass crap that they ran extensively with Siemian/Lynch/Osweiler/Keenum when called upon. Bonus points for going the extra mile to help ease his transition to the Mile High City by giving him a group of largely unproven receivers (Courtland Sutton, DaeSean Hamilton, Tim Patrick, rookie Noah Fant) that mirrors what he had to work with during the bulk of his time with the Ravens.    

While Flacco is likely to start all 16 games if he's healthy and/or the team doesn't fall out of the playoff picture alarmingly early, the Broncos do have a young quarterback waiting in the wings if the 34-year old doesn't prove to be a sufficient top dog. Elway traded up 10 picks to select Mizzou product Drew Lock at the top of the 2nd round of this year's draft.

Looking at Lock's intangibles and resume, it's hard not to be reminded of Lynch. He's got prototypical size, a rocket arm and more red flags (accuracy, decisionmaking, poor performances against top competition in college) than a god damn yacht club. Honestly, I think Lock is the perfect compromise option for an executive whose job could be in jeopardy if this season doesn't go down as a success. He was drafted high enough to be touted as a possible solution to their lingering quarterback problem, but low enough where he's not viewed as a coveted franchise guy and can be easily replaced if things go south (guys like Geno Smith, Christian Hackenberg and DeShon Kizer were all selected in a similar range over the past 5 years). Whenever Elway steps away from the front office, I hope his contributions in the stalling arts get their proper due.

-A shift in the running back hierarchy could very emerge under this new regime. Undrafted rookie Phillip Lindsay's speed, shiftiness and pass-catching ability allowed to him to overtake 3rd round pick Royce Freeman as the starting back pretty quickly. A combination of Lindsay bouncing back from a wrist injury that prematurely ended his 2018 season and his slimmer frame (5'8, 190lbs) could relegate him to the 2nd option in a rushing attack that figures to be prominently feeatured. 

Freeman's simplistic 1-cut rushing style makes him the perfect lead back in a ball control offense. His size (5'11, 238 lbs) is great for short yardage situations and his nose for the endzone is legit-scoring 5 TD's on only 130 carries as a rookie. Sure he's not going to make a ton of people of miss or do much of anything that isn't between the tackles, but if the blocking is strong enough and his power can get a bit better, he could evolve into a Jordan Howard/Derrick Henry-type player that you can build a ground-and-pound attack around. 

Bottom Line:
The Broncos are a  bland, old-school football team that could manage to sneak their way into the playoffs if all of the hyped young teams (Browns, Jets, Colts) die out. What a conference.
               
Kansas City Chiefs
2018 Record: 12-4 (1st in AFC West)
Head Coach: Andy Reid (7th season)
Notable Additions: DE Frank Clark, S Tyrann Mathieu, RB Carlos Hyde 
Notable Departures: OLB Dee Ford, DE/OLB Justin Houston, CB Steven Nelson
-Even the biggest optimists and Andy Reid believers on the planet had to be surprised by what Patrick Mahomes was able to accomplish last season. A 23-year old product of an incredibly basic college offense with only 1 prior career start in a meaningless Week 17 game under his belt leading the league's top scoring offense, registering 50 TD's/5,000+ YDS and winning MVP in his 1st season as a starting quarterback is a simply inhuman accomplishment. So what he will be able to do as an encore?

Winning MVP doesn't disqualify Mahomes from facing the line of questioning that every young QB receives following their initial breakout. Opposing teams having a year's worth of tape to study along with the pressure of expectations is a powerful combination that can sink players who don't how to handle being forced to make adjustments to their game or possess the mental toughness to deal with the adversity this rapidly-changing league throws at you. Based on the countless examples of grit he displayed last season, I feel pretty god damn confident that Mahomes won't be joining the list of QB's that flamed out after 1 promising season. 

There's not another young QB in recent memory that can say that they mounted a comeback that sent the game into OT against the juggernaut Patriots in the AFC Championship Game after a wretched 1st half in which they took 3 sacks, only completed 4 passes and led the offense to 0 points. The kid just doesn't seem to get rattled by any matchup or gametime situation, which is an increasingly rare quality to have at this position. His unreal arm strength and gift for making logic-defying passes look easy also doesn't hurt. He might not lead a 35+ points per game offense or throw for 5,000+ yards for a 2nd straight season, but I'd be surprised if Mahomes didn't further establish himself as the most electric, poised and just plain best QB to enter the league since Russell Wilson with his play this season.

-Any finger pointing exercise examining why the Chiefs lost to the Patriots will most likely end with blaming the defense. Clearly the braintrust agreed because Bob Sutton was fired as defensive coordinator 2 days after their AFC Championship Game loss. While garbage time production stemming from their offense's affinity for blowing out opponents certainly inflated the stats a bit (31st in total yards allowed and 24th in scoring defense) last season, the most inexplicably revered defensive mind in the sport failed to make adjustments and no matter how hard he tried, couldn't cover up their slew of issues on the back end by repeatedly blitzing.

Reid's choice for a replacement for Sutton is.... interesting. Steve Spagnoulo, who last served as the Giants defensive coordinator from 2015-17, shares Sutton's love of blitzing at every possible juncture. Honestly probably the only differences are that Spagnoulo runs a 4-3 instead of a 3-4 and has a pretty good track record of developing secondaries-which should help balance out some of the relentless aggression displayed by the front 7.

Given the reported lack of faith the players had developed in Sutton's scheme over the course of last season, it's kind of shocking that Reid brought in a guy who runs a very similar defense as a replacement. I get that head coaches like to tap guys they have familiarity with as top assistants (Spagnoulo worked under Reid for 8 seasons while he was with the Eagles), but hiring somebody with a radically different philosophy seems like it would've been a more logical choice for a group that desperately needs to change.     

Even though I do believe Spagnoulo is a better coordinator than Sutton, their personnel makes me wonder whether or not a notable improvement is possible this season. Former Seahawk Frank Clark is a couple notches below the departed Dee Ford as a pass rusher, entrusting Tyrann Mathieau to slide into the field general role once occupied by the great Eric Berry is a ballsy move considering his merely so-so play over the past few years, their linebacker situation (Reggie Ragland, Anthony Hitchens, Damien Wilson) is still a disaster with no positive outcome in sight and Steven Nelson's exit in free agency could prove to be a sneaky huge loss for an already mediocre secondary. Their championship dreams are likely riding on whether or not Spagnoulo can whip up a passable dish out of questionable ingredients after spending a year away from the kitchen. Good luck chef.   
  
-The offensive dropoff so many expected to come when Kareem Hunt got released last November just never happened. Damien Williams' transition to the starting role was about as seamless as possible as the ex-Dolphins backup picked up 572 scrimmage YDS (362 rushing, 210 receiving) and 8 TD's in his 5 starts including 2 in the playoffs. The Williams hype train that was going full bore in January has taken a couple of hits ahead of the 2019 season.

Leading that slowdown was a hamstring injury Williams suffered around the start of camp. In his absence, rookie Darwin Thompson impressed the hell out of the coaching staff with his explosiveness   and seemingly leapfrogged ailing veteran Carlos Hyde, who was initially brought in to be Williams' backup, on the depth chart.  Reid has since stated that he might employ a committee to both protect Williams-who has never been a starter over the course of an entire season and give Thompson more opportunities. Williams made a convincing statement that he's both healthy and ready to be this team's workhorse back in last week's preseason contest by taking a screen pass 62 YDS to the house on a highlight reel worthy play. We'll see before too long if that was enough to table Reid's desire to utilize a committee.
      
-No one on the Chiefs roster benefited more from the arrival of Mahomes than Tyreek Hill. Pairing Hill's unreal speed with Mahomes' arm strength created a downfield matchup nightmare that honestly couldn't be stopped. Hill's rare talent is also the reason the league chose to not suspend him for an alleged domestic incident involving his 3-year old son.

 Even though the charges were formally dropped, the audio evidence that at the very least heavily implies that Hill broke his child's arm still would've been more than enough for the league to bury a lesser talent. It's a different story when it's a reigning All-Pro that happens to be one of the most dynamic offensive playmakers in the league. 

Ratings went up last year for the 1st time since 2015 and the excitement that the Chiefs offense provided definitely played a key part in that resurgence. Suspending the top receiver on a very popular team a year after they've improved viewership for the 1st time in 3 years  likely would've caused a hit in the wallet that the shot callers didn't want to take. In a league that almost always screws up the discipline for violence-related incidents, this is a contender for the most disgusting and baffling piece of insufficient punishment to-date.  

Bottom Line:
     The Chiefs bare a striking resemblance to most of the Saints teams (powerhouse offense/trash defense)of the Drew Brees era, which means a strong regular season followed by a pre Super Bowl exit seems like its going to be in the cards once again this year.  

Los Angeles Chargers
2018 Record: 12-4 (2nd in AFC West)
Head Coach: Anthony Lynn (3rd season)
Notable Additions: OLB Thomas Davis, QB Tyrod Taylor, P Ty Long
Notable Departures: WR Tyrell Williams, TE Antonio Gates, CB Jason Verrett
-Melvin Gordon has easily been the most vocal of the large group of players that are currently holding out for a new contract. He publicly stated during a mid-July press conference at SportsCon in Dallas that while he hoped to remain a Charger, he wanted a new contract and implied that he wouldn't play again until they or another team gave it to him. That stance has further intensified in recent weeks and new reports from league insiders believe he's willing to miss regular season games if a deal doesn't get done. 

Unfortunately for Gordon, he's trying to play hardball with the most stubborn organization in the NFL. Just a few years ago, owner Dean Spanos and GM Tom Telesco had a bitch of time trying to sign Joey Bosa because of their reluctance to give him $20+ mil in guaranteed money on a ROOKIE DEAL. When you're dealing with organization that spent 5 months haggling over the value of a team-friendly contract for the #3 overall pick in the draft, you might as well just chock up the L and collect a year's worth of game checks before you go elsewhere to get your money. There's better odds of Chargers fans outdrawing the fans of their opponent at a home game than there is of Spanos and Telesco giving Gordon the 13+mil a year he's asking for.

Further destroying Gordon's odds of getting a new deal is the other backfield options the Chargers currently have. Unlike the Cowboys who have built their offense around Ezekiel Elliott, the Chargers have proven they can get by without Gordon. While neither are terrific between-the-tackles runners, Austin Ekeler and Justin Jackson managed to fair just fine leading a committee during Gordon's absence with a sprained knee last season-registering 421 scrimmage YDS, 3 TD's and helping lead the team to a 4-0 record while the 2x Pro Bowler was sidelined. Their natural pass-catching skills paired with the speed/cutting ability they have to get around the edge makes them nice pieces that OC Ken Wisenhunt should be able to scheme around without incident.

It also helps that they have a top-tier quarterback in Phillip Rivers and an explosive receiver group (Keenan Allen, Hunter Henry, Mike Williams, Travis Benjamin) that should open the door for their young running backs to enjoy a season-long ascent. A full season holdout is certainly possible for Gordon and considering his tendency to get banged up (he's only appeared in 16 games 1 time during his 4 years in the league so far), that may not be the worst thing in the world.

-The Chargers don't have the same luxury of having an adequate replacement lined up for safety Derwin James-who suffered a stress fracture in his foot during training camp and is slated to be out until at least mid-November-that they do with Gordon. Behind a lethal combo of speed, instincts and range, James took the NFL by storm as a rookie, racking up 105 tackles, 3.5 sacks, 3 INT and 11 passes defensed-which helped him earn 1st team All-Pro honors. 

As terrific as the raw numbers were, his versatility is what really made James special. Gus Bradley could deploy him at either safety spot, slot corner or inside linebacker to keep opposing offenses off-balance throughout the game. Is their secondary going to be doomed in James' absence? Probably not. Desmond King and Casey Hayward are as strong of a cover corner duo as there in the league right now and converted special teamer Adrian Phillips made a surprisingly smooth transition to the starting free safety spot in the back half of 2018.  However, his Swiss Army Knife skill set was an incredibly valuable weapon for this group and even if rookie Nasir Adderley or Rayshawn Jenkins steps in and exceeds expectations filling his place in the starting lineup, they likely won't be able to replicate the impact his dynamism made on this defense as a whole. 

-Considering the checkered history of this franchise, it's hard to not consider the possibility that the Chargers are in for another snake-bitten season in 2019. In addition to Gordon's holdout and James' injury, left tackle/cornerstone of a below average offensive line Russell Okung is currently dealing with an undisclosed medical issue that may cause him to miss the start of the regular season. 

Obviously, there's a point of no return with injuries and they're not even close to being there yet. Even with their current absences, they still have a terrific offense, a solid front 7 led by a pair of dominant pass rushers (Bosa, Melvin Ingram) and an exciting secondary with some of the most underrated talents in the league. However, even if shit doesn't go completely sideways like it often does with this franchise, this season will pose some interesting on-and-off field challenges that could derail the season. 

Will Gordon's holdout serve as a distraction?  Can Rivers and the passing game continue to thrive if Okung ends up missing time? Will there be a hangover from last season's embarrassing playoff exit and if so, can he get them back on track mentally? Anthony Lynn handled the lone bit of serious adversity (the 0-4 start they endured in 2017 courtesy of missed field goals/extra points) he's faced during his tenure as HC thus far well, so there's every reason to be pretty confident that he's equipped to handle the rigors of an ugly season where everything that can go wrong does if one ends up materializing in 2019.

Bottom Line:
Despite their abundance of talent and encouraging early signs that Anthony Lynn could be a great NFL head coach, there's too much uncertainty surrounding this team right now to believe they'll be able to match, let alone improve upon their 12-4 record in 2018.
                                  
Oakland Raiders
2018 Record: 4-12 (4th in AFC West)
Head Coach: Jon Gruden (2nd season)
Notable Additions: WR Antonio Brown, S Lamarcus Joyner, T Trent Brown
Notable Departures: TE Jared Cook, G Kelechi Osemele, WR Jordy Nelson (retired)
-5 short months ago, there were questions about whether or not the Steelers got a big enough return (3rd and 5th round picks in this year's draft) in the trade that sent star receiver Antonio Brown to the Raiders. Now, there's an increasingly popular notion that Steelers may have won the deal simply by getting Brown off their roster.

 A honeymoon period was bound to occur after his wish to get out of Pittsburgh was granted, but Brown has made up for those blissful months of silence by bringing a whole lot of drama to the Bay Area over the past few weeks. The Oakland stop of the AB circus got off to a roaring start after it was revealed that the foot injury that kept him out of practice at the start of camp was a result of frostbite he suffered from not wearing the proper footwear in a cryogenic chamber. Within 24 hours of the frostbite diagnosis, things somehow managed to get even nuttier when it was revealed that Brown was threatening to retire if he couldn't wear his old helmet that didn't meet the league's new safety regulations.

This chapter of the AB saga may have reached its conclusion following his unsuccessful 2nd attempt to win a grievance against the league to try and continue to wear his precious old helmet, but you truly don't know what the hell could piss him off next and launch the next episode of the league's finest 1-man soap opera. I'm sure Kevin Colbert, Mike Tomlin and the rest of the Steelers organization are all very sad that this sideshow is now happening in someone else's building.

The off-field distractions are hardly the only concerns about Brown's transition to Oakland. Brown disenchantment with catching passes from Ben Roethlisberger was believed to be the primary reason behind his trade demand. Roethlisberger's game has its share of serious flaws: His struggles on the road are well-documented and his gunslinger mentality leads to some ugly INT's/dangerous passes that put his receivers' health at risk. However, the fact of the matter remains is that he's a top 5-10 quarterback in the league and will likely find himself in Canton someday. I have a sneaking suspicion he will realize just how good he had it during his 9 years in Pittsburgh once he plays with Derek Carr.

Carr just hasn't been the same player after he broke his fibula at the end of 2016 season. His confidence must've shattered with his leg because he's been a jittery mess under center for the past 2 seasons, posting a career-low 19 TD's last season and a career-high 13 INT's the season prior to that. Considering how quickly he lost patience with a constant risk-taker in Roethlisberger, playing with someone as gun shy as Carr might cause him to snap after a couple of series. Anything short of a raging dumpster fire when he actually takes the field should be considered a triumph at this point.

-Hiring Jon Gruden as a head coach/executive after 9 years away from the game seemed like an ill-advised move at time and based on the dreadful 1st year results, that feeling remain firmly in tact. So what would Mark Davis do as an encore? Bring in another TV guy to be Gruden's #2 of course!

I honestly loved Mike Mayock as an analyst. His commentary was insightful and the amount of preparation that he did for each NFL Draft was remarkable. However, trusting a veteran broadcaster to run your team is a wild move. The beauty of being on TV, behind a keyboard or really anywhere else besides an NFL front office is that there's no consequences when you're wrong about a player's ability/fit on a team. Just because you can provide a detailed scouting report doesn't mean you're a brilliant talent evaluator and based on the moves he made during his 1st rosterbuilding cycle as "general manager" (Gruden is still pulling the strings on all personnel moves), there's plenty of reason to question his ability to evaluate talent when there's real stakes.

Free agency kicked the Mayock regime off with a bang when they signed Trent Brown to a record-breaking deal (4 years/$66 mil/$36.5 mil guaranteed) for a tackle. Brown was a merely functional left tackle on a line that has no shortage of high-end talent and was coached by a legend in Dante Scarnecchia whose legacy is defined by getting the most out of every player he coaches. Now that he's under the watchful eye of Tom "I almost killed Russell Wilson" Cable on a line that only has 1 legit piece on it (center Rodney Hudson) and returning to the right side of the line, the poor work ethic and unreliable play that defined his tenure with the 49ers will more than likely return.

Mayock promptly followed that up by revealing the emphasis he placed on bringing in "high character guys" in his opening press conference was total bullshit by signing Vontaze Burfict and Richie Incognito. Nothing says "we cherish character" like a locker room that features the guy who is pissed that he was too young to get in on the sweet action of BountyGate and the guy at the center of the Dolphins bullying scandal who also threatened to shoot up a funeral home last fall.

You can't even use the "but they're talented!" excuse with these guys. Burfict has been wretched whenever he's been healthy enough to play over the past couple of years and Incognito was out of the league last season. Obviously rostering nothing but high quality human beings is a borderline impossible task, but don't go out and say that you're all about building a culture defined by class then turn around and sign a couple of the most despicable individuals currently playing in the league.

If you thought the head-scratching decisions were going to stop in free agency, you're in for a rude awakening. While there was some good value picks along the way (Josh Jacobs, Maxx Crosby, Hunter Renfrow), the bizarre picks at the top of the draft overshadowed a lot of the positives.

Selecting edge rusher Clelin Ferrell 4th overall was a move that legitimately rendered me speechless. I thought Ferrell was a very solid prospect that was a bit underrated overall, but there was absolutely no juice surrounding him as a top 5 pick and they likely could've landed him when they picked again at #24.

Their other 2 high picks besides Jacobs falls into a similar camp. Jonathan Abram was an overly aggressive, undisciplined college player that lacked the polish and versatility of many of the other top safeties in this class while corner Trayvon Mullen is a long press corner with a ton of question marks surrounding his instincts/ball skills. There's always the chance that these guys will make myself and the rest of their doubters looks like idiots, but I'd be very surprised if they are able to shed the overdrafted label that's been placed upon them.    
     
-Gruden famously said after his team struggled to generate sacks following the trade of Khalil Mack right before the start of last season that it was hard to find a good pass rusher. Apparently, it's also hard to find a defense that can stop the run, pass or prevent opponents from scoring at will. The Raiders finished 32nd in scoring defense (29.2 points allowed per game), 32nd in sacks (13 in 16 games, a whopping 17 behind the 2 teams that finished tied for 30th), 30th in rush defense (140.6 YDS allowed per game) and 19th in pass defense (240.8 YDS  allowed per game) during their nightmare 2018 campaign. That type of universal incompetence is honestly staggering and makes them the obvious favorite to be named the worst defense in the NFL heading into this season .

  Clearly, you have to shake things up when you're putting out such a universally sucky product on the field and shake things up they did with a slew of moves in the offseason. In addition to the aforementioned additions (Ferrell, Abram, Mullen, Burfict), the Raiders brought in plenty of people to compete for starting spots on the defensive line (Ethan Westbrooks, Corey Liguet), linebacking corps (Brandon Marshall, Te'Von Coney) and the secondary (Lamarcus Joyner, Nevin Lawson).

Outside of Joyner, who has been a pretty solid ballhawk safety for a while now, I don't expect any of these guys to make a real impact in 2019. You just can't close a talent gap this significant in a single season plus a lot of the guys they brought in are either rookies facing significant learning curves or veteran role players that have never or are no longer capable of excelling in a featured role. Pair all of these gaping holes with a schedule that features dates with offensive heavyweights from both conferences (Packers, Texans, Vikings) as well as their potent divisionmates and you've got a formula that should make DC Paul Gunther barf every week before kickoff.

-Alright time to say some nice things about the Raiders:
-Darren Waller has a very inspiring backstory (he's a recovering drug addict getting another chance to start in the NFL) and I think he'll do very well in this tight end-friendly system!

-Even though this offensive line pretty much stinks, I wouldn't be surprised if Jacobs ate well this season. There's no proven traditional running back behind him on the depth chart (pass-catching specialists Jalen Richard and DeAndre Washington are projected to be the top backups) and he's a tough/elusive enough runner that he should be able to find yards regardless of the quality of blocking in front of him.

-Hudson is a strong contender for best center in the league and I don't even think a stiff like Cable can ruin him!

-Their fans are among the most loyal and passionate in the league, so it's a major bummer that they're about to get their team taken away from them. I'm still not convinced Las Vegas is a good market for sports and even if it proves to be, their securing of an NFL franchise shouldn't have come at the expense of a fanbase that has stood by their team through countless years of suffering and already had to deal with their team being moved out of town once before. Fuck Mark Davis, the Nevada politicians and all of the other shady pricks that were involved in brokering this relocation.

Bottom Line:
The possible farewell season in Oakland is shaping up to be a properly sole crushing-farewell for a fanbase that truly deserves better than a perpetual trainwreck ran by a washed-up clown that's in way over his head.

Projected Standings:
1.Kansas City Chiefs (10-6)
2.Los Angeles Chargers (9-7)
3.Denver Broncos (8-8)
4.Oakland Raiders (5-11)

Thursday, August 22, 2019

Quick Movie Reviews: Hobbs & Shaw, The Kitchen, Good Boys

Hobbs & Shaw: Straying from the rest of the Fast and Furious family proved to be no problem for Dwayne Johnson and Jason Statham. The inaugural spin-off in the street racing turned over-the-top action blockbuster franchise manages to carve out its own path without losing the infectious camaraderie and unapologetically joyous, absurd spectacle that have made the recent central entries such a blast. The snarky chemistry between Johnson and Statham is an ideal building block for an even more comedic take on the globetrotting, world-saving adventures this franchise has become known for of late. Director David Leitch (Deadpool 2, Atomic Blonde) has a ball injecting inspired physical humor into each insane, exceptionally-staged action sequence and provides his leads with every opportunity to flex their underrated comedic chops while quickly dispatching legions of bad guys. It also helps that once again every new addition to the cast (Vanessa Kirby, Idris Elba, Eiza Gonzalez, Eddie Marsan, a pair of A-listers that make surprise appearances in bit parts) revels in the distinct self-aware absurdity that defines this universe and adds even more magnetism to a series where charisma reigns supreme. Hobbs & Shaw is a terrific addition to the Fast and Furious canon and hopefully just the first of many adventures for this endlessly entertaining odd couple.     

Grade: A-

The Kitchen:
What an absolutely baffling and astonishing waste of potential this turned out to be. The Kitchen features solid acting from a great ensemble cast (Melissa McCarthy, Tiffany Haddish, Elisabeth Moss, Domhnall Gleeson, Margo Martindale, Bill Camp), the gritty look/feel of a classic gangster movie and toys with some interesting ideas surrounding gender, race and the general structure of an organized crime syndicate throughout yet it somehow fails to be consistently compelling. After a pretty solid opening in which these mobster wives, their varying domestic situations and how they get involved in the criminal underworld their incarcerated husbands were apart of are introduced, the film inexplicably collapses. The high body count, self preservation-driven betrayals and final act plot twists that are commonplace in a rise-and-fall crime story like this are delivered so coldly and abruptly that absolutely none of it carries any weight. I don't know if this wall-to-wall emptiness was a result of choppy editing that cut out important scenes that added more context to the character's motivations or it was just a case of bad writing/directing, but the staggering lack of storytelling momentum is a fatal flaw that makes The Kitchen feel more and more disjointed as it goes along. There's a great crime tale buried somewhere in The Kitchen, it just unfortunately doesn't get spend to a lot of time on the surface.       

Grade: C-

Good Boys:
Trying to convincingly argue that Good Boys isn't a one joke movie would be a very difficult task. It's more or less just roughly 90 minutes of 12 year old kids swearing, not understanding sex/drugs stuff and getting into adult situations they are hilariously ill-equipped to handle. The important question is does that really matter if you're laughing hard enough? Not at all. Thanks to their perfect combination of unassuming charm and ace comic timing, all 3 leads (Jacob Tremblay, Keith L. Williams, Brady Noon) crush their roles as the inseparable best friends the title refers to and the script constantly throws hilarious curveballs that turns their misadventures over the course of a single day where they decide to skip school to prepare for a kissing party being held by a popular classmate into something very memorable. Underneath, there's also some pretty effective commentary on friendship and coming to the dreaded realization that not every bond you establish as a kid will last forever that delivers an important life lesson I didn't expect to see in this type of raunchfest. Like Booksmart, Good Boys is yet another terrific 2019 R-rated comedy that has a real chance to develop into a generational touchstone for kids currently working their way through the awkward transition from elementary to middle school (if their parents allow them to see it of course😉).
Grade: A-

Wednesday, August 21, 2019

The Best and Worst of Nick Nolte

“The Best and Worst of” series chronicles the career highlights and lowlights of an actor starring in one of the week's new theatrical releases. This week, I take a look at the filmography of “Angel Has Fallen” star Nick Nolte.

Films starring Nick Nolte that I've seen:
The Thin Red Line
Hulk
Hotel Rwanda
Tropic Thunder
Arthur
Zookeeper
Warrior
Gangster Squad
Parker
Noah
Run All Night

Best Performance: Warrior (2011)
As a recovering alcoholic trying to reestablish a relationship with his long estranged son (Hardy) in this tremendous sports drama, Nolte delivers a sincere, vulnerable performance that beautifully captures the struggle of a remorseful yet cold person trying to atone for the sins they committed in the past.    

Worst Performance: Hulk (2003)
Miscalculated overacting from a talented actor is easily my favorite hallmark of bad superhero movies. Nolte's unintentionally hilarious turn as the crazed, mutant poodle-handling father of Bruce Banner may be the most memorable part of this aggressively bad adaptation, but it's pretty terrible nonetheless.

Best Film: Warrior (2011)
With the end of the 2010's within sight, I can say confidently that Warrior is among my favorite movies released during this decade. On the surface, Warrior is a conventional inspirational sports underdog drama about a 30-something father (Joel Edgerton) who squares off against his estranged brother (Tom Hardy) in an MMA tournament. As prominent as the fighting elements are to the story, it's more of a family drama about addiction, abandonment and the long road to forgiveness/redemption at its core. The script skillfully handles its heavy themes without ever descending into sappy melodramatic territory while also providing excellent character development and all of the primary actors (Edgerton, Hardy, Nolte, Jennifer Morrison) give raw, moving performances that allow the unsurprisingly happy ending to become a beautiful moment of well-earned catharsis.

Worst Film: Hulk (2003)
The early stages of the superhero movie boom certainly wasn't the genre's finest hour. In fact, you could argue that the many failures (Daredevil, Fantastic Four, Ghost Rider) that stemmed from this era helped contribute to the formation of the well-oiled machine that is the MCU. Of the notorious, oft-mocked projects released from 2000-07, Hulk stands alone atop the trash heap. I'm all for giving a director complete creative freedom, but what Ang Lee did here could be why Marvel Studios meddles so much with the content and tone of their projects. This movie tries to combine grounded, arthouse-style storytelling with blockbuster spectacle, which results in a confused, absurd and boring mess that fails miserably as both a superhero origin story and a human drama.  

Thank you for reading this week's edition of “The Best and Worst of”. The next victim of my praise and ire will be “Don't Let Go” star David Oyelowo. 

Tuesday, August 20, 2019

2019 NFL Preview: NFC South

Atlanta Falcons
2018 Record: 7-9 (2nd in NFC South)
Head Coach: Dan Quinn (5th season)
Notable Additions: G James Carpenter, DT Tyeler Davison, RB Kenjon Barner 
Notable Departures: RB Tevin Coleman, G Andy Levitre (retired), CB Brian Poole
-The injury plague that afflicted the Falcons last season was arguably the most drastic case in recent memory. Nearly every key player on their roster (Deion Jones, Devonta Freeman, Keanu Neal, Ricardo Allen, Andy Levitre) outside of Matt Ryan and Julio Jones suffered a significant injury that kept them out for at least 10 games by the beginning of October. Losing that much talent on both sides of the ball so early in the year effectively kills your season before it even gets a chance to truly begin. Despite a couple of very bumpy stretches-particularly a 5 game losing streak from mid November through early December-stemming from this mass essential personnel loss, they still managed to finish 7-9 and edge out the Panthers for 2nd place in the division.

Considering that they were an average-to-below average team in a pretty much completely depleted state last season, they should immediately be back in the playoff hunt now that they've just about returned to full strength. Freeman gives this offense a much-needed versatile veteran playmaker in the backfield and with Jones, Neal and Allen back alongside defensive line anchor Grady Jarrett, this defense should regain the physical, athletic edge that it sorely lacked for much of last season.

Further adding to the buzz surrounding their ability to improve upon their tough 2018 campaign are the changes they made at both coordinator spots in the offseason. The return of Dirk Koetter, who was with the team from 2012-14, as OC should make this offense more gutsy than it was under Steve Sarkisian's rule the past 2 seasons and while he hasn't a defensive playcaller in 5 years, Dan Quinn's track record of excellence during his tenure with the Seahawks makes him taking over the DC a very bold move that could pay huge dividends for a group that's been up-and-down throughout his tenure in Atlanta. If they can at least get back to where they were prior to that massive injury pileup, a run at the division title won't be out of the question.

-Freeman has drawn raves throughout training camp for how explosive and confident he's looked after missing all but 2 games last season with foot and groin injures-the latter of which required surgery. Even though he appears to be at 100% heading into 2019 and the Falcons are confident he'll be able to slide back into the starting role right away with no limitations, their approach to the backfield situation seems a little bit blasé.

At 27, Freeman is approaching the point in time where most heavily-used running backs start to wear down. A timeshare arrangement like the one that the Falcons had between him and Tevin Coleman for the past 4 years is the best way to limit the odds of that decline from taking place. Keeping Coleman, who inked a 2-year deal with the 49ers in free agency, around as the 1B back would've been an unnecessary luxury at a time where they needed to pay key defensive pieces like Jarrett and Jones. Now that Coleman is gone and no veteran was brought in to replace him, I don't think the Falcons currently have a back that's capable of excelling in that key complementary role.

Ito Smith is an oft-injured power back whose ability to break off the occasional home run play is counteracted by the lack of yardage he gets on every other carry, Kenjon Barner is simply a warm body that seemingly can't stay employed in the same place for more than a half a season, rookie Qadree Ollison might not even make the active roster and despite a 100+ yard showing against the Panthers late last season, there's no real signs that Brian Hill can be a factor at the pro level.

To be fair to all of the guys vying to replace Coleman, there are a couple of encouraging factors that make filling this gig easier than it would be in a lot of other places in the league. Even with the retirement of Levitre, the Falcons offensive line is good enough to consistently create rushing lanes and the amount of weapons they have at receiver should prevent any back from facing a ton of crowded boxes. The opportunities will be there in this high-powered offense, it's just a matter of if someone can step in and help alleviate the burden placed on Freeman's shoulders or god forbid if he suffers another injury, take over as lead back.

-Vic Beasley's disappearance after posting a league-leading 15.5 sacks in 2016 has been utterly inexplicable and kind of fascinating. Truly nothing has stood out about his game since that season (he's registered 5 sacks in each of the last 2 seasons), which is bizarre for a guy who demonstrated that he has the speed, technique and instincts to make opposing quarterbacks absolutely miserable.

Their pass-rush has remained respectable (their 42 sacks in 2018 ranked 13th in the league) despite his perpetual mediocrity thanks to Jarrett and Takk McKinley, but imagine how dangerous the Falcons front would be if he played up to the potential he displayed just 3 short years ago? If a contract year and the flurry of cash that can come with that impending free agency status can't conjure up whatever made him such an explosive edge presence in 2016, nothing will.

Bottom Line:
If they can avoid catching the injury bug for a 2nd straight year, the Falcons have a great chance of returning to the postseason.          


Carolina Panthers
2018 Record: 7-9 (3rd in NFC South)
Head Coach: Ron Rivera (9th season)
Notable Additions: DT Gerald McCoy, C Matt Paradis, OLB Bruce Irvin 
Notable Departures: DE Julius Peppers (retired), OLB Thomas Davis, C Ryan Kalil
-Concerns over Cam Newton breaking down following a pair of shoulder surgeries in back-to-back seasons paired with the emergence of Christian McCaffery as a dangerous all-purpose back has forced a shift in offensive philosophy to occur in Charlotte. With an emphasis being put on running the ball and short passes as well as a desire to try and protect Newton from sustaining yet another injury, the front office made a logical choice to bolster their offensive line in the offseason.

Headlining this wave of additions is ex-Broncos center Matt Paradis. Paradis has been one of the league's most dominant run blockers over the past few seasons and should represent a huge upgrade at the position after the great Ryan Kalil finally started to show his age over the past couple of years.

Joining Paradis upfront is rookie tackle Greg Little, who they traded up to select at the top of the 2nd round. While Little likely won't see the field if Daryl Williams, who is coming back from a torn MCL that sidelined him for the last 14 games of 2018, can remain healthy, he was an excellent pass-protector at Old Miss that had one of the highest floors of any offensive lineman in this draft class. If these new additions can play up to expectations and 3rd year right tackle Taylor Moton can build upon his surprisingly solid 2018 campaign, this relative weakness they've had over the past couple of years could swiftly turn into a strength.

-Marty Hurney's didn't only address the front on the offensive side of the ball. With Carolina's uncharacteristically weak sack totals (35, 27th in the league) in 2018, it was evident that they needed to bring in some help at outside linebacker and along the defensive line to help prop up their ailing pass rush. They did just that with a flurry of savvy moves that could result in an abrupt turnaround for Eric Washington's crew.

1st round draft pick Brian Burns is a technician who could turn into a powerhouse in this league if he can add a bit more mass to his lanky frame (6'5, 250 lbs) without sacrificing his sensational burst off the edge and Bruce Irvin is an excellent short-term veteran pickup that has posted at least 6.5 sacks in 4 of the last 5 seasons.

The biggest addition of all was made possible by their division rivals in Tampa after they surprisingly cut ties with Gerald McCoy in late May. The 31-year old 4x All-Pro might not be as dominant as he was from 2012-2016, but he's still an effective presence at the line of scrimmage that should benefit from playing next to an elite gap eater in Kawann Short. He's also a strong, well-respected voice that should immediately become a leader in their locker room. Slotting these guys next to Luke Kuechly, Mario Addison and the aforementioned Short should give the Panthers a deep, exciting front that's capable of matching the high levels of productivity they enjoyed in the earlier stages of Rivera's tenure.
            
-Although there were some bumps along the way, D.J. Moore ended up having solid rookie year. He didn't get a lot of reps to start to the year and had a fumbling problem (he put the ball on the ground 4 times on just 72 touches last season) that shouldn't be taken lightly, but his rapport with Newton really developed in the back half of the season-which in turn made him a nice little vertical threat that registered 15 catches of 18+ yards in the final 10 games.

With that nice finish to his rookie season and a now solidified role as the top wideout, Moore could be headed for a breakout campaign in 2019. He reeled in an impressive 67.1% of his targets last season (55 REC on 82 TGTS with only 3 drops), is shifty enough to create extra yards after the catch and showed off a wider route tree than people expected from him in the pre-draft process. Short-yardage possession receivers Curtis Samuel and new addition Chris Hogan as well as the return of Newton's longtime favorite target Greg Olsen after an injury-shortened 2018 could cut into Moore's target share a bit, but his dynamism as an athlete and ability to take the top off of a defense in a receiver group that otherwise lacks those of players (at 30, Torrey Smith just isn't that guy anymore) gives him a huge leg up on the competition to emerge as the #2 offensive threat behind McCaffery.

-2019 could be the time where Riverboat Ron's luck finally runs out. His contract expires after this season and new owner David Tepper clearly doesn't have an allegiance to the coaching staff he inherited. Rivera has ran a damn fine operation in Carolina over the past 8 seasons-racking up 4 playoff appearances, 3 division titles and an NFC Championship in 2015. The problem is that despite that success, there's also been a lot of mediocrity along the way-especially in 2 of the 3 seasons where they've went 6-10 and 7-9 respectively. This team looks a little bit better on both sides of the ball heading into 2019, but Rivera is still going to need to do a hell of job to elevate this team out of the no man's land that is the middle of the NFL hierarchy in order to justify the Panthers handing him a new contract.

Bottom Line:
While overachievement is certainly possible if Rivera and Newton are at the top of their games, the Panthers seem destined to put together another average-to-above average season.  

New Orleans Saints
2018 Record: 13-3 (1st in NFC South)
Head Coach: Sean Payton (13th season)
Notable Additions: TE Jared Cook, RB Latavius Murray, C/G Nick Easton
Notable Departures: RB Mark Ingram, C Max Unger (retired), DE Alex Okafor 
-2018 ended for the Saints in heartbreak and controversy as the now infamous no call on a blatant pass interference by Nickell Robey-Coleman on Tommylee Lewis in the 4th quarter played a key role in them losing to the Rams in the NFC Championship Game. As appalling as that missed PI call was, the Saints inability to put the Rams away in the early stages of the game while they had all of the momentum along with their dud of an OT drive that ended in a brutal INT that eventually led to Greg Zuerlein's game-winning FG deserves more of the blame for their latest postseason letdown.

The harsh reality is that any of these runs could be the last chance the Saints have of winning another Super Bowl before Drew Brees retires, which makes what occurred last January even more painful for Saints fans. Despite showing no signs of aging thus far, Brees, who turned 40 in January, has repeatedly said that he doesn't share Tom Brady's goal of playing until he's 45 and with each exit on his increasingly disappointing playoff resume, the nightmarish reality of a post-Brees Saints team inches closer. Clearly it would be a huge shock if Brees deteriorated immediately following a season in which he completed 74.4% of his passes and had an absurd 6:4 TD: INT ratio (9th best all time), but history has repeatedly showed us that falling off a cliff doesn't tend to be gradual or expected, so the possibility that the time has passed for this Saints regime to bring home another Lombardi remains a disheartening potential truth.

-Half of the most prolific running back duo in the game walked away from the Saints this offseason when Mark Ingram bolted to the Ravens in free agency. Obviously the remaining half of said duo, Alvin Kamara, is complete and explosive enough to turn into a bellcow for this squad. However, the Saints realized that giving Kamara a much larger workload would be a silly mistake that could really effect his longevity in this game and went out and signed another vet to share the backfield with him. The man tapped with stepping into Ingram's role as the thumping complement to Kamara's electric sideline-to-sideline playmaking is Latavius Murray.

Murray is about as ideal of a replacement for Ingram as you could ask for. Like his predecessor in NOLA, the 29-year old UCF product is a tough, powerful runner with a nose for breaking the pylon in redzone situations, decent enough receiving skills to be used a bit in the passing game and has ample experience (48 career starts) being a key contributor in the backfield. His lower usage (1,027/1,548 touches) compared to Ingram also serves as a passable trade-off for their notable discrepancy in YPC  (4.1/4.5). This is the best situation in terms of running mate and offensive line that Murray has ever been in, so a career year in terms of TD's and YPC is certainly in play.

-There's no shortage of reasons why the Saints failing to capitalize on their championship window would be a soul-crushing letdown. This current roster features an arsenal of skill position talent (Kamara, Murray, Michael Thomas, Ted Ginn Jr., newly-signed tight end Jared Cook), has a solid offensive line that allows them to have a well-rounded attack and the sensational Brees could definitely use another ring to further solidify his legacy as an all time player at his position.

A big part of the reason why they've failed to even appear in another Super Bowl since their victory a decade ago has been their defensive struggles. Mickey Loomis had frequently undermined the prowess of their offense by putting a collection of sad stiffs on the field and the sidelines. Over the past couple of years, that problem has been eliminated as DC Dennis Allen and the likes of Marshon Lattimore, Marcus Williams and Sheldon Rankins have helped longtime defensive leader/unheralded star defensive end Cameron Jordan bring this group back to respectability.

Now last season was a bit of disappointment for this group, as they fell from 10th (20.4 points per game) to 14th in scoring defense (22.1 points per game). Rankins potentially being on the PUP list to start the year as he recovers from an Achilles tear is a tough blow, but there's still enough talent here for the Saints to possibly improve upon their rankings in 2018.

Their defensive line picked up a couple of nice depth pieces in Mario Edwards Jr. and Malcom Brown to work in alongside Jordan and David Onyemata while Rankins is out, this secondary has significant bounceback potential after a slightly down year from all their prominent young players save for Vonn Bell and even though it wasn't reflected in his sack total (4.5), Marcus Davenport showed enough promise during his rookie season to believe that a notable production bump could be on the horizon-which would make this already strong pass rush (49, tied for 5th in sacks) even more formidable. The contributions or lack thereof from this group is the X-factor in their continued pursuit of Lombardi and their play will be something worth closely monitoring as the season progresses.
       
Bottom Line:
As long as Drew Brees remains elite and this defense keeps opponents from scoring 68 points a game, the Saints are going to be a top threat to win the NFC.        

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2018 Record: 5-11 (4th in NFC South)
Head Coach: Bruce Arians (1st season)
Notable Additions: DT Ndamukong Suh, OLB Shaq Barrett, WR Breshad Perriman 
Notable Departures: DT Gerald McCoy, ILB Kwon Alexander, QB Ryan Fitzpatrick
-Following the 2017 season, Bruce Arians announced his retirement from coaching after 43 seasons in the college and pro ranks. After a year away which included a less than seamless transition to the broadcast booth, Arians is back on the sideline with many of the assistants he cherished during his days with the Cardinals (Todd Bowles, Harold Goodwin, Byron Leftwich, Larry Foote, Tom Moore, Mike Caldwell, Kevin Ross).

Of all the vacancies available, it's no surprise that he gravitated towards the Buccaneers job for his comeback. Inheriting an offense with this much god damn firepower has to be a dream scenario for the 67 year-old virtuoso who has oversaw his share of explosive offenses during his career.

While this offense was just fine under the guidance of Dirk Koetter and Todd Monken, they have a chance to hit a whole new level of lethal with Arians at the helm. Arians runs a system where the QB drops back, stands strong in the pocket and throws downfield strikes, which fits the Bucs current personnel perfectly. The top of their receiver depth chart (Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, O.J. Howard, Breshad Perriman) is full of vertical threats that have no problem going up to make contested catches and Jameis Winston's fearless/reckless gunslinger status makes him the perfect person to run this type of aggressive downfield offense.

A system like this being implemented is a win-win for all of the players and the front office guys that are trying to stay employed after hiring a new coach, but Winston should feel especially blessed that a scheme that was designed for QB's like him to thrive in was put in place the season before he hits free agency. Arians' arrival could end up landing him a long-term deal in Tampa and a lot more money than he would've earned following back-to-back inefficient seasons if he performs like he should.

-Honestly, the only thing that's not perfect about the Bucs' offense right now is their running game. As much as Arians loves to throw it, rushing the ball is also a key part of his scheme as evidenced by the insane workloads Rashard Mendenhall, Willie Parker and David Johnson were given while he was running the show. The problem is that the Bucs rushing game was horrifically ineffective last season (29th in the league in 2018 with a whopping 95.2 YDS per game) and they did nothing to change it in the offseason.

Does their offensive line deserve some blame for their woes in the running game? Sure. Ali Marpet is a stud guard that doesn't get nearly enough credit because of the stank emanating from his peers and Demar Dotson is a steady right tackle that displays legit dominance on occasion, but everybody else is pretty bad-especially left tackle Donovan Smith who somehow managed to land a 3-year extension this offseason. However, there are backs in the league right now (Melvin Gordon, Saquon Barkley, Joe Mixon) that have been highly productive behind lines that are just as bad, if not worse than this one.

The root of their ineffectiveness on the ground can be traced back to Peyton Barber and Ronald Jones. Barber is just your below average plug-and-play clown that can consistently fall forward for 3 yards and occasionally score a TD. He'd be a perfectly fine backup option, but he has absolutely no juice as a starter.

Barber might as well the unstoppable lovechild of Emmit Smith, Barry Sanders and Walter Payton when compared to Jones. Unlike the undrafted Barber, Jones had quite the pedigree in college and was expected to contribute right away when he was selected 38th overall in 2018. Instead, Jones struggled to the point where he was a healthy scratch for nearly half the season (he only dressed in 9 games) and ended up finishing his rookie season with a pathetic 77 scrimmage YDS and 1 TD on just 30 touches. How he struggled to earn playing time in a backfield with no depth or legitimate talent is completely beyond my comprehension. Arians might have some tricks up his sleeve to try and revitalize these duds, but he's going to have to pull off a series of miracles to make this rushing attack passable, let alone productive.

-Speaking of working miracles, Bowles is going to have to manufacture a few of his own to get this defense back on track. Part of the reason the Bucs offense led the league in passing YDS a year ago was because their defense was so wretched. Boasting a lowly 26th ranked pass D, 24th ranked run D and 31st ranked scoring defense (29.0 points allowed per game), they couldn't slow anybody down and that near universal ineptitude routinely took them out of games well before the 4th quarter started.

The road back to competency is naturally going to be a long one, but there's few coaches better qualified to take that challenge on than Bowles. He was the architect of a pair of top 7 scoring defenses during his last stint as Arians' DC with the Cardinals and his track record as a secondary coach with the Dolphins, Eagles and Cowboys before that where he aided in the development of several future Pro Bowlers including Vontae Davis, Reshad Jones and Terrence Newman is great.

As for this season, there's not many reasons to be optimistic. Their already weak pass rush got even worse with the release of Gerald McCoy and likely season-long absence of Jason Pierre-Paul following a car accident that left him with a neck fracture, the perpetually shaky Vernon Hargreaves is somehow still their top corner and they replaced the unreliable tackling of Kwon Alexander with the similarly unreliable (albeit much cheaper) tackling of Deon Bucannon.

Really the only possible sources of joy among this volatile group could come from a resurgent season from an angry Nduamkong Suh on his 2nd consecutive 1 year "prove it" deal, any of their young starters (Vita Vea, Justin Evans, Carlton Davis, rookie inside linebacker Devin White-who was picked 5th overall) flashing star potential and of course, the continued coverage/run-stuffing excellence of outside linebacker Lavonte David-whose decision to stick around in Tampa has provided a beacon of light even in the darkest of times. A breakout campaign from at least 1 of the young guys and a finish outside of the bottom 5 in scoring defenses would mark a nice start to Bowles' tenure here.            

Bottom Line:
The well-established wizardry of Bruce Arians should help them improve from the 5-11 record they've posted in 2 consecutive seasons, but there's far too many holes on this defense and quality teams in this division to get overly excited about the Bucs in 2019.      

Projected Standings:
1.New Orleans Saints (11-5)
2.Atlanta Falcons (10-6)
3.Carolina Panthers (8-8)  
4.Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-9)

Friday, August 16, 2019

Fantasy Football Sleeper Mania: 2019 Edition

Earlier this week, I focused on the overvalued high round picks that could blow up your season. Now, I turn my attention to the potential late round gems that are pivotal to just about every fantasy championship run. Here are my top sleepers heading into 2019.

Quarterback: Jameis Winston (Buccaneers) (ADP: Yahoo!: 118.3, ESPN: 159.5, NFL.com: 145.3)
A tendency to have a few multi-turnover games each season along with some accuracy problems has limited Winston's fantasy appeal over the past couple of years. However, 2019 may mark a return to glory for the Bucs gunslinger. Pairing an already lethal passing attack (#1 in the league last season) with a bright veteran coach in Bruce Arians that loves to air it out and the fact that Winston is playing for a new contract puts him on the QB1 radar as long as his INT total doesn't get too out of hand.
Honorable Mentions: Tom Brady (Patriots), Mitch Trubisky (Bears), Kirk Cousins (Vikings)
Deep Sleeper: Sam Darnold (Jets)

Running Back: Austin Ekeler (Chargers) (ADP: Yahoo!: 108.9, ESPN: 97.9, NFL.com: 123.1 )
If any training camp holdout ends up carrying over into the season, it's more than likely going to be Melvin Gordon. The Chargers are a notoriously stubborn organization that has no problem engaging in contract standoffs plus they have the luxury of having veteran backups that can step into starting lineup while Gordon's away from the team. The very real possibility that Gordon doesn't suit up for at least a portion of this season makes Ekeler a tremendous value at his current draft position. Running backs play a massive role in Ken Wisenhunt's offense and while he's not as elusive or powerful as Gordon, Ekeler boasts a similar versatility and should be productive enough to be a weekly RB2.
Honorable Mentions: Royce Freeman (Broncos), Darrell Henderson (Rams), Duke Johnson Jr. (Texans)
Deep Sleeper: Kallen Ballage (Dolphins)

Wide Receiver: Cortland Sutton (Broncos) (ADP: Yahoo!: 118.5 ESPN: 130.9 NFL.com: 133.7)
Joe Flacco may not be at his elite peak anymore, but the man still loves to sling the ball downfield. In his new home in Denver, the best bet to be on the other end of those frequent deep throws is Sutton. The SMU product quietly registered 42 REC/704 YD/4 TD during his rookie campaign last season, the competition behind him (Tim Patrick, DaSean Hamilton, rookie Noah Fant, 32-year old Emmanuel Sanders-who is coming of an Achilles tear) isn't particularly strong and early reports out of camp is that him and Flacco appear to be developing a strong rapport. If Sutton does end up becoming Flacco's preferred target, a 1,000+ yard season seems feasible.
Honorable Mentions: Dede Westbrook (Jaguars), John Brown (Bills), Golden Tate (Giants) 
Deep Sleeper: Kenny Stills (Dolphins)

Tight End: Mark Andrews (Ravens) (ADP: Yahoo!: 129.2, ESPN: 163.8, NFL.com: 145.4)
There's not single a late round player I covet this year more than Andrews. At a position with minimal depth, Andrews offers the ceiling of a 5th-6th round pick at a juncture of the draft where YOLO picks tend to reign supreme. The notable bump in production (13 REC, 308 YDS, 1 TD) he experienced in Lamar Jackson's 7 starts last season along with the advantage he has of being a holdover in a largely overhauled receiving corps makes him a formidable contender to emerge as the Ravens top receiving option in 2019.
Honorable Mentions: Vance McDonald (Steelers), Jack Doyle (Colts), Chris Herndon (Jets)
Deep Sleeper: Darren Waller (Raiders)

Defense/Special Teams: Cowboys (ADP: Yahoo!: 126.1, ESPN: 163.1, NFL.com: 136.6)
Takeaway totals are the only thing preventing each great real life defense I've mentioned here from being considered top-tier fantasy options. With their promising young defensive backs, the Cowboys have the best chance of anyone in this group of fixing that problem this season. Plus their front 7 is loaded and they have a number of very sketchy offenses on their schedule this season (Bills, Dolphins, Redskins, Giants).
Honorable Mentions: Bills, Colts, Broncos
Deep Sleeper: Titans 

Thursday, August 15, 2019

2019 NFL Preview: AFC South

Houston Texans
2018 Record: 11-5 (1st in AFC South)
Head Coach: Bill O'Brien (6th season)
Notable Additions: CB Bradley Roby, S Tashaun Gibson, RB Duke Johnson Jr.
Notable Departures: S Tyrann Mathieu, CB/S Kareem Jackson, CB Kevin Johnson
-While it ended on an ugly note with a lopsided 21-7 loss to the division rival Colts in his 1st ever playoff game, Deshuan Watson further solidified his status as a top-tier young quarterback in 2018. Watson ran the offense, which finished 11th in the league in scoring, beautifully amassing 4,165 passing YDS, another 551 YDS on the ground, a CMP % of 68.3 and 31 total TD's on the way to Bill O'Brien's 1st double digit win season as a head coach. The fact that he did all of this damage behind an atrocious offensive line while reacclimating to the game after missing the entire offseason program recovering from the torn ACL he suffered in October 2017 makes it even more impressive. Entering 2019 fully healthy with a nearly unchanged group of weapons puts him in the an excellent position to elevate his game even further in year 3. If he can retain the accuracy and precision under pressure (his 88.2 passer rating without a clean pocket led the league) he displayed last season without getting killed by the likely still awful offensive line, he should be a fixture on many 10 top quarterback lists come next offseason.

-If you were to compile a list of reasons why the Texans won't be able to repeat as AFC South champs, offensive line would likely be in the #1 spot. Even with their 11 wins last season, you could easily argue that they would've been even better if Watson didn't get sacked a league-high 62 times. Unsurprisingly, that embarrassing sack total forced them to address the position group this offseason after they threw next to no resources at this wildly problematic Achilles heel the previous year. However, their attempted solutions don't inspire a lot of confidence.

Matt Kalil was brought in off the scrap heap of washed-up vets to potentially play left tackle, which is especially alarming since the 30-year old missed all of 2018 after undergoing a knee scope. Joining the long-reeling Kalil is a pair of small school rookies in Tytus Howard and Max Scharping. Stop me if you'd heard this before, but both of these guys are big on athletic upside, but very shaky on technique. I'm sure those face-saving, buzzword-filled scouting reports will bring a lot of comfort to Watson as he mentally and physically prepares for another season full of regular meetings with his old friend the Turf.

Oh yeah, and you better believe every single starter from last season is still on the roster. As of right now, center Nick Martin, left guard Senio Kelemete and right guard Zach Fulton are even projected to start again!!!!! If Sentrel Henderson, who spent almost all of 2018 on IR with a broken ankle, ends up beating out Howard and Scharping for the right tackle spot, Watson might not ever stop smiling.

-No one seems to have a read on the Jadevon Clowney situation. He's been invisible since he was handed the franchise tag in early March and there seems to be no traction or even speculation about whether or not the Texans even offered a long-term deal prior to the July 15th deadline.

O'Brien himself said on Tuesday that he has no idea when or if Clowney's going to join the team and various media outlets have only added to the mystery surrounding his status by reporting everything from he's going to join the Texans after the 3rd preseason game to he's going to be traded to the Dolphins or Redskins by Week 1. With Whitney Mercilus coming off a down year, lack of proven depth on the edge and an overhauled secondary (Bradley Roby, Tashuan Gibson, Briean Boddy-Calhoun, rookie Lonnie Johnson Jr.) that would benefit greatly from the support a strong pass rush would provide them, they need Clowney more than ever. For the sake of their well-being in 2019, they better hope that this bizarre situation ends with Clowney reporting before Week 1.

-If 2019 proves to be a letdown for the Texans, O'Brien will likely be out the door. With GM Brian Gaine being fired in early June and no replacement being named, the door is open for the McNair family to put an end to the O'Brien's regime and let the new GM select a coach of their choosing. O'Brien has yet to get the job done in the playoffs (1-3) despite making it to the dance in 3 of his first 5 seasons as HC and no longer has the "we don't have a quarterback!" excuse to fall back on if they  make yet another Wild Card Weekend exit. There's never been more pressure on O'Brien to perform and he could be packing his bags if he fails to capitalize on the talent he has at his disposal yet again.

-Adding pieces during training camp is a risky proposition. You're providing a very limited window for a player to learn the playbook and develop a rapport with his new teammates, which makes contributing in year 1 a pretty sketchy bet. Despite the inevitable reservations that comes with those type of moves, acquiring Duke Johnson Jr. from the Browns could prove to be a huge pickup for the Texans. Johnson provides a nice piece of depth behind Lamar Miller, who has gotten at least 235 touches every year since 2014 and needs as much as rest as he possibly get at this point in his career, while also giving them a versatile receiving piece that can line up in the slot as well as catch passes out of the backfield. Johnson also provides a level of durability (he's yet to miss a game in 4 seasons as a pro) that the Texans receivers (Will Fuller, Keke Coutee) next to DeAndre Hopkins lack and has a level of freshness that most backs (his career-high total for touches in a season is 165 and that came during his rookie campaign) don't have the luxury of having at nearly 26. Johnson has the potential to play himself into a significant role in this offense right away and could become a serious factor if the chemistry between him and Watson develops quickly.  

Bottom Line:  
Despite seemingly no notable improvements to their offensive line and the potential absence of Jadeveon Clowney, Deshaun Watson, a pretty stacked group of offensive weapons and their still solid defense is enough to inspire hope that they can repeat as division champs.               

Indianapolis Colts
2018 Record: 10-6 (2nd in AFC South)
Head Coach: Frank Reich (2nd season)
Notable Additions: OLB Justin Houston, WR Devin Funchess, S Derrick Kindred
Notable Departures: DT Al Woods, S J.J. Wilcox, WR Dontrelle Inman
-Jim Irsay spoke about Andrew Luck's health on Tuesday, so that means the concerns over the severity of his injury are now even more legitimate. A reported calf strain, which he initially suffered during OTA's in April, has prevented the star quarterback from stepping onto the practice field since July 28th. Now according to Irsay, he also has "a little bone problem" in his lower left leg that's contributing to his absence. GM Chris Ballard further added to the story later in the day by saying that Luck is now dealing with a "high ankle issue". Just the type of developments Colts fans wanted to hear with the regular season less than a month away.

The vagueness surrounding what exactly Luck is dealing with is eerily reminiscent of what happened in 2017 when he missed the entire season with a shoulder ailment that was originally reported to be minor. Durability has always been a major question mark with Luck and after a terrific bounceback season last year where he appeared in all 16 games and battled his ass off to lead the Colts to a surprise playoff appearance after a 1-5 start, this red flag couldn't have reemerged at a worse time.

Jacoby Brissett may be a better than average backup option if this mystery lower body injury turns out to be something that sidelines him for significant time, but the Colts simply can not contend without Luck under center. While they may have a deeper cache of weapons (Marlon Mack, Eric Ebron, new addition Devin Funchess) surrounding T.Y. Hilton and much more polished offensive line than they did in 2017, Luck's playmaking prowess is what makes this offense dangerous and inserting a respectable game manager into the lineup in his place just isn't going to generate the same level of results. It's going to be a long few weeks in Indy as Colts players, coaches and fans wait for this potentially season-altering saga to unfold.

-Even if he's not forced to become a focal point of the offense in the wake of Luck's potential absence, Mack appears set to take another step forward in 2019. Having an actual offensive line in front of him boosted his yards per carry average from 3.8 as a rookie to 4.7 as a sophomore and with the exact same group of guys (Nykiem Hines, Jordan Wilkins, Jonathan Williams) behind him on the depth chart, the hard-running University of South Florida product should be able to hold onto the uncontested starting job that he won last October shortly after returning from a hamstring injury that caused him to miss 4 of the 1st 5 games of the season. His limitations as a receiver (only 38 receptions in 26 career games) will likely prevent him from becoming a 3-down sensation, but he should be able to net his 1st career 1,000-yard rushing campaign if he can stay on the field.

-Matt Eberflus' decision to remain defensive coordinator after Josh McDaniels bailed out of the head coaching job proved to be a massive blessing for the Colts. Their defense jumped from 26th to 6th against the rush, 28th to 16th against the pass and 30th to 10th in points allowed in his inaugural year on the job. Not only did the overall numbers improve, his coaching led to drastic improvements in play from several veterans (Pierre Desir, Kenny Moore, Margus Hunt) that were considered busts prior to playing in his system and very strong early development from their young starters (Darius Leonard, Malik Hooker, Anthony Walker Jr.).

Ballard gave Eberflus a few more intriguing pieces to work this offseason with the signing of free agent Justin Houston and drafting of corner Rock Ya-Sin, and linebackers Ben Bangou and Bobby Okereke. Houston is a prolific edge rusher (78.5 sacks in 102 career games) that should provide an immediate boost to a group that finished tied for 19th in sacks (38) last year and while all these young guys appear to be too raw to get significant reps right away, they're ideal fits for the fast, physical group that Eberflus is trying to build here. Tough defense is becoming an increasingly rare artform in an offense-driven league, but Eberflus is taking the right approach with his troops and could be well on his way to building a legitimate juggernaut in Indy.

Bottom Line:
The uncertainty surrounding Andrew Luck's health to start the season  is clouding an otherwise rosy forecast for the Colts.
             
Jacksonville Jaguars
2018 Record: 5-11 (4th in AFC South)
Head Coach: Doug Marrone (3rd season)
Notable Additions: QB Nick Foles, ILB Jake Ryan, TE Geoff Swaim 
Notable Departures: QB Blake Bortles, DT Malik Jackson, OLB Telvin Smith (retired)
-A scapegoat clearly needed to emerge after the Jaguars followed up a 2017 season where they made it all the way to the AFC Championship Game with a 5-11 season in 2018. Since Doug Marrone was spared (for now at least), quarterback Blake Bortles ended up being it. It was pretty much an inevitable move as Bortles got benched for Cody Kessler late in the year and couldn't replicate the magic he displayed during the 2017 campaign, but it was still a little bit of a shock to see them sever ties with him so quickly after inking him to a contract extension a year ago.

With Bortles gone, they had to open up their search for a new quarterback. Clearly with the construction of their roster and Marrone's hot seat status, they were going to opt to look for help in free agency over the draft. In 2019, this meant they were signing Nick Foles. Big Dick Nick was literally the only starting-caliber quarterback on the market this offseason and with no other QB-needy teams in pursuit of an expensive veteran, it was a foregone conclusion that he was headed to Jacksonville once the Eagles let him out of the final year of his deal.

Foles' reputation is obviously at an all time high after leading the Eagles to a wildly unlikely Super Bowl victory 2 seasons ago in relief of an injured Carson Wentz and stepping into save their season yet again in 2018 by making a miracle playoff push once Wentz went down with a back injury in early December. Here's the thing though: the clutch, turnover-averse warrior he often was during his 2 stints with the Eagles hasn't translated elsewhere.

His lone season as the Rams starter back in 2015 was a complete disaster where he posted 7 TD's and 10 INT's in 11 games before being benched for Case Keenum and eventually released. The Chiefs then cut ties with him as the backup following an uneventful 2016 season, a move which eventually paved the way for his redemption tour in Philly to take place.

Has Foles grown since the last time he left the city of Brotherly Love ? Possibly. He hadn't outdueled Tom Brady and become a Philly folk hero thanks to his ability to consistently come through in tough situations in huge games during his 1st stint with the Eagles. However, there isn't going to be a Doug Pederson and roster full of offensive weapons in Jacksonville to maximize his output. New offensive coordinator John DeFilippo, ironically a Pederson disciple, got fired by the Vikings last December before he could complete his 1st full season as their OC and their erratic offense is led by a largely inexperienced receiving corps headlined by 3rd year pro Dede Westbrook-who got just 717 YDS last season and running back Leonard Forunette-whose 1st 2 seasons in the league have been a roller coaster ride where injuries and questions about his work ethic have overshadowed the stretches of dominant play.

It's certainly possible that Foles' past relationship brings out the best in both of them (DeFilipo was Foles' QB coach with the Eagles in 2017), but DeFilippo's poor showing in both of his past 1 year stints as an NFL's OC paired with Foles' well-documented struggles when he isn't wearing a Midnight Green uniform makes the odds of them successfully turning around the Jags offense not particularly great.

-Marrone may have staved off extinction at the end of last year, but that doesn't mean his job is safe  by any means. 2018 was an absolute embarrassment for this franchise after they appeared to be on the cusp of emerging as the most legitimate threat to the Patriots reign of terror on the AFC to emerge in quite some time a year earlier and the lack of accountability Marrone put on his players was a crucial part of their heinous unraveling.

Now the burning question going into 2019 will be can Marrone adjust his way of doing things with his job likely on the line. Will he get on this team when they're putting forth poor effort? Can he successfully reestablish the mix of brashness, toughness and discipline that allowed them to have success in 2017 after falling into the dangerous trap that winning in pro sports is far easier than it actually is that many young teams can't avoid after experiencing a season defined by surprising success? Above all, can he can get guys to buy back into his system after going through such a nauseating season? If he doesn't execute most of these tasks and/or get this team back to playing a respectable brand of football, Tom Coughlin will have no problem swiftly kicking his bologna-loving ass to the curb before the season comes to a close.

-Even with the optimism some have surrounding Foles' arrival and the positive impact it could have on their long-suffering offense, this team is still built around the defense. Almost all of their best players reside on that side of the ball and Todd Wash's group somehow managed to allow the 5th least total yards (311.4 YDS per game) and 4th least points in the league (19.8 per game) during a season where nobody besides Calias Campbell and Marcell Dareus was playing anywhere close to the top of their game.

That quest to retain such a high level of play got notably harder this offseason. Veteran centerpiece/superb run-stuffer Telvin Smith suddenly stepped away from the game in May and thanks to some cap problems, they had to release safety Tashuan Gibson and defensive tackle Malik Jackson to free up space. Since they used just about all of the cap space they cleared to sign Foles, their replacements for these guys aren't particularly encouraging. With the exception of Jackson's replacement Adry Jones-a 7-year yet whose logged 32 career starts, all of their projected starters are very green. Their new starting safety duo (Ronnie Harrison, Jarrod Wilson) have a combined 10 career starts between them, 2nd year inside linebacker Leon Jacobs was invisible in 3 starts a year ago and rookie Quincy Williams, an athletically gifted yet undersized developmental dart throw that wasn't even on most team's draft boards, is now expected to start as a result of Smith's surprise retirement. Undergoing such a dramatic shift in experience not only makes this group susceptible to a talent-based regression, but could also build upon the discipline issues that derailed their 2018 campaign.  

It's not all doom and gloom for the Jags defense heading into 2019. Josh Allen is a tenacious, versatile edge defender with a super high ceiling that could serve as the perfect complement to QB terrorizer Yannick Ngakoue and Jake Ryan, who is likely to start the year on the PUP list as he recovers from a torn ACL he suffered last August, was a very productive inside linebacker during his time with the Packers. Pair these additions with resurgent campaigns from Ngkaoue, Jalen Ramsey, A.J. Bouye, and Myles Jack, and they could very well return to being the best damn defense in the league.

Bottom Line: 
As important as Nick Foles and Doug Marrone are to this team's chances of getting back into the thick of the AFC playoff hunt, a return to glory isn't going to happen if this defense doesn't at least come close to replicating the suffocating dominance they displayed throughout 2017.
            
Tennessee Titans
2018 Record: 9-7 (3rd in AFC South)
Head Coach: Mike Vrabel (2nd season)
Notable Additions: G Rodger Saffold, WR Adam Humphries, DE/OLB Cameron Wake
Notable Departures: G Quinton Spain, G Josh Kline, OLB Brian Orakpo (retired)
-Marcus Mariota's judgement day is finally upon us. Will the Titans choose to sign the 26 year old to a long-term deal after this season or hit the reset the button after an extensive run of staggering mediocrity? How 2019 ends up playing out for this seemingly perennial fringe playoff team will likely be the deciding factor in that decision.

At this point, you know what you're getting with Mariota. He's a game manager with average accuracy, solid mobility, respectable decisionmaking and a bad allergy that prevents him from getting into the endzone that's been roughly a .500 quarterback in a run-heavy system throughout his career thus far. That skill set might not get you a bust in Canton after you retire, but you can win playing that way if you have a roster that's built to shield the lack of playmaking prowess you have at the position. So far, it hasn't been as the Titans have only netted 1 playoff berth since Mariota arrived in 2015.

Clearly the confidence level in Mariota's ability to take the team to the playoffs in his contract year isn't tremendous as they acquired Ryan Tannehill from the Dolphins in the offseason. With longtime assistant Arthur Smith being promoted to offensive coordinator following the departure of Matt LaFluer, the conservative, smashmouth offense they've ran over the past several coaching regimes (Mike Munchak, Ken Wisenhunt, Mike Mularkey, Mike Vrabel) isn't going anywhere, so GM Jon Robinson figured if Mariota can't get the results, maybe fellow checkdown/handoff specialist Tannehill can. How Mariota responds to the pressure of having a comparable player behind him on the depth chart could very well be the difference between clinching the playoff berth he needs to secure a long-term home in Nashville and a disrespectful benching that would result in him getting jettisoned for somebody's whose more or less his doppelgänger.
       
-The Titans were within 1 game of getting the final Wild Card spot in the AFC last year largely because of Derrick Henry's absurd late season rampage. After not registering more than 58 yards and being stuck in a timeshare with Dion Lewis for the 1st 12 games, Henry turned into a dominant workhorse rushing for 585 YDS and 7 TD's over the final 4 games of the season. Clearly that type of Madden-esque production isn't sustainable, but seeing if Henry can build off of this amazing finish to 2018 is the most important narrative for the Titans in 2019.

The fact that Henry accumulated 585 yards of his 1,059 rushing YDS last season over a 4-game stretch is undeniably worrisome. Glancing at that stat along with Henry's career totals (2,293 YDS in 3 seasons) makes that run seem like a superhuman mirage in an otherwise forgettable career. That being said, I'm starting to think his so-so numbers prior to that 4-game explosion was largely caused by low volume. He averaged at least 4 YDS per carry in nearly half of the 1st 12 games last year, but only exceeded 11 touches in 3 of those games. This sturdy offensive line arguably managed to improve with the addition of Rodger Saffold in free agency and their RB depth remains pretty dismal, so why can't Henry continue to deliver as a workhorse back? If Henry emerges as a legit feature back for an entire season, this team's throwback smashmouth formula should work better than ever.    

-As you could deduce from the paragraphs above, I'm a Titans offensive truther. Handing a splashy deal (4 years/$36 mil/$19 mil guaranteed) to ex-Buccaneers slot receiver Adam Humphries and spending a 2nd round pick on deep threat A.J. Brown does not mean this offense isn't going to undergo a change in philosophy. They spent a top 10 pick on Corey Davis in 2017 and still barely throw the ball (28th and 31st in passing attempts respectively over the past 2 years). Running the ball is king in Nashville and unless Davis, Humphries, Brown and whoever else is employed to catch a few screen passes each game are all going to starve in this offense.

-If the offense can do their part and put a decent amount of points on the board, this defense fits the mold of a successful "protect a lead" type of team. The Titans were remarkably tough on D last season, finishing 3rd in points allowed (18.9 per game), 6th in passing defense (216.9 YDS per game) and tied for 10th in sacks (47). With nearly no turnover outside of exchanging retired Brian Orakpo for ageless sack master Cameron Wake at the left outside linebacker spot, Dean Pees' troops should be a behemoth once again.

Kevin Byard is the best ballhawk safety in the league that no one talks about, Jurrell Casey is an elite defensive line anchor that wreaks havoc on a weekly basis and they have a couple of young players (inside linebacker Jayon Brown, cornerback Adoree' Jackson) that appear to be on the verge of turning into full blown stars in this league. They could use a bit of work against the run and the takeaways absolutely need to be better for them to become truly feared, but they're one of the most underrated defenses in the league and given how much youth they have, they likely haven't even scratched the surface of their potential just yet. Watch out for these guys in 2019.

Bottom Line:
Despite boasting a terrific defense, the Titans weak, ultraconservative offense will likely keep them on the wrong side of the playoff picture for the 3rd time in the last 4 years.

Projected Standings:
1.Houston Texans (10-6)
2.Tennessee Titans (8-8)
3.Indianapolis Colts (7-9)
4.Jacksonville Jaguars (6-10)