Looking at your site of choice's player rankings as you prepare for a fantasy draft is an alternately exhilarating and horrifying experience. How you chose to maneuver that list of names, particularly in the early rounds, will likely be the difference between a season full of prideful triumphs or a whole lot of deep regret and extensive questioning about just what the hell you were thinking on draft day. Deducing what players you believe are being overvalued in the top rounds is easily one of the most essential parts in the pursuit of fantasy gold. Here are the coveted guys at each vital position that I believe to be not worth selecting at their current ADP.
Quarterback: Andrew Luck (Colts) (ADP: Yahoo: 46.1, ESPN: 61.4, NFL.com: 48.4)
In Luck's case, this has nothing to do with performance. The Colts signalcaller had his best year since his breakout campaign in 2014, finishing 5th in the league (4,593), 2nd in TD's (39) and 4th at the position in fantasy points (341.92). The problem is that while Luck's draft stock has surged, his significant injury concerns remain the same. He's currently battling a mysterious calf/lower leg/Achilles problem that has kept him out since the start of camp and knowing Luck's history, its entirely possible this keeps him out for the foreseeable future or that another ailment will pop up during the season. Obviously the rewards will be plentiful if holding him out of practice and preseason games ends up being just a precaution, but blowing a prime draft pick on an injury-prone player at a position that has plenty of depth is a super unnecessary risk.
Dishonorable Mentions: Baker Mayfield (Browns), Aaron Rodgers (Packers), Cam Newton (Panthers)
Running Back: Dalvin Cook (Vikings) (Yahoo: 19.7, ESPN: 25.7, NFL.com: 24.3)
Todd Gurley was in strong consideration here due to his complete physical breakdown at the end of last season, but the bounceback potential his impressive resume has earned him was just enough to make him the runner-up. On the other hand, Cook has done absolutely nothing to earn his high draft status. He's only appeared in 15 games over the course of his 1st 2 years in the league, has been thoroughly inconsistent when he's actually been on the field and remains stuck behind a bottom 3 offensive line in the league. With their more versatile skill sets and better o-lines, Marlon Mack, Aaron Jones and Devonta Freeman are all much more intriguing picks at a slightly cheaper price tag (high 20's to mid 30's).
Honorable Mentions: Todd Gurley (Rams), Damien Williams (Chiefs), Nick Chubb (Browns)
Wide Receiver: Antonio Brown (Raiders) (ADP: Yahoo: 21.7, ESPN: 18.7, NFL.com: 18.7)
I honestly can't believe I'm mentioning Brown here. He's been arguably the most consistent fantasy player on the planet since 2013, racking up at least 101 catches, 1,284 YDS and 8 TD's in each of those seasons. Now as a result of threatening retirement because he refuses to comply with the NFL's new helmet rule and going from future Hall-of-Famer Ben Roethlisberger to wildly overpaid punchline Derek Carr at the QB position, he's damn near undraftable. What a sudden and drastic fall from grace for the former best receiver in the league.
Honorable Mentions: Calvin Ridley (Falcons), A.J. Green (Bengals), Mike Williams (Chargers)
Tight End: Evan Engram (Giants) (ADP: Yahoo: 59.5, ESPN: 52.2, NFL.com: 50.5)
Nabbing tight ends in the middle rounds is becoming a more common practice thanks to the terrible depth at the position. However, I believe this trend is getting completely out of hand this season and Engram's early 5th round ADP on 2 of the 3 biggest sites is the best example of this insanity I've found to date. While Engram is an athletic freak and seems very likely to see a bump in targets thanks to the departure of Odell Beckham Jr., he's still apart of an anemic passing offense and is coming off a very forgettable 2018 in which he put up middling numbers (45 REC/577 YDS/3 TD's) and missed 5 games with a nagging hamstring injury-which also gave him problems in the early stages of this season's offseason program. If you're seeking a tight end in the 5th or 6th round, there are a number of vertical threats that are apart of more dynamic offenses (O.J. Howard, Jared Cook, Hunter Henry to a lesser extent) that all boast more upside than Engram.
Honorable Mentions: Eric Ebron (Colts), David Njoku (Browns), Jimmy Graham (Packers)
Defense/Special Teams: Jaguars (ADP: Yahoo: 80.9, ESPN: 98.1, NFL.com: 83.2)
There's a very slim chance that the Jags defense is as underwhelming in 2019 as they were in 2018. Whatever overconfidence existed as a result of their magical 2017 run that saw them almost beat the Patriots on the road in the AFC Championship Game was knocked out over the course of their 5-11 follow-up campaign plus there's just too much top-tier talent here (Jalen Ramsey, Calias Campbell, Yannick Ngakoue, A.J. Bouye, Marcell Dareus, Myles Jack) to believe they're going to put middling sack/takeaway (37/17) totals for a 2nd straight season. That being said, they're still a risky bet to be a top 5 fantasy defense this year. All-Pro outside linebacker Telvin Smith has effectively retired and the lack of experience they have at safety (current projected starters Ronnie Harrison and Jarrod Wilson have a combined 10 career starts) is very alarming for a secondary that lacked discipline throughout 2018.
Honorable Mentions: Ravens, Rams, Browns
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