Atlanta Falcons
2018 Record: 7-9 (2nd in NFC South)
Head Coach: Dan Quinn (5th season)
Notable Additions: G James Carpenter, DT Tyeler Davison, RB Kenjon Barner
Notable Departures: RB Tevin Coleman, G Andy Levitre (retired), CB Brian Poole
-The injury plague that afflicted the Falcons last season was arguably the most drastic case in recent memory. Nearly every key player on their roster (Deion Jones, Devonta Freeman, Keanu Neal, Ricardo Allen, Andy Levitre) outside of Matt Ryan and Julio Jones suffered a significant injury that kept them out for at least 10 games by the beginning of October. Losing that much talent on both sides of the ball so early in the year effectively kills your season before it even gets a chance to truly begin. Despite a couple of very bumpy stretches-particularly a 5 game losing streak from mid November through early December-stemming from this mass essential personnel loss, they still managed to finish 7-9 and edge out the Panthers for 2nd place in the division.
Considering that they were an average-to-below average team in a pretty much completely depleted state last season, they should immediately be back in the playoff hunt now that they've just about returned to full strength. Freeman gives this offense a much-needed versatile veteran playmaker in the backfield and with Jones, Neal and Allen back alongside defensive line anchor Grady Jarrett, this defense should regain the physical, athletic edge that it sorely lacked for much of last season.
Further adding to the buzz surrounding their ability to improve upon their tough 2018 campaign are the changes they made at both coordinator spots in the offseason. The return of Dirk Koetter, who was with the team from 2012-14, as OC should make this offense more gutsy than it was under Steve Sarkisian's rule the past 2 seasons and while he hasn't a defensive playcaller in 5 years, Dan Quinn's track record of excellence during his tenure with the Seahawks makes him taking over the DC a very bold move that could pay huge dividends for a group that's been up-and-down throughout his tenure in Atlanta. If they can at least get back to where they were prior to that massive injury pileup, a run at the division title won't be out of the question.
-Freeman has drawn raves throughout training camp for how explosive and confident he's looked after missing all but 2 games last season with foot and groin injures-the latter of which required surgery. Even though he appears to be at 100% heading into 2019 and the Falcons are confident he'll be able to slide back into the starting role right away with no limitations, their approach to the backfield situation seems a little bit blasé.
At 27, Freeman is approaching the point in time where most heavily-used running backs start to wear down. A timeshare arrangement like the one that the Falcons had between him and Tevin Coleman for the past 4 years is the best way to limit the odds of that decline from taking place. Keeping Coleman, who inked a 2-year deal with the 49ers in free agency, around as the 1B back would've been an unnecessary luxury at a time where they needed to pay key defensive pieces like Jarrett and Jones. Now that Coleman is gone and no veteran was brought in to replace him, I don't think the Falcons currently have a back that's capable of excelling in that key complementary role.
Ito Smith is an oft-injured power back whose ability to break off the occasional home run play is counteracted by the lack of yardage he gets on every other carry, Kenjon Barner is simply a warm body that seemingly can't stay employed in the same place for more than a half a season, rookie Qadree Ollison might not even make the active roster and despite a 100+ yard showing against the Panthers late last season, there's no real signs that Brian Hill can be a factor at the pro level.
To be fair to all of the guys vying to replace Coleman, there are a couple of encouraging factors that make filling this gig easier than it would be in a lot of other places in the league. Even with the retirement of Levitre, the Falcons offensive line is good enough to consistently create rushing lanes and the amount of weapons they have at receiver should prevent any back from facing a ton of crowded boxes. The opportunities will be there in this high-powered offense, it's just a matter of if someone can step in and help alleviate the burden placed on Freeman's shoulders or god forbid if he suffers another injury, take over as lead back.
-Vic Beasley's disappearance after posting a league-leading 15.5 sacks in 2016 has been utterly inexplicable and kind of fascinating. Truly nothing has stood out about his game since that season (he's registered 5 sacks in each of the last 2 seasons), which is bizarre for a guy who demonstrated that he has the speed, technique and instincts to make opposing quarterbacks absolutely miserable.
Their pass-rush has remained respectable (their 42 sacks in 2018 ranked 13th in the league) despite his perpetual mediocrity thanks to Jarrett and Takk McKinley, but imagine how dangerous the Falcons front would be if he played up to the potential he displayed just 3 short years ago? If a contract year and the flurry of cash that can come with that impending free agency status can't conjure up whatever made him such an explosive edge presence in 2016, nothing will.
Bottom Line:
If they can avoid catching the injury bug for a 2nd straight year, the Falcons have a great chance of returning to the postseason.
-The injury plague that afflicted the Falcons last season was arguably the most drastic case in recent memory. Nearly every key player on their roster (Deion Jones, Devonta Freeman, Keanu Neal, Ricardo Allen, Andy Levitre) outside of Matt Ryan and Julio Jones suffered a significant injury that kept them out for at least 10 games by the beginning of October. Losing that much talent on both sides of the ball so early in the year effectively kills your season before it even gets a chance to truly begin. Despite a couple of very bumpy stretches-particularly a 5 game losing streak from mid November through early December-stemming from this mass essential personnel loss, they still managed to finish 7-9 and edge out the Panthers for 2nd place in the division.
Considering that they were an average-to-below average team in a pretty much completely depleted state last season, they should immediately be back in the playoff hunt now that they've just about returned to full strength. Freeman gives this offense a much-needed versatile veteran playmaker in the backfield and with Jones, Neal and Allen back alongside defensive line anchor Grady Jarrett, this defense should regain the physical, athletic edge that it sorely lacked for much of last season.
Further adding to the buzz surrounding their ability to improve upon their tough 2018 campaign are the changes they made at both coordinator spots in the offseason. The return of Dirk Koetter, who was with the team from 2012-14, as OC should make this offense more gutsy than it was under Steve Sarkisian's rule the past 2 seasons and while he hasn't a defensive playcaller in 5 years, Dan Quinn's track record of excellence during his tenure with the Seahawks makes him taking over the DC a very bold move that could pay huge dividends for a group that's been up-and-down throughout his tenure in Atlanta. If they can at least get back to where they were prior to that massive injury pileup, a run at the division title won't be out of the question.
-Freeman has drawn raves throughout training camp for how explosive and confident he's looked after missing all but 2 games last season with foot and groin injures-the latter of which required surgery. Even though he appears to be at 100% heading into 2019 and the Falcons are confident he'll be able to slide back into the starting role right away with no limitations, their approach to the backfield situation seems a little bit blasé.
At 27, Freeman is approaching the point in time where most heavily-used running backs start to wear down. A timeshare arrangement like the one that the Falcons had between him and Tevin Coleman for the past 4 years is the best way to limit the odds of that decline from taking place. Keeping Coleman, who inked a 2-year deal with the 49ers in free agency, around as the 1B back would've been an unnecessary luxury at a time where they needed to pay key defensive pieces like Jarrett and Jones. Now that Coleman is gone and no veteran was brought in to replace him, I don't think the Falcons currently have a back that's capable of excelling in that key complementary role.
Ito Smith is an oft-injured power back whose ability to break off the occasional home run play is counteracted by the lack of yardage he gets on every other carry, Kenjon Barner is simply a warm body that seemingly can't stay employed in the same place for more than a half a season, rookie Qadree Ollison might not even make the active roster and despite a 100+ yard showing against the Panthers late last season, there's no real signs that Brian Hill can be a factor at the pro level.
To be fair to all of the guys vying to replace Coleman, there are a couple of encouraging factors that make filling this gig easier than it would be in a lot of other places in the league. Even with the retirement of Levitre, the Falcons offensive line is good enough to consistently create rushing lanes and the amount of weapons they have at receiver should prevent any back from facing a ton of crowded boxes. The opportunities will be there in this high-powered offense, it's just a matter of if someone can step in and help alleviate the burden placed on Freeman's shoulders or god forbid if he suffers another injury, take over as lead back.
-Vic Beasley's disappearance after posting a league-leading 15.5 sacks in 2016 has been utterly inexplicable and kind of fascinating. Truly nothing has stood out about his game since that season (he's registered 5 sacks in each of the last 2 seasons), which is bizarre for a guy who demonstrated that he has the speed, technique and instincts to make opposing quarterbacks absolutely miserable.
Their pass-rush has remained respectable (their 42 sacks in 2018 ranked 13th in the league) despite his perpetual mediocrity thanks to Jarrett and Takk McKinley, but imagine how dangerous the Falcons front would be if he played up to the potential he displayed just 3 short years ago? If a contract year and the flurry of cash that can come with that impending free agency status can't conjure up whatever made him such an explosive edge presence in 2016, nothing will.
Bottom Line:
If they can avoid catching the injury bug for a 2nd straight year, the Falcons have a great chance of returning to the postseason.
Carolina Panthers
2018 Record: 7-9 (3rd in NFC South)
Head Coach: Ron Rivera (9th season)
Notable Additions: DT Gerald McCoy, C Matt Paradis, OLB Bruce Irvin
Notable Departures: DE Julius Peppers (retired), OLB Thomas Davis, C Ryan Kalil
-Concerns over Cam Newton breaking down following a pair of shoulder surgeries in back-to-back seasons paired with the emergence of Christian McCaffery as a dangerous all-purpose back has forced a shift in offensive philosophy to occur in Charlotte. With an emphasis being put on running the ball and short passes as well as a desire to try and protect Newton from sustaining yet another injury, the front office made a logical choice to bolster their offensive line in the offseason.
Headlining this wave of additions is ex-Broncos center Matt Paradis. Paradis has been one of the league's most dominant run blockers over the past few seasons and should represent a huge upgrade at the position after the great Ryan Kalil finally started to show his age over the past couple of years.
Joining Paradis upfront is rookie tackle Greg Little, who they traded up to select at the top of the 2nd round. While Little likely won't see the field if Daryl Williams, who is coming back from a torn MCL that sidelined him for the last 14 games of 2018, can remain healthy, he was an excellent pass-protector at Old Miss that had one of the highest floors of any offensive lineman in this draft class. If these new additions can play up to expectations and 3rd year right tackle Taylor Moton can build upon his surprisingly solid 2018 campaign, this relative weakness they've had over the past couple of years could swiftly turn into a strength.
-Marty Hurney's didn't only address the front on the offensive side of the ball. With Carolina's uncharacteristically weak sack totals (35, 27th in the league) in 2018, it was evident that they needed to bring in some help at outside linebacker and along the defensive line to help prop up their ailing pass rush. They did just that with a flurry of savvy moves that could result in an abrupt turnaround for Eric Washington's crew.
1st round draft pick Brian Burns is a technician who could turn into a powerhouse in this league if he can add a bit more mass to his lanky frame (6'5, 250 lbs) without sacrificing his sensational burst off the edge and Bruce Irvin is an excellent short-term veteran pickup that has posted at least 6.5 sacks in 4 of the last 5 seasons.
The biggest addition of all was made possible by their division rivals in Tampa after they surprisingly cut ties with Gerald McCoy in late May. The 31-year old 4x All-Pro might not be as dominant as he was from 2012-2016, but he's still an effective presence at the line of scrimmage that should benefit from playing next to an elite gap eater in Kawann Short. He's also a strong, well-respected voice that should immediately become a leader in their locker room. Slotting these guys next to Luke Kuechly, Mario Addison and the aforementioned Short should give the Panthers a deep, exciting front that's capable of matching the high levels of productivity they enjoyed in the earlier stages of Rivera's tenure.
-Although there were some bumps along the way, D.J. Moore ended up having solid rookie year. He didn't get a lot of reps to start to the year and had a fumbling problem (he put the ball on the ground 4 times on just 72 touches last season) that shouldn't be taken lightly, but his rapport with Newton really developed in the back half of the season-which in turn made him a nice little vertical threat that registered 15 catches of 18+ yards in the final 10 games.
With that nice finish to his rookie season and a now solidified role as the top wideout, Moore could be headed for a breakout campaign in 2019. He reeled in an impressive 67.1% of his targets last season (55 REC on 82 TGTS with only 3 drops), is shifty enough to create extra yards after the catch and showed off a wider route tree than people expected from him in the pre-draft process. Short-yardage possession receivers Curtis Samuel and new addition Chris Hogan as well as the return of Newton's longtime favorite target Greg Olsen after an injury-shortened 2018 could cut into Moore's target share a bit, but his dynamism as an athlete and ability to take the top off of a defense in a receiver group that otherwise lacks those of players (at 30, Torrey Smith just isn't that guy anymore) gives him a huge leg up on the competition to emerge as the #2 offensive threat behind McCaffery.
-2019 could be the time where Riverboat Ron's luck finally runs out. His contract expires after this season and new owner David Tepper clearly doesn't have an allegiance to the coaching staff he inherited. Rivera has ran a damn fine operation in Carolina over the past 8 seasons-racking up 4 playoff appearances, 3 division titles and an NFC Championship in 2015. The problem is that despite that success, there's also been a lot of mediocrity along the way-especially in 2 of the 3 seasons where they've went 6-10 and 7-9 respectively. This team looks a little bit better on both sides of the ball heading into 2019, but Rivera is still going to need to do a hell of job to elevate this team out of the no man's land that is the middle of the NFL hierarchy in order to justify the Panthers handing him a new contract.
Bottom Line:
While overachievement is certainly possible if Rivera and Newton are at the top of their games, the Panthers seem destined to put together another average-to-above average season.
-Concerns over Cam Newton breaking down following a pair of shoulder surgeries in back-to-back seasons paired with the emergence of Christian McCaffery as a dangerous all-purpose back has forced a shift in offensive philosophy to occur in Charlotte. With an emphasis being put on running the ball and short passes as well as a desire to try and protect Newton from sustaining yet another injury, the front office made a logical choice to bolster their offensive line in the offseason.
Headlining this wave of additions is ex-Broncos center Matt Paradis. Paradis has been one of the league's most dominant run blockers over the past few seasons and should represent a huge upgrade at the position after the great Ryan Kalil finally started to show his age over the past couple of years.
Joining Paradis upfront is rookie tackle Greg Little, who they traded up to select at the top of the 2nd round. While Little likely won't see the field if Daryl Williams, who is coming back from a torn MCL that sidelined him for the last 14 games of 2018, can remain healthy, he was an excellent pass-protector at Old Miss that had one of the highest floors of any offensive lineman in this draft class. If these new additions can play up to expectations and 3rd year right tackle Taylor Moton can build upon his surprisingly solid 2018 campaign, this relative weakness they've had over the past couple of years could swiftly turn into a strength.
-Marty Hurney's didn't only address the front on the offensive side of the ball. With Carolina's uncharacteristically weak sack totals (35, 27th in the league) in 2018, it was evident that they needed to bring in some help at outside linebacker and along the defensive line to help prop up their ailing pass rush. They did just that with a flurry of savvy moves that could result in an abrupt turnaround for Eric Washington's crew.
1st round draft pick Brian Burns is a technician who could turn into a powerhouse in this league if he can add a bit more mass to his lanky frame (6'5, 250 lbs) without sacrificing his sensational burst off the edge and Bruce Irvin is an excellent short-term veteran pickup that has posted at least 6.5 sacks in 4 of the last 5 seasons.
The biggest addition of all was made possible by their division rivals in Tampa after they surprisingly cut ties with Gerald McCoy in late May. The 31-year old 4x All-Pro might not be as dominant as he was from 2012-2016, but he's still an effective presence at the line of scrimmage that should benefit from playing next to an elite gap eater in Kawann Short. He's also a strong, well-respected voice that should immediately become a leader in their locker room. Slotting these guys next to Luke Kuechly, Mario Addison and the aforementioned Short should give the Panthers a deep, exciting front that's capable of matching the high levels of productivity they enjoyed in the earlier stages of Rivera's tenure.
-Although there were some bumps along the way, D.J. Moore ended up having solid rookie year. He didn't get a lot of reps to start to the year and had a fumbling problem (he put the ball on the ground 4 times on just 72 touches last season) that shouldn't be taken lightly, but his rapport with Newton really developed in the back half of the season-which in turn made him a nice little vertical threat that registered 15 catches of 18+ yards in the final 10 games.
With that nice finish to his rookie season and a now solidified role as the top wideout, Moore could be headed for a breakout campaign in 2019. He reeled in an impressive 67.1% of his targets last season (55 REC on 82 TGTS with only 3 drops), is shifty enough to create extra yards after the catch and showed off a wider route tree than people expected from him in the pre-draft process. Short-yardage possession receivers Curtis Samuel and new addition Chris Hogan as well as the return of Newton's longtime favorite target Greg Olsen after an injury-shortened 2018 could cut into Moore's target share a bit, but his dynamism as an athlete and ability to take the top off of a defense in a receiver group that otherwise lacks those of players (at 30, Torrey Smith just isn't that guy anymore) gives him a huge leg up on the competition to emerge as the #2 offensive threat behind McCaffery.
-2019 could be the time where Riverboat Ron's luck finally runs out. His contract expires after this season and new owner David Tepper clearly doesn't have an allegiance to the coaching staff he inherited. Rivera has ran a damn fine operation in Carolina over the past 8 seasons-racking up 4 playoff appearances, 3 division titles and an NFC Championship in 2015. The problem is that despite that success, there's also been a lot of mediocrity along the way-especially in 2 of the 3 seasons where they've went 6-10 and 7-9 respectively. This team looks a little bit better on both sides of the ball heading into 2019, but Rivera is still going to need to do a hell of job to elevate this team out of the no man's land that is the middle of the NFL hierarchy in order to justify the Panthers handing him a new contract.
Bottom Line:
While overachievement is certainly possible if Rivera and Newton are at the top of their games, the Panthers seem destined to put together another average-to-above average season.
New Orleans Saints
2018 Record: 13-3 (1st in NFC South)
Head Coach: Sean Payton (13th season)
Notable Additions: TE Jared Cook, RB Latavius Murray, C/G Nick Easton
Notable Departures: RB Mark Ingram, C Max Unger (retired), DE Alex Okafor
-2018 ended for the Saints in heartbreak and controversy as the now infamous no call on a blatant pass interference by Nickell Robey-Coleman on Tommylee Lewis in the 4th quarter played a key role in them losing to the Rams in the NFC Championship Game. As appalling as that missed PI call was, the Saints inability to put the Rams away in the early stages of the game while they had all of the momentum along with their dud of an OT drive that ended in a brutal INT that eventually led to Greg Zuerlein's game-winning FG deserves more of the blame for their latest postseason letdown.
The harsh reality is that any of these runs could be the last chance the Saints have of winning another Super Bowl before Drew Brees retires, which makes what occurred last January even more painful for Saints fans. Despite showing no signs of aging thus far, Brees, who turned 40 in January, has repeatedly said that he doesn't share Tom Brady's goal of playing until he's 45 and with each exit on his increasingly disappointing playoff resume, the nightmarish reality of a post-Brees Saints team inches closer. Clearly it would be a huge shock if Brees deteriorated immediately following a season in which he completed 74.4% of his passes and had an absurd 6:4 TD: INT ratio (9th best all time), but history has repeatedly showed us that falling off a cliff doesn't tend to be gradual or expected, so the possibility that the time has passed for this Saints regime to bring home another Lombardi remains a disheartening potential truth.
-Half of the most prolific running back duo in the game walked away from the Saints this offseason when Mark Ingram bolted to the Ravens in free agency. Obviously the remaining half of said duo, Alvin Kamara, is complete and explosive enough to turn into a bellcow for this squad. However, the Saints realized that giving Kamara a much larger workload would be a silly mistake that could really effect his longevity in this game and went out and signed another vet to share the backfield with him. The man tapped with stepping into Ingram's role as the thumping complement to Kamara's electric sideline-to-sideline playmaking is Latavius Murray.
Murray is about as ideal of a replacement for Ingram as you could ask for. Like his predecessor in NOLA, the 29-year old UCF product is a tough, powerful runner with a nose for breaking the pylon in redzone situations, decent enough receiving skills to be used a bit in the passing game and has ample experience (48 career starts) being a key contributor in the backfield. His lower usage (1,027/1,548 touches) compared to Ingram also serves as a passable trade-off for their notable discrepancy in YPC (4.1/4.5). This is the best situation in terms of running mate and offensive line that Murray has ever been in, so a career year in terms of TD's and YPC is certainly in play.
-There's no shortage of reasons why the Saints failing to capitalize on their championship window would be a soul-crushing letdown. This current roster features an arsenal of skill position talent (Kamara, Murray, Michael Thomas, Ted Ginn Jr., newly-signed tight end Jared Cook), has a solid offensive line that allows them to have a well-rounded attack and the sensational Brees could definitely use another ring to further solidify his legacy as an all time player at his position.
A big part of the reason why they've failed to even appear in another Super Bowl since their victory a decade ago has been their defensive struggles. Mickey Loomis had frequently undermined the prowess of their offense by putting a collection of sad stiffs on the field and the sidelines. Over the past couple of years, that problem has been eliminated as DC Dennis Allen and the likes of Marshon Lattimore, Marcus Williams and Sheldon Rankins have helped longtime defensive leader/unheralded star defensive end Cameron Jordan bring this group back to respectability.
Now last season was a bit of disappointment for this group, as they fell from 10th (20.4 points per game) to 14th in scoring defense (22.1 points per game). Rankins potentially being on the PUP list to start the year as he recovers from an Achilles tear is a tough blow, but there's still enough talent here for the Saints to possibly improve upon their rankings in 2018.
Their defensive line picked up a couple of nice depth pieces in Mario Edwards Jr. and Malcom Brown to work in alongside Jordan and David Onyemata while Rankins is out, this secondary has significant bounceback potential after a slightly down year from all their prominent young players save for Vonn Bell and even though it wasn't reflected in his sack total (4.5), Marcus Davenport showed enough promise during his rookie season to believe that a notable production bump could be on the horizon-which would make this already strong pass rush (49, tied for 5th in sacks) even more formidable. The contributions or lack thereof from this group is the X-factor in their continued pursuit of Lombardi and their play will be something worth closely monitoring as the season progresses.
Bottom Line:
As long as Drew Brees remains elite and this defense keeps opponents from scoring 68 points a game, the Saints are going to be a top threat to win the NFC.
-2018 ended for the Saints in heartbreak and controversy as the now infamous no call on a blatant pass interference by Nickell Robey-Coleman on Tommylee Lewis in the 4th quarter played a key role in them losing to the Rams in the NFC Championship Game. As appalling as that missed PI call was, the Saints inability to put the Rams away in the early stages of the game while they had all of the momentum along with their dud of an OT drive that ended in a brutal INT that eventually led to Greg Zuerlein's game-winning FG deserves more of the blame for their latest postseason letdown.
The harsh reality is that any of these runs could be the last chance the Saints have of winning another Super Bowl before Drew Brees retires, which makes what occurred last January even more painful for Saints fans. Despite showing no signs of aging thus far, Brees, who turned 40 in January, has repeatedly said that he doesn't share Tom Brady's goal of playing until he's 45 and with each exit on his increasingly disappointing playoff resume, the nightmarish reality of a post-Brees Saints team inches closer. Clearly it would be a huge shock if Brees deteriorated immediately following a season in which he completed 74.4% of his passes and had an absurd 6:4 TD: INT ratio (9th best all time), but history has repeatedly showed us that falling off a cliff doesn't tend to be gradual or expected, so the possibility that the time has passed for this Saints regime to bring home another Lombardi remains a disheartening potential truth.
-Half of the most prolific running back duo in the game walked away from the Saints this offseason when Mark Ingram bolted to the Ravens in free agency. Obviously the remaining half of said duo, Alvin Kamara, is complete and explosive enough to turn into a bellcow for this squad. However, the Saints realized that giving Kamara a much larger workload would be a silly mistake that could really effect his longevity in this game and went out and signed another vet to share the backfield with him. The man tapped with stepping into Ingram's role as the thumping complement to Kamara's electric sideline-to-sideline playmaking is Latavius Murray.
Murray is about as ideal of a replacement for Ingram as you could ask for. Like his predecessor in NOLA, the 29-year old UCF product is a tough, powerful runner with a nose for breaking the pylon in redzone situations, decent enough receiving skills to be used a bit in the passing game and has ample experience (48 career starts) being a key contributor in the backfield. His lower usage (1,027/1,548 touches) compared to Ingram also serves as a passable trade-off for their notable discrepancy in YPC (4.1/4.5). This is the best situation in terms of running mate and offensive line that Murray has ever been in, so a career year in terms of TD's and YPC is certainly in play.
-There's no shortage of reasons why the Saints failing to capitalize on their championship window would be a soul-crushing letdown. This current roster features an arsenal of skill position talent (Kamara, Murray, Michael Thomas, Ted Ginn Jr., newly-signed tight end Jared Cook), has a solid offensive line that allows them to have a well-rounded attack and the sensational Brees could definitely use another ring to further solidify his legacy as an all time player at his position.
A big part of the reason why they've failed to even appear in another Super Bowl since their victory a decade ago has been their defensive struggles. Mickey Loomis had frequently undermined the prowess of their offense by putting a collection of sad stiffs on the field and the sidelines. Over the past couple of years, that problem has been eliminated as DC Dennis Allen and the likes of Marshon Lattimore, Marcus Williams and Sheldon Rankins have helped longtime defensive leader/unheralded star defensive end Cameron Jordan bring this group back to respectability.
Now last season was a bit of disappointment for this group, as they fell from 10th (20.4 points per game) to 14th in scoring defense (22.1 points per game). Rankins potentially being on the PUP list to start the year as he recovers from an Achilles tear is a tough blow, but there's still enough talent here for the Saints to possibly improve upon their rankings in 2018.
Their defensive line picked up a couple of nice depth pieces in Mario Edwards Jr. and Malcom Brown to work in alongside Jordan and David Onyemata while Rankins is out, this secondary has significant bounceback potential after a slightly down year from all their prominent young players save for Vonn Bell and even though it wasn't reflected in his sack total (4.5), Marcus Davenport showed enough promise during his rookie season to believe that a notable production bump could be on the horizon-which would make this already strong pass rush (49, tied for 5th in sacks) even more formidable. The contributions or lack thereof from this group is the X-factor in their continued pursuit of Lombardi and their play will be something worth closely monitoring as the season progresses.
Bottom Line:
As long as Drew Brees remains elite and this defense keeps opponents from scoring 68 points a game, the Saints are going to be a top threat to win the NFC.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2018 Record: 5-11 (4th in NFC South)
Head Coach: Bruce Arians (1st season)
Head Coach: Bruce Arians (1st season)
Notable Additions: DT Ndamukong Suh, OLB Shaq Barrett, WR Breshad Perriman
Notable Departures: DT Gerald McCoy, ILB Kwon Alexander, QB Ryan Fitzpatrick
-Following the 2017 season, Bruce Arians announced his retirement from coaching after 43 seasons in the college and pro ranks. After a year away which included a less than seamless transition to the broadcast booth, Arians is back on the sideline with many of the assistants he cherished during his days with the Cardinals (Todd Bowles, Harold Goodwin, Byron Leftwich, Larry Foote, Tom Moore, Mike Caldwell, Kevin Ross).
Of all the vacancies available, it's no surprise that he gravitated towards the Buccaneers job for his comeback. Inheriting an offense with this much god damn firepower has to be a dream scenario for the 67 year-old virtuoso who has oversaw his share of explosive offenses during his career.
While this offense was just fine under the guidance of Dirk Koetter and Todd Monken, they have a chance to hit a whole new level of lethal with Arians at the helm. Arians runs a system where the QB drops back, stands strong in the pocket and throws downfield strikes, which fits the Bucs current personnel perfectly. The top of their receiver depth chart (Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, O.J. Howard, Breshad Perriman) is full of vertical threats that have no problem going up to make contested catches and Jameis Winston's fearless/reckless gunslinger status makes him the perfect person to run this type of aggressive downfield offense.
A system like this being implemented is a win-win for all of the players and the front office guys that are trying to stay employed after hiring a new coach, but Winston should feel especially blessed that a scheme that was designed for QB's like him to thrive in was put in place the season before he hits free agency. Arians' arrival could end up landing him a long-term deal in Tampa and a lot more money than he would've earned following back-to-back inefficient seasons if he performs like he should.
-Honestly, the only thing that's not perfect about the Bucs' offense right now is their running game. As much as Arians loves to throw it, rushing the ball is also a key part of his scheme as evidenced by the insane workloads Rashard Mendenhall, Willie Parker and David Johnson were given while he was running the show. The problem is that the Bucs rushing game was horrifically ineffective last season (29th in the league in 2018 with a whopping 95.2 YDS per game) and they did nothing to change it in the offseason.
Does their offensive line deserve some blame for their woes in the running game? Sure. Ali Marpet is a stud guard that doesn't get nearly enough credit because of the stank emanating from his peers and Demar Dotson is a steady right tackle that displays legit dominance on occasion, but everybody else is pretty bad-especially left tackle Donovan Smith who somehow managed to land a 3-year extension this offseason. However, there are backs in the league right now (Melvin Gordon, Saquon Barkley, Joe Mixon) that have been highly productive behind lines that are just as bad, if not worse than this one.
The root of their ineffectiveness on the ground can be traced back to Peyton Barber and Ronald Jones. Barber is just your below average plug-and-play clown that can consistently fall forward for 3 yards and occasionally score a TD. He'd be a perfectly fine backup option, but he has absolutely no juice as a starter.
Barber might as well the unstoppable lovechild of Emmit Smith, Barry Sanders and Walter Payton when compared to Jones. Unlike the undrafted Barber, Jones had quite the pedigree in college and was expected to contribute right away when he was selected 38th overall in 2018. Instead, Jones struggled to the point where he was a healthy scratch for nearly half the season (he only dressed in 9 games) and ended up finishing his rookie season with a pathetic 77 scrimmage YDS and 1 TD on just 30 touches. How he struggled to earn playing time in a backfield with no depth or legitimate talent is completely beyond my comprehension. Arians might have some tricks up his sleeve to try and revitalize these duds, but he's going to have to pull off a series of miracles to make this rushing attack passable, let alone productive.
-Speaking of working miracles, Bowles is going to have to manufacture a few of his own to get this defense back on track. Part of the reason the Bucs offense led the league in passing YDS a year ago was because their defense was so wretched. Boasting a lowly 26th ranked pass D, 24th ranked run D and 31st ranked scoring defense (29.0 points allowed per game), they couldn't slow anybody down and that near universal ineptitude routinely took them out of games well before the 4th quarter started.
The road back to competency is naturally going to be a long one, but there's few coaches better qualified to take that challenge on than Bowles. He was the architect of a pair of top 7 scoring defenses during his last stint as Arians' DC with the Cardinals and his track record as a secondary coach with the Dolphins, Eagles and Cowboys before that where he aided in the development of several future Pro Bowlers including Vontae Davis, Reshad Jones and Terrence Newman is great.
As for this season, there's not many reasons to be optimistic. Their already weak pass rush got even worse with the release of Gerald McCoy and likely season-long absence of Jason Pierre-Paul following a car accident that left him with a neck fracture, the perpetually shaky Vernon Hargreaves is somehow still their top corner and they replaced the unreliable tackling of Kwon Alexander with the similarly unreliable (albeit much cheaper) tackling of Deon Bucannon.
Really the only possible sources of joy among this volatile group could come from a resurgent season from an angry Nduamkong Suh on his 2nd consecutive 1 year "prove it" deal, any of their young starters (Vita Vea, Justin Evans, Carlton Davis, rookie inside linebacker Devin White-who was picked 5th overall) flashing star potential and of course, the continued coverage/run-stuffing excellence of outside linebacker Lavonte David-whose decision to stick around in Tampa has provided a beacon of light even in the darkest of times. A breakout campaign from at least 1 of the young guys and a finish outside of the bottom 5 in scoring defenses would mark a nice start to Bowles' tenure here.
Bottom Line:
The well-established wizardry of Bruce Arians should help them improve from the 5-11 record they've posted in 2 consecutive seasons, but there's far too many holes on this defense and quality teams in this division to get overly excited about the Bucs in 2019.
-Following the 2017 season, Bruce Arians announced his retirement from coaching after 43 seasons in the college and pro ranks. After a year away which included a less than seamless transition to the broadcast booth, Arians is back on the sideline with many of the assistants he cherished during his days with the Cardinals (Todd Bowles, Harold Goodwin, Byron Leftwich, Larry Foote, Tom Moore, Mike Caldwell, Kevin Ross).
Of all the vacancies available, it's no surprise that he gravitated towards the Buccaneers job for his comeback. Inheriting an offense with this much god damn firepower has to be a dream scenario for the 67 year-old virtuoso who has oversaw his share of explosive offenses during his career.
While this offense was just fine under the guidance of Dirk Koetter and Todd Monken, they have a chance to hit a whole new level of lethal with Arians at the helm. Arians runs a system where the QB drops back, stands strong in the pocket and throws downfield strikes, which fits the Bucs current personnel perfectly. The top of their receiver depth chart (Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, O.J. Howard, Breshad Perriman) is full of vertical threats that have no problem going up to make contested catches and Jameis Winston's fearless/reckless gunslinger status makes him the perfect person to run this type of aggressive downfield offense.
A system like this being implemented is a win-win for all of the players and the front office guys that are trying to stay employed after hiring a new coach, but Winston should feel especially blessed that a scheme that was designed for QB's like him to thrive in was put in place the season before he hits free agency. Arians' arrival could end up landing him a long-term deal in Tampa and a lot more money than he would've earned following back-to-back inefficient seasons if he performs like he should.
-Honestly, the only thing that's not perfect about the Bucs' offense right now is their running game. As much as Arians loves to throw it, rushing the ball is also a key part of his scheme as evidenced by the insane workloads Rashard Mendenhall, Willie Parker and David Johnson were given while he was running the show. The problem is that the Bucs rushing game was horrifically ineffective last season (29th in the league in 2018 with a whopping 95.2 YDS per game) and they did nothing to change it in the offseason.
Does their offensive line deserve some blame for their woes in the running game? Sure. Ali Marpet is a stud guard that doesn't get nearly enough credit because of the stank emanating from his peers and Demar Dotson is a steady right tackle that displays legit dominance on occasion, but everybody else is pretty bad-especially left tackle Donovan Smith who somehow managed to land a 3-year extension this offseason. However, there are backs in the league right now (Melvin Gordon, Saquon Barkley, Joe Mixon) that have been highly productive behind lines that are just as bad, if not worse than this one.
The root of their ineffectiveness on the ground can be traced back to Peyton Barber and Ronald Jones. Barber is just your below average plug-and-play clown that can consistently fall forward for 3 yards and occasionally score a TD. He'd be a perfectly fine backup option, but he has absolutely no juice as a starter.
Barber might as well the unstoppable lovechild of Emmit Smith, Barry Sanders and Walter Payton when compared to Jones. Unlike the undrafted Barber, Jones had quite the pedigree in college and was expected to contribute right away when he was selected 38th overall in 2018. Instead, Jones struggled to the point where he was a healthy scratch for nearly half the season (he only dressed in 9 games) and ended up finishing his rookie season with a pathetic 77 scrimmage YDS and 1 TD on just 30 touches. How he struggled to earn playing time in a backfield with no depth or legitimate talent is completely beyond my comprehension. Arians might have some tricks up his sleeve to try and revitalize these duds, but he's going to have to pull off a series of miracles to make this rushing attack passable, let alone productive.
-Speaking of working miracles, Bowles is going to have to manufacture a few of his own to get this defense back on track. Part of the reason the Bucs offense led the league in passing YDS a year ago was because their defense was so wretched. Boasting a lowly 26th ranked pass D, 24th ranked run D and 31st ranked scoring defense (29.0 points allowed per game), they couldn't slow anybody down and that near universal ineptitude routinely took them out of games well before the 4th quarter started.
The road back to competency is naturally going to be a long one, but there's few coaches better qualified to take that challenge on than Bowles. He was the architect of a pair of top 7 scoring defenses during his last stint as Arians' DC with the Cardinals and his track record as a secondary coach with the Dolphins, Eagles and Cowboys before that where he aided in the development of several future Pro Bowlers including Vontae Davis, Reshad Jones and Terrence Newman is great.
As for this season, there's not many reasons to be optimistic. Their already weak pass rush got even worse with the release of Gerald McCoy and likely season-long absence of Jason Pierre-Paul following a car accident that left him with a neck fracture, the perpetually shaky Vernon Hargreaves is somehow still their top corner and they replaced the unreliable tackling of Kwon Alexander with the similarly unreliable (albeit much cheaper) tackling of Deon Bucannon.
Really the only possible sources of joy among this volatile group could come from a resurgent season from an angry Nduamkong Suh on his 2nd consecutive 1 year "prove it" deal, any of their young starters (Vita Vea, Justin Evans, Carlton Davis, rookie inside linebacker Devin White-who was picked 5th overall) flashing star potential and of course, the continued coverage/run-stuffing excellence of outside linebacker Lavonte David-whose decision to stick around in Tampa has provided a beacon of light even in the darkest of times. A breakout campaign from at least 1 of the young guys and a finish outside of the bottom 5 in scoring defenses would mark a nice start to Bowles' tenure here.
Bottom Line:
The well-established wizardry of Bruce Arians should help them improve from the 5-11 record they've posted in 2 consecutive seasons, but there's far too many holes on this defense and quality teams in this division to get overly excited about the Bucs in 2019.
Projected Standings:
1.New Orleans Saints (11-5)
2.Atlanta Falcons (10-6)
3.Carolina Panthers (8-8)
4.Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-9)
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