Thursday, February 5, 2026

Kevin James Ranked

Welcome to "Ranked", a weekly series where I rank a franchise or filmography from worst to best and hand out assorted related superlatives. This week, I'm profiling the work of Kevin James-whose latest project "Solo Mio" releases in theaters today. 

Kevin James' Filmography Ranked:

16.Zookeeper (D)

15.The Dilemma (D+) 

14.I Now Pronounce You Chuck and Larry (C-)

13.Guns Up (C)

12.Hubie Halloween (C)

11.Home Team (C)

10.Pixels (C)

9.Paul Blart: Mall Cop (C)

8.Grown Ups 2 (C)

7.Hitch (C+)

6.Hotel Transylvania 2 (B-) 

5.Hotel Transylvania (B-) 

4.Grown Ups (B-)

3.Here Comes the Boom (B)

2.50 First Dates (B)

1.Becky (B)

Top Dog: Becky (2020)

One of the biggest gems that emerged from the peak of the COVID lockdown where most of the small number of movies being released were indie genre movies, Becky is a very fun B-home invasion thriller that really relishes in its absurd nastiness. Lulu Wilson makes for a great teenage antihero, James does well going against type as a Nazi gang leader who just broke out of jail and the bursts of splattery gore hit really hard.

Bottom Feeder: Zookeeper (2011)

Generally speaking, I find James to be an affable screen presence who can lift up even the shakiest material he's handed. Zookeeper is one of the only times in his career where I felt that wasn't the case. James' answer to Doctor Dolittle is the epitome of 2000/2010's kids movie trash where the jokes are so consistently lame that the entire affair becomes obnoxious to the point where the end credits starting to roll feel like the first rays of sun hitting your face after spending a couple of hours locked up in a holding cell.

Most Underrated: Here Comes the Boom (2012)

I have a vivid memory of seeing Here Comes the Boom with a friend on opening weekend because the showing of Argo we had intended to go to was sold out and both of us being shocked by how much we enjoyed it. James shook off the brutal 1-2 punch of The Dilemma and Zookeeper to successfully apply his likeable everyman persona to a genuinely rousing, well-crafted underdog sports dramedy about a biology teacher (James) who takes on a side gig as an MMA fighter with the hopes of making enough money to save his school's music program. 

Most Overrated: Hitch (2005)

Perhaps I have an inflated belief of how well-liked Hitch is due to me being a teenager when it was released and having to spend so much time around people gushing about it. By the time I finally saw it in my late 20's, I was a little perplexed as to how it became so popular. While it's a completely inoffensive romcom anchored by a magnetic performance from Will Smith, I just didn't find to be overly funny or charming and the chemistry between Smith and Eva Mendes isn't really there. 

Wednesday, February 4, 2026

2025 NFL Awards+All-Pro Teams and Pro Football Hall of Fame Class of 2026 Predictions

MVP: Matthew Stafford (Rams)

During the summer, there were concerns that the 37-year-old Stafford would be hindered by a lingering back injury that caused his reps to be capped during training camp. He made everybody that doubted his ability to stay healthy and play at a high level look like idiots as he ended up having the best season of his 17-year career in 2025. He led the league in passing YDS (4,707) and TD's (46) while finishing second in QBR (109.2) behind likely MVP runner-up Drake Maye as the Rams had their best season since winning the Super Bowl in 2021. Best of all for Stafford, this season will further solidify his case for making the Hall of Fame-which has been and will remain a spirited debate topic as his career winds down or possibly even ends following this magical season.

Honorable Mentions: Drake Maye (Patriots), Trevor Lawrence (Jaguars), Justin Herbert (Chargers)

Offensive Player of the Year: Jaxson Smith-Njigba (Seahawks)

There's one man above all that Sam Darnold and Klint Kubiak can thank for their profiles being raised around the league with the Seahawks stellar offensive play in 2025 and his name is Jaxson Smith-Njigba. Every team that played the Seahawks this season knew they were going to feed JSN (Cooper Kupp and A.J. Barner were the next leading receivers on the team and they finished the season with lines of 47/593/2 and 52/519/6 respectively) and threw everything they had into stopping them. Despite these valiant efforts, he still killed them nearly every week-hauling in a whopping 119 receptions for a league-high 1,793 YDS and 10 TD's. Zooming in further on these numbers only make them more impressive as he posted 100+ YDS in 9 games and only had 1 game all season where had below 70 YDS (Week 13 against the Vikings-where he nabbed just 2 receptions for 23 YDS). Any conversation surrounding the best WR's in the league this offseason that doesn't include JSN don't deserve to be taken seriously. 

Honorable Mentions: Bijan Robinson (Falcons), Puka Nacua (Rams), Trey McBride (Cardinals)

Defensive Player of the Year: Myles Garrett (Browns)

When the league shifted to a 17-game schedule in 2021, it was inevitable that Michael Strahan's single season sack record of 22.5 that was set back in 2001 was going to fall. In the final week of the 2025 season, it finally did and to the surprise of very few, Myles Garrett was the man that did it. Playing on yet another miserably bad Browns team buried just how locked in Garrett was this season as he shattered his new career highs across the board by logging 23 sacks, 33 TFL's and 39 QB hits all while facing increased attention from opponents as the only real threat on a Browns front that otherwise struggled to rush the passer (the next three players on their list of team sack leaders combined for just 16 total). Someday we'll truly appreciate just how great Garrett was, but for now, we'll just keep mourning the fact that he's stuck in football purgatory with seemingly no way out.   

Honorable Mentions: Cameron Heyward (Steelers), Will Anderson Jr. (Texans), Jack Campbell (Lions)

Offensive Rookie of the Year: Tetairoa McMillan (Panthers)

McMillan ended up doing enough in the latter stages of the season to fend off the likes of Colston Loveland, Emeka Egbuka and Tyler Shough for this honor. After battling some inconsistency out of the gate, the 1st round pick out of Arizona emerged as the reliable WR1 the Panthers desperately needed around mid-October and ended up becoming the only rookie to clear 1,000 YDS receiving this season in dramatic fashion when he reeled in a 40-YD reception from Bryce Young in the 4th quarter of their Week 18 contest with the Bucs. As long as his rapport with Young continues to improve, McMillan should be even better in 2026. 

Honorable Mentions: Colston Loveland (Bears), Tyler Shough (Saints), Emeka Egbuka (Buccaneers)

Defensive Rookie of the Year: Carson Schwesinger (Browns)

Beyond Myles Garrett, the biggest bright spot of the Browns flawed but frisky defense may've been their rookie inside linebacker out of UCLA. Schwesinger quickly established himself as a sideline-to-sideline impact player-registering 156 combined tackles, 2.5 sacks, 9 QB hits and 3 passes defensed in 16 games. With Jim Schwartz likely not returning as DC after being passed over for their head coaching gig, it'll be interesting to see if Schwesinger can adapt to a different system that is potentially less aggressive than the one he thrived in this year.

Honorable Mentions: Xavier Watts (Falcons), Jihaad Campbell (Eagles), Malaki Starks (Ravens)

Coach of the Year: Kyle Shanahan (49ers)

No disrespect to the remarkable turnaround efforts that Liam Coen, Ben Johnson and Mike Vrabel led this season, but only one coach in the league made the playoffs and had a chance at getting the top seed in the hypercompetitive NFC after half of their roster died during the season. Shanahan's ability to deal with a cartoonishly high volume of injuries of the short-term, long-term and season-ending variety and field a team that was not only competitive but thrived for the bulk of the season is the kind of brilliant coaching that this award is designed to honor. 

Honorable Mentions: Liam Coen (Jaguars), Ben Johnson (Bears), Mike Vrabel (Patriots)

Comeback Player of the Year: Aidan Hutchinson (Lions)

The real award tomorrow night is probably going to go to Dak Prescott and that's completely fair. He quietly put together one of the best seasons of his career this season for a decent Cowboys team who was let down by their league-worst defense and it's especially impressive that he pulled this off after having a poor, injury-shortened season in 2024. I just happened to be more impressed with the play of Hutchinson-who picked up right where he left off when he went down with a broken leg 5 games into what was shaping up to be a dominant 2024 campaign by earning his first career All-Pro selection after posting 14.5 sacks, 14 TFL's, 35 QB hits, 4 forced fumbles, a fumble recovery and an INT.

Honorable Mentions: Dak Prescott (Cowboys), Christian McCaffery (49ers), Stefon Diggs (Patriots)

All-Pro Teams:

Quarterback

1st team: Matthew Stafford (Rams)

2nd team: Drake Maye (Patriots)

Running Back

1st team: Bijan Robinson (Falcons)

2nd team: James Cook (Bills)

Wide Receiver

1st team: Jaxon Smith-Njigba (Seahawks), Puka Nacua (Rams)

2nd team: Amon-Ra St. Brown (Lions), Ja'Marr Chase (Bengals)

Tight End

1st team: Trey McBride (Cardinals)

2nd team: Kyle Pitts (Falcons)

Tackle

1st team: Garett Bolles (Broncos), Penei Sewell (Lions)

2nd team: Tristan Wirfs (Buccaneers), Darnell Wright (Bears)

Guard

1st team: Joe Thuney (Bears), Quinn Meinerz (Broncos)

2nd team: Quenton Nelson (Colts), Chris Lindstrom (Falcons)

Center

1st team: Creed Humphrey (Chiefs)

2nd team: Aaron Brewer (Dolphins)

Edge Rusher

1st team: Myles Garrett (Browns), Will Anderson Jr. (Texans)

2nd team: Micah Parsons (Packers), Aidan Hutchinson (Lions)

Defensive Tackle

1st team: Cameron Heyward (Steelers), Jeffrey Simmons (Titans)

2nd team: Leonard Williams (Seahawks), Travis Jones (Ravens)

Inside Linebacker

1st team: Jack Campbell (Lions), Demario Davis (Saints)

2nd team: Devin Lloyd (Jaguars), Zack Baun (Eagles)

Cornerback

1st team: Devon Witherspoon (Seahawks), Mike Jackson (Panthers)

2nd team: Cooper DeJean (Eagles), Quinyon Mitchell (Eagles)

Safety

1st team: Kyle Hamilton (Ravens), Derwin James (Chargers)

2nd team: Jalen Pitre (Texans), Kevin Byard (Bears)

Kicker

1st team: Will Reichard (Vikings)

2nd team: Brandon Aubrey (Cowboys)

Punter

1st team: Jordan Stout (Ravens)

2nd team: Daniel Whelan (Packers)

Return Specialists:

1st team: Ray Davis (Bills), Marcus Jones (Patriots)

2nd team: Isaiah Williams (Jets), Chimere Dike (Titans)

Special Teamer:

1st team: Devon Key (Broncos)

2nd team: Carson Bruener (Steelers)

Long Snapper:

1st team: Rex Sunahara (Browns)

2nd team: Ross Matiscik (Jaguars)

Pro Football Hall of Fame Class of 2026 Predictions:

Willie Anderson, tackle (Team: Cincinnati Bengals)

Drew Brees, quarterback (Teams: San Diego Chargers, New Orleans Saints)

Roger Craig, running (Teams: San Francisco 49ers, Los Angeles Raiders, Minnesota Vikings)

L.C. Greenwood, defensive end (Team: Pittsburgh Steelers)

Torry Holt, wide receiver (Teams: St. Louis Rams, Jacksonville Jaguars)

Luke Kuechly, inside linebacker (Team: Carolina Panthers) 

Darren Woodson, safety (Team: Dallas Cowboys)

Who I'd Vote for If I Had a Ballot: 

Drew Brees

Torry Holt

Luke Kuechly

Kevin Williams, defensive tackle (Teams: Minnesota Vikings, Seattle Seahawks, New Orleans Saints)

Marshal Yanda, guard (Team: Baltimore Ravens)

Monday, February 2, 2026

Movie Review: Send Help


Sam Raimi has built such an incredible career that many people that were born during the last 35 years primarily associate him with superhero movies. As ridiculous or blasphemous as that will sound to the hardcore Rami afficionados out there, take a moment to consider that 2009's Drag Me to Hell is the only proper horror movie he's made this century and his last entry in the Evil Dead franchise (Army of Darkness) turns 33 years old later this month. After ending his nearly decade-long reprieve from directing features following the shaky commercial performance/reception of Oz The Great and Powerful to helm Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness in 2022, Raimi has finally returned to his comedy horror roots with Send Help and provided the uninitiated with a taste of the signature style that made him a cult hero in genre circles back in the 80's.

In the opening moments of Send Help, the viewer is introduced to Linda Liddle (Rachel McAdams). Linda is a meek fuddy duddy who works in the strategy and planning department of an unnamed major financial management corporation and after years of grinding away in the shadows without ever receiving any meaningful acknowledgement for her hard work, appears set to receive a promotion to vice president once the new CEO Bradley Preston (Dylan O'Brien) officially takes over for his late father (Bruce Campbell, who appears strictly via photographic cameos). On his first day on the job, Bradley quickly becomes repulsed by Linda's pathetic "bird lady" demeanor and hands the promotion to his golfing buddy Donovan (Xavier Samuel) instead despite him being considerably less experienced than Linda. During the same meeting, Bradley informs Linda that he doesn't believe she provides much value to their operation and challenges her to prove her worth to him by traveling with the company to Bangkok for a meeting about a prospective merger. 

A week later, the company's private plane crashes somewhere in the vicinity of Thailand and the sole survivors of the wreck are Linda and Bradley. While Linda made it to the shore of an unoccupied island pretty much unscathed, Bradley sustained wounds and injuries to his legs that were severe enough to render him unable to walk without assistance. Relying on Linda-who has honed a wide set of survival skills thanks to her desire to compete on Survivor-to survive, Bradley has to discount all of his instincts telling him to boss Linda around as she is quite literally the only reason he's still alive after losing consciousness following the crash and having the tide carry him to the beach that Linda was able to swim to. As Bradley regains his strength, a vicious power struggle ensues between the two that threatens to kill them both before they even have a chance to be rescued. 

Raimi really couldn't have picked a more ideal project to make his return to horror/thrillers on than Send Help. While I'm sure he considered taking on other projects, veteran screenwriting duo Damien Shannon and Mark Swift (Freddy vs. Jason, the 2009 remake of Friday the 13th) handed him such a rich canvas to work his sicko magic on that it's easy to see why he dove headfirst into this opportunity. The constant evolution of the dynamic between Linda and Bradley and the twists that help shift them are so quintessentially Raimi that it's kind of hard to believe that he didn't write the film himself. There's such a perverse, playful glee behind every creative choice in this film and it all culminates in a twisted conclusion that had me cackling in my seat as the credits began to roll. Raimi had been away from the genre for so long that there was inevitably going to be questions about whether or he could still deliver the goods, so it was a huge relief to discover that the maestro of deranged horror comedies has retained his ability to conduct the hell out of his orchestra at the age of 66.

As delightful as it is to see Rami deploy his bag of tricks again, the top highlight of Send Help is watching McAdams and O'Brien spar with each other. This is the kind of showcase that these two versatile, magnetic and perpetually underrated talents have deserved for ages. The funhouse environment that Raimi famously creates on his sets paired with the nature of the story grants them the freedom to truly play as actors and the two of them settle into such a finely tuned rhythm of manipulation, combativeness and sassiness as their characters go to great lengths to fight for control of their little of horrific island paradise that is just magic to watch. Having a movie that almost entirely hinges on the shoulders of two actors being able to portray a constantly shifting power dynamic is a risky bet, but when those actors are as locked into their own performances and getting on the same page as their scene partner as the lead duo of Send Help is, that gamble pays off big time.

Send Help is one hell of a way to cap off by far the strongest January for cinema that we've had this decade. If you have any interest in seeing this, I urge to you check it out in theaters ASAP. It's a movie that really pops with a crowd and original stories like this really need support during this era where studios are often hesitant to greenlit things that aren't established IP. 

Grade: B+

Thursday, January 29, 2026

Ric Roman Waugh Ranked

Welcome to "Ranked", a weekly series where I rank a franchise or filmography from worst to best and hand out assorted related superlatives. This week, I'm profiling the work of Ric Roman Waugh-whose latest project "Shelter" opens in theaters today. 

Ric Roman Waugh's Filmography Ranked:

7.Greenland 2: Migration (B-)

6.Angel Has Fallen (B-)

5.Kandahar (B)

4.Snitch (B)

3.Greenland (B)

2.Shot Caller (B)

1.Felon (B)

Top Dog: Felon (2008)

While Waugh has maintained a pretty solid quality standard over the past 20 years or so, I'm inclined to give his breakout feature Felon a slight edge over Shot Caller, Greenland and Snitch for this title. Felon is a really solid prison drama about a family man (Stephen Dorff) who loses sight of who he is after being sent to a corrupt, violent prison after receiving a questionable sentence for involuntarily manslaughter after accidently killing an armed robber with a baseball bat on his property that somehow got buried as a direct-to-video title in 2008 and it's a testament to the power of the video store/cable culture of that era that it went onto to find an audience. 

Bottom Feeder: Greenland 2: Migration (2026)

Greenland marked the rare disaster movie that focused more on the human element of an apocalyptic weather event than the event itself. The sequel Greenland 2: Migration abandons that storytelling philosophy to an extent in an effort to up the ante and it leads to an inferior product. While I'm not going to say that it completely stinks since the significant increase in weather events leads to some tense sequences, these setpieces just happen to come at the cost of stripping away what made its predecessor stand out from other movies in the genre. 

Most Underrated: Shot Caller (2017)

Shot Caller is pretty much a carbon copy of Felon right down to the slipping through the cracks of the Hollywood distribution machine aspect. Still, it's a compelling, gritty movie about how prison can make monsters of decent people and Nikolaj Coster-Waldau does really great work in the lead role of Jacob Harlon-who pleads guilty to a DUI and quickly gets caught up in the pervasive gang culture in the Los Angeles-area prison he was sentenced to. 

Most Overrated: None

Despite directing movies for about 25 years now, Waugh has never made anything that has generated overly passionate reactions on either end of the spectrum. Some people would call him a "journeyman" because of this, but I'd call him a steady hand who can be counted onto to do solid work across a number of genres. 

Tuesday, January 27, 2026

Most Frequently Played Movie Trailers of 2025

Full disclosure: I had no intention of ever making this public but my ability to write what I intended today is no longer feasible for reasons that are of no interest or importance to anyone who happens to be reading this.  After a couple of years of seeing people online bitching incessantly about the same trailers playing in front of every movie, I decided to start logging every trailer I saw in theaters back in 2024 to see exactly how often trailers were being played. Today, I'm going to share with you a list of trailers for movies released in 2025 that I saw the most. Here's a few notes that will provide some context to what you're about to see here:

-The criteria for inclusion here was anything that I saw at least 10 times,

-On average, I see somewhere between 2 and 3 movies per week, and this data set was collected from over 100 showings between the first half of 2024 when the first trailers for 2025 titles dropped and this month when the last of the year-end releases began playing in my area.  

-With a lone exception (shoutout divine indie palace CinemaSalem), all of these trailers played in front of films that were seen at a handful of different AMC locations around the greater Boston area.

-While I'm more often than not in my seat before the trailers begin, I do arrive late on occasion and that definitely impacted these numbers to a minimal degree. 

What does the data reveal? Well, there are indeed some trailers that are really getting spammed but for 2025 at least, a single film stood well above the rest of the pack (If you went to the movies with any degree of regularity last year, you probably will not be surprised by what the title in question is). Other than that, the data is completely up to your own interpretation. I've personally found that the complaining about the repetition of trailers is pretty overblown, but to be fair, I'm also someone who doesn't really care about seeing a trailer over and over when I go to the theater. Without further ado, let's break down this sweet sweet data.    
Most Frequently Played Movie Trailers of 2025:
(Final note: Titles are sorted by release date)
25: Mission-Impossible: The Final Reckoning
18: The Roses
17: Wolf Man, 28 Years Later, M3GAN 2.0
16: Wicked: For Good, Anaconda
15: Captain America: Brave New World, Thunderbolts*, The Naked Gun, Him, Roofman, The Housemaid
14: The Amateur
13: Novocaine, A Big Bold Beautiful Journey
12: Drop, Jurassic World Rebirth, Predator Badlands
11: I Know What You Did Last Summer, One Battle After Another, The Running Man, Ella McCay 
10: Until Dawn, Ballerina, Caught Stealing, Good Fortune

Just Missed the Cut (aka The 9-Times Club): The Monkey, Sinners, Black Phone 2, Hamnet, The SpongeBob Movie: Search for SquarePants, Is This Thing On? 

This will probably be the only time I ever post something like this, so if you enjoyed it, I'm glad that my OCD, curiosity and contempt for social media hot takes could provide with a little bit of entertainment during these trying times.

Monday, January 26, 2026

Top 10 Movie Action Sequences of 2025

Honorable Mentions:

Silver Surfer Chases The Fantastic Four Through Space-The Fantastic Four: First Steps

 

Ice Club Fight-Ballerina

 

Disgruntled Assassin vs. Triads-Fight or Flight

The Team Meets for the First Time-Thunderbolts*

Amusement Park Chaos-Nobody 2


10.Glass Wolverine-Novocaine

A big part of Novocaine's appeal comes from the protagonist Nathan Caine (Jack Quaid) having a disorder that makes him unable to feel pain and the film crafting action sequences that take full advantage of Caine's ability to get beat to shit without fully realizing just how hurt he is. While the other fight scenes in the film have more elaborate choreography, there's a particularly gruesome, bone-crunching edge to this one that made it my favorite of the film's many visceral bursts of action. 

9.Safe House Ambush-Heads of State


How about some more Jack Quaid to kick off this countdown? Ilya Naishuller (Hardcore Henry, Nobody) got called up to the PG-13 streaming blockbuster league with Heads of State and made it one of the rare entries in this frowned upon subsection of Hollywood to be a legit good time. Outside of reigniting the tremendous adversarial chemistry that Idris Elba and John Cena built up in The Suicide Squad, the stylized, high energy action sequences like this key setpiece from the second act of the film were the biggest reason why Heads of State succeeded where many others in this space have failed.

8.Kitchen Fight-Love Hurts

As the president of the Love Hurts Fan Club, I'm obligated to feature a scene from it here. The zany, playful choreography here is a throwback to the stuff that Jackie Chan was doing when he first started making movies in English during the mid-to-late 90's and it was refreshing to see this brand of goofy fighting on screen in 2025. 

7.Mister Terrific Introduces Himself to Lex Luthor's Goon Squad-Superman


Just a classic James Gunn action sequence where the CGI/practical elements are brought together seamlessly and a scene-stealing side character gets to wail on a bunch of faceless goons to a cool song. 

6.Average Duck Boat Tour Disturbance -Nobody 2

 

Fair or not, Nobody 2 had the unenviable task of trying to match or top the incredible fight sequences from the first film. Despite ultimately failing to reach the peaks of its predecessor, it's still a really fun movie full of sick action. This particularly goofy sequence makes really great use of its unique setting and the shots of chaos breaking out in the background while the people in the front of the boat are fully locked into the duck boat tour made me laugh pretty hard.

5.All Hell Breaks Loose-Diablo

Diablo appears to blow most of its low budget on this sequence and its big final set piece set at an abandoned factory. If this was indeed the case, it was 100% worth it. What makes me prefer this scene from pretty early on in the film to the finale is the beautifully executed mayhem that organically leads to into the first of the few fights that take place between martial arts legends Scott Adkins and Marko Zaror during Diablo's lethally efficient 91-minute runtime.  

4.Driving Shootout Through the Streets of Nice-Den of Thieves 2: Pantera

Having the big action payoff of Den of Thieves 2: Pantera be an unbearably tense extended chase/shootout through the winding tunnels and mountainsides of Nice, France (or more accurately, Spain's Canary Islands doubling as Nice) is one of the many reasons these movies rip so hard.

3.Tom Cruise Risks His Life for the Movies Part 123-Mission-Impossible: The Final Reckoning

This would've been a spot higher if it had been the first time Tom Cruise had hung from the side of an airplane in a Mission-Impossible movie. Despite its similarity to a famous stunt from Rogue Nation, it remains an exhilarating sequence that helps The Final Reckoning atone for the sins of its first act in the final one. 

2.Grenade Fight-Ballerina


Watching Ana de Armas survive an ambush at an arms dealer's hideout by finding a box of grenades in a locked room was the very moment that I knew that Chad Stahelski had come in and saved Ballerina from being the first movie in the John Wick universe to miss the mark. 

1.Flamethrower Fight-Ballerina


Nothing else I watched in 2025 had an action scene that came anywhere close to matching this one. The John Wick franchise just continues to find ways to pull off creative fight scenes full of unreal stuntwork and pristine editing and this insane climactic fight with FUCKING FLAMETHROWERS is every bit as good as the finest moments from the main franchise. 

Sunday, January 25, 2026

NFL Conference Championship Predictions

 Last Week: 3-1 (Correct: Seahawks, Patriots, Rams Incorrect: Bills)

Overall Playoff Record: 7-3

New England Patriots Over Denver Broncos:

Before I talk about this game, I have to put into writing that the Broncos made me eat shit with their performance last week. They took advantage of the many mistakes the Bills made, and Bo Nix shook off of a very rough second half to deliver when his team needed him the most during the end of the 4th quarter/overtime to lead the Broncos to a gutsy win that granted them the opportunity to return to the AFC Championship Game for the first time since 2015. 

Moving on today's game, Nix being sidelined with a broken ankle changes the complexion of this game entirely. Nix's mobility is the key to the entire Broncos offense and without him under center, their system becomes much more predictable and their RB's and pass-catchers beyond Courtland Sutton aren't strong enough to have faith in their ability to overcome the loss of their second year signalcaller's improvisational gifts. On top of this, Nix's backup Jarrett Stidham has not taken a meaningful snap since the end of the 2023 season and only has 4 career starts during his 7-year NFL career. Nobody in NFL history has started a Conference Championship with this little game action under their belt and asking somebody this green to come off the bench and lead you to a Super Bowl is a huge ask, especially against a defense that has been stifling against both the run and pass in each of their playoff games thus far. 

Any path to a Broncos victory will most likely have to be through their defense once again being able to take advantage of their opponent's miscues/offensive line woes (which is feasible as the Patriots have turned the ball over a whopping five times and allowed 10 sacks over the past two games) and/or the Patriots once again succumbing to the horrors of Mile High (they've lost all four of their previous playoff games in franchise history). To put it more succinctly, I just don't think the Broncos in a good position to win today given the huge matchup disadvantages they're being handed with their offense going against the Pats defense. 

Seattle Seahawks over Los Angeles Rams:

Even after the shellacking they handed the 49ers at home last week, having faith in the Seahawks isn't an easy to thing to do right now. Sam Darnold wasn't exactly rolling against the 49ers (12/17, 124 YDS, 1 TD), their rushing attack will now fall squarely on the shoulders of Kenneth Walker III as Zach Charbonnet suffered a torn ACL last week and it feels like they need things that can't be relied upon to happen every week like special teams or defensive scores to really gain control of a game. If a shootout situation emerges like it did during their last meeting back in Week 16, I don't think the 'Hawks will be able to win this time around. 

The sole reason I'm picking the Seahawks here is that I don't think the Rams offense has been particularly strong over the past two weeks. Save for a few drives, they had a very hard time moving the ball against a pretty terrible Bears defense. Going against a Seahawks team that shares Bears DC Dennis Allen's love of throwing out weird blitz looks but doesn't share Allen's group inability to stop the run would be a nightmare scenario for the Rams team we've seen over the past couple of weeks. If anybody can get back on track after a pair of down weeks, it's Stafford, Sean McVay, Puka Nacua and the deeply talented Rams offense- I just can't in good conscience pick them to win a game in which they're squaring off with the best defense by far they've played in the playoffs after seeing what they've done in the playoffs up to this point.