Fall festival season has all but officially concluded as the New York Film Festival enters its final stretch tonight with the US premiere of Steve McQueen's Apple-backed WWII biopic Blitz. This of course means it's time to embark on a silly little annual tradition in these parts: Trying to guess who and what will be nominated for Oscars at a juncture of the calendar where it's neither necessary nor wise to do so! Making this exercise even more reckless this year is the current lack of clear frontrunners in damn near every category, which is an exceptionally rare thing to see roughly a month after the big 3 fests (Venice, Telluride, Toronto) have concluded. This lack of early favorites across the board won't do anything to disrupt this piece. In fact, it only makes this whole goofy exercise more fun.
As always given how far out we are from the start of the voting process, it needs to be noted that there are several major titles including Gladiator II, Wicked, A Complete Unknown, Nosferatu, Here and Juror #2 that have yet to publicly screen in their final form and the races have the potential to be widely impacted once they debut. Now with that note out of the way, here are my way too early Oscar predictions for every category excluding Best Original Song, Best Animated Short, Best Documentary Short and Best Live Action Short.
*Indicates the predicted winner
Best Picture:
Anora*
Blitz
The Brutalist
Conclave
Dune: Part Two
Emilia Perez
Gladiator II
Nickel Boys
A Real Pain
Sing Sing
Best Director:
Jacques Audiard, Emilia Perez
Sean Baker, Anora*
Brady Corbet, The Brutalist
Steve McQueen, Blitz
Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two
Best Actor:
Adrien Brody, The Brutalist
Daniel Craig, Queer
Colman Domingo, Sing Sing
Ralph Fiennes, Conclave*
Paul Mescal, Gladiator II
Best Actress:
Karla Sofia Gascon, Emilia Perez
Angelina Jolie, Maria
Nicole Kidman, Babygirl
Mikey Madison, Anora*
Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun
Best Supporting Actor:
Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain*
Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing
Guy Pearce, The Brutalist
Stanley Tucci, Conclave
Denzel Washington, Gladiator II
Best Supporting Actress:
Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson
Selena Gomez, Emilia Perez
Felicity Jones, The Brutalist
Zoe Saldana, Emilia Perez*
Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys
Best Original Screenplay:
Anora*
Blitz
The Brutalist
A Real Pain
The Seed of the Sacred Fig
Best Adapted Screenplay:
Conclave*
Emilia Perez
Nickel Boys
The Room Next Door
Sing Sing
Best Animated Feature:
Flow
Inside Out 2
Memoir of a Snail
Wallace and Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
The Wild Robot*
Best Documentary Feature:
Black Box Diaries
Daughters
The Remarkable Life of Ibelin
Sugarcane*
Will & Harper
Best International Feature:
Emilia Perez*
The Girl with the Needle
Grand Tour
I'm Still Here
The Seed of the Sacred Fig
Best Cinematography:
Lol Crawley, The Brutalist*
Greig Fraser, Dune: Part Two
Jomo Fray, Nickel Boys
Paul Guilhaume, Emilia Perez
Edward Lachman, Maria
Best Film Editing:
Sean Baker, Anora
Nick Emerson, Conclave
David Jancso, The Brutalist
Peter Sciberras, Blitz
Joe Walker, Dune: Part Two*
Best Costume Design:
Blitz
Dune: Part Two
Gladiator II
Maria
Wicked*
Best Makeup and Hairstyling:
Beetlejuice Beetlejuice
Dune: Part Two*
Nosferatu
The Substance
Wicked
Best Production Design:
Blitz
The Brutalist
Dune: Part Two
Gladiator II*
Wicked
Best Score:
The Brutalist
Conclave*
Emilia Perez
Saturday Night
The Wild Robot
Best Sound:
Blitz
Dune: Part Two*
Emilia Perez
Gladiator II
Twisters
Best Visual Effects:
Dune: Part Two*
Gladiator II
Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes
Mufasa: The Lion King
Twisters
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