Way Too Early Oscar Predictions: 2024 Edition

Fall festival season has all but officially concluded as the New York Film Festival enters its final stretch tonight with the US premiere of Steve McQueen's Apple-backed WWII biopic Blitz. This of course means it's time to embark on a silly little annual tradition in these parts: Trying to guess who and what will be nominated for Oscars at a juncture of the calendar where it's neither necessary nor wise to do so! Making this exercise even more reckless this year is the current lack of clear frontrunners in damn near every category, which is an exceptionally rare thing to see roughly a month after the big 3 fests (Venice, Telluride, Toronto) have concluded. This lack of early favorites across the board won't do anything to disrupt this piece. In fact, it only makes this whole goofy exercise more fun.       

As always given how far out we are from the start of the voting process, it needs to be noted that there are several major titles including Gladiator II, Wicked, A Complete Unknown, Nosferatu, Here and Juror #2 that have yet to publicly screen in their final form and the races have the potential to be widely impacted once they debut. Now with that note out of the way, here are my way too early Oscar predictions for every category excluding Best Original Song, Best Animated Short, Best Documentary Short and Best Live Action Short. 

*Indicates the predicted winner   

Best Picture:

Anora*

Blitz

The Brutalist

Conclave 

Dune: Part Two

Emilia Perez

Gladiator II  

Nickel Boys

A Real Pain

Sing Sing 

Best Director:

Jacques Audiard, Emilia Perez 

Sean Baker, Anora* 

Brady Corbet, The Brutalist  

Steve McQueen, Blitz

Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two 

Best Actor:

Adrien Brody, The Brutalist 

Daniel Craig, Queer 

Colman Domingo, Sing Sing

Ralph Fiennes, Conclave* 

Paul Mescal, Gladiator II  

Best Actress:

Karla Sofia Gascon, Emilia Perez 

Angelina Jolie, Maria 

Nicole Kidman, Babygirl 

Mikey Madison, Anora* 

Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun 

Best Supporting Actor:

Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain* 

Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing 

Guy Pearce, The Brutalist

Stanley Tucci, Conclave

Denzel Washington, Gladiator II 

Best Supporting Actress:

Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson  

Selena Gomez, Emilia Perez 

Felicity Jones, The Brutalist  

Zoe Saldana, Emilia Perez* 

Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys 

Best Original Screenplay:

Anora*

Blitz

The Brutalist

A Real Pain

The Seed of the Sacred Fig

Best Adapted Screenplay:

Conclave*

Emilia Perez 

Nickel Boys

The Room Next Door

Sing Sing

Best Animated Feature:

Flow

Inside Out 2

Memoir of a Snail

Wallace and Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl

The Wild Robot*

Best Documentary Feature:

Black Box Diaries 

Daughters

The Remarkable Life of Ibelin

Sugarcane* 

Will & Harper

Best International Feature:

Emilia Perez*

The Girl with the Needle

Grand Tour

I'm Still Here

The Seed of the Sacred Fig 

Best Cinematography:

Lol Crawley, The Brutalist*

Greig Fraser, Dune: Part Two

Jomo Fray, Nickel Boys  

Paul Guilhaume, Emilia Perez 

Edward Lachman, Maria 

Best Film Editing:

Sean Baker, Anora

Nick Emerson, Conclave 

David Jancso, The Brutalist

Peter Sciberras, Blitz

Joe Walker, Dune: Part Two*

Best Costume Design:

Blitz

Dune: Part Two

Gladiator II

Maria

Wicked*

Best Makeup and Hairstyling:

Beetlejuice Beetlejuice

Dune: Part Two*

Nosferatu

The Substance

Wicked

Best Production Design:

Blitz

The Brutalist

Dune: Part Two

Gladiator II*

Wicked

Best Score:

Conclave*

Dune: Part Two 

Emilia Perez 

Saturday Night

The Wild Robot

Best Sound:

Blitz

Dune: Part Two*

Emilia Perez

Gladiator II 

Twisters 

Best Visual Effects:

Dune: Part Two*

Gladiator II

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes

Mufasa: The Lion King 

Twisters