Houston Texans
2018 Record: 11-5 (1st in AFC South)
Head Coach: Bill O'Brien (6th season)
Notable Additions: CB Bradley Roby, S Tashaun Gibson, RB Duke Johnson Jr.
Notable Departures: S Tyrann Mathieu, CB/S Kareem Jackson, CB Kevin Johnson
-While it ended on an ugly note with a lopsided 21-7 loss to the division rival Colts in his 1st ever playoff game, Deshuan Watson further solidified his status as a top-tier young quarterback in 2018. Watson ran the offense, which finished 11th in the league in scoring, beautifully amassing 4,165 passing YDS, another 551 YDS on the ground, a CMP % of 68.3 and 31 total TD's on the way to Bill O'Brien's 1st double digit win season as a head coach. The fact that he did all of this damage behind an atrocious offensive line while reacclimating to the game after missing the entire offseason program recovering from the torn ACL he suffered in October 2017 makes it even more impressive. Entering 2019 fully healthy with a nearly unchanged group of weapons puts him in the an excellent position to elevate his game even further in year 3. If he can retain the accuracy and precision under pressure (his 88.2 passer rating without a clean pocket led the league) he displayed last season without getting killed by the likely still awful offensive line, he should be a fixture on many 10 top quarterback lists come next offseason.
-If you were to compile a list of reasons why the Texans won't be able to repeat as AFC South champs, offensive line would likely be in the #1 spot. Even with their 11 wins last season, you could easily argue that they would've been even better if Watson didn't get sacked a league-high 62 times. Unsurprisingly, that embarrassing sack total forced them to address the position group this offseason after they threw next to no resources at this wildly problematic Achilles heel the previous year. However, their attempted solutions don't inspire a lot of confidence.
Matt Kalil was brought in off the scrap heap of washed-up vets to potentially play left tackle, which is especially alarming since the 30-year old missed all of 2018 after undergoing a knee scope. Joining the long-reeling Kalil is a pair of small school rookies in Tytus Howard and Max Scharping. Stop me if you'd heard this before, but both of these guys are big on athletic upside, but very shaky on technique. I'm sure those face-saving, buzzword-filled scouting reports will bring a lot of comfort to Watson as he mentally and physically prepares for another season full of regular meetings with his old friend the Turf.
Oh yeah, and you better believe every single starter from last season is still on the roster. As of right now, center Nick Martin, left guard Senio Kelemete and right guard Zach Fulton are even projected to start again!!!!! If Sentrel Henderson, who spent almost all of 2018 on IR with a broken ankle, ends up beating out Howard and Scharping for the right tackle spot, Watson might not ever stop smiling.
-No one seems to have a read on the Jadevon Clowney situation. He's been invisible since he was handed the franchise tag in early March and there seems to be no traction or even speculation about whether or not the Texans even offered a long-term deal prior to the July 15th deadline.
O'Brien himself said on Tuesday that he has no idea when or if Clowney's going to join the team and various media outlets have only added to the mystery surrounding his status by reporting everything from he's going to join the Texans after the 3rd preseason game to he's going to be traded to the Dolphins or Redskins by Week 1. With Whitney Mercilus coming off a down year, lack of proven depth on the edge and an overhauled secondary (Bradley Roby, Tashuan Gibson, Briean Boddy-Calhoun, rookie Lonnie Johnson Jr.) that would benefit greatly from the support a strong pass rush would provide them, they need Clowney more than ever. For the sake of their well-being in 2019, they better hope that this bizarre situation ends with Clowney reporting before Week 1.
-If 2019 proves to be a letdown for the Texans, O'Brien will likely be out the door. With GM Brian Gaine being fired in early June and no replacement being named, the door is open for the McNair family to put an end to the O'Brien's regime and let the new GM select a coach of their choosing. O'Brien has yet to get the job done in the playoffs (1-3) despite making it to the dance in 3 of his first 5 seasons as HC and no longer has the "we don't have a quarterback!" excuse to fall back on if they make yet another Wild Card Weekend exit. There's never been more pressure on O'Brien to perform and he could be packing his bags if he fails to capitalize on the talent he has at his disposal yet again.
-Adding pieces during training camp is a risky proposition. You're providing a very limited window for a player to learn the playbook and develop a rapport with his new teammates, which makes contributing in year 1 a pretty sketchy bet. Despite the inevitable reservations that comes with those type of moves, acquiring Duke Johnson Jr. from the Browns could prove to be a huge pickup for the Texans. Johnson provides a nice piece of depth behind Lamar Miller, who has gotten at least 235 touches every year since 2014 and needs as much as rest as he possibly get at this point in his career, while also giving them a versatile receiving piece that can line up in the slot as well as catch passes out of the backfield. Johnson also provides a level of durability (he's yet to miss a game in 4 seasons as a pro) that the Texans receivers (Will Fuller, Keke Coutee) next to DeAndre Hopkins lack and has a level of freshness that most backs (his career-high total for touches in a season is 165 and that came during his rookie campaign) don't have the luxury of having at nearly 26. Johnson has the potential to play himself into a significant role in this offense right away and could become a serious factor if the chemistry between him and Watson develops quickly.
Bottom Line:
Despite seemingly no notable improvements to their offensive line and the potential absence of Jadeveon Clowney, Deshaun Watson, a pretty stacked group of offensive weapons and their still solid defense is enough to inspire hope that they can repeat as division champs.
-While it ended on an ugly note with a lopsided 21-7 loss to the division rival Colts in his 1st ever playoff game, Deshuan Watson further solidified his status as a top-tier young quarterback in 2018. Watson ran the offense, which finished 11th in the league in scoring, beautifully amassing 4,165 passing YDS, another 551 YDS on the ground, a CMP % of 68.3 and 31 total TD's on the way to Bill O'Brien's 1st double digit win season as a head coach. The fact that he did all of this damage behind an atrocious offensive line while reacclimating to the game after missing the entire offseason program recovering from the torn ACL he suffered in October 2017 makes it even more impressive. Entering 2019 fully healthy with a nearly unchanged group of weapons puts him in the an excellent position to elevate his game even further in year 3. If he can retain the accuracy and precision under pressure (his 88.2 passer rating without a clean pocket led the league) he displayed last season without getting killed by the likely still awful offensive line, he should be a fixture on many 10 top quarterback lists come next offseason.
-If you were to compile a list of reasons why the Texans won't be able to repeat as AFC South champs, offensive line would likely be in the #1 spot. Even with their 11 wins last season, you could easily argue that they would've been even better if Watson didn't get sacked a league-high 62 times. Unsurprisingly, that embarrassing sack total forced them to address the position group this offseason after they threw next to no resources at this wildly problematic Achilles heel the previous year. However, their attempted solutions don't inspire a lot of confidence.
Matt Kalil was brought in off the scrap heap of washed-up vets to potentially play left tackle, which is especially alarming since the 30-year old missed all of 2018 after undergoing a knee scope. Joining the long-reeling Kalil is a pair of small school rookies in Tytus Howard and Max Scharping. Stop me if you'd heard this before, but both of these guys are big on athletic upside, but very shaky on technique. I'm sure those face-saving, buzzword-filled scouting reports will bring a lot of comfort to Watson as he mentally and physically prepares for another season full of regular meetings with his old friend the Turf.
Oh yeah, and you better believe every single starter from last season is still on the roster. As of right now, center Nick Martin, left guard Senio Kelemete and right guard Zach Fulton are even projected to start again!!!!! If Sentrel Henderson, who spent almost all of 2018 on IR with a broken ankle, ends up beating out Howard and Scharping for the right tackle spot, Watson might not ever stop smiling.
-No one seems to have a read on the Jadevon Clowney situation. He's been invisible since he was handed the franchise tag in early March and there seems to be no traction or even speculation about whether or not the Texans even offered a long-term deal prior to the July 15th deadline.
O'Brien himself said on Tuesday that he has no idea when or if Clowney's going to join the team and various media outlets have only added to the mystery surrounding his status by reporting everything from he's going to join the Texans after the 3rd preseason game to he's going to be traded to the Dolphins or Redskins by Week 1. With Whitney Mercilus coming off a down year, lack of proven depth on the edge and an overhauled secondary (Bradley Roby, Tashuan Gibson, Briean Boddy-Calhoun, rookie Lonnie Johnson Jr.) that would benefit greatly from the support a strong pass rush would provide them, they need Clowney more than ever. For the sake of their well-being in 2019, they better hope that this bizarre situation ends with Clowney reporting before Week 1.
-If 2019 proves to be a letdown for the Texans, O'Brien will likely be out the door. With GM Brian Gaine being fired in early June and no replacement being named, the door is open for the McNair family to put an end to the O'Brien's regime and let the new GM select a coach of their choosing. O'Brien has yet to get the job done in the playoffs (1-3) despite making it to the dance in 3 of his first 5 seasons as HC and no longer has the "we don't have a quarterback!" excuse to fall back on if they make yet another Wild Card Weekend exit. There's never been more pressure on O'Brien to perform and he could be packing his bags if he fails to capitalize on the talent he has at his disposal yet again.
-Adding pieces during training camp is a risky proposition. You're providing a very limited window for a player to learn the playbook and develop a rapport with his new teammates, which makes contributing in year 1 a pretty sketchy bet. Despite the inevitable reservations that comes with those type of moves, acquiring Duke Johnson Jr. from the Browns could prove to be a huge pickup for the Texans. Johnson provides a nice piece of depth behind Lamar Miller, who has gotten at least 235 touches every year since 2014 and needs as much as rest as he possibly get at this point in his career, while also giving them a versatile receiving piece that can line up in the slot as well as catch passes out of the backfield. Johnson also provides a level of durability (he's yet to miss a game in 4 seasons as a pro) that the Texans receivers (Will Fuller, Keke Coutee) next to DeAndre Hopkins lack and has a level of freshness that most backs (his career-high total for touches in a season is 165 and that came during his rookie campaign) don't have the luxury of having at nearly 26. Johnson has the potential to play himself into a significant role in this offense right away and could become a serious factor if the chemistry between him and Watson develops quickly.
Bottom Line:
Despite seemingly no notable improvements to their offensive line and the potential absence of Jadeveon Clowney, Deshaun Watson, a pretty stacked group of offensive weapons and their still solid defense is enough to inspire hope that they can repeat as division champs.
Indianapolis Colts
2018 Record: 10-6 (2nd in AFC South)
Head Coach: Frank Reich (2nd season)
Notable Additions: OLB Justin Houston, WR Devin Funchess, S Derrick Kindred
Notable Departures: DT Al Woods, S J.J. Wilcox, WR Dontrelle Inman
-Jim Irsay spoke about Andrew Luck's health on Tuesday, so that means the concerns over the severity of his injury are now even more legitimate. A reported calf strain, which he initially suffered during OTA's in April, has prevented the star quarterback from stepping onto the practice field since July 28th. Now according to Irsay, he also has "a little bone problem" in his lower left leg that's contributing to his absence. GM Chris Ballard further added to the story later in the day by saying that Luck is now dealing with a "high ankle issue". Just the type of developments Colts fans wanted to hear with the regular season less than a month away.
The vagueness surrounding what exactly Luck is dealing with is eerily reminiscent of what happened in 2017 when he missed the entire season with a shoulder ailment that was originally reported to be minor. Durability has always been a major question mark with Luck and after a terrific bounceback season last year where he appeared in all 16 games and battled his ass off to lead the Colts to a surprise playoff appearance after a 1-5 start, this red flag couldn't have reemerged at a worse time.
Jacoby Brissett may be a better than average backup option if this mystery lower body injury turns out to be something that sidelines him for significant time, but the Colts simply can not contend without Luck under center. While they may have a deeper cache of weapons (Marlon Mack, Eric Ebron, new addition Devin Funchess) surrounding T.Y. Hilton and much more polished offensive line than they did in 2017, Luck's playmaking prowess is what makes this offense dangerous and inserting a respectable game manager into the lineup in his place just isn't going to generate the same level of results. It's going to be a long few weeks in Indy as Colts players, coaches and fans wait for this potentially season-altering saga to unfold.
-Even if he's not forced to become a focal point of the offense in the wake of Luck's potential absence, Mack appears set to take another step forward in 2019. Having an actual offensive line in front of him boosted his yards per carry average from 3.8 as a rookie to 4.7 as a sophomore and with the exact same group of guys (Nykiem Hines, Jordan Wilkins, Jonathan Williams) behind him on the depth chart, the hard-running University of South Florida product should be able to hold onto the uncontested starting job that he won last October shortly after returning from a hamstring injury that caused him to miss 4 of the 1st 5 games of the season. His limitations as a receiver (only 38 receptions in 26 career games) will likely prevent him from becoming a 3-down sensation, but he should be able to net his 1st career 1,000-yard rushing campaign if he can stay on the field.
-Matt Eberflus' decision to remain defensive coordinator after Josh McDaniels bailed out of the head coaching job proved to be a massive blessing for the Colts. Their defense jumped from 26th to 6th against the rush, 28th to 16th against the pass and 30th to 10th in points allowed in his inaugural year on the job. Not only did the overall numbers improve, his coaching led to drastic improvements in play from several veterans (Pierre Desir, Kenny Moore, Margus Hunt) that were considered busts prior to playing in his system and very strong early development from their young starters (Darius Leonard, Malik Hooker, Anthony Walker Jr.).
Ballard gave Eberflus a few more intriguing pieces to work this offseason with the signing of free agent Justin Houston and drafting of corner Rock Ya-Sin, and linebackers Ben Bangou and Bobby Okereke. Houston is a prolific edge rusher (78.5 sacks in 102 career games) that should provide an immediate boost to a group that finished tied for 19th in sacks (38) last year and while all these young guys appear to be too raw to get significant reps right away, they're ideal fits for the fast, physical group that Eberflus is trying to build here. Tough defense is becoming an increasingly rare artform in an offense-driven league, but Eberflus is taking the right approach with his troops and could be well on his way to building a legitimate juggernaut in Indy.
Bottom Line:
The uncertainty surrounding Andrew Luck's health to start the season is clouding an otherwise rosy forecast for the Colts.
-Jim Irsay spoke about Andrew Luck's health on Tuesday, so that means the concerns over the severity of his injury are now even more legitimate. A reported calf strain, which he initially suffered during OTA's in April, has prevented the star quarterback from stepping onto the practice field since July 28th. Now according to Irsay, he also has "a little bone problem" in his lower left leg that's contributing to his absence. GM Chris Ballard further added to the story later in the day by saying that Luck is now dealing with a "high ankle issue". Just the type of developments Colts fans wanted to hear with the regular season less than a month away.
The vagueness surrounding what exactly Luck is dealing with is eerily reminiscent of what happened in 2017 when he missed the entire season with a shoulder ailment that was originally reported to be minor. Durability has always been a major question mark with Luck and after a terrific bounceback season last year where he appeared in all 16 games and battled his ass off to lead the Colts to a surprise playoff appearance after a 1-5 start, this red flag couldn't have reemerged at a worse time.
Jacoby Brissett may be a better than average backup option if this mystery lower body injury turns out to be something that sidelines him for significant time, but the Colts simply can not contend without Luck under center. While they may have a deeper cache of weapons (Marlon Mack, Eric Ebron, new addition Devin Funchess) surrounding T.Y. Hilton and much more polished offensive line than they did in 2017, Luck's playmaking prowess is what makes this offense dangerous and inserting a respectable game manager into the lineup in his place just isn't going to generate the same level of results. It's going to be a long few weeks in Indy as Colts players, coaches and fans wait for this potentially season-altering saga to unfold.
-Even if he's not forced to become a focal point of the offense in the wake of Luck's potential absence, Mack appears set to take another step forward in 2019. Having an actual offensive line in front of him boosted his yards per carry average from 3.8 as a rookie to 4.7 as a sophomore and with the exact same group of guys (Nykiem Hines, Jordan Wilkins, Jonathan Williams) behind him on the depth chart, the hard-running University of South Florida product should be able to hold onto the uncontested starting job that he won last October shortly after returning from a hamstring injury that caused him to miss 4 of the 1st 5 games of the season. His limitations as a receiver (only 38 receptions in 26 career games) will likely prevent him from becoming a 3-down sensation, but he should be able to net his 1st career 1,000-yard rushing campaign if he can stay on the field.
-Matt Eberflus' decision to remain defensive coordinator after Josh McDaniels bailed out of the head coaching job proved to be a massive blessing for the Colts. Their defense jumped from 26th to 6th against the rush, 28th to 16th against the pass and 30th to 10th in points allowed in his inaugural year on the job. Not only did the overall numbers improve, his coaching led to drastic improvements in play from several veterans (Pierre Desir, Kenny Moore, Margus Hunt) that were considered busts prior to playing in his system and very strong early development from their young starters (Darius Leonard, Malik Hooker, Anthony Walker Jr.).
Ballard gave Eberflus a few more intriguing pieces to work this offseason with the signing of free agent Justin Houston and drafting of corner Rock Ya-Sin, and linebackers Ben Bangou and Bobby Okereke. Houston is a prolific edge rusher (78.5 sacks in 102 career games) that should provide an immediate boost to a group that finished tied for 19th in sacks (38) last year and while all these young guys appear to be too raw to get significant reps right away, they're ideal fits for the fast, physical group that Eberflus is trying to build here. Tough defense is becoming an increasingly rare artform in an offense-driven league, but Eberflus is taking the right approach with his troops and could be well on his way to building a legitimate juggernaut in Indy.
Bottom Line:
The uncertainty surrounding Andrew Luck's health to start the season is clouding an otherwise rosy forecast for the Colts.
Jacksonville Jaguars
2018 Record: 5-11 (4th in AFC South)
Head Coach: Doug Marrone (3rd season)
Notable Additions: QB Nick Foles, ILB Jake Ryan, TE Geoff Swaim
Notable Departures: QB Blake Bortles, DT Malik Jackson, OLB Telvin Smith (retired)
-A scapegoat clearly needed to emerge after the Jaguars followed up a 2017 season where they made it all the way to the AFC Championship Game with a 5-11 season in 2018. Since Doug Marrone was spared (for now at least), quarterback Blake Bortles ended up being it. It was pretty much an inevitable move as Bortles got benched for Cody Kessler late in the year and couldn't replicate the magic he displayed during the 2017 campaign, but it was still a little bit of a shock to see them sever ties with him so quickly after inking him to a contract extension a year ago.
With Bortles gone, they had to open up their search for a new quarterback. Clearly with the construction of their roster and Marrone's hot seat status, they were going to opt to look for help in free agency over the draft. In 2019, this meant they were signing Nick Foles. Big Dick Nick was literally the only starting-caliber quarterback on the market this offseason and with no other QB-needy teams in pursuit of an expensive veteran, it was a foregone conclusion that he was headed to Jacksonville once the Eagles let him out of the final year of his deal.
Foles' reputation is obviously at an all time high after leading the Eagles to a wildly unlikely Super Bowl victory 2 seasons ago in relief of an injured Carson Wentz and stepping into save their season yet again in 2018 by making a miracle playoff push once Wentz went down with a back injury in early December. Here's the thing though: the clutch, turnover-averse warrior he often was during his 2 stints with the Eagles hasn't translated elsewhere.
His lone season as the Rams starter back in 2015 was a complete disaster where he posted 7 TD's and 10 INT's in 11 games before being benched for Case Keenum and eventually released. The Chiefs then cut ties with him as the backup following an uneventful 2016 season, a move which eventually paved the way for his redemption tour in Philly to take place.
Has Foles grown since the last time he left the city of Brotherly Love ? Possibly. He hadn't outdueled Tom Brady and become a Philly folk hero thanks to his ability to consistently come through in tough situations in huge games during his 1st stint with the Eagles. However, there isn't going to be a Doug Pederson and roster full of offensive weapons in Jacksonville to maximize his output. New offensive coordinator John DeFilippo, ironically a Pederson disciple, got fired by the Vikings last December before he could complete his 1st full season as their OC and their erratic offense is led by a largely inexperienced receiving corps headlined by 3rd year pro Dede Westbrook-who got just 717 YDS last season and running back Leonard Forunette-whose 1st 2 seasons in the league have been a roller coaster ride where injuries and questions about his work ethic have overshadowed the stretches of dominant play.
It's certainly possible that Foles' past relationship brings out the best in both of them (DeFilipo was Foles' QB coach with the Eagles in 2017), but DeFilippo's poor showing in both of his past 1 year stints as an NFL's OC paired with Foles' well-documented struggles when he isn't wearing a Midnight Green uniform makes the odds of them successfully turning around the Jags offense not particularly great.
-Marrone may have staved off extinction at the end of last year, but that doesn't mean his job is safe by any means. 2018 was an absolute embarrassment for this franchise after they appeared to be on the cusp of emerging as the most legitimate threat to the Patriots reign of terror on the AFC to emerge in quite some time a year earlier and the lack of accountability Marrone put on his players was a crucial part of their heinous unraveling.
Now the burning question going into 2019 will be can Marrone adjust his way of doing things with his job likely on the line. Will he get on this team when they're putting forth poor effort? Can he successfully reestablish the mix of brashness, toughness and discipline that allowed them to have success in 2017 after falling into the dangerous trap that winning in pro sports is far easier than it actually is that many young teams can't avoid after experiencing a season defined by surprising success? Above all, can he can get guys to buy back into his system after going through such a nauseating season? If he doesn't execute most of these tasks and/or get this team back to playing a respectable brand of football, Tom Coughlin will have no problem swiftly kicking his bologna-loving ass to the curb before the season comes to a close.
-Even with the optimism some have surrounding Foles' arrival and the positive impact it could have on their long-suffering offense, this team is still built around the defense. Almost all of their best players reside on that side of the ball and Todd Wash's group somehow managed to allow the 5th least total yards (311.4 YDS per game) and 4th least points in the league (19.8 per game) during a season where nobody besides Calias Campbell and Marcell Dareus was playing anywhere close to the top of their game.
That quest to retain such a high level of play got notably harder this offseason. Veteran centerpiece/superb run-stuffer Telvin Smith suddenly stepped away from the game in May and thanks to some cap problems, they had to release safety Tashuan Gibson and defensive tackle Malik Jackson to free up space. Since they used just about all of the cap space they cleared to sign Foles, their replacements for these guys aren't particularly encouraging. With the exception of Jackson's replacement Adry Jones-a 7-year yet whose logged 32 career starts, all of their projected starters are very green. Their new starting safety duo (Ronnie Harrison, Jarrod Wilson) have a combined 10 career starts between them, 2nd year inside linebacker Leon Jacobs was invisible in 3 starts a year ago and rookie Quincy Williams, an athletically gifted yet undersized developmental dart throw that wasn't even on most team's draft boards, is now expected to start as a result of Smith's surprise retirement. Undergoing such a dramatic shift in experience not only makes this group susceptible to a talent-based regression, but could also build upon the discipline issues that derailed their 2018 campaign.
It's not all doom and gloom for the Jags defense heading into 2019. Josh Allen is a tenacious, versatile edge defender with a super high ceiling that could serve as the perfect complement to QB terrorizer Yannick Ngakoue and Jake Ryan, who is likely to start the year on the PUP list as he recovers from a torn ACL he suffered last August, was a very productive inside linebacker during his time with the Packers. Pair these additions with resurgent campaigns from Ngkaoue, Jalen Ramsey, A.J. Bouye, and Myles Jack, and they could very well return to being the best damn defense in the league.
Bottom Line:
As important as Nick Foles and Doug Marrone are to this team's chances of getting back into the thick of the AFC playoff hunt, a return to glory isn't going to happen if this defense doesn't at least come close to replicating the suffocating dominance they displayed throughout 2017.
-A scapegoat clearly needed to emerge after the Jaguars followed up a 2017 season where they made it all the way to the AFC Championship Game with a 5-11 season in 2018. Since Doug Marrone was spared (for now at least), quarterback Blake Bortles ended up being it. It was pretty much an inevitable move as Bortles got benched for Cody Kessler late in the year and couldn't replicate the magic he displayed during the 2017 campaign, but it was still a little bit of a shock to see them sever ties with him so quickly after inking him to a contract extension a year ago.
With Bortles gone, they had to open up their search for a new quarterback. Clearly with the construction of their roster and Marrone's hot seat status, they were going to opt to look for help in free agency over the draft. In 2019, this meant they were signing Nick Foles. Big Dick Nick was literally the only starting-caliber quarterback on the market this offseason and with no other QB-needy teams in pursuit of an expensive veteran, it was a foregone conclusion that he was headed to Jacksonville once the Eagles let him out of the final year of his deal.
Foles' reputation is obviously at an all time high after leading the Eagles to a wildly unlikely Super Bowl victory 2 seasons ago in relief of an injured Carson Wentz and stepping into save their season yet again in 2018 by making a miracle playoff push once Wentz went down with a back injury in early December. Here's the thing though: the clutch, turnover-averse warrior he often was during his 2 stints with the Eagles hasn't translated elsewhere.
His lone season as the Rams starter back in 2015 was a complete disaster where he posted 7 TD's and 10 INT's in 11 games before being benched for Case Keenum and eventually released. The Chiefs then cut ties with him as the backup following an uneventful 2016 season, a move which eventually paved the way for his redemption tour in Philly to take place.
Has Foles grown since the last time he left the city of Brotherly Love ? Possibly. He hadn't outdueled Tom Brady and become a Philly folk hero thanks to his ability to consistently come through in tough situations in huge games during his 1st stint with the Eagles. However, there isn't going to be a Doug Pederson and roster full of offensive weapons in Jacksonville to maximize his output. New offensive coordinator John DeFilippo, ironically a Pederson disciple, got fired by the Vikings last December before he could complete his 1st full season as their OC and their erratic offense is led by a largely inexperienced receiving corps headlined by 3rd year pro Dede Westbrook-who got just 717 YDS last season and running back Leonard Forunette-whose 1st 2 seasons in the league have been a roller coaster ride where injuries and questions about his work ethic have overshadowed the stretches of dominant play.
It's certainly possible that Foles' past relationship brings out the best in both of them (DeFilipo was Foles' QB coach with the Eagles in 2017), but DeFilippo's poor showing in both of his past 1 year stints as an NFL's OC paired with Foles' well-documented struggles when he isn't wearing a Midnight Green uniform makes the odds of them successfully turning around the Jags offense not particularly great.
-Marrone may have staved off extinction at the end of last year, but that doesn't mean his job is safe by any means. 2018 was an absolute embarrassment for this franchise after they appeared to be on the cusp of emerging as the most legitimate threat to the Patriots reign of terror on the AFC to emerge in quite some time a year earlier and the lack of accountability Marrone put on his players was a crucial part of their heinous unraveling.
Now the burning question going into 2019 will be can Marrone adjust his way of doing things with his job likely on the line. Will he get on this team when they're putting forth poor effort? Can he successfully reestablish the mix of brashness, toughness and discipline that allowed them to have success in 2017 after falling into the dangerous trap that winning in pro sports is far easier than it actually is that many young teams can't avoid after experiencing a season defined by surprising success? Above all, can he can get guys to buy back into his system after going through such a nauseating season? If he doesn't execute most of these tasks and/or get this team back to playing a respectable brand of football, Tom Coughlin will have no problem swiftly kicking his bologna-loving ass to the curb before the season comes to a close.
-Even with the optimism some have surrounding Foles' arrival and the positive impact it could have on their long-suffering offense, this team is still built around the defense. Almost all of their best players reside on that side of the ball and Todd Wash's group somehow managed to allow the 5th least total yards (311.4 YDS per game) and 4th least points in the league (19.8 per game) during a season where nobody besides Calias Campbell and Marcell Dareus was playing anywhere close to the top of their game.
That quest to retain such a high level of play got notably harder this offseason. Veteran centerpiece/superb run-stuffer Telvin Smith suddenly stepped away from the game in May and thanks to some cap problems, they had to release safety Tashuan Gibson and defensive tackle Malik Jackson to free up space. Since they used just about all of the cap space they cleared to sign Foles, their replacements for these guys aren't particularly encouraging. With the exception of Jackson's replacement Adry Jones-a 7-year yet whose logged 32 career starts, all of their projected starters are very green. Their new starting safety duo (Ronnie Harrison, Jarrod Wilson) have a combined 10 career starts between them, 2nd year inside linebacker Leon Jacobs was invisible in 3 starts a year ago and rookie Quincy Williams, an athletically gifted yet undersized developmental dart throw that wasn't even on most team's draft boards, is now expected to start as a result of Smith's surprise retirement. Undergoing such a dramatic shift in experience not only makes this group susceptible to a talent-based regression, but could also build upon the discipline issues that derailed their 2018 campaign.
It's not all doom and gloom for the Jags defense heading into 2019. Josh Allen is a tenacious, versatile edge defender with a super high ceiling that could serve as the perfect complement to QB terrorizer Yannick Ngakoue and Jake Ryan, who is likely to start the year on the PUP list as he recovers from a torn ACL he suffered last August, was a very productive inside linebacker during his time with the Packers. Pair these additions with resurgent campaigns from Ngkaoue, Jalen Ramsey, A.J. Bouye, and Myles Jack, and they could very well return to being the best damn defense in the league.
Bottom Line:
As important as Nick Foles and Doug Marrone are to this team's chances of getting back into the thick of the AFC playoff hunt, a return to glory isn't going to happen if this defense doesn't at least come close to replicating the suffocating dominance they displayed throughout 2017.
Tennessee Titans
2018 Record: 9-7 (3rd in AFC South)
Head Coach: Mike Vrabel (2nd season)
Notable Additions: G Rodger Saffold, WR Adam Humphries, DE/OLB Cameron Wake
Notable Departures: G Quinton Spain, G Josh Kline, OLB Brian Orakpo (retired)
-Marcus Mariota's judgement day is finally upon us. Will the Titans choose to sign the 26 year old to a long-term deal after this season or hit the reset the button after an extensive run of staggering mediocrity? How 2019 ends up playing out for this seemingly perennial fringe playoff team will likely be the deciding factor in that decision.
At this point, you know what you're getting with Mariota. He's a game manager with average accuracy, solid mobility, respectable decisionmaking and a bad allergy that prevents him from getting into the endzone that's been roughly a .500 quarterback in a run-heavy system throughout his career thus far. That skill set might not get you a bust in Canton after you retire, but you can win playing that way if you have a roster that's built to shield the lack of playmaking prowess you have at the position. So far, it hasn't been as the Titans have only netted 1 playoff berth since Mariota arrived in 2015.
Clearly the confidence level in Mariota's ability to take the team to the playoffs in his contract year isn't tremendous as they acquired Ryan Tannehill from the Dolphins in the offseason. With longtime assistant Arthur Smith being promoted to offensive coordinator following the departure of Matt LaFluer, the conservative, smashmouth offense they've ran over the past several coaching regimes (Mike Munchak, Ken Wisenhunt, Mike Mularkey, Mike Vrabel) isn't going anywhere, so GM Jon Robinson figured if Mariota can't get the results, maybe fellow checkdown/handoff specialist Tannehill can. How Mariota responds to the pressure of having a comparable player behind him on the depth chart could very well be the difference between clinching the playoff berth he needs to secure a long-term home in Nashville and a disrespectful benching that would result in him getting jettisoned for somebody's whose more or less his doppelgänger.
-Marcus Mariota's judgement day is finally upon us. Will the Titans choose to sign the 26 year old to a long-term deal after this season or hit the reset the button after an extensive run of staggering mediocrity? How 2019 ends up playing out for this seemingly perennial fringe playoff team will likely be the deciding factor in that decision.
At this point, you know what you're getting with Mariota. He's a game manager with average accuracy, solid mobility, respectable decisionmaking and a bad allergy that prevents him from getting into the endzone that's been roughly a .500 quarterback in a run-heavy system throughout his career thus far. That skill set might not get you a bust in Canton after you retire, but you can win playing that way if you have a roster that's built to shield the lack of playmaking prowess you have at the position. So far, it hasn't been as the Titans have only netted 1 playoff berth since Mariota arrived in 2015.
Clearly the confidence level in Mariota's ability to take the team to the playoffs in his contract year isn't tremendous as they acquired Ryan Tannehill from the Dolphins in the offseason. With longtime assistant Arthur Smith being promoted to offensive coordinator following the departure of Matt LaFluer, the conservative, smashmouth offense they've ran over the past several coaching regimes (Mike Munchak, Ken Wisenhunt, Mike Mularkey, Mike Vrabel) isn't going anywhere, so GM Jon Robinson figured if Mariota can't get the results, maybe fellow checkdown/handoff specialist Tannehill can. How Mariota responds to the pressure of having a comparable player behind him on the depth chart could very well be the difference between clinching the playoff berth he needs to secure a long-term home in Nashville and a disrespectful benching that would result in him getting jettisoned for somebody's whose more or less his doppelgänger.
-The Titans were within 1 game of getting the final Wild Card spot in the AFC last year largely because of Derrick Henry's absurd late season rampage. After not registering more than 58 yards and being stuck in a timeshare with Dion Lewis for the 1st 12 games, Henry turned into a dominant workhorse rushing for 585 YDS and 7 TD's over the final 4 games of the season. Clearly that type of Madden-esque production isn't sustainable, but seeing if Henry can build off of this amazing finish to 2018 is the most important narrative for the Titans in 2019.
The fact that Henry accumulated 585 yards of his 1,059 rushing YDS last season over a 4-game stretch is undeniably worrisome. Glancing at that stat along with Henry's career totals (2,293 YDS in 3 seasons) makes that run seem like a superhuman mirage in an otherwise forgettable career. That being said, I'm starting to think his so-so numbers prior to that 4-game explosion was largely caused by low volume. He averaged at least 4 YDS per carry in nearly half of the 1st 12 games last year, but only exceeded 11 touches in 3 of those games. This sturdy offensive line arguably managed to improve with the addition of Rodger Saffold in free agency and their RB depth remains pretty dismal, so why can't Henry continue to deliver as a workhorse back? If Henry emerges as a legit feature back for an entire season, this team's throwback smashmouth formula should work better than ever.
-As you could deduce from the paragraphs above, I'm a Titans offensive truther. Handing a splashy deal (4 years/$36 mil/$19 mil guaranteed) to ex-Buccaneers slot receiver Adam Humphries and spending a 2nd round pick on deep threat A.J. Brown does not mean this offense isn't going to undergo a change in philosophy. They spent a top 10 pick on Corey Davis in 2017 and still barely throw the ball (28th and 31st in passing attempts respectively over the past 2 years). Running the ball is king in Nashville and unless Davis, Humphries, Brown and whoever else is employed to catch a few screen passes each game are all going to starve in this offense.
-If the offense can do their part and put a decent amount of points on the board, this defense fits the mold of a successful "protect a lead" type of team. The Titans were remarkably tough on D last season, finishing 3rd in points allowed (18.9 per game), 6th in passing defense (216.9 YDS per game) and tied for 10th in sacks (47). With nearly no turnover outside of exchanging retired Brian Orakpo for ageless sack master Cameron Wake at the left outside linebacker spot, Dean Pees' troops should be a behemoth once again.
Kevin Byard is the best ballhawk safety in the league that no one talks about, Jurrell Casey is an elite defensive line anchor that wreaks havoc on a weekly basis and they have a couple of young players (inside linebacker Jayon Brown, cornerback Adoree' Jackson) that appear to be on the verge of turning into full blown stars in this league. They could use a bit of work against the run and the takeaways absolutely need to be better for them to become truly feared, but they're one of the most underrated defenses in the league and given how much youth they have, they likely haven't even scratched the surface of their potential just yet. Watch out for these guys in 2019.
Bottom Line:
Despite boasting a terrific defense, the Titans weak, ultraconservative offense will likely keep them on the wrong side of the playoff picture for the 3rd time in the last 4 years.
The fact that Henry accumulated 585 yards of his 1,059 rushing YDS last season over a 4-game stretch is undeniably worrisome. Glancing at that stat along with Henry's career totals (2,293 YDS in 3 seasons) makes that run seem like a superhuman mirage in an otherwise forgettable career. That being said, I'm starting to think his so-so numbers prior to that 4-game explosion was largely caused by low volume. He averaged at least 4 YDS per carry in nearly half of the 1st 12 games last year, but only exceeded 11 touches in 3 of those games. This sturdy offensive line arguably managed to improve with the addition of Rodger Saffold in free agency and their RB depth remains pretty dismal, so why can't Henry continue to deliver as a workhorse back? If Henry emerges as a legit feature back for an entire season, this team's throwback smashmouth formula should work better than ever.
-As you could deduce from the paragraphs above, I'm a Titans offensive truther. Handing a splashy deal (4 years/$36 mil/$19 mil guaranteed) to ex-Buccaneers slot receiver Adam Humphries and spending a 2nd round pick on deep threat A.J. Brown does not mean this offense isn't going to undergo a change in philosophy. They spent a top 10 pick on Corey Davis in 2017 and still barely throw the ball (28th and 31st in passing attempts respectively over the past 2 years). Running the ball is king in Nashville and unless Davis, Humphries, Brown and whoever else is employed to catch a few screen passes each game are all going to starve in this offense.
-If the offense can do their part and put a decent amount of points on the board, this defense fits the mold of a successful "protect a lead" type of team. The Titans were remarkably tough on D last season, finishing 3rd in points allowed (18.9 per game), 6th in passing defense (216.9 YDS per game) and tied for 10th in sacks (47). With nearly no turnover outside of exchanging retired Brian Orakpo for ageless sack master Cameron Wake at the left outside linebacker spot, Dean Pees' troops should be a behemoth once again.
Kevin Byard is the best ballhawk safety in the league that no one talks about, Jurrell Casey is an elite defensive line anchor that wreaks havoc on a weekly basis and they have a couple of young players (inside linebacker Jayon Brown, cornerback Adoree' Jackson) that appear to be on the verge of turning into full blown stars in this league. They could use a bit of work against the run and the takeaways absolutely need to be better for them to become truly feared, but they're one of the most underrated defenses in the league and given how much youth they have, they likely haven't even scratched the surface of their potential just yet. Watch out for these guys in 2019.
Bottom Line:
Despite boasting a terrific defense, the Titans weak, ultraconservative offense will likely keep them on the wrong side of the playoff picture for the 3rd time in the last 4 years.
Projected Standings:
1.Houston Texans (10-6)
2.Tennessee Titans (8-8)
3.Indianapolis Colts (7-9)
3.Indianapolis Colts (7-9)
4.Jacksonville Jaguars (6-10)
No comments:
Post a Comment