Thursday, August 1, 2019

2019 NFL Preview: NFC East

Dallas Cowboys:
2018 Record: 10-6 (1st in NFC East)
Head Coach: Jason Garrett (9th season)
Notable Additions: TE Jason Witten, DE Robert Quinn, WR Randall Cobb
Notable Departures: WR Cole Beasley, DT David Irving (retired), TE Geoff Swaim 
-Ezekiel Elliott's holdout has been the talk of Cowboys training camp so far. Of course, Jerry Jones has to get his smug mug in front of the camera to tell the world simultaneously that Elliott will be on the field to start the season and that his beloved 'Boys could win a Super Bowl without a running back of his caliber. In the past, I'd agree with him. Darren McFadden's corpse got dragged along for over 1,000 yards in 2015 after not rushing for more than 707 in any of the prior 4 seasons simply because the line was so damn dominant. I'm not so sure that "throw anybody with 2 working legs back there" approach will work as well if they're forced to implement it again in 2019.

For starters, this iteration of the line isn't the wrecking crew they had in 2015. Don't get it twisted, they're still a respectable enough group anchored by a pair of future Hall of Famers in guard Zach Martin and left tackle Tyron Smith. But unlike 2015, there's an alarming lack of reliability at the other 3 spots on the line. Connor Williams is coming off of a brutal rookie season where he was routinely overwhelmed as both a pass and rush blocker, La'el Collins is a below average right tackle that has a gift for allowing sacks at inopportune times and 3x All-Pro center Travis Fredrick is slowly trying to get back into a groove after being sidelined for all of 2018 with a bout of Gullain-Barre syndrome-a rare illness which causes rapid weakness of the muscles. If any of these guys go down, things would get even more dire as notorious veteran stiffs Xavier Su'a Filo and Cameron Fleming or raw rookie Connor McGovern would be forced into action.

Perhaps even more alarming than the o-line would be the running back options available if Zeke isn't around. Rookie Tony Pollard earned more reps as a return specialist than a traditional back during his time at Memphis, Darius Jackson is a practice squad journeyman whose only amassed 6 career carries in an actual NFL game and the newly signed Alfred Morris is an aging power back (he'll be 31 in December) who can't handle a sizable workload anymore. I can't believe I'm about to say this, but they shouldn't have let a guy like Rod Smith walk in free agency. His generally well-rounded skill set without the age baggage Morris brings to the table could've made this potential crisis situation a bit less scary.

Paying a running back big bucks is risky as hell because of the non-stop beatings they take from touching the ball so much. Hell, the Rams are probably already having buyer's remorse with Todd Gurley, who signed a massive extension prior to last season, after he got worn down to the point of near total ineffectiveness down the stretch. But if Jones doesn't dig deep into his piggy bank to pay Elliott, whatever small chance the Cowboys have of winning a title pretty much goes out the window. Dak Prescott has yet to prove that he's good enough to lead an offense with his arm and their new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore will have his work cut out for him if he's forced to turn to more a vertical attack in his inaugural season as a playcaller.

-For as many question marks that currently surround the offense (Elliott's holdout, are Prescott and Amari Cooper good enough to justify giving huge paydays to after this season, is Michael Gallup ready to take on a bigger role in his 2nd year, is Moore ready to be an OC), the defense is easily in the best shape it's been in recent memory. Jones acted swiftly and locked up edge terrorizer DeMarcus Lawrence to a long-term deal (5 years/$105 mil/$48 mil guaranteed) in April, their young linebackers (Jaylon Smith, Leighton Vander Esch) are a smart, instinctive duo that could conceivably be patrolling the middle of the field for the better part of the next decade and the secondary that had long given them headaches is finally a solid enough group thanks to the emergence of the absurdly versatile Byron Jones as an elite defensive back.

The positive feeling surrounding this group further intensified this offseason with the additions of some nice veteran depth (Robert Quinn, George Iloka, Kerry Hyder, Christian Covington) to put alongside their strong, youth-driven corps. If the secondary around Jones can improve-which is very possible considering the amount of youth (Chidobe Awuzie, Xavier Woods, Jourdan Lewis, Darian Thompson) they have at both corner and safety-these guys are going to be borderline unstoppable.

-It's not likely to have much of a positive or negative impact on the team, but Jason Witten returning to football is absolutely hilarious. This dude got so much scrutiny for his rambling, nonsensical color commentary on Monday Night Football last season that he decided at 37, it was time to return to the field just so he wouldn't have to be a broadcaster anymore. Just an amazing, reckless act by a future Hall-of-Famer who has absolutely no business playing in 2019. Looking forward to his 2nd retirement at end of the season after he hauls in roughly 20 passes and maybe gets in the endzone a couple of times.  

Bottom Line:
The Cowboys have a blend of competence and stupidity at all levels of the operation that truly is unmatched in the league. An 8-8 or 11-5 finish seem equally likely.

New York Giants
2018 Record: 5-11 (4th in NFC East)
Head Coach: Pat Shurmer (2nd season)
Notable Additions: G Kevin Zeitler, WR Golden Tate, S Jabrill Peppers
Notable Departures: WR Odell Beckham Jr., DE Olivier Vernon, S Landon Collins
-Dave Gettleman shouldn't have a position of power in this league. There's plenty of executives over the years that have taken the Jackson Pollack approach to teambuilding (Sashi Brown, Phil Emery, John Idzik to name a few), but none of them have earned the bizarre level of respect and trust from the owner's they work for than Gettleman has earned throughout his career. Guess that's what being a top front office assistant during 2 unlikely Super Bowl runs for this very same Giants organization earns you in this ridiculous league...

I compel anyone looking over the slew of personnel moves Gettleman made this offseason to try and figure out what the hell he's trying to accomplish. Trading a franchise cornerstone in Odell Beckham Jr. a year after inking him to an extension that made him the highest paid WR in the league and letting 25-year old secondary leader Landon Collins walk after appearing in 3 Pro Bowls in his 1st 4 seasons? Oh, they must be rebuilding. Replace OBJ with respected veteran possession receiver Golden Tate and land top-tier guard Kevin Zeitler in the OBJ deal? Wait, are they trying to win now? Deal top edge rusher Olivier Vernon to the Browns and finally draft a quarterback to succeed Eli Manning (more on this later....). Okay, looks they're going to hit that reset button after all. All but confirm that Manning's decrepit, geriatric ass is going to start as long as he's on the roster. WHAT THE FUCK ARE YOU DOING DAVE??????? This roster is a living, breathing identity crisis constructed by a guy who wants to give off the illusion this team is still contending by bringing in some splashy vets with good pedigrees to try and mask the stink protruding from every orifice of this roster. Refusing to fully commit to a rebuild after winning 8 games over the past 2 seasons makes you wonder what the hell its going to take to get Gettleman and his contingent of dink underlings to start getting serious about trying to right the ship.

-Of course the top individual headline to come out of East Rutherford this spring was the drafting of a quarterback in the 1st round. It's no secret that they had put off drafting Eli Manning's successor for quite some time. In fact, just last year they passed on the opportunity to take Sam Darnold with the #2 overall pick because they still had faith in Manning's ability to take them to the promised land. So who did Gettleman select to be the next starting quarterback for the New York Football Giants? Duke Blue Devils legend Daniel Jones!!!!!

After all this procrastinating, the front office's big future plan at quarterback ends up being a guy who completed less than 60% of his passes and threw for just 8,201 YDS in his 3 seasons as a starter at an ACC doormat. But hey at least he's tall, wooed Gettleman with some throws at a non-contact Senior Bowl practice and was coached by Peyton Manning's old throwing guru!!! Best part of all this? They used the #6 overall pick on this low upside, "looks the part" prospect because the Redskins floated out a bogus story that they were considering trading up into the top 10 to select Jones. As a result of this trickery, the Giants became nervous Jones wasn't going to be there when they picked again at #17 and took a prospect that literally nobody else coveted in the top 10. Getting played by an organization that's as notoriously dysfunctional as the Redskins is quite possibly the most embarrassing thing that can happen to a front office (except for taking Brock Osweiler Jr. in the top 10 of course).

-A side effect of this Gettleman-induced mess that seems to be getting buried whenever the Giants are being discussed is the burden that's being putting on Pat Shurmur. While I don't think Shurmur is a strong enough leader or inventive enough playcaller to be a good NFL head coach, he's also being set up for failure at every turn. Only a once-in-a-generation virtuoso could manage to manufacture a functional piece of machinery out of the big pile of garbage the shot callers in the team box have put in front of him. If they want to give Jones a chance to succeed, they should do the right thing and fire this poor guy before the start of next year. Forcing a quarterback with questionable talent to learn a new offense every season is a time-tested recipe for failure in this league that should be avoided whenever possible.
         
-If there wasn't enough negativity surrounding the 2019 Giants after their head-scratching offseason, look at the unrelenting hell that's broken loose in the past few weeks. Within the first 48 hours of training camp, top wideout Sterling Shepard had broken his thumb, Tate got suspended for 4 games after failing a drug test, wild card receiver Corey Coleman tore his ACL and a video of Jones throwing a screen pass to his new favorite target otherwise known as the grass had surfaced. They've also had to deal with a disturbing off-the-field matter after safety Kamrin Moore got arrested for assault after he allegedly knocked a woman out. Since he's not good enough to evade discipline a la Tyreek Hill, he's been suspended indefinitely while the police investigation takes place. To put it simply, they've already experienced enough bad omens to fill an entire season and I expect the football gods to continue to punish them moving forward.

-I've been really mean to the Giants throughout this piece, so how about we ends things with some positive thoughts?

-The offensive line should be much better!  As I mentioned earlier, Zeitler is an incredible guard,  Will Hernandez quietly had a very nice rookie season and Nate Solder rebounded with an excellent finish to 2018 (1 sack and 13 pressures allowed in the final 8 games) after a VERY ugly start to his time in East Rutherford. Also Ereck Flowers is nowhere to be found, which is probably the best piece of news Giants fans have received in the last few years.

-Naturally with an improved line and OBJ gone, Saquon Barkley is being put in a position to have a monstrous season. After posting a rookie record 2,028 scrimmage YDS (which also led the NFL)behind a relatively weak offensive line last year, it's not a stretch to think he can clear 2,500+ YDS with even more opportunities and better blocking in front of him. Barkley is elusive enough as a runner to fight through stacked boxes, versatile enough as a pass-catcher to line up all over the field and fast enough to take any ball he touches to the house. This kid has all the tools to be a special player in this league for as long as his body allows him to be and hopefully he'll be just as much of a treat to watch this year as he was during his electric rookie campaign.  

                   -Their young secondary pieces are very intriguing! I felt DeAndre Baker was the best cover corner in this year's draft, new acquisition Jabrill Peppers is a freakishly athletic swiss army knife that dramatically improved his all-around game last season and while definitely raw, rookie Julian Love has the physicality, ball skills and fluid movement to succeed in the pros if he receives the right coaching.

-If he can repeat the brilliant marksmanship he showed in 2018 (32/33 FG), Aldrick Rosas should be considered a top 5 kicker after this season!

Bottom Line:
They're doomed. 

Philadelphia Eagles
2018 Record: 9-7 (2nd in NFC East)
Head Coach: Doug Pederson (4th season)
Notable Additions: DT Malik Jackson, ILB Zach Brown, RB Jordan Howard
Notable Departures: QB Nick Foles, DE Michael Bennett, WR Golden Tate
-In what has to be comforting news to both the organization and Eagles fans around the globe, Carson Wentz is 100% healthy heading into this season. 2018 was a brutal year for Wentz where he looked rusty and visibly uncomfortable as a result of sitting out an entire offseason program while he rehabbed from the ACL tear he suffered in December 2017. His nightmare season came to a premature end when he sustained a back injury in Week 14 that kept him out through the playoffs.

Now the burning question is whether or not he can get back to the MVP form he displayed in 2017 before the ACL tear. The absurd, effortless-looking on-the run throws, toughness he displayed to break out of piles/absorb huge hits in order to make a throw and confidence he displayed running this uptempo, vertical attack made him a must-watch every week. If that electric playmaking ability returns in full and he can pick up where he left off with the likes of Zach Ertz, Alshon Jeffrey and Nelson Agholor, the Eagles are going to be really hard to stop.

However, you also have to consider the very real possibility that Wentz is either going to never regain that mobility that drove his game and/or suffer another injury. The frantic way he plays the position makes him susceptible to huge hits and given his advanced age (26 going on 27) relative to how long he's been in the league (4 years), he holds a higher risk of his skills deteriorating with each ailment he suffers. For a guy who relies a lot on escaping the pocket and pushing the ball downfield, the prospect of losing the speed and fluid lateral movement that allows him to do that is a scary proposition. I believe that Wentz is polished enough of a pocket passer and smart enough of a player to make the necessary adjustments to his game to preserve himself for the long haul, but there's no guarantee he'll be willing to make them-especially coming off of an underwhelming season where he was playing at less than 100%.        

-Despite Wentz's clean bill of health entering the season, the departure of Nick Foles shouldn't be taken lightly. Having a backup that was familiar with the system, delivered in big situations and won a Lombardi for a long-suffering franchise was a luxury that was never going to last forever, but his departure couldn't have come at a worse time. Wentz has finished each of the last 2 seasons on the sideline and not having a guy like Foles to fall back on if he suffers a setback with his back/knee or an entirely new injury destroys the unusual solace that had existed in the past when he was forced of the lineup.

Adding to the gloom surrounding Foles' exit from the Eagles is who could possibly replace him. The current expectation is that incumbent 3rd stringer Nate Sudfield and new addition Cody Kessler will be duking it out for the top backup spot. Both options are about as inspiring as a life advice speech from your drunk uncle at the family cookout. Sudfield has only thrown 25 passes in 3 NFL seasons and Kessler, who is believed to have the edge thanks to his bit of starting experience (8 games with the Browns in 2016, 4 with the Jaguars last year), is an ultraconservative game manager that is a less than ideal fit for Doug Pederson's high-flying scheme. Clearly the Eagles are going to hope their very good offensive line and some time away from the field will be enough to keep Wentz healthy, but the worry that he will go down and what could happen if he does will undoubtedly be lurking in the minds of everyone that cares about this franchise all season long.      

-If Dave Gettleman ever wants to take notes on how a GM is supposed to go about constructing a team, he should no look no further than the guy running the show for his team's hated rival. Howie Roseman used the draft and free agency this year to make a series of solid, savvy investments along the interior line (Hassan Ridgeway, Malik Jackson-who should thrive playing next to Fletcher Cox), backfield (Jordan Horward, Miles Sanders), inside linebacker (Zach Brown) and receiving corps (Desean Jackson, J.J. Arcega-Whiteside) that fit the identity of his team perfectly (fast, dynamic offense, nasty, hard-nosed defense). He even brought in a tackle (Andre Dillard) for the great Jason Peters to mentor before he retires within the next couple of years. Is everything perfect? Of course not. Their corner group is still a little shaky even after the re-signing of Ronald Darby, swapping out Michael Bennett for Vinny Curry is a pretty significant downgrade on the edge and the aforementioned backup quarterback situation is kind of terrifying, but Roseman still did a damn fine job of adding depth, getting good value in the draft, addressing a lot of the problems on the roster and prioritizing which of their own free agents they could afford to re-sign (choosing to re-up on Brandon Graham over Jordan Hicks and Golden Tate). The Eagles have amassed a tremendous arsenal of talent on both sides of the ball under Roseman's watch without ever getting into cap hell and these small tweaks they made in the offseason should only make them a more lethal force in 2019.            

Bottom Line:
With a deep, veteran-filled roster and healthy Carson Wentz under center, the Eagles are in a terrific spot to contend for a title in 2019.

Washington Redskins
2018 Record: 7-9 (3rd in NFC East)
Head Coach: Jay Gruden (6th season)
Notable Additions: S Landon Collins, CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, ILB Jon Bostic
Notable Departures: OLB Preston Smith, ILB Zach Brown, S HaHa Clinton-Dix 
-Even with the encouraging progress he's made of late, there's still a very real chance Alex Smith never plays again. He almost lost his leg as a result of infections stemming from the surgery required to repair the compound and spiral tibia/fibula fractures he suffered last November. While obviously the 'Skins will be rooting for Smith to return in the future, they also understood that football is  business and they needed to begin considering other options at the position right away.

They ultimately went the route that many QB-needy teams go by bringing in a veteran (Case Keenum) to serve as a possible stopgap starter and a rookie (Dwayne Haskins) that could prove to be the team's long-term option at the position. Keenum fell back down to mediocrity with the Broncos in 2018 after a stunningly successful 2017 campaign in which he led the Vikings to the NFC Championship Game, but he's a completely capable fill-in guy that doesn't tend to turn the ball over a ton (except for last year where he threw 15 INT's, which tied for 2nd most in the league) . As for Haskins, he only started for 1 year in college and faced next to no adversity on a great Ohio State team that had a tremendous offensive line, but flashed impressive accuracy (70% CMP), good decisionmaking and a strong pocket presence that made him an intriguing NFL prospect. The battle for the starting job appears to be a true competition that will be fascinating to monitor as camp progresses.

-Whoever ends up winning the starting QB job is going to be stuck with a pretty questionable group of receivers. While the Redskins haven't exactly been flush with talented pass-catches of late, their already dire situation got even worse with the departures of wideouts Jamison Crowder and Maurice Harris in free agency. Now, they're left with a group of misfits made up of injury-prone guys that can produce when healthy (Jordan Reed, Paul Richardson), notable draft busts (Josh Doctson, Brian Quick), a couple of rookies (Terry McLurin, Kelvin Harmon) and the somehow still active Vernon Davis. Reed, Richardson, McLurin and Doctson-who is in a contract year after the team declined his 5th year option- are currently penciled in as the top dogs on the depth chart, but I'm going to go out on a limb and say that could change radically by the team the season rolls around.

Of the many unproven commodities within this group, McLurin makes for an interesting wild card-especially if his college teammate Haskins gets the job. McLurin's combo of speed, sharp route running and strong workouts allowed his stock to rise throughout the pre-draft process and it's entirely possible that he'll much more productive with the consistent reps that he never got during his time at Ohio State. Luckily for him, there appears to be no danger of him not getting ample opportunities to prove himself this season as part of a receiving corps that will likely need all the help it can get.

-It'll be interesting to see how much sophomore running back Derrius Guice ends up being used this year. Guice garnered a lot of positive buzz throughout OTA's/training camp last year and figured to be the team's bellcow until he tore his ACL in the 1st preseason game. In his absence, Adrian Peterson took over as starter and miraculously put together his 1st 1,000+ yard rushing campaign since 2015. AP's solid 2018 provides a level of muddiness to the backfield situation in Washington now that Guice is back in the fold.

Guice was clearly drafted to be the top back and has a level of versatility that greatly exceeds Peterson's, but AP demonstrated last year that he could still produce in the NFL in his mid 30's and it wouldn't be a surprise to see him start the year as the feature back to take some pressure off the 23-year old as he preps for his 1st dose of meaningful NFL action. Barring a notable breakout for Guice or age-showing slump from the 34-year old Peterson, an even timeshare seems like a pretty likely result in what figures to be a run-heavy attack.

-The front office braintrust of Bruce Allen, Doug Williams and owner Dan Snyder made one of the biggest splashes of free agency when they inked safety Landon Collins to a 6 year/$84 mil ($44.5 mil guaranteed) deal. A premier box safety that's still a few years away from entering his prime is a huge get for a team whose problems stopping the run of late are well-documented.

Unfortunately for the 'Skins,  adding Collins was about the only positive this defense experienced this summer. Top pass-rusher Preston Smith left for the Packers, HaHa Clinton-Dix admitted to taking less money to sign with the Bears, and they bafflingly cut inside linebacker Zach Brown at the start of free agency after a terrific 2018 campaign.

Was Collins worth letting all those guys walk? Considering the lack of depth and consistency that existed within their D a year ago, probably not. Even if they decided to still sever ties with the aforementioned trio, that money would've been better served addressing the borderline crisis they have at corner alongside Josh Norman (sorry, I just don't believe 33-year old Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie is a viable starter anymore), some more quality run-defenders to sure up the front 7 and maybe a solid veteran edge rusher to take some of the burden off of Ryan Kerrigan instead of landing a lone blue chip player. With a thinner talent pool and no real strengths to speak of, a finish lower than the nearly universal middle of the road rankings (15th in scoring defense, 15th in passing yards allowed, 17th in rushing yards allowed) they posted in 2018 seems probable for Greg Manusky's troops.

-Topping the lengthy list of red flags for the Redskins this year has got to be the ongoing holdout of left tackle Trent Williams. Williams has his voiced his complaints about his pay as well as the medical staff after they misdiagnosed an illness that eventually resulted in him getting a growth removed from his head last spring and vowed to not play another down for the organization until these issues are resolved. On a team that has been mired in dysfunction and lingering question marks for much of this decade, Williams has provided reliable excellence at an incredibly important position since he was drafted in 2010. Not having him there during a season where they have a new quarterback under center and head coach Jay Gruden's job could be on the line would be devastating for a team that's low on proven veteran talent at the moment.            

Bottom Line:
There's a chance they could surprise if they can get decent quarterback play, but their lack of proven playmakers and depth on both sides of the ball makes it hard to be optimistic about the Redskins in 2019.

Projected Standings:
1.Philadelphia Eagles (11-5)
2.Dallas Cowboys (9-7)
3.Washington Redskins (5-11)
4.New York Giants (4-12)

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