Chicago Bears
2018 Record: 12-4 (1st in NFC North)
Head Coach: Matt Nagy (2nd season)
Notable Additions: S HaHa Clinton-Dix, CB Buster Skrine, WR/KR Cordarrelle Patterson
Notable Departures: S Adrian Amos, CB Bryce Callahan, RB Jordan Howard
-2019 is going to be the year where Mitch Trubisky has to prove what he's really made of. The excuses for his so-so play over the past 2 seasons have all been exhausted. His receiving corps (Allen Robinson, Anthony Miller, Taylor Gabriel, Trey Burton) is functional, his offensive line is good, his already talented group of running backs got more versatile this offseason with the additions of a pair of capable-receiving power backs (Mike Davis, rookie David Montgomery) to put alongside burgeoning scatback extraordinaire Tarik Cohen and most importantly, he doesn't have a new system to learn going into this season. His solid performance in the heartbreaking playoff loss against the Eagles, particularly when drove his team into easily makeable field goal range with 1 timeout and 48 seconds left, was a great example of the immense promise that made him the #2 pick in the draft back in 2017. However, he's going to need to display a lot more confidence in his decisionmaking and consistent accuracy on his throws if he wants to blossom into a successful starter in the NFL. The analytics junkies and scouts seem to think a breakout is on the horizon because of his dual-threat skill set and Andy Reid disciple Matt Nagy's role in developing him. I'm going to go into the season with a heavy dose of skepticism mixed with a dash of cautious optimism about his ability to make this difficult leap.
-Vic Fangio finally getting a shot to be a head coach wasn't at all surprising considering the way Bears defense dominated in 2018. Even though the writing was on the wall, it didn't make his departure sting any less. Fangio helped transform this group from a complete liability to a terrifying wrecking crew over the course of his 4 years as DC. He played an integral part in the development of Kyle Fuller, Eddie Jackson and the recently departed Adrian Amos while also establishing a sense of toughness and discipline that this franchise known for their great defenses completely lost during the Marc Trestman/Mel Tucker years.
Filling the shoes of the game's best defensive coordinator is a brutal and damn near impossible task. Luckily Nagy and GM Ryan Pace found about as solid as a replacement as they possibly could in Chuck Pagano. While Pagano hasn't served as a coordinator since 2011 and was out of coaching last year after getting fired by the Colts following the 2017 season, his strong pedigree from his time as a college defensive backs coach to his last stint as an assistant with the Ravens is strong enough for me to believe there won't be a whole lot of rust to shake off. Plus having a group that is so talented throughout its ranks even after the departures of Amos and Bryce Callahan in free agency gives you a serious advantage when you're trying to get back into the rhythm of coaching and establish a new system. As long as he doesn't run the defensive equivalent of the Swinging Gate play and can prevent new slot corner Buster Skrine from getting a zillion holding/pass interference penalties per game, Pagano should fare just fine in Chicago.
-Normally I don't dedicate an entire portion of a team preview to kicking, but the Bears perpetual nightmares at the position are too abnormal and vital to the trajectory of their season to ignore. As a fan of the team, what happens at kicker scares me even more than the development of Trubisky and the defense's ability to dominate without Fangio at coordinator heading into 2019. Following the inevitable Cody Parkey shank that joined Blair Walsh and Billy Cundiff's moments of season-ending infamy in the top tier of the Missed Field Goal Hall of Fame, I'm more convinced than ever that Ryan Pace's decision to prematurely cut ties with stud kicker Robbie Gould prior to the start of the 2016 season has put a hex on anyone that the Bears bring into play kicker. The poor souls they enlisted (Eddy Pinero and Elliott Fry) to compete for the thankless job of being the guy who follows the asshole responsible for crushing the dreams of a fanbase that hadn't gotten to bask in the majesty of playoff football since 2010 are probably both going to stink something fierce and make me continue to wish the position was abolished anytime someone with an orange C on their helmet goes out tomiss attempt a kick. Nothing would make me happier than for Pinero or Fry to put a stop to this vicious cycle of suffering, but my obsessive compulsive ass knows that it would be the most Bears thing in the world to have their 1st possible contending team in over a decade fail to reach their potential because of a fucking kicker.
-2019 is going to be the year where Mitch Trubisky has to prove what he's really made of. The excuses for his so-so play over the past 2 seasons have all been exhausted. His receiving corps (Allen Robinson, Anthony Miller, Taylor Gabriel, Trey Burton) is functional, his offensive line is good, his already talented group of running backs got more versatile this offseason with the additions of a pair of capable-receiving power backs (Mike Davis, rookie David Montgomery) to put alongside burgeoning scatback extraordinaire Tarik Cohen and most importantly, he doesn't have a new system to learn going into this season. His solid performance in the heartbreaking playoff loss against the Eagles, particularly when drove his team into easily makeable field goal range with 1 timeout and 48 seconds left, was a great example of the immense promise that made him the #2 pick in the draft back in 2017. However, he's going to need to display a lot more confidence in his decisionmaking and consistent accuracy on his throws if he wants to blossom into a successful starter in the NFL. The analytics junkies and scouts seem to think a breakout is on the horizon because of his dual-threat skill set and Andy Reid disciple Matt Nagy's role in developing him. I'm going to go into the season with a heavy dose of skepticism mixed with a dash of cautious optimism about his ability to make this difficult leap.
-Vic Fangio finally getting a shot to be a head coach wasn't at all surprising considering the way Bears defense dominated in 2018. Even though the writing was on the wall, it didn't make his departure sting any less. Fangio helped transform this group from a complete liability to a terrifying wrecking crew over the course of his 4 years as DC. He played an integral part in the development of Kyle Fuller, Eddie Jackson and the recently departed Adrian Amos while also establishing a sense of toughness and discipline that this franchise known for their great defenses completely lost during the Marc Trestman/Mel Tucker years.
Filling the shoes of the game's best defensive coordinator is a brutal and damn near impossible task. Luckily Nagy and GM Ryan Pace found about as solid as a replacement as they possibly could in Chuck Pagano. While Pagano hasn't served as a coordinator since 2011 and was out of coaching last year after getting fired by the Colts following the 2017 season, his strong pedigree from his time as a college defensive backs coach to his last stint as an assistant with the Ravens is strong enough for me to believe there won't be a whole lot of rust to shake off. Plus having a group that is so talented throughout its ranks even after the departures of Amos and Bryce Callahan in free agency gives you a serious advantage when you're trying to get back into the rhythm of coaching and establish a new system. As long as he doesn't run the defensive equivalent of the Swinging Gate play and can prevent new slot corner Buster Skrine from getting a zillion holding/pass interference penalties per game, Pagano should fare just fine in Chicago.
-Normally I don't dedicate an entire portion of a team preview to kicking, but the Bears perpetual nightmares at the position are too abnormal and vital to the trajectory of their season to ignore. As a fan of the team, what happens at kicker scares me even more than the development of Trubisky and the defense's ability to dominate without Fangio at coordinator heading into 2019. Following the inevitable Cody Parkey shank that joined Blair Walsh and Billy Cundiff's moments of season-ending infamy in the top tier of the Missed Field Goal Hall of Fame, I'm more convinced than ever that Ryan Pace's decision to prematurely cut ties with stud kicker Robbie Gould prior to the start of the 2016 season has put a hex on anyone that the Bears bring into play kicker. The poor souls they enlisted (Eddy Pinero and Elliott Fry) to compete for the thankless job of being the guy who follows the asshole responsible for crushing the dreams of a fanbase that hadn't gotten to bask in the majesty of playoff football since 2010 are probably both going to stink something fierce and make me continue to wish the position was abolished anytime someone with an orange C on their helmet goes out to
-Looking at the Bears on paper, it's hard to not be excited about what 2019 could bring. Their offense should improve in their 2nd season under the direction of a sharp, inventive playcaller like Nagy, the corps of their locker room seems to understand that they only have a short window to compete for a Lombardi and as I just stated above, a coordinator change and the loss of a pair of starters isn't likely going to be enough to sink a unit that was so consistently dominant a year ago. At the same time, there are a couple of things that make me hesitant to completely buy into this team as a top-tier contender. The Bears pulled out a number of close, ugly games a year ago against middling-to-poor competition (Cardinals, 49ers, Lions) as a result of their offensive inconsistency and their schedule, which includes dates with the Saints, Chiefs, Chargers, Cowboys and Rams, is easily among the toughest in the league. Is there enough talent on this team to overcome these obstacles? Of course, but the tougher road to even get back to the point they reached a year ago can not be downplayed.
Bottom Line:
While a bit of a regression from last season seems probable, the Bears should be in the mix in the NFC once again.
While a bit of a regression from last season seems probable, the Bears should be in the mix in the NFC once again.
Detroit Lions
2018 Record: 6-10 (4th in NFC North)
Head Coach: Matt Patricia (2nd season)
Notable Additions: DE Trey Flowers, DE/DT Mike Daniels, CB Justin Coleman
Notable Departures: DE Ezekiel Ansah, G T.J Lang (retired), S Glover Quin (retired)
-The 1st year of Matt Patricia's regime was pretty much a disaster. Several reports coming out of the locker room expressed how much the players hated his arrogant, tyrannical style of coaching. His former boss Bill Belichick can get away with the cocky, over-the-top hardo routine because of his unprecedented resume and the reputation that comes with it. When you're a 1st time head coach who has yet to accomplish anything on your own, that shit isn't going to fly. This Belichick Jr. approach yielded horrific results for Josh McDaniels in Denver and it's not likely to turn out any different for Patricia in Detroit if he continues to keeps this shtick up.
If he's serious about trying to turn this team around, he's going to have to show some humility, dial back his intensity a bit and get serious about establishing a program that players want to buy into. His job security as well the longtime health of this perpetually reeling franchise depends on it.
-While they've had a number of terrific players (current top corner Darius Slay, just departed edge rusher Ezekiel Ansah, recently retired safety Glover Quin, Ndamukong Suh, DeAndre Levy) this decade, the Lions have never really had a defense that's been feared on the whole during this period. That could very well change this season.
Adding Trey Flowers gives them another excellent run defender along their damn near impenetrable defensive line (Damon Harrison, Da'Shawn Hand, fellow new addition Mike Daniels) while also providing them with a reliable pass-rushing presence that should help soften the blow of Ansah's departure, solid vet Justin Coleman could very well solve the #2 corner problem that has plagued them over the past few seasons and if he can pick up the playbook quickly, Daniels could prove to be a massive get after the Packers surprisingly cut him at the start of camp. Their poor linebacking corps led by likely draft bust Jarrad Davis on the inside and unproven safeties (converted corner Quandre Diggs, special team contributor Miles Killebrew, rookie Wil Harris) are definitely a bit worrisome, but there's enough talent elsewhere to potentially cover up some of those problems and allow this group finish the year as a top 10 scoring defense.
-From top to bottom, this Lions offense could be the best they've had since Calvin Johnson retired. Their starting WR's (Kenny Golladay, Marvin Jones Jr.) is without question among the most accomplished duos in the league, Kerryon Johnson looks like he might have what it takes to finally snap their decades-long curse at the RB position, rookie T.J. Hockensen is the most lauded tight end prospect to enter the league in over a decade and even after a rough 2018 where he failed to throw for 4,000 YDS, Matthew Stafford remains a solid veteran QB option that can absolutely torch defenses when he's on his game.
The talent may be intriguing, but it remains to be seen whether or not new offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell will be able to get the most out of them. Bevell's raw numbers were quite good during his time with the Seahawks, leading them to a top 4-11 scoring offense in 5 of his 7 seasons with the team. However, a deeper dive into the stats reveal that the defense was largely responsible for those impressive scoring outputs as they finished in the middle of the pack in offensive yardage in 3 of those 5 seasons. Bevell's also not known for being a particularly creative playcaller and he's still yet to live down the baffling decision to not hand the ball off to Marshwn Lynch on the goal line during Super Bowl 49. Clearly Jim Bob Cooter needed to be axed after leading this group to bottom 10 finishes in total yards and scoring in 2 of the 3 past seasons, but there's also no guarantee that Bevell can come in and provide the spark this group needs to reach their massive potential.
-Adding to the possible hiccups in their plan to become a top-tier offense is their line. This group was about as average as it gets in 2018 allowing 41 sacks (tied for 14th in the league), ranking 15th in run blocking efficiency and grading out as the 16th best line in the league overall according to Pro Football Focus. With T.J. Lang officially retiring after missing the final 10 games of 2018 with a slew of injuries, the group that closed out last season (Taylor Decker and Ricky Wagner at tackle, Kenny Wiggins, Frank Ragnow and Graham Glasgow on the inside) will be returning in full.
There's a belief that they'll improve with 2018 1st round pick Ragnow shifting back to his natural position of center after struggling as a guard during his rookie season, but I'm not really buying that simply switching where Ragnow and Glasgow play on the line is going to suddenly allow this group to elevate from their average status. Both of these guys were the weak links on the line last year and they're still playing on the interior, so why would anything be radically different in 2019? If Ragnow and Glasgow somehow play even worse in 2018, this group could possibly turn into a flat-out liability, which in turn would create even more problems for a team trying to re-establish itself as a competitive team.
Bottom Line:
Matt Patricia is still a jackass Belichick wannabe, so I'm not particularly confident that this team will be able to avoid finishing last in the NFC North again.
-The 1st year of Matt Patricia's regime was pretty much a disaster. Several reports coming out of the locker room expressed how much the players hated his arrogant, tyrannical style of coaching. His former boss Bill Belichick can get away with the cocky, over-the-top hardo routine because of his unprecedented resume and the reputation that comes with it. When you're a 1st time head coach who has yet to accomplish anything on your own, that shit isn't going to fly. This Belichick Jr. approach yielded horrific results for Josh McDaniels in Denver and it's not likely to turn out any different for Patricia in Detroit if he continues to keeps this shtick up.
If he's serious about trying to turn this team around, he's going to have to show some humility, dial back his intensity a bit and get serious about establishing a program that players want to buy into. His job security as well the longtime health of this perpetually reeling franchise depends on it.
-While they've had a number of terrific players (current top corner Darius Slay, just departed edge rusher Ezekiel Ansah, recently retired safety Glover Quin, Ndamukong Suh, DeAndre Levy) this decade, the Lions have never really had a defense that's been feared on the whole during this period. That could very well change this season.
Adding Trey Flowers gives them another excellent run defender along their damn near impenetrable defensive line (Damon Harrison, Da'Shawn Hand, fellow new addition Mike Daniels) while also providing them with a reliable pass-rushing presence that should help soften the blow of Ansah's departure, solid vet Justin Coleman could very well solve the #2 corner problem that has plagued them over the past few seasons and if he can pick up the playbook quickly, Daniels could prove to be a massive get after the Packers surprisingly cut him at the start of camp. Their poor linebacking corps led by likely draft bust Jarrad Davis on the inside and unproven safeties (converted corner Quandre Diggs, special team contributor Miles Killebrew, rookie Wil Harris) are definitely a bit worrisome, but there's enough talent elsewhere to potentially cover up some of those problems and allow this group finish the year as a top 10 scoring defense.
-From top to bottom, this Lions offense could be the best they've had since Calvin Johnson retired. Their starting WR's (Kenny Golladay, Marvin Jones Jr.) is without question among the most accomplished duos in the league, Kerryon Johnson looks like he might have what it takes to finally snap their decades-long curse at the RB position, rookie T.J. Hockensen is the most lauded tight end prospect to enter the league in over a decade and even after a rough 2018 where he failed to throw for 4,000 YDS, Matthew Stafford remains a solid veteran QB option that can absolutely torch defenses when he's on his game.
The talent may be intriguing, but it remains to be seen whether or not new offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell will be able to get the most out of them. Bevell's raw numbers were quite good during his time with the Seahawks, leading them to a top 4-11 scoring offense in 5 of his 7 seasons with the team. However, a deeper dive into the stats reveal that the defense was largely responsible for those impressive scoring outputs as they finished in the middle of the pack in offensive yardage in 3 of those 5 seasons. Bevell's also not known for being a particularly creative playcaller and he's still yet to live down the baffling decision to not hand the ball off to Marshwn Lynch on the goal line during Super Bowl 49. Clearly Jim Bob Cooter needed to be axed after leading this group to bottom 10 finishes in total yards and scoring in 2 of the 3 past seasons, but there's also no guarantee that Bevell can come in and provide the spark this group needs to reach their massive potential.
-Adding to the possible hiccups in their plan to become a top-tier offense is their line. This group was about as average as it gets in 2018 allowing 41 sacks (tied for 14th in the league), ranking 15th in run blocking efficiency and grading out as the 16th best line in the league overall according to Pro Football Focus. With T.J. Lang officially retiring after missing the final 10 games of 2018 with a slew of injuries, the group that closed out last season (Taylor Decker and Ricky Wagner at tackle, Kenny Wiggins, Frank Ragnow and Graham Glasgow on the inside) will be returning in full.
There's a belief that they'll improve with 2018 1st round pick Ragnow shifting back to his natural position of center after struggling as a guard during his rookie season, but I'm not really buying that simply switching where Ragnow and Glasgow play on the line is going to suddenly allow this group to elevate from their average status. Both of these guys were the weak links on the line last year and they're still playing on the interior, so why would anything be radically different in 2019? If Ragnow and Glasgow somehow play even worse in 2018, this group could possibly turn into a flat-out liability, which in turn would create even more problems for a team trying to re-establish itself as a competitive team.
Bottom Line:
Matt Patricia is still a jackass Belichick wannabe, so I'm not particularly confident that this team will be able to avoid finishing last in the NFC North again.
Green Bay Packers
2018 Record: 6-9-1 (3rd in NFC North)
Head Coach: Matt LaFluer (1st season)
Notable Additions: S Adrian Amos, OLB Preston Smith, OLB Za'Darius Smith
Notable Departures: DE/DT Mike Daniels, WR Randall Cobb, OLB Clay Matthews
-It was no secret that Mike McCarthy and Aaron Rodgers didn't get along. There was years of speculation from national reporters/anonymous team sources that hinted at their mutual disdain for each other and even a lengthy piece on Bleacher Report that detailed the insane power struggle that existed between them which was headlined by the revelation that Rodgers would often go rogue and ignore McCarthy's playcalls-leaving young receivers looking to earn playing time as well as favor with their QB in an ugly lose-lose situation. McCarthy was finally relieved of his coaching duties last December after a 13 year run with the team that yielded a Lombardi in 2010, but his tenure will largely be viewed as a disappointment due to the inability to take full advantage of the generational talent he had at quarterback.
Any amateur sleuths that are eager to answer the burning question of who deserves the bigger slice of blame pie in the demise of the McCarthy/Rodgers relationship will have their eyes glued to the Lambeau Field sideline to look at the body language of the man tasked with getting the Packers back on track after missing the playoffs in back-to-back seasons. That man would be Matt LaFluer, a truly out-of-left-field hire that kicked off this offseason's "Hey, I know Sean McVay!!!!" HC hiring trend.
LaFluer's lone season running an offense that wasn't associated with McVay's wizardry generated pretty horrific results. His primitive HB draw and play action pass-driven scheme helped land the Titans deep in the basement of nearly every meaningful stat category (27th in scoring, 29th in passing offense, 23rd in redzone efficiency) you can think of that didn't involve running the ball or giveaways in 2018.
How is this hire going to be received by a QB like Rodgers that's currently being perceived as an ornery diva? Probably not great. McCarthy's notoriously conservative redzone playcalling drove Rodgers bonkers, an entire system driven by runs and quick dump-off passes might cause him to hang it up early. To be fair to LaFluer, it's entirely possible that he employed that short yardage-driven approach because of Marcus Mariota's limitations as a passer, but that doesn't change the fact that the ineffectiveness he displayed while with the Titans certainly does not inspire a whole lot of confidence about his transition to Green Bay.
Clearly the Packers are banking on this dynamic working. Rodgers is almost 36 and likely doesn't have a ton of time left as an otherworldly quarterback given his extensive injury history. Finding a sharp head coach that is able to properly utilize Rodgers' special skill set and can earn the signalcaller's trust and respect is nothing short of imperative. The front office better hope that Rodgers' public questioning of LaFluer's decision to hold joint practices with the Texans prior to the 1st preseason game isn't indicative of how their relationship is going to be moving forward.
-Rodgers may not be happy with the arrival of LaFluer, but you know who probably is: Aaron Jones. The elusive dual-threat back shined in 2018, racking up 934 scrimmage YDS and 9 TD's on just 159 touches in 12 games. With a run-heavy coach calling the offense and no serious competition behind him, Jones has a real chance to enjoy a breakout season in 2019. He's earned every right to become more of a focal point of the Packers offensive attack after making the most of his modest workload a year ago and scanning down the receiver depth chart, you could certainly argue that he's the most potent weapon on this offense outside of Davante Adams. As long as he can hold up to the physical rigors an increased role would bring, Jones could be in line for at least 1,400+ YDS.
-2nd year GM Brian Gutekunst went to great lengths to further prove he's nothing like his predecessor Ted Thompson by being incredibly active in free agency this offseason. Gutekunst wasted out absolutely no time spending their shareholder's dollars. By the time the 1st day of the new league year came to a close, he had inked safety Adiran Amos, guard Billy Turner and outside linebackers Preston and Za'Darius Smith to multi-year deals.
While their aggression to try and address their top problem areas is commendable, I felt these signings were a bizarre mixed bag comprised of moves that were either brilliant or inexplicable. His refined albeit non-flashy skill set at a very reasonable price tag (4 years/$36 mil/$12 mil guaranteed) made Amos a tremendous value in a safety market that got completely ludicrous after Landon Collins signed his record-breaking deal with the Redskins. Poaching him from the Bears made it an even sweeter deal for the Cheeseheads. Preston Smith, who was a consistently productive pass rusher during his 4 years with the Redskins, was a similarly savvy signing (4 years/$52 mi/$16 mil guaranteed) that should do well in Mike Pettine's blitz-happy scheme.
On the other side of the coin, sits Za'Darius Smith and Turner. Za'Darius Smith's 4 year, $66 million ($20 mil guaranteed) deal legitimately blew my mind. How does someone command this type of contract after posting an 8.5 sack season following a 2-year span where they got just 4.5??? Couldn't be my relatively high paid pass rusher.
Though the financial commitment was far lower (4 years/$28 mil/$9 mil guaranteed), Turner's signing miraculously managed to be an even bigger head-scratcher. This dude went from being a turnstile that got released before the end of his rookie deal in Miami to a pretty unreliable presence that started just 11 games (all of which were in 2018) during a 3 year stint with the Broncos. Now he gets a 4-year deal to be a starting guard on a line that has had its share of struggles protecting an injury-prone starting quarterback over the past few years? Just amazing. If Rodgers goes down clutching his chest after Mr. Turner gets his ass handed to him on a bull rush, that broken collarbone will be on your hands Brian.
-Releasing Mike Daniels right before camp started was just a puzzling move. Daniels' play did decline pretty significantly last year, but at a time of year when opening up cap space means next to nothing, why not keep him around to see if he can return to form? He's only 30 and the Packers defensive line outside of Kenny Clark isn't exactly overflowing with talent. Plus his leadership would've been valuable on a group that lost both Clay Matthews and Jake Ryan in free agency. Now they're left with a sizable void in their starting lineup along with their locker room with no real contingency plan in place. Making matters even worse? He signed with the division rival Lions, meaning there's no avoiding the blowback if he returns to being a top-notch run defender after a lone down season. They better hope that Clark, the Smith's and at least one of their many young players (Blake Martinez or Kyler Fackrell perhaps?) really steps up this year and makes people forget that Daniels is gone. Otherwise, this already pretty mediocre front as well as their promising, but VERY young secondary could be in serious trouble.
Bottom Line:
The great unknown of Matt LaFluer and how Aaron Rodgers will be respond to his coaching makes the Packers difficult to project. A division win or yet another mediocre season seem equally likely.
-It was no secret that Mike McCarthy and Aaron Rodgers didn't get along. There was years of speculation from national reporters/anonymous team sources that hinted at their mutual disdain for each other and even a lengthy piece on Bleacher Report that detailed the insane power struggle that existed between them which was headlined by the revelation that Rodgers would often go rogue and ignore McCarthy's playcalls-leaving young receivers looking to earn playing time as well as favor with their QB in an ugly lose-lose situation. McCarthy was finally relieved of his coaching duties last December after a 13 year run with the team that yielded a Lombardi in 2010, but his tenure will largely be viewed as a disappointment due to the inability to take full advantage of the generational talent he had at quarterback.
Any amateur sleuths that are eager to answer the burning question of who deserves the bigger slice of blame pie in the demise of the McCarthy/Rodgers relationship will have their eyes glued to the Lambeau Field sideline to look at the body language of the man tasked with getting the Packers back on track after missing the playoffs in back-to-back seasons. That man would be Matt LaFluer, a truly out-of-left-field hire that kicked off this offseason's "Hey, I know Sean McVay!!!!" HC hiring trend.
LaFluer's lone season running an offense that wasn't associated with McVay's wizardry generated pretty horrific results. His primitive HB draw and play action pass-driven scheme helped land the Titans deep in the basement of nearly every meaningful stat category (27th in scoring, 29th in passing offense, 23rd in redzone efficiency) you can think of that didn't involve running the ball or giveaways in 2018.
How is this hire going to be received by a QB like Rodgers that's currently being perceived as an ornery diva? Probably not great. McCarthy's notoriously conservative redzone playcalling drove Rodgers bonkers, an entire system driven by runs and quick dump-off passes might cause him to hang it up early. To be fair to LaFluer, it's entirely possible that he employed that short yardage-driven approach because of Marcus Mariota's limitations as a passer, but that doesn't change the fact that the ineffectiveness he displayed while with the Titans certainly does not inspire a whole lot of confidence about his transition to Green Bay.
Clearly the Packers are banking on this dynamic working. Rodgers is almost 36 and likely doesn't have a ton of time left as an otherworldly quarterback given his extensive injury history. Finding a sharp head coach that is able to properly utilize Rodgers' special skill set and can earn the signalcaller's trust and respect is nothing short of imperative. The front office better hope that Rodgers' public questioning of LaFluer's decision to hold joint practices with the Texans prior to the 1st preseason game isn't indicative of how their relationship is going to be moving forward.
-Rodgers may not be happy with the arrival of LaFluer, but you know who probably is: Aaron Jones. The elusive dual-threat back shined in 2018, racking up 934 scrimmage YDS and 9 TD's on just 159 touches in 12 games. With a run-heavy coach calling the offense and no serious competition behind him, Jones has a real chance to enjoy a breakout season in 2019. He's earned every right to become more of a focal point of the Packers offensive attack after making the most of his modest workload a year ago and scanning down the receiver depth chart, you could certainly argue that he's the most potent weapon on this offense outside of Davante Adams. As long as he can hold up to the physical rigors an increased role would bring, Jones could be in line for at least 1,400+ YDS.
-2nd year GM Brian Gutekunst went to great lengths to further prove he's nothing like his predecessor Ted Thompson by being incredibly active in free agency this offseason. Gutekunst wasted out absolutely no time spending their shareholder's dollars. By the time the 1st day of the new league year came to a close, he had inked safety Adiran Amos, guard Billy Turner and outside linebackers Preston and Za'Darius Smith to multi-year deals.
While their aggression to try and address their top problem areas is commendable, I felt these signings were a bizarre mixed bag comprised of moves that were either brilliant or inexplicable. His refined albeit non-flashy skill set at a very reasonable price tag (4 years/$36 mil/$12 mil guaranteed) made Amos a tremendous value in a safety market that got completely ludicrous after Landon Collins signed his record-breaking deal with the Redskins. Poaching him from the Bears made it an even sweeter deal for the Cheeseheads. Preston Smith, who was a consistently productive pass rusher during his 4 years with the Redskins, was a similarly savvy signing (4 years/$52 mi/$16 mil guaranteed) that should do well in Mike Pettine's blitz-happy scheme.
On the other side of the coin, sits Za'Darius Smith and Turner. Za'Darius Smith's 4 year, $66 million ($20 mil guaranteed) deal legitimately blew my mind. How does someone command this type of contract after posting an 8.5 sack season following a 2-year span where they got just 4.5??? Couldn't be my relatively high paid pass rusher.
Though the financial commitment was far lower (4 years/$28 mil/$9 mil guaranteed), Turner's signing miraculously managed to be an even bigger head-scratcher. This dude went from being a turnstile that got released before the end of his rookie deal in Miami to a pretty unreliable presence that started just 11 games (all of which were in 2018) during a 3 year stint with the Broncos. Now he gets a 4-year deal to be a starting guard on a line that has had its share of struggles protecting an injury-prone starting quarterback over the past few years? Just amazing. If Rodgers goes down clutching his chest after Mr. Turner gets his ass handed to him on a bull rush, that broken collarbone will be on your hands Brian.
-Releasing Mike Daniels right before camp started was just a puzzling move. Daniels' play did decline pretty significantly last year, but at a time of year when opening up cap space means next to nothing, why not keep him around to see if he can return to form? He's only 30 and the Packers defensive line outside of Kenny Clark isn't exactly overflowing with talent. Plus his leadership would've been valuable on a group that lost both Clay Matthews and Jake Ryan in free agency. Now they're left with a sizable void in their starting lineup along with their locker room with no real contingency plan in place. Making matters even worse? He signed with the division rival Lions, meaning there's no avoiding the blowback if he returns to being a top-notch run defender after a lone down season. They better hope that Clark, the Smith's and at least one of their many young players (Blake Martinez or Kyler Fackrell perhaps?) really steps up this year and makes people forget that Daniels is gone. Otherwise, this already pretty mediocre front as well as their promising, but VERY young secondary could be in serious trouble.
Bottom Line:
The great unknown of Matt LaFluer and how Aaron Rodgers will be respond to his coaching makes the Packers difficult to project. A division win or yet another mediocre season seem equally likely.
Minnesota Vikings
2018 Record: 8-7-1 (2nd in NFC North)
Head Coach: Mike Zimmer (6th season)
Notable Additions: G Josh Kline, QB Sean Mannion, WR Jordan Taylor
Notable Departures: DT Sheldon Richardson, T Mike Remmers, RB Latavius Murray
-The expectation was for the Vikings to be at the forefront of the list of NFC contenders a year ago after signing respected veteran starter Kirk Cousins in the aftermath of a season where they appeared in an NFC Championship Game with journeyman Case Keenum under center. That didn't come to fruition as the team went 8-7-1 and missed the playoffs after an embarrassing 24-10 Week 17 home loss to a Bears team that had already clinched the #3 seed.
To be fair, Cousins was far from the only problem the Vikings had during their underwhelming 2018. Their offense line was simply atrocious, there was an offensive coordinator change in the middle of the season and despite finishing as the 9th best scoring defense in the league (21.3 points per game allowed), they performed pretty poorly in several key games (Rams, Saints, Patriots) throughout the year. However, there's no denying that his reputation as a guy who feasts on inferior competition and struggles against good teams followed him from D.C. to the Twin Cities.
Cousins beat just 1 team that had a winning record (the Eagles in Week 5) last season and they were outscored by a combined total of 162-98 in their other 6 contests with playoff teams. For comparison's sake, they went 7-1-1 and had a scoring differential of 239-158 against teams with losing records. Putting up impressive raw stats (4,298 YDS, 10 INT's, career-high 30 TD's and 70.1 CMP%) and securing a bunch of blowout victories over 3-7 win teams isn't why he was given the league's 1st ever fully guaranteed contract (3 years/$84 mil). Rick Spielman brought him here because this team appeared to be just a QB away from being a serious Super Bowl Contender and if he can't beat this boogeyman that has prevented him from taking a leap into the realm of true greatness despite his pretty impressive set of intangibles (accuracy, decisionmaking, mobility, arm strength) and many flashes of brilliance he's displayed since he became a full-time starter back in 2015, the Vikings futility is going to continue. He has all of the weapons he could ask for with Adam Thielen, Stefon Diggs, Kyle Rudolph and rookie Irv Smith Jr. on the roster, now it's time for him to fully utilized them to try and shut the doubters up for good.
-I'll touch more on this in my fantasy draft columns next week, but why the hell is the Dalvin Cook hype train still chugging along at full steam? His stats, which aren't even all that impressive, are skewed because of a few big games (he only averaged 6 YDS per touch (2.9 YPC/9.1 YPR) in the 7 games where he failed to get over 100+ yards and only scored 4 total TD's last season), the guy has appeared in just 16 games in his 1st 2 seasons because of injury, he's got an extensive history of ball security issues and unless rookie center Garrett Bradbury and Josh Kline display HOF-caliber form right away, the Vikings o-line is still going to be a dumpster fire in 2019. He could very well turn into a respectable back if he can manage to stay healthy and stop the ball from exiting his hands so much, I'm just not buying into the superstar potential many people have been seeing in him since he entered the league.
-A pretty severe cap crunch prevented the Vikings from making a lot of moves in free agency. Whatever space they did have mostly went to re-signing Anthony Barr to a truly outrageous deal (5 years/$67.5 mil/$33 mil guaranteed) and inking Kline to a cost-effective 3-year deal worth up to $16 mil. Thankfully, the only real key piece they let walk as a result of their tight checkbook was Sheldon Richardson-who only spent a year with the team and was an undeniable luxury to have on a defensive line that was already loaded with high-end talent (Danielle Hunter, Linval Joseph, Everson Griffen).
This lack of fluctuation on the roster doesn't mean the Vikings didn't make any notable moves this season. They quietly added Gary Kubiak to their staff as an assistant head coach and offensive advisor in mid-January. While Kevin Stefanski remains the OC and will continue to handle playcalling duties, there's every expectation that Kubiak will have his fingerprints all over the scheme. His approach is a bit old-school in its reliance on the run, but he generated great results (8th in scoring, 8th in rushing, 13th in passing) during his last stint as a full-time coordinator with the Ravens in 2014. As trivial as this move may be seem on paper, Kubiak's presence on the staff could ultimately help the Vikings accomplish their goal of being one of the most feared offenses in the league.
Bottom Line:
-The expectation was for the Vikings to be at the forefront of the list of NFC contenders a year ago after signing respected veteran starter Kirk Cousins in the aftermath of a season where they appeared in an NFC Championship Game with journeyman Case Keenum under center. That didn't come to fruition as the team went 8-7-1 and missed the playoffs after an embarrassing 24-10 Week 17 home loss to a Bears team that had already clinched the #3 seed.
To be fair, Cousins was far from the only problem the Vikings had during their underwhelming 2018. Their offense line was simply atrocious, there was an offensive coordinator change in the middle of the season and despite finishing as the 9th best scoring defense in the league (21.3 points per game allowed), they performed pretty poorly in several key games (Rams, Saints, Patriots) throughout the year. However, there's no denying that his reputation as a guy who feasts on inferior competition and struggles against good teams followed him from D.C. to the Twin Cities.
Cousins beat just 1 team that had a winning record (the Eagles in Week 5) last season and they were outscored by a combined total of 162-98 in their other 6 contests with playoff teams. For comparison's sake, they went 7-1-1 and had a scoring differential of 239-158 against teams with losing records. Putting up impressive raw stats (4,298 YDS, 10 INT's, career-high 30 TD's and 70.1 CMP%) and securing a bunch of blowout victories over 3-7 win teams isn't why he was given the league's 1st ever fully guaranteed contract (3 years/$84 mil). Rick Spielman brought him here because this team appeared to be just a QB away from being a serious Super Bowl Contender and if he can't beat this boogeyman that has prevented him from taking a leap into the realm of true greatness despite his pretty impressive set of intangibles (accuracy, decisionmaking, mobility, arm strength) and many flashes of brilliance he's displayed since he became a full-time starter back in 2015, the Vikings futility is going to continue. He has all of the weapons he could ask for with Adam Thielen, Stefon Diggs, Kyle Rudolph and rookie Irv Smith Jr. on the roster, now it's time for him to fully utilized them to try and shut the doubters up for good.
-I'll touch more on this in my fantasy draft columns next week, but why the hell is the Dalvin Cook hype train still chugging along at full steam? His stats, which aren't even all that impressive, are skewed because of a few big games (he only averaged 6 YDS per touch (2.9 YPC/9.1 YPR) in the 7 games where he failed to get over 100+ yards and only scored 4 total TD's last season), the guy has appeared in just 16 games in his 1st 2 seasons because of injury, he's got an extensive history of ball security issues and unless rookie center Garrett Bradbury and Josh Kline display HOF-caliber form right away, the Vikings o-line is still going to be a dumpster fire in 2019. He could very well turn into a respectable back if he can manage to stay healthy and stop the ball from exiting his hands so much, I'm just not buying into the superstar potential many people have been seeing in him since he entered the league.
-A pretty severe cap crunch prevented the Vikings from making a lot of moves in free agency. Whatever space they did have mostly went to re-signing Anthony Barr to a truly outrageous deal (5 years/$67.5 mil/$33 mil guaranteed) and inking Kline to a cost-effective 3-year deal worth up to $16 mil. Thankfully, the only real key piece they let walk as a result of their tight checkbook was Sheldon Richardson-who only spent a year with the team and was an undeniable luxury to have on a defensive line that was already loaded with high-end talent (Danielle Hunter, Linval Joseph, Everson Griffen).
This lack of fluctuation on the roster doesn't mean the Vikings didn't make any notable moves this season. They quietly added Gary Kubiak to their staff as an assistant head coach and offensive advisor in mid-January. While Kevin Stefanski remains the OC and will continue to handle playcalling duties, there's every expectation that Kubiak will have his fingerprints all over the scheme. His approach is a bit old-school in its reliance on the run, but he generated great results (8th in scoring, 8th in rushing, 13th in passing) during his last stint as a full-time coordinator with the Ravens in 2014. As trivial as this move may be seem on paper, Kubiak's presence on the staff could ultimately help the Vikings accomplish their goal of being one of the most feared offenses in the league.
Bottom Line:
The Vikings are a talented, well-coached bunch whose fate will likely be determined by how well Kirk Cousins plays in his 2nd year with the team.
Projected Standings:
1.Chicago Bears (10-6)
2.Minnesota Vikings (10-6)
3.Green Bay Packers (8-8)
3.Green Bay Packers (8-8)
4.Detroit Lions (6-10)
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