Fantasy Football Sleeper Mania: 2019 Edition

Earlier this week, I focused on the overvalued high round picks that could blow up your season. Now, I turn my attention to the potential late round gems that are pivotal to just about every fantasy championship run. Here are my top sleepers heading into 2019.

Quarterback: Jameis Winston (Buccaneers) (ADP: Yahoo!: 118.3, ESPN: 159.5, NFL.com: 145.3)
A tendency to have a few multi-turnover games each season along with some accuracy problems has limited Winston's fantasy appeal over the past couple of years. However, 2019 may mark a return to glory for the Bucs gunslinger. Pairing an already lethal passing attack (#1 in the league last season) with a bright veteran coach in Bruce Arians that loves to air it out and the fact that Winston is playing for a new contract puts him on the QB1 radar as long as his INT total doesn't get too out of hand.
Honorable Mentions: Tom Brady (Patriots), Mitch Trubisky (Bears), Kirk Cousins (Vikings)
Deep Sleeper: Sam Darnold (Jets)

Running Back: Austin Ekeler (Chargers) (ADP: Yahoo!: 108.9, ESPN: 97.9, NFL.com: 123.1 )
If any training camp holdout ends up carrying over into the season, it's more than likely going to be Melvin Gordon. The Chargers are a notoriously stubborn organization that has no problem engaging in contract standoffs plus they have the luxury of having veteran backups that can step into starting lineup while Gordon's away from the team. The very real possibility that Gordon doesn't suit up for at least a portion of this season makes Ekeler a tremendous value at his current draft position. Running backs play a massive role in Ken Wisenhunt's offense and while he's not as elusive or powerful as Gordon, Ekeler boasts a similar versatility and should be productive enough to be a weekly RB2.
Honorable Mentions: Royce Freeman (Broncos), Darrell Henderson (Rams), Duke Johnson Jr. (Texans)
Deep Sleeper: Kallen Ballage (Dolphins)

Wide Receiver: Cortland Sutton (Broncos) (ADP: Yahoo!: 118.5 ESPN: 130.9 NFL.com: 133.7)
Joe Flacco may not be at his elite peak anymore, but the man still loves to sling the ball downfield. In his new home in Denver, the best bet to be on the other end of those frequent deep throws is Sutton. The SMU product quietly registered 42 REC/704 YD/4 TD during his rookie campaign last season, the competition behind him (Tim Patrick, DaSean Hamilton, rookie Noah Fant, 32-year old Emmanuel Sanders-who is coming of an Achilles tear) isn't particularly strong and early reports out of camp is that him and Flacco appear to be developing a strong rapport. If Sutton does end up becoming Flacco's preferred target, a 1,000+ yard season seems feasible.
Honorable Mentions: Dede Westbrook (Jaguars), John Brown (Bills), Golden Tate (Giants) 
Deep Sleeper: Kenny Stills (Dolphins)

Tight End: Mark Andrews (Ravens) (ADP: Yahoo!: 129.2, ESPN: 163.8, NFL.com: 145.4)
There's not single a late round player I covet this year more than Andrews. At a position with minimal depth, Andrews offers the ceiling of a 5th-6th round pick at a juncture of the draft where YOLO picks tend to reign supreme. The notable bump in production (13 REC, 308 YDS, 1 TD) he experienced in Lamar Jackson's 7 starts last season along with the advantage he has of being a holdover in a largely overhauled receiving corps makes him a formidable contender to emerge as the Ravens top receiving option in 2019.
Honorable Mentions: Vance McDonald (Steelers), Jack Doyle (Colts), Chris Herndon (Jets)
Deep Sleeper: Darren Waller (Raiders)

Defense/Special Teams: Cowboys (ADP: Yahoo!: 126.1, ESPN: 163.1, NFL.com: 136.6)
Takeaway totals are the only thing preventing each great real life defense I've mentioned here from being considered top-tier fantasy options. With their promising young defensive backs, the Cowboys have the best chance of anyone in this group of fixing that problem this season. Plus their front 7 is loaded and they have a number of very sketchy offenses on their schedule this season (Bills, Dolphins, Redskins, Giants).
Honorable Mentions: Bills, Colts, Broncos
Deep Sleeper: Titans 

2017 Fantasy Football Sleeper Mania

In the world of fantasy football, draft steals often play a pivotal role on the road to a championship. There's a whole lot of dart-throwing and blind faith involved in the quest to unearth a hidden gem in the back-end of the draft, but if you manage to land a productive player late, you will feel a borderline sad amount of pride and joy. Here are the group of guys that I believe are 2017's top, late-round (potential) studs.  

Quarterback: Derek Carr (Raiders) (Average Draft Position: Yahoo!: 102.4, ESPN: 118.8, NFL.Com: 92.7)

The lack of disrespect Derek Carr is receiving in fantasy circles this season is appalling. He is coming off a 28 TD, 6 INT season where he picked up legitimate MVP buzz and led the Raiders to their first playoff berth since 2002 yet he's still falling into the double-digit rounds in most drafts. With the Raiders plethora of lethal options in the passing game and his tendency to improve with each subsequent year in the league, Carr is a terrific pickup for anyone that likes to wait until the final 5-6 rounds of the draft to select a QB. 

Honorable Mentions: Kirk Cousins (Redskins), Matthew Stafford (Lions), Carson Wentz (Eagles)

Deep Rookie Sleeper : Mitch Trubisky (Bears)*

(Since no other rookie looks like they're going to get a shot at starting this season, Trubisky is getting this distinction by default.) 

Running Back: Bilal Powell (Jets) (ADP: Yahoo!: 100.8, ESPN: 50.6, NFL.com: 64.6)

The Jets dumpster fire at the quarterback and wide receiver position makes dual-threat back Powell, who has been very productive a complementary piece over the past few seasons, a near-lock to be the focal point of their rebuilding offense. As long as he can stay healthy, I think Powell will get enough volume on a weekly basis to finish as a top 10 back in both standard and PPR leagues. 

Honorable Mentions: Doug Martin (Buccaneers), Theo Riddick (Lions), Thomas Rawls (Seahawks) 

Deep Rookie Sleeper: Kareem Hunt (Chiefs)

Wide Receiver: Cameron Meredith (Bears) (ADP: Yahoo!: 101.3, ESPN: 92.8, NFL.com: 123.5) 

I initially had Pierre Garcon in this slot, but the wave of buzz that has surrounded him in the fantasy community (especially in PPR leagues) over the past few weeks has taken him out of the "sleeper" category in my mind. While Cameron Meredith is unlikely to emerge as the NFL's next prolific young WR, he's the type of guy that should be able to net you the type of consistent targets and production (a la what Kenny Britt did with the Rams last year) that you don't usually get out of a receiver that's going in the 9th-11th round range. 

Honorable Mentions: Rishard Matthews (Titans), Jeremy Maclin (Ravens), Marvin Jones Jr. (Lions)

Deep Rookie Sleeper: Cooper Kupp (Rams)

Tight End: Cameron Brate (Buccaneers) (ADP: Yahoo!: 131.0, ESPN: 177.2, NFL.com: 144.0)

While the Bucs spent a first round pick this year on tight end O.J. Howard, they're reportedly going to be primarily utilizing him as a blocker this season. As a result of this decision, Cameron Brate is now in position to have another nice season as the starting tight end for this upstart Buccaneers team. Brate emerged as Jameis Winston's favorite redzone target outside of Mike Evans last season and even if his nice TD total (8) from a year ago slightly declines, he'll still provide outstanding value at his current 12th-14th round draft slot.

Honorable Mentions: Jack Doyle (Colts), C.J. Fiedorowicz (Texans), Jesse James (Steelers)

Deep Rookie Sleeper: Evan Engram (Giants)

Defense: New York Giants (ADP: Yahoo!: 127.9, ESPN: 177.6, NFL.com: 102.3)

The Giants D impressed the hell out of me with their play down the stretch last season and with the abundance of playmakers they have scattered throughout their ranks, I believe they're going to blossom into a top-10 fantasy defense this season.

Honorable Mentions: Philadelphia Eagles, Baltimore Ravens, Los Angeles Chargers 

2016 Potential Fantasy Football Sleepers

Editor's Note: This post was originally written on August 3rd, but due to the uncertainty surrounding  Pittsburgh Steelers tight end Ladarius Green's availability going into the season, I decided to edit and re-post the piece.  

Fantasy football pundits and players across the country have a zillion different strategies that they claim will guarantee you a championship. Personally, I think a lot of these strategies are horseshit and that luck can often trump knowledge in this chaotic game. That being said, one of the only things that I believe is truly essential in the quest for fantasy football glory is late-round value picks (aka sleepers). Any asshole can select a productive player in the first few rounds, the success of your draft is truly determined by the last five or six rounds when your forced to take chances on under-the-radar, risky veteran or young, untested players. Getting players that put up excellent numbers late in the draft isn't a gamble that usually pays off, but when it does, it often leads to a league championship. Here are the guys that I believe could end up being the top sleeper picks of 2016.

Quarterback: Derek Carr (Raiders)(Average Draft Position: Yahoo!: 103.5 ESPN: 109.2 NFL.com: 110.2)
Carr made tremendous strides in 2015 after a solid rookie season in 2014, putting together a 3,987 YD/31 TD/13 INT campaign that led the Raiders out of the league's basement and made them one of the most exciting up-and-coming teams in the NFL. With top receiver Amari Cooper entering his 2nd season and the addition of Kelechi Osemele in free agency to an offensive line that was already one of the best in the league a year ago, there's no reason to believe that Carr can't significantly up his game yet again this season. Carr's intangibles, solid arsenal of receiving weapons and comfort level with Bill Musgrave's system give him a legitimate chance to be a top-tier fantasy quarterback in 2016.   
Honorable Mentions: Jameis Winston (Buccaneers), Andy Dalton (Bengals), Tyrod Taylor (Bills)

Running Back: Duke Johnson Jr. (Browns) (Average Draft Position: Yahoo!: 107.8 ESPN: 82.7 NFL.com: 97.6)
After a top-to-bottom purge of their organization this offseason, the Browns are in the inevitably painful first season of a rebuilding process. With a roster full of mostly unproven young talent and cheap, stopgap veterans, the amount of potential fantasy impact players on the Browns roster is even lower than usual. One of the few intriguing pieces they possess is second-year running back Duke Johnson Jr. Johnson showed flashes of brilliance in a limited role last season and with a new head coach/offensive coordinator in Hue Jackson that covets the running game, there's good odds he'll have a more prominent role this season. With his distinction as a true two-way back in an offense that is largely devoid of talent, Johnson has a fantastic opportunity to emerge as this offense's go-to-guy and could prove to be a cheap, productive option at a position that has a severe lack of depth.
Honorable Mentions: T.J. Yeldon (Jaguars), Jay Ajayi (Dolphins), Paul Perkins (Giants)

Wide Receiver: Marvin Jones (Lions) (Average Draft Position: Yahoo!: 98.0 ESPN: 100.6 NFL.com: 124.8)
Golden Tate my be entrenched as the Lions top receiver now that Calvin Johnson is retired, but Marvin Jones was brought in free agency to be utilized as a field-stretching complement to Tate, who is mostly utilized in the short-passing game. Jones was rock-solid as the number 3 option in the Bengals passing game behind A.J. Green and Tyler Eifert, putting up 816 YDS and 4 TD's in 2015, and the inevitable increase in opportunities he's going to get in this pass-happy Lions offense could very well lead to a career year for the 26-year old receiver.  
Honorable Mentions: Sterling Shepard (Giants), Kevin White (Bears), Kamar Aiken (Ravens)

Tight End: Clive Walford (Raiders) (Average Draft Position: Yahoo!: 129.8, ESPN: 170.0) NFL.com: 149.7)
Walford is a very deep sleeper (currently going in-between 3 and 5% of league's on the 3 biggest fantasy sites), but I think he has as much as upside as anyone else on this list. He thrived in limited snaps last season (329 YDS and 3 TD on 28 receptions) and his standing as the projected starting tight end in one of the fastest rising young offenses in the league makes him a logical candidate to enjoy a breakout season in 2016. Walford is a potential very late round gem at the single thinnest position in fantasy football.
Honorable Mentions: Dwayne Allen (Colts), Eric Ebron (Lions), Charles Clay (Bills)

Defense: Oakland Raiders (Average Draft Position: Yahoo!: 123.2 ESPN: 138.5 NFL.com: 143.6)
The Raiders had the sack (38, tied for 14th in the league) and takeaway total (25, tied for 12th in the league) of a solid fantasy defense, but their high points allowed (24.9, 22nd in the league) total made them a merely average option in 2015. With the additions of outside linebacker Bruce Irvin, cornerback Sean Smith and safety Reggie Nelson in free agency and safety Karl Joseph in the draft to a defense that already featured All-Pro outside linebacker/defensive end Khalil Mack and highly underrated run-stuffing defensive tackle Dan Williams, the Raiders don't seem like they're going repeat that high points allowed total again. They more than likely won't put up Broncos or Seahawks-esque numbers in most weeks, but their sky-high ceiling and favorable late-season schedule makes them a great pick for owners that like to wait until the final few rounds of the draft to select a defense.
Honorable Mentions: Minnesota Vikings, Philadelphia Eagles, New York Jets

2015 Fantasy Football Sleepers

Fantasy "experts" on all of the major fantasy sites spend this time of year throwing out five or 10 point plans on how to dominate your league, win a guaranteed championship, etc. I'm hear to tell you that all of those columns and television segments are bullshit. In my 10 years of playing fantasy football, I've discovered that the only thing that guarantees titles is securing highly productive players (a.k.a sleeper picks) in the second half of the draft. Like everything else in fantasy football, you're going to strike out more often than you strike gold (To use an example from last year for every Emmanuel Sanders there's a Justin Hunter), but when you hit it big on two or three late-round picks, you'll be firmly at the top of your league come the end of December. Here are the guys I believe have the greatest odds of being late-round breakout candidates for the 2015 season.

Quarterback: Teddy Bridgewater (Vikings) (Average Draft Position: Yahoo!: 119.0 NFL.Com: 122.6 ESPN: 120.7 )
Teddy Bridgewater's rookie campaign was marred with inconsistency (he finished the season with 14 TD's and 13 INT's in 13 games), but he showed enough flashes of greatness to lead me believe that 2015 could be the year he breaks out. According to Pro Football Focus, Bridgewater graded out as the best passer on the run in 2014 and his numbers down the stretch (8 TD's, 71.7 CMLP%, 105.5 Passer Rating in his final five games) seems to indicate that he's starting to find his groove in the NFL. Bridgewater also has the added bonus of having running back Adrian Peterson return to the starting lineup in 2015. Peterson's presence in the lineup all but assures that the defense will be stacking the box to stop him, which should allow Bridgewater more opportunities to thrive in the passing game and build on his impressive finish to the 2014 season. As long as he can cut down on his INT total from last season and develop a rapport with his revamped receiving corps led by the flashy albeit wildly inconsistent veteran Mike Wallace and highly-touted third-year player Charles Johnson, Bridgewater has the potential to be a top-10 fantasy QB in 2015.
Other Potential Sleepers: Derek Carr (Raiders), Nick Foles (Rams),  Blake Bortles (Jaguars)

Running Back: Ameer Abdullah (Lions) (Average Draft Position: Yahoo!: 91.3 NFL.Com: 134.8 ESPN: 84.0)
The pick may seem a little confusing since the Lions have veterans Joique Bell and Theo Riddick on their roster, but I believe Abdullah will rise above the pack and get the starting job. Bell is 29 years old and had pair of major surgeries on his Achilles and knee this offseason and Riddick is only effective as a situational pass-catching back. Bell's health problems and Riddick's limited skill set should open the door for the rookie out of Nebraska to get a majority of the workload. Abduallah has the versatility, durability and vision needed to be an everydown back in the NFL and with six games on the schedule against the horrid run defenses of the Vikings, Packers and Bears, he's on the right track for a highly successful 2015 campaign.
Other Potential Sleepers: Ryan Matthews (Eagles), Danny Woodhead (Chargers), David Johnson (Cardinals)

Wide Receiver: Allen Robinson (Jaguars) (Average Draft Position: Yahoo!: 78.0 NFL.Com: 136.7 ESPN: 88.3)
The Jacksonville Jaguars aren't exactly synonymous with excellence in real or fantasy football of late, but second-year wide receiver Allen Robinson offers up a huge glimmer of hope. Robinson was extremely efficient in his rookie campaign a year ago, demonstrating sure hands and an ability to run any route asked of him before getting put on the injured reserve with a foot injury after the Jaguars Week 10 game with the Cowboys. Now 100% healthy with a quarterback in Blake Bortles hungry to prove he was worth a first-round pick, Robinson is in a great place heading into the 2015 season. The Jaguars have a legion of young receivers, but Robinson seems to be firmly in place as the number one and should get peppered with targets all season long. As long as Robinson stays healthy, he should be a consistent high-end WR3/low-end WR 2 with a high-end WR2/low-end WR1 ceiling, especially in PPR leagues. 
Other Potential Sleepers: Marvin Jones (Bengals), Breshad Perriman (Ravens), Stevie Johnson (Chargers)

Tight End: Josh Hill (Saints) (Average Draft Position: Yahoo!: 91.7 NFL.Com: 149.9 ESPN: 129.2)
The loss of Jimmy Graham has been the clear top story coming out of New Orleans this offseason. Graham was arguably the most important part of the offense outside of quarterback Drew Brees and his towering presence in the redzone (37 TD's over the past 3 seasons) will be sorely missed. Thankfully for the Saints, the man replacing Graham, has a similar skill set. Josh Hill had 5 TD's a year ago as Graham's backup and with more extensive work and a lack of other big redzone targets on the Saints roster, those numbers should go way up. Hill may not put Graham-esque numbers, but a 700+yard, 10-TD campaign is well within the realm of possibility.

Other Potential Sleepers: Charles Clay (Bills), Vernon Davis (49ers), Tyler Eifert (Bengals)

Defense: Denver Broncos (Average Draft Position: Yahoo!: 124.4  NFL.Com: 143.5 ESPN: 115.8)
Not a single preseason ranking baffled me more than the Broncos being projected as the 17th best fantasy defense on Yahoo!, behind defenses like the Lions, Browns and Colts who all either suffered major losses in the offseason or just aren't particularly good. This defense was ranked just outside the top 10 scoring fantasy defenses last year (11th to be exact) and only lost two starters (defensive tackle Terrence Knighton and safety Rahim Moore) from 2014. The Broncos defense retained all five of their Pro Bowlers from a year ago (Von Miller, Chris Harris Jr., T.J. Ward, DeMarcus Ware, Aqib Talib) and still have one of the best secondaries and pass rushes in the league. Anything less than a top 10-12 finish for them would be fairly shocking.
Other Potential Sleepers: Miami Dolphins, New York Jets, Minnesota Vikings 

2014 Fantasy Football Sleepers

If you play fantasy football, you know that finding hidden gems in the later rounds of the draft is essential if you want to win your league. With that mind, here are the unheralded guys that I think have the potential to make a huge splash in 2014.

Quarterback: Josh McCown (Buccaneers) (Average Draft Position: 11th-13th round)
Josh McCown's surprising success with the Chicago Bears filling-in for an injured Jay Cutler made him a great mid-season waiver wire pickup in 2013. McCown may be with a new team in the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but should once again be surprisingly productive this season. Just like with the Bears, McCown has two huge targets to throw to in Vincent Jackson and rookie Mike Evans. Jackson and Evans aren't quite as gifted as Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffrey, but have the reliable hands and downfield abilities alongside the size that is needed to cause a whole lot of matchup problems for opposing defenses. With this Evans/Jackson tandem leading the charge, don't be the least bit surprised if McCown is a top 10 fantasy quarterback in 2014.
Other Potential Sleepers: Ryan Tannehill (Dolphins), Carson Palmer (Cardinals), Jake Locker (Titans)

Running Back: DeAngelo Williams (Panthers) (Average Draft Position: 10th-12th round)
DeAngelo Williams have been a solid RB3/4 option for years with the Panthers thanks to his guaranteed 12-15 touches a game and consistent albeit unremarkable numbers. With Cam Newton coming off offseason ankle surgery and a plethora of new wide receivers on the team, Williams has a legitimate chance to be more heavily featured in this offense this year. Williams' familiarity with the offense and abilities as a two-way back make him a valuable asset for an offense that is going through such a major overhaul in its receiving corps. With 2014 being the shakiest year for running backs in recent memory, Williams is a good guy to gamble on.
Other Potential Sleepers: Terrance West (Browns), Lamar Miller (Dolphins), Jeremy Hill (Bengals)

Wide Reciever: Terrance Williams (Cowboys) (Average Draft Position: 7th-9th round)
Terrance Williams may not be as much of a sleeper as the other guys on this list, but that doesn't mean he's not being undervalued going into 2014. Williams is the clear number two wideout in the powerful Cowboys offense and is coming off of a pretty impressive rookie campaign where he picked up 736 yards and 5 TD's. With a notoriously pass-happy offensive coordinator in Scott Linehan now calling the plays in Dallas and a shockingly porous defense will simultaneously allow a lot of points to opponents and a lot of opportunities for this offensive unit to shine, look for Williams to put up potentially eye-popping numbers this year.  
Other Potential Sleepers: Jeremy Maclin (Eagles), Robert Woods (Bills), Doug Baldwin (Seahawks)

Tight End: Kyle Rudolph (Vikings) (Average Draft Position: 8th-9th round)
Kyle Rudolph has been a reliable endzone threat for years now, but look for 2014 to be the year where he really flourishes. New Vikings offensive coordinator Norv Turner is essentially the tight end whisperer with his ability to get maximum output out of whatever tight ends he has to work with. Turner's skills were especially on display last year in Cleveland, with the great season he managed to get out of the previously unknown and ineffective Jordan Cameron. Turner should yet again have a field day this year with Rudolph- who is bigger and has better hands than Cameron. Rudolph has the perfect scheme and skill set to be the best tight end in the league this year not named Jimmy Graham, Rob Gronkowski or Vernon Davis.
Other Potential Sleepers: Garrett Graham (Texans), Dwayne Allen (Colts), Tyler Eifert (Bengals)

Defense: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Average Draft Position: 12th-15 round)
Out of all these sleeper picks, there is none I'm more confident in than this one. The Buccaneers had two All-Pro players (Gerald McCoy and LaVonte David) and a defense that ranked in the top half of all fantasy and real-life defenses last year with the cancerous Greg Schiano at the helm. Now that defensive masterminds Lovie Smith and Leslie Frazier are in the respective roles of head coach and defensive coordinator and there's a third perennial All-Pro caliber player in the mix (cornerback Alterraun Verner), this defense is set to be an absolute force to be reckoned with in 2014. The Buccaneers defense is a huge bargain for where they're going in the draft and should handsomely reward anyone that waits till the last few rounds to take a defense.
Other Potential Sleepers: Chicago Bears, Baltimore Ravens, New Orleans Saints