1.Carolina Panthers: Bryce Young, quarterback (Alabama)
After giving up a haul that included their next 2 1st round picks and star wideout D.J. Moore to move up from #9 to #1, the pressure for the Panthers to nail this pick couldn't be higher. Despite concerns over his size, Young has a good chance of making this bold move worth it and finally putting a stop to the absurd QB carousel the Panthers have been stuck on for the past 3 seasons. Young was sensational in both seasons as a starter at Alabama and his elite mobility, ability to feel/escape pressure and decision-making should allow him to make a smooth transition to the pros.
2.Houston Texans: Will Anderson, edge rusher (Alabama)
As stunning as it sounds, I'm choosing to believe the buzz circulating in league circles that the Texans are going to pass on taking a QB here. If that is indeed the case, going defense seems like the direction they're headed in. Tyree Wilson's elite size and raw athleticism makes him a strong contender to go here, but Anderson's advantage in the polish and productivity departments should be enough to make him the 1st defensive player off the board. Anderson feasted on elite competition (37 sacks, 36 QB hits, 134 hurries) during his 3 seasons as a starter at Alabama and has a speed/power/technique combo off the edge that should make him a handful for opposing tackles to try and slow down.
3.Arizona Cardinals: Tyree Wilson, edge rusher (Texas Tech)
Trading back with a team eager to leapfrog the Colts or the Colts themselves seems like a near lock for a Cardinals team that isn't in the QB market and has one of the worst rosters in the league at the moment. Whether they stay put or move back, defense seems like their top priority and considering how awful their front 7 was a year ago, edge rusher or defensive tackle seems like the most logical area for them address. While Wilson doesn't have a great first step after the ball is snapped and is probably a year or two away from making a consistent impact, his high motor once he gets moving and crazy strength/size (6'6, 276 lbs) give him the potential to eventually morph into a colossal game-wrecker that opposing offenses will want no business squaring off against.
4.Indianapolis Colts: Will Levis, quarterback (Kentucky)
While new head coach Shane Steichen could completely change their philosophy, the previous QB's Chris Ballard has brought in during his tenure (Jacoby Brissett, Carson Wentz, Matt Ryan Sam Ehlinger, newly signed Gardner Minshew-who is currently sitting atop the depth chart by default) paired with the sudden influx of buzz around Levis makes it seems like he's destined for Indianapolis. Levis has a big arm, Manning Camp tutorial-worthy throwing mechanics and some sneaky rushing ability that wasn't always properly utilized in college. A perceived lack of leadership skills, questionable accuracy/field-processing and a dismal senior season at Kentucky make him a really risk pick at this juncture of the draft, but would it really be a Ballard/Jim Irsay-backed QB choice if there wasn't at least a somewhat strong possibility that the whole thing could crash and burn in spectacular fashion?
5.Seattle Seahawks: Jalen Carter, defensive tackle (Georgia)
Red flags surrounding his character following the revelation that he lied to police when he said he wasn't present on the night where 2 people (Devin Wilock, Chandler LeCroy) involved with the Georgia football program died in a car accident caused by drunk/reckless driving in January and work ethic after he showed up to his Pro Day in poor physical shape and bombed his workout, Carter was arguably the single most dominant defensive player in college football last season and the Seahawks defensive interior is in such bad shape at the moment that they're very likely to roll the dice on his ability to remain great in the NFL.
6.Detroit Lions: Devon Witherspoon, cornerback (Illinois)
Secondary was the primary focus for the Lions in free agency and there's no reason to believe those efforts will stop during the draft. Witherspoon is a scrappy, refined outside corner with pure lockdown potential who consistently improved during his time at Illinois (last season, he had 3 INT's, 14 passes defensed and 0 TD's allowed while only surrendering 22 receptions for 206 YDS on 62 total targets) that should come in and willingly tackle any coverage assignment Aaron Glenn gives to him.
7.Las Vegas Raiders: Christian Gonzalez, cornerback (Oregon)
As the Raiders learned the hard way last season, having a bad pass defense in a division with Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert isn't a lot of fun. While it's unlikely that 2023 will be the year they get out of the league's pass D basement, a physical yet disciplined ballhawk in Gonzalez would provide them with a great building block as they begin their efforts to right the ship.
8.Atlanta Falcons: Bijan Robinson, running back (Texas)
Arthur Smith loves running the football, has a projected starting quarterback in with virtually no starting experience (Desmond Ridder), coaches a team in what looks to be the most wide-open division in football right now and is believed to be on the hot seat after starting off his head coaching career with back-to-back 7-10 seasons. If this man isn't pounding the table for Terry Fontenot to draft Robinson, it would be a serious shock. Robinson is a patient, explosive runner who is built to handle a heavy workload and a strong enough receiver to catch passes out of the backfield or line up out wide and run routes in the slot. If Ridder can be at least semi-respectable this season, the combo of Robinson, Drake London and Kyle Pitts could prove to be dangerous enough to make the Falcons the team to beat in the NFC South.
9.Chicago Bears: Paris Johnson Jr., tackle (Ohio State)
I'm honestly not convinced that the Bears need to take a tackle this high based on how well Braxton Jones played at left tackle last season and generally functional their o-line was whenever Lucas Patrick and/or Michael Schofield weren't forced into action, but the selection of Johnson Jr. has been so widespread in mocks that I'm just going to assume that the pundits know something that I don't. Johnson Jr. is a mountain of a man (6'6, 311 lbs) who has every bit of the freakish athleticism that GM's covet at tackle in this era driven by mobile QB's, RPO's and play-action bootlegs, but he's going to have to really fine-tune his technique (particularly as a run-blocker) before he's able to be a starting-caliber NFL lineman.
10.Philadelphia Eagles: Lukas Van Ness, edge rusher (Iowa)
The Eagles picking this high is almost unfair, so why not take advantage of this good fortune to make the luxury pick of another edge defender to put alongside the likes of Hassan Reddick and Josh Sweat? Van Ness is an unrefined yet stunningly explosive pass-rusher that should benefit from being part of a large rotation in Philly.
11.Tennessee Titans: C.J. Stroud, quarterback (Ohio State)
The smear campaign being run against Stroud-who was viewed as a strong bet to be the #1 overall pick as recently as 2 weeks ago-is reminiscent of the one the league's "anonymous sources" ran against another decorated Ohio State QB in 2021. In this scenario, nobody would be celebrating Stroud's puzzling, unwarranted drop down the draft board more than the Titans. Everybody's favorite tweener franchise has not-so-secretly expressed their desire to move on from Ryan Tannehill after his underwhelming, injury-plagued 2022 campaign and a battle-tested top prospect with a quick release, stellar arm strength and impressive accuracy at every level of the field could step in to take the reigns as soon as Mike Vrabel wanted him to.
12.Houston Texans: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, wide receiver (Ohio State)
Regardless of who ends up starting at QB for the Texans this season, WR is a top need for them after trading Brandin Cooks to the Cowboys last month. If Smith-Njigba is on the board at #12, passing on him would be downright negligent behavior by their front office. The Ohio State product is the only receiver in this class widely viewed as a legit top option courtesy of his inside/outside versatility and well-rounded skill set and short of Nico Collins making a monumental year 3 leap, he would immediately be the top option in their new Kyle Shanahan-inspired offense run by his longtime assistant Bobby Slowik that has a tendency to scheme WR's open A LOT.
13.Green Bay Packers: Dalton Kincaid, tight end (Utah)
The most accomplished TE currently on the Packers roster is Josiah Deguara and he's only caught 39 passes for 371 YDS and 2 TD's through 3 NFL seasons. Adding Kincaid to the mix would likely provide an immediate boost to the position while also giving new starting QB Jordan Love a field-stretching vertical threat that boasts the strong body control and catch radius to be a matchup nightmare-especially in the redzone.
14.New England Patriots: Peter Skoronski, tackle/guard (Northwestern)
Picking in the middle of the first round makes the patented Belichick trade back even more likely than usual. On the off chance that Bill decides to (or is pressured) to stay at #14, selecting Skoronski would make a ton of a sense. There isn't an offensive lineman in this class that mirrors defenders, uses their hands or moves laterally as well as Skoronski does and his ability to play tackle or kick inside to guard-which some pro scouts believe will be necessary on account of his arm length-only adds to his appeal.
15.New York Jets: Braxton Jones, tackle (Georgia)
The Mekhi Becton experiment has to be coming to a close after the 2020 1st-round pick has appeared in just 1 game since his rookie season-which was also cut short by injury and Duane Brown-who played pretty poorly in relief of Becton last season-can't be relied upon to be an every-week starting left tackle as he enters his age 38 season. While Jones' meaningful body of work is small and his skills need some further developing-especially as a run-blocker, he held up great during his sole season as Georgia's starting left tackle in 2022 and plays with an edge that should endear him to the Jet fanbase.
16.Washington Commanders: Anthony Richardson, quarterback (Florida)
Heading into the 2023 season with Jacoby Brissett and Sam Howell duking it out for the starting job is a perfectly fine option for a Commanders team that has been relatively competitive despite dismal QB play for much of the past 3 seasons. However, in the (not very likely) case that Richardson falls to them, they shouldn't even consider hesitating before pulling the trigger. All of the concerns over his accuracy, mechanics and decision-making are justifiable, but he's young enough (he turns 21 next month) to fix all of those issues and his ceiling is so abnormally high (imagine if Lamar Jackson was in the body of Cam Newton and you'll get an idea of how singularly freaky Richardson's intangibles are) that the massive investment in him is totally worth the risk.
17.Pittsburgh Steelers: Joey Porter Jr., cornerback (Penn State)
Having Porter Jr. end up on the same team that his dad played 8 NFL seasons for after being drafted by them in 1999 is purely coincidental and need-based, but it's a cool story nonetheless. While Porter Jr.'s physical style of play will lead to some PI calls, his ability to rough receiver's up at the line of scrimmage and use his high-end recovery speed to break up passes in zone coverage at the last minute make him a unicorn of a press corner that a hard-nosed defensive coach in Mike Tomlin would be ecstatic to have on his roster.
18.Detroit Lions: Calijah Kancey, defensive tackle (Pittsburgh)
As absurd and unfair as it, comparing Kancey to Aaron Donald is inevitable. They're both undersized defensive tackles (Kancey is listed at 6'0, 280 lbs while Donald sits at 6'1, 280) with a superhuman combo of speed and strength that went to the University of Pittsburgh and became the talk of the Combine after posting a 40 time that someone in their weight class has no business running (Kancey ran a 4.67 in Indy, which is actually 0.1 seconds faster than the time Donald posted back in 2014). Lions GM Brad Holmes just so happened to be the Director of College Scouting with the Rams when they took Donald, so it would be poetic for him to bring Kancey to Detroit. If Kancey ends up being even half the player that Donald is, Lions fans would be celebrating this pick for decades.
19.Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Darnell Wright, tackle (Tennessee)
Todd Bowles kicking 2x All-Pro Tristian Wirfs over to the left tackle in the wake of Donovan Smith's departure seems like a strong bet. If that is indeed Bowles' plan, Wright would make a damn fine replacement for Wirfs on the right side. As a 4-year college starter with a history of rotating between both tackle spots, Wright's experience and fearlessness is evident in the bulldozer-esque approach he takes to squaring off against opposing defenders. If his pass protection can catch up with his run-blocking prowess, he could be following Wirfs' All-Pro path in short order.
20.Seattle Seahawks: Nolan Smith, edge rusher (Georgia)
Selecting Smith-who weighs in at only 235 lbs-would mark a considerable change in edge rusher philosophy for John Schneider who has almost brought in 260 lb+ guys at that position since he landed the GM job with the Seahawks in 2010. But sometimes, drastic problems require drastic solutions and, in this case, it's Seattle's atrocious run defense. Smith is a remarkably instinctive defender against the run that has incredible speed to boot (his 4.39 40 at the combine turned a lot of heads)-which allowed him to carve out a prominent role on Georgia's stacked defense over the past couple seasons. If he can become a more productive pass-rusher (he only had 12.5 sacks in 4 years of college) and stay healthy, he has a chance to be a really special player.
21.Los Angeles Chargers: Drew Sanders, inside linebacker (Arkansas)
Lethal as a blitzer and adept in coverage, Sanders can fill the hybrid EDGE/LB role that Kyle Van Noy played for them in 2022 while also providing insurance for the potentially shaky inside linebacker tandem of Eric Kendricks and Kenneth Murray.
22.Baltimore Ravens: Bryan Breesee, defensive tackle (Clemson)
I don't believe for even a millisecond that QB is in play here. At this point, if the standoff between Lamar Jackson, the Ravens and the other 31 NFL owners that are colluding against him doesn't end with Jackson returning to Baltimore to play on the franchise tag, I'll be fucking flabbergasted. Operating under the assumption that Jackson will play for them in 2023, the Ravens biggest needs include WR, CB and DT. Since OBJ just signed with them and they seem to have confidence that Brandon Stephens can be their uncontested CB now that they appear to have moved on from Marcus Peters, DT seems like the most likely play. Stepping into the shoes of a future Hall of Famer in Calias Campell is a tough ask for a rookie, but Breesee has the gap-eating ability and overwhelming power required to fill that interior anchor role admirably.
23.Minnesota Vikings: Deonte Banks, cornerback (Maryland)
If Banks had better ball skills, he would probably be a top 10 pick. His ability to stick to receivers in man coverage is remarkable and he has a terrific understanding of how to be physical with receivers without drawing penalties. Especially now that Patrick Peterson is gone, the Vikings need someone to step up and handle top wideouts and Banks very well could be that guy as early as Week 1.
24.Jacksonville Jaguars: Emmanuel Forbes, cornerback (Mississippi State)
Forbes' stock has spiked significantly in recent weeks despite being one of the thinnest corners (180 lbs) in his class. Why do you ask? Simple: He has some of the most fluid footwork, eye-popping speed (4.35 40) and impressive ball skills (he had 6 INT's and 10 passes defensed in 2022) among this terrific crop of corner prospects and uses his height/length (6'0) well enough to compensate for his lack of mass. Putting Forbes next to an established top corner in Tyson Campbell should do wonders for both his ability to thrive in the pros and a Jags corner group that needs another playmaker within their ranks in order to take the next step forward as a unit.
25.New York Giants: O'Cyrus Torrence, guard (Florida)
The biggest negative for the dramatically overachieving Giants in 2022 was the play of their offensive lineman not named Andrew Thomas. Considering that right tackle Evan Neal-who was easily the biggest liability on their line last season-was a top 10 pick a year ago, somewhere on the interior line will be the place that GM Joe Schoen will look to upgrade in the draft. While a center like John Michael Schmitz or Joe Tippmann could be in play here, career guard Torrence is a higher-regarded prospect with a better chance of being a plug-and-play player in year 1. He didn't allow a single sack in 1,200+ career pass-blocking snaps and his adjustment to the elite competition level of the SEC after spending 3 seasons at low-level D1 school Louisiana University was very impressive as he finished as PFF's top-graded guard in college football in 2022.
26.Dallas Cowboys: Michael Mayer, tight end (Notre Dame)
Once Jerry Jones lays his eyes upon Mayer, he's going to think he has Jason Witten 2.0 on his hands. Mayer is a throwback player at the position who is just as willing to block as he is to go up and make a contested catch in the endzone. Questions surrounding his ability to consistently gain separation on routes in the pros could cause some pause, but everything else about Mayer's game would translate beautifully to an offense that runs the ball a lot and has a quarterback in Dak Prescott that loves involving tight ends in the passing game-which makes the odds of Stephen Jones slapping the draft card out of his dad's hand again pretty low.
27.Buffalo Bills: Myles Murphy, edge rusher (Clemson)
After Von Miller was lost for the year after suffering a torn ACL on Thanksgiving versus the Lions, the Bills pass-rush completely withered away. Even if Miller comes back fully healthy to start the season-which is far from a lock given when he blew his out ACL and his age (he just turned 34), they need to upgrade their personnel on the edge. Armed with elite burst (4.53 40), length (33 3/4 inch arms) and size (6'5, 278 lbs) and plagued by inconsistent productivity at the college level, Murphy has a similar profile as the Bills 20211st round pick Gregory Rousseau. Rousseau has become a more consistent contributor since he arrived in Buffalo and if Murphy can develop similarly, the Bills pass-rush could become really scary within the next couple of years.
28.Cincinnati Bengals: Jahmyr Gibbs, running back (Alabama)
Another round of legal troubles paired with an underwhelming 2022 campaign make Joe Mixon an obvious cut candidate for a team that is looking to ink Joe Burrow and Tee Higgins to long-term extensions. With Samjae Perine bolting for the Broncos in free agency, the only other RB's currently on their roster are Trayveon Williams and Chris Evans-who have both contributed more on special teams than they have on offense. Drafting Gibbs here should provide an immediate solution to their backfield problems. Not only would his presence sure up their depth, but he would also bring some much-needed explosiveness and elusiveness to a backfield that was far too stagnant a year ago.
29.New Orleans Saints: Keion White, edge rusher (Georgia Tech)
Mickey Loomis has never met a raw edge rusher that he wouldn't love to have on his roster and with Marcus Davenport exiting for the Vikings in free agency, there's a vacancy at that position that White-who is long and fast but seems to be freelancing on every snap-will fit quite nicely.
30.Philadelphia Eagles: Brian Branch, safety/cornerback (Alabama)
The exits of C.J. Gardner-Johnson and Marcus Epps in free agency opened up a lot of snaps in the Eagles secondary. Adding a player like Branch who is just as comfortable dropping back into coverage as he is playing down in the box would give the Eagles a versatile chess piece that could be deployed creatively all over the field or stay locked down in a specific role-which would likely be very helpful to them as they try to reconfigure the back-end of their defense after such a dramatic shake-up.
31.Kansas City Chiefs: Zay Flowers, wide receiver (Boston College)
Even if Skyy Moore's role expands significantly in his 2nd season-which is currently the expectation, the Chiefs remain in a position where they need to bolster their receiving corps. With his polished route-running, shiftiness in the open field and willingness to fight through contact and absorb hits to make tough catches over the middle, Flowers would be a natural fit for the slot role that JuJu Smith-Schuster filled for them last season.
2nd Round:
32.Pittsburgh Steelers: Anton Harrison, tackle (Oklahoma)
33.Houston Texans: Hendon Hooker, quarterback (Tennessee)
34.Arizona Cardinals: Quentin Johnston, wide receiver (TCU)
35.Indianapolis Colts: Cam Smith, cornerback (South Carolina)
36.Los Angeles Rams: Will McDonald IV, edge rusher (Iowa State)
37.Seattle Seahawks: Jack Campbell, inside linebacker (Iowa)
38.Las Vegas Raiders: Darnell Washington, tight end (Georgia)
39.Carolina Panthers: Jordan Addison, wide receiver (USC)
40.New Orleans Saints: Mazi Smith, defensive tackle (Michigan)
41.Tennessee Titans: Tyrique Stevenson, cornerback (Miami)
42.Green Bay Packers: Josh Downs, wide receiver (North Carolina)
43.New York Jets: Steve Avila, guard (TCU)
44.Atlanta Falcons: Felix Anudike-Uzomah, edge rusher (Kansas State)
45.Green Bay Packers: Cody Mauch, tackle/guard (North Dakota State)
46.New England Patriots: Rashee Rice, wide receiver (SMU)
47.Washington Commanders: Keelee Ringo, cornerback (Georgia)
48.Detroit Lions: Sam LaPorta, tight end (Iowa)
49.Pittsburgh Steelers: John Michael Schmitz, center (Minnesota)
50.Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Antonio Johnson, safety (Texas A&M)
51.Miami Dolphins: Luke Musgrave, tight end (Oregon State)
52.Seattle Seahawks: Jalin Hyatt, wide receiver (Tennessee)
53.Chicago Bears: Adetomiwa Adeabawore, edge rusher (Northwestern)
54.Los Angeles Chargers: Zach Charbonnet, running back (UCLA)
55.Detroit Lions: Trenton Simpson, inside linebacker (Clemson)
56.Jacksonville Jaguars: Dawand Jones, tackle (Ohio State)
57.New York Giants: Sydney Brown, safety (Illinois)
58.Dallas Cowboys: Tyjae Spears, running back (Tulane)
59.Buffalo Bills: Matthew Bergeron, tackle (Syracuse)
60.Cincinnati Bengals: Tucker Kraft, tight end (South Dakota State)
61.Chicago Bears: Julius Brents, cornerback (Kansas State)
62.Philadelphia Eagles: DJ Turner, cornerback (Michigan)
63.Kansas City Chiefs: Isaiah Foskey, edge rusher (Notre Dame)
