Denver Broncos
2024 Record: 10-7 (3rd in AFC West)
Head Coach: Sean Payton (2nd season)
Notable Additions: S Talanoa Hufanga, ILB Dre Greenlaw, TE Evan Engram
Notable Departures: ILB Cody Barton, P Riley Dixon, RB Javonte Williams
Biggest Reason for Excitement: Further Building Up the Defense
One of the key drivers behind the Broncos pretty surprising success last season was the play of their defense. Vance Joseph's group made one hell of a turnaround becoming a top 3 scoring defense who were also excellent against the run (3rd), in the redzone (3rd) and with compiling sacks (1st) a year after finishing as one of the worst defenses across the board. Despite this success, they weren't infallible by any means (particularly in terms of pass defense, where they ranked a below average 19th) and GM George Patton elected to focus their offseason roster tweaking efforts on further building up the defense.
There were 3 players in particular-all slotted to start in Week 1-who ended up being the big gets for Patton. In free agency, it was a pair of ex-49ers in Talanoa Hufanga and Dre Greenlaw. While both guys carry a real risk with them as they've battled injuries in recent years (as tends to be the case with 49ers players during the Kyle Shanahan/John Lynch era), their talent and productivity when they're on the field is indisputable. Hufanga polices the middle of the field with a remarkable ferocity and has some of the best ball skills of any safety in the league right now (7 INT's from 2022-23), even if his aggressive mentality leads to him blowing some coverage from time to time. Greenlaw only appeared in 2 games last year after missing the first 13 games of the season following his infamous Super Bowl injury 10 months prior and being shut down for the final 2 games of the year after the 49ers were eliminated from playoff contention, but he was a tackling machine the prior 2 seasons (247 tackles over 30 games) that provided a big boost to the 49ers linebacking corps. Inserting players of their caliber directly alongside the likes of Brandon Jones and Alex Singleton instantly makes the prospect of attacking the back 2 levels that much more daunting.
On the draft front, they used their 1st round pick to select corner Jahdae Barron out of the University of Texas. Barron was widely considered to be the top corner prospect in a class that was viewed as lacking a "can't miss guy" a la Derek Stingley Jr., Devon Witherspoon or his now-teammate Patrick Surtain II. Despite the question that arose surrounding Barron's ability to be a lockdown #1 corner in the pros, he was excellent in zone coverage in college, and those skills should serve him well in his current position of starting slot corner.
Addressing the few vulnerable spots they have while retaining all 9 of the other starters from last year's group is a dream scenario from the Broncos that could make them even better than they were a year ago.
Biggest Reason for Concern: The Very Real Possibility That Last Season Was a Mirage
Saying that nobody believed in the Broncos would be distorting reality a bit as the bulk of the legions of Sean Payton honks out there expected them to be good last year. It is, however, completely fair to say that they surpassed any reasonable expectations that were placed on them last year. Bo Nix was hardly a slam dunk to hit the ground running as a rookie given his college career that was largely defined by underachievement relative to the elite pedigree he had coming of high school, their skill position players beyond Courtland Sutton were as unproven and unsexy as they come and as I just mentioned above, their defense was trash the year prior. Although the second part did end up being true, Nix and the defense played well enough to power this group to a 10-7 record and the final Wild Card spot in the AFC. Things didn't go well at all in their playoff game against the Bills as Josh Allen and co. mopped the floor with them from the first whistle to the last, but what this playoff appearance could represent for their future meant more than the result of this one specific game.
Fast forward to this offseason and all of a sudden, a level of football hype that we haven't seen since the days of Peyton Manning, Von Miller and Demaryius Thomas has hit the greater Denver area. The Broncos are actually in the middle of some of the biggest offseason narratives right now as a fair number of people expect them to be the next AFC team that joins the Chiefs, Bills and Ravens at the top of the hierarchy. Some of the boldest voices out there, particularly the Eternal Queen of the Payton Honks Kay Adams, believe this team can at least make it to the Super Bowl, if not win it.
Look, I can't dispute the logic behind this wave of belief in the Broncos. They were the most improved team in the AFC last year and the combination of a great defense and a young QB coming off a solid rookie year is one that's going to generate excitement. Maybe I'm being blinded by my well-documented feelings that Payton is the most overrated coach in modern NFL history, but right now, I just can't help but think a lot of these people that are going all in on the Broncos for 2025 have lost the fucking plot.
Let's start with the sole indisputable fact that can be used to fuel my Broncos skepticism: How they fared against quality opponents in 2024. Last season (including the playoffs), they played 10 games against teams with winning records and 8 against teams that went to the playoffs. Their respective records in those games were as follows: 2-8 and 2-7. For further context, those 2 wins came against the Buccaneers in Week 3 (which is a legit win as the Bucs started last year 2-0) and the Chiefs in a meaningless Week 18 game in which Chiefs rested every single one of their valuable starters. This means that 8 of their 10 wins last season came against teams with losing records and only 2 of those came against teams that won more than 5 games (Colts, Falcons), If this isn't the epitome of a team's reputation being inflated due to their ability to feast on bad competition, I don't what it is.
On the speculative front, I will say that I believe the only things this team can truly count on right now is Surtain II's ability to be a lockdown corner and their offensive line's ability to be steady. Everything else about them is either unproven or unremarkable. The two biggest points of uncertainty I would point to is their biggest heroes from last year: Nix and the defense. Nix is a particularly fascinating object to fawn over as he was pretty much as advertised last season: A competent, fairly accurate QB who can run an offense efficiently, has enough mobility to make plays outside the pocket/with his legs when he needs to and will sometimes go full YOLO gunslinger when pressured (his 12 INT's including a 6 pick run over the final 4 games of the regular season prior to their Week 18 creampuff finale against the Chiefs F-squad do a pretty good job of reflecting this tendency). How even honing in on the highest of his highs from his rookie campaign (his 28/33/304 YDS/4 TD showing against the Falcons or his 28/37/284 YDS/3 TD performance versus the Panthers) could inspire the level of bowing at the altar of Nix that we're seeing right now is a complete head-scratcher to me, especially given the makeup of their RB/WR/TE rooms at the moment (more on that in bit). It's going to take a lot more than more or less replicating what Mac Jones did with the Patriots in 2021 for me to think Nix is anything more than a passable starter.
As for the defense, what about Vance Joseph's coaching track record suggests that's he a lock to oversee an elite defense again? Last year, marked the first time during Joseph's tenure as a DC or HC that one of his defenses finished in the top 10 among scoring defenses. Prior to last year, his top overall ranking was #11 with the Cardinals back in 2021 and his groups had only finished in the top half of the league 2 other times (13th in 2018 when he was the Broncos HC, 12th in 2020 during his 2nd season with the Cardinals) besides that. The defense didn't look all that different in 2023 when they ranked 29th in the league, so who says guys like Nik Bonitto, Brandon Jones and Jonathon Cooper will be able to repeat what they did last year. Just look at how quickly that Jaguars unit fell apart after dominating in 2017 and there were a lot more proven high-end players in that group than there is here. Say this group were to slip down to the #13-15 range, do they really have enough juice on offense to overcome the surrendering of more points? There's a very real possibility that the answer is no.
Everybody wants to believe that 2024 was the first sign that the Broncos were building something special. It was the first time the franchise truly showed signs of life since they won the Super Bowl in 2015 and nobody wants to go back to the joyless middling-to-below-average purgatory that they've were in for the previous decade. The sobering reality is that their performance in 2024 very well could prove to be a mirage, and it would probably be highly beneficial for the people that are the most bullish on this team right now to at least flirt with entertaining this possibility before they proceed with punching their tickets to the AFC Championship Game in late January.
Key to Reaching Their Ceiling: Becoming More Dynamic on Offense:
The profound lack of sexiness present in the 2024 Broncos offense didn't always show up on the score board as the group finished 10th in scoring offense. Where it actually did show up was in their blah yardage stats (16th in rushing, 20th in passing) that indicated their excellent defense was responsible for their elevated defensive ranking above all else.
Given their aforementioned strength on the offensive line and Payton's track record of being able to put points on the board in the regular season, the biggest piece of the blame pie falls on their personal at RB/WR/TE. Last year, Sutton was the only consistently reliable pass catcher they had (he finished the year with a solid 81/1,081/8 line and was targeted a whopping 135 times, which was 55 more than anybody else on the team and 70 more than any other WR) and their rushing attack was driven by an uninspired committee (Javonte Williams, Jaleel McLaughlin, Audric Estime) and Nix scampering a handful of times each game.
Heading into 2025, they'll be working with a slightly different group. While their starting receivers will be more or less the same (Sutton, deep threat Marvin Mims Jr., Nix's college teammate Troy Franklin), they are changing things up with the additions of Evan Engram at TE and enlisting the duo of J.K. Dobbins and rookie RJ Harvey lead their backfield committee. The newcomers should be the biggest difference as they have the potential to give this group something they've lacked in recent year: some sembelance of dynamism. Engram has proven to be a valuable short-yard target in recent years that can also fight for balls in the redzone while the backfield pairing of Dobbins and Harvey has the potential to deliver on the thunder/lightning dynamic that Payton has been trying to recapture since the glory days of Mark Ingram/Alvin Kamara in New Orleans. There are inevitable questions surrounding the durability of the famously injury-prone Engram and Dobbins and the ability of Harvey's shiftiness/pass-catching prowess that made him so productive at UCF translating to the pros that make this more wishful thinking than something to be truly optimistic about at this juncture, but they have a sincere to change the complexion of this offense by themselves and they'll need to make it happen in order for the Broncos to take another step forward in 2025.
Bottom Line:
I'm going to remain skeptical about the Broncos being anything more than a slightly above average team until they're able to show that they can beat playoff teams and be more consistently productive on offense. However, I do think the AFC is weak enough for them to back into the playoffs regardless of whether or not they improve or regress from where they were a year ago.
Kansas City Chiefs
2024 Record: 15-2 (1st in AFC West)
Head Coach: Andy Reid (13th season)
Notable Additions: CB Kristian Fulton, QB Gardner Minshew, DT Jerry Tillery
Notable Departures: G Joe Thuney, WR DeAndre Hopkins, S Justin Reid
Biggest Reason for Excitement: Being Able to Poach Kristian Fulton from Their Division Rivals in LA
After 4 nondescript, occasionally ugly seasons with the Titans, LSU product Kristian Fulton signed a 1 year-deal with the Chargers in March 2024 to compete for their starting outside corner job left vacant by departed free agent Michael Davis. Not only did he win the job, but he also enjoyed his best NFL season by far (7 passes defensed, 1 INT, 51 tackles, 459 YDS/62.5 CMP% allowed) as part of the 7th best passing defense in football. When free agency rolled around this March, Fulton elected to leave the Chargers for the last place they'd like to see him go: Kansas City. Aside from the obvious glee that comes with taking away a valuable player from one of your biggest rivals, this could be a huge get for the Chiefs as they've had a brutal time finding outside corners since Charavarius Ward left following the 2021 season and Fulton's arrival should allow Jaylen Watson to return to his more natural position of covering #3 WR's. Worst off all for the Chargers and best off of all for the Chiefs, they got Fulton for relatively short money (2 years/$20 mil/$15 mil guaranteed). If Fulton is able to help get this group back on track after their below average finish in pass D last year, this deal will go down as a complete steal.
Biggest Reason for Concern: Their Offensive Woes of the Last 2 Years Starting to Really Snowball
When the Chiefs were winning ugly in 2023 amidst their offense's surprising dip to the middle of the pack, it served as further proof of their greatness as it signaled they could win in a variety of different ways. When they did the same thing in 2024, a concerning set of questions had to start being asked. Was Patrick Mahomes regressing? Has Andy Reid lost his fastball as a play caller/designer? Now that Travis Kelce is past his prime and Tyree Hill is long gone, is their skill position talent pool too thin? Could being in the proximity of Matt Nagy be the real catalyst for their recent woes? All of these things will and deserved to be pondered as we head into a 2025 season where nothing has been resolved.
As a pass-catching unit, all eyes will be on Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy. Rice has been terrific since he was drafted in 2023, but isn't expected to see much action this season as he's rehabbing from a torn LCL and hamstring that he suffered in a Week 4 contest with the Chargers last October and is facing an imminent suspension for the spree of questionable behavior he went on last year that included a drag racing incident that recently earned him a 30-day jail sentence in his hometown of Dallas . Worthy, on the other hand, will be looking to build upon an uneven rookie campaign where he flashed some potential as a versatile chess piece with splash play potential.
On the ground, Isiah Pacheco will be looking to bounce back from a dismal 2024 campaign (83/310/1 TD and a dismal 3.7 YPC in 7 games) where a fractured fibula suffered in Week 2 really hampered his ability to contribute. Kareem Hunt did a fine enough job filling in last year, but something was missing from their offense without having Pacheco's physicality and explosiveness leading their backfield. Pacheco's famous lack of patience as a runner could get him in trouble behind an offensive line that seems likely to regress in 2025, but unless things get real bad with them or last year's struggles were caused by something deeper than coming from a pretty serious injury too quickly, he should return to being the solid back he was during his first 2 NFL seasons.
What the Chiefs were doing in the early years of Mahomes' run was the kind of alien shit that was never going to sustainable. But the pendulum swing that's occurred over the past 2 seasons goes beyond water finding its level and into a potentially big fucking problem. As messy as this league is these days, the Chiefs will not continue to win 12-15 games per year with an offense that's in the middle of the pack and that regression in the win column could happen as soon as this year if these troubling downward trends continue to snowball.
Key to Reaching Their Ceiling: The Offensive Line Being Able to Hold Up
There's one common denominator in both of the Chiefs Super Bowl losses: The offensive line got completely dominated as Mahomes was sacked a combined total of 9 times and faced a combined 41 pressures in these games. It goes beyond those alarming raw numbers as anybody who saw those games will tell you that Mahomes was under siege basically non-stop.
Unlike in 2021 following the loss to the Buccaneers where they added veterans Orlando Brown Jr. and Joe Thuney to help fortify the line, the Chiefs elected to solve the problem by getting younger. After the failed experiment of Kingsley Suamataia at left tackle last season, they elected to kick him inside after making the shocking move to trade a cornerstone piece in Thuney-who played out of position at LT for most of last year as a result of Suamataia's struggles-to the Bears and draft Josh Simmons in the first round. While the chain of events that caused Thuney to get traded, Suamataia to move to guard and Simmons to be drafted was (presumably) their desire to re-sign their star guard Trey Smith-who isn't even in his prime yet at 26, it's still hard to justify trading a rock solid veteran offensive lineman about a month after line play cost them a Super Bowl.
The can of worms this really opens up is having to rely on two young lineman to protect Mahomes' blind side. Simmons has some good traits (fluid movement skills, being able to mirror/counter defenders) that could help him eventually develop into a good pro LT, but he's still very raw and coming off an ACL injury that cost him the final few months of his tenure at Ohio State while Suamatia was so brutally awful last season that kicking him inside might not be enough to salvage his pro career. Smith, Creed Humphrey and Jawaan Taylor-whose yet to live up to the monster contract Brett Veach handed him in 2023-should be able to hold down the fort to an extent, but it won't matter if a whole side of the line sucks. Being able to withstand pass rushes, get things going in the rushing game, etc. could very well be the difference between the Chiefs lifting another Lombardi and going home hanging their heads in shame while Mahomes slips into a light coma in the cold tub as he attempts to sleep off the pain inflicted by his line's inability to do their jobs.
Bottom Line:
As real as the threat of the regression is, the Chiefs remain too well-rounded and coached to not once again be taken seriously as a contender in 2025.
Las Vegas Raiders
2024 Record: 4-13 (4th in AFC West)
Head Coach: Pete Carroll (1st season)
Notable Additions: QB Geno Smith, S Jeremy Chinn, WR Amari Cooper
Notable Departures: S Tre'Von Moehrig, CB Nate Hobbs, DT Christian Wilkins
Biggest Reason for Excitement: The Stability That Pete Carroll Brings to a Franchise
Following their most recent Super Bowl appearance in 2002 with Bill Callahan at the helm, the Raiders have been one of the worst teams in football. They've finished with a losing record in 17 out of the past 22 seasons and made the playoffs only twice (2016, 2021) during this period. All of that losing has also opened the door for a whole lot of coaching changes as 13 different guys have held this job during this nightmarish stretch for a former longtime pillar of the league. Hope for restoring this franchise to respectability may have finally arrived this past winter when the Raiders (surprisingly) announced Pete Carroll as their new coach after dismissing Antonio Pierce just 1 year after promoting from interim to full time HC. Carroll's run with the Seahawks-which came to an end following the 2023 season-were defined by being consistently competitive regardless of what shape their roster was in. During Carroll's 14 years with the Seahawks, they never finished below 7 wins in a season, made 10 playoff appearances and appeared in 2 Super Bowls-winning over the Broncos in 2013 and losing on one of the most famous plays in NFL history in a shootout with the Patriots the following year. The Seahawks never advanced past the divisional round following that heartbreaking loss to the Pats and Carroll's legacy will have a permanent stain on it because of his failure to win more than 1 title, but that doesn't take away from the fact that he built something special there that led to a level of winning the franchise had never seen before and will be hard pressed to see again.
Given that Carroll will be turning 74 next month and now holds the distinction of being the oldest coach in the league by 7 whole years (Andy Reid is the current holder of this geriatric coach silver medal) following Bill Belichick's demotion to the college ranks upon his own return to coaching after a year away from the sidelines, he won't be able to have the same sort of tenure that he had with the Seahawks. However, this doesn't mean that Carroll won't be able to make an impact with the Raiders. It took him very little time to overhaul the Seahawks locker room and his ability to connect with players and get the most out of the roster he's been given remained strong throughout his tenure there. While 2025 probably won't be pretty, it would shock me if the stability and leadership that Carroll is known for didn't help the Raiders make meaningful progress this season.
Biggest Reason for Concern: Their Defense Managing to Even Be Worse Than It's Been Recently
2023 was a Christmas Miracle for the Raiders defense as they finished 9th in scoring defense. This marked the first time they finished in the top 10 since their aforementioned Super Bowl season in 2002 and the first time they finished above 20th since 2006 where they finished 18th. Last year, it was right back to sucking shit as they ranked 25th. For reasons that probably have to do with that 9th place finish 2 seasons ago, Carroll elected to retain Patrick Graham as DC when he accepted the HC gig (although Carroll did dismiss all of his assistants except for DL coach Rob Leonard-who actually added run game coordinator to his coaching duties). Graham isn't a horrible DC by any means, but it does a feel bit ridiculous to keep him around based on the strength of one season.
The biggest problems with the Raiders defense heading into 2025 aren't from a coaching standpoint but with the personnel they're putting onto the field. A mass veteran exodus in free agency that saw Tre'Von Moehrig, Nate Hobbs, Robert Spillane and Divine Deablo leave and whatever the fuck happened with Christian Wilkins at the start of camp has made an already weak group that much more vulnerable. Including the return of Malcolm Koonce-who missed the entire 2024 campaign after suffering a non-contact knee injury in practice right before their Week 1 contest with the Chargers, the Raiders will have just 4 players who've started a game for them previously out there in Week 1 (Maxx Crosby, Adam Butler and Isaiah Pola-Mao are the other 3). Their other 8 projected starters are a real ragtag group consisting of young players who never started a game prior to this season (Chris Smith, Kyu Blu Kelly), high draft picks who flamed out elsewhere (Eric Stokes, Devin White), anonymous veteran linebackers (Elandon Roberts, Germaine Pratt), a guy that I didn't even know existed until this writing (Thomas Booker IV-whose been in the league for 3 full seasons?!?) and everybody's favorite human torpedo Jeremy Chinn. There's just no way that you can be confident in at least the majority of these guys ability to play at even a passable level, especially with the older vets (Roberts, Pratt, Chinn, White) who've already proven they're not all that great.
The last thing the Raiders need as they attempt to get back on track after a dismal 4-13 season is a shit defense, but it's well within the realm unless Graham pulls another miracle out of his ass.
Key to Reaching Their Ceiling: Their Offense Establishing an Identity That Works
Between their mid-season coordinator change from Luke Getsy to Scott Turner and the wonky QB play that the tandem of Gardner Minshew and Aidan O'Connell provided them with for 18 games, the Raiders offense failed to have an identity beyond tossing the ball to Brock Bowers or Jakobi Meyers and hoping they can make a play (it worked to an extent as Bowers had the best season by a rookie tight end in league history and Meyers cleared 1,000 YDS for the 1st time in his career). Heading into 2025, it's clear that Carroll wishes to bring the combination of smashmouth rushing and airing the ball out downfield that he leaned on so heavily during his time in Seattle to Vegas as the team drafted Ashton Jeanty in the 1st round and traded for Carroll's old friend from the Pacific Northwest Geno Smith to make it possible. This is the clear preferred strategy for Carroll and his new OC Chip Kelly-who is back in the NFL for the first time in nearly a decade-and one they should heavily lean on out of the gates. Say Jeanty either isn't the unstoppable bellcow he's widely projected to be or gets injured early, the Raiders could easily pivot to more a refined version of what they did last year by having their offense run through getting the ball to Bowers or Meyers. They're both strong enough after the catch and as route runners to handle an assortment of tasks and should have no trouble producing at a high clip if called upon after playing so well with QB's that are far inferior to Smith last season. It really doesn't matter what shape the Raiders offense takes as long they find an identity, stick to it and it's good enough to lead them out of the basement.
Bottom Line:
While I expect them to have one of the worst defenses in the league, Caroll, Smith and Jeanty should do enough good for the Raiders to allow them to considerably improve from a year ago.
Los Angeles Chargers
2024 Record: 11-6 (2nd in AFC West)
Head Coach: Jim Harbaugh (2nd season)
Notable Additions: G Mekhi Becton, CB Donte Jackson, WR Keenan Allen
Notable Departures: OLB Joey Bosa, RB J.K. Dobbins, CB Kristan Fulton
Biggest Reason for Excitement: The State of Their Defense
As I mentioned last week , the Chargers defense has been bafflingly slept upon heading into this season after finishing as the top scoring D in the league last season. What is driving this muted conversation about this group is really anyone's guess. Are they concerned about Khalil Mack falling off at age 34? Do they not like the trajectories of young guys like Tarheeb Still, Alohi Gilman and Tuli Tuipulotu? Maybe they are dismayed by the fact that Joey Bosa, Poona Ford, Kristian Fulton and Asante Samuel Jr. aren't back in the fold? Please reach out to me and provide me with some further clarity on your take if you feel this way!
Anyways, I really like the makeup of this group heading into 2025. Jesse Minter instilled a real gritty toughness in this group that immediately washed away the sins of the Brandon Staley-era, Teair Tart/Da'Shawn Hand are a sneaky good interior duo that should make positive contributions against the run and the pass and Tuipulotu and Mack could make for a killer edge duo if the former retains his pass rushing efficiency in an expanded role and the latter doesn't suddenly nosedive after yet another spectacular season in 2024. I do have some mild concerns about Donte Jackson-who is coming off a pretty poor season with the Steelers-replacing Fulton and Cam Hart-who struggled in coverage during his 6 starts as a rookie last year-replacing Samuel Jr. at corner, but that's not enough to make me believe this group will slide out of the top 10 this year.
Biggest Reason for Concern: Justin Herbert Not Being Good Enough to Take Them to the Next Level
Justin Herbert has had valid built-in excuses for the Chargers underachieving since he got there in 2020. Whether it's the defense not being able to make stops, his coaches being inept or his receivers dropping passes at the worst possible time, it felt like there was always something beyond his control going wrong at all times. The blame game finally made its way to him in January when he full blown imploded against the Texans in the Wild Card Round. Herbert-who had been calm and pretty efficient all regular season long-chalked up an embarrassing 43.8 CMP% and somehow managed to exceed his entire regular season pick total (3) by throwing 4 picks on only 32 passing attempts. The performance was so jarringly bad that it even caused some people to reevaluate the Jaguars debacle from 2022 and throw blame on him that he (mostly rightfully) avoided in the immediate aftermath.
Fair or not, Herbert is going to be viewed differently after this game. The microscope he's avoided for the first 5 seasons of his NFL career is coming out in full force now and what it finds might not be great. It's not outlandish at all to think that Herbert will follow in the footsteps of guys like Dak Prescott and Kirk Cousins as great regular season QB's who puke on their shoes come playoff time. The 2-game sample size may be small enough to avoid drawing any rash conclusions from, but it sure as shit introduced the possibility that he's not cut out for performing on that stage. Given how inherently cursed the Chargers organization is, it would be oddly fitting if they ended up having yet another franchise quarterback who fell apart in the playoffs despite all of his talent. If Herbert is fortune enough to guide the Chargers to another playoff appearance this year, the pressure on him to deliver this time around is going to be massive. And if he doesn't, his legacy as a choker will be one giant step closer to being cemented.
Key to Reaching Their Ceiling: Getting the Run Game Really Humming
Watching the Chargers offense operate last season was pretty odd as it was a Greg Roman-led offense that wasn't completely dominated by the run. Don't get it twisted, they still ran the ball plenty (463 attempts, which ranked 11th in the league), they just didn't run as much as they wanted to since they were pretty average at doing so (17th in the league) and putting the ball in Herbert's hands often led to more favorable outcomes (having the 19th ranked passing offense despite attempting the 5th fewest passes in the league supports what the tape shows quite nicely). Roman, Harbaugh and GM Joe Hortiz were clearly unsatisfied with this balance last season as well as they elected to let starting back J.K. Dobbins walk in free agency and brought in 2 backs to replace him in Najee Harris and rookie Omarion Hampton.
Heading into camp, Harris was already not expected to have a good shot at landing the starting job given how consistently average he was in another run-dominant offense with the Steelers. Those odds went down to basically zero as Harris sustained a fireworks-induced eye injury over the Fourth of July that kept him off the field for most of camp and the entirety of the preseason. He is currently expected to return to action in Week 1, but his status as the backup is basically cemented at this point.
This of course means that all eyes are on their 1st round draft pick Hampton. The North Carolina product was the consensus #2 back available in this year's draft behind Ashton Jeanty and on paper at least, is tailor made for Roman's offense. The kid runs like a freight train, showed a level of balance that indicates he could be a monster after contact and appears to have the size/strength combo needed to withstand the abuse that comes with shouldering a heavy workload. Hampton emerging as the workhorse battering ram Roman craves in the backfield would restore the levels of meathead nirvana in the Chargers locker room that could cause Harbaugh to need a change of khakis every single week.
The other part of this equation that needs to be considered is will the Chargers o-line be strong enough to support a run-dominant attack without having star left tackle Rashawn Slater-who suffered a torn patellar tendon in practice earlier this month-around all season. As Todd Gurley proved many years ago with the Rams, strong run blocking isn't a requirement to dominate, but it sure as hell makes things a lot easier and lowers the odds of somebody breaking down as early as Gurley did. There is some comfort to be had in the fact that Joe Alt will be the one switching from right to left tackle to relieve Slater. Alt's transition to the pros last season was among the most seamless of any rookie at the positon has had in recent memory and although his pass blocking remains ahead of his run blocking, he should do a fine job of anchoring the line in both facets of the game. The rest of the line is a far shakier bet. Zion Johnson and Bradley Bozeman are firmly established as subpar run blockers, Trey Pipkins-who is now set to take Alt's place at RT-was a butcher at guard last year, so it's fair to assume he'll only get worse on the outside and Mekhi Becton had an all-around awesome season with the Eagles last year (his 1st at guard), but carries a heightened injury risk despite remaining relatively healthy over the past 2 seasons. There's a world in which this group is good enough to make Hampton's job easy enough to be a top-tier force, it's just more than likely going to require some good injury luck and Johnson and/or Bozeman taking an unexpected step forward to materialize.
Bottom Line:
As long as their defense remains good and the rushing attack steps forward, the Chargers should once again at least be in the mix for a playoff spot.
Predicted Standings:
1.Kansas City Chiefs (12-5)
2.Los Angeles Chargers (9-8)
3.Denver Broncos (8-9)
4.Las Vegas Raiders (7-10)
