Monday, December 9, 2013

Top 10 Biggest Surprises of the 2013 NFL Season

It's been a wild NFL season so far and there's still 3 weeks of the regular season and the entire playoffs to-go. Although it may be a bit premature, here are my picks for the 10 biggest surprises of the 2013 NFL season to-date.

10.The second-year dominance of Alshon Jeffrey: The Bears drafted Alshon Jeffrey in the second round of the 2012 draft with the hope he could break out and make their passing game more dynamic. His rookie year was plagued by injuries and immaturity that really prevented him from making an impact. 2013 has been a giant step forward for Jeffrey and he's been a borderline top 10 overall receiver this season. He's already put up over 1,000 yards on the year and ranks 7th in the league in receiving yards ahead of such veteran heavyweights as Dez Bryant, Vincent Jackson and his teammate Brandon Marshall. Jeffrey has proven to be a viable deep threat with a great set of hands and big-play capability (look no further than his acrobatic touchdown in double-coverage last week against the Vikings.) Jeffrey's strong 2013 campaign and been a big reason why the Bears offense have suddenly become one of the most impressive in the league.

9.Hakeem Nicks's lackluster season: 2013 looked to be a comeback season for Hakeem Nicks. His 2012 season was tainted by lingering injuries that kept him off-the-field for numerous games and consistently hobbled when he was on-the-field. Nicks was healthy going this year and has remained that way for much of the season yet his numbers are still disappointing. Nicks has put up 789 yards on the year, but 391 of those came in 3 games against bottom 5 secondaries in the Cowboys, Eagles and Chargers. Nicks has failed to reach the endzone all season and has consistently dropped a ton of passes. Nicks's inconsistency almost assures he'll be leaving the Giants in free agency and with his poor play the past two seasons, it's going to be hard to justify any team throwing a multi-year, top-dollar contract at him.

8.Torrey Smith emerging as a legitimate number 1 wideout: Prior to this year, Torrey Smith was seen as a strictly deep-threat compliment to a top wideout. This year Smith proved that he can be that top wideout and do anything that's called upon him. Smith had a huge role to fill with the departure of Anquan Boldin and absence of tight end Dennis Pitta with a major hip injury (Pitta finally returned to the lineup yesterday) and Smith more than lived up to the task. His play has been one of the few bright spots on a god-awful Ravens offense and the biggest reason they are still in the thick of the playoff hunt.

7.New Orleans Saints defense: Rob Ryan inherited a defense that allowed the most yards in a single-season in NFL history and turned them around swiftly. Their passing defense went from being league-worst to an elite unit that currently ranks 3rd in the league thanks to free-agent pickup Keenan Lewis and rookie safety Kenny Vaccaro. Their rushing defense isn't quite as strong but is certainly improved from a unit that was gouged week-in and week-out last year. It also helps that Cameron Jordan is quickly becoming one of the most feared pass rushers in the league and offenses are starting to have to game-plan around him giving opportunities for other young players like Junior Gallette and Akeem Hicks to get to the quarterback. Ryan deserves a lot of credit for turning this defense around into a respectable overall unit with dominant aspects.

6.C.J. Spiller's struggle to breakout as the feature back: Anyone who watched C.J. Spiller in 2012 will tell you that he had everything you wanted in a feature back: Explosive speed, great vision, a healthy yards per carry average carry (6.0) and an ability to make defenders miss. Well 2013 Spiller picked up the role of sole feature back for the Bills and hasn't really proven that he's up to the task. While he has shown flashes of the dominance he had in 2012, Spiller has mostly struggled to get things going in 2013. In fairness to Spiller, he has been a bit banged-up for much of the season but that still doesn't explain his early struggles before he tweaked his ankle against the Ravens in Week 4. I still believe that Spiller can handle the duties of being the top-back, it just hasn't worked out this year.

5.Josh Freeman: Chalk this up as the most confusing and sudden downfall of a player in 2013. Just one year removed from a 4,000 yards season and going into a contract year, Josh Freeman opened the 2013 with a string of 3 horrible starts, was then benched for rookie Mike Glennon and the Buccaneers cut him in early October. Freeman was then snatched up by the Vikings just 3 days later and after only 1 start against the Giants in which once again he looked awful, he's been a healthy scratch every week (save for week 8 against the Packers which he missed with concussion-like symptoms) on a team where the other two quarterbacks on the roster are Christian Ponder and Matt Cassel. This 2013 debacle has all but assured Freeman will not be a starter in the league again and will have trouble finding a new home this offseason even in a reserve role.

4.2012 NFC Playoff teams blowing it in 2013: I can't recall the last time so many powerhouses have all fell from grace in the same season. The Redskins, Falcons, Vikings and to a lesser extent, Packers have all stumbled after achieving great success in 2012. Whether it be injuries (Falcons, Packers) lack of playmakers (Vikings) or just complete and total disarray in the locker room (Redskins) all of these teams have grossly underachieved and save for the Packers who are still in the mix, fell way short of the playoffs this year.

3.The failure of Trent Richardson: When the Browns traded Trent Richardson to the Colts on September 18, the entire football world was in shock. The Browns had just spent the number 3 overall pick on him in 2012 and he seemed bound for success with new offensive coordinator Norv Turner. At time, a lot of people (myself included) thought the trade was very stupid on the Browns part. Now it looks like quite the opposite with the Browns holding  two first-round picks in next year's draft and getting rid of a potential stinker like Richardson in the process. To put it lightly, Richardson has not lived up to his billing as the league's next elite running back. With both the Browns and Colts this year, he hasn't been able to get anything going and has looked sluggish on just about every play. I understand that it's hard to be inserted into a new offense in the middle of the year, but Richardson wasn't doing anything with the Browns either. It's only the second year of Richardson's career and there is more than enough time for him to turn things around, but so far it's not looking good for his success as an NFL running back.

2.The Houston Texans collapse: I'll be the first to admit I wasn't that high on the Texans going into this season. They finished last season with a thud and I didn't have super-high expectations for them going into this season. That being said, I didn't expect the results to be anywhere near this disastrous. How they've lost 11 straight games after opening the year 2-0 is mind-blowing. This is a team that's current (healthy) roster includes the reigning defensive player of the year J.J. Watt, future hall-of-fame wideout Andre Johnson and a lockdown corner in Jonathan Joesph and they can't manage to secure a win for 11 CONSECUTIVE GAMES?!?!?!?! The funny part is on-paper this team isn't that bad. They rank in the top-half of the league in every major stat category except for rushing defense and even boast the second-ranked passing defense. The thing is that they just keep losing close games and can't take control of a game when it matters most. Aside from three early blowout losses to the Rams, Ravens and 49ers, this is a team that loses by single digits every week (five of their last eight losses have been by 3 points or less.) Really the only major problem this team has is at quarterback. Matt Schaub was a turnover machine before going out with an injury in Week 5 against the 49ers and while Case Keenum has shown some promise in relief, he hasn't been consistent enough to be a permanent solution at quarterback. They have suffered some key injuries to tight end Owen Daniels, linebacker Brian Cushing and running back Arian Foster, but those guys going down honestly hasn't been the knockout punch for this team. The Texans have competent backups at running back and tight end who have filled-in nicely and they managed to make the playoffs last year when Cushing went down for the year early on. Would they be in better shape if these guys were healthy? Absolutely. It's just that their absence is not the reason the Texans are stumbling so hard this season. 2013 is a huge and wildly unexpected setback for the Texans but they have enough talent in-place to turn things around rapidly if an effective quarterback is inserted into the system.

1. Nick Foles: The emergence of Nick Foles this year has been nothing short of stunning. We got a decent sample of what this kid could do last year when he came in relief of Michael Vick. While he wasn't bad, there certainly wasn't anything striking about Foles's performance on-the-field last year. Foles once again came into the fold this year when Vick went down with an injury except this time Foles was incredibly impressive. Foles tied the all-time single game touchdown record with 7 TD's against the Raiders and managed to throw 19 TD's before hurling his first INT of the year against the Lions yesterday. Foles has just looked really sharp and patient with his throws since coming into the lineup this year. While Vick seemed like the more obvious to choice run Chip Kelly's high-powered offense, it's Foles that has really made it pop and the team has really thrived behind his play. Foles's 2013 season has made Eagles owner Jeffrey Lurie's plea in early November that the team needed "a franchise quarterback" seem completely ridiculous. Mr. Lurie, you've found your franchise quarterback and you already had him on your roster. From backup quarterback to potential MVP candidate: Nick Foles has strung together the most surprisingly successful season out of anyone in the NFL in 2013. 

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