NFL football is on the horizon as the preseason got underway last night with the Hall of Fame Game in Canton, Ohio. With the regular season kickoff between the defending Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks and Green Bay Packers exactly a month away, there's no better time to start my annual NFL preview series than today. Over the coming weeks, I will share my thoughts on how I think the 2014 season will shake out for all 32 teams in the league. The AFC East gets the honor of starting things off and hopefully I'll be able to wrap this series up before the season starts this year. Hope everyone enjoys and feel free to leave your comments below!
Buffalo Bills: The Bills went into the
2014 offseason knowing what their two biggest needs were- rushing
defense and wide receivers- and addressed them in a major way. The
Bills picked up elite run-stuffing inside linebacker Brandon Spikes in free
agency and drafted Preston Brown-also an inside linebacker- to help bolster
their bottom 5 run defense from a year ago. The more drastic changes
were in the receiving corps as the team almost completely overhauled
their 2013 unit by trading their longtime top wideout Stevie Johnson to the 49ers, acquiring veteran Mike Williams from the Buccaneers, and most
notably, trading up in the draft to land top-rated prospect Sammy
Watkins. Watkins and Williams paired with second-year guys Robert
Woods and Marquise Goodwin, gives the Bills a potentially lethal
group of young receivers for second-year quarterback E.J. Manuel to
throw to. Most of the Bills success this year is going to come down
to how much Manuel progresses in his second year. Manuel showed flashes
of big potential last season and with more weapons around him this
season, I expect him to take a big step forward and prove his worth to this franchise. Despite all the
promise on the horizon, the Bills did suffer some major setbacks as
well. The team suffered a huge loss with All-Pro safety Jarius Byrd
leaving for the Saints in free agency. Aaron Williams is a good
player, but he isn't going to make up for the range and dynamic
playmaking ability Byrd brought to the team. The Bills were dealt
another blow defensively when star linebacker Kiko Alonso tore his
ACL during a workout in early July and will most likely miss the
entire 2014 season. Alonso is a rare talent that can do anything you
ask of him on the field and new defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz is
going to have a really difficult time finding someone on the roster
that's even half as good as Alonso to fill his spot in the lineup this season. The Bills can run the ball and get to the quarterback
with ease, but they aren't going to be a serious contender to snap
their league-high 14-year playoff drought unless they got more
consistent quarterback play and become a more well-rounded defense. The
Bills are certainly making strides, I just think they're still a
couple of years away from ending their incredibly long playoff
drought.
Miami Dolphins: The Dolphins are
probably happier than any other team in the league about starting fresh in
2014 after their half-decent season on-the-field in 2013 was derailed by the
Richie Incognito/Jonathan Martin bullying saga. Unfortunately for
the Dolphins, I don't expect 2014 to be much of a redemption season
for them. The Dolphins are not a bad
football team by any stretch of the imagination, it's just that they aren't quite good enough to be a true
threat in the league. Making matters worse for the Dolphins is the
fact that every team in the AFC East improved drastically (on paper
at least) this offseason, except for them. Their free-agent pick-ups
were subpar at best and their draft was arguably the worst of any
team in the NFL. The team focused their energy this offseason on
either overpaying good, but not great offensive lineman (Branden
Albert, Shelley Smith), bringing in burnout veterans who are shells
of their former selves (Cortland Finnegan, Louis Delmas) or banking
on a player to recreate a fluke successful season in 2013 with a highly
inferior offense (Knowshon Moreno). A lot of those move are low-risk
since they're only one or two years deals, but paying Albert $47 mil
($25 mil guaranteed) over five years is downright insane. Albert's
play has declined in each of the past few seasons and after a really
subpar 2013, I don't expect him to suddenly return to Pro Bowl form
in South Beach. The Dolphins only real hope for success this year
lies on the shoulders of quarterback Ryan Tannehill. Tannehill made a
monumental improvement in 2013 and if this hodgepodge of new
offensive lineman miraculously work well together and new offensive
coordinator Bill Lazor is really the mad genius he's made out to be,
I except him to get even better this season. I don't expect the
Dolphins to be anywhere near the bottom of the league, but with a
rapidly improving AFC East and essentially the same group of guys
that led this team to a 7-9 record in 2013, I don't expect the
Dolphins to be any better than mediocre in 2014.
New England Patriots: Head
coach/general manager Bill Belichick went against his ideals this
offseason by going into free agency and making some high-profile
signings that really shook up the identity of this football team.
Their uncharacteristically aggressive offseason tactics landed them a
pair of veteran cornerbacks in Brandon Browner and five-time Pro
Bowler/three-time All-Pro Darrelle Revis that give them a huge improvement in both talent and depth from a year ago. Revis more than makes up
for the offseason departure of shutdown corner Aqib Talib, giving the
Patriots the most talented corner they've ever had on their roster in
the Belichick era. Browner isn't quite as much of a game-changer as
Revis, but he adds a daunting presence and physicality that the
Patriots secondary has been sorely lacking for quite some time. The
addition of two corners might not seem like a whole lot, but it makes
this defense a lot more solid. The Patriots defense will be further
solidified by the return of veteran leaders Vince Wilfork and Jerod Mayo-who both went down with season-ending injuries early in the 2013 season. The Patriots rush defense was one of the worst in the league last year with Wilfork and Mayo on the sidelines and should return to form this year with both of them back in the lineup. The arrivals of Revis and Browner and return of veteran leaders Mayo and Wilfork to the unit paired with All-Pro safety Devin McCourty
and rising stars Chandler Jones and Jamie Collins makes this the most talented defensive unit the Patriots have had since their last Super Bowl
run a decade ago. The one area where the Patriots have some question marks is on offense. Tom Brady's
wizardy will ensure that some points are put on the board and things
go relatively smoothly, but I still don't trust a majority of the
skill players around him. Their receiving corps outside of
oft-injured superstar tight end Rob Gronkowski and possession
receiver extraordinaire Julian Edelman simply can't be trusted.
Veteran free-agent pickup Brandon LaFell brings a bit more stability
to the unit, but if they want to excel in the passing game, at least
one of their trio of second-year guys (Aaron Dobson, Kenbrell
Thompkins, Josh Boyce) is going to have to start performing on a more
consistent level. Dobson and Thompkins made a few plays last year,
but were far too inconsistent to make much of an impact. If
Gronkowski goes down-which is almost a guarantee based on recent
history- it's going to be up to the young guns in the receiving corps to keep this offense
afloat. Their rushing game isn't exactly top-notch either and
suffered a huge blow when their LeGarette Blount-their most trustworthy rusher from a year ago- signed with The Steelers in late March. In 2013, this was a top 10 unit, but those
numbers are highly skewed due to them absolutely murdering bottom 10
units and getting suffocated when they faced top-tier defenses.
Outside of the versatile Shane Vereen, none of their current running
backs can really be counted on. Stevan Ridley's fumbling problem is
well-documented and has persisted over the years while Brandon Bolden
is too erratic to make much of a difference. Unless rookie James
White is the next surprise dark horse stud, I don't expect their
rushing offense to come anywhere close to a top 10 finish again. It's
pretty much a guarantee that the Patriots will be one of the best
teams in the relatively weak AFC no matter what happens with injuries and their offensive production
level, but their chances of being a true title contender is going to
come down to whether or not their skill players can perform. Brady is a
special quarterback that can carry the whole team on his back ,but if
they want to hoist their fourth Lombardi of the 2000's, he's going to
need a little help from his friends at running back and wide receiver
and for Gronkowski- the only truly elite weapon the team possesses-
to stay healthy for the whole year.
New York Jets: Rex Ryan did the
unthinkable last season and coached one of the most talent-barren
rosters in the NFL to an 8-8 record. With a bevy of nice offseason pickups and continuity in the coaching staff, the
2014 Jets are poised to reach the next level. The 2013 Jets offense
was anemic at best and general manager John Idzik did his best to fix
that in free agency by picking up wide receiver Eric Decker and
running back Chris Johnson. Decker is exactly what the doctor ordered
for a Jets receiving corps that was led by Jeremy Kerley- who put up a whopping 523 yards in 16 games- a year ago. Decker
brings a huge red-zone presence and winning pedigree to a team that
needed a receiver to go to when they got inside the 20-yard-line.
Decker has faced his fair share of criticism going into this season
stating that he will fail with the Jets because he's going from
having a superstar in Peyton Manning as a quarterback to an unproven quarterback in Geno Smith and has never faced a team's top corner in his career thus far.
Personally, I think Decker's size and excellent hands will allow him
to do just fine as a number one wideout and he will be able to help
Smith progress in his second year as a starter. As for Johnson, his
presence will only improve a unit that was already one of the best in
the league without him. Johnson is not as explosive as he once was,
but he gives the Jets a number one running back they can trust who
can still produce huge plays from time to time and has never fallen short of 1,000 yards in the six years he's been in the league. Given that this is a
Rex Ryan-coached team, the defense was also given a facelift in the
offseason. The Jets once again spent their first-round pick on the
defensive side of the ball, selecting safety Calvin Pryor with the
18th overall pick in May's draft. Pryor gives the Jets
defense an enforcer in the middle of the secondary who also has the
range and coverage skills to make plays all over the field. With the
release of veteran cornerback and face of the secondary Antonio
Cromartie in March, Pryor has the intangibles and potential to be the
new leader of the Jets secondary right away. Just like their divisional foes up in Buffalo, the Jets success in 2014
is going to come down to the strides their quarterback can make in his second year
under center. With the inconsistencies and turnovers that plagued Smith's
rookie year, there's pretty much no where to go but up for the
youngster. Underneath all the turnovers and mental errors he made
last year, there were times were Smith looked like a legit NFL
starter who can make a real impact for this team. Another offseason
to grow mentally and physically and the addition of a veteran mentor
in Michael Vick should pay dividends for Smith going into this
season. I don't expect Smith to become a superstar this year, but I do
think he is fully capable of leading this squad to a playoff berth in 2014. The Jets have some question marks at quarterback and on
the back-end of their defense, but with the quality of coaching and the huge talent upgrade they've received from a year ago, this is a team that has
all the means to surprise in 2014.
Projected Standings for the AFC East
1.New England Patriots (12-4)
2.New York Jets (9-7)
3.Buffalo Bills (7-9)
4.Miami Dolphins (6-10)
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