My Preseason Predictions
1.New England Patriots (12-4)
2.New York Jets (9-7)
3.Buffalo Bills (7-9)
4.Miami Dolphins (6-10)
Actual Standings
1.New England Patriots (12-4)
2.Buffalo Bills (9-7)
3.Miami Dolphins (8-8)
4.New York Jets (4-12)
Buffalo Bills: Of all the teams that missed the playoffs in the AFC this year, no one impressed me more than the Buffalo Bills. Though missing the playoffs is certainly a disappointment, the Bills can at least take solace in the fact that this was their first winning season since 2004. Just like in 2013, the catalyst for this Bills squad is the defense. They once again led the league in sacks, picking up a mind-boggling 54 on the year. Their combination of edge-rushing from Mario Williams and Jerry Hughes and interior pass-rushing from Marcel Dareus and Kyle Williams made them damn near impossible to stop. There is not another front seven in the league that is even close to as lethal as the Bills. In addition to their pass-rushing dominance, the Bills also had one hell of a secondary. Despite lacking any big-name talent in the secondary, the Bills managed to have the third-ranked passing defense in the league. Free agent pickup Corey Graham was quietly one of the most dominant corners in the league this year, safety Da'Norris Searcy beautifully filled the void left by the offseason departure of perennial All-Pro Jarius Byrd and Leodis McKelvin continued to solidify his position as one of the best corners in the league before he went down with a broken ankle in Week 11 against the Dolphins. The scariest part about this Bills defense is that they were this good without 2013 Defensive Rookie of the Year runner-up Kiko Alonso in the lineup. With a two-way playmaker in Alonso back in the lineup next year, this defense should be even more dangerous. The Bills even showed some promise on offense this year as wide receiver Sammy Watkins lived up to his massive hype with an impressive rookie campaign that instantly solidified him as a number one wideout. Watkins may have been the star of the offense, but the likes of Robert Woods, Fred Jackson, Scott Chandler and Anthony "Boobie" Dixon all lived up to their billing as solid role players and stepped up to make a number of key plays throughout the year. These guys certainly aren't world beaters, but you can rely on them to perform when called upon. Really the only thing holding the Bills back is quarterback play. They made the baffling decision after a lopsided loss to the Texans in Week 4 to bench their 2013 first-round draft pick E.J. Manuel in favor of journeyman extraordinaire Kyle Orton. Manuel's numbers over the first month of the year (58% complete percentage, 5 TD's, 3 INT's, 80.3 QBR) were not nearly bad enough to get yanked. Orton's numbers in his 12 starts ended up being only slightly better (64% completion percentage, 18 TD's, 10 INT's, 87.8 QBR) than Manuel's. The decision to take away a year of Manuel's development to put in a washed-up veteran of nearly identical caliber doesn't make a whole lot of sense. If Orton was a grizzled veteran with a winning pedigree that could help them win now while Manuel continues to get acclimated to the NFL, the move would make sense. But since Orton is not even close to that type of guy, the move made no sense. The Bills drafted Manuel to be their quarterback of the future, you can't become that guy if you're spending the last three months of the season sitting on the bench. With Orton announcing his retirement last week, the Bills are going to be forced to turn the reigns over back to Manuel. It shall be very interesting to see how Manuel plays next year and if he learned anything from his unexpected removal from the starting lineup. With an elite defense and some nice weapons on offense, the future is certainly bright for the Bills. If they can get the quarterback position under control, they should be in great position to end their 15-year playoff drought in 2015.
Miami Dolphins: Just like 2013, the Dolphins managed to start hot and impress for the first 3/4 of the season, but ultimately fell apart down the stretch and missed the playoffs. Even with the disappointing finish, there was a lot to be excited about in Miami this season. Ryan Tannehill once again was able to improve from the previous season's number and easily had his best year in the pro's in 2014. Tannehill continues to show more poise and confidence under center, and is starting to become a really solid NFL quarterback. Aiding Tannehill in his career year was running back Lamar Miller and the receiver duo of Mike Wallace and Jarvis Landry. Miller had the breakout year everyone expected him to have last year while Wallace was much more comfortable in the system in his second year with the squad, and the rookie Landry gave Tannehill a reliable possession receiver that can be counted on at any point in the game. Like their quarterback, the running backs and wideouts on this squad are (for the most part) still very young. If Tanehill and co. continue to progress in a similar fashion in the coming years, they could easily become one of the most potent offenses in the league within a few years time. The back end of the defense was also a strength for this team as cornerback Brent Grimes had another excellent year and the safety trio of Reshead Jones, Louis Delmas and Jimmy Wilson were able to hold up pretty well despite injuries and early-season inconsistencies. The Dolphins late season collapse can once again be attributed to their offensive line play and inability to stop the run. The offensive line was not quite as bad on the whole as they were last year, but that's not saying much. Tackle Branden Albert proved to be a great addition to this unit and was playing at an All-Pro level until he went down with a torn ACL and MCL in early November. As soon as Albert went down, the o-line had a rapid decline. Dallas Thomas was arguably the worst lineman in football this year, getting slaughtered at both guard and tackle this season, rookie J'uwan James struggled mightily taking over Albert's spot at left tackle after fairing relatively well on the right side for the first half the year, and Mike Pouncey-the longtime glue of this unit- was forced to leave his natural position of center due to injuries and didn't transition particularly well to guard. Their rush defense down the stretch somehow managed to be every bit as their offensive line. The Dolphins rush defense wasn't exactly great in the early goings of the seasons, but once November hit, they became one of the worst units in the league. A combination of injuries and ridiculously poor tackling/missed assignments led to the Dolphins complete inability to stop the run in the last eight games of the year. The Dolphins have plenty of upside going into 2015, but they are going to need become more disciplined and fix their offensive line, and front seven woes before they can take the next step as a team.
New England Patriots: To be honest, I could've probably wrote the Patriots recap in September. As long as Tom Brady and Bill Belichick are in Foxboro, they're going to win the AFC East and be in the upper-echelon of the NFL hierarchy. While the end result was exactly the same, the road there was a little bit rockier than usual. Their usual cold start was accelerated this year as the entire team looked to be asleep for three of the first four games. The offense couldn't move the ball, the offensive line couldn't protect Brady and the allegedly improved defense was struggling hardcore. Their sluggish September was book-ended with a embarrassing 41-10 loss to the Chiefs on Monday Night Football. Their unraveling in Kansas City forced the media and many of the Patriots faithful to question whether or not Brady had lost his edge and if Belichick was still the same coach that brought this franchise three Super Bowl rings. Unsurprisingly, the Patriots quickly turned things around after their lackluster 2-2 start. From early October till the last weekend of November, the Patriots were seemingly unstoppable. They won all but one game over this span by at least 15 points, Brady was suddenly playing his best football in years, Rob Gronkowski was finally healthy and putting up huge numbers again, and the defense had finally lived up to its billing as the best the Patriots have had in the last decade. They came back down to earth after a post-Thanksgiving loss to the Packers at Lambeau Field, but they managed to finish strong with a 3-1 record in December and went onto to clinch the top seed in the AFC for the umpteenth time. While Brady's play and this much-improved defense were a big part of the Patriots success in 2014, the most essential component to this team was Gronkowski. Having Gronkowski healthy for an entire season for the first time since 2011 made a MASSIVE difference in the flow of this offense. With his elite receiving skills and utter dominance as a blocker, Gronkowski is the only player the Patriots have on offense (aside from Brady of course) that needs to be accounted for at all times. Not only does Gronkowski make a ton of plays himself, all the attention drawn on him creates opportunities for everyone else around him. This offense is a whole different unit when Gronkowski is on the field and that's never been more clean than it was this season. You certainly can't completely overlook their below-average running game once Stevan Ridley got injured, general lack of a pass rush when Chandler Jones was out with an injury for almost two months and their constant offensive line woes, but with their ability to put up a ton of points on the board, not get trampled on defense like they have for much of the past half-decade and most importantly, win a ton of games, these issues proved to be only minor in nature. As far as I'm concerned, this was easily the most complete Patriots squad since their last Super Bowl run in 2004.
New York Jets: And to think I thought this was a playoff team before the season started... On paper, The Jets were undoubtedly better than the 8-8 team from 2013. The great Rex Ryan was still at the helm, They brought in multiple high-profile free agents including Eric Decker and Chris Johnson to help out the offense and quarterback Geno Smith seemed bound to progress in his second year after his often tumultuous rookie campaign. Let's just say things didn't really work out. The Jets lost eight straight games after beating the Raiders in Week 1 and ended up finishing 4-12 on the year, which promptly led to the dismissal of Ryan and general manager John Idzik at season's end. Once again, it was the quarterback play that managed to derail any hopes of success that Jets had for this season. In his second year, Smith continued to be the same frequently rattled turnover machine who struggled to produce that he was in his rookie year. Smith was briefly benched in favor of Michael Vick, who fared just as poorly as the young gun in three starts. Once Smith returned to the lineup for last five games of the season, he played reasonably well and even managed to register the only perfect passer rating of the 2014 regular season in Week 17 against the Dolphins. Despite his respectable finish to the year, Smith is going to need to demonstrate consistency over an entire season before he can be considered the long-term starter for this team. The back-end of the defense didn't do the Jets any favors at the start of the year either. Injuries decimated the unit early on in the season, and it took many weeks of getting absolutely torched before they got acclimated to the game. While the same recurring problems hampered the Jets, they also possessed the same strengths they've had for years. Their running back rotation of Chris Ivory, Johnson and Bilal Powell was great and led to yet another top five finish for the Jets rushing offense. The Jets may lack a true workhorse back, but when you have a committee that works this well, it doesn't really matter. Their front seven, anchored by defensive ends Muhammad Wilkerson and Sheldon Richardson-once again applied a ton of pressure on opposing quarterbacks and was damn near impossible to run on. Richardson was just as good, if not better than he was a year ago when he picked up Defensive Rookie of the Year honors and Wilkerson was still disruptive as hell in a slightly down year for him. Going into 2015, The Jets need to address the overall lack of talent around Decker in the receiving corps, solidify this young secondary with some veteran talent and of course, pray to the football gods that Smith can improve under center. Even with their few major issues, there are far worse situations for a new head coach and general manager to inherit than the one in the Big Apple.
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