Thursday, April 30, 2015

2015 NFL Final Mock Draft (Draft Day) (Updated 4/30)

1.Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Jameis Winston, quarterback (Florida State)
It took me a long time to be sold on Jameis Winston as the number one pick and part of me is still skeptical that the Bucs will pull the trigger on a quarterback with a defensive-minded coach in Love Smith running the show. However, Lovie is coaching for his job right now and his best bet for keeping it is to take a chance on a potential franchise quarterback in Winston.

2.Tennessee Titans: Marcus Mariota, quarterback (Oregon)
In all my years of following the NFL Draft, I can't think of a more polarizing prospect than Marcus Mariota. Despite all of the uncertainty in how his style of play will translate to the NFL, there seems to be enough teams that believe in him to solidify his odds of being a high draft pick. While theTitans hold this pick right now, I don't believe they'll be the team that drafts Mariota with this pick. They're reportedly smitten with second-year quarterback Zach Mettenberger and given the overall lack of talent currently on their roster, they are a prime contender to trade this pick to the highest bidder to collect more picks later in the draft.

3.Jacksonville Jaguars: Dante Fowler Jr, outside linebacker (Florida)
For a second straight year, the Jacksonville Jaguars hold the pick that should help dictate the course of the entire first round. There's a lot of different directions they could go in on both sides of the ball, but Dante Fowler Jr. is the best player available that fills one of their needs. He's a pass rushing demon with a ridiculously high motor that should give the Jaguars the explosive presence on the edge that they've lacked throughout head coach Gus Bradley's tenure with the team.

4.Oakland Raiders: Kevin White, wide receiver (West Virginia)
Quarterback Derek Carr had a pretty impressive rookie campaign in Oakland working with a group of average wideouts. To help Carr take his game to the next level, they need to go out and get a top-level receiving prospect in this draft. West Virginia prospect Kevin White fits that bill to a T. His size (6"3, 215 lbs), top-end speed (4.35 40 at the combine) and immense yard-after-catch ability makes him an ideal candidate to be the immediate number one wideout on the upstart Raiders.

5.Washington Redskins: Leonard Williams, defensive tackle/end (USC)
The Washington Redskins may have spent a lot of attention on the defensive line in free agency by bringing in Terrence Knighton and Stephen Paea, but Leonard Williams has too much potential for them to pass up. Williams has the versatility to play anywhere on the line and a potent combination of power and explosiveness to make an immediate impact on a Redskins defense that desperately needs playmakers. 

6.New York Jets: Vic Beasley, outside linebacker (Clemson)
First-year head coach Todd Bowles arguably likes to blitz more than any coach in the league and the Jets currently lack a top-flight pass-rusher in their linebacking corps. While there's ample talent edge-rushing talent available at this spot in this draft, Vic Beasley makes the most sense here. He doesn't have the character or consistency issues of the other remaining top edge rushers on the board and his almost inhuman burst off the snap makes him an ideal candidate to flourish in Bowles' blitz-dependent defensive scheme. 

7.Chicago Bears: Amari Cooper, wide receiver (Alabama)
The big question for the Bears with this pick is whether they want to go with a defensive player to tighten up their 30th-ranked unit from a year ago or a wide receiver to replace the recently traded Brandon Marshall. Alabama wideout Amari Cooper is the best player available at this pick and would give the Bears another polished receiver to put alongside established star Alshon Jeffrey.

8.Atlanta Falcons: Alvin "Bud" Dupree, defensive end/outside linebacker (Kentucky)
The Falcons are in desperate need of a pass-rush after finishing with a league-low 22 sacks a year ago. Edge-rushing specialist Bud Dupree would be a very solid piece for the Falcons to build their pass-rush overhaul around. Aside from an ability to get to the quarterback, Dupree also possesses the versatility to drop back into coverage and lineup at multiple different spots on the field if needed, which is sure to woo new Falcons head coach Dan Quinn-who relied heavily on versatility during his tenure as the Seahawks defensive coordinator over the past two seasons.

9.New York Giants: Brandon Scherff, guard/tackle (Iowa)
The Giants offensive line was a bit better in 2014 after a tumultuous 2013 campaign, but Eli Manning still faced a lot of pressure and their run-blocking was sporadic at best. Brandon Scherff is a run-blocking machine with adequate pass-blocking ability who could come in and immediately start at either guard spot or right tackle and help this o-line get back on track after back-to-back shaky seasons.

10.St. Louis Rams: DeVante Parker, wide receiver (Louisville)
The Rams have quietly built up a very gifted roster through the draft the past few seasons. The one spot where they still need serious improvement is wide receiver, especially since 2013 first-round pick Tavon Austin has failed to live up to expectations thus far. DeVante Parker would give new quarterback Nick Foles a big, reliable target who is an absolute terror to defend in the redzone. Parker could very well serve as the piece that pushes the Rams from being perennially on the cusp of making the playoffs to a legitimate contender in the NFC.

11.Minnesota Vikings: Trae Waynes, cornerback (Michigan State)
If I was a gambling man, I'd say the Vikings are the team that's most likely to trade their first-round pick due to their recent history and the fact that their top needs (interior offensive line and defensive tackle) can easily be addressed later on the draft. However, this mock doesn't account for trades, so assuming they stay with this pick, I think they'll select Trae Waynes. Their corner depth is kind of lacking and pairing a bruising press corner like Waynes with the rapidly-rising Xavier Rhodes could give the Vikings one of the most deadly corner tandems in the NFL. 

12.Cleveland Browns: Danny Shelton, defensive tackle (Washington)
The quickest way to fix a terrible rush defense (the Browns were ranked dead last against the run a year ago) is to go out and get a big body to plug up the middle of your defensive line. At 6'2, 339 lbs, Danny Shelton is exactly the type of man to fill that role. Along with his imposing physical presence, Shelton has surprisingly great short-area speed for his size and has a knack for making plays from sideline-to-sideline, which is exactly what the Browns need to turn around their porous run D.

13.New Orleans Saints: Randy Gregory, outside linebacker (Nebraska)
In my eyes, there's no player harder to gauge in this draft than Randy Gregory. His athleticism and ability to rush the passer and defend the run with equal proficiency got labeled as a top five pick-caliber talent, but his inability to add weight to his 6"5, 235lb frame and positive marijuana test at the Combine has dropped his stock significantly in the past couple of months with some scouts around the league thinking he'll slip as far as the late 20's. I believe he'll end up going somewhere in between. Given their severe lack of talent in the front seven and vocal desire to select defensive players in this draft, The Saints are very likely to take a chance on a potential blue-chip prospect in Gregory.

14.Miami Dolphins: Ereck Flowers, tackle (Miami)
The Dolphins have brought in a number of receivers and corners for workouts leading up to the draft, but I still believe their greatest need is on offensive line. Ryan Tannehill has taken a beating the past few years and the team is going to need to start really investing in their offensive line to protect their newly-minted franchise quarterback from getting eviscerated almost every time he drops backs to pass. Ereck Flowers is a raw prospect who might not be ready to start at tackle right away, but if you give him a couple of years to develop his game on the interior line, he could blossom into a truly great tackle.

15.San Francisco 49ers: Arik Armstead, defensive tackle/end (Oregon)
The 49ers lost so many impact players on defense to retirement and free agency this offseason that it would be an absolute shock if they didn't take a defender with this pick. With his mammoth size (6"7, 292 lbs) and flawless fit in the 49ers three-defensive tackle scheme, Arik Armstead is a potential powerhouse defensive lineman that could very well make up for a lot of the crushing losses the 49ers have had over the last couple of months.

16.Houston Texans: Nelson Agholor, wide receiver (USC)
With Andre Johnson now out of the picture, the Texans are going to need another receiver to put alongside third-year standout DeAndre Hopkins. While there are much flashier wideouts with higher ceilings still on the board, Nelson Agohlor is an incredibly polished receiver with excellent route-running ability that fits Bill O'Brien's possession-based scheme perfectly.

17.San Diego Chargers: Todd Gurley, running back (Georgia)
During Phillip Rivers tenure with the Chargers, they've always had a workhorse back they could lean on. The top two backs currently on their roster are either too small (Danny Woodhead) or too inconsistent (Branden Oliver) to be elevated to bellcow status. Todd Gurley has the size, power and elusiveness to be a 20+ carry back in the league and would be a godsend for a Chargers offense that heavily leans on the run game.
   
18.Kansas City Chiefs: Cameron Erving, center/guard/tackle (Florida State)
The Chiefs had holes all over their offensive line last season and have gotten even weaker after center Rodney Hudson- their lone standout in 2014- departed for the Raiders in free agency. With his starting experience at every spot on the offensive line during his time at Florida State, Cameron Erving can be plugged in wherever he's needed and become an immediate starter.

19.Cleveland Browns: Jake Fisher, tackle (Oregon)
The Browns have been looking to move current right tackle Mitchell Schwartz to guard for a while now and drafting someone like Jake Fisher would allow them to do so. Fisher has rare athleticism for a tackle (he's a converted tight end) and should only further bolster this already excellent Browns line.  

20.Philadelphia Eagles: Breshad Perriman, wide receiver (Central Florida)
The marriage of Breshad Perriman and the Philadelphia Eagles just seems too perfect to not happen. Perriman's speed (he ran a 4.26 40 at the combine) and proven deep threat ability make him tailor made for Chip Kelly's uptempo offense.

21.Cincinnati Bengals: D.J. Humphries, tackle (Florida)
An interior defensive lineman or an edge rusher are very much in play here, but getting a new starting right tackle seems like the most likely course of action for the Bengals here. D.J. Humphries has been shooting up draft boards recently thanks to the precision of his footwork and generally solid pass protection skills. If ends up becoming the player many analysts expect him to be, could be the heir to the left tackle throne once perennial All-Pro Andrew Whitworth retires.

22.Pittsburgh Steelers: Kevin Johnson, cornerback (Wake Forest)
The Steelers are suddenly thin in the secondary following the retirement of cornerback Ike Taylor and safety Troy Polamalu last month. Wake Forest product Kevin Johnson is arguably the fastest rising defensive player in the draft and his man/press cover skills paired with great physicality for his size make a prime candidate to be the new number one corner for the Steelers.    

23.Detroit Lions: Malcom Brown, defensive tackle (Texas)
The Lions lost both anchors of their defensive line (Ndamukong Suh and Nick Fairley) this offseason, so interior defensive line is pretty much a lock to be the position they address with their first pick in the draft. Malcom Brown is a very disruptive presence with a knack for dragging ballcarriers down behind the line of scrimmage who should be able to make up for some of the run-stuffing ability lost with the departure of Suh and Fairley, and is a tremendous value pick at this point in the draft.

24.Arizona Cardinals: Shane Ray, defensive end/outside linebacker (Missouri)
I had Shane Ray as high as number five overall in my previous mocks, but concerns with a lingering toe injury and a marijuana citation earlier in this week lead me to believe he's going to endure a pretty steep slide on draft day. That fall should stop with the Cardinals at pick 24. The Cardinals need another capable pass rusher to push their good defense into dominant territory and Ray is as gifted at anyone in this draft at getting to the quarterback. If Ray can keep his head on his shoulders (which shouldn't be a problem in Arizona with Bruce Arians at the helm) and avoid being hampered by injuries, he could prove to be the biggest steal of the entire draft.

25.Carolina Panthers: Andrus Peat, tackle (Stanford)
The Panthers pretty much ignored their offensive line issues in last year's draft and proceeded to pay the price for it as Cam Newton got massacred all year long. I don't expect them to make that mistake again. Of all the lineman remaining on the board, Andrus Peat seems like the best choice to fit Carolina's system. Peat has the power and athleticism needed to protect a mobile quarterback needed like Newton and is arguably the most consistently solid pass-blocker in this entire offensive line class.

26.Baltimore Ravens: Marcus Peters, cornerback (Washington)
The Ravens porous cornerback play after Jimmy Smith went down with a foot injury midway through last season came back to bite them in the playoffs when poor corner play caused them to blow two separate two touchdown leads in a divisional round loss to the Patriots. While there are a number of corners considered to be relatively comparable talents at this point of the draft, Marcus Peters stands out a little bit ahead of the rest of the pack. Peters' upside as a potential shutdown guy should be enough for the Ravens to overlook the concerns about his character (he was kicked off the team at Washington University last November after arguing with head coach Chris Petersen).

27.Dallas Cowboys: Melvin Gordon, running back (Wisconsin)
Jerry Jones said in an interview earlier this week that despite the departure of leading rusher DeMarco Murray in free agency, running back is not a priority for the Cowboys in the draft this year. Given how large of a factor Murray played in the Cowboys success last season and the fact that their current starting running back is the ever-fragile Darren McFadden, I don't believe that for a second. There's absolutely no way the thought of an explosive open-field runner with big-play ability like Melvin Gordon being on the Cowboys isn't extremely enticing to Jones. Drafting a potential three-down stud running back like Gordon significantly increases the Cowboys of repeating their success from a year ago. If Gordon is available at 27 and they don't pick him, I may go into a severe state of shock in the middle of my living room.

28.Denver Broncos: Eddie Goldman, defensive tackle/end (Florida State)
The departure of Terrance Knighton in free agency was a gigantic loss for the Broncos front seven, especially since that the only remaining defensive tackles on their roster are veteran journeyman Vance Walker and Marvin Austin and the still developing Sylvester Williams, who was the team's first round pick in 2013. Eddie Goldman possesses a similar skill-set as Knighton (big-bodied run-stuffer who disrupts the line of scrimmage and can pass-rush when called upon) and would do wonders for the Broncos depth at the defensive tackle.    
29.Indianapolis Colts: Landon Collins, safety (Alabama)
The Colts are desperate for players for who can stuff the run and help out at the safety spot alongside Mike Adams, which makes Landon Collins a pretty obvious choice here. Collins is a safety with the mentality of the linebacker (think T.J. Ward) who is consistently excellent in run support and respectable against the pass. In other words, he'd be a huge upgrade over LaRon Landry, the Colts' starting free safety from a year ago.

30.Green Bay Packers: Eric Kendricks, inside linebacker (UCLA)
The Packers were so desperate for inside linebacker help last season after injuries that Clay Matthews was forced to move inside from his natural position of outside linebacker. After the release of longtime starter A.J. Hawk and departure of Brad Jones in free agency, they're even more desperate for depth at inside linebacker. Drafting an instinctive two-way linebacker in Eric Kendricks to command the middle of the field would solve this problem immediately and make this already efficient defense that much better in 2015. 

31.New Orleans Saints: Phillip Dorsett, wide receiver (Miami)
After trading away lethal deep threat Kenny Stills to the Dolphins to get inside linebacker Dannell Ellerbe, The Saints have no legitimate deep ball receiver on their roster. Phillip Dorsett has the straight-line speed to step into become the Saints new vertical threat as well as the yard-after-catch ability to be a menace in the short-to-intermediate passing game. 

32.New England Patriots: Ali Marpet, guard/center (Hobart)
It's been said before and I'll say it again, there is no team harder to predict the draft day actions of then the New England Patriots. When they actually hold onto their first-round picks, they almost always pick guys no one expected to be picked that high. Using that logic, I believe they'll select Ali Marpet this year. Marpet is a relatively under-the-radar guy projected by many to be a second or third picks, fills a huge needs at interior line and has the versatility to play multiple positions that the Patriots love.  
   
Round 2
33.Tennessee Titans-Jordan Phillips, defensive tackle (Oklahoma)
34.Tampa Bay Buccaneers-T.J. Clemmings, tackle (Pittsburgh)
35.Oakland Raiders-Eli Harold, defensive end/outside linebacker (Virginia)
36.Jacksonville Jaguars-Ameer Abdullah, running back (Nebraska)
37.New York Jets-Laken Tomlinson, guard (Duke)
38.Washington Redskins-Byron Jones, cornerback (Connecticut)
39.Chicago Bears-Damarious Randall, safety (Arizona State)
40.New York Giants-Carl Davis, defensive tackle (Iowa)
41.St. Louis Rams-A.J. Cann, guard (South Carolina)
42.Atlanta Falcons-Maxx Williams, tight end (Minnesota)
43.Cleveland Browns-Benardrick McKinney, inside linebacker (Mississippi State)
44.New Orleans Saints-Jalen Collins, cornerback (LSU)
45.Minnesota Vikings-Tre' Jackson, guard (Florida State)
46.San Fransisco 49ers-Paul Dawson, inside linebacker (TCU)
47.Miami Dolphins-Dorial Green-Beckham, wide receiver (Missouri)
48.San Diego Chargers-Cedric Ogbuehi, tackle (Texas A&M)
49.Kansas City Chiefs-Jaelen Strong, wide receiver (Arizona State)
50.Buffalo Bills-Denzel Perryman, inside linebacker (Miami)
51.Houston Texans-Derron Smith, safety (Fresno State)
52.Philadelphia Eagles-Eric Rowe, cornerback/safety (Utah)
53.Cincinnati Bengals-Michael Bennett, defensive tackle (Ohio State)
54.Detroit Lions-Duke Johnson, running back (Miami)
55.Arizona Cardinals-Jay Ajayi, running back (Boise State)
56.Pittsburgh Steelers-Owamagbe Odighizuwa, defensive end (UCLA)
57.Carolina Panthers-Shaq Thompson, outside linebacker/safety (Washington)
58.Baltimore Ravens-Devin Smith, wide receiver (Ohio State)
59.Denver Broncos-Clive Walford, tight end (Miami)
60.Dallas Cowboys-Ronald Darby, cornerback (Florida State)
61.Indianapolis Colts-Stephone Anthony, inside linebacker (Clemson)
62.Green Bay Packers-Alex Carter, cornerback/safety (Stanford)
63.Seattle Seahawks-Hroniss Grasu, center (Oregon)
64.New England Patriots-Justin Hardy, wide receiver (East Carolina)

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