2015 NFL Sophomore Risers and Fallers

By Chris Maitland and Liam Madigan-Fried

While it might not garner the same enthusiasm and attention from fans as a player's rookie year, an NFL player's second season is pivotal in discovering whether or not a player is going to enjoy a long, successful career or they'll be looking for work outside of the National Football League in the next few years. Here are our picks for the quarterbacks, running backs, receivers and defensive players that are poised to breakout and regress in 2015.  

Quarterback
Risers:
Chris: Derek Carr (Raiders)
Carr was the only quarterback from the 2014 class to start all 16 games in his rookie year and while he didn't put up eye-popping numbers (21 TD's, 12 INT's, 58.1 CMP%, 76.6 QBR), he generally took care of the football and showed steady improvement in his mechanics and pocket presence as the season went on. Carr's full season of experience along with the presence of a respectable offensive line that only got better with the addition of elite center Rodney Hudson in free agency and a retooled receiving corps led by respectable veteran Michael Crabtree and incredibly promising rookie Amari Cooper leads me to believe that Carr is in line for a star-making campaign in 2015.

Liam: Teddy Bridgewater (Vikings)
Bridgewater was my favorite quarterback from the 2014 class, and now he's my favorite to avoid the dreaded "sophomore slump" in 2015. A lot of people downplayed Bridgewater's skills prior to the draft due to his poor performance at Louisville University's Pro Day, but thankfully, he was able to up his game when the lights were on bright. Despite a continuing problem with interceptions (12 in 12 games started), Bridgewater improved noticeably down the stretch of the last three games of the season, averaging 8.7 yards per attempt to go along with a 72.2% completion rate in those contests. If Bridgewater can keep his mental errors to a minimum, he should be able to ride that late-season success into 2015. It also doesn't hurt that the Vikings added another vertical threat to receiving arsenal this season in Mike Wallace and Bridgewater now has the luxury of handing the ball to the greatest running back of the modern era in Adrian Peterson to take the pressure off his shoulders.

Fallers:
Chris: N/A
This may seem like a lazy decision on my behalf, but hear me out. I truly believe that all three projected second-year starters (Carr, Teddy Bridgewater and Blake Bortles) are going to make significant strides in 2015 and Johnny Manziel literally can not get any worse if he sees the field in 2015. The other notable quarterbacks from this draft class (Tom Savage, Aaron Murray, Logan Thomas, Jimmy Garoppolo*) have little chance of seeing the field this year-save for Garoppolo if Tom Brady's suspension remains in tact- and have either taken zero or very limited meaningful regular season reps, taking them out of the running for this dubious title. 

Liam: Blake Bortles (Jaguars)
Okay, so maybe I was a little overzealous when I predicted Bortles would be in the running for rookie of the year when he replaced the utterly bland Chad Henne after the first three games of last season. But to be fair, I wasn’t alone (or totally out of line) in believing the hype. Bortles has the rare combination of arm strength, size (6"5, 232 lbs) and freakish athleticism that NFL scouts drool over. Armed with those rare asseta, you'd think the Florida native would have been a little more pro-ready when he took the field. Unfortunately, his strong preseason performance in which he tore through second and third string secondary squads with his bullet-speed passes didn’t carry over into the regular season. Bortles had the horrible habit of staring down his primary targets, which led to him throwing 17 interceptions (tied with Drew Brees for third most in the league) in 13 games played. Despite the addition of touchdown-happy tight end Julius Thomas and the rise of second-year receiver Allen Hurns, a lot of Bortles' issues stem from his flawed throwing mechanics and footwork, a problem that is a lot harder to solve than just poor decision-making. The lackluster offensive line also won’t be much help in ensuring he has the time to make the good throws. My prediction is that it’s going to take Bortles at least another year before he can use his phenomenal athleticism to become a respectable NFL-caliber starter.

Running Back:
Risers:
Chris: Carlos Hyde (49ers)
If you even sort of pay attention to football, you know that the 49ers lost a majority of their best players to either retirement (Chris Borland, Justin Smith, Patrick Willis) or free agency (Chris Culliver, Mike Iupati, Michael Crabtree) this offseason. While a majority of the 49ers most significant losses came on the defensive side of the ball, the 49ers lost running back Frank Gore- who has been the indisputable rock of their offense for the past decade- to the Indianapolis Colts in free agency. With longtime assistant coach Jim Tomsula being promoted to head coach after the firing of Jim Harbaugh and a struggling quarterback in Colin Kaepernick under center, the 49ers seem primed to lean on the run in 2015, and Hyde is going to be the guy to takeover Gore's workhorse role. Hyde possesses the strength, vision and two-way capabilities that are needed to succeed as a running back in the NFL and has the benefit of having a pair of backups in Reggie Bush and Kendall Hunter that are either too rundown physically (Bush) or just simply are not good enough (Hunter) to significantly cut into his carries.     

Liam: Jeremy Hill (Bengals)
Honestly, how can you not believe in this kid? When Giovani Bernard went down in week 8, coach Marvin Lewis was forced to turn to Hill, an untested albeit promising rookie. Hill took full advantage of the opportunity given, ultimately ending the season with 1,329 total yards (1,124 rushing, 215 receiving) and 9 TD's. His ability to gain yards between the tackles, to the outside and in the passing game forces defenses to adjust their scheme whenever he’s on the field, making him one of the most versatile weapons not just of the sophomore class, but in the entire league. That versatility and promise isn’t lost on the coaching staff either, as Lewis elected to continue starting Hill over Bernard even after the veteran returned from injury. You can tell the organization’s faith in quarterback Andy Dalton is dwindling, especially with all the in-house hype over Alabama product A.J McCarron. The Bengals need a playmaker who isn’t totally reliant on Dalton’s scattershot accuracy and decision-making to get them wins in the postseason as well as in primetime; and to me, Hill could turn out to be that missing piece.

Fallers:
Chris: Tre Mason (Rams)
You really have to feel for Mason right now. After an impressive rookie season which saw him firmly secure and thrive in a starting role in the second half of the season after Zac Stacy and Benny Cunningham struggled out of the gate, The Rams used their first-round pick in 2015 on University of Georgia running back Todd Gurley. Even with Gurley coming off of a torn ACL that could jeopardize his availability at the start of the year, the rookie's similar yet superior skill set and standing as a first-round pick all but guarantees that Mason will be relegated to a situational role and inevitable loss of production in his second NFL season.

Liam: Carlos Hyde (49ers)
Of any prediction on my list, this is the one I believe is the most likely to bite me in the ass because I’m not necessarily basing it on overall skills. Hyde displayed great athleticism in limited action last season behind trusty veteran powerhouse Frank Gore. After Gore was lost in free agency to the Colts, there was a lot of people around the league that thought that Hyde was going to have his number called a lot more often this season, but based on all the losses the 49ers suffered since Gore departed at the beginning of free agency, I don't believe that will be the case. The 49ers now completely lack big name playmakers on offense (save for newly acquired wide receiver Torrey Smith) and are going to have to reach further into their barrel of tricks in order to drive the ball down the field this season. That means Hyde is probably going to be losing a lot of potential touches to the veteran pair of Reggie Bush and Kendall Hunter. Bush gives Colin Kapernick another option in the passing game with his versatility out of the back field, and Hunter on film seemed to display much better decision making than Hyde when hitting the holes, which is typical for a veteran at this point in his career. Hyde probably won’t face a dreadful year, but he’s most likely in for a rough ride with a 49ers offense that’s going to need all the veteran help it can get after a tumultuous offseason full of early retirements and free agency departures.

Wide Receiver/Tight End:
Risers:
Chris: Brandin Cooks (Saints)
Cooks was off to a pretty good start to his rookie year (623 Total YDS, 4 TD'S in 10 games) before suffering a season-ending thumb injury in Week 11 against the Cincinnati Bengals. With a receiver-friendly offense and a division loaded with terrible secondaries, Cooks is in the best position of anyone in this talented-loaded receiving class to make a serious leap in his sophomore season. Even with a suddenly stout run game headed by 2014's surprise breakout star Mark Ingram, the Saints are still the most pass-happy team in the league and with the departure of start tight end Jimmy Graham and primary deep threat Kenny Stills via trades with the Seahawks and Dolphins respectively this offseason, there's sure to be a plethora of opportunities for Cooks to prove himself as a top wideout this season. 

Liam: Eric Ebron (Lions)
After being touted as a potential big play maker coming into his first year, Ebron wasn’t quite the impact piece the Lions were hoping for, accumulating just 248 yards on 25 receptions. However, if you read between the lines (stat lines that is), you can actually find plenty of promise in the North Carolina product’s rookie resume. Even though he wasn’t stacking up the receptions game after game, Ebron proved himself to be a very capable deep threat whenever he was able to get the space. He ended the season on a high note with a 22-yard reception in a Week 17 loss to Green Bay to put his offense in position to score. His 6"4, 248-lb frame gives the strong armed, but often inaccurate quarterback Matthew Stafford a big target who can go up high for contested catches. With a year of experience under his belt in an NFL level and glowing reports from coaches and teammates in mini-camp/OTA’s, look for offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi to integrate the young tight end in a way that can take the pressure off of Stafford-who often sees his most critical mistakes made whenever he can’t find Tate or Johnson open down field.

Fallers:
Chris:  Jarvis Landry (Dolphins)
This pick was nothing short of agonizing to make. There's a number of guys at this position (Kelvin Benjamin, Sammy Watkins, Odell Beckham Jr.) that could very well hit a wall this season because of injury concerns or ineffective quarterback play, but I ultimately decided to go with Landry because of his limitations as a player. Landry is strictly a possession receiver who lacks the size (5"11, 202 lbs) and post-catch abilities to be a top-tier receiver. With the Dolphins acquiring elite deep threat Kenny Stills and redzone targets Jordan Cameron and rookie DeVante Parker during the offseason, Landry's role in the offense this season seems like it's going to be limited to a handful of short, non-meaningful dump-off passes per game.

Liam: Marqise Lee (Jaguars)
I hate to bring the Jaguars down, but their 2014 draft class isn’t exactly panning out the way they had hoped it would. Lee showed sporadic moments of promise throughout the season, but he was mostly held back by knee problems that hindered his ability to separate from coverage. I’ll give the kid his credit, he ended the season with over 400 receiving yards, but when you go back and look at his game tape, the consistency just isn’t there. Quarterback Blake Bortles' accuracy is already a cause for concern for any receiver on this roster, but this season, Lee will be competing to earn even the number three spot on the depth chart behind Allen Hurns, Allen Robinson, and rookie Neal Sterling. If Lee is going to have any chance of living up to his second-round standing, he’s going to have to take the time to overcome a whole lot of obstacles. But this is the NFL, and if there’s one thing we know that this league is lacking, it’s patience.

Defensive Front
Risers:
Chris: Ryan Shazier (Steelers)
It took a lot for recently-departed Steelers defensive coordinator Dick LaBeau to voluntarily start a rookie right out of the gate. Shazier was one of the rare guys to pick up that distinction, which I believe says a lot about his talent. Shazier played excellent throughout the preseason and the first two regular season games last season before suffering a knee injury and high ankle sprain, that kept him out of nine games and hampered him for the rest of the season. With a full offseason to recover and ample opportunities to shine in a mostly young, unproven defense, Shazier should thrive in 2015. Despite his relative lack of size for the position (6"1, 237 lbs), Shazier has the instincts, field-stretching speed and excellent tackling ability to be a potential menace at inside linebacker.
     
Liam: Aaron Donald (Rams)
Despite an underwhelming season by number two overall pick Greg Robinson, the largely under-the-radar 13th overall pick of the draft put up phenomenal rookie numbers in his first professional season. Combining for 48 tackles and 9 sacks, Donald proved early on that he was a force to be reckoned with in an already upward trending Rams defense. As many analysts have said since the start of last September, the St. Louis Rams are a franchise quarterback away from being a true contender in the NFC West. Still, many questions remain on the offensive side of the ball in the gateway to the west, particularly at wideout. And, until the newly acquired Nick Foles has the chance to prove that he’s the guy who can lead this franchise out of the division's basement, Coach Fisher will have to rely on his defense to keep games within a manageable margin of points to keep their heads above water. Look for Donald to continue his dominance by playing an even more pivotal role as a premier defensive tackle in a division that lives in fear of the mighty Marshawn Lynch.

Fallers:
Chris: DeMarcus Lawrence (Cowboys)
This was another tough call as just about every high-level front seven player from this draft class either seems like a star in the making (Khalil Mack, Aaron Donald, C.J. Mosley) or underwhelmed a year ago and appear to destined to do the same in 2015 (Jadeveon Clowney, Dee Ford, Marcus Smith). Lawrence admittedly didn't do much in 2015, spending most of the year buried behind journeyman Jeremy Mincey on the Cowboys depth chart. But the buzz on Lawrence picked up after a strong showing in the playoffs (2 sacks, 2 fumble recoveries, and a forced fumble in 2 games) and he's largely viewed as a strong breakout contender for 2015. Personally, I don't buy any of the hype on Lawrence. Everything about his game from his speed to his technique is average at best and not being able to surpass a mediocre player like Mincey speaks volumes about who he is as a player.


Liam: Jadeveon Clowney (Texans)
One of the most hyped first overall picks of the modern football era, and only three measly tackles to show for it thus far. What made Clowney so dangerous during his days at South Carolina was his explosiveness off the snap, which gave both guards and tackles barely any time to block him before he was in the backfield. Unfortunately, after undergoing surgery to repair a microfracture in his right knee, it remains to be seen if he can retain the speed that made him terrorize college o-lines and quarterbacks for three years. The Texans already have a fallback option with Vince Wilfork joining the team in free agency, and the enigmatic J.J Watt continuing to blow through any double, triple or quadruple team opposing offenses throw at him with ease. If Clowney is able to regain even 1/10th of his explosive power off the snap, this defensive line will make the Texans the team to beat in the AFC South. But, more than likely, Coach Bill O’Brien will probably want to protect his first round investment by easing him back into the defensive scheme, most likely lining him up as a pass rusher at outside linebacker or defensive end in certain situations. Until Clowney proves he can still play at a high level after having microfracture surgery, I wouldn't hold your breath for him to put up double-digit sacks.

Secondary
Risers:
Chris: Calvin Pryor (Jets)
Pryor had a well-documented rough start to his career as injuries in the Jets secondary forced him to move from his natural position of strong safety to free safety, which exploited his deficiencies in pass coverage and eventually led him to being benched for a five-game stretch from late October to early December. With a move back to strong safety and the Jets bringing in one of the league's finest defensive back developers in Todd Bowles as their new head coach, 2015 could mark a massive turnaround for Pryor. Pryor is a punishing hitter who was pretty great against the run on the rare occasion he was allowed to venture into the box last season and with the much improved lineup of guys around him in the secondary this year that will largely keep him out of coverage situations and allow him to stick to his strength as a run-stuffer, Pryor should get the opportunity to prove why the Jets spent such a high-draft pick on him a year ago.

Liam: Malcolm Butler (Patriots)
Chris couldn’t disagree with me more on this, but then again he’s a Bears fan, so what does he know. In fact, one of Butler’s best games of the season came during New England’s blowout win vs the Windy City furry animal things, when he deflected two of Jay Cutler’s famous deep balls. Despite not putting up any interceptions until his game sealing one versus the Seahawks in the Super Bowl, Butler showed good prowess vs the best of them , most notably breaking up four passes against Peyton Manning in the Pats blowout Week 9 win over the Broncos. Praise for the young defender also couldn’t be higher coming out of mandatory mini-camp (he was suspended for being late to OTAs, a matter the NFLPA is currently filing a grievance for). Coaches and teammates are lauding him for his intelligence and dedication to preparation. It was his ability to recognize the slant route formation from watching Seahawks game film that thrust the West Alabama product into the spotlight in the first place. Whether you think this kid is a fluke or not, he’s going to get the chance to prove himself this season, especially following the departures of Darrelle Revis, Brandon Browner, and Kyle Arrington. We’ll have to wait and see if the hero of New England is the real deal or merely lighting captured in a bottle.

Fallers:
Chris: Malcolm Butler (Patriots)
Butler went from the realms to obscurity to god-status after his incredible interception to secure the Patriots victory in Super Bowl XLIX. Butler has spent the last five months after the play that changed his life forever being repeatedly put on a pedestal and is largely considered to be the Patriots de facto number one corner after Darrelle Revis, Brandon Browner, Kyle Arrington and Alfonzo Dennard all left the team this offseason. However, I think the Cinderella story of the undrafted kid from Western Alabama will come to an ugly end as soon as the 2015 season starts. Butler has never lined up against a top-tier wideout in his career (on his fateful interception he was covering Ricardo Lockette, the fourth option in a middling Seahawks receiving corps) and aside from the Super Bowl, has done absolutely nothing to show that he's capable of being a quality starting corner in this league.

Liam: Calvin Pryor (Jets) 
Another underwhelming product of the first round, Pryor was able to surmount a respectable number of tackles (60), but was often burned by wide receivers when forced to play coverage, failing to put up even a single interception and only defensing two passes in his 11 starts. Although he has all the physical attributes to do well at the pro level, the free safety out of Louisville is going to have to cut down on the mental errors if he wants to be a real contributor in a suddenly frightening Jets defense. The additions of Darrelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie should take some of the pressure off of him, but unless he can step up his coverage game, quarterbacks are going to have a field day throwing on him in deep center field .