Sunday, February 21, 2016

2015 NFL Recap: AFC West

 My Preseason Predictons:
1.Denver Broncos (10-6)
2.San Diego Chargers (8-8)
3.Kansas City Chiefs (7-9)
4.Oakland Raiders (6-10) 
Actual Standings
1.Denver Broncos (12-4)
2.Kansas City Chiefs (11-5)
3.Oakland Raiders (7-9)
4.San Diego Chargers (4-12)

Denver Broncos:
Team MVP's: OLB Von Miller, ILB Brandon Marshall, CB Chris Harris Jr., DE/DT Derek Wolfe, S Darian Stewart

-After pondering over it since the end of the Super Bowl, I can now say with absolute confidence that the 2015 Broncos are the most dominant defense I've seen in my lifetime. If you sit back and break down this defense on film or paper, you won't be able to find a single hole. Their pass-rush was suffocating, their linebackers were fast and versatile and their secondary was full of guys that can cover and tackle with equal proficiency. It's honestly kind of astonishing how much talent general manager John Elway has brought in over the years and I imagine they'll be using a majority of their available cap space to bring back as many of the free agents as they possibly can (defensive end Malik Jackson, inside linebackers Brandon Marshall and Danny Trevathan and Super Bowl MVP Von Miller are all set to hit the open market this offseason).

-The Broncos defense has been great for a few years now, but their sudden ascent to dominance can be directly linked to the presence of first-year defensive coordinator Wade Philips. Philips installed a system that allowed their plethora of gifted pass-rushers more freedom to rush the quarterback and made their secondary damn near impossible to throw on. Phillips' creative and aggressive scheme allowed the Broncos to finish first in the league in sacks (52), forced fumbles (25) and defensive TD's (4). Phillips was the best coordinator in the NFL this season by a wide margin and it'll be very interesting to see if they maintain this insanely high level of play in the future.

-Peyton Manning needs to hang it up. The man that took the field in 2015 was not the five-time MVP, 14-time Pro Bowler we've come to know all too well over his 18-year career, it was a physically-drained old man that couldn't do a vast majority of the things he was able to do in the past. All of the injuries that have plagued him over the years finally caught up with him in 2015 and it caused him to throw with next-to-no-velocity or accuracy. Watching the shriveled-up ghost of Manning play was more than enough to confirm that his days in the NFL were numbered, but perhaps the strongest indicator of his ineffectiveness is the fact that he threw almost twice as many as interceptions (17) than touchdowns (9) in the 10 games he played this season. This was the first time since his rookie year in 1998 that Manning threw more INT's than TD's in a season and it was by far the worst TD: INT ratio (0:5) he's posted in his career to-date. If Manning decides to come back next year after winning his second Super Bowl Ring in a decrepit state this season, he's officially lost his mind.

-The whole "C.J. Anderson is a workhorse stud running back" movement can officially be put to rest. While Anderson had a few impressive performances over the course of the season (his 113-yard, 2 TD performance against the Patriots in Week 13 was the clear highlight), he was a mostly average back that struggled to break through defenses on a consistent basis. To be fair, minor injuries and porous offensive line play put a bit of a damper on his effectiveness, but I still firmly believe that this season proved that Anderson doesn't have what it takes to be an uncontested starting running back in the league.

-The Broncos need to do everything in their power to retain Brock Osweiler. The fourth-year quarterback finally saw the field in 2015 when Manning went down with plantar fasciits in Week 10 against the Chiefs and he looked pretty comfortable leading the offense. His athleticism and arm strength provided their offense with the spark it sorely lacked with a physically-limited Manning running the show and that ability to orchestrate a legitimate vertical attack allowed the Broncos to go 5-2 with him as a starter. It's hard to tell if Osweiler is a surefire franchise quarterback after just seven starts, but his familiarity with the system and the four years he spent under the tutelage of Manning make him the clear choice to be the Broncos next starting quarterback.
 
Kansas City Chiefs:
Team MVP's: S Eric Berry, OLB Justin Houston, ILB Derrick Johnson, WR Jeremy Maclin, TE Travis Kelce

-I don't think there has been a better comeback story in the history of sports than that of Eric Berry. Less than a year after being diagnosed with Hodgkin's lymphoma, Berry returned to the field and put together the best season of his thoroughly impressive career so far. I admire Berry so much for his tremendous courage, dedication and perseverance and he deserves every penny of the huge contract he's going to receive in free agency this offseason.

-It got a decent amount of attention once they clinched a playoff berth, but I think a lot of people are downplaying just how impressive of a mid-season turnaround the Chiefs made in 2015. This was a lifeless squad that looked like they're were on the brink of being one of the worst teams in the league after six games and they somehow managed to right the ship and become the first team in NFL history to make the playoffs after starting the season 1-5. Pulling off a 10-game winning streak full of huge statement wins after starting off the season on such a lackluster note is a huge testament to the resiliency of their players and the strength of head coach Andy Reid and his coaching staff.

-Ever since he took over as the full-time starter in 2010, it seemed like the Chiefs offense would be helpless without Jammal Charles. This year, the Chiefs proved that longstanding theory to be false. After Charles went down for the with a torn ACL in their week 5 contest with the Bears, the tandem of Charcandrick West and Spencer Ware kept the Chiefs entrenched as one of the most potent rushing attacks in the NFL. While neither have of them have the elusiveness or burst that has made Charles one of the best running backs of the past decade, West and Ware came out of nowhere in 2015 to prove they're rock-solid backs who could easily start for just about any team in the league.

-As expected, the addition of wide receiver Jeremy Maclin dramatically improved the Chiefs passing offense. Maclin's numbers may have been down a bit from his career season with the Eagles in 2014, but he was still able to give the Chiefs the legitimate vertical threat they've lacked since Dwayne Bowe's last productive season in 2011 and helped Alex Smith set new career highs for passing yards and yards per attempt (Maclin's 1,088 yards accounted for 31.2% of Smith's passing yards, only Julio Jones and Odell Beckham Jr. accounted for a higher percentage of their starting quarterback's passing yards this season). If the Chiefs can acquire one more valuable asset to throw alongside Maclin and tight end Travis Kelce, their passing game could turn into something really special.

-While there's no denying that he put together a solid season, cornerback Marcus Peters did not deserve Defensive Rookie of the Year. If you simply looked at the flashy stats (INT's and passes defensed), Peters seems like a worthy candidate given his high totals in both of those categories (8 INT's and 26 passes defensed, both league highs). However, Peters also surrendered 8 TD's (second most of any corner in the league) and got burned almost every time he played a top-tier wideout (A.J. Green, DeAndre Hopkins, Emmanuel Sanders) during the season. Peters appears to be on the right track for a successful career, I just feel like some of the hype surrounding him is being inflated due to his gaudy INT numbers.     

Oakland Raiders:
Team MVP's: OLB/DE Khalil Mack, QB Derek Carr, T Donald Penn, G Gabe Jackson, DT Dan Williams

-Second-year quarterback Derek Carr quietly put together one hell of a season in 2015. The young signal-caller made huge strides in every facet of his game and was able to parlay his growth as a passer and leader into a 3,987 yard, 32 TD season. Carr hit a bit of a rough patch in the last five games of the year (2-3 record, 55.8% CMP PCT, 72.2 QBR 7 of his 13 INT for the season), but he was still mightily impressive in 2015 and I firmly believe that the Raiders have found their quarterback of the future.

-The breakout campaigns of Carr and running back Latavius Murray can directly be linked to the Raiders excellent offensive line play. Center Rodney Hudson proved to be well worth his massive free agent deal with his stellar debut season as a Raider, guard Gabe Jackson built on his impressive rookie campaign to become one of the most punishing run-blockers in the league in his sophomore season and after a second straight productive season with the Raiders, grizzled veteran Donald Penn has officially proved his disastrous 2013 season with the Buccaneers was a fluke. This Raiders have the most underrated offensive line of the league and I don't expect them to be slept on for much longer. 

-He may have become the 16th wide receiver since 1970 to put up over 1,000 receiving yards as a rookie, but I still don't know what to think of Amari Cooper. For every highlight reel-worthy play he made, he would ruin a chance at another one with a poorly-ran route or an ugly drop (Cooper was tied for second-most drops in the league with 10). Cooper clearly still has a lot of time to develop and none of the flaws in his game are things that can't be corrected over time, I'm just not sure if he's going to transform into the transcendent receiver he was touted to be prior to the start of this season.

-The jump that outside linebacker/defensive end Khalil Mack made from his rookie year to his second season was simply ridiculous. Mack was unstoppable as both a run-stuffer and pass-rusher in 2015 as he picked up 77 tackles and 15 sacks (second-most in the league) and ended up becoming the first player to ever make the Associated Press All-Pro first team at two different positions. With Mack's emergence as a superstar and a talented, young supporting cast anchored by nose tackle Dan Williams and promising rookie defensive end Mario Edwards Jr., the Raiders front seven could become one of the best in the league within the next couple of years.

-As good as Mack, Williams and the rest of the front seven were, the Raiders horrendous secondary prevented them from being one of the league's best defenses. Third-year cornerback and colossal draft bust D.J. Hayden continues to be a major liability in coverage, slot corner T.J. Carrie showed some serious growing pains in his first season as a starter and strong safety Larry Asante regressed tremendously after a decent season in 2014. With another hole opening up in the secondary with the retirement of Charles Woodson, the Raiders need to make obtaining secondary talent a priority in the draft and free agency this season. 

-I couldn't do a Raiders recap without giving props to the great Charles Woodson, who announced his retirement from the league after 18 seasons at the conclusion of 2015. The 39-year old Woodson continued to deify Father Time in his final season in the league by being an aggressive safety with field-stretching speed and a knack for creating takeaways (his 5 INT's were tied for sixth most in the league). Woodson is the rare all-time great player to go out with a bang instead of a whimper and the consistent high level of play he exhibited throughout his career further solidifies his place as one of the greatest defensive backs to ever play the game.
San Diego Chargers:
Team MVP's: QB Phillip Rivers, CB Jason Verrett, WR Keenan Allen, OLB Melvin Ingram, RB Danny Woodhead 

-You have to feel for Phillip Rivers. Despite playing at a consistently high level and throwing for a career-high 4,792 yards in an offense that was almost completely devoid of playmakers, the Chargers still ended up finishing 4-12 on the year. Rivers' 2015 season is the perfect foil to the widely-accepted notion that good quarterback play is guaranteed to translate into wins in the NFL.

-Aside from the Ravens, no team in the NFL suffered more crucial injuries on offense than the Chargers this season. Star wide receiver Keenan Allen and center Chris Watt both suffered season-ending injuries in Week 8 against the Ravens while their starting left guard Orlando Franklin, wide receiver Stevie Johnson and left tackle King Dunlap all missed between six and 10 games on the season. These injuries led to a severe lack of continuity on an already talent-deprived offensive line group and a complete lack of weapons in the passing game. The sheer number of impact players that went down on a unit that was already relatively strapped for talent ruined any chance of the Chargers offense being effective in 2015.

-Unlike fellow first-round rounder Todd Gurley, rookie running back Melvin Gordon's transition to the NFL was not even close to being seamless. Gordon was indecisive and sluggish as a runner and had a major issue with ball security, fumbling six times in the 14 games he appeared in. Gordon's play was so bad that he ended up losing a significant amount of touches to veteran pass-catching specialist Danny Woodhead, who surprisingly emerged as one of the few reliable contributors on the Chargers 26th-ranked scoring offense this season. While the offensive line woes very well could've very impacted his development, Gordon's weak rookie year should still be a cause for major concern for the Chargers organization.

-With the exception of a All-Pro/Pro Bowl caliber season from second-year stud cornerback Jason Verrett and a breakout campaign from fourth-year outside linebacker Melvin Ingram, the Chargers defense was flat-out awful this season. The defense finished in the bottom half of the league in every major category except pass defense, where the strong performance of Verrett, slot corner Patrick Robinson and the ever-reliable veteran free safety Eric Weddle allowed to them finish in 14th. This unit's overall ineffectiveness can be linked  to a number of different players, but the biggest culprits by far were defensive end Kendall Reyes and cornerback Brandon Flowers. Reyes' below-average pass-rushing and complete inability to stop the run made him one of the weakest starting defensive end's in football this season while Flowers reverted back to his atrocious 2013 form after an excellent 2014 where he was one of the most consistently dominant shutdown corners in the league. This Chargers D may have been less than stellar in 2015, but the organization and its fans can be happy that this is a very young unit (seven of their 11 starters have been in the league for four years or less) full of players that don't appear to have come anywhere close to reaching their respective ceiling's yet. 

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