94th Academy Award Predictions

Best Picture:

Belfast

CODA

Don't Look Up

Drive My Car

Dune

King Richard

Licorice Pizza

Nightmare Alley

The Power of the Dog

West Side Story

Projected Winner: CODA

Longtime frontrunner The Power of the Dog losing to CODA would be the funniest possible ending to this year's awards season. Becoming the 1st streaming studio to secure a Best Picture win has been a top priority for Netflix over the past 5 years (just look at the absurd volume of prestige projects they release every fall) and Apple is in a prime position to beat them to the history books with their 1st ever nomination. If CODA does indeed win, it would prove the belief that the Academy wanted to honor a hopeful, crowd-pleasing film this year wasn't a meritless rumor and that streaming titles do indeed have a place in their swanky club after all. 

Best Director:

Kenneth Branaugh (Belfast)

Jane Campion (The Power of the Dog)

Ryusuke Hamaguchi (Drive My Car)

Paul Thomas Anderson (Licorice Pizza)

Steven Spielberg (West Side Story)

Projected Winner: Jane Campion 

Unless Campion's questionable comments about the Williams sisters during her Critic's Choice Award acceptance speech a few weeks back caused some Academy members to switch their votes, she's a shoo-in. Campion is one of the most respected auteurs working today that currently lacks a Best Director Oscar on their resume and her direction has widely been hailed as the standout element of The Power of the Dog.  

Best Actor:

Javier Bardem (Being the Ricardos)

Benedict Cumberbatch (The Power of the Dog)

Andrew Garfield (tick, tick.. Boom!)

Will Smith (King Richard)

Denzel Washington (The Tragedy of Macbeth)

Projected Winner: Will Smith

Smith's ability to knock off Benedict Cumberbatch at the Brit-friendly confines of the BAFTA's killed any potential for an upset bid to develop, so the widely beloved star will finally get his hands on the Oscar that alluded him for the inaugural 30+ years of his career.

Best Actress:

Jessica Chastain (The Eyes of Tammy Faye)

Olivia Colman (The Lost Daughter)

Penelope Cruz (Parallel Mothers)

Nicole Kidman (Being the Ricardos)

Kristen Stewart (Spencer)

Projected Winner: Jessica Chastain

There's been some chatter in industry circles this week about how the vocal support Penelope Cruz has received from members of the Academy's international branches could result in her securing a shocking upset victory. While Cruz swooping in at the last minute would make for the perfect chaotic climax to a Best Actress race that has lacked a consistent frontrunner since the Kristen Stewart hypetrain abruptly petered out after the fall festival circuit came to a close in October, Chastain's SAG and Critic's Choice wins are still enough for her to maintain the slight favorite status she's recently earned.

Best Supporting Actor:

Ciaran Hinds (Belfast)

Troy Kotsur (CODA)

Jesse Plemons (The Power of the Dog)

J.K. Simmons (Being the Ricardos)

Kodi Smit-McPhee (The Power of the Dog)

Projected Winner: Troy Kotsur

Unlike Best Picture, this is a category where CODA will undoubtedly make history. Kotsur's Oscar win should make a huge impact on how deaf and other disabled actors are viewed in Hollywood moving forward as well as provide him with a steadier stream of high-end roles than he's had in the past.

Best Supporting Actress:

Jessie Buckley (The Lost Daughter)

Ariana DeBose (West Side Story)

Judi Dench (Belfast)

Kirsten Dunst (The Power of the Dog)

Aunjanue Ellis (King Richard)

Projected Winner: Ariana DeBose

Along with Smith, DeBose is the only actor to have a 100%-win rate for the awards that they were eligible for this season, and it would be a monumental upset if anybody ended her perfect record on Sunday. Not only does DeBose serve as the most prolific scene-stealer in West Side Story, her winning an Oscar for playing the same role that her co-star Rita Moreno won for in the original 1961 West Side Story movie adaptation is the exact kind of sentimental narrative that the Academy will want to lean into in a year where they're desperately trying to boost the ratings.

Other Projected Winners:

Best Original Screenplay: Kenneth Branagh, Belfast

Best Adapted Screenplay: Sian Heder, CODA

Best Animated Feature: Encanto

Best International Feature: Drive My Car

Best Documentary Feature: Summer of Soul (...Or, When the Revolution Could Not Be Televised)

Best Cinematography: Greig Fraser, Dune

Best Score: Hans Zimmer, Dune

Best Song: "No Time to Die" by Billie Eilish (No Time to Die)

Best Costume Design: Jenny Bevan, Cruella

Best Film Editing: Joe Walker, Dune

Best Makeup and Hairstyling: The Eyes of Tammy Faye

Best Production Design: Dune

Best Sound: Dune

Best Visual Effects: Dune

Best Animated Short: Robin Robin 

Best Documentary Short: The Queen of Basketball

Best Live Action Short: The Long Goodbye