Houston Texans
2021 Record: 4-13 (3rd in AFC South)
Head Coach: Lovie Smith (1st season)
Notable Additions: CB Steven Nelson, DE Jerry Hughes, G A.J. Cann
Notable Departures: QB Deshaun Watson, S Justin Reid, QB Tyrod Taylor
Biggest Reason for Excitement: They Were Somehow Able to Get a Hefty Trade Return for a Serial Sexual Predator
Trading Deshaun Watson wasn't feasible last season as his dozens of civil sexual misconduct cases were still in the process of being litigated, so the Texans paid him millions to sit out from games and occasionally workout at their facility. About a week into the new league year back in March, Watson's civil cases weren't turned into criminal investigations and within hours of the court being adjourned, some NFL teams reinforced their immortality by calling the Texans about Watson. On March 18th, the Browns become the winner of this disgusting sweepstakes and handed over a whopping 6 draft picks (1st rounders in 2022-24, a 3rd rounder in 2023 and 4th rounders in 2022 and 2024) for Watson.
Regardless of which side cooked up this particular offer (I believe it was the Browns because they were the only reported suitor that was desperate and dumb enough to move that kind of capital in a deal for Watson), there's no chance that the Texans brass expected a haul of this size. Watson may be an elite QB that is on the cusp of entering his prime at age 27, but this is a guy who is likely to be barred from playing a football for at least the next calendar year and hasn't taken a meaningful snap since the end of the 2020 season.
Unloading Watson is an extraordinary win-win for the Texans as they liberated themselves from the inescapable awful PR vortex that surrounds the team this serial predator is employed by and got a ton of picks to help them move their rebuild forward from a team that is probably going to continue to stink for the next 2 seasons. Guard Kenyon Green and running back Dameon Pierce-who are both expected to play heavy snaps this season-have a chance to move the pendulum for this deal further in the Texans direction while Watson sits and if there's any justice in the world of football, both of them will show out right away.
Biggest Reason for Concern: Cal McNair and Jack Easterby Continue to be Inept, Untrustworthy Dickheads
Outside of the Watson deal finally materializing and a draft that was pretty widely praised by people around the league, it was another head-scratching shitshow of an offseason for the Texans. The clear standout among their flurry of questionable moves came very early on with the firing of David Culley. Culley leading the 2021 Texans to 4 wins should've earned him some Coach of the Year votes. He was set up to fail with a garbage roster and the messiness of the Watson situation looming over his head and yet this team was far more competitive than they had any right to be. Culley's unwarranted dismissal after 1 year on the job is just the latest example of Cal McNair and Jack Easterby showing no respect for the people they employ. It's honestly kind of a miracle that Lovie Smith, Pep Hamilton and Dino Vasso stuck around-the former two of which were promoted to head coach and offensive coordinator respectively after serving as DC and QB coach last under Culley-considering what the brass just did to the man that brought them to Houston.
Free agency ushered in another collection of puzzling moves. Young defensive standout Justin Reid leaving this rebuilding situation for the greener pastures of Kansas City is a sting that couldn't been avoided, but everything else felt directionless and unjustifiable. Steven Nelson is a weird stopgap corner option for a team that already had some passable vets (Desmond King, Tavierre Thomas) kicking around their roster, signing multiple ex-Bills (Jerry Hughes, Mario Addison) that are in their mid 30's feels like a short-sighted move that will take valuable reps away from Jonathan Greenard, Jordan Jenkins and fellow free agent pickup Ogbonnia Okoronkwo and inserting A.J. Cann into a starting guard spot after watching him put together a largely pedestrian, injury-riddled 7 season tenure with the division rival Jaguars is either a sign of how little they think of 2019 draft pick Max Scharping-who has played fine over the past 2 seasons or how little time they spent watching Jags game film over the past 7 seasons.
To be fair, the 2022 Texans are almost certainly going to be better than the 2021 team. Smith has 2 previous tours as a head coach under his belt opposed to Culley who didn't even have any coordinator experience prior to taking a head gig, Hamilton is a more innovative, capable OC than Tim Kelly-who got ousted at the same time as Culley and the overall roster is a bit better than it was last year. But still, it's hard to argue that this team isn't being set up to fail.
Their roster is still a very bizarre mix of young guys (Davis Mills, rookie Derrick Stingley Jr., about 10-12 others that figure to start or play key rotational roles this year), journeyman who couldn't get consistent reps anywhere else (Chris Conley, Kevin Pierre-Louis, M.J. Stewart), and super old vets (Hughes, Addison) looking to collect another 17-34 game checks before they ride off into the sunset, the talent void is still woefully apparent at most spots (take a look at their linebackers and offensive line outside of Laremy Tunsil) and the AFC on the whole figures to be greatly improved from a year ago. And when Smith gets thrown to the wolves in another year or two, who is the hell is going to want to come work for a couple of chuckleheads like McNair and Easterby? This organization has been a mess mired by dysfunction, ineptitude and a blatant lack of respect for the people that work for them since McNair took over for his father in 2018 and brought Easterby into the fold and even if GM Nick Casserio ends up putting together a few good drafts in a row, no in-demand coaching candidate is going to seriously considering taking a job with a team that is being run by such clueless, shitty people.
Key to Reaching Their Ceiling: Davis Mills Continues to Surprise People with His Play
Going into 2021, there were so many takes about Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson, Trey Lance, Justin Fields and Mac Jones swirling around that any thoughts about Mills got buried. There may've been some people that thought he would replace stopgap journeyman Tyrod Taylor at some juncture, but people largely viewed the Stanford product as a developmental prospect that the Texans decided to kick the tires based on his high school pedigree (Mills was a highly-touted prospect before he went to Stanford and produced middling numbers/win totals), the direness of Watson's situation and the lack of a 1st round pick that would've allowed them to select one of the aforementioned guys that were all off the board by the time pick #16 rolled around.
Well, Mills earned 11 starts by season's end and pretty clearly outplayed every guy from this class besides Jones as a rookie. While the Texans only won 2 games he started and he did chuck his fair of costly INT's (10), Mills showed terrific poise and accuracy (66.8 CMP%) in the pocket and did more than enough good things in these losses to earn a shot to be the long-term starter for this team.
Personally, I have my doubts about Mills' talent level (he strikes me as a Gardner Minshew or Taylor Heniecke-type that is passable as a fill-in, but not good enough to be a full-time starter) and think that he's getting a bit too much praise by simply not being completely awful last season. However, he surprised people last year with his play and it's well within the realm of possibility that it could happen again this year.
Hamiliton is one of the finest shapers of QB's working in the pros today and anybody that can put up a high completion percentage while throwing from the pocket behind a questionable offensive has a set of tools that could be molded into something truly impactful in the future. People thought Mills was going to be an elite QB one day and it would be a great narrative for Mills himself and the Texans to see that potential finally get unleashed at the pro level, especially when you consider the set of circumstances that brought him to Houston in the first place.
Bottom Line:
Like the Lions in the NFC, the Texans are at way too early of a stage in their rebuild to be viewed as a threat to exit the league's basement right now.
Indianapolis Colts
2021 Record: 9-8 (2nd in AFC South)
Head Coach: Frank Reich (5th season)
Notable Additions: QB Matt Ryan, CB Stephon Gilmore, S Rodney McLeod
Notable Departures: QB Carson Wentz, WR T.Y. Hilton, S Khari Willis (retired)
Biggest Reason for Excitement: The Front Office Continues to Make Smart Moves
Since Chris Ballard arrived in 2017 to clean up the messes that Ryan Grigson created including most notably significantly shortening Andrew Luck's career by giving him zero offensive line help from 2012-15, the Colts have had a pretty impressive track record of personnel moves that have made this team better in the long run despite not quite hitting the heights that the Grigson/Chuck Pagano tandem achieved (1 AFC Championship Game) so far. Heading into a vital 2022 offseason that saw them needing to tweak the roster after they stunningly missed the playoffs after failing to win 1 of their final 3 games and having to tap a replacement for longtime DC Matt Eberflus-who accepted the Bears vacant head coaching position and took most of the team's defensive staff along with him, Ballard once again identified his team's issues and addressed them in a logical, savvy manner.
After a month or so of searching following Eberflus' departure, Gus Bradley was brought into to be the new DC. While his past 2 seasons with the Chargers and Raiders haven't gone overly well, Bradley is a veteran coach who prides himself on having physical, aggressive defenses and his system helped unlock the full potential of Maxx Crosby-which could be great news for a promising upstart like Kwity Paye. Inheriting a Colts group that is deeper and more talented than his recent squads-particularly on the backend-should also help boost the middling-to-below-average overall numbers Bradley's groups have posted over the past 2 seasons.
In terms of on-the-field moves, Ballard was even sharper. Ballard and HC Frank Reich deserve props for quickly realizing that Carson Wentz didn't have the leadership skills or on-field effectiveness to cut it as their starter long-term and moved him before free agency even started. Getting a pair of respectable draft picks in return from Washington (2nd and 3rd rounders this year that turned into WR Alec Pierce and TE Jelani Woods) made the move even sweeter.
Considering the current construction of their roster, the Colts needed to find another veteran quarterback to take the reins of their offense following the failed Wentz experiment. Through a combination of value (all it took was a single 3rd round pick to land him) and fit, the Colts secured the best possible option in Matt Ryan.
Ryan is the polar opposite of Wentz as he's a well-respected vocal leader that doesn't have many limitations as a passer and can probably handle leading his team to 1 victory in the final 3 games to secure a playoff berth if called upon. There are some questions about his ability to win in the playoffs-especially outside of a domedor warm weather setting and how much longer he can play at a respectable level (he's currently 37), but at least for now, he's a clear upgrade over Wentz that should immediately solve the Colts single biggest roster problem.
Outside of landing Ryan, Ballard's focused on bringing in vets with some gas left in the tank to come in and fill their vacant starting roles. Stephon Gilmore at only $7 mil guaranteed per season for the next 2 years is a terrific value signing that should at the bare minimum represent an improvement over what the respectable but not overly great Xavier Rhodes gave them over the past 2 seasons, Rodney McLeod is still a functional starter who provides some pop and timely pass breakups at the strong safety spot and as much as he's prone to disappear over the course of a game, Yannick Ngakoue can be relied on to get 8-10 sacks per season as a secondary pass-rusher. As long as they don't fall victim to the injury bug, these moves should help them clear the small hurdles that prevented them from going to the playoffs last year.
Biggest Reason for Concern: Jonathan Taylor Wearing Down and/or Getting Injured
The Colts announced over the weekend that star running back/reigning NFL rushing leader Jonathan Taylor will sit for the entirety of the preseason. Considering that Taylor stayed healthy for all of last season and he completely understands Frank Reich's offense, this is the right call. Taylor is too important to this team to risk him getting hurt in a meaningless game like his fellow 2020 RB class member J.K. Dobbins was in last year's preseason finale.
Even with this positive announcement, the Colts still have to live with the fear of Taylor getting injured and/or wearing down this season. Taylor is only 23, so it wouldn't be surprising if he came out of this season unscathed, but when you've been handling an obscene 300+ touch workload for at least the past 5 seasons of college and pro ball, that doomed fate becomes more likely by the day. Bellcows have short life spans in this league and nobody ever knows when that shit is going to stop, so the Colts should appreciate Taylor's contributions to their club while they can.
With Matt Ryan under center, the prospect of Taylor being shelved long-term in 2022 isn't quite as dire as it was last season, but he's far too vital to the functionality of their offense for them to just gracefully brush off his absence. The Colts passing game is still far too dependent on Michael Pittman Jr. to be highly effective and whatever combination of Nyhiem Hines, Philip Lindsay and Ty'son Williams the team would use as a replacement for Taylor wouldn't nearly as potent or consistent as what Taylor's dynamic pairing of power, patience and home-run hitting speed brings to the table. Everybody from Jim Irsay down to the concession people at Lucas Oil Stadium need to cross their fingers that Taylor remains healthy and productive this season. No matter how cute Reich gets with game planning or how feisty their defense is, this team isn't built to contend as currently constituted without Taylor registering 1,800+ scrimmage YDS and 15+ TD's.
Key to Reaching Their Ceiling: Matt Ryan Being a Steady Hand
After watching Wentz piss away the 2021 season with his ultraconservative play that rarely included passes that were more than 10-12 YDS downfield and gift for ensuring that every turnover he commits is back-breaking and inexplicable, there's been plenty of vocal rejoicing about the arrival of Ryan. That level of jubilation is completely understandable. Let's face it: If Ryan was under center last season, they just wouldn't have suffered those losses that kept them out of the playoffs and who knows what this team could've done with a functional QB once they got there.
As valid as all of the positive hoopla surrounding the arrival of Ryan is, there are plenty of reasons to believe that Ryan has quietly regressed in recent years. He hasn't won more than 7 games in a season since 2017, his TD total hasn't cleared 26 since 2018 and his gunslinger luck is at its worst rate since 2013-15 as he's posted double digit INT's in 3 straight seasons. Worst of all, he did all of this while throwing to receiver groupings that are all collectively stronger than the Michael Pittman Jr./Alec Pierce/Parris Campbell/Mo Allie-Cox group that he's set to work with in Indy this year.
All the Colts need to take a step forward is a steady hand at QB and Ryan has been just that for the bulk of his career. The presence of a potent running game, decent offensive line and very good defense immediately puts him in a better spot to succeed than he was in during his final 3 years with the Falcons, which on paper at least makes a return to form seem like a pretty strong possibility. Considering what's at stake for Reich, Ballard and Irsay after last season's disappointment, they better hope that the change in scenery is all Ryan needed to recapture his reliably solid form.
Bottom Line:
The Colts fell just shy of the playoffs last season and I believe with the marginal improvements they made to the roster along with the Titans regression, they'll get over the hump this year.
Jacksonville Jaguars
2021 Record: 3-14 (4th in AFC South)
Head Coach: Doug Pederson (1st season)
Notable Additions: G Brandon Scherff, WR Christian Kirk, CB Darious Williams
Notable Departures: C Brandon Linder (retired), LB Myles Jack, G Andrew Norwell
Biggest Reason for Excitement: A Competent Coach is Running the Show!!!
Urban Meyer's tenure as Jaguars head coach failed in quicker and more spectacular fashion than even the most outspokenly cynical Meyer skeptics expected it to. After hurricane Urban tore through Duval County with his unprofessionalism, comical ego and staggering inability to grasp the difficulty of the pro game, the arrival of the milquetoast, Super Bowl winning Doug Pederson feels like a historic blessing. Pederson's unphased God-loving California surfer vibe and ability to actually coach at the professional level should immediately endear him to the locker room. Trent Baalke's continued presence in the front office along with trying to get this team to regroup after dealing with a truly insane 2021 season is probably going to make things tough in the interim, but Pederson just showing up and being a pro at what he does will eventually bolster their morale and execution level of this entire roster.
Biggest Reason for Concern: Trevor Lawrence
Trevor Lawrence got dealt a hilariously bad hand as a rookie. Having Darrell Bevell and Brian Scottenheimer be the sensei's overseeing your introduction to an NFL offense while your embarrassment of a head coach is quickly realizing that he can't hack it in the pros isn't conducive for playing good football. Having to learn a new offense for a 2nd straight year in exchange for having those 3 bozos flushed out of the Jaguars organization has got to be a worthwhile trade for him.
As much as the odds were stacked against Lawrence as a rookie, the seemingly universal sentiments that his struggles last year were solely caused by the inept operation feel a bit too premature. There were a lot of times last season where Lawrence looked completely overwhelmed running a pro offense. He regularly rushed throws, struggled to get in sync with his wideouts and displayed erratic touch on his throws. All of these things shine through in his numbers (59.6 CMP %, 12 TD's, 5 lost fumbles, a league-high 17 INT's) and it's not exactly hard to deduce why they were only able to win 3 games when the quarterback was playing like this for 17 games.
Clearly having a shitty staff, offensive line and questionable receiving corps made things more difficult for Lawrence, but some of these issues are problems with his game that are worth sounding the alarm over-particularly since those roster issues still largely remain intact (they basically just swamped out a couple offensive lineman and D.J. Chark for Christian Kirk) under Pederson. The reality is that Lawrence's reputation could just being boosted by his title run at Clemson back in 2018 and the kid isn't the franchise QB he's been pegged to be since he was 19. Learning a new system for the 2nd straight year and overcoming the scarring of his 2021 campaign gives Lawrence a 2-year grace period before any takes of real weight can be formed about his long-term trajectory as a pro, but until he cleans up at least some of the glaring issues with his game, balking at anybody that shows any doubt towards his ability to suceed at the pro level is asinine.
Key to Reaching Their Ceiling: The Young Guys Step Up
The Jaguars were able to make some surprisingly strong free agent signings (Brandon Scherff, Darious Williams) for a team that is coming off the double whammy of losing a ton of games and being a toxic circus in the locker room. However, this particular group of players along with the other egregiously overpaid vets they inked to long-term deals (Kirk, Foyesade Olokun, Folorunso Fatukasi, Zay Jones) and a smart dice roll on an oft-injured tight end who can be a high-value redzone asset when healthy (Evan Engram) aren't good enough to move the needle forward by much.
The group that could power the Jags into the realm of overachievement is their rookie and sophomore talents. As outlined in the previous paragraph, it all starts with Lawrence shedding some of his bad habits and making notable strides after his disastrous rookie campaign. Elsewhere on offense is pretty quiet, although the return of Travis Ettienne could prove to be massive as his dual-threat skill set paired with his familiarity with Lawrence could help take a big burden off the young QB's shoulders and rookie center Luke Fortner has some big shoes to fill at the spot that Linder locked down for the past 8 seasons.
Defensively, on the other hand, is a treasure chest of untapped potential that new DC Mike Caldwell-whose mentor/longtime employer is Todd Bowles-could have a lot of fun playing around with. On the front 7, #1 overall pick Travon Walker should benefit from playing alongside an established edge talent in Josh Allen that will be able to bear the brunt of the highest leverage pass-rushing opportunities while he refines his game and fellow 1st rounder Devin Lloyd is the type of all-around linebacker that could eat in a blitz-happy system that has plenty of athleticism upfront.
Shifting over to the secondary, Tyson Campbell and Andre Cisco could end up holding the keys to the standing of this entire group. Campbell held up pretty well as a starter last season-surrendering 53 receptions on 79 targets while registering 2 INT's and 10 passes defensed- while Cisco looked like a legit ballhawk in limited snaps as a rookie and could take a huge leap now that's he set to become a starter in year #2.
The Bengals proved last year what good can happen if the young guys play their asses off and while the Jaguars corps isn't quite as loaded as that group, there is the potential for a huge leap if the aforementioned players and a few unspoken wild cards (Chad Muma, Walker Little, Jay Tufele) that aren't currently set to play significant roles can come in and radically change the fortunes for a wretched team that's registered back-to-back #1 overall picks with their high level of play.
Bottom Line:
Doug Pederson will do enough to ensure this team doesn't post the worst record in the league for a 3rd straight year. Other than that, another big misery stew appears to be simmering in Jacksonville.
Tennessee Titans
2021 Record: 12-5 (1st in AFC South)
Head Coach: Mike Vrabel (5th season)
Notable Additions: WR Robert Woods, TE Austin Hooper, G Jamarco Jones
Notable Departures: WR A.J. Brown, WR Julio Jones, ILB Jayon Brown
Biggest Reason for Excitement: Mike Vrabel is Built for Adverse Situations
Mike Vrabel has no time for emotions like "panic", "concern" and "uncertainty" when it comes to his football team. This man just earned Coach of the Year honors by navigating a comical number of injuries and COVID woes that depleted his team of the bulk of its best players for several stretches of the 2021 season. A defense that might actually kind of stink save for Kevin Byard and Jeffrey Simmons, a front office that basically gave away their young star WR before they even really tried to sign him and a middling veteran quarterback who derailed the Titans chance to move onto a 2nd AFC Championship Game in the last 3 seasons all by himself may prove to no match for a man who has made a coaching career off thriving when people didn't expect him to.
Biggest Reason for Concern: The Makeup of Their Wide Receiver Group
The Titans may be built like a smashmouth 80's team that doesn't put any sort of real value around the passing game, but that doesn't grant them the luxury of avoiding the passing game entirely. Having the ability to make plays through the air or at least establishing the threat to make a play if need be is imperative to being a true top-tier team in the league. Given the current construction of the receiver group in the wake of Brown's departure, they might not have either of those things.
Acquiring Robert Woods from the Rams to be a 1B checkdown option felt like a great move in late March when the deal was made, but after Brown got traded and he moved over to the de facto 1A slot, shit got a lot murkier. Woods is now 30, tore his ACL last November and has only enjoyed success in a supporting role with the Rams. Without another proven option beside him, he could regress back to the 600-700 YD per year player he was in Buffalo at the start of his career and a return to that type of output wouldn't make him particularly useful for the Titans.
Any concerns about Woods are small potatoes compared to the full-blown panic that has formed around 1st round pick Treylon Burks after what can only be described as a disastrous start to his tenure in Nashville. A mere couple weeks after he was drafted, Burks made headlines when he failed a conditioning test and was subsequently booted out of minicamp by Vrabel. Things didn't get any better in training camp as reports have been circulating about lost he looked during practice and that carried over to the preseason opener versus the Ravens last week where Burks was getting run with the 3rd stringers and saw fellow rookie WR Kyle Phillips-who was selected in the 5th round-enter and exit the game before he did. Considering that Burks was billed as this versatile Deebo Samuel-esque weapon that could become the instant focal point of an offense during the pre-draft process, Burks' performance thus far has to be giving the Titans some deep regrets about using this pick on him.
This leaves two wild cards as the "safest" bets to save the Titans WR productivity: Phillips and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine. Phillips earned his fans in scouting circles after some strong pre-draft workouts that showcased his high-end speed/unsung route running and he's looked good at the camp thus far out of the slot, but his college career at UCLA was pretty unremarkable outside of his 10 TD senior year and drops are a bit of a concern (he dropped 6 passes last season).
Westbrook-Ikhine has the big advantage of being the only projected starter that has experience in this system and playing with Tannehill. He also played pretty decently when he was forced into the top WR spot during the Titans peak injury/COVID period last November-including a 7 REC/107 YD performance against the Texans in Week 11. As raw and inconsistent as Westbrook-Ikhine still is heading into year #3, don't be surprised if he gets a lot of the passing looks-particularly early on.
When the dust settles on this season, Jon Robinson and the rest of the Titans brass could end up regretting trading Brown, getting a ton of heat of drafting Burks and/or receive praise for finding some diamonds in the rough to be their new top WR's. The options are pretty much limitless and there will be a lot to discuss regardless of what materializes.
Key to Reaching Their Ceiling: A Healthy Derrick Henry
Given the absurd volume Derrick Henry has received for much of his career dating back to high school, the Titans were granted some very good fortune when the star back managed to stay pretty healthy throughout his NFL career. That luck ran out when Henry broke a bone in his foot during a Week 8 contest with the Colts and didn't return until the playoffs-where he was tremendously ineffective (20 CAR/62 YDS) in a loss to the Bengals.
What this 9-game stretch without Henry confirmed wasn't exactly shocking: he is the engine that makes this entire team go. Sure, Dontrell Hillard and D'Onta Foreman had some good games in relief and the team went 6-3 without him, but they just weren't the same machine they are when Henry is out there.
Henry's reliably high productivity keeps their mediocre defense fresh, allows Tannehill to operate in his play action happy place at least 75% of the time and terrifies defenses with his punishing rushing style that miraculously increases in intensity as the game goes on. If Henry-who is now 28 and will turn 29 at the end of the regular season in January- can return to this form now that he's had 8+ months to recover from his foot ailment, the Titans will be able to compete with anyone in the league. If he gets hurt again, the entire Titans offense is going to lose its entire identity and the intimidation and fluidity that comes with it. And considering the current makeup of this team and murkiness of their future, they can't afford to have the centerpiece of their entire operation compromised or sidelined at any point this season.
Bottom Line:
Going from the #1 AFC seed to missing the playoffs entirely would be a shocking decline that the Titans seemed primed to make unless Henry can seamlessly return to his monstrous form.
Projected Standings:
1.Indianapolis Colts (11-6)
2.Tennessee Titans (8-9)
3.Jacksonville Jaguars (5-12)
4.Houston Texans (4-13)
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