Eastern Conference
1.Milwaukee Bucks: Even after getting absolutely run over in the playoffs last year by the Heat, it's hard not to buy in on the Bucks returning to the top of the East. Adding Jrue Holiday instantly makes their offense better without losing the defensive ferocity that former starting point guard Eric Bledsoe brought to the floor on a nightly basis, the new crop of role players (Bobby Portis, D.J. Augustin, Torrey Craig, Bryn Forbes) fill all their scoring/energy/defensive needs off the bench and Giannis/Khris Middleton are as good as any star tandem in the league at lighting up the scoreboard.
2.Miami Heat: The reigning Eastern Conference Champions are unquestionably the grittiest, best coached team in this conference and with the valuable playoff experience their rising young stars like Bam Adebayo, Tyler Herro and Duncan Robinson picked up during their Cinderella run in the Bubble, it wouldn't be at all shocking to see them return to the Finals this season.
3.Boston Celtics: As ugly as their exit from the playoffs was this past season, the Celtics are far too balanced and strong on both ends of the floor to completely write off as dark horse title contenders. Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown should be able to take another step forward as a tandem-particularly on the offensive end of the floor, the addition of a physical post presence in Tristan Thompson could help fix the rebounding/paint defense woes that has derailed many of their recent playoff runs and the prospect of having someone being able to come in and hit some 3's off the bench on a consistent basis (Jeff Teague, rookies Aaron Nesmith and Payton Pritchard) is a welcome glimmer of hope for a team that's been relying on the notoriously streaky shooting of Marcus Smart to fill that role for years now.
4.Toronto Raptors: Basically copy and paste what I just said about the Celtics-except that the Fred VanVleet and Pascal Siakiam aren't as lethal of a young duo as Brown and Tatum and they're arguably in a worse place than they were a year ago with the departures of Serge Ibaka and Marc Gasol in free agency (Gasol's replacement Aron Baynes is a perfect fit with this roster though).
5.Brooklyn Nets: The trajectory of the Nets entirely depends on the health, effort levels and on-floor chemistry of Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant. A finish as high as 1 or as low as 7 or 8 seem equally possible.
6.Philadelphia 76ers: While Doc Rivers is a notable improvement over Brett Brown at head coach and unloading Al Horford's monster contract gave them the flexibility they needed to bolster their bench (they acquired Seth Curry, Danny Green, Dwight Howard and Terrance Ferguson following Horford's trade to OKC), this 76ers team as currently constructed lacks the depth, chemistry and crunch time-tested star players to be taken seriously as a top-tier team in the East.
7.Indiana Pacers: The Pacers have had the misfortunate of being stuck in no man's land over the past several seasons with a roster that's solid enough to compete with anyone in the regular season yet not dynamic enough to go far in the playoffs. Unless Victor Oladipo can fully regain his pre-quad tendon tear form or someone else from their starting lineup (T.J. Warren, Malcom Brogdon, Domantas Sabonis, Myles Turner) ascends to star status, they'll remain in the frustrating space yet again in 2020-21
8.Atlanta Hawks: After a couple of years of letting their young guys run the show, the Hawks made a flurry of moves this offseason that should help take their rebuild to the next level. Bogdan Bogdanovic is a sharpshooter that fits perfectly on a team that takes pride in chucking 3's, Rajon Rondo and Danilo Galinari bring some much-needed veteran leadership and might even introduce the concept of defense to Lloyd Pierce's run-and-gun squad and although he was added at the trade deadline last season, the long-awaited ATL debut of Clint Capela should provide some much-needed rebounding/rim-protection/post scoring for a team that has had struggled mightily in those areas since the Al Horford/Paul Milsap/Kent Bazemore/era came to a close .
9.Washington Wizards: Unloading John Wall for Russell Westbrook was a minor miracle of a move that prevents the Wizards from being stuck with a god awful megadeal weighing them down for the next 5 years. That being said, I'm not confident the trio of Westbrook, Bradley Beal and Davis Bertans is gifted enough for them to break into the playoff picture in a notably improved Eastern Conference.
10.Orlando Magic: Playing in a pretty shallow Eastern Conference that has allowed the mediocre Magic to sneak into the playoffs for 2 straight seasons and with them staying roughly the same talent-wise (every key member from the 2019-20 team except for free agent departures D.J. Augustin and Wes Iwandu and the injured Jonathan Isaac are returning this year) while other bubble teams (Hawks, Wizards, Nets) got better, those odds of making it 3 in a row aren't overly strong.
11.Charlotte Hornets: Rookie LaMelo Ball and Gordon Hayward (if healthy) should provide a spark to their stagnant offense and Devonte' Graham is an unsung young player with a potentially lethal shooting stroke that's worth keeping an eye on, but that's where the excitement around this Hornets team ends. Their collection of big men (Cody Zeller, Bismack Biyombo, Jalen McDaniels, rookies Vernon Carey Jr. and Nicholas Richards) is just plain sad, Miles Bridges and Malik Monk have done nothing to justify their lottery pick status thus far and Terry Rozier continues to be a comically inefficient shooter that only passes when his elbows are sore after taking 36 contested jumpers in a half.
12.Chicago Bulls: The arrival of a legit coach in Billy Donovan to replace hardo doofus Jim Boylen should lead to immediate improvement on the floor. The problem is this roster still has serious defensive deficiencies that will likely continue to sink their solid albeit raw arsenal of gifted young scorers led by Zach Lavine, Lauri Markkanen and Wendell Carter.
13.Detroit Pistons: Why an emerging premier role player in Jerami Grant chose to sign with this sinking ship that's propped up by a pair of stars whose best days are unquestionably behind them (the oft-injured Blake Griffin and Derrick Rose-who is almost guaranteed to be traded to a contender at the deadline) is truly staggering. Their roster is mostly compromised of mediocre veteran bench fodder (Wayne Ellington, Mason Plumlee, Delon Wright, Jahlil Okafor, Rodney McGruder) Dwane Casey is almost certainly going to be fired by the end of the season and with Christian Wood and Luke Dennard both exiting in the offseason, there's zero young talent with real upside to speak of. If Rose does end up getting dealt and Griffin misses significant time again, a dead last finish will be in play.
14.Cleveland Cavaliers: A full year with J.B. Bickerstaff running the show and Andre Drummond playing next to Kevin Love in the frontcourt should definitely help the Cavs be more competitive than they were last season, but the reality is that their rebuild is still in its infancy and their young guys (Collin Sexton, Darius Garland, Cedi Osman) aren't nearly good enough to help compete at a high level right now.
15.New York Knicks: James Dolan's toxic presence scaring any big ticket free agents out of signing with the Knicks remains the funniest story in the league. They had a zillion dollars in cap space for a 2nd straight season in a league where the size of the market directly correlates with the ability to land free agents and the best they could do was sign Austin Rivers, Alec Burks, Nerlens Noel and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist to short-team deals. Pair that inability to land star talent with continued bad luck in the draft lottery and you have the saddest team in the NBA yet again.
Western Conference:
1.Los Angeles Lakers: The defending champions spent the abbreviated offseason swapping out their expendable role players (Rajon Rondo, Danny Green, Dwight Howard, Javale McGee, Avery Bradley) for mostly younger, more offensively-gifted ones (Montrezl Harrell, Dennis Schroder, Marc Gasol, Wesley Matthews) to go alongside the untouchable two headed monster of LeBron and AD. In other words, hoisting another Larry O'Brien Trophy in 2020-21 seems like a very strong possibility.
2.Denver Nuggets: One of the biggest takeaways from the NBA Bubble was that the mental toughness, court awareness and overall games of Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray have improved sigifinacntly in the past year. Pair those emerging superstars with a deep bench (Paul Milsap, Monte Morris, JaMychal Green, Bol Bol) an ascending young offensive talent in Michael Porter Jr. and a collective grit that the Clippers just don't have and you have the biggest challenger to the Lakers in the West.
3.Los Angeles Clippers: Having a hands-off, superstar-friendly presence in Ty Lue replace a fiery tactician in Doc Rivers at head coach and bringing in a couple more unselfish, battle-tested veterans (Serge Ibaka, Nicolas Batum) to come off the bench should help the Clippers solve at least some of their locker room issues, but their stunning playoff collapse in the Bubble and Paul George's continued no-shows in big games makes them hard to take seriously as a top-tier contender.
4.Portland Trail Blazers: The impact the return of a healthy Jusuf Nurkic and addition of a two-way wing in Robert Covington will have on this team can not be underestimated. Defensive hiccups, lack of floor spacing and secondary scoring alongside their dynamic backcourt (Damian Lillard, C.J. McCoullum) were the biggest problems Portland had during their middling start to the 2019-20 and with those problems presumably nullified by these two players, they should more closely resemble the 2018-19 team that made it all the way to the Western Conference Finals.
5.Dallas Mavericks: Luka Doncic is a certified killer that's on the cusp of being a top 10 player in the NBA and Kristaps Porzingis is coming off his best season as a pro, but Porzingis' continued durability issues and the ho-hum supporting cast (Josh Richardson, Maxi Kleber, Dorian Finney-Smith, Tim Hardaway Jr., Jalen Brunson, Dwight Powell, Wes Iwandu, Willie Cauley-Stein, Trey Burke) that surrounds their two stars makes the Mavs a middle of the pack team for now.
6.Utah Jazz: New season, same old Jazz. They're well-coached, play their asses off and are arguably the most defensively stout team in the league, but ultimately lack the offensive talent outside of Donovan Mitchell and Bojan Bogdanovic to make a deep playoff run.
7.Phoenix Suns: Riding high off their undefeated Bubble run, the Suns look to be in a pretty good spot to snap their 11-year playoff drought. Their young corps (Devin Booker, Deandre Ayton, Mikal Bridges) seems to be starting to really come together, free agent pickup Jae Crowder is a solid veteran wing who should really beef up their perimeter defense and big ticket trade acquisition Chris Paul still has enough gas in the tank to make a big impact on the floor for at least another couple years while also providing the veteran leadership this young bunch needs to take their next step forward.
8.Memphis Grizzlies: A late surge from the Blazers doomed what was shaping up to be a surprise playoff bid for an upstart Grizzlies team that's in the middle of a rebuild. With their young corps anchored by Jaren Jackson, Brandon Clarke, Dillon Brooks and reigning Rookie of the Year Ja Morant getting another year to adjust to the physical and mental nuances of the NBA, they should have better luck sneaking into the bottom of the playoff bracket this time around.
9.Golden State Warriors: As great as Steph Curry has looked in the preseason, it's going to be very difficult for this team to make into the playoffs without Klay Thompson. Curry's de facto top running mates (Andrew Wiggins, Kelly Oubre) lacks the consistent scoring pop/defensive versatility that Thompson provides this team and unless #2 overall pick James Wiseman pops right away, their frontcourt is going to get steamrolled by the West's deep collection of elite big men.
10.San Antonio Spurs: It's hard to believe that a Gregg Poppovich-coached team would miss the playoffs in back-to-back seasons, but the talent disparity between the Spurs (a DeMar DeRozan/LaMarcus Alridge/Dejounte Murray/Derrick White/Jakob Poltl/Rudy Gay/Patty Mills/Trey Lyles rotation isn't going to scare too many people right now) and the other top teams in the West makes it seem like a strong possibility-particularly if DeRozan-who is in the last year of his contract-gets moved at the deadline.
11.Houston Rockets: James Harden or no James Harden, the Rockets days as an elite contender are over with for now. Replacing Russell Westbrook with John Wall-a speed-based player who hasn't been played in 2 years after suffering Achilles' and foot injuries-is a potentially huge downgrade, Mike D'Antoni's departure could have a huge hit on their offense and their top role players (P.J. Tucker, Gerald Green, Eric Gordon) are on the cusp of aging out of relevancy.
12.New Orleans Pelicans: A coaching change was needed in New Orleans after Alvin Gentry allowed this team walk into the Bubble expecting to coast into the play-in tournament for the final playoff spot based on how well they were playing before the COVID-shutdown in March and quit as soon as it became clear that wasn't going to be the case. Notorious hard-ass Stan Van Gundy will definitely bring discipline to this young locker room and despite his relative lack of success during his last HC stint with the Pistons, having a pair of young stars in Brandon Ingram and Zion Williamson already at his disposal makes his odds of returning to the success level he had during his time with the Magic and Heat feels a lot more likely than a repeat of the middling results he posted in Detroit. While the potential for greater than expected leaps from Ingram/Williamson paired with their respectable depth across the court (Eric Bledsoe, Steven Adams, Lonzo Ball, Josh Hart, J.J. Redick, Nicolo Melli, Jaxson Hayes) makes a playoff bid not of question this year, it seems more likely that they're still a year or two away from hitting that level.
13.Minnesota Timberwolves: Getting an extended look at the Karl-Anthony Towns/D'Angelo Russell experiment, what mysterious #1 overall pick Anthony Edwards can bring to the table at the professional level and Ricky Rubio returning to town after being traded to the Jazz for peanuts 4 years ago are the clear headlines for an otherwise innocuous team that's seemingly destined for another high lottery pick this season.
14.Sacramento Kings: As other struggling teams in the West either ascend on the backs of their young stars (Mavericks, Nuggets), have glimmers of hope for the future (Pelicans, Suns, Grizzlies) or completely bottom out with the hopes of selecting the player that will take them to the next level (Wolves, Thunder), the Kings remain stuck in neutral. Their young guys (De'Aaron Fox, Buddy Hield, Marvin Bagley Jr.) haven't developed as expected on either ends of the floor, the vets they've brought in as complementary pieces (Harrison Barnes, Richaun Holmes, Nemanja Bjelica) haven't done much to move the needle and above all, they're not overly great on either end of the floor. Unless the recipe of letting spark scorer Bogan Boganodvic walk in restricted free agency and signing Hassan Whiteside-who is always unpredictable from an effort/production standpoint and Glenn Robinson III-an end-of-bench shooter who is on his fifth team since the start of the 17-18 season-serves as some kind of stunning cure for their afflictions, a return to their unwelcome de facto "bad enough to not make the playoffs, but not bad enough to win the draft lottery" form appears to be in the cards.
15.Oklahoma City Thunder: The tank is officially on in OKC. They shipped out just about every veteran that contributed to their surprisingly productive 2019-20 campaign (Chris Paul, Danilo Gallinari, Steven Adams, Dennis Schroder, Terrence Ferguson) in exchange for more ammo to add to their already comically loaded draft pick arsenal they amassed from last season's trades of Russell Westbrook and Paul George, and a few vets (Al Horford, George Hill, Trevor Ariza) to mentor the few young guys they already have that they seem to believe in (Shai Gilegious-Alexander, Darius Bazley, Bubble Breakout Lu Dort) as well as cut ties with longtime coach Billy Donovan to promote 35-year year old assistant HC Mark Daigneault-who had a good amount of success coaching their G-League affiliate the Oklahoma City Blue from 2014-19. Despite this clear commitment to the future over the present, expect this group to play hard and be a thorn in the side of less hungry top-tier teams on the regular.
Playoff Predictions:
Eastern Conference
1st Round:
Bucks over Hawks
Heat over Pacers
Celtics over 76ers
Nets over Raptors
Conference Semifinals:
Bucks over Nets
Heat over Celtics
Conference Finals:
Bucks over Heat
Western Conference
1st Round:
Lakers over Grizzlies
Nuggets over Suns
Clippers over Jazz
Trail Blazers over Mavericks
Conference Semifinals:
Lakers over Trail Blazers
Nuggets over Clippers
Conference Finals:
Lakers over Nuggets
NBA Finals:
Lakers over Bucks
Year-End Awards:
MVP: Luka Doncic (Mavericks)
Defensive Player of the Year: Anthony Davis (Lakers)
Sixth Man of the Year: Tyler Herro (Heat)
Rookie of the Year: LaMelo Ball (Hornets)
Most Improved Player: Michael Porter Jr. (Nuggets)
Coach of the Year: Ty Lue (Clippers)
