Buffalo Bills
2020 Record: 13-3 (1st in AFC East)
Head Coach: Sean McDermott (5th season)
Notable Additions: WR Emmanuel Sanders, QB Mitch Trubisky, T Bobby Hart
Notable Departures: WR John Brown, CB Josh Norman, G Brian Winters
Biggest Reason for Excitement: The Vast Majority of Last Year's Team is Back
Continuity is a defining characteristic of most contending teams and the Bills are fortunate enough to have that heading into 2021. Just about every player that hit the open market this offseason re-upped with the team (Matt Milano, Daryl Williams, Levi Wallace) and none of the notable departures (John Brown, Josh Norman, Brian Winters, Matt Barkley, Andre Roberts) were significant contributors to their AFC Championship run a year ago. Even the coaching staff including OC Brian Daboll-who was among the hottest head coach candidates this offseason-will be back at full strength. Bringing the band back together-especially with a roster that largely consists of young players that are either still ascending (Josh Allen, Dion Dawkins, Tre'Davious White) or just now hitting their prime (Stefon Diggs, Jordan Poyer, Daryl Williams)-is a vitally important opening step in this team's quest to achieve their championship dreams.
Biggest Question Mark: Josh Allen's Ability to Repeat and/or Build Upon What He Did Last Season
The Aaron Rodgers F U Tour and Tom Brady continuing his winning ways in 2020 kind of took away from just how impressive Josh Allen's year 3 jump was. Driven by an incredible improvement in his short-to-intermediate accuracy, sharper decisionmaking and heightened command over the offense, Allen blew away his previous career highs (4,544 YDS, 37 TDS, 69.2 CMP% on 572 passing attempts, up from 3,089, 20, 58.8% on 461 attempts in 2019) and that stellar play allowed this Bills team to have their best season since the peak of the Jim Kelly/Andre Reed/Bruce Smith era in the early-to-mid 90's.
While expecting him to match the MVP-caliber numbers he posted in 2020 on a year-to-year basis isn't fair or realistic, what last season did do was set a precedent for Allen's play moving forward and it's completely reasonable to question his ability to live up to it. There were still plenty of moments amidst all the glory last season where he was reverting back to his old chuck and duck, zero touch on the ball ways (see: their lopsided loss against the Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game). For as much talent as this roster has on both sides of the ball, Allen is the piece that lifts them from solid to great and any regression back to the less efficient, confident version of him that we saw during his 1st 2 NFL seasons will send this team off their title track.
Key to Reaching Their Ceiling: Figuring Out the Corner Hierarchy Behind Tre'Davious White
Having a true shutdown corner in Tre'Davious White that's still only 26 years old gives the Bills an advantage over the at least 3/4 of the league that either don't have one or have a guy that's about to age out of being in that top class. While having a top corner is a really nice luxury that will help prevent them from being one of the worst passing defenses in the league, the fast and loose approach they've applied to the rest of their corner group is a bit worrisome.
Last season saw the Bills effectively deploying a platoon approach at the other corner spots alongside White with Wallace, Josh Norman, Taron Jackson and Dane Jackson all logging time in the starting lineup. To be fair, some of that shuffling was due to injuries and Norman contracting COVID in November, but there was also a lot of mixing and matching when they were at full strength that drew mixed results throughout the season (which tracks considering the Bills finished 13th against the pass in 2020).
With Norman gone and the benefit of having a full offseason program to get a feel for his personnel, DC Leslie Frazier is going to have to figure out who is going to slot in where. Wallace is a serviceable vet who is capable of handling most assignments he's tasked with, Taron Jackson-best known for making the game-clinching INT on Lamar Jackson in the Wild Card Round last year-started to get very comfortable in the slot at the end of the year, Dane Jackson was a very pleasant surprise in coverage when he was elevated from the practice squad for 5 games last year (including 2 starts) and rookie Rachad Wildgoose is an intriguing developmental prospect that should fit right in with the physical, instinctive corners this group is full of. Wallace and Taron Jackson as a 2nd outside/slot duo seems like the most likely combo based on their play last year and if they (particularly Jackson) can flourish with more stable assignments, there's no reason to think this corner group can't be one of the league's best.
Bottom Line:
Boasting the deepest roster and clear best QB situation in the AFC East, it's the Bills division to lose.
Miami Dolphins
2020 Record: 10-6 (2nd in AFC East)
Head Coach: Brian Flores (3rd season)
Notable Additions: WR Will Fuller, ILB Benardrick McKinney, CB/S Jason McCourty
Notable Departures: QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, OLB Kyle Van Noy, OLB Shaq Lawson
Biggest Reason for Excitement: Shiny, New Offensive Toys
The Dolphins exceeded any reasonable expectation people had for them last year by rattling off a 10-6 record and falling just shy off the final AFC Wild Card spot. Even with all the joy their overperformance provided their fanbase with, their offense wasn't exactly high on excitement. Sure, Ryan Fitzpatrick brought his usual unpredictable electricity to the field at times and Preston Williams broke off some big plays before he went down with a foot injury in November, but their offense mostly consisted of running the ball with a committee headed up by Myles Gaskin and dumping off short passes to whoever was open.
So how do you add some sex appeal to an offense that doesn't really have a lot in place? Simple: Bring in a couple of explosive play specialists in Will Fuller and Jaylen Waddle. Fuller and the rookie Waddle-who the Dolphins surprisingly chose over his Alabama teammate DeVonta Smith with the 6th overall pick-are the type of downfield burners that opponents have nightmares about. No amount of technique and discipline as a corner can stop high-end downfield and slotting in two guys with these rare gifts next to each other gives the Dolphins a real opportunity to become a dynamic vertical offense. There may be concerns about drops, soft tissue injuries, Tua Tagovailoa's ability to get them the ball downfield and in the case of Fuller, if his breakout 2020 campaign was directly tied to his PED use, but now isn't the time to disrupt 'Fins fans from daydreaming about all of the 80 YD housecalls their new WR's could make this season with rational questions about the feasibility of these highlight reel plays becoming reality.
Biggest Question Mark: Xavien Howard's Playing Status
Word trickled out a few weeks that 2x All-Pro and reigning league INT leader Xavien Howard was upset with his contract and was considering holding out for a new deal or trade. As the start of camp looms, no real clarity from either Howard or the Dolphins about this situation has been provided (Brian Flores spoke to the media earlier today, but said nothing of real consequence about this).
This is concerning for a couple of reasons. 1: The Dolphins REALLY value Howard. When they were cutting ties with everybody and their brother including the likes of Laremy Tunsil and Minkah Fitzpatrick at the start of the 2019 season, they let Howard know that they wanted him to be at the forefront of their overhauled roster by giving him a big money extension (5 years/$75.2 mil/$39.2 mil guaranteed) at a time where they actively selling everybody with value to acquire picks to fund their rebuilding efforts. 2.: Howard is coming off the best season of his career. He outshined big money free agent pickup Byron Jones every step of the way and proved he's talented enough to anchor an entire secondary by posting truly absurd numbers (10 INT's, 20 passes defensed, 52.2 CMP% allowed on 90 targets).
As much as Flores has improved every facet of this defense since he arrived with his diligent coaching, they really can't afford to piss off a great corner that's in his prime. Just look at the other options they have to roll out next to Jones (Justin Coleman- who has been abysmal in back-to-back seasons, Noah Igbinoghene-who spent his rookie season getting embarrassed by nearly everybody he lined up against and Jason McCourty-who is much better equipped to play safety this stage of his career) and try not to forcefully vomit.
Is it kind of petty that Howard is already bitching about his contract 1 season into his big extension? Absolutely, but Jalen Ramsey and Marlon Humphrey reset the market with their new deals and it's hard to argue that Howard isn't at the very least just as good as them. The Dolphins have an opportunity to be in contention for the title of best corner duo for the next 3-4 years and it would be a real shame if a contract spat gone wrong put a stop to that.
Key to Reaching Their Ceiling: Tua Tagovailoa's Play in Year 2
Tua Tagovailoa took far more undeserved shit than any other rookie in the league last year. That's not to say that any of the criticisms directed at him aren't valid: It certainly wasn't great to see him get (rightfully) benched for Ryan Fitzpatrick on several occasions during the year and he was definitely a little too content to settle for quick dump offs instead of testing the waters downfield-particularly against stiff competition. Despite these legit issues, it often felt like people were dumping on him simply because he wasn't matching the abnormally high level of play that his peers Justin Herbert and Joe Burrow displayed in year 1. It's easy to forget that Tua not only had to deal with the hurdles of a 2020 offseason where players weren't even allowed to congregate in person until the start of training camp, he had the added pressure of rehabbing from a major hip injury at the same time-which cut into his reps at training camp and subsequently impeded his ability to develop a rapport with his wideouts. Plus at the end of the day even with all those obstacles in place, he was generally an efficient game manager (64.1 CMP%, 11 TD, 5 INT) and led the team to a 6-3 record in his starts, which is a completely fine starting point for a rookie QB.
Heading into year 2, there's every indication that Tua is going to improve. Not only is Tua fully healthy, he's got the aforementioned explosive additions to put alongside a potential burgeoning star tight end in Mike Gesicki-who was the only pass-catcher who was able to get on the same page with him pretty much right away last season, actually gets a chance to establish a rapport with his wideouts and has been freed of the burden of having Fitzpatrick constantly breathing down his neck (although new backup Jacoby Brissett is still good/experienced enough to threaten his job if he plays poorly). Hopefully his clean bill of health and those added reps with his wideouts will boost his confidence and we'll get a chance to see what the #5 overall pick in the 2020 draft is really made of in 2021.
Bottom Line:
A tougher schedule, Tua Tagovailoa's continued adjustment to the NFL and the absence of people underestimating them should be detrimental to this respectable, but still flawed Dolphins squad.
New England Patriots
2020 Record: 7-9 (3rd in AFC East)
Head Coach: Bill Belichick (22nd season)
Notable Additions: TE Hunter Henry, TE Jonnu Smith, OLB Matthew Judon
Notable Departures: G Joe Thuney, WR Julian Edelman (retired), CB/S Jason McCourty
Biggest Reason for Excitement: Bill Belichick Actually Spent Money in Free Agency!!!!
Everybody knows that Bill Belichick is a petty, grudge-holding prick and nothing could've possibly lit a fire under his ass more than Tom Brady winning a Super Bowl immediately after leaving the Patriots. Belichick knows god damn well that his legacy is tied to Brady's and if Brady continues to win while he wastes away in the hollow wasteland of mediocrity, his reputation in the annals of football history will be forever decimated.
This unfortunate series of events inspired Belichick to do the most un-Belichick thing in the world: break out Robert Kraft's checkbook and be super aggressive in free agency. We're not talking about giving a couple guys decent-sized deals or adding a bunch of little depth pieces either: He landed some of the biggest names on the market (Jonnu Smith, Hunter Henry, Matthew Judon, Nelson Agoholor) along with a nice mix of established veteran starters (Kyle Van Noy, Jalen Mills) and his classic boom-or-bust signings (Kendrick Bourne, Henry Anderson, Rakewon McMillan) that could really bolster their depth at important positions on the cheap. Clearly these moves alone won't be enough to turn the tide, but being able to identify problem spots on their roster and urgently address them with vets who could complement the promising young talent they've added over the last couple of seasons (Kyle Dugger, Josh Uche, Chase Winovich), made this a productive offseason for the Patriots.
Biggest Question Mark: Quarterback (Again)
The Cam Newton Comeback Experiment failed mightily last season as the 2015 league MVP struggled mightily with accuracy, reading defenses and even running the ball in non-short yardage situations. To the surprise of many, Newton inked another 1-year deal with the Pats at the start of free agency and is heading into training camp as the projected Week 1 starter. The team clearly felt inclined to run it back after his early season COVID diagnosis and lack of offseason reps with his teammates certainly contributed to his struggles in 20 and as poor as his play was, the strength of his leadership was definitely felt in the locker room.
So will Newton be able to improve this season? Probably. Adding a pair of tight ends in Smith and Henry who have the after-the-catch ability to excel in the short passing game to the fold and getting a full offseason to develop a feel for the offense should increase Newton's functionality within this system. However, the physical beatdowns he's endured dating back to at the very least his Auburn days that have left him with several chronic injuries (shoulder, knee, hip), tendency to hold onto the ball for too long and loss of a feel for the pass rush could prove to be just too much for him to overcome at this juncture of his career.
Now of course the alternative to Newton would be rookie Mac Jones. Jones' no frills, stand in the pocket and get the ball out quickly to the open target approach to the position makes him the perfect fit for Josh McDaniels' system, but his limited run as a starter at Alabama paired with the shakiness of the receiver group even with the new additions (Agholor has reportedly been awful with drops during OTA's and the inconsistent Bourne has only posted 1,769 YDS through 4 seasons in the pros) makes him an ideal candidate to sit on the bench for a year before he takes the field.
Regardless of who lines up under center, they're going to need get something out of the passing game this season if they want avoid a repeat of their soul crushing 2020 offensive performance (27th in total YDS, 30th in passing offense, 27th in scoring offense). No amount of running back substitutions or cute scheming can cover up an offense that literally can't move the ball through the air and having an offense that is so easy for any team with a competent run D to defend makes winning with any sort of consistency damn near impossible.
Key to Reaching Their Ceiling: Being Able to Win with Defense and the Running Game
The question marks surrounding every facet of their passing game are going to force Belichick and co. to win in a way that they're certainly familiar with: running the ball down people's throats and playing great defense. Now, the running game part of this equation seems like a fair bet to be solved. They were excellent running the ball last season (4th in the league with an impressive average of 146.6 YDS per game) despite their well-documented overall offensive ineptitude and should have a strong enough o-line/RB stable to continue to have a notable presence on the ground.
The defensive side of the ball is where doubt over their ability to execute this timeless equation start to creep in and there's a lot of reasons to be concerned about their ability to be great this season. Longtime Pats great Devin McCourty is starting to show his age, Dont'a Hightower is being tasked with the top inside linebacker spot despite the fact that he hasn't played a snap in 2 seasons and the team has no reliable replacement lined for up for Stephon Gilmore-who is entering his age 31 season and coming off a major quad injury-at top outside corner if he isn't ready to go week 1 (borderline start #2 corner J.C Jackson has struggled mightily whenever he's slid over to that spot).
On the other hand, there's also plenty of reasons to be optimistic about this group returning to the top 10 of scoring defenses They beefed up both their front 7 enough with the additions of Judon, Van Noy, Dalvin Godcheaux, and rookie Christian Barmore to conceivably improve their pass rush and their run D-which ranked a sneaky terrible 26th in the league last season, the aforementioned promising young talent-particularly Uche and Dugger-are in a great spot to really flourish in year 2 now they get the opportunity to complete a traditional full offseason program and their corner group should be really formidable if Gilmore bounces back from injury even remotely well. If this strategy works and Belichick gets the Patriots back to the playoffs with an old school black and blue style of play, you can bet that miserable bastard will break out the big, smug smile that he typically reserves for his offseason Nantucket Magazine photo shoots.
Bottom Line:
If their offense can even be just a little more efficient and effective in the passing game, the Patriots should be able to get back into the playoff mix.
New York Jets
2020 Record: 2-14 (4th in AFC East)
Head Coach: Robert Saleh (1st season)
Notable Additions: WR Corey Davis, DE Carl Lawson, T Morgan Moses
Notable Departures: QB Sam Darnold, OLB Jordan Jenkins, DE/DT Henry Anderson
Biggest Reason for Excitement: Adam Gase is Gone
2021 is almost certainly going to be another losing season for the Jets as they make the transition to a new coaching staff, roll out another rookie quarterback as their starter and continue to deploy some combination of Blessaun Austin, Bryce Hall and the other Lamar Jackson at corner. That being said, most Jets fans will gladly accept their latest rebuilding year since Adam Gase is no longer the head coach. Firing Gase was an inevitable conclusion to their miserable 2-14 2020 season that was riddled with questionable effort, snippy press conferences and internal dysfunction, but it still has to be really satisfying to see him out the door if you're a Jets fan. Even by the Jets porous standards, Gase was a world class bozo that managed to leave a team that wasn't exactly firing on all cylinders when Todd Bowles got fired in even worse shape than when he arrived. No matter what Robert Saleh ends up being as a head coach, there's very slim odds that he'll be the world class disaster in the locker room, at press conferences and on the sidelines that Gase was.
Biggest Question Mark: Robert Saleh
During the 49ers dominant 2019 campaign, Saleh was quickly anointed the next great head coaching candidate after turning a long-struggling defense into a formidable powerhouse. After he was passed over for all of the open gigs and returned to the 49ers for the 2020 season, Kyle Shanahan and his players became even more over-the-top in their praise of him. Despite suffering a huge drop in the scoring defense ranking (8th in 2019 to 17th in 2020), Saleh managed to do enough this time around to earn himself a shot at running his own squad.
So what makes Saleh such a mystery? For starters, successful defensive-minded head coaches are basically relics at this point. Mike Vrabel is literally the only newcomer to the head coaching ranks in recent years that's been able to establish himself as a success with an old school, hard-nosed pedigree and every other great defensive-minded guy (Bill Belichick, Pete Carroll, Mike Tomlin) has been with their respective clubs for over a decade.
Then there's the question about just how much of a defensive virtuoso he really is. Out of his 4 years overseeing the 49ers D, their 8th ranked finish in 2019 was the only time they finished in the top half of the league in scoring defense and that success could easily be chalked up to the level of healthy, high end talent they had that season. It doesn't exactly take a brilliant coaching mind to produce strong results with a group that features a healthy DeForest Buckner, Richard Sherman and Nick Bosa all playing at or near the peak of their abilities. This argument can be countered by pointing to the impressive development of Arik Armstead, Fred Warner and Jaquiski Tartt over the same period of time, which only makes Saleh's true ability as a tactician even harder to track.
Saleh's OC pick Mike LaFluer has a similar sense of mystery attached to him. He's been joined at the hip with Kyle Shanahan since he interned under him with the Browns back in 2014, which pretty much means he's done nothing of consequence during his time in the league. Although he was the "passing game coordinator" for the 49ers over the past 2 seasons, Shanahan is notorious for running the show himself on offense, which means LaFluer likely has little or no experience drawing up schemes or calling plays.
If LaFluer choses to simply mimic the Shanahan bootleg/power run/screen pass offense here, I'm not confident the Jets have the personnel in place on the offensive line or at running back to make that work. If he decides to do his own thing, then we'll have no idea how this system is really going to work until September.
Saleh was beloved by his players in San Francisco and definitely has the right fire to be a head coach, it just remains a huge question mark whether he or his cohorts can excel in an environment that doesn't already have top-tier talent in place.
Key to Reaching Their Ceiling: The Plethora of New Faces Stepping Up
Saleh and Zach Wilson weren't the only major new additions to the Jets organization. They were very active in free agency-signing several prominent veterans without really breaking the bank (Corey Davis, Carl Lawson, Morgan Moses, Sheldon Rankins, Vinny Curry, Tevin Coleman, Keelan Cole) and followed that up with a splashy draft that landed them multiple high-ceiling prospects (guard Alijah Vera-Tucker, wide receiver Elijah Moore, running back Michael Carter) after taking Wilson at #2 overall.
Considering that most of these guys play at positions that were of great weakness (running back, offensive line spots that aren't left tackle, edge rusher, outside receiver) last year, they'll get the chance to prove their value right away. The young FA signings in particular like deep threat Davis, people-moving edge Lawson and interior pass-rushing specialist Rankins have all flashed significant potential in the past when healthy and the sure-handed shifty slot/outside hybrid threat Moore, patient power runner Carter and versatile Vera-Tucker all profile as ideal fits for the modern NFL game. Clearly the Jets have whiffed a lot more then they've hit in both departments over the years and Wilson certainly has the profile (big arm, small school player with no experience against top-tier competition, only 1 productive season in college) to be the latest "looks good in shorts" QB bust, but at the very least, Joe Douglas rolled the dice on the right types of players without screwing up the cap situation in the long-term.
Bottom Line:
Even if everything goes great with Saleh, Wilson and their plethora of other new faces in year 1, the Jets combination of youth and major talent deficiencies at key positions makes a turnaround in 2021 damn near impossible.
Projected Standings
1.Buffalo Bills (12-5)
2.New England Patriots (10-7)
3.Miami Dolphins (8-9)
4.New York Jets (4-13)
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