Way Too Early Oscar Predictions

This time of year is what movie fanatics like myself live for. The biggest buzz-generating film festivals (Telluride, Venice, Toronto) have passed and the frontrunners for the year-end awards have started to solidify. In the spirit of this magical season, I thought it would be fun to use the word-of-mouth flood out of the major film festivals and general industry buzz to put together some early guesses for how the Oscars will shake out in February. It should be noted that a number of possible contenders (Silence, Fences, Hidden Figures, Live by Night, The Founder, Miss Sloane, Patriots Day, Rules Don't Apply, Gold) have yet to be publicly screened, so the makeup of this field could be significantly altered by the time December rolls around. Without further ado, here are my way too early predictions for the 89th Academy Awards.


Best Picture:
Arrival
Fences
Jackie
La La Land
Loving
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight 
Silence
And the Winner Is.....: La La Land
La La Land has been the darling of every festival its screened at and that level of universal acclaim paired with the type of Old Hollywood backdrop that the Academy consistently fawns over makes Damien Chazelle's original musical the overwhelming favorite to win Best Picture this year.  

Best Actor:
Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
Andrew Garfield, Silence
Ryan Gosling, La La Land
Tom Hanks, Sully
Denzel Washington, Fences

And the Winner Is...: Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
2016's Best Actor field is uncharacteristically thin, which makes this an ideal year to award a hardened veteran actor like Affleck that has been largely (and in my eyes, criminally) underappreciated for the duration of his career for a performance that is being hailed as his best-to date. 

Best Actress:
Amy Adams, Arrival
Annette Bening, 20th Century Women

Ruth Negga, Loving
Natalie Portman, Jackie
Emma Stone, La La Land 

And the Winner is: Emma Stone, La La Land
On the contrary, the Best Actress field is the deepest its been since at least 2010. I can honestly say that all five of these women have a shot at taking home Oscar gold, but I'm going to give Stone the slight edge due to the momentum she's picked up after her upset Best Actress win at the Venice Film Festival in September.

Best Supporting Actor:
Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea
Liam Nesson, Silence
Peter Saarsgard, Jackie
Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals
And the Winner is: Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
If I were to place a bet on one award winner right now, it would be this one. Moonlight has positioned itself as one of this year's strongest awards contenders and no one else in this category has come anywhere close to matching the praise that Ali has received for his performance.

Best Supporting Actress:
Viola Davis, Fences
Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women
Naomie Harris, Moonlight
Nicole Kidman, Lion
Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea 
And the Winner Is: Naomie Harris, Moonlight
It wouldn't shock me at all if Davis or Williams ended up winning, but I believe this year's Oscars are going to be about awarding lesser-known actors and as a Britain-bred character actress that hasn't gained much traction in American cinema, Harris fits that bill to a T.  

Best Director:
Damien Chazelle, La La Land
Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea 
Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
Martin Scorsese, Silence
Denis Villenevue, Arrival 
And the Winner Is: Damien Chazelle, La La Land
Yet another pretty open field with a nice blend of established powerhouse filmmakers and promising up-and-comers, but Chazelle has the edge right now. Judging from the small amount of footage that's currently floating around the internet, you can tell that Chazelle has given La La Land a distinct tone and visual style that should really resonate with voters.  

Best Animated Feature:
Finding Dory
Kubo & the Two Strings 
Miss Hokusai
Moana
Zootopia
And the Winner is: Zootopia 
Zootopia has all of the components needed to win (Disney-backing, excellent reviews, thought-provoking messages that are bound to go over your 6-year old's head) this award and unless Moana goes down as an instant classic, I can't see a scenario where this doesn't win.