Wednesday, September 6, 2017

2017 NFL Preview: NFC West

Arizona Cardinals
2016 Record: 7-8-1 (2nd in NFC West)
Head Coach: Bruce Arians (5th season)
Notable Additions: S Antonie Bethea, K Phil Dawson, ILB Karlos Dansby
Notable Departures: DT/DE Calias Campbell, S Tony Jefferson, G Evan Mathis (retired)
-Burgeoning star running back David Johnson avoided disaster last season when the ugly-looking knee injury he suffered in Week 17 against the Rams turned out to only be an MCL sprain. By avoiding a ligament tear in his knee, Johnson remains on track to potentially unseat Le'Veon Bell as the league's most deadly dual-threat running back in 2017. Johnson was borderline unstoppable during his 1st full season as Arizona's feature back (2,118 total YDS, 20 TD's on 373 touches) and with the lack of reliable wide receivers behind ageless wonder Larry Fitzgerald, Bruce Arians appears primed to feed him the ball at an even higher clip this season. While the suspect talent on the Cardinals offensive line is going to make it that much more difficult to achieve, Johnson has the physical tools and guaranteed heavy volume of touches to have a legitimate shot at breaking former teammate Chris Johnson's single-season total yards from scrimmage record (2,509).

-Carson Palmer was reportedly very close to retiring this offseason and with the shaky collection of characters that the Cardinals are tasking with protecting him, he's probably going to wish he did. Palmer got absolutely eviscerated last season (40 sacks, tied for 25th most in the league) and with 4 of 5 starters from that ragtag group (D.J. Humphries, A.Q. Shipley, Mike Iupati, Jared Veldheer) returning in 2017, the odds of him getting constantly lit the fuck up remain very high. While he did manage to stay healthy for the most part last season (he missed 1 game with a concussion), putting a nearly 38-year old quarterback with a checkered injury history behind an unstable offensive line is a disaster waiting to happen. I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if Drew Stanton was under center by the midway point of the season.

-While there's no denying that the Cardinals still have some excellent players on defense (Patrick Peterson, Chandler Jones, Tyrann Mathieau, Markus Golden), the losses they suffered this offseason were monumental. Calias Campbell is one of the league's most well-rounded, versatile defensive lineman, Tony Jefferson is an elite run-stuffing safety that is still a year or so removed from entering his prime and cornerback Marcus Cooper was the team-leader in interceptions a year ago (4). What makes these losses even more disconcerting is who the team has lined up to replace this trio of veteran starters. Defensive tackle/defensive end Robert Nkemdiche was invisible during his rookie season in 2016, safety Antonie Bethea is a merely competent player that just turned 33 and while Cooper was below average on the whole, special teams maven Justin Bethel is a significant downgrade at the corner position. The strength of this defense played a large role in helping this achieve a.500 record a season ago, but they might end up being their undoing this year.

Bottom Line:
While they have their faire share of elite players, the Cardinals don't appear to be deep or talented enough on either side of the ball to escape the bowels of mediocrity in 2017. 

Los Angeles Rams
2016 Record: 4-12 (3rd in NFC West)
Head Coach: Sean McVay (1st season)
Notable Additions: WR Sammy Watkins, T Andrew Whitworth, OLB Connor Barwin
Notable Departures: DE William Hayes, WR Kenny Britt, CB E.J. Gaines

-Jared Goff's struggles as a rookie are well-documented. The top overall pick in the 2016 NFL Draft lost all 7 games he appeared in last season and looked wildly uncomfortable running a pro-style offense. While it's reasonable to not have a lot of long-term optimism towards a quarterback that only completed 54.6%  of his passes and threw a paltry 5 TD's during his rookie season, new head coach Sean McVay could very well end up being the savior Goff needs to avoid being the next high-profile bust. McVay did an excellent job in aiding the development of Kirk Cousins during his 3 seasons as the Redskins offensive coordinator following his rough first 2 seasons in the league under the tutelage of Kyle Shanahan (although Cousins never struggled to the extent that Goff did last season). Getting Goff comfortable with the speed and complexity of a professional offense is going to be a very difficult task for the 31-year old to pull off in his inaugural season as an NFL head coach, but given the small sample size of the preseason, the young QB appears to be responding well to the Boy Wonder's system.

-Aaron Donald's decision to holdout for a new deal is the rare situation in the NFL that can be dubbed a lose-lose. It puts the front office in a situation where they either have to play hardball and risk upsetting one of their most valuable assets or give up their negotiating leverage when they're trying to work out new deals with other players while Donald looks selfish for voluntarily sitting out games when his presence is essential to the team's (limited) success. I expect this stalemate to conclude with a massive extension within the next 2-3 weeks because this weak Rams squad can't afford to have their best player spend a large portion of the season sitting on his couch or piss him off to the point where he walks when his contract expires at the end of next season.

-A gift arrived from the heavens about a month ago when the Rams were able to acquire WR Sammy Watkins in the Bills"take our assets in exchange for non 1st-round draft picks and mediocre veterans " tank-a-palooza giveaway. While Watkins' durability is a well-known concern around the league, there's no denying that he's an electric playmaker when he's on the field and gives the Rams the potential legit #1 receiver they've lacked since the days of "The Greatest Show on Turf". Adding a dynamic downfield threat to this young offense could potentially give Goff the go-to-guy he needs to progress as a QB.

-Running back Todd Gurley was the king of the football world in 2015. He posted an impressive 1,106 YDS and 10 TD's in just 12 starts and went onto win Offensive Rookie of the Year by a wide margin. The buzz that swirled around him like an enraged swarm of bees fizzled out after an underwhelming 2016 campaign where he only scored 6 TD's and averaged a god awful 3.2 yards per carry. 2017 should provide some clarity on what caliber player Gurley truly is. On the plus side, the addition of top-tier left tackle Andrew Whitworth should free up some rushing lanes that simply weren't there a season ago. However, there were no other major changes to the o-line (new center John Sullivan is coming off a terrible season with the Redskins) and if Goff continues to falter, opposing defenses will just stack the hell out of the box and make it incredibly difficult for Gurley to get back to the line of scrimmage for a 2nd straight season. The Rams are already in a rough spot on the offensive side of the ball and if Gurley can't regularly rip off the powerful, highlight-worthy runs that made him a sensation as a rookie, they're more than likely going to be among the league's worst teams for the foreseeable future.

-While the Jeff Fisher-era was defined by consistent mediocrity, their defenses were generally very good throughout his tenure. That being said, their stock suddenly dropped off a cliff during the final year of his regime with the team finishing 23rd in scoring defense (down from 13th in 2015). Longtime defensive coordinator/depraved fuckhead Gregg Williams was also let go at the end of last season, so it's going to be up to Wade Phillips to pick up the pieces and return this once-feared defense to elite form. Phillips is fresh off a 2-year stint in Denver where he oversaw a top-5 scoring defense (4th in the league during both seasons) and transformed their pass-rush into one of the most feared in the league, so there's a reasonable amount of optimism surrounding the start of his tenure in LA. The only reason for concern is that the talent level isn't even a third as good as what he had with the Broncos. Donald is the only truly game-changing piece on this unit and their lackluster group of pass-rushers (Connor Barwin, Robert Quinn, Ethan Westbrooks, rookie Samson Ebukam) could stunt the effectiveness of Phillips' blitz-happy scheme. Phillips' track record is as good as any defensive coordinator currently working in the league, but the 70-year old is going to have to work some serious magic to ensure this group thrives this season.

Bottom Line:
Unless Sean McVay, Wade Phillips and the rest of the coaching staff can pull off a series of unfathomable miracles with this less-than-stellar roster, the Rams are going to be a bottom 5-8 team in the league this season.

San Francisco 49ers
2016 Record: 2-14 (4th in NFC West)
Head Coach: Kyle Shanahan (1st season)
Notable Additions: WR Pierre Garcon, QB Brian Hoyer, DT Earl Mitchell
Notable Departures: QB Colin Kaepernick, WR Torrey Smith, S Antonie Bethea
-Owner Jed York once again flexed his tyrannical muscles by firing his head coach for a 3rd straight season (RIP to Chip Kelly's NFL-head coaching career) and finally putting general manager Trent Baalke out of his misery after a tumultuous 6-year tenure with the team. In true York-era 49ers fashion, the team's latest rebuilding effort appears to be as promising as the upcoming reboot of the Saw franchise. Spearheading this new 49ers regime will be head coach/offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan, who is fresh off blowing a Super Bowl that shouldn't have been possible to lose with his idiotic playcalling, and general manager John Lynch, who prior to this gig was filling the obligatory role of "former player providing terrible color commentary" on Fox's second-tier game broadcasts every Sunday. A head coach that has created problems just about everywhere he's been during his 8 seasons as a high-ranking assistant in the league and a general manager with no previous experience in an NFL front office teaming up in a place that's been overrun by internal dysfunction in recent years surely won't end poorly.

-The skepticism towards Lynch's fitness to be a GM only intensified once free agency hit. He spent his inaugural free-agency period handing out multi-year contracts to questionable veteran talent (stopgap quarterback extraordinaire Brian Hoyer, average defensive tackle Earl Mitchell, disgraced former Super Bowl MVP Malcolm Smith-who will miss the entire season with a torn pectoral muscle) and getting laughed at by his peers after he made ex-Raven Kyle Juzczyk the highest-paid fullback in NFL history (4 years/$21 mil/$9.5 mil guaranteed). Even with the abundance of cap space they had at their disposal, adding this many weak (or in the case of Juzczyk, scheme-limited) veteran players to a corps that had just about no talent to begin with is a head-scratching move that seems to indicate that Lynch has nothing that even resembles a plan for the future. While it's clearly too early to make a definitive ruling on Lynch's proficiency as a GM, this puzzling free agent haul definitely doesn't do anything to indicate that he's the next John Elway or Ozzie Newsome.

-As much as I've shat on a majority of Lynch's personnel moves thus far, he deserves credit for drafting defensive end Solomon Thomas at #3. The 49ers have been looking for a game-changing defensive players since all of their top-tier talents (Patrick Willis, Justin Smith, Chris Borland, Aldon Smith) retired or got released prior to the 2015 season and Thomas could very well be that guy. His dominant college tape and laundry list of impressive intangibles (speed, versatility, strength, athleticism, instincts) make him a prime candidate to be a top-notch line-of-scrimmage disruptor in the NFL. If Thomas can pick up enough playing time season and make the type of impact he made during his time at Stanford, he should be able to lock up Defensive Rookie of the Year.

-The only guy on the roster that should be looking forward to playing in a Brian Hoyer-led offense is Pierre Garcon. Garcon thrives as an underneath receiver and considering Hoyer would rather take a sack on every play than throw the ball more than 7 yards downfield, he's going to get peppered with targets every time he's in the lineup. In other words, Garcon and Hoyer are a match made in conservative, limp-dick football heaven.

Bottom Line:
The 49ers are without question the strongest contenders to challenge the Jets for the title of worst team in the NFL this season.

Seattle Seahawks
2016 Record: 10-5-1 (1st in NFC West)
Head Coach: Pete Carroll (8th season)
Notable Additions: DE Sheldon Richardson, K Blair Walsh, RB Eddie Lacy
Notable Departures: K Steven Hauschka, T Garry Gilliam, WR Jermaine Kearse

-John Schneider's surprise acquisition of defensive end/tackle Sheldon Richardson from the Jets last week could end up being a game-changing move for both parties. The former Defensive Rookie of the Year/Pro Bowler went from entering his contract year in a position where he was pretty much doomed to fail to being thrust into one of the most ideal situations possible in a matter of a few hours. The Seahawks have a tendency of unlocking the talents of guys who are considered to be washed-up and putting him alongside beloved veteran leaders like Michael Bennett and Cliff Avril should have a positive effect on his notoriously erratic mental state. Not only does this change in scenery give Richardson the best chance of righting the ship after his largely underwhelming play in each of the last 2 seasons, but adding someone with his upside and versatility to the defensive line rotation makes this already loaded front 7 that much scarier. If Richardson can re-discover his gift for wreaking havoc at the line of scrimmage in the Pacific Northwest, he should emerge as a strong contender for Comeback Player of the Year.

-The pair of 50+ yard dingers he hit against his former team in the preseason was all I needed to be convinced that disgraced kicker Blair Walsh is going to bounce back with Seattle. The 27-year old was one of the best kickers in the league before the shanked 27-yard field goal heard 'round the world ruined his confidence and got him axed from the Vikings last November. With some time away from the game to clear his head and a prime opportunity to redeem himself with the team he faced on that fateful, miserable January day in Minneapolis, Walsh look like he's ready to return to the league's elite kicking ranks. Walsh thriving with the team that almost ruined his career would be Rudy-esque story that would inspire the hell out of all 12 aspiring kickers that are currently out in the world.

-The Seahawks long-term fatal flaw has been on the offensive line. A combination of John Schneider whiffing on draft picks and refusing to invest any substantial amount of money to make improvement in free agency has led to a group that perennially ranks among the worst in the league. This problem has managed to get even worse since they traded talented center Max Unger to the Saints prior to the start of the 2015 season and unless the new blood ends up breaking this vicious cycle of incompetence, 2017 is looking like its going to be another really rough year for their o-line. Once you get past underrated center Justin Britt, this group is pretty much hopeless. Right tackle Germain Ifedi is coming off a nightmarish rookie season where he was frequently overwhelmed in both the rushing and passing games, Rees Odhiambo was just thrust into the starting left tackle spot after George Fant went down with a torn ACL in the 3rd preseason game, prolific draft bust and new starting right guard Luke Joeckel couldn't retain employment with the Jaguars, and despite being arguably better than the rest of his linemates not named Britt, left guard Mark Glowinski is still well below average at his peak. Thank Christ Russell Wilson can run because otherwise this group would be allowing at least 60 sacks this year.

-For a 2nd straight year, the Seahawks backfield is relatively unsettled heading into the season. Thomas Rawls appears to be atop the committee for now, but if he looks anything like he did last season, that'll change very fast. Unfortunately for the Seahawks, the options behind Rawls are just as, if not more risky. Free-agent pickup Eddie Lacy went from presumed starter to potential 3rd-stringer after yet another underwhelming training camp/preseason while 2nd-year back C.J. Prosise has flashed serious potential as a receiver out of the backfield, but always seems to be dinged up (he's currently sidelined with a groin injury and missed 11 games last year with multiple separate ailments). A strong running game was an integral part of both the Seahawks recent Super Bowl appearances, but unless Rawls can run with the same ferocity he displayed as a rookie or Lacy can revert back to his early glory days with the Packers, they'll be a lock to finish near the bottom of the league in rushing yards for a 2nd straight season.

Bottom Line:
Even with their hairiest roster situation since 2011, the Seahawks should be able to cruise to another NFC West title in 2017.

 Projected Standings
1.Seattle Seahawks (10-6)
2.Arizona Cardinals (7-9)
3.Los Angeles Rams (5-11)
4.San Francisco 49ers (3-13)

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