Wednesday, September 5, 2018

2018 NFL Preview: NFC West

Arizona Cardinals
2017 Record: 8-8 (3rd in NFC West)
Head Coach: Steve Wilks (1st season)
Notable Additions: G Justin Pugh, QB Sam Bradford, CB Jamar Taylor
Notable Departures: S Tyrann Mathieau, QB Carson Palmer (retired), CB Tramon Williams
-Carson Palmer's arguably overdue retirement is giving the Cardinals their 1st shakeup at quarterback in 5 years. Rookie Josh Rosen, who pretty much fell into their laps at #10 overall, is the QB of the future, but their stopgap starter will be Sam "Fat Stacks" Bradford. While he might be the least durable signalcaller in the league right now, Bradford is a functional game manager that should be able to help this team transition from Bruce Arians' relentlessly aggressive attack to a more conservative, ball control-dependent system. In the very realistic situation that Bradford's knee, wrist, head or another appendage/orifice explodes, you'd have to think Rosen gets the nod over Mike Glennon,who proved during his brief tenure with the Bears why he should be only be used as a desperation starter, simply based on his upside and long-term status with the team. Regardless of how this QB situation shakes out, a downturn at the position after 5 season with Palmer running the show is more than likely in the cards.

-David Johnson's return to the fold after missing nearly all of 2017 with a wrist injury is the clear top story coming out of Glendale as the season approaches. Given the lack of another proven RB on the depth chart (rookie Chase Edmunds and 2nd-year player T.J Logan are the backups), emphasis new OC Mike McCoy tends to put on the running game and near total absence of other playmakers elsewhere on the offense, the 4th year back appears set to get a ton of touches in his contract year. However, I don't think this heavy workload is guaranteed to translate to a high level of production. The Cardinals poor offensive line might be even less trustworthy than usual with journeyman Andre Smith taking over for Jared Veldheer at right tackle and rookie Mason Cole stepping in for the injured A.Q. Shipley at center, and with the receiving corps next to the incomparable Larry Fitzgerald being incredibly sketchy (rookie Christian Kirk and deep threat J.J. Nelson are currently slated to start alongside Fitz), he should be facing stacked boxes on nearly every play. The sheer amount of volume (likely somewhere between 20 and 30 touches per game) should be enough to get him at least 1,200 YDS from scrimmage, but a finish anywhere in the vicinity of the 2,118 YDS he put up in 2016 seems damn near unreachable at the moment.

-The revolving door that tends to be the Cardinals secondary next to shutdown corner Patrick Peterson was quite active yet again this offseason. Last year's #2 and 3 corners (Tramon Williams, Justin Bethel) departed in free agency, safety Tyvon Branch wasn't re-signed after suffering another major injury (torn ACL) last November and in what was easily the most surprising move of their offseason, formerly coveted safety Tyrann Mathieau was released after refusing to take a pay cut following another season defined by erratic play. In the wake of these moves, the Cardinals will cycling in 3 new starters to put alongside Peterson and 34-year old safety Antonie Bethea,-who is coming off his best season since his glory days with the Colts. Budda Baker has been upgraded to a full-time starter after being interested into the lineup in relief of Branch for the final stretch of last season while new acquisitions Jamar Taylor and Bene Benwikierie will step into the corner spots. There's a lot of justified buzz surrounding Baker following his pretty impressive rookie season, but I feel like these slept-on corners deserve a similar level of attention. Taylor has quietly turned into a pretty respectable cover corner after a rough rookie year with the Dolphins back in 2013 and while he's been generally played pretty poorly over the last couple of years, a reunion with former position coach Steve Wilks could allow Benwikerie to get back to the promising form he showed during his early days with the Panthers. Despite dealing with another expansive collection of new faces, I once again expect the Cardinals secondary to be one of the bright spots on this team once again in 2018.

-Unlike the rest of the new head coaches, Wilks has to deal with the rough challenge of taking over for a beloved guy that retired instead of some inept jabroni that most people desperately wanted to get axed. Arians had a track record of maximizing the output of the talent he was given (he never lost more than 8 games during his 5 years as HC) and the relative consistency he achieved while he was with the Cardinals could lead to some unreasonable criticism of Wilks in his inaugural year on the sideline. On the plus side, Wilks is coming from a resilient Panthers organization that has done pretty well under Ron Rivera and the Cardinals braintrust (GM Steve Kiem, owner Michael Bidwell) seems to be levelheaded enough to not place unrealistic expectations on him out of the gate. Escaping the shadow of a revered, respect icon is a tough task in any field and hopefully Wilks will earn a legit chance to try and accomplish that.  

Bottom Line:
The Cardinals are firmly in rebuilding mode and despite a pretty solid-looking defense, I don't expect them to win a lot this season          

Los Angeles Rams 
2017 Record: 12-4 (1st in NFC West)
Head Coach: Sean McVay (2nd season)
Notable Additions: CB Marcus Peters, CB Aqib Talib, WR Brandin Cooks
Notable Departures: CB Trumaine Johnson, WR Sammy Watkins, ILB Alec Ogletree
-Stan Kroneke's checkbook was under siege this offseason. In addition to inking homegrowns stars Todd Gurley and Aaron Donald to massive extensions, the team went out and signed Ndamukong Suh and pulled off a trio of improbable trades to bring in even more big-name talent (Brandin Cooks, Marcus Peters, Aqib Talib). These head-turning additions to an already well-rounded team that won 12 games last season may have been enough to make the Rams toast of the NFL media this offseason (and perhaps even some lure some people into their ghost town of a stadium), but you can't help but draw comparisons between this team and the notorious "Dream Team" 2011 Eagles with all the talented yet highly combustible personalities on this roster. Fractured locker rooms have a way of screwing up the on-field product and we have no idea if 2nd-year head coach Sean McVay has what it takes to keep this ego-filled group untied.  Fortunately Suh, Peters and Talib aren't committed to the team long-term (Suh's deal is up at the end of the season while Peters and Talib both have 2 years left on their current contracts), so they could emerge from relatively unscathed if this perceived superteam doesn't perform up to par this season.

-It's going to be fascinating to see how Cooks is integrated into this offense. He certainly has the pedigree of a top wideout (3 straight 1,000+ YD, 7+ TD seasons) and his status as a vertical threat make him an ideal fit for McVay's offense,-especially with Sammy Watkins departing for the Chiefs in free agency. However, the target share might not be quite what Cooks is used to (he's averaged 120 TGTS per season since 2015) with Gurley, Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp already established as viable, proven threats in this offense and as crazy as it sounds, Jared Goff is easily the worst QB he's worked with after catching passes from a pair of guaranteed 1st ballot HOF'ers (Drew Brees, Tom Brady) during his first 4 years in the league. Cooks should ending up a solid contributor on his new team, but it's entirely possible that he finishes the season with below 1,000 YDS receiving for the 1st time since his rookie year with the Saints.  

-While trading Alec Ogletree was the right move considering his bad contract (4 years/$42.5 million/$21 mil guaranteed) and inconsistent play, the Rams inside linebacker situation looks pretty ugly in the interim. No amount of tutelage from their great DC Wade Phillips will be enough to sell me on the combo of converted safety/notable draft bust Mark Barron and the relatively inexperienced Cory Littleton (5 career starts spread out over 2 years) lining up as this group's field generals. Given the aforementioned ludicrous amount of talent the Rams have elsewhere on this defense, they should be able to make up for this deficiency at a key position pretty easily, but I still expect good passing offenses to feast when they throw the ball down the middle of the field.      

Bottom Line:
While I'm still not totally convinced that they have what it takes mentally to go on a long playoff run, the Rams seem to have enough smart, even-keeled individuals on their coaching staff to keep all these big personalities in check and win the NFC West for a 2nd straight year. 

San Francisco 49ers
2017 Record: 6-10 (4th in NFC West)
Head Coach: Kyle Shanahan (2nd season)
Notable Additions: CB Richard Sherman, RB Jerick McKinnon, C Weston Richburg 
Notable  Departures: RB Carlos Hyde, T Trent Brown, C Daniel Kilgore
-It took essentially no time at all for Jimmy Garoppolo to be anointed the next big thing at QB. He was viewed as a godsend for a 49ers franchise that looked DOA since their Super Bowl loss to the Ravens back in 2012 after going 5-0 as a starter following his late October trade from the Patriots. Entering his 1st full season as the face of a franchise with a new deal that is set to make him at least $90 mil over the next 5 seasons, he now has to prove that dominant season-ending run in 2017 wasn't just a fluky flash of gridiron magic. As poised and accurate (67.4 CMP%) as he was last December, his gunslinger mentality (he threw at least 1 INT in all but 1 of those 5 starts) could easily get him into trouble over the course of a full season. He also no longer has the luxury of sneaking up on opponents. I know how dumb this sounds, but hear me out. There have been a fair number of QB's in recent years that have flashed potential (Brock Osweiler, Robert Griffin III, Colin Kaepernick) when opponents had limited tape on them that ended up crumbling when defenses started to scheme against team and the harsh reality is the every aspect of Garoppolo's resume to-date as a starter is at least similar to those of these flash-in-the-pan wonders from earlier this decade. This 49ers squad doesn't have enough needle-moving talent on defense or any other skill position on offense to succeed without great QB play, so they better hope that the kid can build on those very encouraging early returns and become the transcendent talent he's been widely pegged to be for much of the last 10 months.    

-As overhyped as I thought he was heading into this season, the loss of Jerick McKinnon throws a serious wrench into the 49ers rushing attack. McKinnon was relatively productive whenever he got regular carries during his time with the Vikings and all signs pointed to him being the bellcow in Kyle Shanahan's running back-friendly system in 2018. Now, they're going to be forced to roll out a backfield committee that's currently slated to be headed by veteran Alfred Morris. Morris is an old-school powerback who faired relatively well as a change-of-pace option with the Cowboys over the past 2 seasons (790 YDS and 3 TD's on 184 carries), but he only signed with the team in mid-August and is going to be 30 in December. Considering Morris' age and uselessness in the passing game, Matt Brieda-who put together a decent rookie season (645 YDS from scrimmage and 3 TD's on 126 touches) in 2017- is a lock to be the 3rd-down back and could easily surpass as the leader of this timeshare if the vet starts to show signs of breaking down. The likelihood of John Lynch bringing in another veteran back to compete for playing time seems pretty good, but for now, it appears that this ragtag old man/young buck combo are going to be tasked with trying to bring a sense of balance to this offense.

-Recovering from a torn Achilles going into his age 30 season was enough for the Seahawks to move on from 4x All-Pro corner/Legion of Boom founder Richard Sherman after 7 dynamite seasons in the Pacific Northwest that included 2 Super Bowl appearances and a championship in 2013. Given the state of the 49ers, taking a risk on Sherman's ability to bounce back from a major injury makes a ton of sense. His veteran leadership will be more than welcome in a defensive meeting room that has pretty much completely lacked it since Patrick Willis and Justin Smith retired following the 2014 season and he was playing well enough prior to injury last year to believe that he could help improve this mediocre-to-below average secondary (they finished 22nd in pass defense in 2017) if he at least somewhat returned to form. At the very least, Sherman will teach the young corps (Reuben Foster, DeForest Buckner, Solomon Thomas, fellow corner Akhello Witherspoon) tasked with trying to turn this defense around how to handle the spotlight while maintaining a championship-caliber work ethic and provide the world with some more A+++ soundbites before he leaves town.
   
Bottom Line:
Even if Garoppolo plays his ass off, the 49ers still seem like they're too young and weak on defense to clinch a playoff spot this season.

Seattle Seahawks
2017 Record: 9-7 (2nd in NFC West)
Head Coach: Pete Carroll (9th season)
Notable Additions: WR Brandon Marshall, K Sebastian Janikowski, G D.J. Fluker 
Notable Departures: CB Richard Sherman, S Kam Chancellor (retired), TE Jimmy Graham
-All good things must come to an end is a well-worn cliché that is especially true in the NFL. In the case of the Seahawks, the 2018 offseason was pretty much a straight purge of the remaining members of their "Legion of Boom"-era defense. Richard Sherman and Jeremy Lane got cut, Michael Bennett was traded to the Eagles and horrific injuries suffered last season forced Kam Chancellor and Cliff Avril to retire. In fact, safety Earl Thomas and linebackers Bobby Wagner and K.J. Wright are the only members of that iconic, feared group currently slated to be Week 1 starters for the 'Hawks this year. To be fair, this revamped Seahawks D isn't currently in complete dire straits. Wagner and Wright are still among the best coverage linebackers in the game, Frank Clark has been a consistently productive player since he came into the league in 2015 that is more than capable of taking over Bennett's role as the top edge defender and all of their current, lesser-known starters in the secondary (Shaq Griffin, Justin Coleman, Bradley McDougald) alongside Thomas played well throughout last season. However, all of these subtractions has made a huge dent in the depth that played such a crucial role in the LOB-era's success and Ken Norton Jr. was a puzzling choice to replace Kris Richard as DC given his pretty poor performance while he was the running the Raiders defense over the past 3 seasons. Basically, this defense has enough talent in place to make a collapse seem unlikely, but they're going to need to bring in some more pieces--especially along the defensive line- before they make another run at the title of league's best.  

-If the preseason is any indication, it would appear that Tom Cable- not the personnel as most people (including myself) previously believed, was the reason this offensive line has been such a disaster over the past few seasons. Despite retaining 4 of the 5 starters they closed out their UGLY 2017 season with (Duane Brown, Ethan Pocic, Justin Britt, Germain Ifedi), the pass-protection actually looked respectable throughout the exhibition season! If Russell Wilson could consistently make big throws when called upon while he was running around like a coked-up Tasmanian Devil on almost every snap, lord knows what he could do with a clean pocket and/or more than 0.3 seconds to get the ball out.

-Speaking of Wilson and the passing game, the receiving corps behind his trusted #1 option Doug Baldwin looks pretty god damn scarce now that Jimmy Graham, Paul Richardson and Luke Willson are gone. The Seahawks haven't been exactly loaded with receiving talent at any point of Pete Carroll's 9-year run as head coach, but its been a little bit since shit was this unsettled. Current projected starter at outside receiver Jaron Brown hasn't posted more than 477 yards in a season, 34-year old Brandon Marshall looked completely DOA well before an ankle injury ended his 2017 season with the Giants, tight end Nick Vannett hasn't done much in his limited playing time (15 REC, 156 YDS, 1 TD) since he was drafted in 2016 and despite his established rapport with Wilson, Tyler Lockett is merely a splash play specialist who isn't a great route runner. Their passing attack should ultimately be fine as long as Baldwin stays healthy, but there's plenty of reasons to be concerned if the knee ailment that held him out of preseason action ends up slowing him down or sidelining him for an extended period of time.

-Rashaad Penny was considered a lock to be the starting running back after he was selected at the end of the 1st round in a move that stunned pretty much everybody in the football world on draft night. However, Penny (and apparently GM John Schneider) completely overlooked 2nd-year back Chris Carson. Carson flashed legit NFL-caliber, dual-threat starting running back (267 total YDS and a TD on 57 touches) potential before he went down with a broken ankle in the 2nd half of a Week 4 contest with the Colts and as evidenced by the depth chart, continue to impress the coaching staff upon his return to the field by reportedly blowing the doors off the rookie,who showed up to camp 15 pounds heavier than he was at the Combine back in March, throughout OTA's. Don't be surprised if this trend continues and Carson plays well enough to hold onto the starting the job throughout 2018.  
   
Bottom Line:
I feel like the Seahawks struggles are being a bit overblown and it wouldn't stun me if Russell Wilson did enough under center to get them into the playoff mix.

Projected Standings:

1.Los Angeles Rams (11-5)
2.Seattle Seahawks (8-8)
3.San Francisco 49ers (7-9)
4.Arizona Cardinals (5-11)

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