91st Annual Academy Award Predictions

With no host and the nixing of several proposed creative decisions (introducing a Best Popular Film category, having less than half of the Best Original Song nominees perform during the ceremony, announcing a handful of awards during commercial breaks) after significant outcry from people in the industry as well as the general public, the leadup to the 91st Annual Academy Awards has been uncharacteristically rocky. This general strangeness ahead of the ceremony has also carried over to the award races, which are as frontrunner-free as the Oscars can possibly be. Here are the films and individuals I expect to emerge from this silly little slice of (potential) Hollywood chaos with gold statues on Sunday night.  

Best Picture:
Nominees:
BlacKkKlansman
Black Panther
Bohemian Rhapsody
The Favourite 
Green Book
Roma
A Star is Born
Vice


And the Winner is...: Roma 
Part of me thinks the Academy is going to try and pander to the general audience they feel they've lost in recent years by giving Best Picture to a crowdpleaser like Green Book or Bohemian Rhapsody. That being said, I'm far too timid to pick against Roma at this point. Yes it's a Spanish-language Netflix production that has polarized audiences and enraged some of the industry's dinosaurs who don't believe streaming service titles should be eligible for film awards because average people can watch them in their living rooms, but it was also arguably the best-reviewed movie of the year and has been widely championed by the non-dinosaur portion of the voting group.

Best Actor:
Nominees:
Christian Bale (Vice)
Bradley Cooper (A Star is Born)
Willem Dafoe (At Eternity's Gate)
Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody)
Viggo Mortensen (Green Book)

And the Winner is....: Christian Bale
Oddsmakers have minted Malek as the favorite after his BAFTA and SAG wins, but I still like Bale here. Bale's transformation into the quietly maniacal Chaney is staggering even by his lofty standards and the batshit insane lengths he went to prepare for the role should help earn him an edge over Malek's less demanding turn as Freddie Mercury.

Best Actress:
Nominees:
Yalitza Aparicio (Roma)
Glenn Close (The Wife)
Olivia Colman (The Favourite)
Lady Gaga (A Star is Born)
Melissa McCarthy (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)

And the Winner is...: Glenn Close
To be completely honest, I think everyone besides McCarthy has a legit shot of winning here. Close, Colman and Gaga each have at least one major award win for their roles and Aparicio is a first time actor who serves as the anchor for the Best Picture favorite. Ultimately, I think it'll be Close coming out on top in this ultracompetitive field. The Academy tends to hand out at least one award to a widely respected actor whose never won before and since she has the most noms (6 prior to this one) without a win of any individual nominated, she seems very likely to be that lucky soul this year (sorry Amy Adams, your time will come eventually).  

Best Supporting Actor:
Nominees:
Mahershala Ali (Green Book)
Adam Driver (BlacKkKlansman)
Sam Elliott (A Star is Born)
Richard E. Grant (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)
Sam Rockwell (Vice)

And the Winner is...: Mahershala Ali
This is the only award in this weird year that I would feel completely comfortable betting on. Ali is the only actor that has swept the major ceremonies up to this point and it would take a large contingent of previously silent anti-Green Book voters for him to not end up with his second Oscar in the last three years.

Best Supporting Actress:
Nominees:
Amy Adams (Vice)
Marina de Tavria (Roma)
Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk)
Emma Stone (The Favourite)
Rachel Weisz (The Favourite)

And the Winner is...: Regina King
King's status as a lock has faded thanks to Rachel's Weisz's BAFTA win and the lack of a nomination at the SAG Awards. Despite the certainty of her winning going down a bit in recent weeks, King has still picked up more accolades than the rest of the field combined coming into Oscar night and boasts the distinction of being the only person in this category that has been widely pegged as the MVP of the movie they starred in. Plus after surprisingly snubbing it for Best Picture, the Academy probably feels like they owe If Beale Street Could Talk an award or two.

Best Director:
Nominees:
Alfonso Cuaron (Roma)
Spike Lee (BlacKkKlansman)
Yorgos Lanthimos (The Favourite)
Adam McKay (Vice)
Pawel Pawlikowski (Cold War)

And the Winner is...: Alfonso Cuaron
Best Director tends to celebrate flashiness more than any other award and no one dazzled more industry folks with their visual flare, shot selection and overall craft in 2018 than Cuaron. The look and feel of Roma is a large part of why its been so acclaimed, which makes Cuaron a near-lock to add yet another Oscar to his crowded trophy case.

Other Predictions:
Best Original Screenplay: The Favourite
Best Adapted Screenplay: BlacKkKlansman
Best Animated Feature: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
Best Foreign Language Film: Roma
Best Documentary Feature: Free Solo
Best Cinematography: Roma
Best Original Score: Black Panther
Best Original Song: "Shallow" (A Star is Born)
Best Film Editing: Vice
Best Costume Design: The Favourite
Best Makeup and Hairstyling: Vice
Best Production Design: The Favourite
Best Sound Editing: Bohemian Rhapsody
Best Sound Mixing: Bohemian Rhapsody 
Best Visual Effects: First Man
Best Live Action Short Film: Marguerite 
Best Animated Short Film: Weekends
Best Documentary-Short Subject: Black Sheep