Buffalo Bills
2021 Record: 11-6 (1st in AFC East)
Head Coach: Sean McDermott (6th season)
Notable Additions: DE Von Miller, G Rodger Saffold, WR Jamison Crowder
Notable Departures: CB Levi Wallace, DE Jerry Hughes, WR Emmanuel Sanders
Biggest Reason for Excitement: Spending the Offseason Adding to Their Embarrassment of Riches
The AFC turned into an increasingly high stakes arms race this offseason and while the Bills didn't grab as many headlines as the Raiders, Broncos or their AFC East peers Dolphins, the moves they made to help them keep up with their most important opponents shouldn't be slept on.
Headlining their activity was the surprising signing of Von Miller-who was perceived to be a lock to return to the Rams after winning his 2nd Super Bowl with them last season. There's an undeniable risk of inking a 33-year old with a pretty extensive injury history to a lengthy, big money deal (6 years/$120 mil/$51.4 mil guaranteed), but as Miller proved once he joined the Rams last season, he's still capable of being a major factor as an all-around edge defender when healthy.
They followed up that whopper with a subtle overhaul at the guard position. Primary 2021 starters Jon Feliciano and Daryl Williams both got cut right before free agency started after putting together pretty poor seasons. Their spots were quickly filled by vets Rodger Saffold and Greg Van Roten. Saffold isn't quite the player he once was, but he's still a plus starter who particularly excels as a run blocker while Van Roten is a well-rounded albeit unflashy player who doesn't make a lot of mistakes.
Even their relatively minor roster-filling moves like replacing Cole Beasley with the shiftier, quicker Jamison Crowder at slot WR should and bringing back old friend Shaq Lawson as a rotational pass-rusher to spell Miller and promising 2nd year player Gregory Rousseau helped make them better on paper than they were a year ago. Building depth, actively addressing needs and making a splashy move or two when the opportunity arises is how championship teams are built and the Bills were able to triumphantly check all of those boxes this offseason.
Biggest Reason for Concern: The Departure of Brian Daboll
Josh Allen has become such a dominant force over the past couple seasons that it's easy to forget how bleak things were at the beginning of his NFL journey. From 2018-19, Allen threw for a combined 30 TD's and 21 INT's and completed just 55.8% of his passes. The man that was behind bringing Allen out of the darkness of QB purgatory and into the glowing light of stardom was Brian Daboll-who also joined the Bills in 2018. Daboll was able to fix Allen's brutal accuracy and timing issues after just 2 seasons in the league, which was really all the tweaking that athletic freak Allen needed to be turned into a dynamic weapon that is really difficult to contain.
After being bafflingly passed over during the 2021 hiring cycle, Daboll was named the Giants new head coach in late January. Unsurprisingly, QB coach Ken Dorsey took over for Daboll-which is a move that Allen has publicly backed. When the man who was responsible for coaching up a young quarterback leaves, concern immediately enters the picture-particularly when the new guy is somebody whose as green as Dorsey. The 41-year old-whose perhaps best known for being the University of Miami quarterback from 1999-2002- has never called plays before and his only other coaching endeavor before taking the Bills QB coach job in 2019 was a muted 4-year stint as the Panthers QB coach from 2013-17.
To be fair, things are much brighter now at the skill positions than they were during Allen's rough 2018 and 2019 when his leading receivers were John Brown, Cole Beasley and Zay Jones and it would be shocking if Allen reverted all the way back to the sloppy, chuck-and-duck gunslinger he was at the start of his career without Daboll in his ear. Still, the loss of a creative offensive mind that helped turn Allen into an elite young quarterback could be a much bigger deal than it's currently being made out to be.
Key to Reaching Their Ceiling: Being Able to Overcome Being a Cursed Franchise
Their fans might be in denial about it, but the Bills are a cursed team with a capital c. Upstate New York's biggest sadness factory has churned out some all-time painful sports moments including 4 straight Super Bowl losses from 1990-93, a 16-year playoff drought that was the longest in American sports until the GOAT losers Sacramento Kings topped them with their still active 18-year streak and most recently, found themselves on the wrong end of an absurd shootout with the Chiefs in the 2021 AFC Divisional Round that was lost through a combination of a lost coin toss at the start of overtime, Harrison Butker hitting a 49-YD field goal at the end of regulation and a few baffling coverage mistakes that left Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce wide open at pivotal moments of the game.
Why am I bringing this up? Well, what the hell else is going to hold this team back other than their tragic history? They've made to at least the Divisional Round in back-to-back seasons, have a roster with minimal weaknesses (running back and what their corner group is going to look like with Tre'Davious White coming off an ACL injury and a physically gifted but notoriously undisciplined rookie Kaiir Elam replacing sturdy vet Levi Wallace at the other outside spot appear to be the only real areas of concern) and a coach in Sean McDermott that is battle-tested and not intimidated by the spotlight. If this decades-long misery anchor can finally be lifted off their shoulders, Bills fans just might be able to finally celebrate their 1st ever Super Bowl victory.
Bottom Line:
The Bills are well-positioned to be at the top of the AFC for a 3rd straight season and it's going to take a lot of injuries or bad shit to knock them out of this tier.
Miami Dolphins
2021 Record: 9-8 (3rd in AFC East)
Head Coach: Mike McDaniel (1st season)
Notable Additions: WR Tyreek Hill, T Terron Armstead, G Connor Williams
Notable Departures: WR DeVante Parker, QB Jacoby Brissett, WR Will Fuller
Biggest Reason for Excitement: Adding Legit Firepower on Offense
The sole sources of offensive excitement on the 2021 Dolphins were watching Jaylen Waddle make being a checkdown option as sexy as humanly possible and Duke Johnson come off the bench and absolutely obliterate the Patriots in a hilarious Week 18 blowout. Courtesy of the major moves they made this offseason, things are all but guaranteed to be more entertaining in 2022.
Tyreek Hill is massive, downright shocking get who should thrive as a versatile option for Mike McDaniel to scheme around, Terron Armstead is a top 3 left tackle in football when healthy that should greatly improve the quality of this long-struggling line on Day 1, the massive new running back platoon (Chase Edmonds, Raheem Mostert, Sony Michel) should keep opponents on their toes with the array of different types of backs they can throw out there over the course of the game and having Connor Williams join Robert Hunt on the interior immediately makes them a much meaner bunch in the trenches. Pair all of these additions with the less attention Waddle and Mike Gesicki will draw as a result of these moves and you suddenly have an offense that deserves to be viewed as a legit threat immediately.
Biggest Reason for Concern: Mike McDaniel
As much as Stephen Ross and Chris Grier have tried to spin it as a move driven by player complaints and "underachievement", the firing of Brian Flores in January was unwarranted and just plain wrong. Flores brought the Dolphins out of the gutter that Adam Gase left them in by getting them to the playoff bubble in only his 2nd season and going an impressive 24-17 after an 0-7 start with a talented-deprived, recently blown-up roster in 2019. If the Football Gods were fair, this sleazy organization would get punished for what they did.
Now this brings us to who the Dolphins replaced Flores with: An upstart offensive coach named Mike McDaniel. Courtesy of some incredible soundbites and stronger than expected output from the 49ers offense, McDaniel caught fire as a potential HC candidate during the 2021 season and seemingly racked up the most interview requests during this cycle outside of Brian Daboll before he ultimately got hired by the Dolphins. Despite his meteoric rise, people don't really know a lot about McDaniel-which makes his head coaching prospects a complete mystery.
As hard as it to believe considering that he looks like he's about 27 years old, McDaniel has actually been around the league for quite a while. He got hired by Gary Kubiak to be an offensive assistant with the Texans back in 2006, developed a relationship with then WR coach Kyle Shanahan during his time there and then went onto work alongside Shanahan in Washington, Cleveland, Atlanta and San Francisco. The strength and longevity of their relationship gave McDaniel unprecedented input on the game planning and in 2021, he became the only official offensive coordinator Shanahan has had since he became the 49ers head coach in 2017. A notoriously uncollaborative coach like Shanahan giving McDaniel that much of a voice in the offensive meeting room indicates an immense level of respect for his football mind that he's never had for any of his other offensive assistants.
For as much respect as McDaniel had from Shanahan and the players in San Francisco-who hailed him as a smart, creative coach that deserved to be viewed as an offensive mastermind, nobody knows what McDaniel is going to be like as a head coach. Is his system just going to be a bunch of zone rushes, play action passes and jet sweeps or is McDaniel going to deviate from the "Shanahan" offense? What is he like as a play caller? Does he have what it takes to elevate Tua's game and break the Dolphins offensive out of the monotonous rut they've been stuck for the better part of the best? Is he capable of dealing with any potential philosophical differences and rifts between himself and the defensive coaching staff-which largely consists of holdovers from Flores' staff? McDaniel's identity and aptitude as a coach is going to go very far in dictating whether the Dolphins sink or swim in 2022.
Key to Reaching Their Ceiling: The Play of Tua Tagovailoa
What the hell did Tua Tagovailoa do to become so hated? It's not his fault that the front office took him instead of Justin Herbert-who nobody on the planet would've drafted over Tua in April 2020- and he has a 13-8 record as a starter in his inaugural 2 NFL seasons, so it's not like the team has collapsed with him under center. The frustration with Tua stems from the fact that he was picked #5 overall and has yet to make the impact people expected out of top 5. He's been a glorified game manager with tremendous accuracy (his 67.8% clip was actually the best in the league last year) who hasn't really won or lost a game for the Dolphins over the past 2 seasons. When people are expecting big plays and franchise-altering greatness out of a player, steady, unflashy play that doesn't tend to impact games isn't going to leave a lot of fans feeling great about the pick or player (especially when the player in question was drafted over someone who does have those electrifying qualities).
As training camp opens, all eyes are on Tua. Everything from the velocity and distance of his throws to what McDaniel is having him do under center to how many reps his new backup Teddy Bridgewater gets with the 1's will be analyzed like the fucking Zapruder film by local and national media alike. To be clear, I do understand why Tua watch is the biggest Dolphins narrative heading into the season. This is the most talent the Dolphins have had on their roster since the late 2000's/early 2010's and the one guy that has the best odds of holding them back is their quarterback. Filling holes at other spots on the fly can work fine, but poor QB play is something that can't be fixed in-season and having the QB drag down an otherwise promising team is just plain infuriating.
Make no mistake, the Dolphins can win if Tua remains more or less the same player. Their offensive line/running game should be much better with all of the new blood they brought in and they have a defense that is strong enough to hold their opponents to 17-22 points per game if Tua can simply limit turnovers and sustain drives for long enough to keep them relatively fresh.
But if McDaniel is able to get Tua to the point where can mirror what Jimmy Garoppolo did in San Francisco by making some splash plays and putting together the occasional 300-YD passing game while still effectively functioning as a game manager, the Dolphins will be in a great spot. Even though I'd like to see Ross' dirtbag ass continue to fail, Tua is a really easy guy to root for and I hope he takes a long-awaited step forward in 2022.
Bottom Line:
If Tua and McDaniel can gel and improve this offense to the point where they can match the level of their defense, the Dolphins could be the AFC's surprise contenders
New England Patriots
2021 Record: 10-7 (2nd in AFC East)
Head Coach: Bill Belichick (23rd season)
Notable Additions: WR DeVante Parker, CB Malcolm Butler, S Jabrill Peppers
Notable Departures: CB J.C. Jackson, G Shaq Mason, OLB Kyle Van Noy
Biggest Reason for Excitement: Year 2 of Mac Jones
Jones' rookie year went about as well as it possibly could've. Although things didn't end well for the Pats as they went 1-4 after their bye week and got blown out by the Bills in the Wild Card round, the #15 overall pick in the 2021 draft was a steadying presence for a Patriots offense that was held back by Cam Newton's physical limitations in 2020. Amidst all of the concerning developments about the state of the offensive coaching staff and roster following the departures of multiple key players, the frequent news drops about how serious Jones was taking his offseason program served as a much-needed silver lining during a period where bad headlines were dominating the news coming out of Foxboro.
He bulked up, hosted multiple offseason workouts with his receivers and reported to training camp a full week before he was required to. As routine as this sounds, not every quarterback is willing to go to those lengths to try and improve their game. Jones has limitations with his athleticism and arm strength that will probably prevent him from ever becoming an elite quarterback, but the Patriots should be proud that they drafted a kid who has the attitude and work ethic required to have a long, successful NFL career to be their next starting QB.
Biggest Reason for Concern: Offensive Coaching Staff
Getting positive early results out of Mac Jones finally gave Josh McDaniels the courage to flee the safety of the Patriots OC job and give head coaching another crack 12 full years after he was canned from the Broncos after less than 2 tumultuous seasons. Losing the steady presence of McDaniels-whose second stint as Patriots OC ended up lasting 10 seasons-was a devastating blow to Jones and a youth-driven offense that would've really benefited from that continuity. With McDaniels gone, the narrative quickly shifted to who was going to replace him. Would they promote Nick Caley-the longest-tenured returning member of their offensive staff and lone assistant that they explicitly prevented from joining McDaniels' staff in Vegas? Would they give Massachusetts native Bill O'Brien a call and ask him if he'd be interested in returning to the post that he officially occupied in 2011 (and unofficially occupied for the 2 years prior to that)? Would Bill Belichick entertain bringing in his former AFC East colleague Adam Gase-who is currently unemployed and has tons of OC experience? None of these men ended up getting the job.
Instead, Belichick shocked the world by tasking 2 people that nobody in a million years would've ever wanted or expected to them run the offense: Matt Patricia-whose official title is senior football advisor/offensive line coach and Joe Judge-whose official title is senior offensive assistant/quarterbacks coach. Belichick's loosey goosey approach with titles and roles on the defensive coaching staff works well enough because Bill himself is a defensive maestro who has always been hands-on with the day-to-day coaching/playcalling. Utilizing this same approach on the offensive side of ball just reeks of arrogance and laziness.
For starters, Patricia and Judge are not offensive coaches. Patricia logged 2 seasons as an offensive assistant/assistant o-line coach back in 2004-05 and Judge was involved with coaching the WR's during the final season of his previous tenure with the Patriots in 2019 (there is some belief that he was involved with the Giants offensive play calling last season-which if true, would actually make him getting this role more alarming than it is currently). Tasking 2 guys with barely any relevant experience to not only run the offense but implement a new system (they're apparently shifting to a more QB-friendly, zone-blocking scheme that's similar to what Kyle Shanahan uses with the 49ers) feels ill-advised at best and needlessly reckless at worst.
On top of their inexperience, Patricia and Judge are coming off head coaching stints that can only be described as catastrophic failures. Both of these guys got shitcanned after being testy with the media, completely losing the respect of their players due to their arrogant, hardo personas and doing an absolutely miserable job of managing games. These guys were downright radioactive in their previous gigs and if they weren't loyal acolytes of Bill Belichick, they'd be competing with Mike Singletary and Marc Trestman for gigs in the XFL right now.
Topping off the laziness/arrogance trifecta are the reports out there that the only reason Belichick tapped Judge and Patricia for these roles is because he knows they'll be around for a while and doesn't want to frequently reshuffle his staff at this point in his career. What kind of idiotic bullshit is that? That's basically admitting that somebody like O'Brien or Caley would be good enough in the role to potentially earn a head coaching gig!!!! And even if Bill insisted on hiring somebody who was in no danger of leaving to become a HC elsewhere, why not just hire Gase? He at least has proven he's a legit NFL OC and wouldn't gain any traction in a head coaching search unless he paid off a GM to throw his name in the hat. If/when this shit blows up in his face, Belichick's egotistical desire to fully surround himself with yes men at this point in his career will be solely to blame.
Key to Reaching Their Ceiling: The Play of Their Defense
Up here in the Boston area, questions over the construction/talent level of the defense are a massive narrative going into camp. While the major personnel losses are limited to top corner J.C. Jackson and outside linebacker Kyle Van Noy, the gaps in the lineup their departures have created are being filled in ways that are understandably making people nervous. Jackson's replacement at outside corner is currently projected to Patriots Super Bowl folk hero turned Patriots Super Bowl scapegoat Malcolm Butler-who is back in football after "retiring" following a training camp stint with the Cardinals last year or below average journeyman Terrance Mitchell while Van Noy's slot is currently expected to be filled by trade acquisition Mack Wilson-who spent his 3 seasons in Cleveland dazzling people with his speed and infuriating people with his suspect tackling. Not exactly the type of players you want competing for starting spots on your defense in a non-injury related situation...
Even with these couple of instances of clear downgrades at key spots, I'm not as concerned about the defense on the whole as most people are. Covering up deficiencies with ideal scheming and turning guys into unexpected assets through strong coaching is something that Belichick has been able to do a lot of throughout his career. Their lack of a clear #1 corner can be canceled out by playing a ton of zone-which is something that Jalen Mills, Jonathan Jones, Mitchell and Butler should have no issue doing and if Belichick can get anything of an untested, athletic wild card like Cameron McGrone or Raekwon McMillan at the linebacker spot alongside returning starter Ja'Whaun Bentley, they'll be able to make a lot of plays in the middle of the field that that their lack of speed prevented them from making last season.
Plus, they still have plenty of established talent to balance out their problem areas. Their safety group (Kyle Dugger, Devin McCourty, Adrian Phillips, newcomer Jabrill Peppers) are as rangey and versatile as any group in the league, the interior defensive line group is a reliable group of vets (Lawrence Guy, Davon Godchaeux, Carl Davis, Henry Anderson) that are regularly joined by a young buck (Christian Barmore) who appears on track to become the league's next great interior pass-rusher and while they won't be mentioned among the league's most feared attacks anytime soon, Matthew Judon and Deatrich Wise Jr. are a perfectly fine pass-rushing tandem that could receive a nice boost if Josh Uche or Ronnie Perkins pops. The keys to the Patriots overachieving lies on this side of the ball and deep down, Belichick probably knows that and is doing everything he possibly can to try and turn this group into a top 10-12 unit.
Bottom Line:
The offensive coaching staff situation paired with their failure to adequately replace departed/traded talent on both sides of the ball (didn't get a chance to mention it above but losing Shaq Mason and Ted Karras could be devastating to their o-line) has me believing that this is going to be the worst season the Patriots have had under Belichick since 2000.
New York Jets
2021 Record: 4-13 (4th in AFC East)
Head Coach: Robert Saleh (2nd season)
Notable Additions: G Laken Tomlinson, CB D.J. Reed, S Jordan Whitehead
Notable Departures: S Marcus Maye, WR Jamison Crowder, T Morgan Moses
Biggest Reason for Excitement: The Arrow is Pointing Up for the First Time since 2016
There's an unfamiliar feeling going around Jets circles right now: Optimism. Even after another ugly 4-13 season last year, Joe Douglas has made enough savvy moves of late to have people drinking that J-E-T-S Kool-Aid.
Robert Saleh is a living, breathing human being who is loved by his players and seems to know what the hell he's doing. Douglas has put together back-to-back drafts that have given the team a promising young corps (Zach Wilson, Alijah Vera-Tucker, Elijah Moore, Michael Carter, Sauce Gardner, Garrett Wilson, Jermaine Johnson II, Breece Hall) on both sides of the ball. The offensive line appears to be pretty good and seems set to improve further in 2022 after the signing of veteran guard/world class people mover Laken Tomlinson this offseason. They've made savvy free agent signings to address problem areas (Tomlinson, D.J. Reed, Jordan Whitehead, C.J. Uzomah, Tyler Conklin, possibly Carl Lawson if he can bounce back from the Achillies injury he suffered at camp last year) while maintaining the cap flexibility to pursue star talent in future years if they happen to become available. Anytime the Jets seems like they're trending up is a cause for celebration, so let the good times roll while you can people.
Biggest Reason for Concern: Their Secondaries Ability to Hold Up Against High-Powered Passing Attacks
The 2021 Jets ranked 30th in passing YDS allowed, 20th in passing TD's allowed and 30th in INT's. Given those horrific stats, the Jets made the secondary a top priority this offseason and brought in several new pieces to try and fix this long-standing problem.
Sauce Gardner is one of the most highly touted man-to-man outside corner prospects of the past decade after allowing 0 TD's during his time at the University of Cincinnati, D.J. Reed was a quietly rock solid outside corner for the Seahawks over the past couple seasons that is still young enough (25 going on 26) to greatly improve over the course of his 3-year deal and Jordan Whitehead put together back-to-back productive seasons with the Bucs as a safety who split his time between the box and dropping back in coverage. They also have the potential of getting another new starter in veteran journeyman Lamarcus Joyner, who missed all but 1 game last season and will ironically be competing with his 2021 injury replacement Ashtyn Davis for the open safety spot next to Whitehead. Considering the skill limitations of the personnel they were trotting out last season, this group is pretty much guaranteed to be much better.
While the Jets deserved to be commended for who they brought in to be the new starters in the secondary, there's reason to believe that they could still have some issues slowing down opposing receivers. A look around the AFC East alone reveals 6 weeks' worth of imposing matchups against a collection of established elite talents (Stefon Diggs, Tyreek Hill), promising young guns (Jaylen Waddle, Gabriel Davis) and home run hitters (Kendrick Bourne, Nelson Agholor) that have the ability to blow past a corner or juke somebody out of their cleats on any given play. Things only get more imposing when you look deeper on their schedule and see matchups against the Bengals, Vikings, Steelers, Broncos and Seahawks. In terms of opposing receiver draws in the year 2022, that's pretty close to bad as a 17-game NFL slate can possibly get.
Even if Reed and Gardner are able to hold their own against this WR gauntlet, projected starting slot corner Michael Carter II-who played pretty poorly as a rookie-allowing 60 receptions on 78 targets with 0 INT's and only 5 passes defensed to counteract his high completion percentage allowed- could be an exploitable hole that receivers with inside/outside versatility like Hill, Ja'Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson can take full advantage of if he doesn't make serious strides in year 2.
Further complicating things is the presence of an oft-injured, coverage-challenged player in Joyner or a below average 3rd year player in Davis occupying a key space in the middle of the field. Neither of these guys seems equipped to stop burners from making plays downfield and that could end up causing bigger problems than a slot corner not playing up to par. If they can register even a half decent 2022 campaign while having their feet held to the fire in roughly 2/3 of their games, this largely young group should be in dame fine shape moving forward.
Key to Reaching Their Ceiling: Zach Wilson Making a Sizable Year 2 Leap
There may not be a bigger enigma from the 2021 QB class heading into this season than Wilson. Everybody is writing off Trevor Lawrence's struggles as simply collateral damage from the Urben Meyer clown show. Justin Fields and Trey Lance have already amassed an impressive list of vocal doubters that arguably surpasses anybody in the past 7-8 years not named Josh Rosen. Davis Mills is being billed as the pleasant surprise and potential savior of the Texans franchise. And last but certainly not least, Mac Jones is being viewed as a worthy heir to Tom Brady's throne in New England.
Where Wilson actually stands heading into 2022 completely depends on who you talk to. Some people believe his improved decisionmaking/accuracy in the final weeks of the 2021 season, the Jets improvements at the skill positions and his advantage of returning to the exact same system-which is a luxury that none of his fellow class of 2021 members have-are signs that he's going to improve. Others point to his ugly INT's, struggles with handling pressure and lack of significant production (he only threw for 2,334 and 9 TD's in 13 games last year) as signs that he's going to continue to falter at the pro level.
Prior to the emergence of the "banging his mom's friend" story earlier this month that tabled any football-related discussions about Wilson for the time being, the chatter on the Jets beat surrounding him was strong. His OTA/mini-camp performances were sharp and his top returning target from last year Elijah Moore publicly gushed about how much better he's gotten from year 1 to year 2. While it's clearly too early to tell if these positive practice showings will mean anything when the meaningful game reps come around in September, any sign that possibly indicates Wilson is on the right track after a pretty rough rookie year should be music to Jets fans ears. Wilson has a raw skill set that is reminiscent of Justin Herbert and Josh Allen and if Mike LaFluer can help him get the ball out quicker and cut down on the boneheaded throws that lead to easy picks, he has the chance to be really special this year and beyond.
Bottom Line:
Book it folks: I think Zach Wilson and the defense will improve significantly enough for the Jets to squeak into the playoffs. Dice Roll City, USA Population: Me.
Projected Standings:
1.Buffalo Bills (12-5)
2.New York Jets (10-7)
3.Miami Dolphins (9-8)
4.New England Patriots (6-11)
No comments:
Post a Comment