Denver Broncos
2021 Record: 7-10 (4th in AFC West)
Head Coach: Nathaniel Hackett (1st season)
Notable Additions: QB Russell Wilson, DE Randy Gregory, CB K'Wuan Williams
Notable Departures: TE Noah Fant, DT/DE Shelby Harris, QB Teddy Bridgewater
Biggest Reason for Excitement: Russell Wilson's Arrival
This may be the single most obvious choice of the entire series so far. How could the acquisition of Russell Wilson not absolutely delight the Broncos organizations and their fans? Since the team won the Super Bowl in 2015 with a depleted Peyton Manning, they've had 1 winning season and 0 playoff appearances while trotting out a sad carousel of QB's that included Trevor Siemian, Paxton Lynch, Drew Lock, Brock Osweiler, Case Keenum, Joe Flacco and Teddy Bridgewater. During that same span, Wilson logged 4 playoff appearances and 1 losing season with the Seahawks. Getting a QB who has a Super Bowl ring, one of the most impressive resumes of any active QB and is just 2 years removed from a 40 TD season feels like a divine blessing after sitting through 6 straight seasons of mediocre-to-wretched play from that season. There are plenty of questions about Wilson's longevity and the makeup of the Broncos roster that could dampen the party a bit, but for now, everybody who works, plays or roots for this team should be thrilled about the return of a real quarterback to the Mile High City.
Biggest Reason for Concern: Wilson's Level of Play at This Stage of His Career
Any celebration of the Wilson trade ends here. Now, it's time to get down to the cynical caveats attached to it. 2021 proved to be Wilson's worst season as a pro and that is reenforced by him picking up a losing record (6-8) as a starter for the 1st time in his career. There were plenty of factors that led to the Seahawks struggles last season including Wilson hurting the thumb on his throwing hand in early October, a questionable performance from 1st year OC Shane Waldron and a defense that couldn't stop anybody-particularly through the air, but Wilson's struggles weren't solely linked to injuries. Something felt off about his game even before he dinged up his thumb and the clutch, scrambling deep ball-chucking version of Wilson barely made any appearances last season. Could this be attributed to him being a poor fit in Waldron's scheme? For sure, but Wilson's age (33 going on 34) paired with his small stature and all the hits he took behind the Seahawks pretty consistently poor offensive line for a decade, 2021 could go down as the start of a notable decline in play for Mr. Unlimited.
Adding to these concerns is the harsh reality that he might not be entering a rosier situation in Denver. The Broncos offensive line isn't exactly an impenetrable fortress with none of their lineman save for Garrett Bolles demonstrating better than somewhat above average play of late, Nathaniel Hackett is an enigma as an offensive mind (more on that in a minute), their defense is pretty average save for a couple secondary pieces (Justin Simmons, Patrick Surtain II) and ironically got worse when they shipped their best front 7 player Shelby Harris to Seattle in the Wilson trade (nobody will be able to sell me that Randy Gregory is some kind of real impact player after 1 decent season in Dallas) and while still talented pro WR's, Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy aren't as dynamic or reliable as the duo of DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett that Wilson left behind. If Wilson is indeed still physically capable of playing at a high level, he's going to need be into an optimal situation to get past the hurdles that the Seahawks couldn't clear of late and I'm not confident that the Broncos can provide that for him.
Key to Reaching Their Ceiling: Nathaniel Hackett Being a Legit Offensive Mind
Nathaniel Hackett ended up as the newest head coach of the Broncos based off his recent tenure as the Packers offensive coordinator. Considering that Aaron Rodgers won 2 MVP's and the Packers went 39-10 in the regular season during his tenure there, it's easy to see why teams seeking an offensive-minded head coach were eager to land Hackett. There are a couple of caveats surrounding the success that Hackett had in Green Bay that need to be floated out into the world: 1. Rodgers is a finished product who doesn't need/want much coaching at this stage of his career. 2. Matt LaFluer calls the offensive plays and serves as the primary offensive game planner in Green Bay. Those pieces of information alone do a long way in clouding up Hackett's resume.
Well, that's just the start of the ambiguity surrounding Hackett. Prior to joining the Packers, Hackett had 2 stints as an offensive coordinator where he was responsible for calling the plays. However, those gigs were with the Bills in 2013-14 and the Jaguars in 2016-18. These offenses were led by a platoon of E.J Manuel/Kyle Orton/Thad Lewis/Jeff Tuel and Blake Bortles respectively and the supporting casts weren't a whole lot more appealing, so the largely poor stats amassed during those stints could be largely chalked up to personnel.
Of all the fates Hackett could face now that he's back calling the shots, the only one that is going to help the Broncos break free from this prolonged stretch of below average play is the one where he proves that he's a damn fine offensive mind that had the misfortune of being let down by poor talent in the past. Considering what the Broncos currently have at their disposal, envisioning a scenario where this materializes isn't too much of a stretch. The 1-2 backfield punch of Javonte Williams and Melvin Gordon should provide a coach like Hackett-whose previous history as a playcaller has included a heavy dose of the running game-with a varied attack that disorients and wears down opposing defenses Sutton and Jeudy could be a top 5 starting WR duo in the league if they stay healthy and if Wilson is on his game, Hackett should be delighted with the results he gets out of the QB spot. Anything that veers too far from this idyllic plan being executed well could bring the same old middling results or perhaps something even worse, which wouldn't exactly endear Hackett to a new ownership group that had no input on his hiring.
Bottom Line:
Somebody in the AFC West is going to fall on their faces this season and considering the overall makeup of their roster and mysterious surrounding the viability of their coach, my money is on the Broncos to be that team.
Kansas City Chiefs
2021 Record: 12-5 (1st in AFC West)
Head Coach: Andy Reid (10th season)
Notable Additions: WR JuJu Smith-Schuster, S Justin Reid, WR Marquez Valdez-Scantling
Notable Departures: WR Tyreek Hill, S Tyrann Mathieu, CB Charvarius Ward
Biggest Reason for Excitement: Defensive Improvements
Losing Tyrann Mathieu and the negative buzz that inevitably generates when a respected vocal leader with name recognition leaves the roster has overshadowed the string of movies the Chiefs made on defense that will likely make them a better overall unit.
Letting Charvarius Ward walk in free agency is going to give Rashad Fenton more playing time-which he 100% deserves after his impressive play as an injury fill-in on the outside last year. 1st round pick Trent McDuffie is a physical, smart corner that should be up for the challenge of going against the AFC West's gauntlet of WR's. Carlos Dunlap is a steady pass-rushing presence who could really pop off now that he's transitioning to a situational role with the Chiefs. Their other 1st round pick George Karlaftis could struggle to make waves as a pass-rusher in the early going, but his sound playing style and instincts should make an immediate contributor as a run defender. And finally, Justin Reid has a better long-term forecast than Mathieu and should have no trouble filling his role as the rangey irritant who thumps receivers going over the middle and reels in 3-5 picks per year. Pairing these new additions and reshuffled returning players with continued improvement from some of their younger entrenched starters including Nick Bolton, Juan Thornhill and L'Jarius Sneed could provide Steve Spagnoulo's group withe boost it needs to grow into a top 10 unit.
Biggest Reason for Concern: The Running Game
Having such a dynamic passing attack with Patrick Mahomes at the helm has deemphasized the Chiefs need to be able to rush the ball consistently. Save for the occasional explosion from Clyde-Edwards Helaire in 2020 or Damien Williams in the 2nd half of their Super Bowl win in 2019, the Mahomes-era has been defined by sluggish performances on the game and a constant reminder that they haven't been able to find a replacement for Kareem Hunt since they (rightfully) cut him in November 2018 following the release of a video that showed him assaulting a woman outside of a hotel in Cleveland. Last season they managed to finish 16th in the league-which is exactly where they finished in 2020-in rushing despite not having a single guy finish with more than 558 YDS on the ground (Darrel Williams-who is now an Arizona Cardinal) and getting next to no spark plays on the ground outside of Mahomes himself.
With Tyreek Hill gone, the Chiefs aren't going to be as reliant on speed and splash plays to generate offense. The easiest way to keep the offense humming without those explosions would be to improve the running game. They conceivably have the horses up front with Orlando Brown Jr., Creed Humphrey, Joe Thuney, Trey Smith and Andrew Wylie to open up rushing lanes and even without Hill around, teams are going to be too focused on stopping Mahomes and the passing game to stack the box and make life particularly difficult on the backs. Unfortunately, the Chiefs just don't seem to have the RB talent to make the strides they need to rise above the spot in the direct middle of the pack that they've occupied for the past 2 seasons.
After roster cut down day on Tuesday, it appears they'll be heading into the season with Edwards-Helaire, Jerick McKinnon, Ronald Jones and Isaiah Pacheco. As of right now, it's difficult to get overly excited about anyone in this bunch-even in the context of a committee situation that they're likely to utilize. Edwards-Helaire appears to be the de facto starter once again, but a combination of injuries and questionable patience/vision as a rusher has caused to him have a pretty unassuming start to his NFL career. McKinnon looked really good in the playoffs last year and is probably the best pass-catcher of the bunch, but he's also a massive injury risk that can't be asked to handle a big workload at this stage of his career. Jones was a notoriously up-and-down player during his 4 years with the Bucs that possesses a bad fumbling problem that makes him particularly difficult to trust and it's honestly a bit of a surprise that he was even able to make the roster. The rookie Pacheco is the wild card of the bunch as a late-round selection who impressed in camp and the preseason with his burst, but he got very little run against real NFL players during the exhibition slate and doesn't feel like a steady bet to meaningfully contribute right away.
Andy Reid is the greatest offensive mind in the league whose track record of developing backs with the Eagles and during his early years with the Chiefs is outstanding and doubting his ability to produce a strong rushing game when his team needs it most would be silly. However, nobody from this group has proven they can be a consistently impactful back yet and it's going to take some of his best coaching to date to reverse this group's fortunes.
Key to Reaching Their Ceiling: Making Up for the Loss of Tyreek Hill's Productivity in the Passing Game
A real "the sky is falling!!!" moment happened with the Chiefs when they shockingly dealt Tyreek Hill to the Dolphins in late March following some contract extent negotiations that irreparably damaged the relationship between the two sides. Hill is the single most dynamic receiver in the league and pairing that kind of weapon with Patrick Mahomes' arm talent made the Chiefs a threat to hit a home run on any play. When it comes to the obligatory replacement talk, simply sliding somebody else into Hill's role is off the table. Sure, Mecole Hardman is really fast and will be asked to run some of the vertical streaks that Hill scored many a touchdown on during his time with the Chiefs, but he doesn't quite have the burners that Hill has and he sure as hell doesn't have the route running/YAC skills that made him especially dangerous.
Filling the void in the passing game left by Hill is a job that's going to have to be split up among the WR/TE group. Naturally, Travis Kelce is going to be the new primary target and this is a role that he'll be able to handle just fine. He's been getting a shitload of attention for ages and getting a little bit more isn't going to stop him from being massively productive. As I just mentioned above, Hardman will be a deep ball specialist that should also be able to handle some of the jet sweeps they liked to run with Hill as well.
Here's where things start to get tricky: Kelce and Hardman are the only returning primary pass-catchers for the Chiefs, so most of these guys have the extra pressure of having to develop a rapport with Mahomes and learn a new offense while they also try and help their new team make up for the loss of an All-Pro/potential future HOF wideout. It's a shitty ask, but this group should be able to make it work.
The clear favorite for the #2 role at present is Juju Smith-Schuster. Juju ended his stint with the Steelers on a really sour note where he got more attention for TikTok dances than his play on the field, but he was really held back by the Steelers ultra-limited passing offense during Ben Roethlisberger's bloated mannequin era of 2020-21 and joining a more creative group with a quarterback that can actually throw the ball more than 9 yards downfield should do wonders for his productivity and allow him to return to the reliable YAC machine he once was.
Also expected to be among the starting lineup is Marquez Valdez-Scantling. As prone to disappearing as he was during his stint with the Packers, Valdez-Scantling is a freakish athlete who can haul in contested catches and make huge plays downfield. A move to an offense that is more open to spreading the ball around and doesn't have a moody quarterback who is known to ice receivers for weeks at a time every time they make a mistake could benefit him immensely.
Rounding out the depth chart is rookie Skyy Moore and ex-Buccaneer Justin Watson. Moore is a very interesting prospect who is tough and shifty enough to play in the slot while also being big and fast enough to play on the outside. His role right now is kind of up in the air, but there's a chance he becomes a real contributor later in the year once he gets better acclimated to the pro game.
Watson's resume isn't overly impressive, as he's only logged 23 career receptions in 4 NFL seasons. He has however made some splash plays and was a practice favorite of one Tom Brady, so maybe there's some untapped potential there that wasn't given the chance to shine in the Bucs loaded receiver room.
There's enough versatility and raw talent present in their ranks to remain a potent passing attack, it'll just be up to Reid and Eric Biniemy to figure out where each guy is going to be slotted on the field/which role they're going to playing in the passing game and Mahomes to make sure everybody gets involved.
Bottom Line:
I believe that the rumors of the Chiefs demise are greatly exaggerated and would be downright shocked if they weren't back in the playoffs and competeing for a title in 2022.
Las Vegas Raiders
2021 Record: 10-7 (2nd in AFC West)
Head Coach: Josh McDaniels (1st season)
Notable Additions: WR Davante Adams, OLB Chandler Jones, ILB Jayon Brown
Notable Departures: CB Casey Hayward Jr., OLB Yannick Ngakoue, ILB Corey Littleton
Biggest Reason for Excitement: Landing Davante Adams
While a breakout campaign from Hunter Renfrow stopped the bleeding a bit, the Raiders receiving corps was in a really rough spot last year. Neither Zay Jones or Bryan Edwards could fill the vertical threat role that Nelson Agholor exceled in during the 2020 season and Henry Ruggs' vehicular manslaughter incident further contributed to the black cloud that was surrounding the entire organization following the Jon Gruden email leak as well as abruptly ended the career of a player that the Raiders had positioned to be their long-term WR1. Well, the wounds of the 2021 season were quickly healed when the Raiders swung a stunning trade for Davante Adams.
Adams getting traded to the Raiders still doesn't feal real. Like why the hell would the Packers agree to trade the best WR in the league immediately after Aaron Rodgers re-signed with the team when they have no succession plan in place?!?!? That would be an act of lunacy! But since this deal is somehow indeed real, the potential implications of it have to be discussed.
Adding Adams alters the entire complexion of the Raiders offense. Gone are the days of chucking the ball downfield with the hopes that Bryan Edwards can reel it in or dinking-and-dunking their way down the field with short crossers to Renfrow. They now have a do-it all superstar receiver who is the best route-runner, contested catch specialist and redzone threat in the league at their disposal and all of the possibilities for utilizing that talent are endless. The reunion with Derek Carr-who was his college QB at Fresno State and opportunities his presence will open up for Renfrow and Darren Waller-who is back at full health after a disappointing 2021 season that saw him nursing injuries for the bulk of the year-are just the cherries on top of this potentially-franchise altering move.
Kudos to Dave Zeigler and Josh McDaniels for being bold enough to make this kind of move a mere 2 months into their tenure with the team. All that time working for Bill Belichick clearly made them want to rebel and acquire a superstar as soon as they got out from under the roof of their domineering father who refuses to adapt to the modern ways of doing business.
Biggest Reason for Concern: The Offensive Line
Sorry, there is ONE thing that could stop Davante Adams... The Raiders have the misfortune of having one of the worst offensive lines in football and having a good left tackle in Kolten Miller that has steadily improved throughout his career is probably the only reason they're not in contention for the title of the absolute worst. Andre James, John Simpson, Jermaine Elmeanour and Lester Cotton Sr. aren't starting offensive lineman in the pros. Hell, they're barely qualified to be bottom of the depth chart guys that only get playing time in extreme injury situations. These guys are the rare nightmarish combination of inept blockers and frequent flag-drawers who specialize in maddening holding and false start infractions. This was demonstrated with their brutal preseason showings that served as a clinic in getting blown away by the defense and racking up negative yards for their offense with all the penalties they picked up. 2021 1st round pick Alex Leatherwood being deemed not good enough to even grace a roster that features such a putrid collection of starters is a startling indictment on his game at the pro level. Since no help will be arriving this season, Derek Carr is going to need to do a lot of finger-crossing that he can make it through the season healthy and steadily move the ball/score points despite having a platoon of overmatched jabronis tasked with protecting him.
Key to Reaching Their Ceiling: The Maxx Crosby/Chandler Jones Duo Living Up to their Potential
Maxx Crosby's breakout 2021 All-Pro campaign becomes even more impressive when the lack of help he received from the supporting cast is factored into his statistical output (56 tackles, 8 sacks, 30 QB hits, 13 TFL's, 7 passes defensed). Crosby did the dirty work on the edge that allowed to Yannick Ngakoue to pick up his typical hollow 10 sacks on 8,000 pass-rushing attempts and often bailed out the poor play of their interior line (Jonathan Hankins, Quentin Jefferson, Solomon Thomas) with his deceptively strong play against the run.
This year, Crosby will go be going to war with somebody new on the edge and he should provide some much-needed help. The Raiders inked none other than 2x All-Pro/4x Pro Bowl edge rusher Chandler Jones to a deal in free agency after deciding to move on from Ngakoue after 1 season. While Jones has lost a couple steps since he exited the peak of his prime, he's still a very productive pass-rusher (he registered 10.5 sacks with the Cardinals last season) that will draw enough attention to make double teaming Crosby impossible. As long as Crosby's dominant 2021 wasn't a fluke and Jones doesn't hit a wall at age 32 going on 33, the prospect of a free-moving Crosby and Jones terrorizing opposing backfields should horrify any team that has a date with the Raiders this season
An added benefit to Crosby and Jones taking off as an edge duo would be the pressure their pressure would take off the secondary. Their pass defense ranked 13th in YDS and 22nd in TD's allowed last season and that was with Casey Hayward putting together a dame fine season on the outside and Nate Hobbs being a very pleasant surprise as a rookie in the slot. With the new combination of Rock Ya-Sin and Anthony Averett on the outside and Hobbs entering his sophomore season with legit expectations to follow up and build upon his strong rookie years, the potential for a much worse finish without some help from the stud edge rushers is very strong.
Bottom Line:
Despite the regime change and some glaring holes on key parts of their roster (offensive line, corner), the Raiders have enough proven firepower on offense and potential game-changers on the front 7 to be in the playoff mix again this year.
Los Angeles Chargers
2021 Record: 9-8 (3rd in AFC West)
Head Coach: Brandon Staley (2nd season)
Notable Additions: CB J.C. Jackson, OLB Khalil Mack, OLB Kyle Van Noy
Notable Departures: CB Chris Harris Jr., OLB Uchenna Nwosu, ILB Kyzir White
Biggest Reason for Excitement: All of the Big-Ticket Additions on Defense
Putrid interior defensive line play, an overmatched corner group led by rookies and over-the-hill veterans and undisciplined linebackers were all huge factors in the Chargers defensive struggles that saw them rank near the bottom of the league in most major categories (29th in scoring defense, 30th in rushing defense, 29th in rushing TD's allowed, 32nd in 3rd down defense, 26th in redzone defense, 22nd in YDS allowed per pass attempt). For the 2nd straight offseason, Tom Telesco took advantage of the cap flexibility that comes with having a QB on a rookie deal and aggressively addressed their biggest issues by adding top-end talent. Within the first 5 days of the new league year, Telesco acquired the top corner on the market (shutdown ballhawk J.C. Jackson), a star edge rusher with a multi-faceted game that perfectly complements Joey Bosa (Khalil Mack), a run-stuffing interior lineman (Sebastain Joseph-Day) and a smart, versatile linebacker that can handle everything from rushing the passer to coverage assignments in the middle of the field (Kyle Van Noy). Later on in the offseason, he capped things off with a pair of dice rolls in the super athletic, but very raw rookie safety J.T. Woods and the talented, but oft-injured veteran slot corner Bryce Callahan. Jackson already getting dinged up in camp and requiring minor ankle surgery that will likely keep out for the beginning of the regular season isn't the best start to this haul, but it's hard to not get giddy over what throwing this degree of high-end talent alongside established stars in Bosa and Derwin James and intriguing raw talents like Nasir Adderely and Asante Samuel Jr. could do for this defense.
Biggest Reason for Concern: Brandon Staley's Reliance on Analytics
As horrific as the defense was, Brandon Staley's egregious use of analytics were equally to blame for the Chargers falling just short of the playoffs last season. Getting cute and going for it on 4th or going for 2 after a TD was semi-justifiable in the first 6 games when kicker Tristian Vizcaino was shanking kicks on the regular (he whiffed a shocking 6 extra points during his time in LA), but it became a lot harder to justify once Dustin Hopkins arrived and proved he could be relied on to make kicks (he was 18/20 on FG's and 30/32 on XP's in his 11 games with the Chargers last year). Those mismanaged situations were actually directly responsible for the late season losses to the Chiefs and Raiders that ultimately kept them out of the playoffs.
While it's possible that season-ending Week 18 loss to the Raiders got Staley to rethink his overly aggressive, data-driven philosophy, people should be sweating bullets when the first major 4th down situation in a tight game arrives this season. Staley is by all accounts a good football mind, but as we've seen with Andy Reid's clock management woes and Kyle Shanahan refusing to run the ball in the 2nd half of the Super Bowl, great coaches can overthink shit and end up costing themselves games in the process. Putting down the spreadsheet is going to be hard for a young coach who clearly loves putting data into practice on a football field, but if the Chargers keep losing games due to Staley refusal to send the kicker out on a 4th and 12th on the opponents 20-yard line or on a 4th and goal from the 9, he will be applying data to real-world situations somewhere far away from a pro football field in the very near future.
Key to Reaching Their Ceiling: The Chargers Historic Bad Luck Not Making Too Many Appearances
Looking at the Chargers current situation should be enough to inspire a great deal of confidence about their chances. Justin Herbert is a rising star who has the tools to be the best QB in the league someday. Their offensive line greatly improved with the additions of Rashawn Slater, Corey Linsley and Matt Feiler last season and should be even better this year with the addition of rookie guard Zion Johnson-who looked great throughout the preseason. Their collection of offensive skill position players (Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Austin Ekeler, Josh Palmer, Jalen Guyton, Gerald Everett, the just-signed Sony Michel) is among the most exciting, explosive and dynamic in the entire league. While there are still some flaws at inside linebacker and along the defensive interior that will almost certainly prevent them from being a shutdown group, their defense has enough talent that they should be able to improve dramatically from last season's generally terrible numbers.
What's preventing a lot of people from going all-in on the Chargers is their history of things going wrong. Guys like Allen, James, Bosa, Mack and Mike Williams who have all missed considerable time with injuries during their careers-could be all on IR in short order. Or perhaps Hopkins will follow the lead of so many past Chargers kickers and shank multiple game-winning kicks before he gets released and replaced by another doomed soul in early November. Then there's of course the fun possibility that Staley keeps riding the analytics train and losses them 5-7 winnable games when they fail to score or convert. There are endless negative outcomes out there for the Chargers and if the football gods have their way, they'll experience many of them once again this season.
The fate of this team is largely beholden to how much of this bad luck surfaces during the regular season. If the injuries, coaching gaffes and bad breaks are kept to a minimum, they should be a wagon. If the football gods to make it rain misery and misfortunate on the Chargers yet again, they're likely be headed to the bottom of this perceived juggernaut division and towards another top 12-15 draft pick. What direction they get in pulled could be revealed as early as Week 4 or as late as Week 18 (again). There are no rules to the Chargers bad luck, which is what makes it so hard to predict and so painful to experience as a fan.
Bottom Line:
I'm foolish enough to believe at this point that the Chargers won't get hit overly hard by their cursed tendencies this season and they will make the playoffs as a result of the mercy of the football gods.
Projected Standings:
1.Kansas City Chiefs (12-5)
2.Los Angeles Chargers (11-6)
3.Las Vegas Raiders (9-8)
4.Denver Broncos (6-11)
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