Wednesday, June 3, 2015

2015 NBA Finals Prediction

Like any championship series, the matchup between the Golden State Warriors and Cleveland Cavaliers has no shortage of story lines. LeBron James vs. Stephen Curry. A team that was mostly built through the draft and lacks a traditional superstar vs. a team that was built around signing a superstar then recruiting assorted role players from around the league to join him. Anyway you look at this NBA Finals, it's full of intrigue and it's the matchup a majority of basketball fans wanted as these two teams were the best in their respective conferences all season long. The Warriors and Cavaliers are pretty evenly matched as both teams can put point up a ton of points in the paint or from three-point land and screw up an offense's rhythm with stifling defense. What I believe this series will come down to is the health of Cavaliers superstars James and Kyrie Irving. They may have had a week and a half to rest before the start of this series, but James and Irving been battling lingering injuries and that may not be enough time for their health to improve by a notable margin. James should continue to solider on through his back injury without much drop in production, but if Irving's foot injury keeps his offense limited to isolated three's and outside jump shots, there could be some serious issues. Guys like Iman Shumpert, J.R. Smith and Matthew Dellavedova can't be counted on to make strong scoring contributions night after night and when James puts too much scoring responsibility on himself, the team has suffered. The let James fire away strategy may have been worked against the Hawks in the Eastern Conference finals, but the Warriors are too physical and aggressive on the boards and too good at capitalizing off of turnovers (the Cavs averaged 11.8 turnovers per game in the Eastern Conference finals) to allow the Cavs offense get away with being sloppy with the ball and score a ton of second-chance points like the Hawks did. I also believe the Cavs don't have an answer for the Warrior's bigs. Draymond Green has been playing lights out for the entire playoffs, containing the likes of Anthony Davis and Marc Gasol defensively and putting up consistently strong offensive showings with his combination of strong post play and a surprisingly decent outside shot while Andrew Bogut has backed up his reputation as one of the toughest defensive players in the NBA with his excellent rebounding and shot-blocking ability. Tristan Thompson and Timofey Mozgov are solid players who are no slouches on the boards and can put up points when called upon, but they lack the offensive fluidity and high-motors defensively to hang with Green, Bogut and Festus Ezeli for an entire series. 

Prediction: Warriors over Cavaliers in 6
Finals MVP: Stephen Curry

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