Thursday, July 27, 2017

2017 NFL Preview: AFC East

Buffalo Bills
2016 Record: 7-9 (3rd in AFC East)
Head Coach: Sean McDermott (1st season)
Notable Additions: K Steven Hauschka, OLB Gerald Hodges, S Micah Hyde
Notable Departures: CB Stephon Gilmore, ILB Zach Brown, WR Robert Woods

-After heavy speculation about owner Terry Pegula wanting to select his successor in this year's draft, the Bills committed to Tyrod Taylor as their starting quarterback for at least the 2017 season by re-working the complex, fugazi "contract extension" he signed before the 2016 season. The fact that the team was seriously considering severing ties with Taylor is absolutely insane to me. While he has had some struggles performing in clutch situations and punching the ball into the endzone (he's only thrown 37 TD's in his 29 career starts) during his first 2 seasons as a starter, Taylor is an excellent decisionmaker (he's only throw 6 INT's in each of the past 2 seasons) with impressive accuracy (62.7 CMP % since joining the Bills) and the ability to extend plays with his legs. If Taylor can smoothly adjust to new offensive coordinator Rick Dennison's system and continue to hone his skills as a passer, Pegula and recently-hired GM Brandon Beane will have no reason to not go all-in on Taylor as their franchise QB.

-I never thought I'd write these words, but the Bills are going to miss Robert Woods. While Woods was far from a star, he was a sure-handed, short-yardage option that keep the passing attack afloat whenever oft-injured top wideout Sammy Watkins was out of the lineup. The starting spot vacated by Woods is completely up in the air as of right now and the guys in-line to replace him are unlikely to ease the minds of anyone that's concerned about the team's lack of reliable options in the passing game. Rookie Zay Jones is a raw possession receiver that didn't face a lot of top-flight competition while he was at East Carolina, holdover Walt Powell isn't good for anything more than the occasional freak TD on a deep streak route and the treasure trove of veterans they brought in to "bolster" the depth are pretty much a who's who of anonymous, below average wideouts (Corey "Philly" Brown, Andre Holmes, Rod Streater). Their strong running attack led by LeSean McCoy has helped this offense be relatively respectable over the past couple of years, but they aren't going to become a truly viable offense until someone besides Watkins can step up as a consistent producer in the passing game.

-1st-year head coach Sean McDermott is coming to Buffalo with one of the strongest defensive pedigrees in the league and he's going to need use it to fix this deeply flawed unit. Despite getting some excellent play from unlikely sources (inside linebacker Zach Brown, who left for the Redskins in free agency and outside linebacker Lorenzo Alexander) and registering a healthy number of sacks (39, 8th in the league), this unit still managed to underwhelm in most major stat categories (19th in total defense, 29th in run defense, tied for 16th in points allowed per game, tied for 23rd in takeaways) a year ago. McDermott was excellent at getting young players and journeyman to produce throughout his 6-year tenure as the Panthers defensive coordinator and if he can get guys like Shaq Lawson, Reggie Ragland and Jordan Poyer to perform at even a relatively high level, this defense could end up being sneaky good.

-While pretty much inevitable, the departure of longtime top corner Stephon Gilmore is going to sting. Even with his overly-aggressive, takeaway-driven playing style leading to some huge plays for opposing offenses, he had the coverage ability to shut down top-level receivers on any given Sunday that only a dozen or so corners in the league have. However, the gloom over Gilmore leaving for the greener pastures of Foxboro, Massachusetts could quickly subside if the team's new young corner tandem of Ronald Darby and Tre'Davious White ends up delivering on their abundance of raw potential.  White was arguably the most gifted man-cover corner in this year's draft and despite a rough sophomore season in 2016 where he showed very little of the on-ball dominance he flashed throughout his excellent rookie campaign, Darby has the physicality/fluid footwork/ball skill combo to morph into a legit top corner in the NFL. The results might not come right away, but the Darby/White corner pairing could turn into something really special.

Bottom Line:
 The Bills don't appear to have the talent or depth on either side of the ball to end their league-high 17-year playoff drought this season.

Miami Dolphins
2016 Record: 10-6 (2nd in AFC East)
Head Coach: Adam Gase (2nd season)
Notable Additions: DE William Hayes, TE Julius Thomas, OLB Lawrence Timmons
 Notable Departures: T Branden Albert, TE Jordan Cameron (retired), ILB Jelani Jenkins

-While it's good to see the Dolphins not continue their bad habit of insane free-agent spending, I don't think they did a great job of addressing their needs this offseason. Adding a pair of aging veterans in defensive end William Hayes and outside linebacker Lawrence Timmons to their already fossil-filled front 7, a journeyman guard in Ted Larsen and swamping out one below average tight end in Jordan Cameron for another one in Julius Thomas aren't exactly the type of moves that make you a serious contender. Their draft picks were similarly uninspiring as they took a number of players(defensive end Charles Harris, outside linebacker Raekwon McMillan, cornerback Cordrea Tankersly) that are unlikely to make an immediate impact. This is a squad that was very fortunate to make the playoffs last year and with the lack of attention paid to addressing their inconsistent secondary, shaky offensive line and horrible run D, I wouldn't be surprised to see a steep dropoff in play this season.

-Despite his outstanding sophomore campaign, I'm very concerned about Jay Ajayi's ability to be continuously successful as a 3-down back in this league. His pummeling rushing style and history of knee ailments makes him a massive injury liability, a lot of the success he had in 2016 (776 of his 1,272 yards) came against bottom-10 run defenses and despite their improvements, the Dolphins O-line still can't be relied to run block on a consistent basis. Ajayi has absolutely proven enough to be trusted as the Dolphins starter, I just don't know if he has the durability or tackle-shedding ability to be a legit top-tier running back in the league.

- DeVante Parker really needs to step his game up this season. While he definitely showed some a bit of progress last season (56 REC, 744 YDS and 4 TD's, up from 26 REC, 494 YDS and 3 TD's in his rookie year in 2015) and has gotten plenty of opportunities to produce as the Dolphins lone big-body outside receiver, the former 1st-round pick's first 2 years in the league have largely been defined by mediocrity and invisibility in key situations. If Parker can build on the decent finish he had to the 2016 season and become the lethal redzone threat he was touted to be when he came out of Louisville, the Dolphins receiving corps-currently led by possession receiver extraordinaire/YAC master Jarvis Landry and speedster Kenny Stills-could transform into one of the most dangerous groups in the league.

-The biggest hope the Dolphins have of building on their 10-6 2016 campaign comes in the form of quarterback Ryan Tannehill progressing in his 2nd year in Adam Gase's offense. Gase's quarterback whisper status is notorious around the league and Tannehill is arguably the most well-rounded signalcaller he's gotten to work with outside of Peyton Manning. Tannehill has been on the cusp of breaking out for the past few years and if Gase's renowned tutelage takes, he could finally achieve the NFL superstardom that's alluded him since he entered the league in 2012.


Bottom Line:
 With a much more difficult schedule and pretty much the same roster as they had a year ago, I have a hard time envisioning the Dolphins returning to the playoffs in 2017.

New England Patriots
2016 Record: 14-2 (1st in AFC East)
Head Coach: Bill Belichick (18th season)
Notable Additions: WR Brandin Cooks, CB Stephon Gilmore, TE Dwayne Allen
Notable Departures: TE Martellus Bennett, RB LeGarette Blount, CB Logan Ryan

-The talent gap between the Patriots and the rest of the league is so huge that the annual "19-0" talk that the Boston media and legions of obnoxious fans pedal to fill dead air in July doesn't seem completely insane this year. Even if you disregard their absurd free agent haul, there isn't a team in the league that will be able to touch them come playoff time and even with all of the up-and-downs that occur during the season, they could very well survive all of their tough-ish road opponents (Saints, Buccaneers, Raiders, Broncos). While I'd be very surprised if they actually pulled off an undefeated season, Brady and Belichick are going to straight-up coast to their 6th championship.

-While the narrative has been beaten to death since they completed the trade with the Saints for rising star wide receiver Brandin Cooks on March 10th, I'd be remiss to not mention the plethora of notable offseason acquisitions the Patriots made. Belichick used his abundance of cap space to add to the team's embarrassment of riches by bringing in the likes of Cooks, cornerback Stephon Gilmore, tight end Dwayne Allen, running back Mike Gillislee and defensive end Lawrence Guy. These moves give the Patriots even more depth than they had during last year's Super Bowl run, which is truly horrifying to think about.

-As talented as they are, I'm not convinced that Cooks and Gilmore are going to end up having the monumental impact that pretty much every other football fan on the planet believes they're going to have. Cooks is a deep-threat specialist who can't break tackles that completely clashes with the Patriots short-to-indeterminate passing philosophy while Gilmore is an Asante Samuel-esque gambler in coverage that is coming off one of the worst years of his career. Be sure to check back in January when both of them are All-Pros and I once again look like a complete dingus for doubting a couple of Belichick's personnel moves. 

-After leaning on a power running attack over the past half-decade, Belichick decided to revamp his rushing attack to fit the league's current, speed-driven mentality in free agency. Projected starter Gillislee is the type of dual-threat burner that the Pats usually use as a secondary option, except bigger (5"11, 218 lbs) and with a much stronger nose for the endzone (he scored 9 total TD's with the Bills last season) while former Bengal Rex Burkhead brings yet another gifted pass-catcher into this backfield. Throwing Gillislee and Burkhead into the mix with Dion Lewis and Super Bowl 51 hero James White easily gives the Patriots one of the strongest RB committees they've had during the Belichick-era.

-There really isn't much else to say about this team because the Patriots are so good, so I'll end this write-up by dropping a really unpopular take: I firmly believe that Tom Brady is going to retire after this season. The whole "I'm going to play until I'm 85 because I'm in such great shape thanks to my avocado, hay and magic concussion water diet" shtick is a load of bullshit and when he gets his 6th ring in February, he'll have more than anybody else to every play the game (he's currently tied with former Cowboys/49ers defensive end Charles Haley), rendering his quest to be the most successful player in the history of the NFL complete. I also believe that Belichick's refusal to trade backup Jimmy Garoppolo, whose contract is up after this season, to the Browns for at least 2 first round picks on draft night further backs up this narrative. The national nightmare of the Patriots being in contention for a Super Bowl every fucking season appears to be on the verge of being over and I couldn't possibly be happier about it.

Bottom Line:
Barring some kind of horrific injury plague that takes out at least half of the roster, the Patriots are going to put together their most effortless-looking championship run to-date in 2017. 

New York Jets
2016 Record: 5-11 (4th in AFC East)
Head Coach: Todd Bowles (3rd season)
Notable Additions: CB Morris Claiborne, T Kelvin Beachum, QB Josh McCown
Notable Departures: WR Eric Decker, WR Brandon Marshall, QB Ryan Fitzpatrick

-Don't look now, but the Jets have finally accepted that the "throw money at any semi-prolific free agent that walks through the door" strategy they've employed for much of the past decade wasn't yielding consistent results on the field. The Jets spent the offseason cutting ties with pretty much every aging veteran (wide receivers Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker, cornerback Darrelle Revis, inside linebacker David Harris, quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick) they had on their books instead of breaking out their checkbook to ink a 32-year old future Hall-of-Famer that can barely walk onto the field every Sunday to a 5-year/$85 mil deal. This massive roster reset is going to lead to the Jets punting the next few seasons, but it was a necessary move for a franchise that had shoot itself in the foot by handing out a litany of bad contracts over the past several years. 


- Their quarterback situation is probably the ugliest I've ever seen in all my years of following football. The Jets have the pleasure of deciding whether Bryce Petty, who threw 3 TD's and 7 INT's in 4 starts last season, oft-injured 38-year old journeyman Josh McCown or 2016 2nd-rounder Christian Hackenberg, who isn't currently equipped to start in the Arena League game let alone the NFL, is going to lead them to the promised land of a 3-win season. McCown's plethora of starting experience and calm demeanor make him the favorite to line up center for this young squad that's in desperate need of strong veteran leadership, but the powers that be could very well decide to throw Petty or Hackenberg out there to ensure they get the number 1 pick in the 2018 Draft and land the potential franchise-altering signal-caller they desperately need. I'm sure that Jets fans are waiting with bated breath to see who wins the lowest-stakes QB competition in the history of professional football.

-The lack of talent at quarterback makes this the perfect situation to heavily showcase dual-threat Bilal Powell out of the backfield. The long-overlooked secret weapon of the Jets offense (he averaged 5.5 yards per carry and picked up 58 receptions last season) saw his role increase exponentially as the 2016 season went on and should continue to get more volume while the team goes through this transitional period at quarterback. Powell's versatility and relative lack of wear for a 28-year old running back should allow to be a bright spot on this mostly unsettled offense.

-It's going to very interesting to see if this previously dominant defensive line can return to form in 2017. Everybody besides 2015 1st-round pick Leonard Williams was embarrassingly ineffective in 2016 and unlike every other spot on defense, the same group of schmucks(Williams, Muhammad Wilkerson, Steve McClendon, Sheldon Richardson) will be starting upfront this season. Their ability to bounce back is going to come down the work ethic of Wilkerson and Richardson. Both of these former top-end talents loafed their way through last year's trainwreck of a season and with the Jets pulling the trigger on a rebuild, there's no guarantee they're going to buy back into the program. This front has the ability to disrupt the hell out of the line of scrimmage if everyone is playing up to their potential, which in turn would help their revamped secondary led by newly-signed cornerback Morris Claiborne and rookie safeties Jamal Adams and Marcus Maye adjust to the scheme, and potentially pick up a couple of additional wins for this ragtag squad.

 -Head coach/martyr Todd Bowles is almost certainly going to go down as the fall guy for the Jets inevitable failure this season, which is complete and utter garbage. The current build of the roster puts Bowles in the position of having a guaranteed losing season in 2017, regardless of how well he handles game-planning and player management on a week-to-week basis. I believe that Bowles deserves a shot to oversee this lengthy rebuilding process, I just doubt that owner Woody Johnson is going to exercise the patience that's required to allow him to try and build something. 

Bottom Line:
With a lack of viable talent at just about every position on both sides of the ball, 2017 is going to be painful even by the Jets incredibly low standards.

Projected Standings:
1.New England Patriots (14-2)
2.Miami Dolphins (8-8)
3.Buffalo Bills (6-10)
4.New York Jets (2-14)

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