Showing posts with label NFL preview. Show all posts
Showing posts with label NFL preview. Show all posts

Wednesday, August 9, 2017

2017 NFL Preview: AFC South

Houston Texans
2016 Record: 9-7 (1st in AFC South)
Head Coach: Bill O'Brien (4th season)
Notable Additions: T Breno Giacomini, ILB Sio Moore, CB Marcus Roberson
Notable Departures: QB Brock Osweiler, CB A.J. Bouye, S Quentin Demps

-Rick Smith was able to undo the biggest mistake of his 11-year tenure as the Texans GM by somehow finding a team that was willing to take on Brock Osweiler's ridiculous contract. In a twist that shouldn't really surprise anyone, the brave squad that was willing to accept a trade offer involving the grossly overpaid signalcaller was the Browns. The sabermetric-obsessed Browns gleefully agreed to dish out $19 million to Osweiler for the 2017 season, simply so they could add another 2nd round selection to their overflowing aresenal of future draft picks. It's one of the most jaw-dropping yet subtly ingenious transactions I've ever seen in the NFL and I doubt that the Texans have ever been happier to trade a draft pick in their brief existence as a franchise.

-With Osweiler out of the equation, the Texans appear to be set to (temporarily) turn over the reigns to Tom Savage. While he has yet to throw a touchdown as a pro, the 27-year old still managed to serviceable in the 3 games he appeared (461 YDS, 63.0 CMP% 0 INT's) in last season before going down with a concussion in Week 17. This defense is good enough to carry the Texans to another title in the sorry-ass AFC South, so as long as Savage can master the art of the dump-off pass and not turn the ball over at an Osweiler or Blake Bortles-esque level before they let him walk in free agency to make way for this year's 1st-round draft pick DeShaun Watson, they'll be fine.


-Savage and head coach/offensive coordinator Bill O'Brien got handed a big bag of shit when 2nd-year wideout Will Fuller went down with a broken collarbone during a training camp practice last week. Fuller may fallen off like crazy after a solid start to his rookie campaign a year ago, but his top-end speed at least gives O'Brien a constant splash-play threat to place next to firmly-entrenched top wideout DeAndre Hopkins. Now the team is left scrambling to find a starter from a trash heap of unattractive options. Converted college quarterback Braxton Miller is still far too raw to be trusted with a prominent role in the passing attack, Jaelen Strong has failed to make any plays that weren't fluke hail marys against the Colts, Devin Street is coming off a season where he hauled in a whopping 1 pass and Dres Anderson was an early cut by the Bears, whose receiver room currently includes such studs as Markus Wheaton, Reuben Randle and the rhythmic particles of dust that used to be Victor Cruz. If all hell breaks loose and Hopkins goes down sometime before Fuller returns, the Texans will be a Jets-level of fucked at the receiver position.

-2016 proved that the Texans defense doesn't need J.J Watt to succeed. As Watt spent the final 14 games on the sideline, his teammates managed to post very good numbers across the board (1st in yards allowed, 2nd in pass defense, 11th in run defense) and finish as the 11th ranked scoring defense in the league. With the 3-time Defensive Player of the Year reportedly returning at 100% after undergoing back surgery last September (his 2nd in a 2-month period), a series of interesting questions arise about what effect his presence will have on the functionally of this group. Will Watt's return stunt the growth of rising young stars Jadeveon Clowney and Whitney Mercilius? Is Watt comfortable letting other players emerge as vocal leaders or will he double-down on his attention-whore persona and ensure the spotlight is only on him? And most importantly, will the 28-year old still be able to play his bruising style of football after undergoing multiple major injuries in the past 2 seasons? In an ideal scenario, Watt's physicality won't drop off in the slightest and his disruptive presence upfront will make this talent-loaded unit even better than they were a season ago. At worst, he won't be the player he once was or his return will screw up this group's dynamic and force a surprise regression to happen. Logic would point to the former being the case, but Watt's potential physical decline and domineering presence on-and-off-the field could have a negative effect on the togetherness this group played with in his absence.

-The Texans currently have the rare luxury of letting notable players leave in free agency without suffering any serious loss of talent. Their excellent depth throughout the defense allowed them to let cornerback A.J. Bouye, safety Quentin Demps and outside linebacker John Simon walk this offseason without even batting an eye. On the flip side, their lack of new additions is also kind of worrisome. The biggest potential impact veteran they brought in this offseason was ex-Jets right tackle Breno Giacomini, who is currently locked in a position battle with incumbent starter Chris Clark. This is a team that struggled to go 9-7 in 2016 and unless some of their draft picks make a monumental impact right away (I'm looking at you Zach Cunningham and D'Onta Foreman), they're unlikely to be much better this season. 

Bottom Line:
The Texans once again have enough defensive talent to win their division yet not enough offensive firepower to contend with the AFC's best teams.

Indianapolis Colts
2016 Record: 8-8 (3rd in AFC South)
Head Coach: Chuck Pagano (6th season)
Notable Additions: DT Jonathan Hankins, OLB Jabbal Sheard, OLB John Simon
Notable Departures: P Pat McAfee (retired), S Mike Adams, TE Dwayne Allen

-After 5 years of poor drafting and misguided free agent signings, Jim Irsay pulled the plug on much-maligned general manager Ryan Grigson in mid-January. This move was long overdue, but at least Irsay finally rid this organization of the man that stunted any chance the team had of growing after they drafted young stars Andrew Luck and T.Y. Hilton in 2012. Grigson was replaced by former Chiefs front office assistant Chris Ballard, who went onto to put together a pretty impressive haul in his inaugural season as the Colts front office shot caller. Ballard addressed the team's hole-filled defense with a plethora of affordable, potential impact free agent signings (defensive tackle Jonathan Hankins, outside linebackers Jabbal Sheard and John Simon, inside linebacker Sean Spence) and brought in a draft class that is loaded with numerous high-upside prospects (safety Malik Hooker, cornerback Quincy Wilson, edge rusher Tarral Basham, running back Marlon Mack). While there's clearly no way to tell if Ballard's moves will help elevate the Colts from their 2-year mediocrity slump right now, he's already managed put more effort into trying to address the team's needs than Grigson did during his entire tenure.


-For a team that's looking to break out of a funk, the news that broke last Tuesday about Andrew Luck potentially missing the first 6 games of the season as he recovers from offseason surgery on his throwing shoulder was devastating. Luck's low-key excellent 2016 (63.5 CMP %, 4,240 YDS, 31 TD, 13 INT in 15 games) was the only reason the team cracked .500 and without him on the field, they would likely crumble into complete disarray. Current backup Scott Tolzien boasts a 0-2-1 career record as a starter and has thrown multiple interceptions in all 3 of those games. I'm not even a Colts fan and reading that stat still made me want to projectile vomit all over my keyboard. If a situation arises where Tolzien has to step in for any substantial length of time, this squad's hopes of returning to the playoffs for the 1st time since 2014 are pretty much dead and buried.

- 2017 is a crucial year for the development of this offensive line. For the 1st time in a long time, there's actually reason for optimism when you look at the Colts o-line group. Center Ryan Kelly had a pretty decent rookie year in 2016, Jack Mewhort has played well whenever he's been at his natural position of guard and left tackle Anthony Castonzo is a reliable performer that's currently in the middle of his prime. However, that's not to say there isn't still some reason for concern with this group. Young guns Joe Haeg and Le'Raven Clark didn't display the same level of polish or consistency as Kelly did in his rookie year and have the unfortunate distinction of being raw, inexperienced players playing on the same side of the line. There may be more talent present than there was in the Mike McGlynn/Samson Satele/Gosder Cherlius days, but unless they can establish some consistency and stability across the entire group, this revamped o-line will be deemed yet another failure for the long-suffering Colts.

Bottom Line:
Without the guarantee of a healthy Luck for the entire season, the Colts are more than likely going to miss the playoffs for the 4th straight season. 

Jacksonville Jaguars
2016 Record: 3-13 (4th in AFC South)
Head Coach: Doug Marrone (1st season)
Notable Additions: DT Calias Campbell, CB A.J. Bouye, S Barry Church
Notable Departures: S Jonathan Cyprien, CB Prince Amukamara, TE Julius Thomas

-Even with the team's decision to exercise his 5th-year option and keep him under team control through the 2018 season, 2017 is going to be a make-or-break year for Blake Bortles in Jacksonville. The former top-5 pick undid any of the goodwill he earned during his perceived breakout 2015 campaign with an underwhelming 2016 that saw his TD total dip from 35 to 23 and already-maligned throwing mechanics fit a new level of sloppiness (sup Tebow-esque sidearm). Even as a person who has unreasonable amount of faith in Bortles, it's hard for me to envision a scenario where he magically fixes his ailments in a single offseason. New head coach Doug Marrone retained Nathaniel Hackett, whose has worked with Bortles since the 2015 season, as offensive coordinator, new front office minion Tom Coughlin reportedly doesn't envision him as the team's long-term starter and  decisionmaking/delivery deficiencies are damn near impossible for a quarterback to correct in a such a short period of time. A rapid level of development that he has yet to display during his professional career paired with a tsunami of good fortune (aka a bunch of players overachieve and the teams ends up winning 8-10 games) is the only way Bortles will be able to keep his job past this season.

-To be honest, the best bet of the Jags offense getting back on track doesn't even lie on their embattled QB's shoulders. That's right, the most viable potential savior of this offense is rookie running back Leonard Fournette. Part of the reason Bortles and co. struggled so mightily last season was due to their inability to run the ball. Chris Ivory and T.J. Yeldon couldn't generate a god damn thing whenever they touched the ball (they combined for 904 yards on 247 carries), which forced their erratic, gunslinging quarterback to throw more than he should've. While there's questions about his durability and the talent level of the guys upfront that are blocking for him, Fournette has the potential to be the type of 3-down back you can run your offense through. At 6'1, 228 lbs, he has the devastating speed, size and power combo that every NFL team dreams of having in their backfield. The presence of a reliable workhorse back would bring a much-needed sense of balance to this group and take some of the pressure off of Bortles to be the sole creator of offense.

-The plus side of the Jags non-stop losing is the plethora of available cap space they have to go out and sign pretty much any free agent they want. Their 2017 haul might have been their most impressive to-date. Defensive tackle/end Calias Campbell is a versatile, well-rounded monster upfront that also happens to be one of the best locker room leaders in the league, cornerback A.J Bouye is a burgeoning menace in the slot and safety Barry Church is a run-stuffing specialist coming off a career-best year with the Cowboys. Putting more high-caliber veteran along talents alongside outside linebacker Telvin Smith, promising young corner Jalen Ramsey and last year's big-ticket signing defensive tackle Malik Jackson should help this mostly young unit make another substantial leap forward in 2017.

-There's nothing about this Branden Albert situation that isn't hilarious. The Jags acquired the 32-year old Pro Bowler from the Dolphins for pretty much nothing (tight end Julius Thomas and a 6th-round draft pick) in late February with the hopes that he would be a viable short-term solution to the left tackle woes that have plagued them since they dealt Eugene Monroe 4 games into the 2013 season. Then Albert gets a few days into training camp and decides he'd rather sit on his coach than try to protect Blake Bortles' blindside. The story appeared to be over until the news broke on Monday night that Albert told the Jags he wanted to return to the team and the brass said no thanks. To sum it all up, the Jags are now being forced to throw unpolished rookie Cam Robinson into the fire at left tackle right away and Albert is going to have to try and make his NFL "comeback" somewhere else. Professional sports never fail to be the greatest soap operas on Earth.

Bottom Line:
Even with the additions of more solid veteran talent, the Jaguars have too many deficiencies and uncertainties (particularly on offense) to make a significant jump in the standings this season.      

Tennessee Titans
2016 Record: 9-7 (2nd in AFC South)
Head Coach: Mike Mularkey (2nd season)
Notable Additions: CB Logan Ryan, S Jonathan Cyprien, WR Eric Decker
 Notable Departures: CB Jason McCourty, WR Kendall Wright, G Chance Warmack

-After a surprise 9-7 finish last season, everybody from Wichita to Omaha is aboard the Titans hype train heading into 2017. I'm one of the few people that refuses to board this densely-packed locomotive. This team never impressed me at any point of last season and nothing that's occurred in the 7 months since they last took the field gotten me to waver from that position. I think Marcus Mariota is more of an anonymous game-manager than a legit franchise quarterback, they're relying on a currently-injured rookie (Corey Davis) and an inconsistent 30-year old coming off of a major shoulder injury (Eric Decker) to improve their wonky receiving corps, their defense ,outside of a few nice pieces on the front 7 (Derrick Morgan, Jurrell Casey, Wesley Woodyard) is an unreliable, injury-prone mess (more on that later) and even though he's coming off a nice season (1,287 YDS, 9 TD) and has an excellent offensive line blocking for him, workhorse running back DeMarco Murray is still one of the biggest injury flight risks in the league (he already pulled him hamstring in training camp. I've got a strong feeling that this 2017 team will expose the Titans as a below-average squad primarily driven by fugazi talent that can't be relied to deliver sustained success in the NFL.

-The Achilles' heel of the 2016 Titans (and what their fanbase believes was the only reason they didn't win the division) was their secondary. Their 30th-ranked pass defense doesn't do justice to how much they burnt throughout last season. Naturally, general manager Jon Robinson made trying to upgrade this lackluster his primary focus this season. He went out and signed ex-Patriot corner Logan Ryan and former Jags Jonathan Cyprien on the 2nd day of free agency then proceeded to use 1 of the team's 2 1st round draft picks to select USC corner Adoree' Jackson. The problem with these moves is that every single one of them is a massive dice roll. Ryan was an erratic presence throughout his tenure in New England and has yet to prove he can guard top WR's on a weekly basis, Cyprien was a garbageman until last season and Jackson is a super athletic gambler that lives and dies by the big play. Robinson was right to make a ton of moves in the secondary, but I'm skeptical that the guys he brought in are going to be able to make the type of impact he desperately needs them to make in order to quickly sure up their horrific pass defense.

-Another part of the reason why I'm so down on the Titans is because of this coaching staff. A surprisingly strong season from DeMarco Murray and rare 16-game campaign for Brian Orakpo covered up a lot of the issues the schematic masterminds behind this operation bring to the table, but I wouldn't bank on it happening again. Mike Mularkey is a so-so offensive mind (I still haven't figured out what "exotic smashmouth" means) that has mustered 2 winning seasons and 0 playoff appearances in 5 seasons as an NFL head coach, Dick LeBeau is a stubborn fossil that won't let go of his precious zone-driven scheme that hasn't been consistently effective in at least 20 years and with just 1 year as an offensive coordinator, there's no way to tell if Terry Robiskie is the real deal or not (spoiler alert: I don't think he is). While the play of Mariota and the impact of (or lack thereof) their big-ticket free agent signing are currently commanding the narratives out of Nashville, the abilities of these 3 men should ultimately determine if the Titans deserve to be taken seriously as a playoff contender or simply benefited from a whole lot of fluky-ass strong performances in 2016.    

Bottom Line:
The pride of Smashville appear set to fall back to Earth after overachieving a season ago. 
 
Projected Standings
1.Houston Texans (9-7)
2.Indianapolis Colts (7-9)
3.Tennessee Titans (6-10) 
4.Jacksonville Jaguars (5-11)

Thursday, July 27, 2017

2017 NFL Preview: AFC East

Buffalo Bills
2016 Record: 7-9 (3rd in AFC East)
Head Coach: Sean McDermott (1st season)
Notable Additions: K Steven Hauschka, OLB Gerald Hodges, S Micah Hyde
Notable Departures: CB Stephon Gilmore, ILB Zach Brown, WR Robert Woods

-After heavy speculation about owner Terry Pegula wanting to select his successor in this year's draft, the Bills committed to Tyrod Taylor as their starting quarterback for at least the 2017 season by re-working the complex, fugazi "contract extension" he signed before the 2016 season. The fact that the team was seriously considering severing ties with Taylor is absolutely insane to me. While he has had some struggles performing in clutch situations and punching the ball into the endzone (he's only thrown 37 TD's in his 29 career starts) during his first 2 seasons as a starter, Taylor is an excellent decisionmaker (he's only throw 6 INT's in each of the past 2 seasons) with impressive accuracy (62.7 CMP % since joining the Bills) and the ability to extend plays with his legs. If Taylor can smoothly adjust to new offensive coordinator Rick Dennison's system and continue to hone his skills as a passer, Pegula and recently-hired GM Brandon Beane will have no reason to not go all-in on Taylor as their franchise QB.

-I never thought I'd write these words, but the Bills are going to miss Robert Woods. While Woods was far from a star, he was a sure-handed, short-yardage option that keep the passing attack afloat whenever oft-injured top wideout Sammy Watkins was out of the lineup. The starting spot vacated by Woods is completely up in the air as of right now and the guys in-line to replace him are unlikely to ease the minds of anyone that's concerned about the team's lack of reliable options in the passing game. Rookie Zay Jones is a raw possession receiver that didn't face a lot of top-flight competition while he was at East Carolina, holdover Walt Powell isn't good for anything more than the occasional freak TD on a deep streak route and the treasure trove of veterans they brought in to "bolster" the depth are pretty much a who's who of anonymous, below average wideouts (Corey "Philly" Brown, Andre Holmes, Rod Streater). Their strong running attack led by LeSean McCoy has helped this offense be relatively respectable over the past couple of years, but they aren't going to become a truly viable offense until someone besides Watkins can step up as a consistent producer in the passing game.

-1st-year head coach Sean McDermott is coming to Buffalo with one of the strongest defensive pedigrees in the league and he's going to need use it to fix this deeply flawed unit. Despite getting some excellent play from unlikely sources (inside linebacker Zach Brown, who left for the Redskins in free agency and outside linebacker Lorenzo Alexander) and registering a healthy number of sacks (39, 8th in the league), this unit still managed to underwhelm in most major stat categories (19th in total defense, 29th in run defense, tied for 16th in points allowed per game, tied for 23rd in takeaways) a year ago. McDermott was excellent at getting young players and journeyman to produce throughout his 6-year tenure as the Panthers defensive coordinator and if he can get guys like Shaq Lawson, Reggie Ragland and Jordan Poyer to perform at even a relatively high level, this defense could end up being sneaky good.

-While pretty much inevitable, the departure of longtime top corner Stephon Gilmore is going to sting. Even with his overly-aggressive, takeaway-driven playing style leading to some huge plays for opposing offenses, he had the coverage ability to shut down top-level receivers on any given Sunday that only a dozen or so corners in the league have. However, the gloom over Gilmore leaving for the greener pastures of Foxboro, Massachusetts could quickly subside if the team's new young corner tandem of Ronald Darby and Tre'Davious White ends up delivering on their abundance of raw potential.  White was arguably the most gifted man-cover corner in this year's draft and despite a rough sophomore season in 2016 where he showed very little of the on-ball dominance he flashed throughout his excellent rookie campaign, Darby has the physicality/fluid footwork/ball skill combo to morph into a legit top corner in the NFL. The results might not come right away, but the Darby/White corner pairing could turn into something really special.

Bottom Line:
 The Bills don't appear to have the talent or depth on either side of the ball to end their league-high 17-year playoff drought this season.

Miami Dolphins
2016 Record: 10-6 (2nd in AFC East)
Head Coach: Adam Gase (2nd season)
Notable Additions: DE William Hayes, TE Julius Thomas, OLB Lawrence Timmons
 Notable Departures: T Branden Albert, TE Jordan Cameron (retired), ILB Jelani Jenkins

-While it's good to see the Dolphins not continue their bad habit of insane free-agent spending, I don't think they did a great job of addressing their needs this offseason. Adding a pair of aging veterans in defensive end William Hayes and outside linebacker Lawrence Timmons to their already fossil-filled front 7, a journeyman guard in Ted Larsen and swamping out one below average tight end in Jordan Cameron for another one in Julius Thomas aren't exactly the type of moves that make you a serious contender. Their draft picks were similarly uninspiring as they took a number of players(defensive end Charles Harris, outside linebacker Raekwon McMillan, cornerback Cordrea Tankersly) that are unlikely to make an immediate impact. This is a squad that was very fortunate to make the playoffs last year and with the lack of attention paid to addressing their inconsistent secondary, shaky offensive line and horrible run D, I wouldn't be surprised to see a steep dropoff in play this season.

-Despite his outstanding sophomore campaign, I'm very concerned about Jay Ajayi's ability to be continuously successful as a 3-down back in this league. His pummeling rushing style and history of knee ailments makes him a massive injury liability, a lot of the success he had in 2016 (776 of his 1,272 yards) came against bottom-10 run defenses and despite their improvements, the Dolphins O-line still can't be relied to run block on a consistent basis. Ajayi has absolutely proven enough to be trusted as the Dolphins starter, I just don't know if he has the durability or tackle-shedding ability to be a legit top-tier running back in the league.

- DeVante Parker really needs to step his game up this season. While he definitely showed some a bit of progress last season (56 REC, 744 YDS and 4 TD's, up from 26 REC, 494 YDS and 3 TD's in his rookie year in 2015) and has gotten plenty of opportunities to produce as the Dolphins lone big-body outside receiver, the former 1st-round pick's first 2 years in the league have largely been defined by mediocrity and invisibility in key situations. If Parker can build on the decent finish he had to the 2016 season and become the lethal redzone threat he was touted to be when he came out of Louisville, the Dolphins receiving corps-currently led by possession receiver extraordinaire/YAC master Jarvis Landry and speedster Kenny Stills-could transform into one of the most dangerous groups in the league.

-The biggest hope the Dolphins have of building on their 10-6 2016 campaign comes in the form of quarterback Ryan Tannehill progressing in his 2nd year in Adam Gase's offense. Gase's quarterback whisper status is notorious around the league and Tannehill is arguably the most well-rounded signalcaller he's gotten to work with outside of Peyton Manning. Tannehill has been on the cusp of breaking out for the past few years and if Gase's renowned tutelage takes, he could finally achieve the NFL superstardom that's alluded him since he entered the league in 2012.


Bottom Line:
 With a much more difficult schedule and pretty much the same roster as they had a year ago, I have a hard time envisioning the Dolphins returning to the playoffs in 2017.

New England Patriots
2016 Record: 14-2 (1st in AFC East)
Head Coach: Bill Belichick (18th season)
Notable Additions: WR Brandin Cooks, CB Stephon Gilmore, TE Dwayne Allen
Notable Departures: TE Martellus Bennett, RB LeGarette Blount, CB Logan Ryan

-The talent gap between the Patriots and the rest of the league is so huge that the annual "19-0" talk that the Boston media and legions of obnoxious fans pedal to fill dead air in July doesn't seem completely insane this year. Even if you disregard their absurd free agent haul, there isn't a team in the league that will be able to touch them come playoff time and even with all of the up-and-downs that occur during the season, they could very well survive all of their tough-ish road opponents (Saints, Buccaneers, Raiders, Broncos). While I'd be very surprised if they actually pulled off an undefeated season, Brady and Belichick are going to straight-up coast to their 6th championship.

-While the narrative has been beaten to death since they completed the trade with the Saints for rising star wide receiver Brandin Cooks on March 10th, I'd be remiss to not mention the plethora of notable offseason acquisitions the Patriots made. Belichick used his abundance of cap space to add to the team's embarrassment of riches by bringing in the likes of Cooks, cornerback Stephon Gilmore, tight end Dwayne Allen, running back Mike Gillislee and defensive end Lawrence Guy. These moves give the Patriots even more depth than they had during last year's Super Bowl run, which is truly horrifying to think about.

-As talented as they are, I'm not convinced that Cooks and Gilmore are going to end up having the monumental impact that pretty much every other football fan on the planet believes they're going to have. Cooks is a deep-threat specialist who can't break tackles that completely clashes with the Patriots short-to-indeterminate passing philosophy while Gilmore is an Asante Samuel-esque gambler in coverage that is coming off one of the worst years of his career. Be sure to check back in January when both of them are All-Pros and I once again look like a complete dingus for doubting a couple of Belichick's personnel moves. 

-After leaning on a power running attack over the past half-decade, Belichick decided to revamp his rushing attack to fit the league's current, speed-driven mentality in free agency. Projected starter Gillislee is the type of dual-threat burner that the Pats usually use as a secondary option, except bigger (5"11, 218 lbs) and with a much stronger nose for the endzone (he scored 9 total TD's with the Bills last season) while former Bengal Rex Burkhead brings yet another gifted pass-catcher into this backfield. Throwing Gillislee and Burkhead into the mix with Dion Lewis and Super Bowl 51 hero James White easily gives the Patriots one of the strongest RB committees they've had during the Belichick-era.

-There really isn't much else to say about this team because the Patriots are so good, so I'll end this write-up by dropping a really unpopular take: I firmly believe that Tom Brady is going to retire after this season. The whole "I'm going to play until I'm 85 because I'm in such great shape thanks to my avocado, hay and magic concussion water diet" shtick is a load of bullshit and when he gets his 6th ring in February, he'll have more than anybody else to every play the game (he's currently tied with former Cowboys/49ers defensive end Charles Haley), rendering his quest to be the most successful player in the history of the NFL complete. I also believe that Belichick's refusal to trade backup Jimmy Garoppolo, whose contract is up after this season, to the Browns for at least 2 first round picks on draft night further backs up this narrative. The national nightmare of the Patriots being in contention for a Super Bowl every fucking season appears to be on the verge of being over and I couldn't possibly be happier about it.

Bottom Line:
Barring some kind of horrific injury plague that takes out at least half of the roster, the Patriots are going to put together their most effortless-looking championship run to-date in 2017. 

New York Jets
2016 Record: 5-11 (4th in AFC East)
Head Coach: Todd Bowles (3rd season)
Notable Additions: CB Morris Claiborne, T Kelvin Beachum, QB Josh McCown
Notable Departures: WR Eric Decker, WR Brandon Marshall, QB Ryan Fitzpatrick

-Don't look now, but the Jets have finally accepted that the "throw money at any semi-prolific free agent that walks through the door" strategy they've employed for much of the past decade wasn't yielding consistent results on the field. The Jets spent the offseason cutting ties with pretty much every aging veteran (wide receivers Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker, cornerback Darrelle Revis, inside linebacker David Harris, quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick) they had on their books instead of breaking out their checkbook to ink a 32-year old future Hall-of-Famer that can barely walk onto the field every Sunday to a 5-year/$85 mil deal. This massive roster reset is going to lead to the Jets punting the next few seasons, but it was a necessary move for a franchise that had shoot itself in the foot by handing out a litany of bad contracts over the past several years. 


- Their quarterback situation is probably the ugliest I've ever seen in all my years of following football. The Jets have the pleasure of deciding whether Bryce Petty, who threw 3 TD's and 7 INT's in 4 starts last season, oft-injured 38-year old journeyman Josh McCown or 2016 2nd-rounder Christian Hackenberg, who isn't currently equipped to start in the Arena League game let alone the NFL, is going to lead them to the promised land of a 3-win season. McCown's plethora of starting experience and calm demeanor make him the favorite to line up center for this young squad that's in desperate need of strong veteran leadership, but the powers that be could very well decide to throw Petty or Hackenberg out there to ensure they get the number 1 pick in the 2018 Draft and land the potential franchise-altering signal-caller they desperately need. I'm sure that Jets fans are waiting with bated breath to see who wins the lowest-stakes QB competition in the history of professional football.

-The lack of talent at quarterback makes this the perfect situation to heavily showcase dual-threat Bilal Powell out of the backfield. The long-overlooked secret weapon of the Jets offense (he averaged 5.5 yards per carry and picked up 58 receptions last season) saw his role increase exponentially as the 2016 season went on and should continue to get more volume while the team goes through this transitional period at quarterback. Powell's versatility and relative lack of wear for a 28-year old running back should allow to be a bright spot on this mostly unsettled offense.

-It's going to very interesting to see if this previously dominant defensive line can return to form in 2017. Everybody besides 2015 1st-round pick Leonard Williams was embarrassingly ineffective in 2016 and unlike every other spot on defense, the same group of schmucks(Williams, Muhammad Wilkerson, Steve McClendon, Sheldon Richardson) will be starting upfront this season. Their ability to bounce back is going to come down the work ethic of Wilkerson and Richardson. Both of these former top-end talents loafed their way through last year's trainwreck of a season and with the Jets pulling the trigger on a rebuild, there's no guarantee they're going to buy back into the program. This front has the ability to disrupt the hell out of the line of scrimmage if everyone is playing up to their potential, which in turn would help their revamped secondary led by newly-signed cornerback Morris Claiborne and rookie safeties Jamal Adams and Marcus Maye adjust to the scheme, and potentially pick up a couple of additional wins for this ragtag squad.

 -Head coach/martyr Todd Bowles is almost certainly going to go down as the fall guy for the Jets inevitable failure this season, which is complete and utter garbage. The current build of the roster puts Bowles in the position of having a guaranteed losing season in 2017, regardless of how well he handles game-planning and player management on a week-to-week basis. I believe that Bowles deserves a shot to oversee this lengthy rebuilding process, I just doubt that owner Woody Johnson is going to exercise the patience that's required to allow him to try and build something. 

Bottom Line:
With a lack of viable talent at just about every position on both sides of the ball, 2017 is going to be painful even by the Jets incredibly low standards.

Projected Standings:
1.New England Patriots (14-2)
2.Miami Dolphins (8-8)
3.Buffalo Bills (6-10)
4.New York Jets (2-14)

Thursday, August 11, 2016

2016 NFL Preview: NFC West

Arizona Cardinals
2015 Record: 12-4 (1st in NFC West)
Head Coach: Bruce Arians (4th season)
Notable Additions: DE/OLB Chandler Jones, G Evan Mathis, S Tyvon Branch
Notable Departures: S Rashad Johnson, OLB Dwight Freeney, CB Jeraud Powers

Offense:
The year-to-year progress this unit has made since Bruce Arians arrived in 2013 culminated in finishing  with the number 1 scoring offense in the league a year ago. Behind resurgent seasons from aging quarterback Carson Palmer and wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald and excellent performances from their trio of highly-lauded young players (wide receivers Michael Floyd and John Brown, running back David Johnson), the Cardinals were a lethal, borderline unstoppable force throughout the season. The scary part is that Floyd, Brown and Johnson aren't even close to reaching their full potential yet, as they enter their 4th, 3rd and 2nd years in the league respectively. Given the flashes of brilliance they've shown to-date and having them play under the tutelage of Arians, 2016 could end up being absolutely massive years for all three of the Cardinals bright young talents.

The Cardinals have a promising young, every-down running back and a loaded receiving corps, what could possibly prevent this team from repeating as the top offense in football? The answer to that question is Palmer. Palmer hit a wall at the tail-end of the year (5 TD, 7 INT, 55.5 CMP % 65.3 QBR in the final 3 games of the season including the playoffs) with a trio of ugly performances against the Seahawks, Packers and Panthers after playing at a borderline MVP-level for most of the 2015 season. His late-season woes last season paired with his checkered injury history (major knee injuries in 2005 and 2014, torn ligaments in elbow on throwing arm in 2008, broken ribs in 2012, a slew of other minor injuries throughout his career) and age (he'll be 37 in December), leads me to believe that his production level is going to take a steep decline in 2016. Tom Brady, Peyton Manning and Brett Favre have proved within the last decade that quarterbacks can age gracefully by putting up ridiculous numbers well into their late 30's, but none of those guys had (or in Brady's case, has) the lengthy injury history or up-and-down track record that Palmer has. He has the benefit of having top-notch talent at the skill positions, a strong offensive line that managed to get even better in the offseason with the addition of hard-nosed veteran guard Evan Mathis and is coming off of a season in which he posted career-best total in passing yards (4,671), touchdowns (35) and QBR (104.6), but despite all of those factors that point to another successful season, I still have a feeling that this could be the year where Father Time starts to finally break Palmer down.

Defense:
Despite their departure of brilliant defensive coordinator Todd Bowles before the season started, the Cardinals continued their steady climb up the NFL defensive hierarchy in 2015. Behind career years from All-Pro cornerback Patrick Peterson and safety Tyrann Mathieu, the Cardinals managed to finish 2nd overall in total takeaways (33), tied for 7th in points allowed per game (19.6) and 5th overall in total defense (321.7 YDS per game).


General manager Steve Kiem managed to address the only pressing need this top-notch defense had by trading for former Patriots defensive end Chandler Jones to try and help bolster a pass-rush that was tied for 20th in the league a year ago with 36 sacks. Jones has had bouts of inconsistency throughout this career and is perhaps a tad bit overrated in NFL circles, but he's a fast, athletic edge-rusher who has proven he can produce in the pro's (he has a pair of double-digit sack seasons in his first 4 seasons in the league) and at just 26 years old, he has the potential to be a fixture on this defense for years to come. Pairing Jones with a high-upside 2nd-year player in Markus Golden on the edge could give the Cardinals one of the most surprisingly lethal pass-rushing tandems in the league this season.

The lone question mark on this unit is the health of star safety Mathieu. The right torn ACL that cut his 2015 season short is the 2nd major knee injury he's suffered in just 3 seasons in the league (he tore his left ACL and LCL in 2014) and despite his youth (he just turned 24 in May), Mathieu's long-term durability has to be at least somewhat of a cause for concern-especially considering that the Cardinals just gave him a 5 year/$62.5 million extension with $40 mil in guaranteed money. The play of their defense went seriously downhill as soon he got injured in late December last season and if he goes down yet again in 2016, the Cardinals place among the NFL's elite defenses could come to a sudden, unexpected demise.

Bottom Line: 
The frail nature and age of Palmer could up derailing the title hopes for one of the most talent-loaded and well-coached teams in the NFL.  

Los Angeles Rams
2015 Record: 7-9 (3rd in NFC West)
Head Coach: Jeff Fisher (5th season)
Notable Additions: DT Dominique Easley, CB Coty Sensabaugh, DT Cam Thomas
Notable Departures: CB Janoris Jenkins, S Rodney McLeod, DE Chris Long 

Offense:
 How did general manager Les Snead and head coach Jeff Fisher respond to finishing with one of the league's worst offenses (32nd in passing offense, 32nd in total offense, 29th in points per game) in the league for a third straight season? By doing absolutely nothing of course! They bizarrely didn't any add new blood to an offensive line has no reliable talent (their league-low 18 sacks allowed in 2015 is deceiving because they rarely throw the ball) and the 2 additions to their league-worst receiving corps (tight end Tyler Higbee and wide receiver Pharaoh Cooper, both of whom were 4th round picks in this year's draft) more than likely won't make a major impact right away, despite the solid upside they both possess. With a receiving corps led by massive bust Tavon Austin and Kenny Britt-the gold standard for below average NFL wide receivers- and an offensive line that can't be trusted, the state of the Rams offense is as bleak as ever.   

The only attempt the Rams made this offseason at changing up their offense isn't even currently set to take the field in Week 1. The Rams gave up basically all of their valuable picks in this year and next year's NFL Draft to move and up draft potential franchise quarterback Jared Goff number 1 overall, only to reportedly bench him in favor of CASE FUCKING KEENUM?!?!?! Goff's confidence must be through the roof right now as he is being forced to hold a clipboard for a guy that's biggest accomplishment in the NFL to-date was breaking league protocol by not leaving the field after clearly suffering a concussion in a game against the Ravens last season. Having a rookie quarterback not start right away isn't a terrible idea, but keeping him on the bench (for now at least) in favor of a below-average veteran that most teams would only throw out in emergency situations makes zero sense for a team trying to escape the bowels of mediocrity.

The lone playmaker and only sliver of hope the Rams have of not being among the league's worst offenses yet again comes in the form of running back Todd Gurley. The reigning Offensive Rookie of the Year was borderline unstoppable for most of his rookie season, putting up 1,106 yards (4.8 yards per carry) in just 13 games. Without the struggle of trying to rehab from a torn ACL and a year of experience under his bet, Gurley is in good shape to be even more lethal in his sophomore campaign. He's going to getting an absurd amount of carries due to their non-existent passing attack and his bruising running style that's reminiscent of Adrian Peterson and Marshawn Lynch usually translates to long-term success in the league. If he can successfully adapt to opposing defenses stacking the box every time he's on the field and remain healthy, a rushing title could very well be in the cards for Gurley in 2016.   

Defense:
The Rams talented defense has inspired a lot of false confidence in this team's overall abilities throughout Fisher's tenure with the team. This will more than likely be the case once again in 2016 as the Rams talented group of core defensive players are mostly still in tact and a lot of people are somehow still drinking the Kool-Aid that the strength of this unit paired with Fisher's experience will be enough to get this team a playoff spot in one of the toughest divisions in a talented-loaded conference.

Fisher and defensive coordinator Gregg "Jango Fett" Williams will face their toughest test to-date as free agency put a huge strain on their talented secondary. Safety Rodney McLeod-who had a breakout season in 2015 and cornerback Janoris Jenkins bolted for the Eagles and Giants respectively and their departure has left a pair of massive holes in the starting lineup. The players currently penciled in to take over the vacant starting spots (cornerback LaMarcus Joyner and safety Cody Davis) are sketchy at best on paper. Joyner has done alright in a supporting role (he started 6 games last season) in his first 2 years in the league, but he has yet to be consistently tested at the professional level while Davis has a whopping 0 starts in 3 NFL seasons. The return of talented young cornerback Trumaine Johnson should help soften the blow of losing two solid veteran starters, but the uncertainty that lies within the rest of the group could unravel a unit that has been a major strength for the Rams over the past few seasons.

Despite the potentially crucial losses in the secondary, their defensive front should be good enough to weather the storm and allow this defense to once again be one of the most imposing units in the league. William Hayes is one of the most quietly productive defensive ends in the league, the addition of ex-New England Patriot defensive tackle Dominique Easley puts yet another promising young player into their deep rotation and rising star defensive tackle Aaron Donald might be the most disruptive and consistently dominant defensive lineman to enter the league since J.J Watt. As long as this defensive line continues to wreak havoc, the Rams D will be a difficult matchup for most opposing offenses.

Bottom Line:
Sorry Jeff Fisher, you're probably fucking going 7-9 (or worse) again.  

San Francisco 49ers
2015 Record: 5-11 (4th in NFC West)
Head Coach: Chip Kelly (1st season)
Notable Additions: T Anthony Davis (reinstated), G Zane Beadles
Notable Departures: G Alex Boone, WR Anquan Boldin, RB Reggie Bush

Offense:
Lord knows nothing will aid a dumpster fire of an organization with a level of internal conflict so high that it makes the Browns look like a beacon of functionality like hiring the man who was nearly-universally hated by his players and single-handily killed the Philadelphia Eagles in just a single year of having complete control of all football operations to be your new coach. There's no possible way this could end in disaster.....
 
As for the actual football, the offensive "wizardry" Chip Kelly was clearly hired for more than likely won't do anything to aid nearly weapon-free offense. The weakness of the 49ers offense can best be summed up by the fact that notorious draft bust Blaine Gabbert, who started in the team's final 8 games a year ago and former goldenboy Colin Kaepernick, who has enjoyed one of the steepest falls of grace in recent football history after leading this team to a Super Bowl appearance in 2013, are currently locked up in a competition for the starting quarterback job. It doesn't matter who ultimately comes out on top in this very sad competition because neither of them are fit to be successful starters in the NFL.

The receiving corps is similarly ugly with streaky, deep-threat Torrey Smith being installed as the de facto top wideout- a position that his limited skill set makes him horribly unqualified for- after Anquan Boldin wasn't re-signed in the offseason and a clusterfuck of ineffective, untested young players in Bruce Ellington, DeAndre Smelter and Quinton Patton currently battling it out for the other starting spot. Even talented running back Carlos Hyde is in a bad spot because of the near certainty that the 49ers are going to be playing from behind in a vast majority of the games(in other words, they'll be in no position to run the ball) they play this season. If Kelly can somehow make this offense productive, he truly is a transcendent football genius with the greatest offensive scheme of all-time and I'll take back all of the negative things I've said about him over the past couple of years.

Defense:

The outlook for the 49ers defense headed into 2016 isn't as gloomy as the offense, but it sure as hell isn't rosy either.  The team is still reeling from the mass retirement exodus (inside linebackers Patrick Willis and Chris Borland, defensive end Justin Smith) and cutting of former first All-Pro outside linebacker Aldon Smith prior to last season and despite having a league-high $47.5 mil in available cap space for 2016, they made no notable veteran additions this offseason. The team did draft a potentially excellent defensive end in DeForest Buckner with the 7th overall pick in the draft and the successful comeback of inside linebacker NaVorro Bowman in 2015 after missing nearly 2 seasons with a torn ACL and MCL gives them an anchor piece they can build around for the next 3 or 4 seasons, but their defense is still locked into a transitional period at this point in time.

The only chance this unit has of exceeding expectations this season is if their key young players can all step up and make major improvements. Safety Eric Reid is the only young player on this roster that can currently be relied to perform on a consistent basis (defensive tackle Ian Williams has too, but he's allegedly out for the year with a torn Achilles), but guys like cornerback Kenneth Acker, outside linebacker Aaron Lynch and defensive end Arik Armstead have shown flashes of serious potential in 2015. Acker finished the year as a respectable slot corner after a rough start, Lynch picked up a solid 6.5 sacks in his first season as a starter and second-year defensive end Armstead was a highly-effective run-stopper in limited reps last season. Learning a new system and with the exception of Lynch, a potentially dramatic uptick in reps makes substantial progress a tall order for this season, but all of these guys have the upside to deify the odds and take their game to the next level in 2016.  

Bottom Line: 
A talent-barren roster and tumultuous off-field environment puts the 49ers in a ROUGH spot for the 2016 season.

Seattle Seahawks
2015 Record: 11-5 (2nd in NFC West)
Head Coach: Pete Carroll (7th season)
Notable Additions: CB Brandon Browner, G Jahri Evans, G/T Ja'Marcus Webb
Notable Departures: RB Marshawn Lynch (retired), OLB Bruce Irvin, T Russell Okung 

Offense:
The Beast Mode-era to an abrupt end when Marshawn Lynch suddenly announced his retirement from the league after 9 seasons on Super Bowl Sunday. Lynch was the tone-setter for the Seahawks offense since he arrived in 2010 and played an integral role in helping transform them from a perennially below-average team to one of the most feared teams in the league. While Lynch's toughness, violent running style and priceless interactions with the media can't be duplicated, the Seahawks seem to found a worthy successor to Beast Mode's throne in second-year back Thomas Rawls. Rawls was excellent in relief of Lynch,who missed 9 games in 2015 with various injuries, before going down with a season-ending ankle injury himself in Week 13 against the Minnesota Vikings. If he can bounce back with no complications or further injury, he should be able to keep the Seahawks rushing attack among the league's best in 2016.


With Lynch out of the equation, this offense now fully belongs to 5th-year quarterback Russell Wilson. In spite of what a fair amount of analysts have seen saying this offseason, I think Wilson will easily be able to handle being the sole leader of the Seahawks offense. Wilson shined last season when Lynch was sidelined, playing the best football of his career when asked to throw more and did more than enough to finally destroy the long-standing myth that he was only successful because of Beast Mode's dominance in the running game. I'll never understand where the doubts about Wilson keep coming from given his track record of consistent success since entering the league in 2012, but I would be shocked if he didn't once again silence his critics in spectacular fashion this season.

Given the success they had throwing the ball down the stretch last season, I expect the Seahawks to keep up their increased passing volume into this season. Wilson's accuracy and decisionmaking continues to improve with each season he's been in the league and their receiving corps led by Doug Baldwin and Tyler Lockett has never looked better during the Pete Carroll-era. I'm not completely confident that Baldwin will be able to duplicate the dominant run he went on in the last 2 months of last season or that Lockett will continue to slip under the radar of every defense they face, but I still expect the Seahawks passing attack to improve once again in 2016.

Given the stability found on the rest of the offense, it's ironic that their offensive line is in an unprecedented state of disarray. The Seahawks porous offensive line play and revolving door of different starters caused the team to stumble out of the gates a year ago and they appear to be line in an even more brutal set of offensive line woes headed into 2016. Veteran left tackle Russell Okung-the only constant amidst all the moves last season-left for the Broncos in free agency and every single projected starter (center Justin Britt, left tackle Gary Gilliam, rookie guard Germain Ifedi and newly-acquired right tackle J'Marcus Webb) aside from left guard Mark Glowinski is playing a different position than did they last season, which is a beyond risky proposition for a team that was plagued with continuity issues upfront a year ago. The Seahawks have the benefit of having a mobile quarterback who can arguably evade pressure better than anyone in the NFL and a physical, tackle-shedding running back that doesn't require excellent run-blocking to be effective, but their championship hopes could be dashed if this offensive line can't come together.
   
Defense:
The Seahawks defense showed signs of legitimate weakness for the first time since "The Legion of Boom" was formed in 2012 due to down years from inside linebacker Bobby Wagner and safety Kam Chancellor, and an inability to nail down a competent starting cornerback (never forget the failed efforts of Cary Williams, Marcus Burley and DeShawn Shead) alongside Richard Sherman until Jeremy Lane was activated from IR in late November. Despite showing their mortality at various points of last season, the Seahawks still allowed a league-low 17.3 points per game, had the top-ranked rush defense and allowed the 2nd fewest yards in the league behind the Super Bowl champion Broncos.


Even with the loss of outside linebacker Bruce Irvin and defensive tackle Brandon Mebane in free agency and the unfortunate return of Brandon Browner-who is desperately seeking redemption after spending the past 2 seasons with the Patriots and Saints getting roasted by every competent receiver he faced-to the fold, I expect the Seahawks to maintain their established level of excellence during the 2016 season. With the possible exception of the Broncos, no defense in the league is better at all 3 levels and aside from 30-year old defensive ends Michael Bennett and Cliff Avril, all of their best defenders are 28 or younger, which means the majority of their core players are smack dab in the middle of or about to enter their prime years in the league. This defense has all the tools to succeed and unless all hell breaks loose, they should be in contention to be the absolute best in the league.

Bottom Line:
With a bevy of talent on both sides of the ball and a strong coaching staff, the Seahawks should once again be Super Bowl contenders in 2016.  

Projected Standings:
1.Seattle Seahawks (12-4)
2.Arizona Cardinals (10-6)
3.Los Angeles Rams (6-10)
4.San Francisco 49ers (2-14)

Tuesday, August 12, 2014

2014 NFL Preview: AFC South

Houston Texans: The 2013 Texans campaign was a shocking nightmare, as the team followed up two straight playoff berths with a 2-14 season that ended with 14 straight losses. While the Texans are almost a lock to do better in 2014, there isn't much of a reason to get really excited about the Texans this year. It's undeniable that the Achilles heel of the Texans last season was quarterback play. Matt Schaub was a turnover machine, Case Keenum looked good at times, but struggled to get the ball in the endzone and T.J. Yates was pretty much useless in his one start. For whatever reason, The Texans didn't really do much to address this problem in the offseason. They brought in journeyman Ryan Fitzpatrick and drafted Tom Savage in the fourth round, but I don't see either of them being able to solve the problem. While Fitzpatrick isn't quite as bad he's made out to be, he's not a guy that you can really count on to consistently win games. At the very least, Fitzpatrick does have experience and won't completely flop with veteran playmakers like running back Arian Foster and wide receiver Andre Johnson around him, making him the reluctant best option for the starting job. Savage is a completely different story, as he's a rookie with a huge arm and a lot of potential to be productive at the pro level in the future. The problem with Savage is that's he's far too unpolished at the moment to see the field at all this season, let alone be the starting quarterback. Of course, you always have Keenum as a fallback option, but he probably won't get much done as this is mostly the same offense he failed to produce with last season. It's a shame too because the Texans are built like a playoff team outside of the quarterback position and only got stronger in the offseason with the addition of number one overall draft pick outside linebacker/defensive end Jadeveon Clowney,  a potential sleeper tight end in third-round pick C.J. Fiedorowicz. and veteran safety Chris Clemons to their already talented units on both sides of the ball. The Texans are a squad with a lot of talent, but they won't return to the playoffs until they find a steady, productive quarterback.

Indianapolis Colts: In an extremely weak division, the Colts reigned supreme in 2013 going 11-5, which was a mere four games ahead of the second-place Tennessee Titans. In 2014, nothing has changed as the Colts are still head and shoulders above the rest of the teams in the division, and have only improved in the offseason. The Colts biggest additions were on the defensive front as they picked up defensive end Arthur Jones and inside linebacker D'Qwell Jackson to help turn around a rush defense that ranked 26th in the league in 2013. Jones and Jackson alongside the wildly underrated inside linebacker Jerrell Freeman and ageless pash-rushing demon Robert Mathis give the Colts a pretty lethal front seven that could really turn some heads this season. While the additions on defense certainly make the Colts a stronger team, the biggest reason the Colts should be even better in 2014 is quarterback Andrew Luck. Luck was sensational in 2013, cutting down his turnovers substantially and showing a lot more poise in and out of the pocket. Throw in the return of a healthy Reggie Wayne and Dwayne Allen, a potential comeback season for offseason pickup Hakeem Nicks and his ever-growing chemistry with T.Y Hilton, and Luck has all the tools he needs to have his best season to-date in 2014. Really the only giant question mark this team has is in the running game. Trent Richardson proved last year that he can not handle the duties of being a number one back in this league. Richardson's god awful vision and inability to break tackles isn't something that can be easily fixed, and I expect him once again struggle this season. The news doesn't fare much better in the Colts backfield behind Richardson as Vick Ballard is already out for the season with a torn achilles, leaving the injury-prone Ahmad Bradshaw as their backup and most reliable option in the running game. With basically no contingency plan in place if Richardson struggles yet again, the Colts could be forced into being a completely one-dimensional offense this season. The Broncos and Patriots clearly still run the AFC, but if there's any team that can emerge as a dark horse and unseat them from their throne, it's the Colts.

Jacksonville Jaguars: A sense of optimism may be around the corner in Jacksonville. The team used their first pick in the draft this year on quarterback Blake Bortles, who they believe is their quarterback of the future. Based on his college game tape and pre-draft workouts, I believe Bortles possesses the talent to eventually turn this down on their luck franchise around when he gets the chance to start in the coming years. However, that feeling of hope will be not be present this year as 2014 is shaping up to be yet another year of misery for the Jaguars. Of all the teams in the NFL, I don't think there is a team with less talent on their roster than the Jaguars. They did have a decent draft this year and added some solid enough veterans in free agency, but they still have giant gaps on both sides of the ball that weren't remedied in the offseason. First off, their offense is still an absolute disaster with middling journeyman quarterback Chad Henne leading the charge. Henne hasn't done much of anything in his two seasons with the Jaguars thus far yet he remains the starting quarterback. Henne's subpar production isn't entirely on him, as his offensive line has been terrible and his best wide receivers are often injured or suspended . Going into this season, Henne faces the same problems as the offensive line is still weak (even with the addition of ex-Bronco guard Zane Beadles) and number one wideout Justin Blackmon is suspended indefinitely. The Jaguars only hope on offense is running back Toby Gerhart. Gerhart has been touted as the next bellcow running back that's going to take the league by storm by many analysts and Jaguars coaches this season. Gerhart certainly has the size to be a dominant back (6'0, 231 lbs), but you don't know if he can handle that workload since he's never been a starter nor do you know how good he really is since he only got a small number of carries each year backing up Adrian Peterson with the Vikings. For the Jaguars sake, they better hope Gerhart pans out. They've got basically an entire offense riding on him at the moment. Things aren't much brighter on the defensive side of the ball. The team did invest heavily in a new, veteran-led defensive line, but I don't think guys like Red Bryant, Chris Clemons and Ziggy Hood are going to do much of anything to turn this team around. Seahawks castoffs Bryant and Clemons are going to be asked to do a lot more with considerably less talent around them and I really don't think they can live up to the challenge. Hood has a similar problem as Bryant and Clemons as he's also coming from a talented defense that thrived with or without his contributions. Hood struggled mightily last year for the Steelers and I doubt his elevated role with the Jaguars will do anything to help matters. Outside of these new guys, this is basically the same defense that finished in the bottom five in total defense a year ago. I expect this unit to be just as bad, if not worse in 2014. Gus Bradley is a good, motivated coach who is respected by his players and is able to get the most out of them. The problem is that no matter how good the coaching is, there just isn't enough talent on this squad to make a splash anytime in the near future.

Tennessee Titans: The Tennessee Titans are a team that is pretty easy to forget about. They aren't offensively bad, they certainly aren't great, they're kind of just there and I don't expect that to change in the slightest in 2014. Aside from the departure of longtime running back Chris Johnson and budding star cornerback Alterraun Verner, it's pretty much business as usual with the Titans. Just about the only intriguing storyline for the Titans this season is how quarterback Jake Locker will fare  in a make-or-break season after the Titans declined the fifth-year option on his rookie deal due to his inability to stay healthy for a full season. How Locker plays this year will not only decide his future with the Titans, but as a starter in the NFL in general. Locker looked better than ever in his five starts last season and if he can beat the odds and stay healthy, I believe he will string together a solid season and become the Titans long-term starting quarterback. The other intriguing storyline involves the impact of rookie running back Bishop Sankey could have on this offense. Sankey was one of the most heralded running back prospects in this year's draft thanks to his elusiveness, ability to catch passes out of the backfield and pass-block. With Johnson gone and an offense that is hurting for additional weapons next to wideout Kendall Wright, Sankey has the potential to be an integral part of this offense this year. The Titans are a bit better off on defense with 2013 All-Pro defensive tackle Jurrell Casey and linebacker Zach Brown anchoring a surprisingly stout front seven, but suffered a huge loss on the back end with Verner departing in free agency. Verner was a dominant presence in this secondary that was excellent in coverage and created a lot of turnovers. This secondary has instantly become more vulnerable without Verner and whoever gets the starting job (either Coty Sensabaugh or Blidi Wreh-Wilson) next to Jason McCourty is more than likely going to have endure some serious growing pains. The Titans might a new coach in Ken Wisenhunt, (potential) new franchise running back in Sankey and a handful of other new faces on offense and defense, but this is still the same old mediocre Tennessee Titans.

Projected Standings for the AFC South:
1.Indianpolis Colts (11-5)
2.Houston Texans (7-9)
3.Tennessee Titans (6-10)
4.Jacksonville Jaguars (3-13)