Houston Texans
2016 Record: 9-7 (1st in AFC South)
Head Coach: Bill O'Brien (4th season)
Notable Additions: T Breno Giacomini, ILB Sio Moore, CB Marcus Roberson
Notable Departures: QB Brock Osweiler, CB A.J. Bouye, S Quentin Demps
-Rick Smith was able to undo the biggest mistake of his 11-year tenure as the Texans GM by somehow finding a team that was willing to take on Brock Osweiler's ridiculous contract. In a twist that shouldn't really surprise anyone, the brave squad that was willing to accept a trade offer involving the grossly overpaid signalcaller was the Browns. The sabermetric-obsessed Browns gleefully agreed to dish out $19 million to Osweiler for the 2017 season, simply so they could add another 2nd round selection to their overflowing aresenal of future draft picks. It's one of the most jaw-dropping yet subtly ingenious transactions I've ever seen in the NFL and I doubt that the Texans have ever been happier to trade a draft pick in their brief existence as a franchise.
-With Osweiler out of the equation, the Texans appear to be set to (temporarily) turn over the reigns to Tom Savage. While he has yet to throw a touchdown as a pro, the 27-year old still managed to serviceable in the 3 games he appeared (461 YDS, 63.0 CMP% 0 INT's) in last season before going down with a concussion in Week 17. This defense is good enough to carry the Texans to another title in the sorry-ass AFC South, so as long as Savage can master the art of the dump-off pass and not turn the ball over at an Osweiler or Blake Bortles-esque level before they let him walk in free agency to make way for this year's 1st-round draft pick DeShaun Watson, they'll be fine.
-Savage and head coach/offensive coordinator Bill O'Brien got handed a big bag of shit when 2nd-year wideout Will Fuller went down with a broken collarbone during a training camp practice last week. Fuller may fallen off like crazy after a solid start to his rookie campaign a year ago, but his top-end speed at least gives O'Brien a constant splash-play threat to place next to firmly-entrenched top wideout DeAndre Hopkins. Now the team is left scrambling to find a starter from a trash heap of unattractive options. Converted college quarterback Braxton Miller is still far too raw to be trusted with a prominent role in the passing attack, Jaelen Strong has failed to make any plays that weren't fluke hail marys against the Colts, Devin Street is coming off a season where he hauled in a whopping 1 pass and Dres Anderson was an early cut by the Bears, whose receiver room currently includes such studs as Markus Wheaton, Reuben Randle and the rhythmic particles of dust that used to be Victor Cruz. If all hell breaks loose and Hopkins goes down sometime before Fuller returns, the Texans will be a Jets-level of fucked at the receiver position.
-2016 proved that the Texans defense doesn't need J.J Watt to succeed. As Watt spent the final 14 games on the sideline, his teammates managed to post very good numbers across the board (1st in yards allowed, 2nd in pass defense, 11th in run defense) and finish as the 11th ranked scoring defense in the league. With the 3-time Defensive Player of the Year reportedly returning at 100% after undergoing back surgery last September (his 2nd in a 2-month period), a series of interesting questions arise about what effect his presence will have on the functionally of this group. Will Watt's return stunt the growth of rising young stars Jadeveon Clowney and Whitney Mercilius? Is Watt comfortable letting other players emerge as vocal leaders or will he double-down on his attention-whore persona and ensure the spotlight is only on him? And most importantly, will the 28-year old still be able to play his bruising style of football after undergoing multiple major injuries in the past 2 seasons? In an ideal scenario, Watt's physicality won't drop off in the slightest and his disruptive presence upfront will make this talent-loaded unit even better than they were a season ago. At worst, he won't be the player he once was or his return will screw up this group's dynamic and force a surprise regression to happen. Logic would point to the former being the case, but Watt's potential physical decline and domineering presence on-and-off-the field could have a negative effect on the togetherness this group played with in his absence.
-The Texans currently have the rare luxury of letting notable players leave in free agency without suffering any serious loss of talent. Their excellent depth throughout the defense allowed them to let cornerback A.J. Bouye, safety Quentin Demps and outside linebacker John Simon walk this offseason without even batting an eye. On the flip side, their lack of new additions is also kind of worrisome. The biggest potential impact veteran they brought in this offseason was ex-Jets right tackle Breno Giacomini, who is currently locked in a position battle with incumbent starter Chris Clark. This is a team that struggled to go 9-7 in 2016 and unless some of their draft picks make a monumental impact right away (I'm looking at you Zach Cunningham and D'Onta Foreman), they're unlikely to be much better this season.
Bottom Line:
The Texans once again have enough defensive talent to win their division yet not enough offensive firepower to contend with the AFC's best teams.
-Rick Smith was able to undo the biggest mistake of his 11-year tenure as the Texans GM by somehow finding a team that was willing to take on Brock Osweiler's ridiculous contract. In a twist that shouldn't really surprise anyone, the brave squad that was willing to accept a trade offer involving the grossly overpaid signalcaller was the Browns. The sabermetric-obsessed Browns gleefully agreed to dish out $19 million to Osweiler for the 2017 season, simply so they could add another 2nd round selection to their overflowing aresenal of future draft picks. It's one of the most jaw-dropping yet subtly ingenious transactions I've ever seen in the NFL and I doubt that the Texans have ever been happier to trade a draft pick in their brief existence as a franchise.
-With Osweiler out of the equation, the Texans appear to be set to (temporarily) turn over the reigns to Tom Savage. While he has yet to throw a touchdown as a pro, the 27-year old still managed to serviceable in the 3 games he appeared (461 YDS, 63.0 CMP% 0 INT's) in last season before going down with a concussion in Week 17. This defense is good enough to carry the Texans to another title in the sorry-ass AFC South, so as long as Savage can master the art of the dump-off pass and not turn the ball over at an Osweiler or Blake Bortles-esque level before they let him walk in free agency to make way for this year's 1st-round draft pick DeShaun Watson, they'll be fine.
-Savage and head coach/offensive coordinator Bill O'Brien got handed a big bag of shit when 2nd-year wideout Will Fuller went down with a broken collarbone during a training camp practice last week. Fuller may fallen off like crazy after a solid start to his rookie campaign a year ago, but his top-end speed at least gives O'Brien a constant splash-play threat to place next to firmly-entrenched top wideout DeAndre Hopkins. Now the team is left scrambling to find a starter from a trash heap of unattractive options. Converted college quarterback Braxton Miller is still far too raw to be trusted with a prominent role in the passing attack, Jaelen Strong has failed to make any plays that weren't fluke hail marys against the Colts, Devin Street is coming off a season where he hauled in a whopping 1 pass and Dres Anderson was an early cut by the Bears, whose receiver room currently includes such studs as Markus Wheaton, Reuben Randle and the rhythmic particles of dust that used to be Victor Cruz. If all hell breaks loose and Hopkins goes down sometime before Fuller returns, the Texans will be a Jets-level of fucked at the receiver position.
-2016 proved that the Texans defense doesn't need J.J Watt to succeed. As Watt spent the final 14 games on the sideline, his teammates managed to post very good numbers across the board (1st in yards allowed, 2nd in pass defense, 11th in run defense) and finish as the 11th ranked scoring defense in the league. With the 3-time Defensive Player of the Year reportedly returning at 100% after undergoing back surgery last September (his 2nd in a 2-month period), a series of interesting questions arise about what effect his presence will have on the functionally of this group. Will Watt's return stunt the growth of rising young stars Jadeveon Clowney and Whitney Mercilius? Is Watt comfortable letting other players emerge as vocal leaders or will he double-down on his attention-whore persona and ensure the spotlight is only on him? And most importantly, will the 28-year old still be able to play his bruising style of football after undergoing multiple major injuries in the past 2 seasons? In an ideal scenario, Watt's physicality won't drop off in the slightest and his disruptive presence upfront will make this talent-loaded unit even better than they were a season ago. At worst, he won't be the player he once was or his return will screw up this group's dynamic and force a surprise regression to happen. Logic would point to the former being the case, but Watt's potential physical decline and domineering presence on-and-off-the field could have a negative effect on the togetherness this group played with in his absence.
-The Texans currently have the rare luxury of letting notable players leave in free agency without suffering any serious loss of talent. Their excellent depth throughout the defense allowed them to let cornerback A.J. Bouye, safety Quentin Demps and outside linebacker John Simon walk this offseason without even batting an eye. On the flip side, their lack of new additions is also kind of worrisome. The biggest potential impact veteran they brought in this offseason was ex-Jets right tackle Breno Giacomini, who is currently locked in a position battle with incumbent starter Chris Clark. This is a team that struggled to go 9-7 in 2016 and unless some of their draft picks make a monumental impact right away (I'm looking at you Zach Cunningham and D'Onta Foreman), they're unlikely to be much better this season.
Bottom Line:
The Texans once again have enough defensive talent to win their division yet not enough offensive firepower to contend with the AFC's best teams.
Indianapolis Colts
2016 Record: 8-8 (3rd in AFC South)
Head Coach: Chuck Pagano (6th season)
Notable Additions: DT Jonathan Hankins, OLB Jabbal Sheard, OLB John Simon
Notable Departures: P Pat McAfee (retired), S Mike Adams, TE Dwayne Allen
-After 5 years of poor drafting and misguided free agent signings, Jim Irsay pulled the plug on much-maligned general manager Ryan Grigson in mid-January. This move was long overdue, but at least Irsay finally rid this organization of the man that stunted any chance the team had of growing after they drafted young stars Andrew Luck and T.Y. Hilton in 2012. Grigson was replaced by former Chiefs front office assistant Chris Ballard, who went onto to put together a pretty impressive haul in his inaugural season as the Colts front office shot caller. Ballard addressed the team's hole-filled defense with a plethora of affordable, potential impact free agent signings (defensive tackle Jonathan Hankins, outside linebackers Jabbal Sheard and John Simon, inside linebacker Sean Spence) and brought in a draft class that is loaded with numerous high-upside prospects (safety Malik Hooker, cornerback Quincy Wilson, edge rusher Tarral Basham, running back Marlon Mack). While there's clearly no way to tell if Ballard's moves will help elevate the Colts from their 2-year mediocrity slump right now, he's already managed put more effort into trying to address the team's needs than Grigson did during his entire tenure.
-For a team that's looking to break out of a funk, the news that broke last Tuesday about Andrew Luck potentially missing the first 6 games of the season as he recovers from offseason surgery on his throwing shoulder was devastating. Luck's low-key excellent 2016 (63.5 CMP %, 4,240 YDS, 31 TD, 13 INT in 15 games) was the only reason the team cracked .500 and without him on the field, they would likely crumble into complete disarray. Current backup Scott Tolzien boasts a 0-2-1 career record as a starter and has thrown multiple interceptions in all 3 of those games. I'm not even a Colts fan and reading that stat still made me want to projectile vomit all over my keyboard. If a situation arises where Tolzien has to step in for any substantial length of time, this squad's hopes of returning to the playoffs for the 1st time since 2014 are pretty much dead and buried.
- 2017 is a crucial year for the development of this offensive line. For the 1st time in a long time, there's actually reason for optimism when you look at the Colts o-line group. Center Ryan Kelly had a pretty decent rookie year in 2016, Jack Mewhort has played well whenever he's been at his natural position of guard and left tackle Anthony Castonzo is a reliable performer that's currently in the middle of his prime. However, that's not to say there isn't still some reason for concern with this group. Young guns Joe Haeg and Le'Raven Clark didn't display the same level of polish or consistency as Kelly did in his rookie year and have the unfortunate distinction of being raw, inexperienced players playing on the same side of the line. There may be more talent present than there was in the Mike McGlynn/Samson Satele/Gosder Cherlius days, but unless they can establish some consistency and stability across the entire group, this revamped o-line will be deemed yet another failure for the long-suffering Colts.
Bottom Line:
Without the guarantee of a healthy Luck for the entire season, the Colts are more than likely going to miss the playoffs for the 4th straight season.
-After 5 years of poor drafting and misguided free agent signings, Jim Irsay pulled the plug on much-maligned general manager Ryan Grigson in mid-January. This move was long overdue, but at least Irsay finally rid this organization of the man that stunted any chance the team had of growing after they drafted young stars Andrew Luck and T.Y. Hilton in 2012. Grigson was replaced by former Chiefs front office assistant Chris Ballard, who went onto to put together a pretty impressive haul in his inaugural season as the Colts front office shot caller. Ballard addressed the team's hole-filled defense with a plethora of affordable, potential impact free agent signings (defensive tackle Jonathan Hankins, outside linebackers Jabbal Sheard and John Simon, inside linebacker Sean Spence) and brought in a draft class that is loaded with numerous high-upside prospects (safety Malik Hooker, cornerback Quincy Wilson, edge rusher Tarral Basham, running back Marlon Mack). While there's clearly no way to tell if Ballard's moves will help elevate the Colts from their 2-year mediocrity slump right now, he's already managed put more effort into trying to address the team's needs than Grigson did during his entire tenure.
-For a team that's looking to break out of a funk, the news that broke last Tuesday about Andrew Luck potentially missing the first 6 games of the season as he recovers from offseason surgery on his throwing shoulder was devastating. Luck's low-key excellent 2016 (63.5 CMP %, 4,240 YDS, 31 TD, 13 INT in 15 games) was the only reason the team cracked .500 and without him on the field, they would likely crumble into complete disarray. Current backup Scott Tolzien boasts a 0-2-1 career record as a starter and has thrown multiple interceptions in all 3 of those games. I'm not even a Colts fan and reading that stat still made me want to projectile vomit all over my keyboard. If a situation arises where Tolzien has to step in for any substantial length of time, this squad's hopes of returning to the playoffs for the 1st time since 2014 are pretty much dead and buried.
- 2017 is a crucial year for the development of this offensive line. For the 1st time in a long time, there's actually reason for optimism when you look at the Colts o-line group. Center Ryan Kelly had a pretty decent rookie year in 2016, Jack Mewhort has played well whenever he's been at his natural position of guard and left tackle Anthony Castonzo is a reliable performer that's currently in the middle of his prime. However, that's not to say there isn't still some reason for concern with this group. Young guns Joe Haeg and Le'Raven Clark didn't display the same level of polish or consistency as Kelly did in his rookie year and have the unfortunate distinction of being raw, inexperienced players playing on the same side of the line. There may be more talent present than there was in the Mike McGlynn/Samson Satele/Gosder Cherlius days, but unless they can establish some consistency and stability across the entire group, this revamped o-line will be deemed yet another failure for the long-suffering Colts.
Bottom Line:
Without the guarantee of a healthy Luck for the entire season, the Colts are more than likely going to miss the playoffs for the 4th straight season.
Jacksonville Jaguars
2016 Record: 3-13 (4th in AFC South)
Head Coach: Doug Marrone (1st season)
Notable Additions: DT Calias Campbell, CB A.J. Bouye, S Barry Church
Notable Departures: S Jonathan Cyprien, CB Prince Amukamara, TE Julius Thomas
-Even with the team's decision to exercise his 5th-year option and keep him under team control through the 2018 season, 2017 is going to be a make-or-break year for Blake Bortles in Jacksonville. The former top-5 pick undid any of the goodwill he earned during his perceived breakout 2015 campaign with an underwhelming 2016 that saw his TD total dip from 35 to 23 and already-maligned throwing mechanics fit a new level of sloppiness (sup Tebow-esque sidearm). Even as a person who has unreasonable amount of faith in Bortles, it's hard for me to envision a scenario where he magically fixes his ailments in a single offseason. New head coach Doug Marrone retained Nathaniel Hackett, whose has worked with Bortles since the 2015 season, as offensive coordinator, new front office minion Tom Coughlin reportedly doesn't envision him as the team's long-term starter and decisionmaking/delivery deficiencies are damn near impossible for a quarterback to correct in a such a short period of time. A rapid level of development that he has yet to display during his professional career paired with a tsunami of good fortune (aka a bunch of players overachieve and the teams ends up winning 8-10 games) is the only way Bortles will be able to keep his job past this season.
-To be honest, the best bet of the Jags offense getting back on track doesn't even lie on their embattled QB's shoulders. That's right, the most viable potential savior of this offense is rookie running back Leonard Fournette. Part of the reason Bortles and co. struggled so mightily last season was due to their inability to run the ball. Chris Ivory and T.J. Yeldon couldn't generate a god damn thing whenever they touched the ball (they combined for 904 yards on 247 carries), which forced their erratic, gunslinging quarterback to throw more than he should've. While there's questions about his durability and the talent level of the guys upfront that are blocking for him, Fournette has the potential to be the type of 3-down back you can run your offense through. At 6'1, 228 lbs, he has the devastating speed, size and power combo that every NFL team dreams of having in their backfield. The presence of a reliable workhorse back would bring a much-needed sense of balance to this group and take some of the pressure off of Bortles to be the sole creator of offense.
-The plus side of the Jags non-stop losing is the plethora of available cap space they have to go out and sign pretty much any free agent they want. Their 2017 haul might have been their most impressive to-date. Defensive tackle/end Calias Campbell is a versatile, well-rounded monster upfront that also happens to be one of the best locker room leaders in the league, cornerback A.J Bouye is a burgeoning menace in the slot and safety Barry Church is a run-stuffing specialist coming off a career-best year with the Cowboys. Putting more high-caliber veteran along talents alongside outside linebacker Telvin Smith, promising young corner Jalen Ramsey and last year's big-ticket signing defensive tackle Malik Jackson should help this mostly young unit make another substantial leap forward in 2017.
-There's nothing about this Branden Albert situation that isn't hilarious. The Jags acquired the 32-year old Pro Bowler from the Dolphins for pretty much nothing (tight end Julius Thomas and a 6th-round draft pick) in late February with the hopes that he would be a viable short-term solution to the left tackle woes that have plagued them since they dealt Eugene Monroe 4 games into the 2013 season. Then Albert gets a few days into training camp and decides he'd rather sit on his coach than try to protect Blake Bortles' blindside. The story appeared to be over until the news broke on Monday night that Albert told the Jags he wanted to return to the team and the brass said no thanks. To sum it all up, the Jags are now being forced to throw unpolished rookie Cam Robinson into the fire at left tackle right away and Albert is going to have to try and make his NFL "comeback" somewhere else. Professional sports never fail to be the greatest soap operas on Earth.
Bottom Line:
Even with the additions of more solid veteran talent, the Jaguars have too many deficiencies and uncertainties (particularly on offense) to make a significant jump in the standings this season.
Tennessee Titans
2016 Record: 9-7 (2nd in AFC South)
Head Coach: Mike Mularkey (2nd season)
Notable Additions: CB Logan Ryan, S Jonathan Cyprien, WR Eric Decker
Notable Departures: CB Jason McCourty, WR Kendall Wright, G Chance Warmack
-After a surprise 9-7 finish last season, everybody from Wichita to Omaha is aboard the Titans hype train heading into 2017. I'm one of the few people that refuses to board this densely-packed locomotive. This team never impressed me at any point of last season and nothing that's occurred in the 7 months since they last took the field gotten me to waver from that position. I think Marcus Mariota is more of an anonymous game-manager than a legit franchise quarterback, they're relying on a currently-injured rookie (Corey Davis) and an inconsistent 30-year old coming off of a major shoulder injury (Eric Decker) to improve their wonky receiving corps, their defense ,outside of a few nice pieces on the front 7 (Derrick Morgan, Jurrell Casey, Wesley Woodyard) is an unreliable, injury-prone mess (more on that later) and even though he's coming off a nice season (1,287 YDS, 9 TD) and has an excellent offensive line blocking for him, workhorse running back DeMarco Murray is still one of the biggest injury flight risks in the league (he already pulled him hamstring in training camp. I've got a strong feeling that this 2017 team will expose the Titans as a below-average squad primarily driven by fugazi talent that can't be relied to deliver sustained success in the NFL.
-The Achilles' heel of the 2016 Titans (and what their fanbase believes was the only reason they didn't win the division) was their secondary. Their 30th-ranked pass defense doesn't do justice to how much they burnt throughout last season. Naturally, general manager Jon Robinson made trying to upgrade this lackluster his primary focus this season. He went out and signed ex-Patriot corner Logan Ryan and former Jags Jonathan Cyprien on the 2nd day of free agency then proceeded to use 1 of the team's 2 1st round draft picks to select USC corner Adoree' Jackson. The problem with these moves is that every single one of them is a massive dice roll. Ryan was an erratic presence throughout his tenure in New England and has yet to prove he can guard top WR's on a weekly basis, Cyprien was a garbageman until last season and Jackson is a super athletic gambler that lives and dies by the big play. Robinson was right to make a ton of moves in the secondary, but I'm skeptical that the guys he brought in are going to be able to make the type of impact he desperately needs them to make in order to quickly sure up their horrific pass defense.
-Another part of the reason why I'm so down on the Titans is because of this coaching staff. A surprisingly strong season from DeMarco Murray and rare 16-game campaign for Brian Orakpo covered up a lot of the issues the schematic masterminds behind this operation bring to the table, but I wouldn't bank on it happening again. Mike Mularkey is a so-so offensive mind (I still haven't figured out what "exotic smashmouth" means) that has mustered 2 winning seasons and 0 playoff appearances in 5 seasons as an NFL head coach, Dick LeBeau is a stubborn fossil that won't let go of his precious zone-driven scheme that hasn't been consistently effective in at least 20 years and with just 1 year as an offensive coordinator, there's no way to tell if Terry Robiskie is the real deal or not (spoiler alert: I don't think he is). While the play of Mariota and the impact of (or lack thereof) their big-ticket free agent signing are currently commanding the narratives out of Nashville, the abilities of these 3 men should ultimately determine if the Titans deserve to be taken seriously as a playoff contender or simply benefited from a whole lot of fluky-ass strong performances in 2016.
Bottom Line:
The pride of Smashville appear set to fall back to Earth after overachieving a season ago.
Projected Standings
1.Houston Texans (9-7)
1.Houston Texans (9-7)
2.Indianapolis Colts (7-9)
3.Tennessee Titans (6-10)
4.Jacksonville Jaguars (5-11)
No comments:
Post a Comment