Tuesday, August 29, 2017

2017 NFL Preview: NFC North

Chicago Bears
2016 Record: 3-13 (4th in NFC North)
Head Coach: John Fox (3rd season)
 Notable Additions: QB Mike Glennon, S Quentin Demps, CB Prince Amukamara
Notable Departures: QB Jay Cutler, WR Alshon Jeffrey, QB Brian Hoyer
-The Bears transitioned to the post Jay Cutler-era in the most Bears way possible. General manager Ryan Pace appeared to have settled on a new starter when he signed "top" free agent quarterback Mike Glennon to a 3-year/$45 mil contract ($18.5 mil guaranteed) on the 1st day of free agency. While many fans across the country chuckled at how much money the Bears committed to a guy who hasn't played in a meaningful game since 2014, it was a smart, low-risk move that would either net them a new long-term starter or allowed them to easily move onto another option in 2018 (Pace wisely put a majority of the guaranteed money into the 1st year of the deal, so the team will only take a $3 mil cap hit if they cut him after this season). A month and a half after signing Glennon, the Bears confused the entire football world by trading up in the draft to select North Carolina product Mitch Trubisky. Nothing says "we know what we're doing" like drafting a QB in the top 5 less than 8 weeks after you anointed another guy your starter in one of the most bullshit-filled press conferences in sports history. The scariest part about this unnecessary, self-imposed QB dilemma is neither of these guys are particularly promising options. Glennon was below-average during his brief tenure as the Bucs starter before they drafted legit franchise signal-caller Jameis Winston 2 years ago while Trubisky is a raw, inexperienced (he only started for 1 season at North Carolina) passer coming out of a spread system that appears to be at least 2 years away from being able to start in an NFL game. I miss Cutler already.

-Making this delightful quarterback situation that much better is the dumpster fire the team currently has at wide receiver. This already dire situation has turned into a full-on catastrophe after top wideout (aka the lone glimmer of hope in a pile of heinous junk) Cameron Meredith tore his ACL in the team's 3rd preseason bout with the Titans on Sunday afternoon. With Meredith out for the year, the Bears now have to rely on 2015 1st-round pick Kevin White, who has appeared in 4 games in his first 2 seasons in the league and the trio of veteran castoffs (Markus Wheaton, Kendall Wright, Victor Cruz) Pace acquired in free agency to ensure that his team has the most fragile receiving corps in the league to make significant contributions in the passing game. Handing a pair of shaky quarterbacks a receiving corps that is as injury-prone and generally ineffective as this is an act of cruel, senseless torture that should result in prison time for whatever masochist in the organization thought it was a good idea to not ink a single durable veteran to a contract during the aforementioned "save a sad veteran wideout from unemployment" operation they ran this offseason. The decision to not give Alshon Jeffrey an extension before the 2016 season is going to come back to furiously bite this front office in the ass once this group of training table frequent flyers fails to collectively post 1,500 yards for this season.

-The unsettling level of disarray that is now present in the Bears passing attack has put starting running back Jordan Howard in a really shitty spot. The 2nd-year back, who finished 2nd in the league with 1,313 yards in 2016, is now a lock to face stacked boxes at least 75% of the time he lines up in the backfield. While Howard is a powerful runner that broke a ton of tackles last season (40 on 252 total carries), getting that level of attention could really stunt his growth as a player. If Howard can clear 4 yards a carry and 1,000+ yards on the ground this year against so many loaded fronts, then he truly is the league's next great back.

-While it's been understandably overshadowed by the seemingly endless number of question marks they have on offense, this defense actually appears to be in decent shape heading into this season. Their front 7 did a good job of getting to the quarterback last season (38 sacks, tied for 11th in the league) and with nose tackle Eddie Goldman back at 100% after missing almost all of 2016 with a high ankle sprain, their run D should improve, the additions of solid veteran cornerback Prince Amukamara and safety Quentin Demps should help bring some stability to their otherwise young secondary and defensive coordinator Vic Fangio has a proven track record of getting the most of every piece he's handed. They're clearly not going to challenging the Broncos, Seahawks, Texans, Patriots or Giants for the title of league's best defense anytime soon, but this unit has enough promising young talent (Adrian Amos, Leonard Floyd, Goldman) and underrated veterans (Akiem Hicks, Jerrell Freeman, Willie Young) to surprise some people in 2017.

Bottom Line:
Barring some shockingly strong quarterback play from 1 of their 2 wild cards at the position, 2017 will be yet another painful, emotionally-crushing season for the Bears. 

Detroit Lions
2016 Record: 9-7 (2nd in NFC North)
Head Coach: Jim Caldwell (4th season)
Notable Additions: T Ricky Wagner, G T.J. Lang, ILB Paul Worrilow
Notable Departures: T Riley Rieff,  G Larry Warford, S Rafael Bush
-It took a wave of luck (winning a tiebreaker over the Bucs despite ending the season on a 3-game losing streak) and a string of ridiculous 4th quarter comebacks (8 of their 9 wins were a result of late-game rallys) for the Lions to clinch a wild card spot last year. This may just be a result of me being a cynical prick, but I don't think Matthew Stafford and co. will be able to pull off that absurd feat again this season. Their roster just isn't overly good or deep on either side of the ball and I have a hard time buying them as a serious threat to contend in the tightly-contested without the acts of divine intervention that helped them pull off all of those unlikely rallies last season.

-Unlike their foes in Minnesota, the Lions went out and fortified their offensive line with a pair of smart, big-money free-agent signings this offseason. Ricky Wagner established himself as one of the league's premier right tackles during his 4-year tenure with the Ravens and former Packer T.J. Lang is a much more consistent run-blocker than previous starter Larry Warford. Pairing these excellent veteran lineman with 2nd-year tackle Taylor Decker, who greatly exceeded expectations as a rookie last season, should provide a much-needed spark to their long-suffering running game and help them sure up the pass-blocking inconsistencies that prevented them from being a top 10-12 line in the league a year ago.

-Ameer Abdullah needs to relish the opportunity Jim Caldwell and Jim Bob Cooter are giving him this season because it's most likely going to be his last chance to prove he can be a starting running back in the NFL. His brief professional career has shined an intense spotlight on the flaws (durability, ball security) he displayed during his time at the University of Nebraska while showcasing very little of the shiftiness and versatility that made him such a lauded prospect. He's looked pretty good in the preseason thus far and stands to benefit from the Lions somewhat-revamped offensive line, but the presence of pass-catching specialist Theo Riddick and gritcoin holder Zach Zenner-who both started and outplayed him while he missed time with a broken foot last season- in the backfield rotation make his room for error very small.

-No defensive player in the league is entering a more vital contract year than Ziggy Ansah. The 28-year defensive end was almost completely invisible a year ago, posting a paltry 2 sacks in 13 games after picking up 30 during his first 3 years in the league. A nagging ankle injury was reportedly to blame for Ansah's underwhelming season and given the fact that he's been on the PUP list for the duration of the preseason, there's no way of knowing if he's still hampered by it or the team is simply saving him for regular season action. Ansah's performance this season will not only effect how much money he'll land in his new contract, but it will also determine the productivity of the Lions pass-rush. 2016 team sack leader Kerry Hyder tore his ACL in the 1st preseason game and the front office's faith in Anasah's ability to return to form this season compelled them use to their draft assets elsewhere. Both parties need Ansah to thrive this season or else they'll end up side-by-side in a deep pit of self-loathing come January.      

Bottom Line:
Unless they can catch the same string of breaks they did in 2016, I don't see the Lions returning to the playoffs in 2017.

Green Bay Packers
2016 Record: 10-6 (1st in NFC North)
Head Coach: Mike McCarthy (12th season)
Notable Additions: TE Martellus Bennett, G Jahri Evans, CB Davon House
Notable Departures: G T.J. Lang, RB Eddie Lacy, C JC Tretter
-The Packers took a rare pair of potentially damaging hits by letting talented guards T.J Lang and center JC Tretter walk in free agency. Tretter had emerged as one of the league's most consistent young centers over the past 2 seasons and while the 30-year old Lang is nearing the end of his prime, he's still one of the top 15 guards in the league at this point in time. With Lang and Tretter now gone, this long-time strength could very well turn into a weakness. Center Cory Linsley is being thrust backing into the starting role after being benched in favor of Tretter at the start of the 2015 season while new pickup Jahri Evans is a long way removed from his dominant past as a perennial All-Pro with the Saints. Their elite tackle pairing (David Bakitahiri and Bryan Bulaga) should prevent them from completely imploding, but on paper, this looks it's going to be the shakiest o-line of the Aaron Rodgers/Mike McCarthy-era.

-Anyone that watched the Packers play in 2016 knows that their secondary outside of starting safeties Morgan Burnett and HaHa Clintion-Dix was nothing short of abysmal last year. While injuries admittedly played a part in this group's incompetence, the play of their young corners (Damarious Randall, Quentin Rollins, Ladarius Gunter) was often painful to watch. Even with a couple of tweaks and having all of their young corners return to the fold at full health, they're unlikely to be much better in 2017. Top draft pick Kevin King brings plenty of physicality to the table, but his coverage skills are still very much a work in progress, the return of Davon House to cheese country after a horrific 2-year stint in Jacksonville merely adds another uninspiring piece to their carousel of below-average corners and above all, there isn't a single guy currently on this roster that is consistent or dynamic enough to be a true #1 corner in the league. The blessing of not having any truly dominant receivers in their division should help keep things from getting out of hand during the regular season, but unless this secondary can make some unexpected strides, the Packers are going to run into some serious trouble come playoff time.

-The Packers signing of tight end Martellus Bennett could end up going down as one of the sneaky best moves of free agency. Bennett, who scored a career-high 7 TD with the Patriots last year, gives Aaron Rodgers yet another athletic vertical threat to work with as well as a much-needed redzone option in a primarily small-and-fast receiving corps. If he can develop a rapport with Rodgers and not get completely overshadowed by the Packers talented starting wideouts (Jordy Nelson and Davante Adams), I wouldn't be shocked if Bennett had the most productive season of his career thus far.

-By deciding not to re-up on Eddie Lacy and not bringing in any serious challengers during the offseason to compete for the job, the Packers appear to be committed to Ty Montgomery as their starting running back. The former wide receiver played pretty well last year (457 YDS, 3 TD's) in what was originally considered to be a temporary emergency gig due to injuries to Lacy and longtime backup James Starks. His lack of success in the playoffs last season ( 91 yards on 25 carries in 3 games)and small volume (including the playoffs, he only carried the ball 102 times last season) is a little bit alarming, but he still managed to do enough to prove he deserves a crack at the starting job. The progress or lack thereof Montgomery makes in his 1st full season as a starting running back should make for some fun drama on this otherwise stable, stagnant team.

Bottom Line:
With Aaron Rodgers still playing at an elite level and very limited roster turnover, the Packers are pretty much a lock to be in the NFC title mix for the 10th straight year. 

Minnesota Vikings
2016 Record: 8-8 (3rd in NFC North)
Head Coach: Mike Zimmer (3rd season)
Notable Additions: T Riley Rieff, T Mike Remmers, RB Latavius Murray
Notable Departures: RB Adrian Peterson, T Matt Kalil, CB Captain Munnerlyn
-Teddy Bridgewater is unsurprisingly still sidelined with the non-contact knee injury he suffered during a team practice last August, so that means that Vikings nation is in store for another season of the Sam Bradford experience. Bradford flexed why he's the king of efficient, relentlessly mediocre quarterback by setting an NFL single-season record for completion percentage (71.6%) in a year where the Vikings failed to parlay their hot start (6-0) into a playoff bid. Having Bradford under center once again raises the inevitable question of whether or not he is good enough to take a team to the playoffs. The 29-year old quarterback displayed a strong chemistry with a number of his top pass-catching targets (Adam Thielen, Kyle Rudolph, Stefon Diggs) and his reliance on low-risk short throws is ideal for defensive-driven team like the Vikings. However, if their defense is anything less than lights out and the running game doesn't take off like many people think it's going to this season, Bradford's "Alex Smith-light" style of play likely won't be enough to guide to them to the elusive promised land of playoffs.

-After watching the rushing game deteriorate without a healthy Adrian Peterson and Bradford run for dear life almost every time held the ball for more than 2 seconds, GM Rick Spielman finally decided to address the team's long-standing offensive line issues this offseason. Of course Spielman's idea of fixing the o-line was breaking out his checkbook to overpay the ever-loving shit out of a couple of guys from this year's horrific free agent class. The Vikings handed a pair of 5-year deals worth a  combined total of $36.8 mil in guaranteed money to the dream team of Riley Rieff, whose relentless inconsistency got him ousted by the Lions and ex-Panthers tackle Mike Remmers, who is best known for being the guy Von Miller put on skates for 4 quarters during Super Bowl 50. Handing out long-term deals for guys that are unlikely to be anything more than marginal improvements over woeful previous starters Matt Kalil and T.J Clemmings is a complete head-scratcher, especially for a team that currently has a starting quarterback with one of the lengthiest injury rap sheets in the league. The "overpay free agents to try and quickly fill a need" roster-building approach rarely yields positive results and I'd be surprised if this move ended up going down as one of the instances where this ill-advised yet consistently utilized personnel technique ended up working out.

-It became clear about halfway through last season that Adrian Peterson's time with the Vikings was going to come to a close after the 2016 season. The future Hall-of-Famer proved he wasn't a cyborg by showing signs of physical wear for the 1st time in his career and paying $18 million to a 32-year old back with a history of knee injuries that can't handle a 20+ carry per game workload anymore would be a batshit insane move. Replacing a generational talent like Peterson is going to be a tall order, but rookie Dalvin Cook absolutely has the potential to be a worthy successor. Cook, who surpassed Warrick Dunn as Florida State's all-time rushing leader last fall, has managed to impress the coaching staff so much in his first 4 months with the team that he's projected to beat out veteran free agent pickup Latavius Murray,who spent the past 2 seasons as the Raiders uncontested lead back, for the starting job. The Vikings early display of faith in Cook is an excellent sign for a player whose workouts were so heavily scrutinized throughout the pre-draft process. If Cook can avoid the off-the-field issues that played a role in his draft stock falling and display the same combination of vision, power and cutting ability that defined his time at FSU in the NFL, he should be able to make an instant impact for a Vikings squad that couldn't run the ball with any semblance of success a year ago.

Honorable Mentions:
Despite their abysmal offense line and average quarterback, the Vikings D is good enough to put them in the Wild Card mix.
 
Projected Standings
1.Green Bay Packers (11-5)
2.Minnesota Vikings (9-7)
3.Detroit Lions (7-9)
4.Chicago Bears (4-12) 

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