Thursday, August 3, 2017

2017 NFL Preview: AFC North

Baltimore Ravens
2016 Record: 8-8 (2nd in AFC North)
Head Coach: John Harbaugh (10th season)
Notable Additions: S Tony Jefferson, WR Jeremy Maclin, CB Brandon Carr
Notable Departures: WR Steve Smith Sr. (retired), TE Dennis Pitta (retired), T Ricky Wagner
 
 -If Joe Flacco's back injury proves to be more serious than advertised, this team is going to be in bring trouble. Current backup Ryan Mallet is an inaccurate, turnover-prone clown with the temperament of an 8-year old that's constantly whining when things don't go his way can not be counted on to win games in any situation where the team isn't playing the Jets, Bears, 49ers or Browns. Outside of Mallett, the team's QB depth chart is rounded out by the ragtag duo of Dustin Vaughn and Josh Woodrum, who have played for a combined total of 7 teams over the past 2 seasons. I've seen Pop Warner teams with more trustworthy options under center. Scumbag owner Steve Biscotti would be wise to drop his bullshit political facade and allow the team to sign Colin Kaepernick, so they can at least have 1 semi-competent backup stashed on the roster in case Flacco isn't available to start the season.


-The Ravens 5-year quest to assemble a competent secondary might finally be complete. After seeing steady improvement in 2016 following the addition of All-Pro safety Eric Weddle and strong play from rookie slot corner Tavon Young, the Ravens went out and further solidified the group by adding safety Tony Jefferson and cornerback Brandon Carr in free agency. Jefferson is an elite run-stuffing free safety that is on the cusp of entering his prime while Carr bounced back nicely in 2016 from a couple of so-so years with the Cowboys and gives the team a reliable veteran corner to put alongside the talented yet oft-injured Jimmy Smith. The team also further bolstered their depth by selecting cornerback Marlon Humphrey in the 1st round of the draft, although the zone coverage specialist likely won't pick up a ton of reps right away. Even with Young sidelined with a torn ACL, there's enough talent present for this unit to be at least a top 10 pass defense in 2017.


-Of course as soon as the Ravens put together a secondary that could actually be formidable, their long-stalwart offensive line suddenly goes down the toilet. They lost tackle Ricky Wagner in free agency to the Lions, dealt center Jeremy Zuttah to the 49ers for a late-round draft pick and guard John Urschel,who was projected to start at center in 2017, unexpectedly retired a few days before training camp started. The hits kept coming once training camp opened and rookie guard Nico Siragusa tore 3 major ligaments (ACL, PCL and MCL) in his knee. When you breakdown the resumes of the men that are left standing, you don't exactly get a warm fuzzy feeling about the prospects for the 3 starting vacancies that are currently up for grabs. 2nd-year guard Alex Lewis struggled mightily as a rookie, center Ryan Jensen has been below average in his 9 career starts spread out over the past 4 seasons, tackle De'Ondre Wesley has never started a game in the NFL, guard/tackle Jermaine Eluemunor is a raw rookie that doesn't appear to be anywhere near ready to handle meaningful snaps at the professional level and James Hurst has graded out as one of the worst tackles in football since he entered the league in 2014. Future Hall-of-Fame guard Marshal Yanda and promising 2nd-year tackle Ronnie Stanley should be able to keep things from completely falling apart, but this is undoubtedly the most talent-deprived offensive line the Ravens have had in recent memory.

-With Steve Smith Sr. and Dennis Pitta retiring this offseason, the already sketchy Ravens receiving corps managed to get even weaker. When journeyman Mike Wallace is your de facto top option in the passing game, you know you're in deep shit. To be fair, Wallace played his best football since 2011 (72 REC, 1,044 YDS, 4 TD) and looked a lot better than any of the other deadbeats that lined up alongside him last season (fragile, butter-fingered deep threat Bershad Perriman, former Seahawks Super Bowl standout Chris Matthews, new Indianapolis Colt Kamar Aiken, a couple of other future Arena Leaguers), but he's way too erratic and deep-ball dependent to be a legit top wideout in the league. The one glimmer of hopes this group has for improvement this season comes in the form of Jeremy Maclin. Maclin is coming off an underwhelming, injury-shortened 2016 campaign with the Chiefs, but the 29-year old is just 2 years removed from 1,088 YD, 8 TD season and could go off in a much more pass-happy offense than the one he spent the past 2 years playing in. However, if Maclin can't get his mojo back, this squad will more than likely have the exact same wonky passing attack they had a year ago.  


Bottom Line:
The Ravens are neither bad enough to have to consider rebuilding or good enough to be serious contenders, which should be enough to put them in Wild Card contention in the very weak AFC.

Cincinnati Bengals
2016 Record: 6-9-1 (3rd in AFC North)
Head Coach: Marvin Lewis (15th season)
Notable Additions: G/T Andre Smith, ILB Kevin Minter, CB Bene Benwikere
Notable Departures: T Andrew Whitworth, G Kevin Zeitler, ILB Karlos Dansby

-The Bengals offensive line, which has been excellent for the last 4 or 5 years was dealt a huge blow this offseason when left tackle Andrew Whitworth and right guard Kevin Zeitler left in free agency. Whitworth and Zeitler were among the most reliable players in the league at their respective positions and their consistently strong play established this unit as a force to be reckoned with, particularly in pass-protection, for much of the past 5 years. The organization's decision to move on from a pair of elite offensive lineman has turned one of their longtime strengths into a potentially massive weakness. New starting left tackle Cedric Ogbuehi and right guard Andre Smith are exactly the type of guys you don't want to rely onto start (raw young player and over-the-hill veteran that has no business starting respectively) and none of the 3 incumbent starters (center Russell Bodine, left guard Clint Boling, right tackle Eric Winston) are good enough to make up for the severe deficiencies their new linemates bring to the table. I'd recommend quarterback Andy Dalton and whatever running back they're planning on working into oblivion this season to start praying to whatever God they believe in because this offensive line is going to need some grand-scale divine intervention to be even half as good as they've been in recent years.   

-After trying to establish Brandon LaFell as their number 2 receiver with pretty middling results a season ago, the Bengals went out and attempted to beef up their receiving corps by using the number 8 overall pick on Washington product John Ross. While Ross' injury history is frightening, his absurd absurd speed combined with underrated route-running ability makes him a potentially excellent complement to franchise cornerstone A.J. Green. If he can stay healthy and gel with Dalton early on, Ross could emerge as a dark horse offensive Rookie of the Year candidate.

-Despite their respectable points against total (20.3, 9th in the league) a year ago, this defense isn't scaring anyone. They weren't particularly great in either facet of the game in 2016 (16th against the pass, 20th against the rush) and unless new starting inside linebacker Kevin Minter or 2nd-year corner William Jackson III-who missed all of 2016 with a torn pectoral muscle- greatly exceed their expectations, there's no reason to believe they'll improve in 2017. While defensive coordinator Paul Gunther could be partially to blame, I think the front office has put this unit in a position to underwhelm. The failure of their recent young draft picks (Darqueze Dennard, Will Clarke, Paul Dawson, Margus Hunt-who is now with the Colts) has forced the team to thrust ineffective veterans (Pat Sims, Michael Johnson, Dre Kirkpatrick) into starting roles, outside linebacker Vontaze Burfict is an unhinged, suspension waiting to happen that can't produce on a consistent basis and worst of all, the team has spent a ton of money re-signing guys that should've been handed their walking papers years ago (Kirkpatrick, Adam Jones, Johnson, who did leave only to came right back after a horrible 1-year stint with the Bucs). While the presence of reliable performers like Carlos Dunlap, Geno Atkins and Vincent Rey will prevent this unit from full-blown collapsing, owner/GM/failed Jerry Jones wannabe Mike Bown has done a horrific job assembling this defense and I believe his years of gross incompetence as a talent evaluator are finally catching up with him, which is subsequently causing this team to fall into a slow, steady downward spiral.

-If the Bengals miss the playoffs this year (which is highly probable), they have to pull the plug on Marvin Lewis. Lewis has been a decent coach that has strung together some impressive seasons (they've made 7 playoff appearances, earned 4 division titles and won 10+ games 6 times since he arrived in 2003) for this long-suffering franchise, but he's been unable to guide them to a single playoff win in 14 years on the job and his laid-back temperament has led to near-constant discipline issues on-and-off the field. Lewis' tenure in Cincinnati has been defined by blowing chances to win big games and I think Brown would be absolutely insane to give him a shot to redeem himself for the umpteenth time if hey can't end their prolonged streak of playoff futility this season.  

Bottom Line:
With a suddenly hole-filled offensive line and an aging, increasingly mediocre defense, the Bengals are a mortal lock to have another below average season.

Cleveland Browns
2016 Record: 1-15 (4th in AFC North)
Head Coach: Hue Jackson (2nd season)
Notable Additions: G Kevin Zeitler, C JC Tretter, QB Brock Osweiler
Notable Departures: WR Terrelle Pryor, QB Robert Griffin III, ILB Demario Davis

-I don't know if you've heard, but the Cleveland Browns are MAKING MOVES. General manager Sachi Brown and his Harvard-educated constitutes in the front office earned high praise from seemingly every person on the planet that pays attention to football for their bountiful offseason haul. The team invested heavily in the offensive line by bringing in Kevin Zeitler and center JC Tretter, and signing promising young guard Joel Bitonio to a  5-year, $50 mil extension, used their stash of draft picks to select 3 highly-touted prospects in the 1st round (edge-rushing phenom Myles Garrett, hyper-athletic gadget player Jabril Peppers and pass-catching tight end David Njoku) and managed to pick up yet another future 2nd-round pick from the Texans for the luxury of taking on quarterback Brock Osweiler's insane contract for at least this season. It remains to be seen if this abundance of assets are going to materialize into anything game-changing, but this long-embattled organization does deserve some credit for at least appearing to have a vision for the future.

- The Browns made a wise decision by not jumping the gun and overdrafting a quarterback in a shaky class just for the hell of it this season. Unfortunately for their fanbase, this intelligent restraint puts them in yet another "pick your poison" QB situation for the 2017 season. Likely starter Osweiler was unsurprisingly awful (2,957 YDS, 15 TD, 16 INT, 59.0 CMP% in 15 games) with the Texans last season and with a well below average receiving corps that's headlined by free-agent pickup Kenny Britt and 2nd-year wideout Corey Coleman, it's unlikely he'll fare any better with the Browns. If Osweiler struggles early on, I won't be shocked if the Browns pulled him for one of their younger options. Cody Kessler was at least efficient when he wasn't getting concussed last season and despite rookie DeShone Kizer's crippling flaws with accuracy, his tremendous athleticism and success throwing under pressure while he was at Notre Dame makes him an intriguing project for a team like the Browns to take on. With a quarterback situation this unsettled and a very good offensive line that has the talent to bully opposing front 7's, I'd expect a heavy dose of running back Isaiah Crowell this season.

-As I mentioned above, 2017 seems like it's going to be a huge year for Crowell. Zeitler and Tretter are the type of lane-opening bruisers that can elevate a team's running game right away and with last year's backup RB Duke Johnson Jr. reportedly getting transitioned to a slot receiver role this season, head coach Hue Jackson seems fully committed to the 24-year old as a workhorse back. The bursts of brilliance have been there (he's ran for 120+ YDS 4 times in the past 2 seasons) in the past, but now that he finally has a strong offensive line in front of him and a solid chance of receiving heavy volume, Crowell seem poised to break into the top-tier of the NFL's running back hierarchy.

 -After getting shockingly dealt by the Patriots a few hours before the trade deadline ended last October, outside linebacker Jamie Collins struggled to make much of an impact for his new team. While he posted 62 tackles and 2 sacks in his 8 games with the Browns, he was terrible in pass coverage and rarely flashed the inhuman burst that made him a disruptive menace during his tenure in New England. Right now, Bill Belichick is looking like a genius for dumping Collins for pretty much nothing (the Patriots included the 3rd-round pick they got in exchange for Collins in the trade with the Saints for WR Brandin Cooks). However, the 27-year old former Pro Bowler has a great opportunity to make his old boss look stupid for giving up on him in 2017. New defensive coordinator Gregg Williams has put together some impressive front 7's during his 16 years as a shot-caller in the league and the 4-year/$50 mil contract they handed him this offseason proves the organization has faith in his ability to turn it around after a down year. The Browns currently lacks any proven veteran talent on defense (although nose tackle Danny Shelton, inside linebacker Christian Kirksey and cornerback Jamar Taylor did play well last year) and with a strong 2017 campaign, Collins could become the centerpiece this young, largely unproven group desperately needs.  

Bottom Line:
No amount of praise for their offseason moves or long-term optimism is going to prevent the Browns from sucking in 2017.

Pittsburgh Steelers
2016 Record: 11-5 (1st in AFC North)
Head Coach: Mike Tomlin (11th season)
Notable Additions: CB Coty Sensabaugh, DE Tyson Alualu, RB Knile Davis
Notable Departures: RB DeAngelo Williams, ILB Lawrence Timmons, TE LaDarius Green

-About the only negative thing you could say about the Steelers 7th-ranked offense in 2016 was their lack of a consistent number 2 receiver. Eli Rodgers, Markus Wheaton, Cobi Hamilton and Darius Heyward-Bey all had some standout moments, but couldn't provide the team with a secondary downfield receiving threat to put next to perennial All-Pro Antonio Brown. This issue has a good shot of being corrected in 2017. Martavis Bryant, who was suspended for the entire 2016 season after failing 3 drug tests in just over a year, was conditionally reinstated in April and should be able to return to this role in the starting lineup when the season kicks off in September. If Bryant fails to get reinstated before the season starts, Rodgers should be able to at least match his so-so production levels from a year ago (48 REC, 594 YDS, 3 TD) and 2nd-round pick JuJu Smith-Schuster should be to make up for some of the redzone mismatches that are missing when the former Clemson standout isn't on the field. The Steelers are even more deadly on offense when they multiple vertical threats in the lineup and if they want any shot of ending the Patriots reign of terror on the AFC, they're going to need someone to step into that role.

-With the team not electing to re-sign DeAngelo Williams this offseason, the backup running back competition is wide competition. While these suitors have the benefit of running behind one of the most dominant offensive lines in the league, none of them possess the efficiency and past history of success at the professional level that Williams brought to the table. Rookie James Connor is a power back that doesn't have great speed or pass-catching skills, newly-acquired Knile Davis is coming off a tumultuous 2016 campaign where he couldn't hold down a roster spot on a back-needy Packers squad and holdover Fitzgerald Toussaint is still one of the most hated men in Pittsburgh after he lost a fumble that cost the Black and Yellow a playoff game against the Broncos back in 2015. Star workhorse back Le'Veon Bell is currently holding out for a new contract and is all but guaranteed to miss time with an injury this season, so 1 of these guys will likely get some significant action at some point during the season, regardless of whether or not they're ready to handle a starting halfback's workload. 

-If the Steelers are going to have any legitimate shot at winning a championship in 2017, their defense is going to need to make significant strides. Their secondary started to come together nicely last season with the emergence of Russ Cockrell as a solid outside corner and strong play of Artie Burns down the stretch, but their front 7 is still kind of a mess. 39-year old James Harrison is somehow still the best player the team has upfront and defensive end Cameron Heyward is the only consistent pass-rushing threat on the roster. This front's ability to make a much-needed leap forward is going to come down to the play of their young starters. While he's flashed plenty of athleticism and made some huge plays, inside linebacker Ryan Shazier has been an incredibly inconsistent tackler for all 3 years he's been in the league and outside linebacker Bud Dupree, who's been largely silent since he entered the league in 2015, desperately needs to flash the pass-rushing prowess and versatility he showed at Kentucky to shed the "bust" label that's been attached to his name after picking up a paltry 8.5 sacks in first 2 years in the league. The impact guys like Shazier, Burns, Dupree and rookie T.J. Watt make on a week-to-week basis is going to determine whether or not this team can finally break out of their long rut and field a talented, well-rounded defense for the 1st time since the peak of the Polamalu/Taylor/Timmons/Harrison-era.  

Bottom Line:
With an elite offense, slightly above average defense and no visible attempts to break from their predictable personnel mold, the Steelers faithful can get excited for yet another blowout playoff loss to the Patriots in 2017.

Projected Standings
1.Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5)
2.Baltimore Ravens (7-9)
3.Cincinnati Bengals (6-10)
4.Cleveland Browns (4-12)

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