by
John Nygren
Over
the past two seasons, the NBA's salary cap has increased
significantly (raised from $70 mil in 2015-16 to $96 mil in 2016-17
and $107 mil in 2017-18). As a result of this sizable spike in the
amount of money all 30 teams can spend, huge contracts have been
handed out like candy on Halloween. Everyone from marginal role
players to franchise cornerstones that are eligible for the
newly-implemented super max deals, which allow any player that's been
in the league for at least eight seasons to receive $70 million more
from the last team they played for (in most cases, the team that
drafted them) than they would if signed elsewhere in free agency,
that have been fortunate enough to hit the open market since this cap
increase kicked in has absolutely cashed out. Having more money to
work with has undoubtedly affected how teams approach building a
roster and based on the moves (or lack thereof) that have been made
since the start of the 2017-18 season, we're starting to see teams
get smarter at managing their assets after two years of reckless mass
spending around the league.
This
recent shift in spending philosophies can be traced back to the fair
amount of miscalculated, team-paralyzing contracts that were inked
back in July 2016 when this salary cap hike was first introduced.
Non-contending teams were so eager to add potential impact veteran
players to their roster that they threw absurd amounts of money at
anyone that was willing to come join their team. The biggest standout
among all of these bad deals has to be small forward Chandler Parsons
of the Memphis Grizzlies. To be fair, Parsons' ceiling was about as
high as any player that was available at his position in his free
agency class. He was an explosive, versatile player who averaged
around 14 PTS, 5 REB and 3 AST per game as a starter on two different
playoff-caliber teams (Houston and Dallas) during the first 5 years
of his career. His coveted skill set and fair amount of big game
experience was enough to convince Memphis, who had made the playoffs
in six consecutive seasons and reached the Western Conference Finals
in 2012-13, to sign him to a 4 year/$96 mil deal ($24 mil per season,
which was more than any player besides Kobe Bryant made prior to the
cap hike).
Six
games into his tenure with the Grizzlies, Parsons went down with a
bone bruise in his right knee that sidelined him for 17 games and
hasn't been the same since. He's since gone onto suffer a partially
torn meniscus that ended his 2016-17 season after 34 games and has
missed extended periods time in 2017-18 (31 games in total) due to
knee soreness. Don't get me wrong, what has happened to Parsons since
he arrived in Memphis has been very sad to watch, but the harsh
reality is that even if he produced at the same level that he had in
the past, he still would've been highly overpaid.
The
Parsons deal may have yielded the worst results, but there were
plenty of other desperate teams that handed out bad contracts that
summer. Nicolas Batum, a pretty talented 2-way guard that was shipped
out of Portland due to concerns over his lengthy injury history,
signed a 5-year/$120 mil contract to stay with Charlotte after a
solid 2015-16 campaign in which the Hornets won 48 games and lost a
hard-fought first round playoff series to Miami in seven games. While
Batum appeared in 77 games and went on to average career highs in
points (15.1) and assists (5.9) per game last season, Charlotte has
gotten worse on the whole since he inked his new deal and his
multi-year/high money contract status makes him untradeable.
Charlotte's insistence on packaging Batum in any potential Kemba
Walker trade reportedly deterred Cleveland from making a serious
offer for him at the deadline. When Dan Gilbert passes on a chance to
add a young All-Star point guard because of the throw-in player's
salary, you know you're getting paid too much.
If
you look at a majority of the teams that signed these questionable
contracts, they're in the worst possible position any NBA team can be
in. They're not good enough to make the playoffs and not bad enough
to be in the top half of the lottery. This puts them in a nightmare
scenario of not having the cap space to land another top-level
veteran talent in free agency or getting to enjoy the luxury of
getting to select a potential franchise-altering superstar at the top
of the draft or flipping the pick for an established star.
Now
that we're somewhat removed from the shininess of having a new cap,
there appears to be to hope on the horizon. With teams starting to
learn how to manage having over $100 mil in available money every
year, players are starting to receive more reasonable
contracts.
A
perfect example of this new line of thinking is the 3 year/$24 mil
extension the Clippers gave Lou Williams earlier this month. This is
a sensational value for a player that's still in his prime at 31 and
is currently averaging career-highs in points (23.2), assists (5.3)
and free throw percentage (89.5%).
Now
let's compare Lou Will's deal to Jordan Clarkson's-a player with a
similar skill set and role as a top offensive option off the bench
that was just traded to Cleveland because of his contract. Clarkson
was one of the lucky ducks to cash-in on that new cap overspending by
returning to the Lakers on a 4 year/$50 mil deal. While Clarkson's
numbers have been pretty good (14.6 PTS, 3.0 AST, 3.0 RPG, 44.6 FG%
over the past season and a half), his productivity level wasn't
enough to justify his $12.5 mil annual salary. As solid of a
spark-scoring threat as Clarkson is, it's hard to argue that he's
worth $4.5 mil more per season than a previous Sixth Man of The Year
winner that's consistently posted better numbers in a similar number
of minutes played.
The
ripple effect from Lou Will's contract is pretty much guaranteed to
felt in free agency this season. Handing a veteran sharpshooter whose
averaged over 15 points per season on four different teams since the
start of the 2014-15 season $8 mil a year has returned negotiating
leverage to the owners and effectively ended overinflated contracts
for role players. Barring some unforeseen tomfoolery in July, this
deal should significantly lower the asking price of other talented
guards that are set hit to free agency this summer (Will Barton,
Avery Bradley, Rodney Hood, Marcus Smart) from their initial asking
price of $12-15 mil per year down to somewhere around $5-8 mil per
year.
An
influx of teams placing a higher value on team-friendly rookie
contracts have also played a part in the end of complementary players
getting overpaid. As you saw at this year's trade deadline, most
teams would rather hold onto guaranteed low-salary guys that give
them flexibility for multiple years then cash in their chips for a
high-priced rental that more than likely won't factor into their
long-term plans. In a league where superstars eat up a large portion
of the available cap space, you need contributions from 2nd-round
picks, undrafted free agents and overseas players to build cheap
depth on your roster more than ever.
There
are 2 words GM's need to keep in mind as this potentially
game-changing free agency approaches: Flexibility and versatility.
Being able to find the right balance of young players to develop,
role players on reasonable low-to-mid level contracts and stars that
command top-dollar within a 3-4 year window is a very difficult task
that is essential to building a successful team in the modern NBA.
While there's no doubt that the players that missed out on the
spending sprees of the past 2 summers will leave the negotiating
table with a bad taste on their mouth, teams will have a great
opportunity to redeem themselves by signing quality players to
reasonable contracts.
For
more NBA news and reactions, make sure to follow me @JohnNygrenBOS
on Twitter or shoot me an email at johnnynygren@gmail.com Thanks for
reading.
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