Indianapolis Colts over Houston Texans: Deshaun Watson may already be the best quarterback in franchise history, but I still have a very difficult time trusting the Texans organization once the calendar turns to January. Unless you hold their pair of sloppy victories over the hapless Bengals or 2017's comical blowout of a Connor Cook-led Raiders team in high regard, there's not a whole lot to gush over when assessing this franchise's playoff history (they've been outscored 125-57 in their other 4 playoff games, all losses). Their dismal postseason history combined with their middling play in December makes a matchup with the Colts less-than-ideal. This Colts squad plays with a ton of edge on both sides of the ball, has a veteran quarterback in Andrew Luck that boasts a pretty strong playoff resume in games that were held outside of Gillette Stadium (3-1 record, 8 total TD's, 6 INT, 84.7 QBR) and have only lost 1 of their last 10 games-including a win at Houston in early December. In a likely close game between two divisional opponents, I have to give the advantage to the tougher team that's been playing better football of late.
Seattle Seahawks over Dallas Cowboys: This is the 1st playoff matchup between these two teams since the infamous Tony Romo botched field goal hold game during the 2006 playoffs. Nearly 12 years to the day of that unforgettable gaffe, I'm expecting the Seahawks to come out of Arlington with a W yet again. As great as this defense and Ezekiel Elliott have been this season, I just can't pick against a Russell Wilson/Pete Carroll-led team that has a tendency to masterfully control the clock with their top-ranked rushing offense and delivers in big moments more often than not-particularly when you look at the decisive victories they've earned over the Cowboys (21-12 in Dallas last year, 24-13 in Seattle this year) in back-to-back seasons.
Baltimore Ravens over Los Angeles Chargers: The 2018 Chargers have made a habit of winning when they weren't supposed to and a 2,600+ mile trip to a hostile environment for a game that kicks off at 10:00 AM PST certainly qualifies as such. However, the Ravens are on a god damn warpath right now and I'd be surprised if a Chargers squad who has struggled to put points on the board in back-to-back weeks thanks to Philip Rivers' regularly-scheduled sudden decline in play will be able to hang with this old-school monster of a team that can stifle opposing offenses as well as anyone in the league while wearing down defenses with a revolving door of dynamic rushing threats.
Chicago Bears over Philadelphia Eagles: I'm having a REALLY hard time not picking the Eagles here. The defending Super Bowl Champs have a huge edge in postseason experience (duh), Doug Pederson likely has a ton of insight on former protégé Matt Nagy's tendencies from their days in Kansas City and Nick Foles has an inexplicable gift for putting up monster performances in important games. Despite all of these very legitimate reasons to pick Philly, I'm giving the ever-so-slightest of edges to the Bears. Their aggressive, takeaway-happy defense gives them the best possible chance of limiting Big Dick Nick's aerial magic and as long as they maintain the balance they've displayed in recent weeks and avoid turning the ball over, Mitch Trubisky and co. should be able to expose the flaws on the back end of the Eagles defense.
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