Arizona Cardinals
2018 Record: 3-13 (4th in NFC West)
Head Coach: Kliff Kingsbury (1st season)
Notable Additions: ILB Jordan Hicks, OLB Terrell Suggs, CB Robert Alford
Notable Departures: QB Josh Rosen, S Antoine Bethea, OLB Deon Bucannon
-Steve Wilks wasn't given a chance to even attempt to turn things around before he got the boot as Cardinals HC. He may have proven to be a complete dud as an HC, but putting together a 3-13 season with a rebuilding team that had a rookie under center and changed offensive coordinators halfway through the season is a hardly an indication that he wasn't cut out for the gig. Wilks' abrupt firing was clearly a move of self-preservation by GM Steve Kiem that likely won't work unless he miraculously found another Bruce Arians-type that can things around in no time at all to fill the position.
Safe to say, I don't think Kliff Kingsbury is going to be the savior this Kiem is desperately looking for. Hell, I actually think he was the worst head coaching hire of this offseason by a wide margin. I get wanting to bring in an offensive-minded coach given the current landscape of the league, but Kingsbury, who was FIRED as Texas Tech's head coach in November, just seems like a silly, reactionary hire that only occurred because he coached Patrick Mahomes in college and has a close relationship with Sean McVay.
Unlike other college coaches that have made the leap to the pros (Nick Saban, Chip Kelly, Steve Spurrier) over the past 20 years, Kingsbury's resume isn't remotely impressive. Over the course of his 6 seasons in Lubbock, the Red Raiders went a whopping 35-40 overall and 19-35 in Big 12 play. This dude struggled to secure wins against middling collegiate competition such as Iowa State and Kansas State yet he's expected to make waves at the professional level??? Give me a break. "But his defenses were terrible!!!!" is a common retort to the criticism of Kingsbury's college record. My response: It's the Big 12, everybody's defense is terrible. If he truly was this cutting edge offensive wizard, he would've won a lot more of the shootouts that take place on a weekly basis in that division and landed another college gig higher than offensive coordinator at USC following his dismissal from Texas Tech.
I'm also really struggling to figure what is innovative about his system. The air raid is just a popular variation on the spread offense that 98% of college programs run. You mean to tell me that Wade Phillips, Ken Norton Jr. and every other veteran defensive coordinator the Cardinals square off against are going to be thrown off by a simplistic uptempo offense where the quarterback is told where to throw the ball that a ton of crapbag college teams like the one that Kingsbury ran for the past 6 years utilize? I'm sorry, I just don't see a universe where that happens. How some dink that was fired after performing at a below average level in what is essentially the NFL's farm system got a chance at a NFL head coaching gig over Eric Bieniamy, Mike McCarthy or even actually successfully college coach Lincoln Riley is completely beyond me.
-Kiem's last ditch efforts to remain the GM of the Cardinals beyond this season continued when he gave up on #10 overall pick Josh Rosen after just 1 season. As I briefly outlined earlier, Rosen predictably struggled with an incompetent supporting cast once he got the call to start in Week 4-posting 2,278 YDS, 14 INT's, a dismal 55.2 CMP% and just 11 TD's in 13 games. Kiem bizarrely waited until the middle of the draft to deal Rosen and ended up getting a very minimal return (a late 2nd round pick in this year's draft and a 5th rounder in next year's) from the Dolphins in exchange for a kid who was in the conversation for the #1 overall pick just 18 months ago.
The reason Rosen was viewed as expendable in the eyes of the Cardinals is reigning Heisman Winner Kyler Murray. Murray, who was excepted to forgo the NFL to go play baseball for the Oakland A's as recently as last November, rode a wave of hype that seemed inconceivable last fall all the way to the #1 overall pick in the 2019 NFL Draft. It's crazy what a Heisman Trophy and the breakout pro success of the guy that proceeded you in college (Baker Mayfield) will do for your draft stock.
Despite all of the buzz around Murray, there are very legitimate concerns about his transition to the pros. On paper, he checks most of the boxes you want in a quarterback. He was accurate, fundamentally-sound and composed under pressure as a passer as well as a game-breaking rushing threat that was brilliant at protecting himself from taking brutal hits downfield. However, his limited starting experience (only 1 year at Oklahoma), the fact that he faced no legit defenses in college outside of Alabama in his final game and size (the 5'10 listing he seems generous, I wouldn't be surprised if he was 5'8) means he could be in a for rude awakening when he goes up against high- caliber NFL competition. Even if Murray holds up to the increased mental and physical rigors of playing the position at the next level, the Cardinals still have a trash offensive line (3 of 5 returning starters from last season with below average veteran guard J.R. Sweezy and tackle Marcus Gilbert joining the gang on the right side) and a questionable set of receivers (over-the hill vets Larry Fitzgerald and Michael Crabtree, whippersnappers Christian Kirk, KeeSean Johnson and Andy Isabella) that could ultimately lead him to struggle the same way Rosen did last season. When the dust settles on the 2019 campaign, we'll find out a lot about Murray, Rosen and whether or not the way the organization built this roster prevented them from meeting their potential.
-Even during the height of the Arians-era where the offense was racking up points on a near-weekly basis, defense was a huge part of the Cardinals success. Todd Bowles and James Bettcher oversaw aggressive, physical groups that swarmed quarterbacks and created turnovers at a high clip. In 2018, that magic all but completely disappeared. They were thoroughly unimpressive in several key categories, finishing 26th in scoring defense (26.6 PPG allowed), 28th in takeaways (16) and dead last against the run (154.9 YDS per game). With a slew of new additions and partystarter Vance Joseph taking over as defensive coordinator, they could be on the upswing in 2019.
Rookie Zach Allen was a tremendous run defender during his time at Boston College, Terrell Suggs, Brooks Reed and Clinton McDonald are great veteran depth pieces to complement edge rushing monster Chandler Jones and although he's injury-prone (21 missed games in 4 seasons), inside linebacker Jordan Hicks is an active, field-stretching playmaking presence whenever he's on the field. Their corner situation to start the year with Patrick Peterson suspended for 6 games and free agent pickup Robert Alford out until at least November with a leg fracture is a little worrisome (veteran journeyman Tramaine Brock and rookie Byron Murphy are currently slated to start in their absence), but if their overhauled front and underrated safety duo of D.J. Swearinger and Budda Baker can do an adequate job of covering up that clear vulnerability, this defense could end up returning to their past glory.
Bottom Line:
Kingsbury better hope the shot callers are more patient with him than they were with Wilks because the Cardinals are longshots to be anything better than below average in 2019.
Los Angeles Rams
2018 Record: 13-3 (1st in NFC West)
Head Coach: Sean McVay (3rd season)
Notable Additions: S Eric Weddle, OLB Clay Matthews, QB Blake Bortles
Notable Departures: G Rodger Saffold, S Lamarcus Joyner, DT Ndamukong Suh
-The Rams Super Bowl performance against the Patriots was a truly bizarre Jekyll and Hyde act that should be studied by every football historian for the rest of time. Their defense showed up big time by stifling Tom Brady and co. for the vast majority of the game while their offense was an ineffective, disorganized disaster that looked like they had never played a down in the NFL prior to that night. How can something like this happen in the biggest game of the year? Simple, experience. Grizzled defensive coordinator Wade Phillips prepared beautifully for the Patriots offense by throwing out all sorts of wrinkles they weren't prepared for. 33-year old wizkid Sean McVay was in an awe of the opponent and subsequently crapped his pants by calling the worst game of his career (Patriots linebacker Kyle Van Noy said in an interview a few weeks after the game that the Rams literally ran 1 play that they hadn't seen previously on film).
McVay's failure in the Super Bowl could prove to be key for defining his legacy moving forward. Was that wretched performance simply an off day or did it expose his limitations as a coach? Can he reinvigorate morale and get his players to continue to believe in him as a leader after such an agonizing defeat? Will be able to prepare Jared Goff to better handle pressure situations in the future? How he handles these first bits of adversity in a tenure that had been exclusively defined by sunshine prior to February 3rd 2019 will prove what this widely heralded prodigy is really made of.
-Les Snead's decision to ink Todd Gurley to a record-breaking 4 year/$60 mil extension last summer was met with plenty of flack from fans, media and rival executives. As special of a talent as Gurley is, his history of knee problems paired with his heavy usage rate made him a higher risk to burn out early in his career than most running backs. That widespread concern was validated when Gurley suddenly lost a ton of explosiveness down the stretch in 2018-which forced him to sit out the final 2 regular season games, receive limited touches in the playoffs (34 in 3 games, 18 of which came in the divisional round against the Cowboys) and eventually led to a diagnosis of an arthritic knee during the offseason.
There's a very real possibility that Gurley is never the same guy again. Arthritis isn't just something you shake off, especially when you play a position where rapidly changing direction and a willingness to fight through contact play such an integral role in being successful. Gurley's possible demise is something even the Rams have acknowledged by drafting Memphis-bred speedster Darrell Henderson in the 3rd round this year and McVay's publicly entertaining the idea of lessening his workload moving forward. The Rams have the luxury of having enough weapons (Brandin Cooks, Robert Woods, Cooper Kupp) in the passing game and the type of stout offensive line that allows any a-hole that lines up in the backfield to put up passable numbers (as evidenced by what C.J. Anderson, who had been cut by 3 teams in less than 12 months, was able to do when he arrived in LA last November) for their offense to remain afloat if Gurley fails to return to form, but he could create a huge cap problem that would make re-upping Goff, Kupp, Marcus Peters and a number of other key players that are set to hit free agency in the next couple of years very difficult.
-Hot off a superb Super Bowl performance where they displayed a level of dominance that had only been alluded to for most of last season, the Rams defense attracted a couple of veteran pieces that could help elevate their game on a consistent basis. 5x All-Pro free safety Eric Weddle remains a rangey, instinctive killer in his mid-30's that should serve as the perfect complement to rising star strong safety John Johnson III and while he's definitely a few years past his prime, Clay Matthews should emerge as a productive rotational pass-rushing piece on a fierce front anchored by 2x reigning Defensive Player of the Year Aaron Donald. If the notoriously erratic Peters can play the way he did in the playoffs and Aqib Talib can remain healthy after missing 8 games last season with an ankle injury, this defense should be absolutely monstrous.
Bottom Line:
While there's reasons to be concerned about McVay and their young offensive players ability to bounce back from an embarrassing no-show on the biggest stage professional football has to offer, the Rams are still far too talented overall to not be considered the frontrunners in their division.
San Francisco 49ers
2018 Record: 4-12 (3rd in NFC West)
Head Coach: Kyle Shanahan (3rd season)
Notable Additions: OLB Dee Ford, RB Tevin Coleman, ILB Kwon Alexander
Notable Departures: P Bradley Pinion, WR Pierre Garcon, RB Alfred Morris
-Oh how the plight of Jimmy Garoppolo has changed in the past 12 months. Shortly after Garoppolo arrived in San Francisco via a stunning trade from the Patriots in October 2017, he instantly became a sensation-leading the 49ers to a 5-0 finish that helped earn him a 5 year/$137.5 mil extension from the team the following offseason. That deafening buzz coming into 2018 quieted down to a whimper after Garoppolo struggled immensely out of the gate (59.6 CMP%, 718 YDS, 5 TD, 3 INT) then tore his ACL at the end of a Week 3 blowout loss to the Chiefs.
This injury has now completely muddied Garoppolo's long-term prospects with the 49ers. ACL tears are notoriously difficult for quarterbacks to bounce back from already, but when you pair that with the insane amount of pressure being placed upon him to come back and dominate after such a poor showing last season, and you have yourself a potentially dire situation brewing in the Bay Area.
His alarmingly dismal preseason debut (1/10, 0 YDS and an INT) against the Broncos a few weeks back has added even more juice to the increasingly popular belief that Garoppolo will get cut if this season doesn't go well. As absurd as it sounds considering the deal they essentially just handed him, I can't say I disagree with this sentiment. The 49ers can void his contract after this season with minimal cap damage and even if his struggles are primarily caused by trying to get back into the rhythm of the game after missing so much time, there's a very real chance they begin to reconsider his ability to transform into a franchise QB and decide to use the high draft pick they are likely to obtain from a failed season to select a top prospect in next year's draft. If this doomsday scenario were to come to fruition for Garoppolo, he would join Robert Griffin III, Vince Young and Tim Tebow atop the list of quickest falls from grace for a quarterback in the past 15 years.
-If Garoppolo falters, Kyle Shanahan could very well be joining him on the bus out of Santa Clara. Outside of the aforementioned 5 game stretch where Garoppolo was unconscious, Shanahan's tenure with the 49ers has basically just been an extension of the overthinking antics that served as the catalyst for a certain massive blown Super Bowl lead while he was the OC with the Falcons. Yet another year of gross incompetence just won't be acceptable for a franchise that has been stuck in a rut since 2014 and I expect Jed York or John Lynch (if he's not fired as well) to promptly cut Shanahan loose if they lose 10+ games again for a 3rd straight season.
-A significant defensive overhaul was long overdue for the 49ers. They've struggled to replace the magnificent corps (Patrick Willis, NaVorro Bowman, Aldon Smith, Justin Smith) they had during Jim Harbaugh's time with the team and 2018 marked a new-low for the unit as they mustered underwhelming numbers (37 sacks, 7 takeaways, 27.2 points allowed per game) pretty much across the board. The problem with trying to add pieces to this group is that Lynch hasn't exactly proven himself as a terrific evaluator of defensive talent during his time as GM (Solomon Thomas, who was selected 3rd overall in 2017, has looked like an all time bust through 2 seasons) and nothing he did in 2019 is likely to change that perception.
Their opening free agency splash of signing inside linebacker Kwon Alexander to a huge deal (4 years/$54 mil/$27 mil guaranteed) was a truly astonishing transaction that was only eclipsed in WTF-inducing boldness by the historic payday the Raiders gave Trent Brown. Alexander's raw tackling output may look impressive (380 in 46 career games), but he's a horrific run defender with a track record of inexcusable fundamental sloppiness (his 78 missed tackles over the past 4 seasons is 2nd most in the league during that span) that also happens to be coming off a torn ACL.
Even the more sensible moves (trading for Dee Ford, drafting Nick Bosa) are pretty scary. Ford is erratic player that just happens to be coming off a career year (his 13 sacks last year account for nearly half of his career total) and by suffering a hamstring strain and ankle sprain without even taking a single snap thus far outside of practice, Bosa's injury concerns coming out of Ohio State have already followed him to the pros. Failing to bring in any reliable veteran secondary help to put alongside the rapidly aging Richard Sherman, the somehow still employed Jimmie Ward and questionable 3rd year pro Ahkello Witherspoon puts a bow on this head-scratching attempt to rebuild this long-failing group.
Something needed to be done considering how bad this group has been of late,but just because you brought in plenty of bodies doesn't mean the results are going to be any better and I'd be surprised if that didn't prove to be the case here.
-At a position that is in desperate need of some additional starpower now that Rob Gronkowski has hung it up, George Kittle appears to be on the verge of joining Travis Kelce and Zach Ertz in the very small club of elite NFL tight ends. Amassing 1,377 YDS with 3 different quarterbacks under center in 2018 is one of the most impressive accomplishments I've ever seen in the NFL and I don't expect what he did last season to go down as just a remarkable one-off. He's a dynamic receiving threat with speed, steady hands and an after-the-catch ability that's better than most traditional wideout that should further benefit from the lack of proven firepower projected to head up the rest of the receiving corps (Dante Pettis, Deebo Samuel, Jalen Hurd) this season. Even with the slew of questions surrounding Garoppolo's ability to produce, Kittle should be among the league leaders in receiving once again in 2019.
-While they should ultimately prove to be fine from a purely football perspective with the well-rounded duo of Tevin Coleman and Matt Brieda heading up their rushing attack, it's hard not to feel for Jerick McKinnon. The 27-year old running back tore his ACL during practice 6 days before last year's season opener and due to a string of post-surgery complications, will be missing all of 2019 as well. As of right now, it's completely conceivable that McKinnon never plays a regular season down for the team that inked him to a 4 year/$30 mil deal in March 2018. Just a brutal break for a guy who showed some real promise during his time with the Vikings.
Bottom Line:
With a quarterback coming off of a major injury, a defense that doesn't really have a whole lot of talent and a coach that has yet to prove he can string together wins on a consistent basis, the 49ers could revert back to the uncontrollable dumpster fire they were just a few short years ago prior to Shanahan's arrival.
Seattle Seahawks
2018 Record: 10-6 (2nd in NFC West)
Head Coach: Pete Carroll (10th season)
Notable Additions: DE Jadeveon Clowney, DE Ezekiel Ansah, DT Al Woods
Notable Departures: S Earl Thomas, WR Doug Baldwin (retired), DE Frank Clark
-The relatively unexpected trade the Seahawks swung for Jadeveon Clowney on Saturday has a chance to greatly change the trajectory of this defense. Prior to this deal, there was a lot of uncertainty surrounding who was going to step into the top edge rusher role that was left vacant when they dealt Frank Clark to the Chiefs in April.
Rookie L.J. Collier is facing a steep learning curve as he battles back from a high ankle sprain that kept him out for just about the entirety of training camp, Quinton Jefferson hasn't been anything more than a passable rotational player in his 3 seasons with the team and while he easily boasts the best pass-rushing resume on the roster (48 sacks in 6 seasons), consistency has alluded Ezekiel Ansah throughout his career.
Clowney's arrival solves a lot of those problems as he instantly slides into Clark's spot on the line and provides the Seahawks with a feared, multi-faceted disruptor on a front that desperately needed a veteran with a proven track record. This may only prove to be a short-term solution since Clowney is playing on the franchise tag and the Seahawks can't negotiate a long-term deal with him until after the season, but considering the cheap price tag (a 3rd round pick, veteran journeyman edge rusher Barkevious Mingo, 2nd year outside linebacker Jacob Martin), this was a sharp move by John Schneider that should provide this entire group with a notable boost this season.
-Several lingering injuries forced Doug Baldwin to prematurely retire in May. While he might not be fortunate enough to get enshrined in Canton one day, Baldwin was a tough, consistently productive wideout who had a knack for shining brightest when his team needed him the most. The stabilizing presence he provided Russell Wilson and the rest of this offense with over the past 8 seasons will be sorely missed.
With Baldwin now out of the equation, the Seahawks are kind of reeling at the receiver position. Outside of explosive endzone magnet Tyler Lockett, there's absolutely no proven commodities in this receiving corps. Their current depth chart behind Lockett consists of incumbent #3 wideout David Moore-who started 7 games last season, career #4 option Jaron Brown, practice squad hero Malik Turner whose only appeared in 6 NFL games and a trio of raw rookies (D.K. Metcalf, Gary Jennings Jr., John Ursua) all fighting to see snaps.
Making matters worse is that Moore, who was projected to be the #2 wideout behind Lockett, suffered a hairline fracture in his arm that should keep out until at least mid-October. Wilson may be a special talent that is better equipped than most to maximize the output of sketchy talent surrounding him, but even the best quarterbacks need reliable pass-catchers to help them succeed. How this receiver situation plays out could ultimately determine the Seahawks fate as a playoff contender in the always ultracompetitive NFC.
-Don't let his 4.9 YPC average deceive you, Rashaad Penny wasn't much of a factor at all in 2018. The 1st round pick simply couldn't cease control of the starting job from Chris Carson, who thrived as the workhorse back (1,151 YDS and 9 TD's on 247 carries) behind a greatly-improved Seahawks line, and only mustered 94 total touches in 14 games.
Unsurprisingly after such an uneventful rookie campaign, the bust projection that had been surrounding Penny from the jump intensified with many people questioning why the Seahawks used a high draft pick on a running back when Carson was already on the roster and they had more pressing needs (defensive end, cornerback, wide receiver) that could've been addressed with the #27 overall pick.
Penny has a golden opportunity to change the narrative surrounding him in 2019. OC Brian Schottenhiemer has alluded to the fact that he wants to establish a Saints-type dynamic that utilizes 2 lead backs. Even though Penny would conceivably be the 1B option behind Carson in this arrangement, this would represent a huge uptick in playing time. The already run-heavy Seahawks could be leaning even heavier on the ground game given their potential woes at the receiver position and if Penny can build off the decent output he had with minimal touches, he should turn into a valuable contributor in this offense. Considering the comical amount of touches (461) he received during his last 2 years at San Diego State, his shelf life is likely to be short even by running back standards, so if he doesn't produce this season with the practical guarantee of an increased role in place, who knows if he ever will.
Bottom Line:
As flawed as their roster is, the Seahawks quarterback play and coaching alone should be strong enough to keep them in the playoff mix.
Projected Standings:
1.Los Angeles Rams (10-6)
2.Seattle Seahawks (9-7)
3.San Francisco 49ers (5-11)
4.Arizona Cardinals (5-11)
