Way Too Early Oscar Predictions: 2019 Edition

Fall film festival season has briefly paused as the big three (Telluride, Toronto, Venice) have all wrapped up and the next big one (New York) doesn't kick off until next Friday. Early buzz from the titles that have already premiered on the circuit hasn't established any true frontrunners in what is believed to be an ultracompetitive year, especially in the lead actor and actress categories. Fear not people because that lack of clarity isn't going to stop me from making some way too early Oscar predictions. As always, it needs to be noted that several high profile contenders (Little Women, The Irishman, 1917, Bombshell, Dark Waters) have yet to have a public screening and the prospective field could fluctuate significantly once they do. After sifting through the early reviews and looking at the trends of past years, here's what I came up for prospective nominees in the top categories. 

* indicates the projected winner

Best Picture:
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
The Farewell
Ford v. Ferrari
The Irishman  
Joker
Jojo Rabbit
Just Mercy
Little Women
Marriage Story*
Once Upon a Time in... Hollywood

Best Director:
Noah Baumbach (Marriage Story)
Marielle Heller (A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood)
James Mangold (Ford v. Ferrari)
Martin Scorsese (The Irishman)
Quentin Tarantino (Once Upon a Time in... Hollywood)*

Best Actor:
Leonardo DiCaprio (Once Upon a Time in... Hollywood)
Adam Driver (Marriage Story)*
Michael B. Jordan (Just Mercy)
Joaquin Phoenix (Joker)
Jonathan Pryce (The Two Popes)

Best Actress:
Cynthia Erivo (Harriet)
Scarlett Johansson (Marriage Story)
Saiorse Ronan (Little Women)
Charlize Theron (Bombshell)
Renee Zellweger (Judy)*

Best Supporting Actor:
Christian Bale (Ford v. Ferrari)
Tom Hanks (A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood)*
Anthony Hopkins (The Two Popes)
Jamie Foxx (Just Mercy)
Brad Pitt (Once Upon a Time in.. Hollywood)

Best Supporting Actress:
Laura Dern (Marriage Story)*
Jennifer Lopez (Hustlers)
Florence Pugh (Little Women)
Margot Robbie (Once Upon a Time in... Hollywood)
Suzhen Zhao (The Farewell)

Best Original Screenplay:
The Farewell
Ford v. Ferrari
Marriage Story*
Once Upon a Time in... Hollywood
Parasite

Best Adapted Screenplay:
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood*
The Irishman
Little Women
Joker
Just Mercy

Best Animated Feature:
Frozen 2
How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
Missing Link 
Toy Story 4*
Weathering with You

Best International Feature Film:
Dear Son
Les Misérables 
Monos
Pain and Glory
Parasite*

Way Too Early Oscar Predictions (2017 Edition)

Believe it or not, this week marks the unofficial beginning of Hollywood's awards season. The start of this always intriguing 3-month stretch of the cinematic calendar means that it's time for clowns like myself to dawn our premature prediction hats and drop a list of the films and individuals that we believe the Academy will chose to bless with nominations this year. Below you'll find my way-too-early predictions for the nominees and winners in every major Oscar category. Hope you enjoy this collection of speculation-driven predictions and be sure to check back in the coming weeks/months for some (slightly) more educated guesses.

Note: There are a handful of potential Oscar contenders (The Post, Untitled Paul Thomas Anderson Project, All the Money in the World, The Greatest Showman, The Man Who Invented Christmas, Wonder) that didn't screen at the Venice, Telluride or Toronto Film Festivals that could shake up the field dramatically once they receive public screenings.

*indicates the projected winner
Best Picture:
Blade Runner 2049
Call Me by Your Name
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
Lady Bird
Mudbound
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri* 
The Post

Best Director:
Guillermo Del Toro (The Shape of Water)* 
Greta Gerwig (Lady Bird)
Luca Guadagnino (Call Me by Your Name)
Martin McDonagh (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
Christopher Nolan (Dunkirk)

Best Actor:

Christian Bale (Hostiles)
Timothee Chalamet (Call Me By Your Name)

Daniel Day-Lewis (Untitled Paul Thomas Anderson Project)
Tom Hanks (The Post)

Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour)*

Best Actress:
Sally Hawkins (The Shape of Water)*
Frances McDormand (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)

Margot Robbie (I, Tonya)
Saoirse Ronan (Lady Bird)
Meryl Streep (The Post) 

Best Supporting Actor:
Willem Dafoe (The Florida Project)
Armie Hammer (Call Me By Your Name)
Jason Mitchell (Mudbound)
Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)*

Michael Shannon (The Shape of Water)

Best Supporting Actress:
Hong Chau (Downsizing)
Allison Janney (I, Tonya)
Melissa Leo (Novitiate)
Laurie Metcalf (Lady Bird)*

Octavia Spencer (The Shape of Water)

Best Animated Feature:
The Breadwinner
Coco
Ferdinand 
The Lego Batman Movie
Loving Vincent* 

Way Too Early Oscar Predictions

This time of year is what movie fanatics like myself live for. The biggest buzz-generating film festivals (Telluride, Venice, Toronto) have passed and the frontrunners for the year-end awards have started to solidify. In the spirit of this magical season, I thought it would be fun to use the word-of-mouth flood out of the major film festivals and general industry buzz to put together some early guesses for how the Oscars will shake out in February. It should be noted that a number of possible contenders (Silence, Fences, Hidden Figures, Live by Night, The Founder, Miss Sloane, Patriots Day, Rules Don't Apply, Gold) have yet to be publicly screened, so the makeup of this field could be significantly altered by the time December rolls around. Without further ado, here are my way too early predictions for the 89th Academy Awards.


Best Picture:
Arrival
Fences
Jackie
La La Land
Loving
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight 
Silence
And the Winner Is.....: La La Land
La La Land has been the darling of every festival its screened at and that level of universal acclaim paired with the type of Old Hollywood backdrop that the Academy consistently fawns over makes Damien Chazelle's original musical the overwhelming favorite to win Best Picture this year.  

Best Actor:
Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
Andrew Garfield, Silence
Ryan Gosling, La La Land
Tom Hanks, Sully
Denzel Washington, Fences

And the Winner Is...: Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
2016's Best Actor field is uncharacteristically thin, which makes this an ideal year to award a hardened veteran actor like Affleck that has been largely (and in my eyes, criminally) underappreciated for the duration of his career for a performance that is being hailed as his best-to date. 

Best Actress:
Amy Adams, Arrival
Annette Bening, 20th Century Women

Ruth Negga, Loving
Natalie Portman, Jackie
Emma Stone, La La Land 

And the Winner is: Emma Stone, La La Land
On the contrary, the Best Actress field is the deepest its been since at least 2010. I can honestly say that all five of these women have a shot at taking home Oscar gold, but I'm going to give Stone the slight edge due to the momentum she's picked up after her upset Best Actress win at the Venice Film Festival in September.

Best Supporting Actor:
Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea
Liam Nesson, Silence
Peter Saarsgard, Jackie
Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals
And the Winner is: Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
If I were to place a bet on one award winner right now, it would be this one. Moonlight has positioned itself as one of this year's strongest awards contenders and no one else in this category has come anywhere close to matching the praise that Ali has received for his performance.

Best Supporting Actress:
Viola Davis, Fences
Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women
Naomie Harris, Moonlight
Nicole Kidman, Lion
Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea 
And the Winner Is: Naomie Harris, Moonlight
It wouldn't shock me at all if Davis or Williams ended up winning, but I believe this year's Oscars are going to be about awarding lesser-known actors and as a Britain-bred character actress that hasn't gained much traction in American cinema, Harris fits that bill to a T.  

Best Director:
Damien Chazelle, La La Land
Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea 
Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
Martin Scorsese, Silence
Denis Villenevue, Arrival 
And the Winner Is: Damien Chazelle, La La Land
Yet another pretty open field with a nice blend of established powerhouse filmmakers and promising up-and-comers, but Chazelle has the edge right now. Judging from the small amount of footage that's currently floating around the internet, you can tell that Chazelle has given La La Land a distinct tone and visual style that should really resonate with voters.  

Best Animated Feature:
Finding Dory
Kubo & the Two Strings 
Miss Hokusai
Moana
Zootopia
And the Winner is: Zootopia 
Zootopia has all of the components needed to win (Disney-backing, excellent reviews, thought-provoking messages that are bound to go over your 6-year old's head) this award and unless Moana goes down as an instant classic, I can't see a scenario where this doesn't win.