92nd Annual Academy Award Predictions

I'm not going to front, the Oscars appear destined to be pretty uninteresting this year. This perceived lack of excitement has nothing to do with the nominees themselves. I'd actually say that this is one of the better overall groups of nominees in recent memory, which is indicative of the tremendous quality of the movies released in 2019. My qualms have everything to do with the complete lack of drama surrounding the ceremony. While there's always an undeniable degree of predictability to the Oscars, this year's edition is particularly egregious with the winners of just about every notable award being the closest thing to a lock that they can possibly be before the presenters open up the envelope. Here are the films and individuals I expect to walk home with gold statues on Sunday night.    

Best Picture:
Nominees:
1917
Ford v. Ferrari 
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Little Women
Marriage Story
Once Upon a Time in... Hollywood
Parasite

And the Winner Is... 1917
Best Picture offers far more intrigue than any of the other major awards since it's the only one of the bunch where the Academy has a history of deviating from the crowd. This year the potential "surprise" winners are Once Upon a Time in.. Hollywood-which fits right into the "Hollywood loves movies about itself" cliché and Parasite-a reported favorite among the younger Academy voters that would also allow them to atone for the perceived slight Roma received in this category last year. However, they almost always go the safe route and with its straightforward story of heroism, 1917 fits that bill better than any of the other nominees.    

Best Actor:
Nominees:
Antonio Banderas (Pain and Glory)
Leonardo DiCaprio (Once Upon a Time in... Hollywood)
Adam Driver (Marriage Story) 
Joaquin Phoenix (Joker)
Jonathan Pryce (The Two Popes)

And the Winner Is...: Joaquin Phoenix 
The same four people have won the acting honors at every single major awards show, so there's not going to be a lot of in-depth analysis being tossed around here. Phoenix's showy performance in this highbrow take on the origin story of an iconic comic book character is the perfect excuse to give one of the finest actors working today his first Oscar.

Best Actress:
Nominees:
Cynthia Erivo (Harriet)
Scarlett Johansson (Marriage Story)
Saoirse Ronan (Little Women)
Charlize Theron (Bombshell)
Renee Zellweger (Judy)

And the Winner Is...: Renee Zellweger
Zellweger has lapped everyone else in this category a hundred times over at this point. The triumphant comeback tour she's been on these past few months will conclude on the highest possible note when she picks up her second Oscar for her universally acclaimed portrayal of Judy Garland.  

Best Supporting Actor:
Nominees:
Tom Hanks (A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood)
Anthony Hopkins (The Two Popes)
Al Pacino (The Irishman)
Joe Pesci (The Irishman)
Brad Pitt (Once Upon a Time in.. Hollywood)

And the Winner Is...: Brad Pitt
Apparently all you need to do to win Best Supporting Actor is appear in a Quentin Tarantino movie. Barring some kind of shocking late surge from Joe Pesci or Al Pacino, Pitt appears poised to become the third consecutive QT collaborator nominated in this category (Christoph Waltz won for both Inglorious Basterds and Django Unchained) to take home the award. Anybody who wants to be rewarded with Oscar gold for playing second fiddle in Tarantino's reported final film should start forming an orderly queue ASAP.

Best Supporting Actress:
Nominees:
Kathy Bates (Richard Jewell)
Laura Dern (Marriage Story)
Scarlett Johansson (Jojo Rabbit)
Florence Pugh (Little Women)
Margot Robbie (Bombshell)

And the Winner Is...: Laura Dern
Wrapping up this shoo-in portion of the ceremony is Dern-who is miraculously the only member of the Marriage Story cast that has been able to turn the substantial buzz they received at the beginning of the season into a trophy case full of awards. Since Driver and Johansson are going to go home empty handed, I'm going to treat Dern's well-earned win as an honorary award for the entire ensemble.

Best Director:
Nominees:
Bong Joon-Ho (Parasite)
Sam Mendes (1917)
Todd Phillips (Joker)
Martin Scorsese (The Irishman) 
Quentin Tarantino (Once Upon a Time in... Hollywood)

And the Winner Is...: Sam Mendes
While Bong Joon-Ho has gained some steam in recent weeks, it would be pretty shocking to see Mendes lose at this point after winning the top honor from the Director's Guild-who has agreed with the Academy all but once since 2003 (Ang Lee's 2012 win for Life of Pi was the lone deviation). By making a long take-driven war film that puts the audience literally right in the trenches of World War I, Mendes pulled off the type of unbelievable technical wizardry that this award was designed to honor.  

Other Categories:
Best Original Screenplay: Once Upon a Time in.. Hollywood
Best Adapted Screenplay: Little Women
Best Animated Feature: Toy Story 4
Best International Feature: Parasite
Best Documentary Feature: American Factory
Best Cinematography: 1917
Best Editing: Ford v. Ferrari 
Best Original Score: Joker
Best Original Song: "I'm Gonna Love Me Again" (Rocketman)
Best Makeup and Hairstyling: Bombshell
Best Costume Design: Little Women
Best Production Design: Once Upon a Time in... Hollywood
Best Sound Mixing: 1917
Best Sound Editing: 1917
Best Visual Effects: 1917
Best Animated Short: Hair Love
Best Documentary Short: Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone
Best Live Action Short: Brotherhood

Way Too Early Oscar Predictions: 2019 Edition

Fall film festival season has briefly paused as the big three (Telluride, Toronto, Venice) have all wrapped up and the next big one (New York) doesn't kick off until next Friday. Early buzz from the titles that have already premiered on the circuit hasn't established any true frontrunners in what is believed to be an ultracompetitive year, especially in the lead actor and actress categories. Fear not people because that lack of clarity isn't going to stop me from making some way too early Oscar predictions. As always, it needs to be noted that several high profile contenders (Little Women, The Irishman, 1917, Bombshell, Dark Waters) have yet to have a public screening and the prospective field could fluctuate significantly once they do. After sifting through the early reviews and looking at the trends of past years, here's what I came up for prospective nominees in the top categories. 

* indicates the projected winner

Best Picture:
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
The Farewell
Ford v. Ferrari
The Irishman  
Joker
Jojo Rabbit
Just Mercy
Little Women
Marriage Story*
Once Upon a Time in... Hollywood

Best Director:
Noah Baumbach (Marriage Story)
Marielle Heller (A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood)
James Mangold (Ford v. Ferrari)
Martin Scorsese (The Irishman)
Quentin Tarantino (Once Upon a Time in... Hollywood)*

Best Actor:
Leonardo DiCaprio (Once Upon a Time in... Hollywood)
Adam Driver (Marriage Story)*
Michael B. Jordan (Just Mercy)
Joaquin Phoenix (Joker)
Jonathan Pryce (The Two Popes)

Best Actress:
Cynthia Erivo (Harriet)
Scarlett Johansson (Marriage Story)
Saiorse Ronan (Little Women)
Charlize Theron (Bombshell)
Renee Zellweger (Judy)*

Best Supporting Actor:
Christian Bale (Ford v. Ferrari)
Tom Hanks (A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood)*
Anthony Hopkins (The Two Popes)
Jamie Foxx (Just Mercy)
Brad Pitt (Once Upon a Time in.. Hollywood)

Best Supporting Actress:
Laura Dern (Marriage Story)*
Jennifer Lopez (Hustlers)
Florence Pugh (Little Women)
Margot Robbie (Once Upon a Time in... Hollywood)
Suzhen Zhao (The Farewell)

Best Original Screenplay:
The Farewell
Ford v. Ferrari
Marriage Story*
Once Upon a Time in... Hollywood
Parasite

Best Adapted Screenplay:
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood*
The Irishman
Little Women
Joker
Just Mercy

Best Animated Feature:
Frozen 2
How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
Missing Link 
Toy Story 4*
Weathering with You

Best International Feature Film:
Dear Son
Les Misérables 
Monos
Pain and Glory
Parasite*

91st Annual Academy Award Predictions

With no host and the nixing of several proposed creative decisions (introducing a Best Popular Film category, having less than half of the Best Original Song nominees perform during the ceremony, announcing a handful of awards during commercial breaks) after significant outcry from people in the industry as well as the general public, the leadup to the 91st Annual Academy Awards has been uncharacteristically rocky. This general strangeness ahead of the ceremony has also carried over to the award races, which are as frontrunner-free as the Oscars can possibly be. Here are the films and individuals I expect to emerge from this silly little slice of (potential) Hollywood chaos with gold statues on Sunday night.  

Best Picture:
Nominees:
BlacKkKlansman
Black Panther
Bohemian Rhapsody
The Favourite 
Green Book
Roma
A Star is Born
Vice


And the Winner is...: Roma 
Part of me thinks the Academy is going to try and pander to the general audience they feel they've lost in recent years by giving Best Picture to a crowdpleaser like Green Book or Bohemian Rhapsody. That being said, I'm far too timid to pick against Roma at this point. Yes it's a Spanish-language Netflix production that has polarized audiences and enraged some of the industry's dinosaurs who don't believe streaming service titles should be eligible for film awards because average people can watch them in their living rooms, but it was also arguably the best-reviewed movie of the year and has been widely championed by the non-dinosaur portion of the voting group.

Best Actor:
Nominees:
Christian Bale (Vice)
Bradley Cooper (A Star is Born)
Willem Dafoe (At Eternity's Gate)
Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody)
Viggo Mortensen (Green Book)

And the Winner is....: Christian Bale
Oddsmakers have minted Malek as the favorite after his BAFTA and SAG wins, but I still like Bale here. Bale's transformation into the quietly maniacal Chaney is staggering even by his lofty standards and the batshit insane lengths he went to prepare for the role should help earn him an edge over Malek's less demanding turn as Freddie Mercury.

Best Actress:
Nominees:
Yalitza Aparicio (Roma)
Glenn Close (The Wife)
Olivia Colman (The Favourite)
Lady Gaga (A Star is Born)
Melissa McCarthy (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)

And the Winner is...: Glenn Close
To be completely honest, I think everyone besides McCarthy has a legit shot of winning here. Close, Colman and Gaga each have at least one major award win for their roles and Aparicio is a first time actor who serves as the anchor for the Best Picture favorite. Ultimately, I think it'll be Close coming out on top in this ultracompetitive field. The Academy tends to hand out at least one award to a widely respected actor whose never won before and since she has the most noms (6 prior to this one) without a win of any individual nominated, she seems very likely to be that lucky soul this year (sorry Amy Adams, your time will come eventually).  

Best Supporting Actor:
Nominees:
Mahershala Ali (Green Book)
Adam Driver (BlacKkKlansman)
Sam Elliott (A Star is Born)
Richard E. Grant (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)
Sam Rockwell (Vice)

And the Winner is...: Mahershala Ali
This is the only award in this weird year that I would feel completely comfortable betting on. Ali is the only actor that has swept the major ceremonies up to this point and it would take a large contingent of previously silent anti-Green Book voters for him to not end up with his second Oscar in the last three years.

Best Supporting Actress:
Nominees:
Amy Adams (Vice)
Marina de Tavria (Roma)
Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk)
Emma Stone (The Favourite)
Rachel Weisz (The Favourite)

And the Winner is...: Regina King
King's status as a lock has faded thanks to Rachel's Weisz's BAFTA win and the lack of a nomination at the SAG Awards. Despite the certainty of her winning going down a bit in recent weeks, King has still picked up more accolades than the rest of the field combined coming into Oscar night and boasts the distinction of being the only person in this category that has been widely pegged as the MVP of the movie they starred in. Plus after surprisingly snubbing it for Best Picture, the Academy probably feels like they owe If Beale Street Could Talk an award or two.

Best Director:
Nominees:
Alfonso Cuaron (Roma)
Spike Lee (BlacKkKlansman)
Yorgos Lanthimos (The Favourite)
Adam McKay (Vice)
Pawel Pawlikowski (Cold War)

And the Winner is...: Alfonso Cuaron
Best Director tends to celebrate flashiness more than any other award and no one dazzled more industry folks with their visual flare, shot selection and overall craft in 2018 than Cuaron. The look and feel of Roma is a large part of why its been so acclaimed, which makes Cuaron a near-lock to add yet another Oscar to his crowded trophy case.

Other Predictions:
Best Original Screenplay: The Favourite
Best Adapted Screenplay: BlacKkKlansman
Best Animated Feature: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
Best Foreign Language Film: Roma
Best Documentary Feature: Free Solo
Best Cinematography: Roma
Best Original Score: Black Panther
Best Original Song: "Shallow" (A Star is Born)
Best Film Editing: Vice
Best Costume Design: The Favourite
Best Makeup and Hairstyling: Vice
Best Production Design: The Favourite
Best Sound Editing: Bohemian Rhapsody
Best Sound Mixing: Bohemian Rhapsody 
Best Visual Effects: First Man
Best Live Action Short Film: Marguerite 
Best Animated Short Film: Weekends
Best Documentary-Short Subject: Black Sheep

90th Annual Academy Award Predictions

After a longer-than-usual wait thanks to the Winter Olympics, Hollywood's biggest night is roughly 48 hours away. Here are the people and films I expect to walk away with Oscar gold this year.

Best Picture:

Nominees:

Call Me by Your Name

Darkest Hour

Dunkirk

Get Out

Lady Bird

Phantom Thread 

The Post

The Shape of Water

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

And the Winner is...: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
For the second straight year, I don't think this category is the stone cold lock its being perceived to be. Overall Oscar nom leader The Shape of Water has gained a pretty substantial wave of momentum over the past few weeks and there's also an outside chance that the younger and more diverse group of newly-minted Academy members might want to let their impact be known right away by voting for either Lady Bird or Get Out. However, I'm still going to give the slight edge to Three Billboards because its not as inherently strange as The Shape of Water or mainstream-friendly as Lady Bird and Get Out plus its won every single top honor its been nominated for thus far.  

Best Actor:

Nominees:

Timothee Chalamet (Call Me by Your Name)

Daniel Day-Lewis (Phantom Thread)

Daniel Kaluuya (Get Out)

Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour)

Denzel Washington (Roman J. Israel, Esq.)

And the Winner is...: Gary Oldman
This has been a lock since the trailer for Darkest Hour came out last summer. A beloved veteran actor successfully bringing an iconic historical figure to life on the big screen is a foolproof recipe for earning a gold statue, especially in a field that's as thin as this one.

Best Actress:

Nominees:

Sally Hawkins (The Shape of Water)

Frances McDormand (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)

Margot Robbie (I, Tonya)

Saiorse Ronan (Lady Bird) 

Meryl Streep (The Post)

And the Winner is....: Frances McDormand
Out of all the acting categories, I feel like this one easily has the most upset potential. Hawkins pulled off one of 2017's most challenging roles as a mute woman in The Shape of Water while Robbie and Ronan turned in performances that are widely considered to be the best of their respective careers to-date. However, McDormand is an industry icon who hasn't headlined a film in nearly a decade and her peers will more than likely want to reward her most acclaimed piece of acting since at least Almost Famous.   

Best Supporting Actor:

Nominees:

Willem Dafoe (The Florida Project)

Woody Harrelson (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)

Richard Jenkins (The Shape of Water)

Christopher Plummer (All the Money in the World)

Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
And the Winner is..... Sam Rockwell
Even with the intense blowback that his character's story arc has received from some audiences and critics since the beginning of awards season, Rockwell is in prime position to win his first Oscar. Like Oldman, Rockwell is the type of well-respected yet underappreciated actor that the Academy loves to reward and his role is significantly showier than any of the other nominees in this category.

Best Supporting Actress:
Mary J. Blige (Mudbound)
Allison Janney (I, Tonya)
Lesley Manville (Phantom Thread)
Laurie Metcalf (Lady Bird)
Octavia Spencer (The Shape of Water)

And the Winner is....: Allison Janney
Best Supporting Actor/Actress Oscars are pretty frequently given to actors that portray memorable antagonists (Christoph Waltz in Inglorious Basterds, J.K. Simmons in Whiplash, Mo'Nique in Precious) and Janney should become the latest member of this club come Sunday night. Janney's gripping turn as Tonya Harding's abusive alcoholic mother has earned her a large collection of awards over the past couple months and there's no reason to believe that reign of dominance is going to end on Oscar night.

Best Director:
Paul Thomas Anderson (Phantom Thread)
Guillermo del Toro (The Shape of Water)
Greta Gerwig (Lady Bird)
Christopher Nolan (Dunkirk)
Jordan Peele (Get Out)
And the Winner is....: Guillermo del Toro
There's a contingent of people out there that believe Greta Gerwig is going to pull off the upset, but as tight as her direction was, Lady Bird seems like too straightforward of a film in terms of setting, scale, etc. to win an award like this. del Toro helmed a beautiful, grandiose visual feast that made cinephiles swoon and I would be absolutely stunned if anyone else walked away with this award.

Other categories:
Best Animated Feature Film: Coco
Best Foreign Language Feature Film: A Fantastic Woman
Best Documentary Feature: Last Man in Aleppo
Best Live Action Short Film: DeKalb Elementary
Best Animated Short Film: Dear Basketball
Best Documentary Short Subject: Heroin(e)
Best Original Screenplay: Lady Bird
Best Adapted Screenplay: Call Me by Your Name
Best Cinematography: Blade Runner 2049
Best Original Score: Phantom Thread
Best Production Design: The Shape of Water
Best Original Song: Mudbound
Best Sound Editing: Dunkirk
Best Sound Mixing: Dunkirk
Best Makeup and Hairstyling: Darkest Hour
Best Costume Design: Phantom Thread
Best Film Editing: Baby Driver
Best Visual Effects: Blade Runner 2049

Way Too Early Oscar Predictions (2017 Edition)

Believe it or not, this week marks the unofficial beginning of Hollywood's awards season. The start of this always intriguing 3-month stretch of the cinematic calendar means that it's time for clowns like myself to dawn our premature prediction hats and drop a list of the films and individuals that we believe the Academy will chose to bless with nominations this year. Below you'll find my way-too-early predictions for the nominees and winners in every major Oscar category. Hope you enjoy this collection of speculation-driven predictions and be sure to check back in the coming weeks/months for some (slightly) more educated guesses.

Note: There are a handful of potential Oscar contenders (The Post, Untitled Paul Thomas Anderson Project, All the Money in the World, The Greatest Showman, The Man Who Invented Christmas, Wonder) that didn't screen at the Venice, Telluride or Toronto Film Festivals that could shake up the field dramatically once they receive public screenings.

*indicates the projected winner
Best Picture:
Blade Runner 2049
Call Me by Your Name
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
Lady Bird
Mudbound
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri* 
The Post

Best Director:
Guillermo Del Toro (The Shape of Water)* 
Greta Gerwig (Lady Bird)
Luca Guadagnino (Call Me by Your Name)
Martin McDonagh (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
Christopher Nolan (Dunkirk)

Best Actor:

Christian Bale (Hostiles)
Timothee Chalamet (Call Me By Your Name)

Daniel Day-Lewis (Untitled Paul Thomas Anderson Project)
Tom Hanks (The Post)

Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour)*

Best Actress:
Sally Hawkins (The Shape of Water)*
Frances McDormand (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)

Margot Robbie (I, Tonya)
Saoirse Ronan (Lady Bird)
Meryl Streep (The Post) 

Best Supporting Actor:
Willem Dafoe (The Florida Project)
Armie Hammer (Call Me By Your Name)
Jason Mitchell (Mudbound)
Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)*

Michael Shannon (The Shape of Water)

Best Supporting Actress:
Hong Chau (Downsizing)
Allison Janney (I, Tonya)
Melissa Leo (Novitiate)
Laurie Metcalf (Lady Bird)*

Octavia Spencer (The Shape of Water)

Best Animated Feature:
The Breadwinner
Coco
Ferdinand 
The Lego Batman Movie
Loving Vincent* 

89th Annual Academy Awards Predictions

The grand finale of Hollywood's award season is only 3 days away.  Here are the films and people that I expect to be walking away with Oscar gold on Sunday night as well as a look at what my ballot would look like if I had a vote.

Best Picture
Nominees:
Arrival
Fences 
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
Hidden Figures
La La Land
Lion
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight 

And the Winner is....: La La Land
Call me crazy, but I don't think this is the lock of the century that many people are making it out to be. Given the backlash that stemmed from the "#OscarsSoWhite" controversy over the past two years, I wouldn't be the least surprised if the Academy voted for Moonlight as a way of apologizing for their recent misdeeds. That being said, I still think that the Hollywood setting and its status as a feel-good movie in a turbulent political climate makes La La Land the favorite to be this year's Best Picture winner.  

Best Actor
Nominees:
Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge
Ryan Gosling, La La Land
Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic
Denzel Washington, Fences

And the Winner is...: Casey Affleck 
Denzel Washington's upset win at the SAG Awards last month has suddenly turned this into a 2-horse race heading into the Oscars. However, I think the storyline of an unheralded veteran actor in Affleck finally getting the recognition he's long deserved is too compelling for Academy voters to pass up.
  
Best Actress
Nominees:
Isabelle Huppert, Elle
Ruth Negga, Loving
Natalie Portman, Jackie
Emma Stone, La La Land
Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins

And the Winner is....: Emma Stone 
Stone's breezy, spellbinding performance has been one of the catalysts for the La La Land mania that's currently sweeping the nation and she's also won every major award leading up to the Oscars. Plus the Academy owes her after failing to recognize her incredible performance in Birdman a couple of years ago.

Best Supporting Actor
Nominees:
Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea
Dev Patel, Lion     
Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals

And the Winner is....: Mahershala Ali
Out of all the awards being handed out at this ceremony, this is the least suspenseful IMO. This has been Ali's award to lose since Moonlight debuted to rave reviews at Telluride last September and there is just no way in hell that anyone else in this category will be able to overcome the tidal wave of momentum he's built up over the past five months. 

Best Supporting Actress
Nominees:
Viola Davis, Fences
Naomie Harris, Moonlight
Nicole Kidman, Lion
Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures
Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea 

And the Winner is...: Viola Davis
Come Sunday Night, Davis will finally get to add an Oscar to her already overflowing trophy case. Paramount lobbied for Davis in the supporting actress category because they knew there was no way she would lose and that smart decision by the studio's brass will result in a long-overdue Academy Award for one of Hollywood's brightest talents. 

Best Director
Nominees: 
Damien Chazelle, La La Land
Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge
Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
Denis Villeneuve, Arrival

And the Winner is...: Damien Chazelle
Yet another winner that's basically carved in stone. The work Chazelle did with staging all of the moving parts that are involved with La La Land's treasure trove of elaborate song-and-dance numbers is exactly the type of technically-proficient direction that this award was designed to reward.   

Other Predictions:
Best Original Screenplay: Manchester by the Sea
Best Adapted Screenplay: Moonlight
Best Animated Feature Film: Zootopia
Best Documentary Feature: 13th
Best Foreign Language Film: The Salesman
Best Cinematography: La La Land
Best Score: La La Land
Best Original Song: "City of Stars", La La Land
Best Costume Design: Jackie
Best Production Design: La La Land
Best Makeup and Hairstyling: Star Trek Beyond
Best Visual Effects: The Jungle Book
Best Film Editing: La La Land
Best Sound Editing: La La Land
Best Sound Mixing: La La Land
Best Animated Short: Piper
Best Live Action Short: Timecode
Best Documentary Short: Joe's Violin

My Personal Ballot: 
(Note: I haven't seen the following nominated films: 13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi, 20th Century Women, Allied, Doctor Strange, Elle, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them, Hidden Figures, I Am Not Your Negro, Jackie, Jim: The James Foley Story, Land of Mine, Life, Animated, Lion, The Lobster, Loving, A Man Called Ove, Moana, My Life as a Zucchini, The Red Turtle, The Salesman, Silence, Tanna, Toni Erdmann, Trolls)

Best Picture: Manchester by the Sea
Best Actor: Casey Affleck
Best Actress: Emma Stone
Best Supporting Actor: Jeff Bridges
Best Supporting Actress: Naomie Harris
Best Director: Kenneth Lonergan
Best Original Screenplay: Manchester by the Sea
Best Adapted Screenplay: Arrival
Best Animated Feature Film: N/A 
Best Documentary Feature: 13th
Best Foreign Language Film: N/A
Best Cinematography: La La Land
Best Score: Moonlight
Best Original Song: "Audition (The Fools Who Dream)", La La Land
Best Costume Design: Florence Foster Jenkins  
Best Production Design: Arrival
Best Makeup and Hairstyling: Star Trek Beyond
Best Visual Effects: Deepwater Horizon
Best Film Editing: Arrival
Best Sound Editing: Hacksaw Ridge
Best Sound Mixing: Hacksaw Ridge
Best Animated Short: N/A
Best Live Action Short: N/A
Best Documentary Short: N/A      

89th Academy Award Nomination Predictions

The nominations for the 89th Academy Awards are set to be announced on Tuesday via a global live stream from the Samuel Goldwyn Theater in Beverly Hills, California at approximately 8:20 A.M. EST. Here are the names I believe you'll hear Brie Larson, Jennifer Hudson and Academy President Cheryl Boone Issacs call tomorrow morning.

Best Picture:
Arrival
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
Hidden Figures
Fences
La La Land
Lion
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight 

Locks: Arrival, La La Land, Manchester by the Sea, Moonlight
Toss-Ups: Hacksaw Ridge, Hidden Figures, Hell or High Water, Fences, Lion 
Other contenders: 20th Century Women, Florence Foster Jenkins, Jackie, Loving, Nocturnal Animals, Silence, Sully

Best Actor:
Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge
Ryan Gosling, La La Land
Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic
Denzel Washington, Fences
 
Locks: Casey Affleck, Ryan Gosling, Denzel Washington
Toss-Ups: Andrew Garfield, Viggo Mortensen
Other contenders: Joel Edgerton (Loving), Andrew Garfield (Silence), Jake Gyllenhaal (Nocturnal Animals), Tom Hanks (Sully), Ryan Reynolds (Deadpool)

Best Actress:
Amy Adams, Arrival
Isabelle Huppert, Elle
Natalie Portman, Jackie
Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins
Emma Stone, La La Land

Locks: Natalie Portman, Meryl Streep, Emma Stone
Toss-Ups: Amy Adams, Isabelle Huppert
Other contenders: Annette Benning (20th Century Women), Emily Blunt (The Girl on the Train), Jessica Chastain (Miss Sloane), Taraji P. Henson (Hidden Figures), Ruth Negga (Loving), Hailee Steinfeld (The Edge of Seventeen)

Best Supporting Actor:
Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea
Dev Patel, Lion 
Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Nocturnal Animals

Locks: Mahershala Ali, Dev Patel
Toss-Ups: Jeff Bridges, Lucas Hedges, Aaron Taylor-Johnson
Other contenders: Hugh Grant (Florence Foster Jenkins), Simon Helberg (Florence Foster Jenkins), Liam Nesson (Silence), Michael Shannon (Nocturnal Animals)

Best Supporting Actress:
Viola Davis, Fences
Naomie Harris, Moonlight
Nicole Kidman, Lion
Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures
Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea

Locks: Viola Davis, Naomie Harris, Michelle Williams
Toss-Ups: Nicole Kidman, Octavia Spencer
Other contenders: Greta Gerwig (20th Century Women), Greta Gerwig (Jackie), Janelle Monae (Hidden Figures)

Best Director:
Damien Chazelle, La La Land
Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge
Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea 
Denis Villeneuve, Arrival

Locks: Damien Chazelle, Barry Jenkins, Kenneth Lonergan, Denis Villeneuve
Toss-Ups: Mel Gibson
Other contenders: Garth Davis (Lion), Tom Ford (Nocturnal Animals), Theodore Melfi (Hidden Figures), Martin Scorsese (Silence), Denzel Washington (Fences)

Best Original Screenplay:
Captain Fantastic
Hell or High Water
La La Land
Manchester by the Sea 
Zootopia

Best Adapted Screenplay:
Arrival
Fences 
Hidden Figures
Lion 
Moonlight

Best Animated Feature:
Finding Dory
Kubo and the Two Strings
Moana
The Red Turtle
Zootopia

Best Cinematography:
Arrival
Hell or High Water
La La Land 
Moonlight
Nocturnal Animals

Best Foreign Language Film:
It's Only the End of the World
Land of Mine
My Life as a Zucchini  
The Salesman
Toni Erdmann

Best Documentary Feature:
13th
Gleason
I Am Not Your Negro
The Ivory Game
Weiner

Best Editing:
Hacksaw Ridge
La La Land
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight
Silence

Best Makeup and Hairstyling:
Deadpool
Florence Foster Jenkins
Star Trek Beyond

Best Costume Design:
Allied
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Florence Foster Jenkins
Jackie
La La Land

Best Original Score:
La La Land
Lion
Moonlight
Nocturnal Animals
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

Best Original Song:
Hidden Figures
La La Land
Moana
Sing Street
Trolls

Best Visual Effects:
Arrival
Deepwater Horizon 
Doctor Strange
The Jungle Book
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

Best Sound Mixing:
Arrival
Deepwater Horizon
Hacksaw Ridge
La La Land
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

Best Sound Editing:
Arrival
Deepwater Horizon
Doctor Strange
Hacksaw Ridge
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

My Oscar Predictions

It's the biggest night of the year for film tonight. Here are my thoughts on tonight's awards.

Best Picture
Nominees:
The Social Network
127 Hours
Inception
Black Swan
Toy Story 3
The Fighter
True Grit
The King's Speech
The Kids Are All Right
Winter's Bone

#of nominated films seen: 8/10
Will Win: The Social Network
Should Win: Inception

I think The Social Network will be taking home Best Picture. It's won most of the other top awards including the Golden Globe. Also the Academy loves movies that make a cultural impact and The Social Network did just that. I think Inception should take the award, it was the most original film of 2010 and my favorite out of the bunch nominated. That being said, I would be fine with just about anything that I have seen winning with the exception of the pretentious, underwhelming The Kids Are All Right.

Best Actor
Nominees:
Colin Firth-The King's Speech
James Franco-127 Hours
Javier Bardem-Bitiuful
Jesse Eisenberg-The Social Network
Jeff Bridges-True Grit

# of nominated performances seen: 3/5
Will Win: Colin Firth
Should Win: James Franco

Colin Firth is a lock to win. I haven't seen the film, but I really don't see him losing. All the nominated performances I have seen are great, but James Franco's performance was the soul of 127 Hours. His performance was emotionally deep and really captured the human spirit. I would be delighted if we won.

Best Actress
Nominees:
Annette Benning-The Kids Are All Right
Natalie Portman-Black Swan
Nicole Kidman-Rabbit Hole
Jennifer Lawrence-Winter's Bone
Michelle Williams-Blue Valentine

# of nominated performances seen: 2/5
Will Win: Natalie Portman
Should Win: Natalie Portman

Natalie Portman gave the single best performance of 2010. It would be an outrage if she didn't win.

Best Supporting Actor
Nominees:
Christian Bale-The Fighter
Jeremy Renner-The Town
Mark Ruffalo-The Kids Are All Right
Geoffrey Rush-The King's Speech
John Hawkes-Winter's Bone

# of nominated performances seen: 3/5
Will Win: Christian Bale
Should Win: Christian Bale

Christian Bale was outstanding. He had me convinced he was a crackhead. He is the odds-on favorite and rightfully so.

Best Supporting Actress
Nominees:
Amy Adams-The Fighter
Melissa Leo-The Fighter
Helena Bonham Carter-The King's Speech
Haliee Steinfeld-True Grit
Jacki Weaver-Animal Kingdom

# of performances seen: 3/5
Will Win: Melissa Leo
Should Win: Amy Adams

Melissa Leo was great, but I think Amy Adams was better. Either way, they gave the two best performances in this category and I won't be disappointed in the least bit if Leo wins.

Best Director
Nominees:
David Fincher-The Social Network
Tom Hooper-The Kings Speech
Joel and Ethan Cone-True Grit
Darren Aronofsky-Black Swan
David O.Russell-The Fighter

#of nominated films seen: 4/5
Will Win: David Fincher
Should Win: Darren Aronofsky

Fincher is another lock. He did do a good job bringing the story of Facebook to the screen. That being said, Darren Aronofsky mesmerizing direction of Black Swan should be the winner here. His artistic brilliance really made Black Swan come alive.