89th Annual Academy Awards Predictions

The grand finale of Hollywood's award season is only 3 days away.  Here are the films and people that I expect to be walking away with Oscar gold on Sunday night as well as a look at what my ballot would look like if I had a vote.

Best Picture
Nominees:
Arrival
Fences 
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
Hidden Figures
La La Land
Lion
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight 

And the Winner is....: La La Land
Call me crazy, but I don't think this is the lock of the century that many people are making it out to be. Given the backlash that stemmed from the "#OscarsSoWhite" controversy over the past two years, I wouldn't be the least surprised if the Academy voted for Moonlight as a way of apologizing for their recent misdeeds. That being said, I still think that the Hollywood setting and its status as a feel-good movie in a turbulent political climate makes La La Land the favorite to be this year's Best Picture winner.  

Best Actor
Nominees:
Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge
Ryan Gosling, La La Land
Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic
Denzel Washington, Fences

And the Winner is...: Casey Affleck 
Denzel Washington's upset win at the SAG Awards last month has suddenly turned this into a 2-horse race heading into the Oscars. However, I think the storyline of an unheralded veteran actor in Affleck finally getting the recognition he's long deserved is too compelling for Academy voters to pass up.
  
Best Actress
Nominees:
Isabelle Huppert, Elle
Ruth Negga, Loving
Natalie Portman, Jackie
Emma Stone, La La Land
Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins

And the Winner is....: Emma Stone 
Stone's breezy, spellbinding performance has been one of the catalysts for the La La Land mania that's currently sweeping the nation and she's also won every major award leading up to the Oscars. Plus the Academy owes her after failing to recognize her incredible performance in Birdman a couple of years ago.

Best Supporting Actor
Nominees:
Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea
Dev Patel, Lion     
Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals

And the Winner is....: Mahershala Ali
Out of all the awards being handed out at this ceremony, this is the least suspenseful IMO. This has been Ali's award to lose since Moonlight debuted to rave reviews at Telluride last September and there is just no way in hell that anyone else in this category will be able to overcome the tidal wave of momentum he's built up over the past five months. 

Best Supporting Actress
Nominees:
Viola Davis, Fences
Naomie Harris, Moonlight
Nicole Kidman, Lion
Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures
Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea 

And the Winner is...: Viola Davis
Come Sunday Night, Davis will finally get to add an Oscar to her already overflowing trophy case. Paramount lobbied for Davis in the supporting actress category because they knew there was no way she would lose and that smart decision by the studio's brass will result in a long-overdue Academy Award for one of Hollywood's brightest talents. 

Best Director
Nominees: 
Damien Chazelle, La La Land
Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge
Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
Denis Villeneuve, Arrival

And the Winner is...: Damien Chazelle
Yet another winner that's basically carved in stone. The work Chazelle did with staging all of the moving parts that are involved with La La Land's treasure trove of elaborate song-and-dance numbers is exactly the type of technically-proficient direction that this award was designed to reward.   

Other Predictions:
Best Original Screenplay: Manchester by the Sea
Best Adapted Screenplay: Moonlight
Best Animated Feature Film: Zootopia
Best Documentary Feature: 13th
Best Foreign Language Film: The Salesman
Best Cinematography: La La Land
Best Score: La La Land
Best Original Song: "City of Stars", La La Land
Best Costume Design: Jackie
Best Production Design: La La Land
Best Makeup and Hairstyling: Star Trek Beyond
Best Visual Effects: The Jungle Book
Best Film Editing: La La Land
Best Sound Editing: La La Land
Best Sound Mixing: La La Land
Best Animated Short: Piper
Best Live Action Short: Timecode
Best Documentary Short: Joe's Violin

My Personal Ballot: 
(Note: I haven't seen the following nominated films: 13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi, 20th Century Women, Allied, Doctor Strange, Elle, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them, Hidden Figures, I Am Not Your Negro, Jackie, Jim: The James Foley Story, Land of Mine, Life, Animated, Lion, The Lobster, Loving, A Man Called Ove, Moana, My Life as a Zucchini, The Red Turtle, The Salesman, Silence, Tanna, Toni Erdmann, Trolls)

Best Picture: Manchester by the Sea
Best Actor: Casey Affleck
Best Actress: Emma Stone
Best Supporting Actor: Jeff Bridges
Best Supporting Actress: Naomie Harris
Best Director: Kenneth Lonergan
Best Original Screenplay: Manchester by the Sea
Best Adapted Screenplay: Arrival
Best Animated Feature Film: N/A 
Best Documentary Feature: 13th
Best Foreign Language Film: N/A
Best Cinematography: La La Land
Best Score: Moonlight
Best Original Song: "Audition (The Fools Who Dream)", La La Land
Best Costume Design: Florence Foster Jenkins  
Best Production Design: Arrival
Best Makeup and Hairstyling: Star Trek Beyond
Best Visual Effects: Deepwater Horizon
Best Film Editing: Arrival
Best Sound Editing: Hacksaw Ridge
Best Sound Mixing: Hacksaw Ridge
Best Animated Short: N/A
Best Live Action Short: N/A
Best Documentary Short: N/A      

89th Academy Award Nomination Predictions

The nominations for the 89th Academy Awards are set to be announced on Tuesday via a global live stream from the Samuel Goldwyn Theater in Beverly Hills, California at approximately 8:20 A.M. EST. Here are the names I believe you'll hear Brie Larson, Jennifer Hudson and Academy President Cheryl Boone Issacs call tomorrow morning.

Best Picture:
Arrival
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
Hidden Figures
Fences
La La Land
Lion
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight 

Locks: Arrival, La La Land, Manchester by the Sea, Moonlight
Toss-Ups: Hacksaw Ridge, Hidden Figures, Hell or High Water, Fences, Lion 
Other contenders: 20th Century Women, Florence Foster Jenkins, Jackie, Loving, Nocturnal Animals, Silence, Sully

Best Actor:
Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge
Ryan Gosling, La La Land
Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic
Denzel Washington, Fences
 
Locks: Casey Affleck, Ryan Gosling, Denzel Washington
Toss-Ups: Andrew Garfield, Viggo Mortensen
Other contenders: Joel Edgerton (Loving), Andrew Garfield (Silence), Jake Gyllenhaal (Nocturnal Animals), Tom Hanks (Sully), Ryan Reynolds (Deadpool)

Best Actress:
Amy Adams, Arrival
Isabelle Huppert, Elle
Natalie Portman, Jackie
Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins
Emma Stone, La La Land

Locks: Natalie Portman, Meryl Streep, Emma Stone
Toss-Ups: Amy Adams, Isabelle Huppert
Other contenders: Annette Benning (20th Century Women), Emily Blunt (The Girl on the Train), Jessica Chastain (Miss Sloane), Taraji P. Henson (Hidden Figures), Ruth Negga (Loving), Hailee Steinfeld (The Edge of Seventeen)

Best Supporting Actor:
Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea
Dev Patel, Lion 
Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Nocturnal Animals

Locks: Mahershala Ali, Dev Patel
Toss-Ups: Jeff Bridges, Lucas Hedges, Aaron Taylor-Johnson
Other contenders: Hugh Grant (Florence Foster Jenkins), Simon Helberg (Florence Foster Jenkins), Liam Nesson (Silence), Michael Shannon (Nocturnal Animals)

Best Supporting Actress:
Viola Davis, Fences
Naomie Harris, Moonlight
Nicole Kidman, Lion
Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures
Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea

Locks: Viola Davis, Naomie Harris, Michelle Williams
Toss-Ups: Nicole Kidman, Octavia Spencer
Other contenders: Greta Gerwig (20th Century Women), Greta Gerwig (Jackie), Janelle Monae (Hidden Figures)

Best Director:
Damien Chazelle, La La Land
Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge
Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea 
Denis Villeneuve, Arrival

Locks: Damien Chazelle, Barry Jenkins, Kenneth Lonergan, Denis Villeneuve
Toss-Ups: Mel Gibson
Other contenders: Garth Davis (Lion), Tom Ford (Nocturnal Animals), Theodore Melfi (Hidden Figures), Martin Scorsese (Silence), Denzel Washington (Fences)

Best Original Screenplay:
Captain Fantastic
Hell or High Water
La La Land
Manchester by the Sea 
Zootopia

Best Adapted Screenplay:
Arrival
Fences 
Hidden Figures
Lion 
Moonlight

Best Animated Feature:
Finding Dory
Kubo and the Two Strings
Moana
The Red Turtle
Zootopia

Best Cinematography:
Arrival
Hell or High Water
La La Land 
Moonlight
Nocturnal Animals

Best Foreign Language Film:
It's Only the End of the World
Land of Mine
My Life as a Zucchini  
The Salesman
Toni Erdmann

Best Documentary Feature:
13th
Gleason
I Am Not Your Negro
The Ivory Game
Weiner

Best Editing:
Hacksaw Ridge
La La Land
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight
Silence

Best Makeup and Hairstyling:
Deadpool
Florence Foster Jenkins
Star Trek Beyond

Best Costume Design:
Allied
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Florence Foster Jenkins
Jackie
La La Land

Best Original Score:
La La Land
Lion
Moonlight
Nocturnal Animals
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

Best Original Song:
Hidden Figures
La La Land
Moana
Sing Street
Trolls

Best Visual Effects:
Arrival
Deepwater Horizon 
Doctor Strange
The Jungle Book
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

Best Sound Mixing:
Arrival
Deepwater Horizon
Hacksaw Ridge
La La Land
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

Best Sound Editing:
Arrival
Deepwater Horizon
Doctor Strange
Hacksaw Ridge
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

Way Too Early Oscar Predictions

This time of year is what movie fanatics like myself live for. The biggest buzz-generating film festivals (Telluride, Venice, Toronto) have passed and the frontrunners for the year-end awards have started to solidify. In the spirit of this magical season, I thought it would be fun to use the word-of-mouth flood out of the major film festivals and general industry buzz to put together some early guesses for how the Oscars will shake out in February. It should be noted that a number of possible contenders (Silence, Fences, Hidden Figures, Live by Night, The Founder, Miss Sloane, Patriots Day, Rules Don't Apply, Gold) have yet to be publicly screened, so the makeup of this field could be significantly altered by the time December rolls around. Without further ado, here are my way too early predictions for the 89th Academy Awards.


Best Picture:
Arrival
Fences
Jackie
La La Land
Loving
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight 
Silence
And the Winner Is.....: La La Land
La La Land has been the darling of every festival its screened at and that level of universal acclaim paired with the type of Old Hollywood backdrop that the Academy consistently fawns over makes Damien Chazelle's original musical the overwhelming favorite to win Best Picture this year.  

Best Actor:
Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
Andrew Garfield, Silence
Ryan Gosling, La La Land
Tom Hanks, Sully
Denzel Washington, Fences

And the Winner Is...: Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
2016's Best Actor field is uncharacteristically thin, which makes this an ideal year to award a hardened veteran actor like Affleck that has been largely (and in my eyes, criminally) underappreciated for the duration of his career for a performance that is being hailed as his best-to date. 

Best Actress:
Amy Adams, Arrival
Annette Bening, 20th Century Women

Ruth Negga, Loving
Natalie Portman, Jackie
Emma Stone, La La Land 

And the Winner is: Emma Stone, La La Land
On the contrary, the Best Actress field is the deepest its been since at least 2010. I can honestly say that all five of these women have a shot at taking home Oscar gold, but I'm going to give Stone the slight edge due to the momentum she's picked up after her upset Best Actress win at the Venice Film Festival in September.

Best Supporting Actor:
Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea
Liam Nesson, Silence
Peter Saarsgard, Jackie
Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals
And the Winner is: Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
If I were to place a bet on one award winner right now, it would be this one. Moonlight has positioned itself as one of this year's strongest awards contenders and no one else in this category has come anywhere close to matching the praise that Ali has received for his performance.

Best Supporting Actress:
Viola Davis, Fences
Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women
Naomie Harris, Moonlight
Nicole Kidman, Lion
Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea 
And the Winner Is: Naomie Harris, Moonlight
It wouldn't shock me at all if Davis or Williams ended up winning, but I believe this year's Oscars are going to be about awarding lesser-known actors and as a Britain-bred character actress that hasn't gained much traction in American cinema, Harris fits that bill to a T.  

Best Director:
Damien Chazelle, La La Land
Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea 
Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
Martin Scorsese, Silence
Denis Villenevue, Arrival 
And the Winner Is: Damien Chazelle, La La Land
Yet another pretty open field with a nice blend of established powerhouse filmmakers and promising up-and-comers, but Chazelle has the edge right now. Judging from the small amount of footage that's currently floating around the internet, you can tell that Chazelle has given La La Land a distinct tone and visual style that should really resonate with voters.  

Best Animated Feature:
Finding Dory
Kubo & the Two Strings 
Miss Hokusai
Moana
Zootopia
And the Winner is: Zootopia 
Zootopia has all of the components needed to win (Disney-backing, excellent reviews, thought-provoking messages that are bound to go over your 6-year old's head) this award and unless Moana goes down as an instant classic, I can't see a scenario where this doesn't win.