Thursday, October 8, 2026

Way Too Early Oscar Predictions: 2026 Edition

Feel free to file this away and throw it in my face if it proves to be wildly inaccurate, but this year's Oscar races are looking a lot clearer than they usually do at this stage of the process. All of the acting categories save for Best Actor already appear to be down to fields of seven or eight contenders for the five nominations while Best Picture is starting to look like a two-horse race between Christopher Nolan's The Odyssey and Spanish epic drama La bola negra-which is aiming to become Netflix's first ever BP winner. Why does there appear to be so much certainty compared to the last few years where chaos reigned? I'm not quite sure, but so many heavy hitters either debuting at Cannes in May or releasing before the fall certainly feels like it played a role.

It needs to be noted that despite my belief that the field already feels relatively settled, there are still a handful of potential contenders out there including Dune: Part Three, The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth, Werwulf and The Mosquito Bowl that have yet to screen publicly that have the potential to shake up the landscape if they generate enough fanfare. With that important caveat now out of the way, here are my way too early predictions for the 2026 Oscars excluding Best Original Song and the Short Film categories. 

 *Indicates the predicted winner

Best Picture:

All of a Sudden

The Debut

Dune: Part Three

Fjord

The Invite

La bola negra

Obsession

The Odyssey*

Project Hail Mary

Wild Horse Nine

Best Director:

Javier Ambrossi and Javier Calvo, La bola negra

Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine

Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey*

Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three

Olivia Wilde, The Invite

Best Actor:

Matt Damon, The Odyssey 

Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary

John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine* 

Robert Pattinson, Primetime

Andrew Scott, Elsinore 

Best Actress:

Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden

Sandra Hüller, Rose

Julianne Moore, The Debut*

Inde Navarrette, Obsession 

Olivia Wilde, The Invite

Best Supporting Actor:

Andrew Garfield, Artificial 

Paul Giamatti, The Debut*

Guitarricadelafuente, La bola negra

John Leguizamo, The Odyssey 

Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine 

Best Supporting Actress:

Penélope Cruz, La bola negra

Mariana di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine

Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey*

Samantha Morton, The Odyssey

Tao Okamoto, All of a Sudden

Best Adapted Screenplay:

All of a Sudden

The Invite

La bola negra*

The Odyssey

Project Hail Mary

Best Original Screenplay:

Artificial 

Fjord

The Debut

Obsession

Wild Horse Nine*

Best Animated Feature:

Forgotten Island

Ray Gunn

Tangles

Toy Story 5

Wildwood*

Best Documentary Feature:

American Doctor

NAZA

Nuisance Bear

Once Upon a Time in Harlem

You Can See Everything*

Best International Feature:

All of a Sudden

Fjord

La bola negra*

Minotaur

Possible Love

Best Casting:

The Debut

La bola negra

Obsession 

The Odyssey*

Wild Horse Nine

Best Cinematography:

Dune: Part Three

La bola negra

The Odyssey*

Project Hail Mary

Werwulf

Best Film Editing:

Dune: Part Three

La bola negra

The Odyssey*

Project Hail Mary

Wild Horse Nine

Best Original Score:

Behemoth!

Disclosure Day

Dune: Part Three

The Odyssey*

Project Hail Mary

Best Costume Design:

Dune: Part Three

The Odyssey* 

Sense and Sensibility

Werwulf 

Wuthering Heights

Best Makeup and Hairstyling:

Digger

Dune: Part Three

Michael

The Odyssey

Werwulf*

Best Production Design:

Backrooms

Dune: Part Three

The Odyssey*

Project Hail Mary

Werwulf

Best Sound:

Dune: Part Three

Godzilla Minus Zero

Michael

The Odyssey*

Project Hail Mary

Best Visual Effects:

Dune: Part Three

Godzilla Minus Zero

The Odyssey

Project Hail Mary*

Spider-Man: Brand New Day

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