Arizona Cardinals
2020 Record: 8-8 (3rd in NFC West)
Head Coach: Kliff Kingsbury (3rd season)
Notable Additions: C Rodney Hudson, DE J.J. Watt, WR A.J. Green
Notable Departures: WR Larry Fitzgerald, CB Patrick Peterson, RB Kenyan Drake
Biggest Reason for Excitement: Further Offensive Improvements
The arrival of DeAndre Hopkins last season gave Kyler Murray the real receiving weapon he lacked during his rookie campaign in 2019 and they started their on-field relationship on an even better than expected note. With the strong-armed Murray throwing him darts, Hopkins posted the 3rd highest yardage total of his storied career (1,407) while Murray's completion percentage (64.4 in 2019 to 67.2% in 2020), passing YDS (3,722 in 2019 to 3,971 in 2020) and passing TD's (20 in 2019 to 26 in 2020) all increased in year 2 in large part due to Hopkins' reliably strong hands/body control/route running. Combine the arrival of Hopkins with an offensive line that went from bad to average without much changeover (right tackle Kelvin Beachum was the only new starter), and you had a Cardinals team that quietly improved their year-to-year win total by 3 games and finished just shy of clinching the last NFC Wild Card spot.
Heading into 2021, GM Steve Kiem wanted to give their 3rd year signalcaller the best possible chance of to take another step forward in 2021 and he did just that by expanding their offensive warchest. Star center Rodney Hudson should offer them an immediate sizable upgrade to their pass protection, James Conner will join speedster Chase Edmonds in the backfield as he looks to rebound from a really rough season in Pittsburgh last year, rookie Rondale Moore could end up being the lethal underneath receiving option this offense has sorely lacked if he can avoid the injury woes that haunted him at Purdue in the NFL and A.J. Green will look to step into the leadership and occasional clutch pass catching role vacated by the great Larry Fitzgerald-who has all but officially retired from football after 17 seasons. The NFC West is as tight of a division as there is in the league and having a dynamic offense that gives defenses fits gives the Cardinals the best chance of making some noise in it.
Biggest Question Mark: Cornerback
Things weren't exactly looking great for the Cardinals corner group at the beginning of August as the team was struggling to figure out who was going to replace departed starters Patrick Peterson and Dre Kirkpatrick. The situation only got worse last week when Malcolm Butler, who was the clear frontrunner to be their top corner, suddenly retired to tend to an undisclosed personal matter.
Right now, Byron Murphy and Robert Alford are expected to begin the season as the starting corners. Relying on this pairing to slow down any receiver of note should absolutely horrify this team. Murphy's struggles over his inaugural 2 NFL seasons have seen him repeatedly bounce in and out of the starting lineup while Alford hasn't appeared in a regular season game since 2018 after suffering a broken leg and torn pectoral muscle in back-to-back seasons.
Shockingly, the rest of the depth chart may be an even greater cause for concern as their backups are 2 mid-to-late round rookies (Marco Wilson, Tay Gowan) that have a shared weakness of getting overwhelmed too often by receivers downfield and a 2nd year guy (Luq Baroo) that just got waived by the lowly Jaguars 3 weeks ago. Their best bet honestly might just be to throw their versatile linebackers Isaiah Simmons and Zaven Collins back there at this point. Those guys would at least look the part athletically until Tyler Lockett or Cooper Kupp hit them with a late route break that knocks them out of their shoes. Safe to say, this unsettled situation puts their chances of repeating as a top 15 pass defense in serious jeopardy (Budda Baker may be a budding star safety and all, but he can't be everywhere at once).
Key to Reaching Their Ceiling: Kliff Kingsbury Relying Less on Analytics
For the most part, Kliff Kingsbury's transition to the NFL has been smoother than I expected it to be. His modified air raid scheme has been a very good fit for Kyler Murray and the fact that this group ranked 6th in the league in total yards a mere 2 years after they ranked dead last in that area with Mike McCoy and Byron Leftwich running the show is a pretty strong endorsement for his simplified, speed-driven approach to running an offense. However, there is one area that's really holding him back: His obsession with analytics.
The man is such a slave to the data that he can't help but put his foot on the gas by at every possible opportunity. To be fair, the raw numbers would support his decision to regularly go for TD's over FG's and 2 point conversions over extra points as the Cardinals had the 10th best redzone TD% in the league (65.5%) in 2020. However, the failures brought on by Kingsbury's analytical decisionmaking directly resulted in multiple losses (Week 3 versus the Lions, Week 11 versus the Seahawks, Week 12 versus the Patriots). If he had just decided to bring out the kicker for a field goal or extra point in 1 of those instances, this team would've made the playoffs last year.
It's well within the realm of possibility that his failures on this front last season and bringing on the more reliable Matt Prater to replace Zane Gonzalez at kicker will be enough to convince Kingsbury to go for the easier point scoring opportunity more often. But, there's currently zero evidence that failure in some key situations and the addition of a hypothetically better kicker will be enough to get him off the data sauce.
Bottom Line:
Offensively viable and defensively sketchy, the Cardinals just don't feel like they've made enough improvements to catapult past their division rivals.
Los Angeles Rams
2020 Record: 10-6 (2nd in NFC West)
Head Coach: Sean McVay (5th season)
Notable Additions: QB Matthew Stafford, WR DeSean Jackson, RB Sony Michel
Notable Departures: QB Jared Goff, S John Johnson III, CB Troy Hill
Biggest Reason for Excitement: They Still Have the Best Defense in the League
The Rams #1 ranked defense from a year ago took some serious hits ahead of the 2021 season. First and foremost, defensive coordinator Brandon Staley moved across the SoFi Stadium parking lot to become the new Chargers head coach. Then free agency came and saw two of their key secondary starters (John Johnson III, Troy Hill) head to the Browns.
While these losses will certainly be felt, their standing as the best defense in the league is still pretty firm. New DC Raheem Morris is a sharp veteran assistant who did about as good of a job as he possibly could with an injury-ravaged, not particularly talented Falcons group in 2020, Jordan Fuller and David Long have enough skill and upside to admirably step into the vacant strong safety/slot corner roles and most importantly, the rest of their biggest impact players (Aaron Donald, Jalen Ramsey, Darious Williams, Leonard Floyd, Sebastian Joseph-Day, Taylor Rapp) are returning. The level of elite talent and sheer depth of the Rams defense makes them the toughest matchup in the powerhouse NFC West and should go a long way in helping them wrestle to the top of this deep division.
Biggest Question Mark: The Whole Running Back Situation
Losing Cam Akers to a torn Achilles right before training camp started was an absolutely brutal break for the Rams. The 2nd year back was positioned for a full-on breakout 2021 in his 1st full season as a starter after getting really hot late season upon being thrust into a featured role (he put up a pair of 170+ scrimmage YD performances over a 6-game stretch and one of them was in the Wild Card round against the Seahawks). Having the anointed bellcow in an offense that is at its best when they run the hell out of the football go down right before the season starts is going to cause some serious reshuffling in the backfield and at least publicly, Sean McVay has been coy about how he's going to handle it.
The belief in the immediate aftermath of Akers' injury was that Darrell Henderson was going to step in and pretty much just fill that intended workhorse role. Given his familiarity with the system, good burst and solid performance as the on-and-off lead back for much of last season (783 scrimmage YDS and 6 TD's on 154 ouches), it seemed like the sensible choice for McVay to make.
Then things got real murky all of a sudden a couple weeks back when the Rams acquired Sony Michel from the Patriots. A sluggish 2019 campaign where he averaged an awful 3.7 YDS per carry and an injury-shortened 2020 campaign where he ceded his starting job to Damien Harris have sent Michel's stock plummeting, so it's pretty easy to forget about good he was during his rookie campaign in 2018 when he factored heavily into the Patriots 6th Super Bowl title run. A change in location and the guarantee of at least a decent-sized role could be just what Michel needs to return to form.
The cherry on top of this unknown void of a backfield is how, if at all rookie Jake Funk will work into the backfield rotation. Many expected Funk to be cut or exclusively operate as a special teams player before Akers got hurt, but he went on to have a strong camp and his grit, patience and dual-threat ability have reportedly won him a lot of fans in the organization. As silly as it sounds considering Funk's less prestigious credentials, don't be surprised if McVay rolls out a 3-way timeshare to start the season like he did last year-especially considering that Henderson is currently nursing a thumb injury and hasn't practiced in full in almost 3 weeks.
Key to Reaching Their Ceiling: Matthew Stafford Finally Living Up to the Hype
Swapping out Jared Goff for Matthew Stafford at quarterback isn't the guaranteed major upgrade people to seem the think it is. Sure, Stafford's arm talent will allow McVay to diversify his passing game beyond quick slants out of play action, but the harsh reality is that Stafford hasn't accomplished anything of note outside of his 5,000 YD season in 2011. Does some of this have to do with spending his 1st 12 NFL seasons with the cursed, woefully inept Lions organization? Of course, but he shouldn't continue to be let off the hook for his role in contributing to the organization's failure over that time period. Stafford has only mustered 4 TD's and a 63.2 CMP% in his 3 career playoff games and there were several other seasons where his inability to win games (2013, 2015, 2017) when it mattered was the main reason why the Lions failed to make the playoffs.
Just about every potential excuse for Stafford is out the window now that he's with the Rams. Gone are the largely suspect coaches that were holding back his ability to shine. Gone are the defenses that were causing him to come up on the wrong end of shootouts. Gone are the receivers not named Calvin Johnson that couldn't be depended on to stay on the field or make catches when it mattered most. Gone are the offensive lines that couldn't keep him upright. Gone are the feeble rushing attacks that couldn't offer him the support he needed to run a balanced attack.
He's going to war with one of the best rosters in the league for one of the best coaches in the league. If he's really as great as people have anointed him to be over the years, he'll be able to power through this extremely competitive division, pick up that elusive 1st career playoff win and take this Rams team to the championship that allegedly greatly inferior Goff fell just short of winning in 2018.
Bottom Line:
Well-coached and boasting many areas of strength-particularly on defense, the Rams should find themselves in the middle of the playoff hunt yet again.
San Francisco 49ers
2020 Record: 6-10 (4th in NFC West)
Head Coach: Kyle Shanahan (5th season)
Notable Additions: C Alex Mack, DE Samson Ebukam, CB Josh Norman
Notable Departures: CB Richard Sherman, C Weston Richburg (retired), WR Kendrick Bourne
Biggest Reason for Excitement: Nearly All of Their Injured Players from 2020 are a Full-Go to Start 2021
Fred Warner, Arik Armstead, Mike McGlinchey, Laken Tomlinson, Kyle Juzcyzk, Kerry Hyder, Daniel Brunskill, Tarvarius Moore, Jerick McKinnon and Azeez Al-Shaair. These are the only players of note that appeared in 16 games for the 49ers in 2020. The degree of key injuries the 49ers suffered over the course the season was just preposterous as every single starter on both sides of the ball outside of Warner, Armstead, McGlinchey, Tomlinson, Brunskill and Juzcyzk all missed at least 2 games and several key cogs (Nick Bosa, Dee Ford, Richard Sherman, Jimmy Garoppolo) played in just 6 games or less before they were lost for the year. After dealing with that steady stream of misfortunate last year, the bleeding looks to at least have temporarily stopped heading into this season.
All of the aforementioned guys who missed 10+ games last year that are still on the roster along with George Kittle, Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel, Raheem Mostert, Jaquiski Tartt, Dre Greenlaw, Javon Kinlaw and Jason Verrett-who all missed between 3 and 9 games in 2020- will be out there on Sunday afternoon when they take on the Lions in Detroit. This is the best possible news for the 49ers could receive. They were able to win 6 games last season with a decimated, constantly fluctuating roster and a return to something that's closer to what their 2019 NFC Championship Squad had to work with should immediately put them back in the playoff hunt.
Biggest Question Mark: How They're Going to Handle Their Quarterbacks
Jimmy Garoppolo more or less lost his job back in March when the 49ers traded up to get the #3 pick from the Dolphins and Kyle Shanahan subsequently held a pretty blunt press conference where he expressed that Garoppolo just wasn't reliable enough to be their starter anymore. Quite frankly, Shanahan is right. 2019 was his only fully healthy season in the NFL and he's only managed to appear in 9 games during his other 2 full seasons (2018, 2020) as a 49er. Plus Garoppolo's status as a borderline game manager who struggles with downfield throws and crunchtime situations makes him a very unappealing long-term option-particularly at his current $24 million per year salary.
Here's where things complicated for the 49ers: 1: The quarterback they took at #3 was Trey Lance-who has 17 career starts at North Dakota State and has only played in 1 real competitive football game since 2019 as a result of D1-A moving their season to the spring (Lance had already declared for the Draft-making him ineligible to play.) 2: Garoppolo is still around as a result of his aforementioned huge, untradeable cap number and the need to have a veteran stopgap that knows the offense around while Lance gets acclimated to the offense. 3.Shanahan technically still hasn't named a starter yet.
Despite the lack of official word, all signs are pointing to Garoppolo being the Week 1 starter. But the real question is for how long? A month? 8 weeks? The whole year? Realistically, Garoppolo's play and/or one of those dreaded injures popping up yet again will more than likely dictate that. But this is a unique situation among teams who selected QB's in the 1st round of the draft as the 49ers are the only team from that bunch that has an entrenched veteran starter in the mix and Lance is the only top pick that didn't play a full season of college ball last year. Since the options are between a serviceable veteran that's been in the organization since mid-2017 and an intriguing yet extremely raw dual threat young gun who is primed to be the team's next potential franchise QB, this is shaping up to be the exceptionally rare no lose unsettled QB situation.
Key to Reaching Their Ceiling: Staying Healthy
After 2020, it's hard to say anything else. We just witnessed what this team looks like at far less than 100% for pretty much an entire season and that was still pretty god damn respectable. If Bosa, Kittle, Warner, Aiyuk, Armstead, McGlinchey, Samuel, Ford, Trent Williams, new starting center Alex Mack and the bulk of their very talented core can stay at least reasonably healthy all year long, this team is going to be a problem. They have a deep, quick and strong pass rush, the increasingly rare type of stud inside linebacker in Warner who can tackle, cover and diagnose plays at the line of scrimmage, a reliable offensive line anchored by an elite left tackle, several versatile receiving weapons and running backs who can either bowl over defenders with their power or blow by them with their shiftiness. If they're able to make it to the dance with their health, the rest of the NFC better take notice (the AFC team don't need to worry because Shanahan will happily hand them a comeback Super Bowl win in the 4th quarter with his stellar clock management and flat-out refusal to run the ball.)
Bottom Line:
The 49ers have the talent and depth on both sides of the ball to not only the win NFC West, but the entire conference. However, their high volume of injury-prone players and convoluted QB situation puts them a tick behind both the Seahawks and Rams in their tight divisional hierarchy (for now at least).
Seattle Seahawks
2020 Record: 12-4 (1st in NFC West)
Notable Additions: G Gabe Jackson, TE Gerald Everett, CB Sidney Jones
Notable Departures: OLB K.J. Wright, CB Shaq Griffin, DT Jarran Reed
Biggest Reason for Excitement: A Sean McVay Disciple is Their New Offensive Coordinator
Since Russell Wilson arrived in Seattle, he's only had 2 offensive coordinators: Darrell Bevell and Brian Schottenheimer. If you're familiar with what these clowns have done outside of Seattle, you'd realize that finding success within their system is the strongest sign of Wilson's greatness. Bevell and Schottenheimer are easily in the top tier of blandest and most boneheaded playcallers currently working in this league. Case in point: Bevell opened the door for Malcolm Butler to become a Super Bowl legend by calling a pass play from the 1-YD line when the Patriots had allowed positive yardage on every single one of Marshawn Lynch's carries up to that point in that game while Schottenheimer cost the Seahawks a Wild Card game against the Cowboys in 2018 by refusing to break from his commitment to running the ball until they were down by double digits in the 4th quarter (Chris Carson, Mike Davis and Rashaad Penny combined for 59 YDS on 21 carries and 28 of them came on a single run by Penny). With Schottenheimer getting axed following a 2020 season where the offense faded in a big way down the stretch, Wilson will be entering his 10th pro season with only his 3rd career coordinator. So who is the man that Pete Carroll and John Schneider tapped to be the new architect of their offense? None other than Sean McVay protégé Shane Waldron.
While having ties to McVay clearly doesn't gurantee success (just look at the disaster that Zac Taylor has been in Cincinnati), being embedded with perhaps the greatest offensive mind to emerge since Andy Reid sure as hell isn't going to hurt. Helping Waldron's cause that he isn't going to be the next Taylor is a resume that may just be the most impressive of any McVay disciple to date. The 41-year old has worked alongside McVay since his final year as the OC in Washington in 2016 and since Matt LaFluer exited LA to become the Titans OC ahead of the 2018 season, Waldron served as passing game coordinator. After Taylor exited for Cincy in 2019, he also added QB coach to his responsibilities . Waldron might not any playcalling experience, but he was actively involved with developing the gameplans and schemes alongside McVay-which is more than Taylor can say about his time with the team.
Just imagine what Wilson could do in an offense that isn't vanilla as hell? The degree of trick plays and cool play designs that a creative OC could come up with for a dynamic QB who has elite arm talent and mobility that is still in the middle of his prime is pretty much limitless and if Waldron is even half as good as McVay is at doing those things, the Seahawks offense should be able to fly to heights they've never been able to reach before.
Biggest Question Mark: Who is Going to Play Cornerback
Letting Shaq Griffin walk in free agency was the right call. His entire career in Seattle was defined by unpredictable up-and-down play and that's not the type of player you want as a top corner-especially at the up to almost $14 million per year the Jaguars agreed to pay him.
The issue with Griffin leaving the #1 corner post after 3 seasons is that the Seahawks don't really have a plan to replace him. The drat capital they burned in trades for Jamal Adams, Carlos Dunlap and Gabe Jackson over the past 12 months left them with just 3 picks for this year (1 of which was used to select the raw but intriguing slot corner Tre Brown in the 4th round) and the amount of money they have tied up in Wilson, Adams, Bobby Wagner, Duane Brown and Tyler Lockett kept them from being able to pursue any meaningful free agents.
Incumbents D.J. Reed-who was a nice surprise after replacing the injured Quinton Dunbar in the slot about a quarter of the way through last season and Tre Flowers-who has been mostly a liability through 3 pro seasons-figure to lock down the top 2 spots by default and Brown should see a fair amount of playing time based on the fact that he was a high enough pick to earn the opportunity to see the field right away, but what lies beyond this trio that has been together throughout the offseason process is a complete mystery.
The rest of the depth chart was so unsettled in the final days of the preseason that they went out and added veterans Sidney Jones and Blessaun Austin via a trade and free agency in the past week to round it out. Not only are these last second moves concerning from a common sense "how are they going to learn the system quickly?" standpoint, but the profiles of these two make them pretty sketchy candidates to serve as reliable depth pieces. The talented Jones has been unable to shake the durability concerns that haunted him at the University of Washington in the NFL as he's missed 34 games over 4 seasons (to be fair, 15 of those came during his rookie year in 2017 while he was recovering from the Achilles tear he suffered during his final college season) and Austin couldn't land a spot in a Jets corner room that has Bryce Hall and Brandin Echols as its projected opening day starters.
Pete Carroll-whose specialty during his NFL assistant days was developing DB's-has been able to get the most out of sticky corner situations plenty of times in the past and having a talented trio of safeties (Adams, Quandre Diggs, Ryan Neal) and the best coverage linebacker in football in Wagner in the middle of the defense will take some of the pressure of this untested group, but the potential that their corners could get absolutely smoked on a weekly basis just can't be ignored as the Seahawks aim to brace themselves for a ultracompetitive division race this season.
Key to Reaching Their Ceiling: Giving Russell Wilson Enough Opportunities to be Russell Wilson
I'll start off by saying that Wilson shouldn't be let off the hook for his role in the Seahawks offensive struggles in 2020. The second half of last season was the most jittery, inaccurate and reckless Wilson has ever looked in the pros, and that uncharacteristic play made him severely ineffective when the team needed him most. However, part of the reason why he adapted those bad habits was caused by his lack of faith in the playcalling of Schottenheimer and the banged up offensive line's ability to protect him for long enough to make plays.
Heading into 2021, the Seahawks need to do everything they can to ensure that Wilson gets a legit chance to make the plays he's proven to be capable of making. Waldron has got to do a better job than Schottenheimer did of giving Wilson the ball when it matters most without veering away from their physical rushing attack led by the oft-injured, but still effective Chris Carson, the offensive line-which has the potential to improve with the addition of a sold vet like Jackson on the interior and Damien Lewis a strong bet to make a year 2 leap after a pretty impressive rookie campaign-has got to keep him from getting killed on at least half of his dropbacks and the receivers-who outside of Lockett and D.K Metcalf are all either unproven young players (Freddie Swain, rookie D'wayne Eskridge) or vets entering their 1st year with the team (Gerald Everett)-have got to win their routes and/or pull down as as many catchable targets that come their way as possible. As long as the tendencies that Wilson displayed last year don't become permanent problems, he has what it takes to take this team to the promised land as long as he can get the contributions from his coaches and running mates that just haven't been there often enough since the team's last Super Bowl appearance in 2014.
Bottom Line:
Even with their questionable corner group and offensive line, Russell Wilson and Pete Carroll should be able to keep this team competitive in 2021.
Projected Standings:
1.Seattle Seahawks (11-6)
2.Los Angeles Rams (10-7)
3.San Francisco 49ers (9-8)
4.Arizona Cardinals (7-10)
No comments:
Post a Comment