Way Too Early Oscar Predictions: 2021 Edition

Returning to something that more closely resembles the traditional fall festival season this year has brought back one of cinema's proudest traditions: Hyperbolic praise for films and actors. Maybe it was because people were overjoyed to return to physical screenings in some of the world's most sacred film venues after watching last year's awards contenders in their living rooms or perhaps movie fans are going to be in for a serious treat over the next few months as they plow through one of the deepest slates of high quality award-contending films in recent memory, but the amount of declarations involving words and phrases like "career best", "generational" and "masterpiece" that came out of Venice, Telluride, Toronto and last night's New York Film Festival premiere of  The Tragedy of Macbeth felt significantly higher than usual. 

For the sake of early awards prognostication, all of this heavy enthusiasm makes it even harder to get a read on who/what the strong early contenders are. How can you handicap a race when there about two dozen people and films simultaneously getting crowned as early frontrunners in nearly every major category? Well thankfully, I have no shame in being completely wrong and spent roughly 90 minutes earlier this afternoon trying to figure out who has the highest odds of rising up from of this crowded field and compete for the movie industry's biggest honor.    

As always with things like this, it needs to be noted that several prospective contenders including Don't Look Up, Licorice Pizza, House of Gucci, West Side Story, Nightmare Alley, Tick, Tick... Boom!, A Journal for Jordan, The Harder They Fall, The Unforgiveable and Being the Ricardos have yet to be screened for critics/industry shot callers and the forecast for each of these races could be significantly impacted once they do. Without further ado, here are my way too early predictions for next March's Oscars.       

*indicates the projected winner

Best Picture:

Belfast*

Don't Look Up 

The French Dispatch

King Richard

Licorice Pizza 

Nightmare Alley   

The Power of the Dog

Spencer

The Tragedy of Macbeth

West Side Story

Best Director:

Kenneth Branagh (Belfast)

Jane Campion (The Power of the Dog)

Joel Coen (The Tragedy of Macbeth)*

Guillermo del Toro (Nightmare Alley)

Steven Spielberg (West Side Story)

Best Actor:

Clifton Collins Jr. (Jockey)

Bradley Cooper (Nightmare Alley)

Benedict Cumberbatch (The Power of the Dog)

Will Smith (King Richard)*

Denzel Washington (The Tragedy of Macbeth)

Best Actress:

Jessica Chastain (The Eyes of Tammy Faye)

Olivia Colman (The Lost Daughter)

Penelope Cruz (Parallel Mothers)

Jennifer Hudson (Respect)

Kristen Stewart (Spencer)*

Best Supporting Actor:

Jamie Dornan (Belfast)

Andrew Garfield (The Eyes of Tammy Faye)

Corey Hawkins (The Tragedy of Macbeth)

Ciaran Hinds (Belfast)*

Jesse Plemons (The Power of the Dog)

Best Supporting Actress:

Catriona Balfe (Belfast)

Ariana DeBose (West Side Story)

Kristen Dunst (The Power of the Dog)*

Anjanue Ellis (King Richard)

Frances McDormand (The Tragedy of Macbeth)

Best Original Screenplay:

Belfast*

Don't Look Up

The French Dispatch

King Richard

Licorice Pizza 

Best Adapted Screenplay:

CODA

The Lost Daughter

Nightmare Alley

The Power of the Dog

The Tragedy of Macbeth*

Best Animated Feature:

Encanto*

Luca

The Mitchells vs. the Machines

Raya and the Last Dragon

Sing 2

Best International Feature:

The Hand of God*

A Hero

I'm Your Man

Parallel Mothers

The Worst Person in the World