Arizona Cardinals
2021 Record: 11-6 (2nd in NFC West)
Head Coach: Kliff Kingsbury (4th season)
Notable Additions: WR Marquise Brown, RB Darrel Williams, G Will Hernandez
Notable Departures: OLB Chandler Jones, WR Christian Kirk, ILB Jordan Hicks
Biggest Reason for Excitement: The NFC Got Weaker
After surprising a lot of people with a hot 7-0 start which left as the final unbeaten team in the league last year, the Cardinals fell from grace pretty hard when they finished the year on a 4-7 slide which culminated in an embarrassing 34-11 loss to the division rival Rams in the Wild Card round. Despite this poor finish to the season, the Cardinals had a pretty quiet offseason on the personnel addition. They acquired Marquise Brown from the Ravens on draft night to make up for Christian Kirk's departure in free agency/DeAndre Hopkins 6 game PED suspension to start the year, let Chandler Jones walk without making a serious offer or bringing in a high-end replacement (Jones' vacated spot on the edge will be filled by his former backup Dennis Gardeck-who has 7 career sacks in 4 NFL seasons) and made some low key veteran additions (Will Hernandez, Darrell Williams, Cody Ford, Trayvon Mullen, Nick Vigil) to fill out their roster that aren't going to swing the pendulum too far in either direction.
There is however one piece of great news for a Cardinals team that didn't radically change their roster from last season and will be without their future Hall of Fame WR for almost the first third of the season: the rest of the NFC got notably worse. As a team that got to the playoffs solely off of a hot start, nobody stands to gain more from Russell Wilson leaving Seattle, Davante Adams leaving Green Bay, Matt Ryan leaving Atlanta, the uncertain San Francisco QB situation and whatever the hell is going on in Dallas than them. They're an average-to-above-average team with the same average-to-above average corps and coaches and that degree of continuity gives them an advantage over a lot of the other teams that will be fighting for the wild card scraps in this suddenly top-heavy conference.
Biggest Reason for Concern: Kyler Murray's Work Ethic
Committing to Kyler Murray as a franchise quarterback was an expected move by the Cardinals. He helped put a stop to a woeful run of QB play that followed Carson Palmer's last productive season in 2015 and this team hasn't had a reliable starting QB that was under the age of 35 since Neil Lomax in the 80's. Despite their willingness, the Cardinals were revealed to have some pause about giving the #1 overall pick in the 2019 draft a massive extension after a press leak revealed that the contract contained a clause requiring Murray to commit to "4 hours of independent study" (code for watch film on the opponent) every week. Shortly after this information became public, the Cardinals released a statement making it sound like this was no big deal before revealing they'd removed that language from the contract and Murray hosted a press conference where he fiercely defended his work ethic and bashed the media for daring to question it.
While it's understandable that Murray would be offended by the perception that he isn't a hard worker, it's hard not to read into this situation. The Cardinals wouldn't have put a clause in his big money contract if he was the typical "first one in/last one out" QB and hearing that someone who is viewed as and being paid like an elite QB struggles to watch film is very alarming. If Murray can't be bothered to properly prepare for an opponent, questions begin to rise about the rest of his tendencies. Does he take the time to say work on building a rapport with a new top WR in Brown and a 2nd year guy in Rondale Moore-who is in line to get a heavy increase in snaps while Hopkins is on the shelf? Is he spending an adequate amount of time preparing for key football situations like the 2-minute drill, no huddle and redzone? Can he recognize a look from the defense and audible out of a playcall from the sideline in favor of running something that's better suited to work against a given front? Murray is naturally gifted enough as a thrower and rusher to put together a passable career without putting forth that much extracurricular effort, but he's never going to accomplish anything of note without being diligent in his preparation. Clearly the Cardinals aren't convinced that he's all the way dialed in as he enters his 4th pro season and that's a dangerous situation to be in with a guy that they owe at least $160 million over the next 5 seasons.
Key to Reaching Their Ceiling: Fixing Their Red Zone Offense
For the first 80 yards of the field, the Cardinals were a pretty high-flying offensive machine in 2021. They ranked 8th in total offensive yards as their balanced attack (their rushing and passing offense were both ranked 10th in the league) earned 1st downs and made chunk plays with relative ease. When they worked their way down to the redzone, things got bogged down a bit more. Their redzone offense was ranked 14th overall as they managed to score a TD on just 60% of their trips. Like in the past, this notable decline in offensive productivity once they enter that mystical land where their opponents endzone resides is largely brought on by Kingsbury's playcalling and overall management of these situations.
Whether it's going for it on 4th and goal at the wrong time or simply refusing to get creative with his playcalls, Kingsbury looks like he's routinely in over his skis in the redzone. Instead of dialing up an RPO that takes advantage of Murray's rushing ability or that frees up a big body like Zach Ertz or A.J. Green, he calls a lot of simple HB dives that regularly go nowhere behind the Cardinals average offensive line and shovel passes that rely on YAC. It's just shocking to watch him draw up the same old shit and yield the same results, especially when the team is on the wrong end of the scoreboard. Kingsbury is an alleged offensive guru that has a group of players that were brought in to play in his uptempo spread system and it's beyond time that he proved that by fielding a group that's just as lethal in the redzone as they elsewhere on the field.
Bottom Line:
After a fluky successful 2021, order appears set to return to the desert as the Cardinals set their sights on another average season filled with questionable coaching, up-and-down play from Murray and zero mental toughness.
Los Angeles Rams
2021 Record: 12-5 (1st in NFC West)
Head Coach: Sean McVay (6th season)
Notable Additions: ILB Bobby Wagner, WR Allen Robinson, CB Troy Hill
Notable Departures: OLB Von Miller, T Andrew Whitworth (retired), WR Robert Woods
Biggest Reason for Excitement: Landing More Talent
When a team wins a Super Bowl, they'll usually just add a couple of accomplished aging vets that are eager to win a title to their roster and call it a day. In fairness, the Rams did make one of those signings in Bobby Wagner-who even at 33 provides a massive upgrade over the Ernest Jones and Troy Reeder duo they had starting at inside linebacker last year- but Les "Fuck Them Picks" Snead had loftier ambitions than that.
Snead went shopping in free agency like he was the time that lost the Super Bowl. He kicked things off by acknowledging that Robert Woods was too expensive/old to retain for another year (the ACL tear he suffered last October also had to factor into the decision to move on from him) and Odell Beckham Jr.-who hit free agency in the spring-wouldn't be able to play this year after suffering an ACL tear in the Super Bowl. This meant that the Rams were suddenly in the market for a WR2 and instead of using the luxury of having Cooper Kupp on the roster as a reason to opt for a value option such as DeVante Parker, Russell Gage or Marquez Valdez-Scantling, Snead went out and got the biggest name on the open market in Allen Robinson. Don't let a poor 2021 season with the Bears fool you. Robinson is an elite-level talent that excels at making contested catches and overeager corners looks silly all over the field. Given the production he's put up in the past with Blake Bortles and Mitch Trubisky throwing him the ball, he could end up leading the league in receiving with someone of Matthew Stafford's caliber under center.
While the other moves weren't quite as splashy as the Robinson and Wagner signings, the Rams made multiple other savvy moves to bolster their roster. Getting Troy Hill back to LA after Darious Williams left for a big payday in Jacksonville preserves their standing as one of the best corner groups in the league and despite how integral he was for the franchise over the past 10 seasons, moving from Johnny Hekker-whose numbers had tanked in back-to-back season-in favor of Riley Dixon at punter is the right move.
A challenging cap space situation did that caused them to lose out in the Von Miller sweepstakes and shed some starters/depth pieces (Sebastian Joseph-Day, Austin Corbett, Ogbonnia Okoronkwo, the aforementioned Darious Williams) and Andrew Whitworth finally retiring after a 62-year career will definitely. However, the surplus of depth they've built up throughout this roster along with these new impact players should be able to keep the damage from these personnel losses on their win/loss record to a minimum.
Biggest Reason for Concern: Matthew Stafford's Elbow
Of all the training camp injury reports that surfaced in the past month, the ones involving Matthew Stafford's elbow are among the most concerning. The news broke in early August that the Rams had shut Stafford down from throwing and were closely monitoring his workload after it was revealed that he was dealing with a tendinitis-like injury in his throwing elbow that is usually found in baseball pitchers. Coach Sean McVay even publicly said that he was baffled by the ailment and that he's never seen anything like it in a football player. Both Stafford and McVay have publicly stated that the elbow won't be a concern moving forward, but since Stafford was held out of every preseason game, there's no way to know if that's true or a bullshit PR deflection tactic at this juncture.
While it could very well end up being a pain tolerance issue that doesn't hold Stafford back, it's hard to feel comfortable when the words "unusual" and "lingering" are frequently used to describe an ailment a quarterback is dealing with on their throwing arm. I'm no doctor, but those terms have a tendency to be associated with serious fucking problems. This entire Rams operation is built around Stafford being available (the Rams backup is once again John Wolford-who is best known for starting their 2020 regular season finale after Jared Goff sustained a thumb injury the previous week and has yet to throw a TD on 48 career pass attempts) and playing at a high level, so it's pretty imperative that he's out there slinging the rock at this typical level or this team could be headed for a miserable underachieving season that nobody would've ever predicted as recently as late July.
Key to Reaching Their Ceiling: Not Getting Complacent After Winning a Title
I know this is a real "no shit sherlock" situation, but it's especially crucial for the Rams to not coast off of their success last season. Their absurd talent level in a depleted NFC field will make loafing a bit pretty tempting and while they have the luxury of having more wiggle room than a reigning champion typically, they have to resist urge. There are guys on this team that were already going to the Hall of Fame (Aaron Donald, Jalen Ramsey) before they won a ring that can treat actually winning one as just another notch on their $100,000 designer belt. But you know what really builds a legacy? Winning multiple rings with the same team and corps. Jim Kelly, Bruce Smith and Andre Reed may have ultimately it made to Canton for all they accomplished with the Bills teams that went 0 for 4 in Super Bowls, but their shrines are a lot less shiny than their counterparts from the 80's 49ers and 90's Cowboys teams that have diamond rings to go with their gold jackets and busts. The Rams have the horses, favorable contract situations (aka the key guys are all signed long-term) and relative youth to win additional championships over the new few years and they'll be in the mix to do so as long as they remain hungry, focused and dedicated in their pursuit of the Lombardi Trophy.
Bottom Line:
As long as Matthew Stafford's elbow remains functional, the very well-coached, immensely talented Rams will be back among the title contenders in 2022.
San Francisco 49ers
2021 Record: 10-7 (3rd in NFC West)
Head Coach: Kyle Shanahan (6th season)
Notable Additions: CB Charvarius Ward, S George Odum, WR/KR Ray-Ray McCloud
Notable Departures: C Alex Mack (retired), G Laken Tomlinson, S Jaquiski Tartt
Biggest Reason for Excitement: Kyle Shanahan is Around to Navigate Them Through a Bit of a Turbulent Period
While league circles have been buzzing non-stop about Trey Lance's readiness to take the starting quarterback reigns and their decision to ultimately keep Jimmy Garoppolo around as insurance for Lance after failing to find a trade partner for the 31-year-old veteran, the 49ers have been dealing with a number of additional headaches/potentially concerning situations during the offseason. They're rolling out a whole new starting interior offensive group (2nd year player Aaron Banks and rookie Spencer Burford at guard, career backup Jake Brendel at center) following the retirement of Alex Mack, free agent departure of Laken Tomlinson and benching of Daniel Brunskill, veteran safety Jimmie Ward is out for at least the 4 weeks of the season-which has suddenly inserted 2nd year special teamer Talanoa Hufanga into a starting lineup that is already featuring a new full-time starter in Tarvarius Moore-who missed all of 2021 with an Achilles tear and has only logged 8 career starts (all in 2020 when now ex-49er Jaquiski Tartt was out of the lineup with turf toe) and their interior defensive line depth took another hit with D.J Jones leaving for the Broncos in free agency-which puts more pressure on 2020 1st rounder Javon Kinlaw to step up after an underwhelming start to his career. There is no question that this is a bit of an uncertain, turbulent period for a 49ers team that has been really good of late save for their injury-ravaged 2020 campaign, but fortunately for them they have Kyle Shanahan running the show.
Part of Shanahan's growth into a good head coach has been his positive track record of dealing with adversity. Just last season, he brought this team back from a rough 3-5 start by ripping off a 7-2 finish to the season that included a pair of wins over the Rams and a road OT victory over the Bengals. In that brutal 2020 season, he kept this team competitive in most games (only 3 of their 10 losses were by 10+ points and a 34-17 defeat to the Packers was the only one that exceeded 10) despite having 3 different starting QB's throughout the year, a whopping 16 players on season-ending IR and another dozen or so guys that missed at least half the season with injuries. As long as the bulk of the team's injury-prone stars (Nick Bosa, Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, Mike McGlinchey) can stay healthy, he and his shrinking yet still very talented group of assistants (Demeco Ryans, Bobby Slowik, Anthony Lynn, Corey Undlin, Kris Kocurek, Chris Foerster) should be able to successfully manage the Lance/Garoppolo situation and their influx of new, unproven starters on both sides of the ball without sacrificing wins in the process.
Biggest Reason for Concern: The Trey Lance/Jimmy Garoppolo Dynamic
Ready or not, the time is now for Trey Lance in San Francisco. The team invested too many future draft picks to trade up and select him with the 3rd overall pick in the 2021 draft to have him take another redshirt year behind Garoppolo. Shanahan and John Lynch agreed throughout the offseason process, as they repeatedly asserted that this was Lance's team and they were going to move on from Garoppolo. Then just week, shit got really muddy all of a sudden. After failing to find a trade partner and wanting to avoid the likely worst-case scenario of him landing with the rival Seahawks after they released him, they decided to keep him as a backup. This sudden shocking development added a lot more fuel to the troubling offseason narrative that Lance's arm was struggling to hold up to the rigors of an NFL passing workload and adjust to the speed of the pro game.
Bringing back Garoppolo may provide the 49ers with some additional piece of QB in the interim, but it's opening up the possibility of multiple negative outcomes surrounding Lance's future. If Garoppolo was retained due to Lance's poor offseason performance, that's a sign that the team is experiencing some serious buyer's remorse and are trying to cope with the unwelcome possibility that they gave up all that draft capital to select a guy that just can't hack it as an NFL QB. If Garoppolo's return was simply brought on by a fear of him going to the Seahawks if they released him, they may've created a QB controversy that will do irreputable damage to Lance's psyche after only 2 career starts.
If Lance stinks out of the gate and Shanahan quickly brings out the hook and benches him in favor of Garoppolo, how will the team know if the kid actually stinks? As reasonable as the concerns are surrounding his ability to play in the pros after playing in a simple, run-heavy system at the D1-A level in college, it feels like Lance isn't really getting a chance to prove himself in the league and that's just not fair for a kid that the team was so eager to acquire 17 months ago after the man who's currently looking over his shoulder was deemed to be unfit to remain the starter by the organization.
Key to Reaching Their Ceiling: Deebo Samuel Remaining Healthy
Deebo Samuel wasn't some unheralded talent when he came out of the University of South Carolina in 2019. The kid's versatility as an offensive weapon and ability to make plays on the open field popped on tape and it was pretty clear that he was going to be special at the next level if things broke his way. What prevented Samuel from being a 1st round pick in the 2019 draft was the same thing that prevented other top-tier talents including Rob Gronkowski, Keenan Allen and DK Metcalf from hearing their name called from picks #1-32 earlier in the same decade: Injuries. Between the broken fibula that cost him most of his 2017 season and a whole host of other bang and bruises along the way (ankle sprains, hamstring pulls, foot issues), Samuel spent a ton of time on the sideline in college and spending a 1st round pick on a guy with a track record of durability issues isn't advantageous.
Those durability issues have followed Samuel to the pros as he missed 9 games in 2020 and been a frequent flyer on the injury reports in 2019 and 2021 despite missing just a combined 2 games over those times. However, what else has followed Samuel is his status as an impact player. Samuel cemented himself as a key cog in the 49ers offense right away with 802 receiving YDS and 6 total TD's during his rookie year and after struggling in his injury-shortened 2020, became the heart of the entire operation with his incredible 2021 campaign that saw him score 14 TD's, register 1,770 scrimmage YDS (1,405 receiving, 365 rushing) and average a league-leading 18.2 YDS per reception.
Particularly given the situation with Lance coming in as the new starter that the team appears to have some confidence issues in, it's crucial that Samuel stays healthy. His ability to make plays on the ground and through the air makes him a special, offense-altering weapon that could really help ease the transition process for a young QB. No disrespect to Brandon Aiyuk, Eli Mitchell and the great All-Pro tight end George Kittle, but Samuel is the most indispensable player on this offense and the consequences brought on by him not being out there could be particularly dire for this 49er team that is less proven/deep than they have been over the past few years.
Bottom Line:
As challenging as the whole Trey Lance/Jimmy Garoppolo QB predicament is shaping up to be, the 49ers have more than enough on this roster and coaching staff to overcome this turbulence and remain a winning franchise.
Seattle Seahawks
2021 Record: 7-10 (4th in NFC West)
Head Coach: Pete Carroll (13th season)
Notable Additions: TE Noah Fant, DT Shelby Harris, QB Drew Lock
Notable Departures: QB Russell Wilson, ILB Bobby Wagner, T Duane Brown
Biggest Reason for Excitement: DK Metcalf Signing an Extension
Trading Russell Wilson during the final year of his deal could've given DK Metcalf plenty of incentive to leave the Seahawks in free agency once his rookie deal expired at the end of the season. Considering his age (he turns 25 in December) and talent level, he could go anywhere in the league and avoid the frustration of sticking around in a place that could very well be headed for a rebuild. But despite their currently cloudy future at QB, Metcalf decided to stay loyal to the team that ended his unexpected slide to the tail end of the 2nd round in the 2019 draft by inking a 3-year extension worth up to $72 mil that will keep him in Seattle through the 2025 season. Regardless of whether the Seahawks decide to draft a guy in the 1st round or use the draft capital they acquired from the Broncos in the Wilson trade to acquire a veteran in a trade, having a tough, athletic playmaker like Metcalf in the receiving corps is going to make Seattle an appealing option for any QB they choose to court.
Biggest Reason for Concern: Geno Smith is currently the Starting Quarterback
In the long-term, the Seahawks are taking the right approach to finding a QB. Using the extra draft capital they picked up in the Wilson deal to try and build up their largely thin roster instead of trading for one of the many available vets while also refusing to draft a signalcaller from this questionable draft class was the right move by John Schneider-particularly since they ended up with a few really high upside players (tackle Charles Cross, edge rusher Boye Mafe, running back Kenneth Walker III). The unfortunate trade-off is that choice left them hosting an open competition between Geno Smith-who served as Wilson's backup from 2019-2021 and ex-Bronco Drew Lock-a 2019 2nd round pick who the Seahawks felt compelled to kick the tires on for reasons that likely boil down to the fact that he's cheap and played pretty well at the end of the 2019 season before spectacularly imploding in the subsequent 2 seasons-in camp. Courtesy of his institutional knowledge and Lock's continued struggles, Smith was awarded the job a couple weeks back.
The pluses with Smith begin and end with the fact that he has experience in this system and with these receivers. Smith is one of those guys that is just good enough to justify him staying on an NFL roster, but not good enough to feel good when he's forced into action. His career record as a starter is 13-21 and 8 of those wins came during his rookie campaign with the Jets in 2013 and his passing numbers (6,917 YDS/34 TD's/37 TD's/58.8 CMP%/75.7 QBR) epitomize shoulder shrug-worth mediocrity. An optimist would point to his numbers during his 4 appearances and 3 starts in relief of an injured Wilson last season (702 YDS/5 TD/1 INT/68.4 CMP%/103.0 QBR) as a sign that Geno has improved since he got to the Seahawks, but that sample size is way too small and the team's results weren't nearly good enough (they went 1-3 in the games he appeared in) to draw any really positive conclusions from that stretch of play. He's a stopgap in the purest sense of the word and everyone in the organization will be happy when he goes back to the bench or ends his time in Seattle altogether in 2023.
Key to Reaching Their Ceiling: Securing a Bad Enough Record to Make Landing Their Next Starting QB As Easy as Possible
The only goal for the 2022 Seahawks is to lose enough to secure a high draft pick. Whether they want to use that pick to select Bryce Young, C.J. Stroud or some hotshot that ascends into the 1st round conversation in the next few months or package that pick into a trade for a veteran will be their choice to make next spring, but dropping games is the only way to ensure that they control their own destiny in their QB search.
Making this goal very attainable is their pretty poor roster situation. The offensive line (Damien Lewis, Gabe Jackson, Cross, Jake Curhan, Austin Blythe-the latter 3 being new starters) has the potential to be a mess if Cross struggles as a rookie, Smith isn't capable of willing the team to wins like Wilson did many times during his 10 years here and while adding ex-Bears DC/longtime Vic Fangio understudy Sean Desai to their defensive staff and a couple of nice veteran pieces to their front 7 (Shelby Harris, Uchena Nwosu) should make them better than they were last year, their question marks at corner (they're starting raw rookies Tariq Woolen and Coby Bryant next to incumbent #1 corner Sidney Jones) and at linebacker (Jordyn Brooks has been so-so through 2 seasons and Cody Barton has yet to prove he contribute outside of special teams in the pros) in the wake of Bobby Wagner's exit will likely be enough of a detriment to keep them in the bottom half of the league in most categories. A group with that resume shouldn't be able to win more than 5-6 games in circumstances where the playing field is level and/or the Seahawks aren't purposefully tanking. The 2022 Seahawks have the power to conceivably dictate the next 10-15 years of this franchise just by playing up to the ability level of their roster, so go (and lose) 'Hawks and give this front office another crack at landing a franchise QB.
Bottom Line:
Trading Russell Wilson is launching what will at least be a soft rebuild in Seattle and without strong quarterback play to prop up their flawed roster, the results are going to pretty ugly.
Projected Standings:
1.Los Angeles Rams (12-5)
2.San Francisco 49ers (10-7)
3.Arizona Cardinals (7-10)
4.Seattle Seahawks (5-12)
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