Conference Championship Record: 1-1 (Correct: Eagles Incorrect: Bengals)
Overall Playoff Record: 9-3
Philadelphia Eagles over Kansas City Chiefs:
For the 4th straight year, I have zero confidence in my Super Bowl pick. On paper, this very well could be the most even Super Bowl matchup since Seahawks/Patriots all the way back in 2014. These were the 2 best teams in the league for the vast majority of the season and their paths to the big game were driven by two of the most surefire ways to win games in the NFL: suffocating defense paired with opportunistic, creative offense (Eagles) and a lights out QB that is capable of carrying the team on his shoulders complemented by a smart, aggressive defense that is capable of making plays when they need to (Chiefs).
While Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid have the clear advantage over Jalen Hurts and Nick Sirianni in the ever-important QB/head coach battle, the Eagles have the advantage in most other areas. Mahomes struggled against good pass defenses like the Texans and Broncos this season and this #1 ranked Philly group is notably better/deeper than both of them. Starting outside corner duo Darius Slay and James Bradberry match up well against their top receivers (JuJu Smith-Schuster, Marquez Valdes-Scantling) and they have enough reinforcements with the likes of Chauncey Gardner-Johnson, Marcus Epps, Avonte Maddox and T.J. Edwards to try and limit Travis Kelce's production via the double or triple team or just good old-fashioned physicality at the line of scrimmage before he can get into his route.
On top of that, the Chiefs defense has had some trouble with stopping the run of late (the Jaguars gained 144 YDS on just 19 attempts in the Divisional Round)-which is something that Shane Steichen could really exploit with the 3-pronged rushing attack of Hurts, Miles Sanders and Kenneth Gainwell that drove the Eagles top 5 ground game this season and Steve Spagnuolo's aggressive blitzing that worked so well against the Jaguars and Bengals isn't likely to make as much of an impact against a rock-solid Eagles offensive line that is coming off an otherworldly performance against a 49ers front that has even more pass-rushing firepower than the Chiefs.
What could end up breaking this game for the Eagles is the play of a clearly hobbled Hurts. The lingering shoulder injury that caused him to miss 2 regular season games before he returned for the regular season finale against the Giants has caused him to miss some routine intermediate-to-deep throws that he typically makes at a high clip in all 3 games he's played since returning to action and if the Chiefs are able to build an early lead that forces the fate of the game onto Hurts' arm, the Eagles could be in big trouble. But if their defense shows up and balls out like they have all season and the offense is able to unleash their usual balanced attack, a 2nd Lombardi Trophy should be on its way to Philadelphia.
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