Buffalo Bills
2023 Record: 13-3 (1st in AFC East)
Head Coach: Sean McDermott (7th season)
Notable Additions: DE Leonard Floyd, RB Damien Harris, G Connor McGovern
Notable Departures: ILB Tremaine Edmunds, RB Devin Singletary, G Greg Van Roten
Biggest Reason for Excitement: A Deeper, More Dynamic Running Back Committee
Last season was somewhat revelatory for the Bills offense as they started to find a running game that went beyond having Josh Allen use his monstrous size to bowl over unsuspecting DB's/LB's on broken plays and QB draws. Shockingly, they actually ended up being the 7th ranked rushing offense in the league despite ranking basically right in the middle in attempts (15th to be exact) thanks to rookie James Cook averaging 5.7 YDS her carry in his change-of-pace role, Devin Singletary managing a solid 4.6 YDS per touch as the lead back for the 2nd straight season and Allen managing 6.1 YDS per carry on his 124 rushing attempts.
Despite Singletary exiting for Houston in free agency and not having a natural pass-catcher in their ranks now that Nyhiem Hines is done for the year after being involved in a freak accident where he was struck by a jet ski while sitting idly on his own jet ski, this group could be in even better shape this season. Damien Harris gives them a tough power runner with a pretty strong track record as a goal-line back whose effectiveness the Bills are quite familiar with as they had some real difficulty containing him during his time with the Patriots and even at the advanced RB age of 33, Latavius Murray continues to be a pretty productive north/south runner who slots in great as part of a constantly-rotating committee. Pairing two brute forces who can wear down opposing defenses with a home run-hitting speedster in Cook gives the Bills the ability to unleash a more balanced, dynamic rushing attack that could be very difficult for opposing defenses to slow down or predict.
Biggest Reason for Concern: Their Playoff Failures Over The Past Seasons Snowballing Into Something Bigger That Hurts Them Long-Term
Over the past 5 seasons, the AFC representatives in the Super Bowl have been the New England Patriots, Cincinnati Bengals and Kansas City Chiefs (3x). Despite all of the buzz surrounding the team based on their regular season success and the sheer volume of splashy players they have on their roster, the Bills just haven't been able to make it to the promised land yet. 2022 was supposed to be their year after the entire organization complained so much about their "unfair" overtime loss to the Chiefs in the 2021 Divisional Round-in which they played of some of the most hilariously inept situational defense that you'll ever see in the final 2 possessions that allowed the Chiefs to tie and eventually win the game-that they successfully lobbied to change the playoff overtime rules to guarantee each team gets a possession, but they got massacred by the Bengals in the Divisional Round a week after barely holding off the Skylar Thompson-led Dolphins in the Wild Card round, so they definitely couldn't pin their early exit on the rules this time around.
After 3 straight playoff exits where the common denominator was poor execution when it mattered most, the pressure is on the Bills to deliver on the lofty expectations they've earned since Allen solidified himself as a franchise QB in 2019. With camp on the horizon, the early signs that this will be the season where they come together aren't encouraging. As you may recall, one of the most striking images from the Bills loss to the Bengals was Stefon Diggs trying to rally the troops after they had a brutal start on both sides of the ball. His efforts were all for naught as the team continued to hang their hands in shame and got steamrolled for the remainder of the game. Diggs' frustration from that playoff no-show has clearly not disappeared as he's made several vague but pointed public criticisms where he questioned the heart of his team on social media and even skipped out on the mandatory OTA's in the spring over an issue with the team that "wasn't contract-related". If someone that's as vital to the success of this team as Diggs is doesn't believe in this team, that could be hugely detrimental.
What does that say about the leadership of the team if Diggs doesn't believe they care enough about winning? Will that cause Josh Allen, Micah Hyde, Jordan Poyer, Tre'Davious White, Matt Milano and Dion Dawkins to also not believe they can't? (Von Miller won't waiver in his belief in this team because he's a pro's pro, but his steady hand might not be enough if things get out of control). And what if Diggs start to loaf on the field? Are Gabe Davis, Khalil Shakir, Dawson Knox, free agent pickup Trent Sherfield and rookie Dalton Kincald strong enough as a group to make up for his contributions? This is a team on the ropes and if they don't get it together, they won't even come closing to sniffing a Super Bowl appearance.
Key to Reaching Their Ceiling: Sean McDermott Seamlessly Returning to Having Sole Responsibility for the Defense
Longtime DC Leslie Frazier taking a leave of absence from coaching has been such a non-story this offseason that most people outside of Upstate New York probably don't even know about it. Since Frazier is currently only expected to be away from the Bills from the season, McDermott decided to just scheme/call the defense himself. This makes complete sense since McDermott was likely already involved in the game-planning and back during his time as a DC with the Eagles and Panthers, consistently fielded some of the best defenses in the league.
Interim DC McDermott will certainly have his work cut out for him. Not only does he have to shake the rust off as he takes on primary defensive playcalling/gameplanning responsibilities for the 1st time since 2016, he has to try and fix some issues with a defense that isn't nearly as potent as their 2nd place finish in scoring defense a year ago would suggest. Their passing defense ranked 15th last year and they're effectively running it back (Tre'Davious White, Kaiir Elam and Taron Johnson at corner, Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer at safety )-except Hyde is now 32 going on 33 and coming off a massive neck injury that kept him for the final 4 months of the 2022 season and Taylor Rapp was brought in to patrol the box as a 3rd safety/serve as a potential injury replacement if/when Poyer gets dinged up for a few games. Their pass-rush that cratered once Von Miller went down with a torn ACL on Thanksgiving Day only brought in Leonard Floyd-who famously has only really excelled when playing next to elite talent while with the Bears and Rams, Poona Ford-who is a respectable yet not overly consistent interior pass-rusher that has never gotten more than 3 sacks in a season and Shane Ray-the oft-injured yet intermittently promising 2015 1st round pick of the Broncos who is attempting an NFL comeback after spending the past 2 seasons playing for the CFL's Toronto Argonauts- as reinforcements tasked with helping keep this ship afloat as Miller remains out indefinitely as he continues to rehab his knee at age 34. And last but certainly not least, Terrel Bernard-who logged 1 start and relatively infrequent playing time as a rookie-will have a lot on his plate as he steps into the starting inside linebacker role vacated by Tremaine Edmunds-who was quietly very good last season. Based on his X and O's knowledge and track record of getting the most out of every player that worked their way into the lineup, the McDermott of old would almost certainly fix all of these problems in short order. If the nuances of the gig return to him after many years of not having to engage with them, present day McDermott should do a fine job too.
Bottom Line:
While they're too talented to completely write-off, the mounting pressure surrounding them after yet another ugly playoff exit along with some deceptively big question marks surrounding their defense could mean that a bit of a regression is imminent.
Miami Dolphins
2023 Record: 9-8 (2nd in AFC East)
Head Coach: Mike McDaniel (2nd season)
Notable Additions: CB Jalen Ramsey, ILB David Long Jr., QB Mike White
Notable Departures: TE Mike Gesicki, CB Byron Jones, WR Trent Sherfield
Biggest Reason for Excitement: Hiring Vic Fangio as their Defensive Coordinator
Josh Boyer-a holdover from Brian Flores' staff-was fired as Dolphins DC in mid-January after a group that he once had in the top 10 in the league fell all the way down to the bottom half of the league in a number of important categories (24th in scoring defense, 26th in passing yards allowed, 30th in 3rd down defense, tied for 29th in takeaways) in 2022. Fair or not, when you underperform as a coordinator, you're likely to get fired-especially when the current head coach wasn't the one that hired you. Mike McDaniel had his eyes on a big fish (no pun intended) to replace Boyer and he was able to reel him in. The fish in question is none other than Vic Fangio.
In terms of impact coaching hires this offseason, this has the potential to be the biggest of all. During his 3 most recent stops with the 49ers, Bears and Broncos, Fangio was able to come in and radically transform the identity of their defenses overnight. He has this combination of knowing where to place guys in his scheme, a system that is aggressive and physical without being undisciplined or dumb and a level of respect for his players that encourages them to buy-in into his system that is just special. Considering this group's mix of established veteran talent (Christian Wilkins, Xavien Howard, Bradley Chubb, Jerome Baker, Emmanuel Ogbah, offseason pickups Jalen Ramsey and David Long Jr.) and promising young guys (Jaelan Phillips, Jevon Holland, Kader Kohou) who should really benefit from his coaching, this could prove to be an easier renaissance project than any of his other recent stops.
Biggest Reason for Concern: Tua Tagovailoa's Health
This is much more of an off-the-field concern than an on-the-field one. New backup Mike White has what it takes to adequately run their offense-which relies on getting the ball into the hands of Tyreek Hill or Jaylen Waddle in the short-to-intermediate passing game, not turning the ball over and the occasional RPO-without torpedoing the team if Tua Tagovailoa gets hurt. What happened to Tua last year was the most vivid example of the horrors that can occur when a head injury is sustained in football that we've seen in recent years. Opening himself up to more head trauma after (seemingly) suffering 3 concussions in about 3 months last season is a scary risk that's being powered by his love of the game. Let's hope for the sake of him and his family that his love of the game doesn't leave him with a permanent brain injury or worse.
Key to Reaching Their Ceiling: Their Defense Matching Their Offense
After last season, everybody knows what kind of magic this Dolphins offense is capable of. Hill and Waddle have the speed to burn people deep and the shiftiness to pick up YAC in a crowd or in the open field-which makes them among the most uniquely explosive playmaking receivers in the league, Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson Jr. are the types of backs that will rip off an 80-YD TD run when you least expect it and longtime Kyle Shanahan assistant Mike McDaniel proved in his 1st year on the job that his reputation in league circles as one of the brightest offensive minds in the league was well-earned. If Dalvin Cook makes his way to South Beach before the start of the season or rookie Devon Achane proves himself to be an explosive playmaker out of the backfield the way that he was at Texas A&M, they could be even scarier in 2023.
The secret to this team going from the bottom of the Wild Card Race to the top of the hierarchy lies in their ability to keep points off the board, not put them on. Between the Bengals, Chiefs, Chargers, Ravens, Jaguars, the 3 teams in their division and some wild card option that will emerge out of nowhere during the season, there is a silly amount of offensive firepower in the AFC right now. Their difficulties in coverage and getting off the field on 3rd down killed them just as much as their QB injuries did last season and that's precisely why they brought in Fangio, Ramsey and Long Jr. to spearhead their defensive overhaul. How successful these efforts are will determine just how far they go when the games start to really matter and the teams who can make stops late pull out the wins more often than not.
Bottom Line:
If Tua can stay healthy and Fangio can radically and rapidly transform the defense like he has in his previous 3 jobs, the Dolphins should immediately work their way into the top-tier of AFC contenders.
New England Patriots
2023 Record: 8-9 (3rd in AFC East)
Head Coach: Bill Belichick (24th season)
Notable Additions: WR JuJu Smith-Schuster, TE Mike Gesicki, T Riley Reiff
Notable Departures: S Devin McCourty (retired), WR Jakobi Meyers, RB Damien Harris
Biggest Reason for Excitement: They're Going to Be Running an NFL Offense!
Bad news high school football coaches: You won't see an offense that looks like the one you run on Sundays anymore. After an awful season full of universal criticism from the talking heads on ESPN all the way down to the locker room at 1 Patriot Place and the strong likelihood of Robert Kraft forcing his hand, Bill Belichick removed his old friend Matt Patricia from his offensive coordinator post. We'll always have that cool Marcus Jones TD run against the Bills Matt.
Replacing Patricia is Bill O'Brien-who is wait for it... an offensive coach by trade!!!! Look at Belichick thinking outside of the box and hiring a guy who is actually qualified for the job. O'Brien previously served as Pats OC after Josh McDaniels departed to coach the Broncos in 2009 and served in the role for 3 years before leaving to become the Penn State HC in 2012. Much can be made of O'Brien's middle-of-the-pack offenses during his stint with the Texans and all of the backlash he got at Alabama for "ruining" their offense over the past 2 seasons, but he runs a system that most of the players on this offense are familiar with and had success with under McDaniels in 2021, which is great news for all parties involved.
The other portion of the Patricia exit that deserves to be celebrated/pointed out more is that he also served as offensive line coach last season. While their play never imploded quite like the broader offense did, it became apparent pretty quickly that veteran center David Andrews and assistant offensive line coach Billy Yates-who will return to the post this season-were doing more of the coaching than Patricia was on a weekly basis. Patricia is being replaced by Adrian Klemm-who ironically was part of Belichick's inaugural Patriots draft class in 200. Klemm rehabbed his reputation with a strong campaign at the University of Oregon last year that earned him interest from several NFL teams after getting dumped by the Steelers following just 1 season as their offensive line coach. What went wrong with the Steelers in 2021 is definitely cause for some concern, but again, he at least understands the position far better than Patricia did and should be able to get their rookie depth pieces (Sidy Sow, Jake Andrews, Atonio Malfi) acclimated to the pros and give 2022 1st round pick Cole Strange the coaching he failed to receive during his rough rookie campaign.
Biggest Reason for Concern: Not Having the Talent to Keep Up with the Powerhouse in Their Division
Up here in Massachusetts, fans and sports media people have been lusting over DeAndre Hopkins and Dalvin Cook for months now. There's such a profound lack of sexiness among their offensive arsenal right now that people will entertain any available big name in the hopes of adding some sizzle to their ranks. While expecting Hopkins and Cook to be offense-changing gamebreakers at this stage of his career isn't exactly the most reasonable thing in the world, Pats fans are right to want more talent for their team given their current status as a middler that is too talented to tank, but not good enough to contend with the big dogs.
Their receiving corps is in flux yet again as they're relying on Kendrick Bourne to bounce back from an awful 2022 campaign where he barley saw the field and inside/outside threat JuJu Smith-Schuster-who is coming off a nice bounceback campaign with the Chiefs last season, but missed the entire mandatory offseason program due to an injury he suffered in the spring and has yet to workout with Mac Jones-to seamlessly replace the unexciting but always reliable Jakobi Meyers-who had a terrific rapport with Jones, DeVante Parker to be a #2 WR despite the increasingly hard time he's having with separating from defensive backs and asking 2022 2nd round pick Tyquan Thornton to really do anything at all after a rookie campaign where he cleared 37 YDS just once and caught just 2 TD's in 13 games played. The famously slightly above average Mike Gesicki will be slotting into the 2nd tight end role alongside Hunter Henry that was vacated by failed free agent signing/money laundering God Jonnu Smith-which feels like an O'Brien move since he recruited the kid to Penn State, but left for the Texans before he could coach him and the kid doesn't meet the Belichick standards for tight end since he was arguably the worst blocker at the position in the league right up until the moment this morning that it was announced that Jimmy Graham was attempting to make a comeback with the Saints. Even the offensive line is kind of shaky since they're seemingly relying on the famously unreliable Trent Brown to lock down the left tackle spot and newly-signed, pretty unremarkable vets Riley Reiff and Calvin Anderson to provide the reliable presence on the right side that they lacked for much of last year. Rhamondre Stevenson is the closest thing they have to a star right now and he's an old-school power back that needs to come off the field in most passing situations and barely cleared 1,000 rushing YDS last season. Now, imagine you're a Pats fan putting this group next to the Chiefs, Bengals or any of the other teams in the division and try not to feel immediately deflated and sick.
Their defense isn't immune to these question marks either. In a division that boasts Diggs, Hill, Waddle and Wilson among its WR ranks, do the Patriots have a guy that's capable of covering a top WR (rookie Christian Gonzalez has the physical tools and a strong track record as a top corner in college, but not every rookie corner can be Sauce Gardner or Patrick Surtain II and seamlessly handle any assignment thrown at them right away)? Is their front 7 athletic enough to handle the speed of the modern NFL? Can a raw rookie in Keion White step up and contribute right away as a pass-rusher if Matthew Judon, Josh Uche or Deatrich Wise Jr gets hurt? They have the toughest schedule in the league on paper this season, so we should have a pretty good idea of whether they're talented enough to compete when it's all said and done.
Key to Reaching Their Ceiling: Mac Jones Getting Back on Track
After a promising rookie campaign, Jones spent his sophomore season playing with an arm tied behind his back as he had to deal with the ineptitude of Patricia calling the plays and installing an offense that was completely unlike the one he ran under McDaniels in 2021. Fortunately, he'll be returning to the system that made him the most productive rookie QB in football during 2021 now that O'Brien is running the offense. During that season, Jones was pretty consistently comfortable in the pocket, quick with his decisions and accurate everywhere except deep downfield. That's the player he was billed to be coming out of Alabama and that's the player that he can be for 10+ years in the pros if he's in an offense that plays to those strengths. If re-implementing a system that's proven it works for him can get Jones back to the level of competence, the Patriots should be able to improve on their 7-10 campaign from a year ago with relative ease.
Bottom Line:
As great as Bill O'Brien's presence will be there for the functionality of their entire operation, the Patriots don't appear to have the offensive talent to compete in the toughest division in an increasingly competitive conference.
New York Jets
2023 Record: 7-10 (4th in AFC East)
Head Coach: Robert Saleh (3rd season)
Notable Additions: QB Aaron Rodgers, WR Allen Lazard, S Adrian Amos
Notable Departures: DT Sheldon Rankins, QB Mike White, S Lamarcus Joyner
Biggest Reason for Excitement: Aaron Rodgers
The Jets were a quarterback away from making playoffs last year. To be completely honestly, they probably could've made the playoffs if Breece Hall-who was downright lethal when he was on the field (681 scrimmage YDS, 5 total TD's and 5.8 YPC in only 7 games) and Alijah Vera-Tucker and Max Mitchell didn't get hurt. Their defense was the best in the league by a wide margin and they just needed to get 17-20 points per game to win most weeks and more often that not, that was too damn much to ask out of offenses led by Mike White and Zach Wilson-who looked completely lost and unqualified to start nearly every time he stepped back to throw-that had horrid offense line play and no running game to speak of once Hall went down.
Given the pressure the organization is feeling to win now given how loaded most of their roster is and just how alarmingly terrible Wilson has been over the past 2 years, the Jets went out and landed Aaron Rodgers via trade in April. Considering what the Jets have dealt with at this position of late, Rodgers' arrival feels like a godsend. Not only is the guy a real quarterback, he's a future Hall-of-Famer with a room full of MVP trophies and some of the most staggering natural ability the league has ever seen at the position. They went from a busted-up sedan to a sports car that may have a ton of miles, but can still win a damn race at the most important position in the sport. When you factor in that they'll have the reigning Offensive Rookie of the Year Garrett Wilson, a potential dual-threat star RB in Hall and an ascending pass-catching TE in Tyler Conklin alongside him, it's hard not to get excited about what having Rodgers could mean for the team.
Biggest Reason for Concern: The Offensive Line
Offensive line has been a house of horrors of late for the Jets. 2020 1st round pick Mekhi Becton has had his entire career derailed by injuries, everybody, the majority of the guys they've signed in free agency of late have underwhelmed big time (Laken Tomlinson, Duane Brown, George Fant-who wasn't re-signed after his contract expired at the end of last season) and young bright spots like Alijah Vera-Tucker and Max Mitchell both missed extensive time with massive injuries last season. So what did the Jets do to solve this potentially crippling problem this offseason? Well, not much at all.
They were angling to draft a new anchor at left tackle given that Becton is entering the final year of his rookie deal this season, 2022 starter Brown is turning 38 at the end of August and they lacked the necessary cap space to make a run at top available players such as Orlando Brown Jr and Mike McGlinchey in free agency.
On draft night, a truly absurd scenario unfolded that promptly thwarted this plan. After swapping first round picks with the Packers in the Rodgers trade, the Jets slid back from #13 to #15. Sitting at #14 happened to be #1 Jets hater Bill Belichick-who gladly jumped at the opportunity to trade back in order to allow the tackle-needy Steelers to jump ahead of them and select University of Georgia tackle Broderick Jones-who was widely believed to be the last "elite" tackle prospect available. GM Joe Douglas clearly wasn't a fan of top remaining tackle Anton Harrison-who ended up being selected by the Jaguars at #27-and ended up pivoting to the luxury selection of edge rusher Will McDonald IV instead.
Their addressing of the o-line came with their next two picks in the Draft in the form of center/guard Joe Tippmann and tackle Carter Warren and through some post-Draft free agent dumpster diving pickups in tackles Billy Turner and Yodney Cajuste. Tippmann is a high-floor prospect who was among the best and most durable interior lineman in football during his time at Wisconsin, but the other guys don't seem likely to play much this season as Warren is a super raw athlete who hasn't figured out the nuances of the position quite yet, Turner is a below average journeyman with no real standout traits beyond his inside/outside versatility who happens to be on his 3rd team in the past 3 years and Cajuste is somebody who struggled to get onto field with the Patriots over the past 4 seasons until a slew of injuries forced their hand over the past 2 seasons and when he played, he was shaky at best.
After all the dust has settled, their current projected starting lineup is Brown (left tackle), Vera-Tucker (left guard), Tippmann (center), Tomlinson (right guard) and Becton (right tackle). That group-particularly at tackle-is awfully shaky to be tasked with protecting a 39-old QB. Durability is a massive concern for Becton as he's played in only 1 game since December 2020, trotting out Brown at left tackle after all of the beatdowns he took last year just seems like an unnecessary bad idea when a 2nd year player in Mitchell who flashed at right tackle last season is currently sitting on the bench and Tomlinson struggled so mightily last season out of nowhere that it wouldn't be absurd to question whether or not he's in the early stages of a career-killing tailspin. Rodgers lived a pretty charmed existence with the quality of his offensive lines during his time in Green Bay, even in recent years when they had some relatively rough patches with David Bakhtiari on the shelf ,and dealing with a group that is so unsettled could really break his spirit, or worse, one of his bones.
Key to Reaching Their Ceiling: An Engaged Aaron Rodgers
As he hurdles towards his 40th birthday in December, it would be hard to argue that Rodgers has showed his age yet. Sure, 2022 was a down year for him after his back-to-back MVP seasons in 2020 and 2021, but he still played perfectly solid, respectable football as the Packers fell just shy of the final NFC Wild Card spot following their Week 18 loss to the Lions. Will Rodgers suddenly undergo a massive physical decline this season? Not likely as he didn't get hurt last year and was throwing with the ball with plenty of zip and touch throughout the year. However, he is the kind of guy that could decide to turn on the old autopilot now that the end of his career is on the horizon. Rodgers has made an obscene amount of money that will get considerably larger if the 2024 option on the deal he signed last season is triggered that will pay him up to $50 million and his dedication to winning is uh, questionable-especially in recent years as he seems more interested in discussing conspiracy theories, doing psychedelic drugs and darkness retreats than playing football.
Now, there is one reason to believe that Rodgers could go in the complete opposite direction and put together an elite season: The powerful force of pettiness. Rodgers loves drama and acting like he's being persecuted and he could absolutely find a way to spin his public demand to be traded from the Packers as this great revenge tale where he gets back at the team that did him wrong, which is particularly hard to believe since his new team gave him the "control" over who he wanted to play with that they allegedly refused him for all of these years and all he did with it was bring over some of his buddies from Green Bay (Allen Lazard, Randall Cobb, Adrian Amos). Manufactured or not, that motivation could be strong enough to power him to another MVP-caliber season and if that happens, look out because the Jets might actually be able to get back to the AFC Championship Game before Rodgers does his signature playoff disappearing act.
Bottom Line:
Despite all the signs pointing to the Jets being serious contenders this year, I refuse to take the cheese on them. High expectations and Aaron Rodgers entering his age 40 season in a hostile media market alongside a mostly super young roster and hardo coach who will get shitcanned if they underachieve feels like the makings of yet another tragic Jets season.
Predicted Standings:
1.Miami Dolphins (13-4)
2.Buffalo Bills (11-6)
3.New England Patriots (9-8)
4.New York Jets (7-10)
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